The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - June 05, 2026


Carney Risks LOSING upcoming Byelection - CPC lead Liberals 2%

Hosted by
Wyatt Claypool
Mentioned
Jonathan Wilkinson Stephen Curran Mark Carney Steven Guilbeault Avi Lewis Andrew Saxton Elizabeth May Danielle Smith Pierre Pauly John Horgan Don Bell Volunteer Green Tons
CBC Host Gets Absolutely Owned Trying to Spin Mark Carney's Recession Carney Plunged Canada into Recession - CBC Attacks Poilievre Instead!

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Length

15 minutes

Words per minute

172.05

Word count

2,695

Sentence count

128

Harmful content

Toxicity

1

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Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Wyatt Claypool talks about the upcoming by-election in the Vancouver-area riding of North Vancouver-Capilano, British Columbia, Canada, and why it could be a bad day for the Liberal Party of Canada.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 Ahoy everyone, Wyatt Claypool here, back again to talk about some more Canadian national polling
00:00:06.180 numbers. Today on the show we will be just tackling the province of British Columbia,
00:00:11.860 where there's going to be a by-election held in the riding of North Vancouver Capilano that could
00:00:17.680 be trouble for Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney. If you don't already know, this is the current
00:00:23.700 riding of outgoing Liberal MP Jonathan Wilkinson who has held the riding since 2015. He in fact
00:00:31.380 has turned it into a fairly safe Liberal seat. The problem is there's a difference between an
00:00:36.980 inherently safe seat for a party and a politician who makes a seat safe. I think that it's the latter
00:00:44.580 in the case of Jonathan Wilkinson because if you don't know a lot about North Vancouver Capilano
00:00:49.380 I'll just give you a short electoral history. Before 2015, when Jonathan Wilkinson first won
00:00:56.080 it, it was actually a riding that was held for two terms by Conservative MP Andrew Saxton. Before
00:01:03.120 that, it was held for two terms by Liberal MP Don Bell, and before that, it was held for multiple
00:01:09.800 terms by another conservative who held it representing the Conservatives Alliance as well
00:01:16.160 as the Reform Party. The riding has become more left-wing in character over time, the riding has
00:01:22.700 become richer over time, and you get a lot more people with luxury environmentalist beliefs,
00:01:27.680 but that's exactly why this could be a bad riding for the Kearney liberals in a by-election.
00:01:35.220 Yes, Jonathan Wilkinson won it with like 62% of the vote back in 2025, but I think that's just
00:01:41.420 because Jonathan Wilkinson has a particular magnetism that does not actually attach itself
00:01:47.800 to the next liberal inherently. He was able to kind of marry the enviro left as well as the
00:01:53.820 business liberal center and being able to consolidate a lot of that vote in the area
00:01:58.700 that may have normally gone towards the NDP or the Green Party. But what we are seeing right now
00:02:05.660 in regional polls in British Columbia is that the Liberal Party is losing a lot of votes to their
00:02:12.440 left because of the pipeline deal that Carney signed with Alberta Premier Daniel Smith and the
00:02:19.560 resignation of former Environment Minister Stephen Gilbeau, plus some other things that are rubbing
00:02:25.600 people the wrong way, like the recession that has partially benefited the Conservatives.
00:02:30.000 We went from the Liberals having a large lead in British Columbia in both polls to having some new polls now showing actually the Conservative Party leading by a little bit in a poll that is usually not friendly to Conservatives at all.
00:02:46.320 So in just a second here, I want to take you guys through some past liaison poll numbers and their latest numbers showing why North Vancouver Capilano could potentially be won by the Conservative Party or at least deal a support blow to Carney with the Liberals tumbling down a lot of points, not maybe losing the riding, but making it look way closer than it should be in theory.
00:03:11.900 But before I get into the polling numbers, first, I just want to mention, if you live
00:03:16.080 in the riding of North Vancouver Capilano, please get a lawn sign for the conservative
