The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Carney Majority At Risk - Liberals MP wants to LEAVE but They Won't Let Him!

00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here, and welcome back to the National Telegraph YouTube channel.

00:00:06.620 There is some very messy and complicated drama going on right now in federal liberal and

00:00:12.760 Ontario liberal politics. I've been making a prediction for quite a while that liberal

00:00:19.000 MP for Beaches East York, Nate Erskine-Smith, is going to resign from office in order to go

00:00:25.560 into Ontario Liberal politics and potentially become the next leader of the Ontario Liberal

00:00:31.420 Party. And this is creating a lot of friction, not only inside of the Ontario Liberal Party that

00:00:37.640 doesn't look like it actually wants him, at least from the elite establishment level of that party,

00:00:43.360 but Mark Carney also doesn't exactly want him to leave federal politics because he has an

00:00:48.720 extremely thin majority right now. But in this video, I want to take you guys through all of

00:00:55.000 the complicated draw, potentially a nomination race being rigged against Nate Erskine-Smith,

00:01:00.900 and Nate's very bitter demeanor when being asked questions about what is going on right now

00:01:06.200 in the Scarborough Southwest by-election that he is pursuing a liberal nomination for.

00:01:11.800 But before I get into it all, I just want to remind you guys, if you like the show,

00:01:16.060 make sure to leave a like on this video, subscribe if you are not yet a subscriber,

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00:01:35.820 It really does make making operating the channel far easier for me.

00:01:40.620 Anyways, I am going to make the insertion point on this story.

00:01:45.260 This headline from the Globe and Mail.

00:01:47.740 this just came out earlier today or i believe yesterday and it says erskine smith's campaign

00:01:54.460 pushes back on ontario liberal membership rejections so in this article it is basically

00:02:02.460 described that the ontario liberal party seems to be trying to block erskine smith from leaving

00:02:09.340 federal politics to get involved in ontario provincial politics now erskine smith doesn't

00:02:15.580 specifically live in the Rhine of Scarborough Southwest. Obviously, he lives in York, where

00:02:20.660 he's the MP for Beaches East York, but he's still very popular. So what the Ontario Liberals have

00:02:27.140 done is they rejected 1,800 memberships that were sold in the course of this nomination, which

00:02:34.240 the implication is, is that they mostly skew against Erskine Smith. Many of them are probably

00:02:40.300 Erskine Smith signups that they just got rid of. And this seems to be being done in favor of Navdeep

00:02:47.120 Baines, who is not running in this nomination, but has allies in the nomination. And they are

00:02:52.840 trying to prevent Erskine Smith from winning the nomination, because if he does, he's very likely

00:02:57.680 to become the new MPP for Cerberus Southwest provincially. And then he will have set himself

00:03:03.880 up very nicely to take another run on the Ontario provincial party's leadership. He had

00:03:10.260 previously run for leader of the Ontario Liberal Party and come in second place to Bonnie Henry,

00:03:17.080 who then later went on to lose to Doug Ford in the provincial election. And so now Nate is trying

00:03:22.500 to better set himself up for a run at leader again by first getting into the Ontario legislature.

00:03:28.920 But Navdeep Bains wants to become the former corrupt liberal minister of something. I forget.

00:03:34.820 They were both federal liberal colleagues at one point, but Navdeep Bains is famously corrupt.

00:03:41.080 The guy will steal anything but a red hot stove, and he just recently started winding down another job he has to run for Ontario, a liberal leader.

00:03:51.540 And now the Ontario Liberal Party, who is very friendly to Navdeep Bains, is putting up a wall in front of Erskine Smith.

00:03:58.480 But I don't think that is the only motivation to try and block Erskine Smith from leaving federal politics. I think Prime Minister Mark Carney and his liberal government have a very keen interest in making sure that Nate's foray into liberal politics in Ontario fails.

00:04:16.500 And so they are trying to also, or at least they're supporting what is going on to screw Nate Erskine-Smith in the nomination. We don't need to go into all the names involved in that nomination and whatnot. Erskine-Smith probably still has a good chance of winning it and then getting into Ontario politics.

00:04:34.720 But again, there is a lot of kind of friction going on in the liberal world right now because Carney does not want his majority affected.

00:04:45.760 And so he probably has a very, you know, probably there is a lot going on in that liberal nomination to help Carney not have to go find another liberal MP for Beaches East York.

00:04:58.180 Because in Beaches East York, Avi Lewis, as we've seen in previous video, could win that riding in a by-election. The new leader of the NDP, despite being from British Columbia, actually polls very well in that very, very progressive riding of Beaches East York.

00:05:15.820 But now I want to take you guys in to this clip of Erskine Smith speaking in the halls of parliament

00:05:21.180 with reporters asking him about what's going on in his nomination right now

00:05:26.860 and what he's going to do if he doesn't actually win it.

00:05:29.800 Workers' rights around pay and workers' rights around protection.

00:05:33.120 Thank you so much.

00:05:34.980 Great.

00:05:35.480 We've got a great team on the ground, and thanks everyone very well.

