The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Carney on the BRINK

00:00:00.160 Ahoy, everyone. Wyatt Claypool here, back on the whiteboard today to talk about a new

00:00:06.260 nanos poll drop that is absolutely devastating for Prime Minister Mark Carney and his Liberal

00:00:12.220 government. As you guys may know, after the federal election, the Liberals had very good

00:00:17.620 polling among all the pollsters for about three or four months. After about the third

00:00:23.200 month, you started seeing pollsters start shifting back towards the Conservatives. Some

00:00:27.980 had the Conservatives leaning, some had it just getting quite tight where they're within the

00:00:32.620 margin of error, and if there was a federal election, anybody could win. But the one pollster

00:00:37.420 that was always a pro-Liberal holdout was nanos. I'm not saying that the pollster is pro-Liberal

00:00:44.040 like they're trying to show the Liberals winning, just generally their methodology, especially

00:00:48.940 between elections, tends to lean more liberal. Nanos is actually very good during election periods,

00:00:54.260 but when a pollster has different methodologies they use for the writ period that's more expensive,

00:00:58.720 and then they switch to a cheaper methodology post-election, naturally you can't say, well,

00:01:04.620 they're super accurate during the election, so you have to believe they're post-election polls.

00:01:09.040 The polls are being done differently, so you have to look at them as different.

00:01:12.540 So these polls have always leaned more liberal, and I want to go into detail on one of their older

00:01:18.460 polls, and then I want to talk about the one that just released, because it is startling how

00:01:23.080 quickly things are shifting on Mark Carney. He seems to know it, he seems to know that a lot

00:01:28.700 of people are shifting away from the Liberals because he frankly hasn't delivered. He's not

00:01:33.180 the man with the plan, he's not the man to lead us through a crisis, and so after having fumbled on

00:01:38.080 so many policies and put his foot in his mouth, he's now jet-setting all around the world, meeting

00:01:43.560 with world leaders to have, you know, empty talk about nothing, pretend like, you know, he's really

00:01:49.400 boosting the brand of Canada, he's fighting for Canadian interests by having tea with

00:01:53.980 Keir Starmer and shaking hands with the Latvian Prime Minister or something like that. It's

00:01:58.740 all just empty. Anyways, but before I get into the details of this poll, guys, I do just quickly

00:02:05.500 want to say, yes, I did get a haircut. I knew if I did not acknowledge that my hair is now

00:02:11.080 shorter, 50% of the comments would have been, hey, why did you get a haircut? And I would have

00:02:15.600 been constantly having to reply, yes, I did find Citizen. But now for the real plugs. Guys,

00:02:21.200 if you like the show, leave a like on the video, subscribe if you're not yet a subscriber. I'm

00:02:26.000 trying to hit 100,000 subscribers by the end of the year 2025. Also, leave a comment on what you

00:02:31.860 think. It helps us on the algorithm. Plus, I do actually like to scroll through, see what people

00:02:36.860 are saying, and try and reply to a bunch. Obviously, when I have 800 comments, I can't really reply to

00:02:42.260 everybody. So I try and reply to things I'm seeing uniquely. Like, obviously, you'll have like 50 of

00:02:47.700 the same comments. I'm not going to reply to everyone saying the same thing. I'll try and just

00:02:52.220 do a smattering of replies here and there. But now I'm overcomplicating this part of the video. Oh,

00:02:56.860 my goodness, Wyatt. So let's go back in time to a simpler, more innocent era, also known as June 27th

00:03:04.920 of this literal same year. So the Liberals were flying high in pretty much all the polls back in June.

00:03:10.960 Again, this is a classic honeymoon period. You're going to naturally do better right after you win

00:03:16.920 an election. One, because you're going to have a lot of Conservative voters who are the most

00:03:21.540 disappointed, obviously, in the outcome. NDP, bloc, they know they're not going to win a government.