00:03:20.560 candidate Stephen Curran.
00:03:22.480 He ran last election, and now he's going to be running again in the by-election.
00:03:27.040 Please put up a lawn sign.
00:03:28.440 By-election turnouts are always terrible, and anything can happen.
00:03:31.960 Volunteer, donate, get that lawn sign on your lawn.
00:03:34.820 It really does make a difference, especially with the numbers I'm about to tell you.
00:03:38.260 And of course, the normal stuff I always say, if you like the show, leave a like, subscribe if you're not yet a subscriber, and of course, leave a comment with what you think about all this.
00:03:47.780 Anyways, so I want to get into the numbers, and I'll kind of tell the story of what I think is going to happen here as we go along.
00:03:55.340 I'm going to take a liaison poll from not that long ago.
00:03:59.800 In fact, just sort of the start or middle of last month.
00:04:04.340 liaison had the liberals winning in British Columbia overall by six points that's a pretty
00:04:12.520 healthy margin to win BC by but already by this point because Avi Lewis is the new NDP leader and
00:04:20.100 he's from BC it has given the NDP a little bit of the boost but back in mid-May we had the liberal
00:04:28.480 Party at 39% of the vote in the last liaison poll. The Conservatives were at 33%, of course,
00:04:38.400 since the Liberals were leading by six points. Not too bad for them, but not fantastic either.
00:04:44.360 The NDP has actually been cutting into both the Conservatives and the Liberals, simply because
00:04:49.220 there's a lot of kind of working class trade union guys who voted Conservative last time,
00:04:53.060 and a lot of more hippie-ish environmentalists who went to go vote liberal to stop the conservatives.
00:04:59.760 And in that last poll, already the NDP was showing a lot more strength than they used to have in the province.
00:05:05.260 I think they only got like 12% overall last time.
00:05:08.900 But in this new poll, they had 18 points, or this second last poll, they had 18 points, which isn't too bad.
00:05:15.940 It's a decent recovery for the Avi Lewis NDP compared to where Jagmeet Singh plunged them down to.
00:05:22.340 and the Green Party was at just 4%.
00:05:26.740 But now let's jump ahead to the poll that came out just a few days ago.
00:05:32.560 It came out kind of in late May but wasn't released until basically we were into June.
00:05:38.280 This poll now shows in the aftermath of Stephen Gilbeau leaving,
00:05:42.920 Jonathan Wilkinson leaving, and opposing the pipeline on his way out,
00:05:46.380 that letter coming out of at least 14 liberals telling Carney they don't want this pipeline to happen,
00:05:51.400 We now have the Liberals in British Columbia, according to the liaison poll, at 32%.
00:06:01.080 Yes, that is a 7% drop in just a couple of weeks.
00:06:09.060 Then we have the Conservative Party actually leading by two points, having gained just one point, but now up to 34% of the vote provincially.
00:06:21.080 Again, this is a more left-leaning pollster.
00:06:23.920 Maybe you could say that's why it's pumping up the NDP a bit,
00:06:27.360 but usually it benefits the Liberals more often than not.
00:06:30.580 Former liaison polls in BC were having them leading by nine just a couple weeks ago as well.
00:06:35.540 So they went from leading by nine to six and now losing by two.
00:06:40.540 But this new poll has the NDP at a staggering 26% of the vote in British Columbia.
00:06:50.180 And the Green Party even actually was able to maintain what it had, also being able to sit at 4%.
00:06:57.260 So the NDP is actually not hurting the Greens in order to get where it's going.
00:07:01.300 It's effectively only hurting the Liberal Party.
00:07:05.580 Now, the NDP back in the 2025 election only got 4% of the vote in this riding.
00:07:15.500 They're usually used to 20%.
00:07:18.340 Let's just quickly bring up North Vancouver Capilano's just Wikipedia page so I can show
00:07:23.580 you just how much of a fall off it was from last election. And if it even just comes back a bit,
00:07:28.440 how much of a chance it ends up giving to Stephen Curran to win this riding. Check it out. So this
00:07:35.320 is 2025. Actually, Jonathan Wilkinson didn't do as well as I thought, but he ended up gaining 15%
00:07:42.540 of the vote, mainly off of the back of the absolute implosion of the NDP. He got 59.83%