00:05:38.220 And what happens for you if you jump into the election and you're in your show?

00:05:42.280 I haven't thought that far.

00:05:43.440 I'm thinking about Saturday and just all the conversations I've got to have between now and then.

00:05:46.820 And look, there have been obstacles in the race, obviously, but I'm feeling good about it.

00:05:51.480 And we're going to overcome those obstacles and we're going to be successful.

00:05:53.900 Do you think you are making enough of a pitch that you are from the community?

00:05:56.860 Because that seems to be what your opponents are saying, that you're not from Scarborough.

00:06:00.000 I am not overly distracted by what opponents will say.

00:06:03.040 It's politics.

00:06:03.680 I've lived through politics for the last decade.

00:06:07.200 Look, people are pretending that, you know,

00:06:10.480 Beaches East York is a million miles away from Scarborough Southwest.

00:06:13.120 I can walk to Scarborough Southwest from my house pretty quickly.

00:06:17.160 It's actually been really nice.

00:06:18.300 I mean, I'm meeting new people, obviously, through this nomination process.

00:06:21.420 And that's been great and really working to earn support of folks on the ground.

00:06:24.480 We've got a great Scarborough team.

00:06:25.780 I'm also reconnecting with so many people, people I went to high school with,

00:06:28.140 people that are former constituents, people that know me.

00:06:30.880 I'll use an example.

00:06:31.820 Julie is a former nurse.

00:06:33.020 She reached out to me proactively.

00:06:34.080 She knows me from my advocacy for the Fallon family after the Danforth shooting.

00:06:37.120 And she reached out as a former nurse.

00:06:38.520 I've got a hallway health care story I want you to share.

00:06:40.400 I want you to be my MPP.

00:06:41.600 I want you to be my premier.

00:06:42.820 So those are the conversations that I've been having.

00:06:45.380 Can you guys get the impression that Erskine Smith is a little bit bothered and antsy in this video?

00:06:52.140 We're going to, as you keep watching, you're going to start seeing the bitterness start to come out against the federal liberal government.

00:06:59.000 Because this is the part of the story that has not been yet said.

00:07:03.600 Erskine Smith was supposed to be the housing minister.

00:07:07.680 You'll know that the current housing minister is Liberal MP Gregor Roberts,

00:07:12.380 who is also the former very terrible mayor of Vancouver.

00:07:15.880 In fact, you couldn't probably pick a worse person to be the housing minister than Gregor Robertson

00:07:21.120 because he did such a terrible job on housing when he was the mayor of Vancouver,

00:07:25.780 helping massively balloon the prices of housing from his really bad zoning regulations.

00:07:31.300 And Erskine Smith technically was the housing minister

00:07:34.620 when Carney had first become liberal leader, he enticed Erskine Smith to run again for the

00:07:40.680 federal liberals because he was originally just going to exit and go into provincial politics

00:07:44.720 right away instead. Instead, in the early stages of 2025, when Carney was running from the federal

00:07:53.860 liberal leadership, he got Erskine Smith's endorsement under the impression that he was

00:07:58.680 going to be housing minister. He was housing minister for two months. After the federal

00:08:03.640 election he was then replaced by that moron gregor robertson and he's had a chip on his shoulder 0.99

00:08:08.600 ever since and you'll remember during like the air can uh uh flight attendants protests and during 0.97

00:08:16.280 some other issues that were bad for mark carney urskine smith actually spoke out against the

00:08:21.640 liberal government because he was trying to signal how i guess upset he was at the time from being

00:08:26.440 snubbed for his position that he once held overwhelmingly um and uh and look we're there

00:08:32.040 There are communities that I'm less familiar with.

00:08:34.060 I'm going to work relentlessly to serve them.

00:08:36.140 And no MP gets elected and knows every single part of their riding.

00:08:40.020 But I've got a pretty good head start.

00:08:41.520 I grew up playing baseball for Scarborough, for Birchmount, and I know the community pretty well.

00:08:45.820 When you think of the team, though, the fact that your opponents are seemingly trying to stack the deck against you,

00:08:50.540 are you concerned that it's equal to the party in general or some people call the party that want you to help?

00:08:55.880 I'm not so concerned about that.

00:08:57.240 You know, look, there have been consent report, if you couldn't hear that,

00:08:59.840 he's saying, aren't you concerned that the party seems to be stacking the deck against you?

00:09:03.760 Obviously, he is bothered. And it's not probably just the Ontario Liberals trying to stack the

00:09:08.380 deck against him. It's probably Carney and his allies in the Ontario Liberal Party trying to

00:09:12.960 stack the deck against Nate to basically hold the man hostage. Navdeep Baines wants to be Ontario

00:09:18.060 Liberal leader. He's more liked by the establishment of that provincial party. And Navdeep is also a

00:09:23.940 federal liberal insider so wouldn't it be great for both nate and navdeep that erskine smith or

00:09:31.140 it would be great for both mark carney and navdeep baines that nate erskine smith is screwed over in

00:09:35.640 this nomination i wonder what happens if he loses if he's actually going to stick around in the

00:09:40.680 liberal party knowing that he's surrounded by people who were betting against him in this foray

00:09:45.040 into provincial politics sir and obviously i was at an event where there were three paid staff

00:09:50.440 Ontario Liberal-paid staff that were supporting my main opponent.