00:03:26.720 But Conservatives are going to be the least likely to probably want to pick up the phone after the

00:03:30.660 election, whereas Liberals are going to be quite excited. Added on to the fact that Nanos tends to

00:03:36.340 have a methodology between elections that is more likely to reach downtown voters or public sector

00:03:42.520 voters. And you're going to have a big skew for the Liberals. And when I say it's more likely to

00:03:47.500 reach them, live phone polling is really difficult to get a farmer or a plumber or a small business

00:03:53.060 owner to answer because it's a five-minute call. You probably don't have time. IBR is easier for

00:03:58.220 somebody who's on a farm and doesn't really want to waste time on the phone because it's a robotic

00:04:02.860 voice saying, hit number one if you want Conservatives. They hit it and they say, thank you, and that's

00:04:06.720 it. Big, complicated polls over the phone with a live person taking you through it are something

00:04:13.780 that you're only going to do if you're sitting in an office, which more public sector workers are,

00:04:18.260 or people working in a downtown area who are more liberal in general. But back on June 24th,

00:04:24.340 we had the Liberals leading with 14% over the Conservatives. That is a massive lead I don't

00:04:34.700 even need to tell you guys. This is not an election where the Conservatives are even present. This is an

00:04:40.960 election where the Conservatives would maybe only win like 90 seats or something like that, maybe 75

00:04:46.420 seats. Liberals 45 to 31 are sweeping probably about 80% of all the Ontario seats. They're probably

00:04:55.140 sweeping 80% of British Columbia, and the Conservatives may not even win a single Atlantic

00:05:02.300 province seat in a poll like this. But what you would notice early on is that the NDP were kind of

00:05:10.300 over-polling. The NDP only got 6% in the election, and yet in this poll, they were literally doing

00:05:16.760 7% better than they had actually done during the federal election. I don't think this was ever going

00:05:23.780 to actually stay in place. And over time, we have seen the NDP grow since the election, but not to this

00:05:31.140 extent. We also haven't actually seen the Liberals go from having 43 in the election to, like, this isn't as

00:05:39.140 big of a growth. But they went from 43 to 45, which is reasonable, but not on the back of the

00:05:44.540 Conservatives falling down a full 10 points. Mostly, again, what happened here is just

00:05:50.500 Conservatives kind of clicked out. But even then, after June 27th, as the honeymoon started to die off in

00:05:57.500 other pollsters' readings, Nanos kept saying, plus 13 Liberal, plus 10 Liberal, plus 11, plus 13, until very

00:06:06.380 recently, where they absolutely fell off a cliff. And they are a pollster who is going to respond to

00:06:13.020 trends slower than others, because what they do is their polls have 1,000 respondents. The problem

00:06:20.780 is that they only pull 250 new people at a time. So every three or four days, they pull 250 people,

00:06:28.040 bump off the old 250, and then add in the new 250. And so what you will have is sort of the previous

00:06:36.280 three times they've pulled sticking in the poll and weighing down new trends, so it doesn't really look

00:06:41.880 like things are changing as fast. But now, we have things changing actually quite rapidly. This last poll

00:06:49.000 they did had just concluded on September 26th, just a few days ago. Now, this poll has, let's just go

00:06:58.680 through the numbers here. Still the Liberals leading, no doubt, but we have the Liberals in this poll at

00:07:07.480 41%, and we have the Conservatives having jumped way up to being at 37%. And then, the MVP actually

00:07:21.560 staying pretty robust compared to their previous polling is actually still hanging around at 12%,

00:07:29.400 with the Bloc Québécois at 5% in this poll. Now, I actually kind of doubt

00:07:37.080 the Bloc's only at 5%. Considering that the Liberals have fallen down since the last election,

00:07:43.560 I don't think the Bloc would have also fallen down. Although, it is harder to poll people who

00:07:49.400 vote Bloc Québécois because naturally this is just one province, and if a Quebec sample is a little bit

00:07:55.080 skewed on one of the nano samples, it's going to look really bad in the next poll. But let's just look

00:08:02.040 at how this lead has changed. Previously, we are at 14%, and now we are only at a 4%

00:08:14.760 lead over the Conservative Party. So, if you're doing the math at home, and it's very easy, that is a

00:08:21.720 negative 10% swing between these last two polls. That is quite incredible, considering, again, I keep

00:08:33.080 hearing from the media that a lot of people have confidence in Mark Carney. Oh, it's a new government.

