Carney Lied - Zero clue how to deal with Trump on trade!
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Summary
In this episode, Wyatt talks about the failure of the Canadian government to reach a trade deal with the US, and how it's a good thing Donald Trump doesn't like Canada. Also, he talks about why Canada should have been able to get a deal in place by July 21st.
Transcript
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Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. So it is now a verifiable fact that Liberal Prime Minister
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Mark Carney does not know how to deal with men like Donald Trump. He claimed it during
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the Liberal Party leadership race. He said it over and over again during the federal
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election. But as I sit here now, it is August 2nd, and we were supposed to have a trade
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deal by actually Mark Carney's own deadline of July 21st. But we were really supposed
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to have it by Donald Trump's deadline of August 1st. And it is the day after August 1st,
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and we do not have a trade deal. And yes, the legacy media in Canada and the Liberal government
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will say that, well, acting like there was ever going to be a possibility of a trade deal
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is laughable because Donald Trump can't be trusted and he, you know, doesn't like Canada
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and he wants to tariff us and that was his end goal. Okay, maybe that's true. But the
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Liberal scuffed the negotiation so bad, you can never prove that because we did every
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single thing wrong. I'm really tired of constantly hearing that whenever we do stuff wrong, well,
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they would have done it anyways. You know, the Americans would have just rejected anything
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we said anyways. So what's the point? Okay, well, that's a great attitude to have when you
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keep screwing things up. I screwed things up, but the other guy would have also screwed it
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up. So it was actually okay for me to screw it up. We tried to implement the digital services tax
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during the negotiations. Negotiations where presumably our goal is to actually get to
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basically near or zero tariffs. And we put in place what is effectively a 3% higher corporate tax rate
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on American tech firms operating within Canada. Yes, it also applies to Canadian firms, but other than
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Shopify, there's not many big Canadian tech firms that this new tax applies to. It mostly is applying
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to Google, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, stuff like that, Uber, and these are American firms. So naturally,
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the American government protested. And by the way, do you know which American government protested?
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Both Joe Biden's Democratic administration, as well as now Donald Trump's Republican
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administration. This is bipartisan in the US. You had people like Hakeem Jeffries coming out to go
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after the digital services tax. It was a really stupid thing for us to do in the middle of negotiations.
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You can pretend. You can sit there and say, that's a Canadian domestic matter. Why does the US care?
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Well, it affects their companies. And by the way, the world is not a vacuum where we can go out there and
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we can interact with the world. But as soon as we do things, people aren't supposed to mention it
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because we constantly critique other countries. We constantly criticize the United States. We
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criticize Israel. We criticize, like, Hungary. We do that constantly as a country with a liberal
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government. But as soon as the US has an opinion about one of our policies, something that actually
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affects them, not like the Canadian government giving travel advisory warnings to gay Canadians,
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telling them not to go to the US because something bad might happen. They can never define because
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nothing's going to happen to you. We keep doing stuff with that. But when they weighed in on our
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digital services tax, what's with the US trying to interfere in our domestic policy? It's not. It
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affects them too. So they're going to have an opinion about it, especially when you're trying to sign a
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trade deal with them. And then Parks Canada and municipalities all around Canada started pulling
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permits for Sean Foyt, that US musician trying to do a tour. Yeah, that was a good look. And then instead of
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actually, you know, taking the trade negotiation seriously, putting things on the table to trade for
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a better deal, or even trying to play hardball, making some economic threats, we instead recognize
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the terror state of Palestine. And yeah, it's a terror state. When Palestine is being run in the Gaza
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Strip by Hamas, and in the West Bank by the Palestinian Authority, whose military arm is a terrorist
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group known as FATA, yeah, it's a terrorist state. So we wasted our resources, our political capital
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on that, rather than trying to sign a trade deal. And again, you constantly have people saying,
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well, why? It's a domestic matter. It's Canada's foreign policy. Why can the US say something about
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that? Well, we're trying to try and sign a trade deal with them, idiot. Obviously, they're going to
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have some issues with things that we do, because we're now in a relationship. We are in a trade
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relationship, which means that you may have a little bit of something to say about how the
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other country is conducting itself, especially when the US pays for the vast majority of Canada's
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security costs as a country, in terms of like military spending. Yeah, they are going to have
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a problem with Canada waiting in on a topic of interest where the US and Israel are doing all the
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heavy lifting. We constantly as allies, frag the US and frag Israel rhetorically over the dumbest stuff
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that's not even true. And then they have to just deal with it, I guess. I'm actually very happy with
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the Conservative Party right now, because I got the impression over time that they were not going to
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attack Carney for being incompetent on the trade negotiations, that they were going to sit back
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and say nothing because people are going to think you're like a mega Republican if you criticize them.
