The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - October 01, 2025


Carney on the BRINK - Poll shows Liberal lead fell by 10%


Episode Stats


Length

22 minutes

Words per minute

173.76942

Word count

3,928

Sentence count

216

Harmful content

Hate speech

11

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

A new Nanos poll that shows a dramatic shift in support for the Tories, and it's devastating for Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberal Party of Canada. But how bad is it? And why is it happening?

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.160 Ahoy, everyone. Wyatt Claypool here, back on the whiteboard today to talk about a new
00:00:06.260 nanos poll drop that is absolutely devastating for Prime Minister Mark Carney and his Liberal
00:00:12.220 government. As you guys may know, after the federal election, the Liberals had very good
00:00:17.620 polling among all the pollsters for about three or four months. After about the third
00:00:23.200 month, you started seeing pollsters start shifting back towards the Conservatives. Some
00:00:27.980 had the Conservatives leaning, some had it just getting quite tight where they're within the
00:00:32.620 margin of error, and if there was a federal election, anybody could win. But the one pollster
00:00:37.420 that was always a pro-Liberal holdout was nanos. I'm not saying that the pollster is pro-Liberal
00:00:44.040 like they're trying to show the Liberals winning, just generally their methodology, especially
00:00:48.940 between elections, tends to lean more liberal. Nanos is actually very good during election periods,
00:00:54.260 but when a pollster has different methodologies they use for the writ period that's more expensive,
00:00:58.720 and then they switch to a cheaper methodology post-election, naturally you can't say, well,
00:01:04.620 they're super accurate during the election, so you have to believe they're post-election polls.
00:01:09.040 The polls are being done differently, so you have to look at them as different.
00:01:12.540 So these polls have always leaned more liberal, and I want to go into detail on one of their older
00:01:18.460 polls, and then I want to talk about the one that just released, because it is startling how
00:01:23.080 quickly things are shifting on Mark Carney. He seems to know it, he seems to know that a lot
00:01:28.700 of people are shifting away from the Liberals because he frankly hasn't delivered. He's not
00:01:33.180 the man with the plan, he's not the man to lead us through a crisis, and so after having fumbled on
00:01:38.080 so many policies and put his foot in his mouth, he's now jet-setting all around the world, meeting
00:01:43.560 with world leaders to have, you know, empty talk about nothing, pretend like, you know, he's really
00:01:49.400 boosting the brand of Canada, he's fighting for Canadian interests by having tea with
00:01:53.980 Keir Starmer and shaking hands with the Latvian Prime Minister or something like that. It's
00:01:58.740 all just empty. Anyways, but before I get into the details of this poll, guys, I do just quickly
00:02:05.500 want to say, yes, I did get a haircut. I knew if I did not acknowledge that my hair is now
00:02:11.080 shorter, 50% of the comments would have been, hey, why did you get a haircut? And I would have
00:02:15.600 been constantly having to reply, yes, I did find Citizen. But now for the real plugs. Guys,
00:02:21.200 if you like the show, leave a like on the video, subscribe if you're not yet a subscriber. I'm
00:02:26.000 trying to hit 100,000 subscribers by the end of the year 2025. Also, leave a comment on what you
00:02:31.860 think. It helps us on the algorithm. Plus, I do actually like to scroll through, see what people
00:02:36.860 are saying, and try and reply to a bunch. Obviously, when I have 800 comments, I can't really reply to
00:02:42.260 everybody. So I try and reply to things I'm seeing uniquely. Like, obviously, you'll have like 50 of
00:02:47.700 the same comments. I'm not going to reply to everyone saying the same thing. I'll try and just
00:02:52.220 do a smattering of replies here and there. But now I'm overcomplicating this part of the video. Oh,
00:02:56.860 my goodness, Wyatt. So let's go back in time to a simpler, more innocent era, also known as June 27th
00:03:04.920 of this literal same year. So the Liberals were flying high in pretty much all the polls back in June.
00:03:10.960 Again, this is a classic honeymoon period. You're going to naturally do better right after you win
00:03:16.920 an election. One, because you're going to have a lot of Conservative voters who are the most
00:03:21.540 disappointed, obviously, in the outcome. NDP, bloc, they know they're not going to win a government.
00:03:26.720 But Conservatives are going to be the least likely to probably want to pick up the phone after the