00:08:37.320 We're in a new era. We're really not. And I think a lot of Canadians are pretty wise to the fact that

00:08:42.440 things haven't changed that much. Or else, I'm pretty sure you would have seen there be way more staying

00:08:48.600 power with this Liberal government. But add up all the scandals here. No trade deal, deficits out the

00:08:54.520 wazoo, no budget yet. We have the gun buyback scandal with Gary Amasangri caught on a hot mic

00:09:00.920 basically saying, or caught on tape, lying or basically admitting that he knows the entire

00:09:06.120 gun buyback scheme is a complete fraud, that we should really just be arresting real criminals,

00:09:11.720 and it's a waste of taxpayer money, and then getting up in Parliament day after day and saying,

00:09:15.320 well, it doesn't matter what I said. That's not actually what I believe on the record. It's so

00:09:20.200 ridiculous. So this is also another poll with 1,000 respondents. But when we actually look at this,

00:09:27.960 we now have the Conservatives, I actually think it's a little bit less than a 4% lead for the Liberals.

00:09:34.280 We're now in an election here where you're pretty much kind of back to where the last election was at.

00:09:41.480 And I know a lot of people are going to think, well, that doesn't mean anything. It does mean

00:09:46.920 something if you know the dynamics of electoral politics. If you just got reelected and it was on

00:09:52.920 this unifying patriotic message of elbows up and you almost won a majority government, you think you

00:09:59.320 would be like Stephen Harper and at least able to maintain or grow your seat count a little bit?

00:10:04.760 Because that's what happened to Stephen Harper in 2004. He barely missed it. Paul Martin got to be

00:10:09.720 Prime Minister for another two years. And then 2006, Harper gets a minority. 2008, Harper gets a bigger

00:10:16.840 minority. 2011, he wins his full majority. Right now, Carney barely won, like barely won,

00:10:24.280 got a minority government, a few seats off of a majority. And when I say barely won, when you actually

00:10:29.800 look at the margins between the seats, if the Conservatives won them or between the Liberals

00:10:35.160 and the Conservatives, he had very thin margins in a lot of those ridings. So it was still a very close

00:10:40.840 election in all of the key ridings. And now he is on the path to actually being down in the polls again

00:10:48.520 when Harper effectively was able to keep increasing. And so this is kind of the panic that the Liberals are in.

00:10:55.640 What are they really going to do to buoy themselves up? Now, I've heard rumors in the background,

00:11:00.440 well, they could announce a pipeline. I've talked to people inside the United Conservative Party

00:11:05.800 government in Alberta. Daniel Smith is trying to play ball with Mark Carney, go along with the idea

00:11:12.040 that, oh, he's going to be an ally of Alberta. Obviously, this is kind of all surface level,

00:11:16.760 what you have to do type stuff. Daniel Smith probably doesn't trust Mark Carney as far as she can

00:11:22.200 throw him. But you can't just walk out into public saying, I think the guy's a weaselly liar or

00:11:29.080 whatever. You kind of have to play ball. But behind the scenes, I've been told by the UCP government

00:11:35.240 officials that, yeah, they really don't think Carney's going to deliver anything, but they have to seem

00:11:40.680 like they have a sunny disposition about the optimistic, about the idea that we may actually get

00:11:46.120 a pipeline approved. Or he can basically just blame Alberta for not being friendly enough,

00:11:51.240 for not working with him enough. They're probably not going to be able to get it done.

00:11:55.080 And now, where's the Liberals' big policy win? The GDP is going down. All we have in a certain

00:12:02.280 sense is on an upswing when it comes to his media, when it comes to the way he's positioning himself.

00:12:09.480 He is getting a lot more energy back right after having won the by-election in Battle River Crowfoot.

00:12:15.160 But Mark Carney doesn't really have anything on the go. I can't name anything. Like,

00:12:19.800 other people are able to sustain their popularity for a long time. Just look at Manitoba Premier Wab

00:12:26.520 Canu. He has been Premier for over a year and still quite popular because he's charismatic. And even

00:12:32.760 though I don't agree with his policy, he's good at at least getting policy over the finish line.

00:12:37.960 Mark Carney is unsure of himself and not really pushing anything at the moment.

00:12:42.120 But anyways, I'm going to clear the board in just a second here. I want to come back

00:12:45.640 to talk about some other findings in other polls and just things that I find kind of concerning as

00:12:51.400 well as interesting going on in Canada right now. Okay, I'm back and I hope that you guys follow me on

00:12:58.280 this one because it's going to be a little bit more complicated. But I believe it kind of tells us

00:13:04.040 why Mark Carney and the Liberals were able to win this last federal election. And the good thing is,

00:13:10.040 I believe this is a passing issue. So the question in this poll was, I'll specifically read it here,

00:13:18.600 quote, young people in Canada won't want to do the jobs that temporary foreign workers do. And it's a

00:13:26.280 agree versus disagree. And I'm going to be breaking all of these age demographics,

00:13:32.040 all these age categories into their slightly strongly agree, as well as slightly and strongly

00:13:40.520 disagree categories. Because I find this all quite concerning in terms of where the country's going.

