The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - May 07, 2026


Carney Majority At Risk - Liberals MP wants to LEAVE but They Won't Let Him!

Hosted by
Wyatt Claypool
Mentioned
Nate Erskine Smith Mark Carney Nate Erskine-Smith Navdeep Bains Doug Ford Gregor Robertson Francois Philippe Champagne Beaches East York Cerberus Southwest Ontario Liberal Bonnie Henry Avi Lewis Danforth Julie Alto
MASK OFF： Carney appoints Liberal Migration Radical as Governor General! Carney PANICS after Trump Threatens His Hold on Canada!

Episode Stats


Length

13 minutes

Words per minute

186.12

Word count

2,599

Sentence count

121

Harmful content

Toxicity

3

sentences flagged

Hate speech

2

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Nate Erskine Smith is a popular federal MP for the riding of Beaches East York in the province of Ontario. He has been a long-time member of the federal Liberal Party, and is now trying to run for a seat in the Ontario Liberal Party as a candidate in the upcoming by-election in his riding. However, there are a lot of reasons why he may not be able to get a ticket to the next election.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here, and welcome back to the National Telegraph YouTube channel.
00:00:06.620 There is some very messy and complicated drama going on right now in federal liberal and
00:00:12.760 Ontario liberal politics. I've been making a prediction for quite a while that liberal
00:00:19.000 MP for Beaches East York, Nate Erskine-Smith, is going to resign from office in order to go
00:00:25.560 into Ontario Liberal politics and potentially become the next leader of the Ontario Liberal
00:00:31.420 Party. And this is creating a lot of friction, not only inside of the Ontario Liberal Party that
00:00:37.640 doesn't look like it actually wants him, at least from the elite establishment level of that party,
00:00:43.360 but Mark Carney also doesn't exactly want him to leave federal politics because he has an
00:00:48.720 extremely thin majority right now. But in this video, I want to take you guys through all of
00:00:55.000 the complicated draw, potentially a nomination race being rigged against Nate Erskine-Smith,
00:01:00.900 and Nate's very bitter demeanor when being asked questions about what is going on right now
00:01:06.200 in the Scarborough Southwest by-election that he is pursuing a liberal nomination for.
00:01:11.800 But before I get into it all, I just want to remind you guys, if you like the show,
00:01:16.060 make sure to leave a like on this video, subscribe if you are not yet a subscriber,
00:01:20.240 and consider hitting the join button below the video and becoming a member of the channel
00:01:25.020 and make a small contribution each month to help make the channel more sustainable for me
00:01:29.820 and allow me to be less reliant on the YouTube algorithm.
00:01:33.500 I thank all of you who are already members.
00:01:35.820 It really does make making operating the channel far easier for me.
00:01:40.620 Anyways, I am going to make the insertion point on this story.
00:01:45.260 This headline from the Globe and Mail.
00:01:47.740 this just came out earlier today or i believe yesterday and it says erskine smith's campaign
00:01:54.460 pushes back on ontario liberal membership rejections so in this article it is basically
00:02:02.460 described that the ontario liberal party seems to be trying to block erskine smith from leaving
00:02:09.340 federal politics to get involved in ontario provincial politics now erskine smith doesn't
00:02:15.580 specifically live in the Rhine of Scarborough Southwest. Obviously, he lives in York, where
00:02:20.660 he's the MP for Beaches East York, but he's still very popular. So what the Ontario Liberals have
00:02:27.140 done is they rejected 1,800 memberships that were sold in the course of this nomination, which
00:02:34.240 the implication is, is that they mostly skew against Erskine Smith. Many of them are probably
00:02:40.300 Erskine Smith signups that they just got rid of. And this seems to be being done in favor of Navdeep
00:02:47.120 Baines, who is not running in this nomination, but has allies in the nomination. And they are
00:02:52.840 trying to prevent Erskine Smith from winning the nomination, because if he does, he's very likely
00:02:57.680 to become the new MPP for Cerberus Southwest provincially. And then he will have set himself
00:03:03.880 up very nicely to take another run on the Ontario provincial party's leadership. He had