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But it's totally fair to say that the guy lied. He doesn't know how to deal with Trump.
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They posted this clip a couple hours ago with a quizzical emoji above it.
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You can handle him. We can handle him. We are going to handle him. We are going to handle him.
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We can handle him. We can handle Donald Trump. That's what he misses. And I'm going to go into that.
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Can they handle them, though? That's kind of the problem. And I want to go into the polling with you guys.
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I know there's a lot of people saying that or there's a lot of polls out there showing that Canadians
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are actually totally fine with the way that Mark Carney dealt with this. Are they? Are they, though?
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Yeah, you're going to have a lot of liberals who are going to default to just blaming Donald Trump
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for anything that happens. And yeah, in the short run, you're going to have a lot of people have a bit
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of a rally around the flag moment that, oh, my goodness, Trump implemented tariffs on us. We love Carney now.
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But in the long run, as the economic pain settles in, people are going to stop liking it so much.
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They're not going to be as cool with the idea that we're elbows up when we're all paying higher prices
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for things that verifiably the Mark Carney government messed up on, like not putting supply management
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on the table one bit when it came to trade negotiations, a policy that isn't even good
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for our own economy. We were defending to the hilt rather than trying to get a trade deal sign that
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would save the country on a macro scale way more money than defending supply management, which in
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fact hampers the agricultural industries of many provinces. This is from a CBC article that was
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entitled, Trump didn't chicken out, so what's Canada's next move? And it's not an awful article for
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the CBC, but I think there is one thing in here that just gets under my skin because it is basically
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repeating an untruth, pretending like it actually doesn't matter too much that tariffs were implemented
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on us. But check this out. While there's no way that Canada can characterize what happened as a win,
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there's plenty of evidence that it's not a reason for Prime Minister Mark Carney's government to panic
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and do something that jeopardizes what really matters for Canadian economy, tariff-free access to the
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U.S. for the vast majority of exports. And then they basically go on to basically say it doesn't
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really matter that we're being tariff, saying different economists have slightly different
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estimates, but even with the increase Trump announced Thursday night, there is a consensus
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that the effective tariff rate for Canada is down to the single digits, noticeably lower than the
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tariff rate for any other major trading partner. That's because despite Trump bluster, he's allowing
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the vast majority of Canadian exports into the country with zero tariff under the terms of the
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Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade agreement. I always just call it USMCA because it's easier to say than
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KUSMA or whatever there. But it's not true that this is like a zero-cost proposition for Canada
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because in order to fall in line with USMCA regulations so that no tariff is applied to you,
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there is a higher burden of cost in order to follow those regulations. You have to source all your
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materials within Canada, the US or Mexico for what you're shipping into the United States. Most of
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the labor has to be done within North America in order to actually pass. And then there is way more
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documentation, way more paperwork that needs to be done. For large companies even, this is actually
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costing them probably millions more dollars a year to be able to actually ship things into the United
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States tariff-free. And so, yes, are they avoiding the tariff? Sure, but they're also having to pay
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more in order to make these goods following the regulations in order to avoid the tariff. So even
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when companies are avoiding the tariff, they're running into higher regulatory costs because you can
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no longer ship in the cotton or wool to make something from New Zealand or from Egypt or from Vietnam.
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You now have to be getting it from Canada and manufacturing it in Canada to send a t-shirt
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into the United States without having a tariff applied to it. Now, we don't do the most t-shirt
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manufacturing in Canada. It's just an example. Way more stuff has to be done in Canada. So the cost
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goes up in order just to avoid the tariffs. Is it worthwhile? Well, definitely because back in 2024,
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only about 35% of companies even bothered trying to be USMCA compliant because the tariff rate on,
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if you weren't, was like 3% to 4%. It wasn't too bad. So basically, we already know that following
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the regulations was not worth avoiding a 3%, 5% tariff. But now that it's 35%, it is worth it.
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So we know at the very least the cost of following these regulations are more than 5% on the cost of
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these goods. So yes, we aren't being hit by a 35% tariff on 100% of our goods. Nobody assumed that
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was going to happen, but it is going to hurt. And things hurting around the margins in Canada
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is devastating at this point because our economy wasn't good to begin with. We have more than 10% of
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the population of the United States, but our economy has less than 10% of the power of the US's economy.
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So yeah, it's not great for us to even be experiencing 3%, 4%, 5% higher costs. This
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already wipes out the middle class tax savings that Mark Carney handed out, which was reducing
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the tax rate under $50,000 by a single percentage, which is not great considering within the $50,000
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tax bracket, you're already not paying any tax on the first $18,000. So the average person is only
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saving like as little as $200 a year with that tax cut. It's really, really pathetic.