00:07:50.560 of the vote. Stephen Curran got 33.68. And the New Democrat got 4.24% of the vote. The Green only
00:07:58.980 getting 1.7 and the People's Party absolutely falling down to just 0.4%. I doubt the PPC will
00:08:06.140 even bother running a candidate in this riding. If they do, I really severely doubt they're even
00:08:10.900 going to get more than 50 votes. In previous elections, Jonathan Wilkinson and the Liberals
00:08:16.560 usually got around 45% of the vote. And we have the NDP with 19.8. Back in 2019, he got 42%.
00:08:24.340 Andrew Saxton trying to run again only got 26. New Democrats 16. But that was a riding. That was
00:08:30.440 an election where the Greens really threw everything they had at and got 12.5. And when
00:08:35.960 he first got in, Jonathan Wilkinson cleared 56% of the vote. But again, Jonathan Wilkinson isn't
00:08:42.600 running in this election, and that really does matter, because to hold down a riding that has
00:08:48.020 a lot of, I would say, different factions of voters in it, you need someone with a lot of broad appeal.
00:08:52.920 Jonathan Wilkinson kind of, I believe he was a lawyer, might have also been a businessman, but he
00:08:57.120 has that business feel to him. Oftentimes the resume doesn't really mean much compared to just
00:09:02.520 what the feel of the politician is. Tons of working class people really liked a former BC
00:09:08.360 Premier John Horgan because he felt working class, even though he wasn't working class at all. I
00:09:14.000 believe he was just some sort of union lawyer or something like that. Yes, technically works with
00:09:19.920 unions, but it's not exactly like he was ever working in the mines. Maybe he was, but that was
00:09:25.100 a long time ago, and he was a very corporate progressive when you actually saw his governing
00:09:30.320 style. Jonathan Wilkinson is kind of the same way. He is an unhinged environmentalist. He hates
00:09:36.320 pipelines. He opposes the pipeline from Alberta to the West Coast. Now, we all know that Carney's
00:09:43.320 not actually wanting to build a pipeline, but he at least wants to pretend to build a pipeline.
00:09:47.140 But even that is too much for people like Jonathan Wilkinson and Stephen Gilbeau,
00:09:51.620 who are signing letters against Carney and caucus, releasing the fact that many MPs do not
00:09:56.940 support this plan, especially on the West Coast. We now also have the Musqueam agreement that Mark
00:10:01.900 Carney signed that's taking off landowners all over the Lower Mainland, and you better believe
00:10:06.260 it's going to take off the fairly wealthy homeowners in the North Vancouver Capilano
00:10:10.720 riding. And then you have other sorts of things going on, like the bullying scandal coming out of
00:10:16.000 the Liberal Party, where Liberal MPs are starting to leak on Mark Carney that he's treating them
00:10:21.120 poorly, and he's dismissive, and he has a very authoritarian style in the office. All this is
00:10:26.440 leading up to a by-election where Avi Lewis needs to throw everything in the kitchen sink at this
00:10:32.400 by-election. He's not running in it, and I understand why. It's not traditional NDP territory
00:10:37.300 exactly, and he doesn't want to get embarrassed by losing as the leader. But he still needs to
00:10:41.980 pump up the NDP numbers as high as humanly possible to demonstrate we're back. He needs
00:10:47.560 that we're back moment. Yes, we didn't win, but we went from 4% last election, and guess what?
00:10:52.120 we hit 23%. If the NDP gets to 20%, probably Stephen Curran wins. Because if you only got 59%
00:11:00.860 of the vote, which is obviously nothing to sneeze at for the Liberals last election, but the NDP
00:11:05.700 goes from 4 to 20, well, naturally, the 16% they're going to use to get there is either going
00:11:12.560 to come out of the Greens, which they never had much in the first place, or it's going to come
00:11:16.400 out of the Liberals. And if they lose 16 points and Stephen Curran's able to maintain that 33%
00:11:23.420 or maybe even increase it a little bit, this could be starting to become a very tight election,
00:11:29.360 especially if the Greens also grow, because the Green Party should also be throwing a lot at this
00:11:34.260 by-election to prove that without Elizabeth May in the future, they are still a healthy party.