00:03:30.660 election, whereas Liberals are going to be quite excited. Added on to the fact that Nanos tends to
00:03:36.340 have a methodology between elections that is more likely to reach downtown voters or public sector
00:03:42.520 voters. And you're going to have a big skew for the Liberals. And when I say it's more likely to
00:03:47.500 reach them, live phone polling is really difficult to get a farmer or a plumber or a small business
00:03:53.060 owner to answer because it's a five-minute call. You probably don't have time. IBR is easier for
00:03:58.220 somebody who's on a farm and doesn't really want to waste time on the phone because it's a robotic
00:04:02.860 voice saying, hit number one if you want Conservatives. They hit it and they say, thank you, and that's
00:04:06.720 it. Big, complicated polls over the phone with a live person taking you through it are something
00:04:13.780 that you're only going to do if you're sitting in an office, which more public sector workers are,
00:04:18.260 or people working in a downtown area who are more liberal in general. But back on June 24th,
00:04:24.340 we had the Liberals leading with 14% over the Conservatives. That is a massive lead I don't
00:04:34.700 even need to tell you guys. This is not an election where the Conservatives are even present. This is an
00:04:40.960 election where the Conservatives would maybe only win like 90 seats or something like that, maybe 75
00:04:46.420 seats. Liberals 45 to 31 are sweeping probably about 80% of all the Ontario seats. They're probably
00:04:55.140 sweeping 80% of British Columbia, and the Conservatives may not even win a single Atlantic
00:05:02.300 province seat in a poll like this. But what you would notice early on is that the NDP were kind of
00:05:10.300 over-polling. The NDP only got 6% in the election, and yet in this poll, they were literally doing
00:05:16.760 7% better than they had actually done during the federal election. I don't think this was ever going
00:05:23.780 to actually stay in place. And over time, we have seen the NDP grow since the election, but not to this
00:05:31.140 extent. We also haven't actually seen the Liberals go from having 43 in the election to, like, this isn't as
00:05:39.140 big of a growth. But they went from 43 to 45, which is reasonable, but not on the back of the
00:05:44.540 Conservatives falling down a full 10 points. Mostly, again, what happened here is just
00:05:50.500 Conservatives kind of clicked out. But even then, after June 27th, as the honeymoon started to die off in
00:05:57.500 other pollsters' readings, Nanos kept saying, plus 13 Liberal, plus 10 Liberal, plus 11, plus 13, until very
00:06:06.380 recently, where they absolutely fell off a cliff. And they are a pollster who is going to respond to
00:06:13.020 trends slower than others, because what they do is their polls have 1,000 respondents. The problem
00:06:20.780 is that they only pull 250 new people at a time. So every three or four days, they pull 250 people,
00:06:28.040 bump off the old 250, and then add in the new 250. And so what you will have is sort of the previous
00:06:36.280 three times they've pulled sticking in the poll and weighing down new trends, so it doesn't really look
00:06:41.880 like things are changing as fast. But now, we have things changing actually quite rapidly. This last poll
00:06:49.000 they did had just concluded on September 26th, just a few days ago. Now, this poll has, let's just go
00:06:58.680 through the numbers here. Still the Liberals leading, no doubt, but we have the Liberals in this poll at
00:07:07.480 41%, and we have the Conservatives having jumped way up to being at 37%. And then, the MVP actually
00:07:21.560 staying pretty robust compared to their previous polling is actually still hanging around at 12%,
00:07:29.400 with the Bloc Québécois at 5% in this poll. Now, I actually kind of doubt
00:07:37.080 the Bloc's only at 5%. Considering that the Liberals have fallen down since the last election,
00:07:43.560 I don't think the Bloc would have also fallen down. Although, it is harder to poll people who
00:07:49.400 vote Bloc Québécois because naturally this is just one province, and if a Quebec sample is a little bit
00:07:55.080 skewed on one of the nano samples, it's going to look really bad in the next poll. But let's just look
00:08:02.040 at how this lead has changed. Previously, we are at 14%, and now we are only at a 4%
00:08:14.760 lead over the Conservative Party. So, if you're doing the math at home, and it's very easy, that is a
00:08:21.720 negative 10% swing between these last two polls. That is quite incredible, considering, again, I keep
00:08:33.080 hearing from the media that a lot of people have confidence in Mark Carney. Oh, it's a new government.
00:08:37.320 We're in a new era. We're really not. And I think a lot of Canadians are pretty wise to the fact that