00:13:47.320 I'm just realizing I need a better color pen for the slightly disagree because my red looks a little

00:13:52.920 bit too similar. So I want to start with the youngest demographic. And this, it makes sense when you look

00:13:59.880 at it in terms of, of course, younger people would be like this. So young people, 18%,

00:14:08.040 strongly agree that young people are actually I'm doing the wrong one. I was looking at the total

00:14:13.400 there. Sorry. Oh, I'm messing everything up, guys. 7% of people of young people 18 to 29 think young

00:14:22.280 people don't want to do the jobs that foreign workers are being hired for. 31% slightly agree.

00:14:31.560 And then we have 24% slightly disagree. And then we have 17% strongly disagree. And now you will be

00:14:44.360 able to add up the numbers and know that it's not 100%. I'm just leaving the undecideds out of each

00:14:48.680 category. Because that's a it's pretty consistent across the age groups. And it doesn't really matter

00:14:53.960 too much. Undecideds will tend to break the way that they're currently already doing.

00:14:58.680 But already, this makes sense. Younger people don't really, it's a little more 50 50, but more disagree

00:15:05.000 with the notion young people don't want to work the jobs TFWs are working. And I think that obviously,

00:15:11.400 you are going to get people who work better jobs already in this age demographic who think,

00:15:16.680 oh, yeah, of course, young people don't want to work at fast food restaurants. Of course, they don't

00:15:20.200 want the service jobs or any of these jobs in in tourism towns, because they don't personally work

00:15:26.440 them. But there's a large portion of young people saying no, I'd work those jobs if I could actually

00:15:30.840 get hired, especially on the younger side of this age category. Plus, you can't really leave out the

00:15:36.680 fact that there are a lot of young people who are going to be very liberal and think, you know,

00:15:41.800 they support liberal parties or the liberal party and the NDP who support the TFW program federally.

00:15:48.360 And so I also think that is a good thing. And anyone, you know, talking bad against it's just

00:15:53.800 wrong. Young people don't want to work these jobs. Well, now let's move on to 30 of 39. And then I'm

00:15:59.720 just going to fill in the rest of it here and sort of talk as I go. But as you get older, the

00:16:06.120 the strongly agreed increases, maybe I'll just go across the board on this 15% in the age category

00:16:13.080 of 30 to 39. You have 18% in the 40 to 49 category, 12% in the 50 to 59, which actually kind of makes

00:16:23.720 sense. That's kind of Gen Z personality, self starters, you know, of course, people want a job.

00:16:28.440 And then in 60 plus, this is the category that the liberals did very well in during the election,

00:16:34.920 27% believe, I know that's a bit far away, maybe I can just write it next to it. But 27%

00:16:43.720 of voters above the age of 60 believe that young people do not want the jobs that that TFWs are

00:16:50.440 currently occupying. I'm gonna say this is kind of depressing. The thing that you will get in this

00:16:56.200 poll, 41% of other 60 plus voters also somewhat agree with the idea young people don't want these

00:17:04.600 jobs. And then only 17% slightly disagree with that idea. And 9% strongly disagree with that idea.

00:17:16.680 Now, I assume if you're watching my channel, and you are above the age of 60, you are probably more

00:17:22.440 part of the disagree side that you, you know, want your grandkids, you want your kids who are

00:17:27.400 in the younger demographics to be able to get these jobs and not be priced out of the market.

00:17:31.400 But the problem with Canada right now is there's a large group of especially Eastern Canadian voters

00:17:37.000 above the age of 60, who just don't really see a problem with the liberal agenda, they don't really

00:17:42.040 see that young people are struggling, and that the jobs are not available. And in part, it's because

00:17:47.080 of the TFW program. And now the retroactive justification is, well, yeah, your unemployment

00:17:53.000 rate, it's very high, but you don't want to work the job anyway. So who cares, which is kind of a

00:17:57.640 depressing notion. Within the 50 to 59 category, you have another 34% thinking that they slightly agree

00:18:05.320 with the idea young people don't want these jobs, 25% within the 40 to 49, and also 25% within the 30 to 39.