00:11:40.380 But before I kind of wrap up here, I just want to again demonstrate the kind of changes we're
00:11:45.400 seeing in the numbers. This was just a couple weeks ago, and this is last week. We had the
00:11:52.160 Liberals losing 7% of the vote. We have the Conservatives increasing by 1%, demonstrating
00:12:00.660 that they're at least holding on to what they have. The NDP are going up by another 8 points
00:12:07.640 since the last poll was conducted, and the Greens are able to maintain the 4% they have.
00:12:13.740 Now, this riding, again, without the leadership factor of Jonathan Wilkinson in the riding,
00:12:19.440 is probably going to go back to how the riding used to be, maybe if not a little bit more liberal
00:12:24.360 because of the whole ongoing endorsement factor of maybe Jonathan Wilkinson.
00:12:29.740 We're going to do Jonathan proud by showing up and voting liberal for him.
00:12:33.660 I'm wondering if he actually even endorses the liberals in this by-election,
00:12:37.280 or he's mad at Carney for even talking about a pipeline, even though he's not actually building one.
00:12:42.520 But that's always that really confusing issue we have going on.
00:12:47.580 Stephen Gilboa is mad about a pipeline that's never going to happen, but he's mad because he doesn't even want people talking positively about a pipeline.
00:12:54.780 It's a lot of stuff. And then factor in the fact that we are in a recession.
00:12:59.180 We are in a recession. We have Carney moving away, at least rhetorically, from the environmental left, pushing a lot of NDP, liberal voters back towards the NDP.
00:13:09.120 We have the Musqueam deal undermining people's property title in the area.
00:13:13.680 We also have the Cowichan Agreement also demonstrating other bans could potentially sue for land title in the area.
00:13:18.760 And you have a perfect cocktail to have good conservative turnout and very kind of limp, wimpy, liberal turnout, if not liberal defections towards the other left-wing parties.
00:13:31.900 Very big opportunity here for Pierre Pauly and the conservatives.
00:13:35.240 They need to throw everything at the wall they have for this one.
00:13:37.940 And they cannot let the pressure off Mark Carney on the property issue, on the recession, and they really need Avi Lewis and the NDP to be fully funded.
00:13:48.560 If anything, conservative big donors should consider maybe throwing a couple thousand bucks at the NDP candid in this riding to make sure they are as disruptive as possible to the Carney liberal by-election candidate.
00:14:02.040 I don't know if they've chosen someone yet. Carney, knowing his personality, is just going to pick someone very corporate and safe. Some person who, you know, once worked at a lobbying firm or whatever, someone who once worked at a liberal accounting firm. That's kind of his style. And I'm not sure if that's exactly going to galvanize the voters in the same way that Jonathan Wilkinson could by marrying, again, the green left and the kind of business center into his voter coalition.
00:14:30.960 Well, with all that being said, thank you guys for watching this video.
00:14:34.920 Make sure, again, if you live in the North Vancouver Capilano riding,
00:14:38.540 get a lawn sign for Stephen Curran.
00:14:40.540 I will be linking that in the description below.
00:14:43.580 And if you live even close to the area, make sure you show up and volunteer.
00:14:47.920 I might even fly into Vancouver just to do a week or so,
00:14:51.380 helping Stephen Curran out on the doors,
00:14:53.480 because we really need to do some damage here to Mark Carney in by-elections like this.
00:14:58.080 And in fact, there is actually a chance that the liberals could end up losing Stephen Gilbeau's riding because of all the stupid mistakes and missteps that Carney has made, both on betraying the green left that was part of his voter coalition, as well as just like messing with the French by saying that, well, even if you voted to separate, maybe I don't even recognize the referendum vote, where even if someone's a nationalist but not a separatist,
00:15:25.560 that might take them off enough into voting for the Bloc Quebecois just to spite Mark Carney. 0.66
00:15:30.620 But with all that being said, thank you guys for watching.
00:15:33.280 Like, share, subscribe.
00:15:35.220 Go get that lawn sign if you're a North Vancouver Capilano.
00:15:38.040 And I'll see you guys all later.