00:08:42.440 things haven't changed that much. Or else, I'm pretty sure you would have seen there be way more staying
00:08:48.600 power with this Liberal government. But add up all the scandals here. No trade deal, deficits out the
00:08:54.520 wazoo, no budget yet. We have the gun buyback scandal with Gary Amasangri caught on a hot mic
00:09:00.920 basically saying, or caught on tape, lying or basically admitting that he knows the entire
00:09:06.120 gun buyback scheme is a complete fraud, that we should really just be arresting real criminals,
00:09:11.720 and it's a waste of taxpayer money, and then getting up in Parliament day after day and saying,
00:09:15.320 well, it doesn't matter what I said. That's not actually what I believe on the record. It's so
00:09:20.200 ridiculous. So this is also another poll with 1,000 respondents. But when we actually look at this,
00:09:27.960 we now have the Conservatives, I actually think it's a little bit less than a 4% lead for the Liberals.
00:09:34.280 We're now in an election here where you're pretty much kind of back to where the last election was at.
00:09:41.480 And I know a lot of people are going to think, well, that doesn't mean anything. It does mean
00:09:46.920 something if you know the dynamics of electoral politics. If you just got reelected and it was on
00:09:52.920 this unifying patriotic message of elbows up and you almost won a majority government, you think you
00:09:59.320 would be like Stephen Harper and at least able to maintain or grow your seat count a little bit?
00:10:04.760 Because that's what happened to Stephen Harper in 2004. He barely missed it. Paul Martin got to be
00:10:09.720 Prime Minister for another two years. And then 2006, Harper gets a minority. 2008, Harper gets a bigger
00:10:16.840 minority. 2011, he wins his full majority. Right now, Carney barely won, like barely won,
00:10:24.280 got a minority government, a few seats off of a majority. And when I say barely won, when you actually
00:10:29.800 look at the margins between the seats, if the Conservatives won them or between the Liberals
00:10:35.160 and the Conservatives, he had very thin margins in a lot of those ridings. So it was still a very close
00:10:40.840 election in all of the key ridings. And now he is on the path to actually being down in the polls again
00:10:48.520 when Harper effectively was able to keep increasing. And so this is kind of the panic that the Liberals are in.
00:10:55.640 What are they really going to do to buoy themselves up? Now, I've heard rumors in the background,
00:11:00.440 well, they could announce a pipeline. I've talked to people inside the United Conservative Party
00:11:05.800 government in Alberta. Daniel Smith is trying to play ball with Mark Carney, go along with the idea
00:11:12.040 that, oh, he's going to be an ally of Alberta. Obviously, this is kind of all surface level,
00:11:16.760 what you have to do type stuff. Daniel Smith probably doesn't trust Mark Carney as far as she can
00:11:22.200 throw him. But you can't just walk out into public saying, I think the guy's a weaselly liar or
00:11:29.080 whatever. You kind of have to play ball. But behind the scenes, I've been told by the UCP government
00:11:35.240 officials that, yeah, they really don't think Carney's going to deliver anything, but they have to seem
00:11:40.680 like they have a sunny disposition about the optimistic, about the idea that we may actually get
00:11:46.120 a pipeline approved. Or he can basically just blame Alberta for not being friendly enough,
00:11:51.240 for not working with him enough. They're probably not going to be able to get it done.
00:11:55.080 And now, where's the Liberals' big policy win? The GDP is going down. All we have in a certain
00:12:02.280 sense is on an upswing when it comes to his media, when it comes to the way he's positioning himself.
00:12:09.480 He is getting a lot more energy back right after having won the by-election in Battle River Crowfoot.
00:12:15.160 But Mark Carney doesn't really have anything on the go. I can't name anything. Like,
00:12:19.800 other people are able to sustain their popularity for a long time. Just look at Manitoba Premier Wab
00:12:26.520 Canu. He has been Premier for over a year and still quite popular because he's charismatic. And even
00:12:32.760 though I don't agree with his policy, he's good at at least getting policy over the finish line.
00:12:37.960 Mark Carney is unsure of himself and not really pushing anything at the moment.
00:12:42.120 But anyways, I'm going to clear the board in just a second here. I want to come back
00:12:45.640 to talk about some other findings in other polls and just things that I find kind of concerning as
00:12:51.400 well as interesting going on in Canada right now. Okay, I'm back and I hope that you guys follow me on
00:12:58.280 this one because it's going to be a little bit more complicated. But I believe it kind of tells us