00:03:10.260 previously run for leader of the Ontario Liberal Party and come in second place to Bonnie Henry,
00:03:17.080 who then later went on to lose to Doug Ford in the provincial election. And so now Nate is trying
00:03:22.500 to better set himself up for a run at leader again by first getting into the Ontario legislature.
00:03:28.920 But Navdeep Bains wants to become the former corrupt liberal minister of something. I forget.
00:03:34.820 They were both federal liberal colleagues at one point, but Navdeep Bains is famously corrupt.
00:03:41.080 The guy will steal anything but a red hot stove, and he just recently started winding down another job he has to run for Ontario, a liberal leader.
00:03:51.540 And now the Ontario Liberal Party, who is very friendly to Navdeep Bains, is putting up a wall in front of Erskine Smith.
00:03:58.480 But I don't think that is the only motivation to try and block Erskine Smith from leaving federal politics. I think Prime Minister Mark Carney and his liberal government have a very keen interest in making sure that Nate's foray into liberal politics in Ontario fails.
00:04:16.500 And so they are trying to also, or at least they're supporting what is going on to screw Nate Erskine-Smith in the nomination. We don't need to go into all the names involved in that nomination and whatnot. Erskine-Smith probably still has a good chance of winning it and then getting into Ontario politics.
00:04:34.720 But again, there is a lot of kind of friction going on in the liberal world right now because Carney does not want his majority affected.
00:04:45.760 And so he probably has a very, you know, probably there is a lot going on in that liberal nomination to help Carney not have to go find another liberal MP for Beaches East York.
00:04:58.180 Because in Beaches East York, Avi Lewis, as we've seen in previous video, could win that riding in a by-election. The new leader of the NDP, despite being from British Columbia, actually polls very well in that very, very progressive riding of Beaches East York.
00:05:15.820 But now I want to take you guys in to this clip of Erskine Smith speaking in the halls of parliament
00:05:21.180 with reporters asking him about what's going on in his nomination right now
00:05:26.860 and what he's going to do if he doesn't actually win it.
00:05:29.800 Workers' rights around pay and workers' rights around protection.
00:05:33.120 Thank you so much.
00:05:34.980 Great.
00:05:35.480 We've got a great team on the ground, and thanks everyone very well.
00:05:38.220 And what happens for you if you jump into the election and you're in your show?
00:05:42.280 I haven't thought that far.
00:05:43.440 I'm thinking about Saturday and just all the conversations I've got to have between now and then.
00:05:46.820 And look, there have been obstacles in the race, obviously, but I'm feeling good about it.
00:05:51.480 And we're going to overcome those obstacles and we're going to be successful.
00:05:53.900 Do you think you are making enough of a pitch that you are from the community?
00:05:56.860 Because that seems to be what your opponents are saying, that you're not from Scarborough.
00:06:00.000 I am not overly distracted by what opponents will say.
00:06:03.040 It's politics.
00:06:03.680 I've lived through politics for the last decade.
00:06:07.200 Look, people are pretending that, you know,
00:06:10.480 Beaches East York is a million miles away from Scarborough Southwest.
00:06:13.120 I can walk to Scarborough Southwest from my house pretty quickly.
00:06:17.160 It's actually been really nice.
00:06:18.300 I mean, I'm meeting new people, obviously, through this nomination process.
00:06:21.420 And that's been great and really working to earn support of folks on the ground.
00:06:24.480 We've got a great Scarborough team.
00:06:25.780 I'm also reconnecting with so many people, people I went to high school with,
00:06:28.140 people that are former constituents, people that know me.
00:06:30.880 I'll use an example.
00:06:31.820 Julie is a former nurse.
00:06:33.020 She reached out to me proactively.
00:06:34.080 She knows me from my advocacy for the Fallon family after the Danforth shooting.
00:06:37.120 And she reached out as a former nurse.
00:06:38.520 I've got a hallway health care story I want you to share.
00:06:40.400 I want you to be my MPP.
00:06:41.600 I want you to be my premier.
00:06:42.820 So those are the conversations that I've been having.