00:18:18.040 And then we have 32% slightly disagreeing with it in the 30 to 39. We have 24 in the 40 to 49.

00:18:28.280 We have 26 in the 50 to 59. And we already finished that one. And then just finishing up with the last

00:18:35.320 little bit here, we have 21% strongly disagreeing in 50 to 59. We have 26% strongly disagreeing in 40 to 49.

00:18:44.280 And we have 18% strongly disagreeing in 30 to 39. Now, you can even again, you can see the sort of

00:18:52.760 generation gaps here. Millennials are actually a little more disproportionately willing to think

00:18:58.280 young people won't work these jobs compared to Gen X people who again tend to actually be

00:19:04.040 disproportionately represented in as small business owners and trades people. And so it's kind of

00:19:09.640 interesting to see that age demographic, having more confidence in young people in certain categories

00:19:14.840 than even the millennials are. But I don't need to belabor this too much. This is the thing I can

00:19:21.880 probably end the video on or I could end up having this thing go on for a long time. In a lot of ways,

00:19:27.320 this chart is the current problem of Canada. We have bad policies. And we just have a lot of voters

00:19:33.480 out there who just think that they're fine. Young people have high unemployment, but they don't want

00:19:38.120 the jobs anyways. So there's a group of Canadians who don't actually see it. And it is across all

00:19:45.000 of the generations. It's just very acute on the older side right now. But we have a group of Canadians

00:19:52.200 who it doesn't matter how bad the problems get. It's not really a problem if you think about it.

00:19:57.720 Who cares, especially that young men going to university can't get a summer job. They wouldn't

00:20:03.320 want it anyways. That's, that's very, you know, it's very easy off the lips if you don't need that job,

00:20:09.560 that that person doesn't want the job anyways. And TFWs are not out competing young Canadian kids who

00:20:15.000 didn't want to apply. TFWs are in fact a subsidized labor base that taxpayers through the government

00:20:22.200 are paying large corporations and even small businesses in order to employ them for a

00:20:26.840 subsidized rate. So where a Canadian kid would maybe in Alberta be getting paid $15 an hour,

00:20:32.680 a TFW, when you add the subsidies in for the business, are paying about $11.50 per hour for

00:20:38.840 that worker. So obviously, this is a very big problem. The LMIA program is massively abused, where

00:20:46.520 you'll post a job for $35 an hour and anyone would probably want to work a management job, not

00:20:51.880 anyone, but you get my point. Anyone kind of where that would be considered a bump up in their wage.

00:20:57.240 Any, a lot of people would work a $35 an hour management job. But the thing is, it's fake jobs.

00:21:03.400 They're basically saying, Oh, I need to fill this 30 to $35, this 30 to $35 an hour job,

00:21:09.800 and I can't find anybody. The secret is they're not even looking, but they need to make this job pay that

00:21:15.480 much, even though it should probably pay about 25 to 27 an hour, because it needs, the wage needs to be that

00:21:21.320 high in order for it to be able to qualify for a TFW placement. Oh, I've already raised the wage a

00:21:27.640 lot. Can't find anyone at this wage. Yes, I haven't even tried, but now I need a temporary foreign worker

00:21:32.920 I can bring in and then I'll just be secretly only paying them $15 an hour or $11 an hour, $15 an hour

00:21:38.760 for the management position. It's completely ridiculous. Anyways, so with that being said,

00:21:45.320 that should be before the end of this video. You can tell I'm getting a bit lightheaded in

00:21:50.120 the end of this video guys. But yeah, I will be back with more whiteboard videos in the future,

00:21:56.440 mostly national polling. But I do like to kind of go off the reservation a little bit and talk

00:22:01.480 about stuff like this sometimes, because again, I believe that this is a big problem in Canadian

00:22:07.640 politics right now. You have young people who want jobs and you have some older liberal voters who

00:22:12.760 don't think they should even get the jobs because, well, TFW's, really it's the TFW's job. Young

00:22:19.640 people don't even want the job. Don't worry, this program works great because it doesn't affect me

00:22:23.960 negatively. Anyways, so with that being said guys, I will see you all later.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - October 01, 2025

Carney on the BRINK - Poll shows Liberal lead fell by 10%

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