00:13:04.040 why Mark Carney and the Liberals were able to win this last federal election. And the good thing is,
00:13:10.040 I believe this is a passing issue. So the question in this poll was, I'll specifically read it here,
00:13:18.600 quote, young people in Canada won't want to do the jobs that temporary foreign workers do. And it's a
00:13:26.280 agree versus disagree. And I'm going to be breaking all of these age demographics, 0.94
00:13:32.040 all these age categories into their slightly strongly agree, as well as slightly and strongly
00:13:40.520 disagree categories. Because I find this all quite concerning in terms of where the country's going.
00:13:47.320 I'm just realizing I need a better color pen for the slightly disagree because my red looks a little
00:13:52.920 bit too similar. So I want to start with the youngest demographic. And this, it makes sense when you look 0.98
00:13:59.880 at it in terms of, of course, younger people would be like this. So young people, 18%,
00:14:08.040 strongly agree that young people are actually I'm doing the wrong one. I was looking at the total 1.00
00:14:13.400 there. Sorry. Oh, I'm messing everything up, guys. 7% of people of young people 18 to 29 think young
00:14:22.280 people don't want to do the jobs that foreign workers are being hired for. 31% slightly agree. 0.99
00:14:31.560 And then we have 24% slightly disagree. And then we have 17% strongly disagree. And now you will be
00:14:44.360 able to add up the numbers and know that it's not 100%. I'm just leaving the undecideds out of each
00:14:48.680 category. Because that's a it's pretty consistent across the age groups. And it doesn't really matter
00:14:53.960 too much. Undecideds will tend to break the way that they're currently already doing. 0.97
00:14:58.680 But already, this makes sense. Younger people don't really, it's a little more 50 50, but more disagree
00:15:05.000 with the notion young people don't want to work the jobs TFWs are working. And I think that obviously,
00:15:11.400 you are going to get people who work better jobs already in this age demographic who think,
00:15:16.680 oh, yeah, of course, young people don't want to work at fast food restaurants. Of course, they don't
00:15:20.200 want the service jobs or any of these jobs in in tourism towns, because they don't personally work
00:15:26.440 them. But there's a large portion of young people saying no, I'd work those jobs if I could actually
00:15:30.840 get hired, especially on the younger side of this age category. Plus, you can't really leave out the
00:15:36.680 fact that there are a lot of young people who are going to be very liberal and think, you know,
00:15:41.800 they support liberal parties or the liberal party and the NDP who support the TFW program federally.
00:15:48.360 And so I also think that is a good thing. And anyone, you know, talking bad against it's just
00:15:53.800 wrong. Young people don't want to work these jobs. Well, now let's move on to 30 of 39. And then I'm 0.85
00:15:59.720 just going to fill in the rest of it here and sort of talk as I go. But as you get older, the
00:16:06.120 the strongly agreed increases, maybe I'll just go across the board on this 15% in the age category
00:16:13.080 of 30 to 39. You have 18% in the 40 to 49 category, 12% in the 50 to 59, which actually kind of makes
00:16:23.720 sense. That's kind of Gen Z personality, self starters, you know, of course, people want a job.
00:16:28.440 And then in 60 plus, this is the category that the liberals did very well in during the election,
00:16:34.920 27% believe, I know that's a bit far away, maybe I can just write it next to it. But 27%
00:16:43.720 of voters above the age of 60 believe that young people do not want the jobs that that TFWs are 0.99
00:16:50.440 currently occupying. I'm gonna say this is kind of depressing. The thing that you will get in this
00:16:56.200 poll, 41% of other 60 plus voters also somewhat agree with the idea young people don't want these
00:17:04.600 jobs. And then only 17% slightly disagree with that idea. And 9% strongly disagree with that idea.
00:17:16.680 Now, I assume if you're watching my channel, and you are above the age of 60, you are probably more
00:17:22.440 part of the disagree side that you, you know, want your grandkids, you want your kids who are
00:17:27.400 in the younger demographics to be able to get these jobs and not be priced out of the market.
00:17:31.400 But the problem with Canada right now is there's a large group of especially Eastern Canadian voters 0.99
00:17:37.000 above the age of 60, who just don't really see a problem with the liberal agenda, they don't really
00:17:42.040 see that young people are struggling, and that the jobs are not available. And in part, it's because
00:17:47.080 of the TFW program. And now the retroactive justification is, well, yeah, your unemployment