00:09:53.620 That's concerning.

00:09:54.560 There are hundreds of members that have been allowed.

00:09:55.940 That's concerning.

00:09:56.600 But look, we're going to overcome these obstacles.

00:09:59.240 These are just obstacles.

00:10:00.280 We will overcome them.

00:10:01.040 We will deliver change across Ontario, and we will deliver change in the Ontario Liberal Party.

00:10:04.220 If you can, you still run for the leadership if you don't win this nominator.

00:10:08.180 Again, we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.

00:10:11.220 Someone asked him if he's even going to bother running for Ontario Liberal leadership

00:10:14.740 if he doesn't end up winning the nomination for the by-election.

00:10:17.760 it won't on the math but i i mean i i obviously look i know that person asked him what would

00:10:28.960 what's he gonna do uh what like is he still willing to step down and run in ontario liberal

00:10:35.700 politics if it's going to put carney's majority at risk and he says well that's not how the math

00:10:40.620 works out it kind of is though if he loses two i think he technically has like a bare majority but

00:10:46.660 that is a borderline unfunctional majority because the speaker has to pass everything,

00:10:51.700 which means that everything takes just way longer in order to actually pass. And you'd no longer

00:10:57.660 really have a majority or committee meetings anymore because the speaker cannot be, is not

00:11:03.620 part of the governing majority. It's the speaker. And so then it would throw all the committees

00:11:08.480 back into chaos, which would then put Carney at risk in terms of his current mission to protect

00:11:15.020 people like Francois Philippe Champagne, the finance minister, for having to testify about

00:11:19.960 corruption involving the Alto trains. That's another motivating factor for the Kearney liberals,

00:11:25.640 as well as the current Ontario liberals, to make sure that Nate is not allowed to leave.

00:11:30.860 Oh, there's a conversation around being a team player. I came back to the liberal party to run

00:11:34.320 the last federal election when we were in the basement because I wanted to help.

00:11:36.860 I like the way he says this. So this is the kind of crux of the whole thing.

00:11:40.120 this is where the bitterness comes out because at the same time everyone is asking him well why

00:11:46.140 aren't you helping out Carney keep his majority he's now going to go into his rant about how he

00:11:51.060 helped the liberals dig themselves out of the basement as he says uh it won't on the math but

00:11:56.260 I mean I I obviously look I know there's a conversation around being a team player I came

00:12:00.880 back to the liberal party to run the last federal election when we were in the basement because I

00:12:03.820 wanted to help and I don't want it's worth the team uh and and I'm going to be there to continue

00:12:07.580 to support the team, right? I mean, I've been in conversations with the PMO regularly to make sure

00:12:11.480 that I'm there to support them, that I'm not leaving them in the lurch, and that they've got

00:12:14.920 the votes, and I'll continue to be there to support this party and this government, for sure.

00:12:19.340 Thank you. Yeah. Thanks, guys. Did you miss?

00:12:23.040 Little bit bitter. Little bit of some bitterness from Erskine Smith there. I hope that man wins

00:12:29.760 that nomination, because it will throw everything into chaos, not just federal politics. It will

00:12:35.280 throw Ontario provincial politics into chaos. And I would love to see Nate Navdeep Bains and Nate

00:12:40.780 Erskine Smith fight each other for the Ontario Liberal leadership. Not because I like the Ontario

00:12:46.200 Liberal Party. I don't. I don't even like Doug Ford's PC party. They're also far too liberal for

00:12:51.020 me. I support the new blue party in Ontario because goodness, everything else sucks. But I 1.00

00:12:55.960 would love to see a corrupt Calistani politician like Navdeep Bains fight a hyper-progressive 0.99

00:13:04.180 vegan like Nate Erskine-Smith for that party's leadership. It will be pure wall-to-wall comedy, 0.95

00:13:10.340 and you know if that happens, I will be obligated to cover it because that's good television.

00:13:16.240 But yeah, so right now, Nate, if he wins, basically screws over Carney, and if he wins,

00:13:22.060 he also might screw over Navdeep Bains, so wait for a nomination bloodbath this Saturday for the

00:13:28.000 Ontario Liberal Party's Scarborough Southwest nomination. If he wins it, then it goes into a

00:13:33.640 general, and I wonder if in that by-election, if Navdeep Bains then tries to help the NDP

00:13:39.820 re-secure the riding, because he doesn't want Erskine Smith getting a seat in the legislature

00:13:43.740 while he doesn't have a seat in the legislature in Ontario. Anyways, with all that being said,

00:13:49.780 thank you guys for watching. Make sure to like, share, subscribe, hit the join button if you want

00:13:54.460 to become a channel member, and I'll see you guys all next time.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - May 07, 2026

Carney Majority At Risk - Liberals MP wants to LEAVE but They Won't Let Him!

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