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But anyways, now I just want to talk a little bit about the stats on what Canadians are thinking
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about this. It's all rather silly in the sense that, again, there's this rally around the flag
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thing that's happening right now that we will talk about, and I think it's a bit delusional.
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So this first question I want to talk about is, would you prefer to see Canada take a hard or soft
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approach to trade negotiations with the US? Hard is refuse concessions, even if it makes the
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relationship worse. Refuse concessions is such a stupid thing. Really, we're going to refuse
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concessions. That's not how a negotiation works. Sometimes you have to concede, and then you gain
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a little bit by conceding this thing, and they concede that thing. But right now, 69% of people say
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that we should take the hard approach and refuse concessions. Only 31% say, make concessions to
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keep a good relationship. Although I can see in a month's time, if costs are going up, if people
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realize their grocery bill, rather than let's just say, $200 has now gone up to $208 or $210,
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you are going to start to get people saying like, oh, maybe we should concede because that's only $10 at
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the grocery store now. But it's also a little bit more on this product and that product. And
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I already only had a little bit of money left at the end of the year. And now I basically have
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nothing. Let's get to a different question here. Canada should respond to American tariffs with
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counter tariffs equal to whatever the US imposes, 59%. Counter tariffs less than what the US imposes,
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8%. No counter tariffs, 18%. Unsure, 16%. This one, when it comes to trade deal with the United States,
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how should Canada approach negotiations? Focus on the best deal available regardless of whether
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there are tariffs or not, 68%. Accept only agreement with no tariffs, 20%. Unsure, 12%. I would actually
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agree with saying we should accept an agreement with no tariffs. But in order to get there, you have to
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be willing to take things like supply management away. Because this is the problem with how people
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are thinking right now. And this is right now the party breakdown on the Palestine issue. Should we
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basically stop recognizing Palestine because it annoys Donald Trump? Right now with conservatives,
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45%, we say we should reverse decision. And then 32% say we should stick to it, 22% being unsure.
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With liberals, 85% thinks we should stick to it. Only 4% thinks we should back off of it. That is
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delusional. We are going to stick to recognizing a terrorist state because it annoys Donald Trump.
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Apparently, stupid decisions are okay if it annoys Donald Trump. But here's another thing. I just
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want to get back to that other question I was looking at before. I actually favor getting to
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no tariffs. But to do that, you have to get rid of supply management. Because guess what? Supply
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management comes with massive tariffs on the US dairy and poultry industry. So we can't act
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self-righteous and be like, why is the US putting tariffs on us? We've had tariffs on them since the
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70s. What are you talking about? We've always had tariffs on them. This isn't something new. We
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didn't do this in response. They responded to us. Disproportionately? Maybe. But that's how you get
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people discussing things at the table. And even then, Trump still has the USMCA agreement in place,
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allowing us to escape a lot of them. You could always soften on that. You could always just take
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away a lot of the exemptions and then make it so that even USMCA products are paying 5% or 10%.
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You could easily do that. Oh, that would be violating a trade agreement. Well, they're more
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powerful than us. So what are you talking about? It's just reality. I love Canada. I want Canada to
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succeed. But I'm not going to pretend that we can just like elbows up them to death. We're just going
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to stick our elbows in the air. And that's how we're going to win. There's so many people right
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now, including the Liberal Party, just trying to have to talk their way through this, because it's
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not a good luck. Mark Carney and the Liberals have not put a statement out about it. And all the
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Liberal orbiters online of Mark Carney just talking about how great he is, how amazing of a leader
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he is. He's so intelligent. Would an intelligent guy have gotten us into this position? Or would
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if he have leveraged his actual meetings with Donald Trump in person to basically on camera say, I think
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in the next month, we should be getting to zero tariffs because we're the best of allies. He really
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wasted his time with Donald Trump in the Oval Office. He kind of let just Donald Trump talk and just
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said a few mild things about the relationship between Canada and the US being important. And
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that was it. I would have used the moment, if you're going to play hardball, use the moment right
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there in front of the press to start talking about Trump about how we need to get rid of tariffs,
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because this shouldn't really be a midterm election issue. So let's get to zero tariffs,
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100%. Anyways, that should be it for me today, guys. Anyways, make sure to like the video,
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subscribe to the channel, do all that great stuff. Sorry that I'm not in my usual setup. If I had it,
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I would definitely be talking about the stats on the whiteboard. But alas, I am not in Canada at
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the moment, but I will be back soon. But other than that, I will see you guys later.