00:06:45.380 Can you guys get the impression that Erskine Smith is a little bit bothered and antsy in this video?
00:06:52.140 We're going to, as you keep watching, you're going to start seeing the bitterness start to come out against the federal liberal government.
00:06:59.000 Because this is the part of the story that has not been yet said.
00:07:03.600 Erskine Smith was supposed to be the housing minister.
00:07:07.680 You'll know that the current housing minister is Liberal MP Gregor Roberts,
00:07:12.380 who is also the former very terrible mayor of Vancouver.
00:07:15.880 In fact, you couldn't probably pick a worse person to be the housing minister than Gregor Robertson
00:07:21.120 because he did such a terrible job on housing when he was the mayor of Vancouver,
00:07:25.780 helping massively balloon the prices of housing from his really bad zoning regulations.
00:07:31.300 And Erskine Smith technically was the housing minister
00:07:34.620 when Carney had first become liberal leader, he enticed Erskine Smith to run again for the
00:07:40.680 federal liberals because he was originally just going to exit and go into provincial politics
00:07:44.720 right away instead. Instead, in the early stages of 2025, when Carney was running from the federal
00:07:53.860 liberal leadership, he got Erskine Smith's endorsement under the impression that he was
00:07:58.680 going to be housing minister. He was housing minister for two months. After the federal
00:08:03.640 election he was then replaced by that moron gregor robertson and he's had a chip on his shoulder 0.99
00:08:08.600 ever since and you'll remember during like the air can uh uh flight attendants protests and during 0.97
00:08:16.280 some other issues that were bad for mark carney urskine smith actually spoke out against the
00:08:21.640 liberal government because he was trying to signal how i guess upset he was at the time from being
00:08:26.440 snubbed for his position that he once held overwhelmingly um and uh and look we're there
00:08:32.040 There are communities that I'm less familiar with.
00:08:34.060 I'm going to work relentlessly to serve them.
00:08:36.140 And no MP gets elected and knows every single part of their riding.
00:08:40.020 But I've got a pretty good head start.
00:08:41.520 I grew up playing baseball for Scarborough, for Birchmount, and I know the community pretty well.
00:08:45.820 When you think of the team, though, the fact that your opponents are seemingly trying to stack the deck against you,
00:08:50.540 are you concerned that it's equal to the party in general or some people call the party that want you to help?
00:08:55.880 I'm not so concerned about that.
00:08:57.240 You know, look, there have been consent report, if you couldn't hear that,
00:08:59.840 he's saying, aren't you concerned that the party seems to be stacking the deck against you?
00:09:03.760 Obviously, he is bothered. And it's not probably just the Ontario Liberals trying to stack the
00:09:08.380 deck against him. It's probably Carney and his allies in the Ontario Liberal Party trying to
00:09:12.960 stack the deck against Nate to basically hold the man hostage. Navdeep Baines wants to be Ontario
00:09:18.060 Liberal leader. He's more liked by the establishment of that provincial party. And Navdeep is also a
00:09:23.940 federal liberal insider so wouldn't it be great for both nate and navdeep that erskine smith or
00:09:31.140 it would be great for both mark carney and navdeep baines that nate erskine smith is screwed over in
00:09:35.640 this nomination i wonder what happens if he loses if he's actually going to stick around in the
00:09:40.680 liberal party knowing that he's surrounded by people who were betting against him in this foray
00:09:45.040 into provincial politics sir and obviously i was at an event where there were three paid staff
00:09:50.440 Ontario Liberal-paid staff that were supporting my main opponent.
00:09:53.620 That's concerning.
00:09:54.560 There are hundreds of members that have been allowed.
00:09:55.940 That's concerning.
00:09:56.600 But look, we're going to overcome these obstacles.
00:09:59.240 These are just obstacles.
00:10:00.280 We will overcome them.
00:10:01.040 We will deliver change across Ontario, and we will deliver change in the Ontario Liberal Party.
00:10:04.220 If you can, you still run for the leadership if you don't win this nominator.
00:10:08.180 Again, we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.
00:10:11.220 Someone asked him if he's even going to bother running for Ontario Liberal leadership