00:17:53.000 rate, it's very high, but you don't want to work the job anyway. So who cares, which is kind of a
00:17:57.640 depressing notion. Within the 50 to 59 category, you have another 34% thinking that they slightly agree
00:18:05.320 with the idea young people don't want these jobs, 25% within the 40 to 49, and also 25% within the 30 to 39.
00:18:18.040 And then we have 32% slightly disagreeing with it in the 30 to 39. We have 24 in the 40 to 49.
00:18:28.280 We have 26 in the 50 to 59. And we already finished that one. And then just finishing up with the last
00:18:35.320 little bit here, we have 21% strongly disagreeing in 50 to 59. We have 26% strongly disagreeing in 40 to 49.
00:18:44.280 And we have 18% strongly disagreeing in 30 to 39. Now, you can even again, you can see the sort of
00:18:52.760 generation gaps here. Millennials are actually a little more disproportionately willing to think
00:18:58.280 young people won't work these jobs compared to Gen X people who again tend to actually be 1.00
00:19:04.040 disproportionately represented in as small business owners and trades people. And so it's kind of
00:19:09.640 interesting to see that age demographic, having more confidence in young people in certain categories
00:19:14.840 than even the millennials are. But I don't need to belabor this too much. This is the thing I can
00:19:21.880 probably end the video on or I could end up having this thing go on for a long time. In a lot of ways,
00:19:27.320 this chart is the current problem of Canada. We have bad policies. And we just have a lot of voters
00:19:33.480 out there who just think that they're fine. Young people have high unemployment, but they don't want 0.97
00:19:38.120 the jobs anyways. So there's a group of Canadians who don't actually see it. And it is across all
00:19:45.000 of the generations. It's just very acute on the older side right now. But we have a group of Canadians
00:19:52.200 who it doesn't matter how bad the problems get. It's not really a problem if you think about it.
00:19:57.720 Who cares, especially that young men going to university can't get a summer job. They wouldn't
00:20:03.320 want it anyways. That's, that's very, you know, it's very easy off the lips if you don't need that job,
00:20:09.560 that that person doesn't want the job anyways. And TFWs are not out competing young Canadian kids who
00:20:15.000 didn't want to apply. TFWs are in fact a subsidized labor base that taxpayers through the government
00:20:22.200 are paying large corporations and even small businesses in order to employ them for a
00:20:26.840 subsidized rate. So where a Canadian kid would maybe in Alberta be getting paid $15 an hour,
00:20:32.680 a TFW, when you add the subsidies in for the business, are paying about $11.50 per hour for
00:20:38.840 that worker. So obviously, this is a very big problem. The LMIA program is massively abused, where
00:20:46.520 you'll post a job for $35 an hour and anyone would probably want to work a management job, not
00:20:51.880 anyone, but you get my point. Anyone kind of where that would be considered a bump up in their wage.
00:20:57.240 Any, a lot of people would work a $35 an hour management job. But the thing is, it's fake jobs.
00:21:03.400 They're basically saying, Oh, I need to fill this 30 to $35, this 30 to $35 an hour job,
00:21:09.800 and I can't find anybody. The secret is they're not even looking, but they need to make this job pay that
00:21:15.480 much, even though it should probably pay about 25 to 27 an hour, because it needs, the wage needs to be that
00:21:21.320 high in order for it to be able to qualify for a TFW placement. Oh, I've already raised the wage a
00:21:27.640 lot. Can't find anyone at this wage. Yes, I haven't even tried, but now I need a temporary foreign worker 1.00
00:21:32.920 I can bring in and then I'll just be secretly only paying them $15 an hour or $11 an hour, $15 an hour
00:21:38.760 for the management position. It's completely ridiculous. Anyways, so with that being said,
00:21:45.320 that should be before the end of this video. You can tell I'm getting a bit lightheaded in
00:21:50.120 the end of this video guys. But yeah, I will be back with more whiteboard videos in the future,
00:21:56.440 mostly national polling. But I do like to kind of go off the reservation a little bit and talk
00:22:01.480 about stuff like this sometimes, because again, I believe that this is a big problem in Canadian
00:22:07.640 politics right now. You have young people who want jobs and you have some older liberal voters who
00:22:12.760 don't think they should even get the jobs because, well, TFW's, really it's the TFW's job. Young
00:22:19.640 people don't even want the job. Don't worry, this program works great because it doesn't affect me
00:22:23.960 negatively. Anyways, so with that being said guys, I will see you all later.