00:10:14.740 if he doesn't end up winning the nomination for the by-election.
00:10:17.760 it won't on the math but i i mean i i obviously look i know that person asked him what would
00:10:28.960 what's he gonna do uh what like is he still willing to step down and run in ontario liberal
00:10:35.700 politics if it's going to put carney's majority at risk and he says well that's not how the math
00:10:40.620 works out it kind of is though if he loses two i think he technically has like a bare majority but
00:10:46.660 that is a borderline unfunctional majority because the speaker has to pass everything,
00:10:51.700 which means that everything takes just way longer in order to actually pass. And you'd no longer
00:10:57.660 really have a majority or committee meetings anymore because the speaker cannot be, is not
00:11:03.620 part of the governing majority. It's the speaker. And so then it would throw all the committees
00:11:08.480 back into chaos, which would then put Carney at risk in terms of his current mission to protect
00:11:15.020 people like Francois Philippe Champagne, the finance minister, for having to testify about
00:11:19.960 corruption involving the Alto trains. That's another motivating factor for the Kearney liberals,
00:11:25.640 as well as the current Ontario liberals, to make sure that Nate is not allowed to leave.
00:11:30.860 Oh, there's a conversation around being a team player. I came back to the liberal party to run
00:11:34.320 the last federal election when we were in the basement because I wanted to help.
00:11:36.860 I like the way he says this. So this is the kind of crux of the whole thing.
00:11:40.120 this is where the bitterness comes out because at the same time everyone is asking him well why
00:11:46.140 aren't you helping out Carney keep his majority he's now going to go into his rant about how he
00:11:51.060 helped the liberals dig themselves out of the basement as he says uh it won't on the math but
00:11:56.260 I mean I I obviously look I know there's a conversation around being a team player I came
00:12:00.880 back to the liberal party to run the last federal election when we were in the basement because I
00:12:03.820 wanted to help and I don't want it's worth the team uh and and I'm going to be there to continue
00:12:07.580 to support the team, right? I mean, I've been in conversations with the PMO regularly to make sure
00:12:11.480 that I'm there to support them, that I'm not leaving them in the lurch, and that they've got
00:12:14.920 the votes, and I'll continue to be there to support this party and this government, for sure.
00:12:19.340 Thank you. Yeah. Thanks, guys. Did you miss?
00:12:23.040 Little bit bitter. Little bit of some bitterness from Erskine Smith there. I hope that man wins
00:12:29.760 that nomination, because it will throw everything into chaos, not just federal politics. It will
00:12:35.280 throw Ontario provincial politics into chaos. And I would love to see Nate Navdeep Bains and Nate
00:12:40.780 Erskine Smith fight each other for the Ontario Liberal leadership. Not because I like the Ontario
00:12:46.200 Liberal Party. I don't. I don't even like Doug Ford's PC party. They're also far too liberal for
00:12:51.020 me. I support the new blue party in Ontario because goodness, everything else sucks. But I 1.00
00:12:55.960 would love to see a corrupt Calistani politician like Navdeep Bains fight a hyper-progressive 0.99
00:13:04.180 vegan like Nate Erskine-Smith for that party's leadership. It will be pure wall-to-wall comedy, 0.95
00:13:10.340 and you know if that happens, I will be obligated to cover it because that's good television.
00:13:16.240 But yeah, so right now, Nate, if he wins, basically screws over Carney, and if he wins,
00:13:22.060 he also might screw over Navdeep Bains, so wait for a nomination bloodbath this Saturday for the
00:13:28.000 Ontario Liberal Party's Scarborough Southwest nomination. If he wins it, then it goes into a
00:13:33.640 general, and I wonder if in that by-election, if Navdeep Bains then tries to help the NDP
00:13:39.820 re-secure the riding, because he doesn't want Erskine Smith getting a seat in the legislature
00:13:43.740 while he doesn't have a seat in the legislature in Ontario. Anyways, with all that being said,
00:13:49.780 thank you guys for watching. Make sure to like, share, subscribe, hit the join button if you want
00:13:54.460 to become a channel member, and I'll see you guys all next time.