I want to throw a bucket of cold water on all the Liberals who think that now that Mark Carney has replaced Justin Trudeau as the Liberal Party Leader, now they have a good chance of winning the next election. Nay nay, that is not what is going to happen.
00:00:00.000Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. I want to make this video today to throw a bucket of cold water on all the liberals who feel like now that Mark Carney has replaced Justin Trudeau as the Liberal Party leader, now they have a really good chance of winning the next federal election.
00:00:18.320Nay nay, that is not what is going to happen. When you actually look at the consistent polling, the polling done by pollsters whose numbers aren't all over the place, it shows that while the liberals have received a bump in the polling because the leader is no longer Justin Trudeau, that doesn't actually mean that Canadians like them still.
00:00:38.380I am discounting pretty much any pollster who cannot give me consistent numbers on who's ahead and who is behind. I am putting Leger in the corner of shame and it must now wear the hat of shame because two weeks ago they said the conservatives were leading by three points.
00:00:56.080And then last week they said the conservatives are leading by 13 points. And just yesterday they said the conservatives are now tied with the liberals.
00:01:04.900That is not how polling works. That is not how public opinion changes. You go sit in the corner of shame.
00:01:11.200The only two pollsters I am following at this point are Abacus Data and Innovative Research because they actually seem to understand how to reduce response bias in their polls.
00:01:21.760Make sure that their polls are not just being given to people in Starbucks lineups in downtown Toronto, making it look like the liberals are surging even in southwest Ontario when working class men are the big stumbling block for the Liberal Party right now.
00:01:37.340That is one of the big issues going on right now for the Liberal Party.
00:01:41.560Mark Carney can look silly wearing a hat at a steel plant and that is not bringing back the men who have basically been talked down to by the Liberal Party for 10 years at this point and are not considering voting for them anymore.
00:01:57.340Most of the gains that the liberals have been making, even in these pollsters I like, they have been gaining in even these polls, has mostly been among people in suburban or urban areas and mostly women.
00:02:09.540And the issue for the Liberals is those voters are still more accessible to the Conservatives than men and people who work in trades are to the Liberals.
00:02:20.500So there is a kind of issue where the Conservatives are ahead and their lead is shrinking, but they're quickly starting to hit their floor.
00:02:28.160The floor for the Conservatives, at least in my opinion, is 38%.
00:02:32.740They are never going to fall below 38%, which is a pretty comfortable floor considering they only got 34% in 2021.
00:02:40.960I would be shocked if they got below 40% in the federal election and really all they need is about 41.5% to 42% in order to secure a majority.
00:02:50.420And I want to take you guys through today the innovative research polls from last week and this week, last week showing them only up on the Liberals by 7% and this week showing them up by 10% and specifically the demographic groups that Mark Carney is having a problem with.
00:03:06.960They even pull Mark Carney's approval rating and it's now slipping down from the positives to the negatives and he's only seen as well as Pierre Polyev is, which is not great for a Liberal because you have tons of media propaganda on your side.
00:03:22.200And if people are already mostly not liking him, that's a big problem.
00:03:27.680Conservatives are used to having negative approval ratings because there's so much anti-Conservative propaganda, about 50% of Canadians will just say, oh, it's the Conservative, well, I suppose I don't like him.
00:03:39.540Where a lot of people tend to give the Liberal or the NDP leader a lot more of the benefit of the doubt.
00:03:45.200Anyways, before I get into the innovative research poll, guys, just make sure to like this video, subscribe to the channel, comment, do all that great stuff.
00:03:55.500In fact, share this video with any of your panicking Conservative friends who think Mark Carney is some big political juggernaut and he is going to, like, steal Pierre Polyev's soul in the next election.
00:04:06.680It's not happening. Mark Carney is still a boring, uncharismatic leader.
00:04:10.540You know, we rejected Stefan Dion, we rejected Michael Ignatieff, I don't know why suddenly Canadians would be, like, pro-Carney.
00:04:18.280There is not enough Trump propaganda on the planet to make Pierre Polyev look bad, especially as Trump has condemned him.
00:04:25.380And also, people don't really care because people care about domestic issues.
00:04:29.760Anyways, here is the innovative research poll from last week.
00:04:34.400This is actually the personality test they give to people before they poll them.
00:04:38.400It makes sure that they're not having massive outlier polls because they're ensuring that, you know, the personality of Canadians are not going to shift massively overnight.
00:04:49.480So, they break up people into these different categories as pay-as-you-go moderates, populist Conservatives, deferential Conservatives, business Liberals, left Liberals, and core left.
00:05:00.780This poll from last week actually seemed to have more core left, left Liberals and business Liberals than usual.
00:05:08.020And even in this poll, where those demographics are, like, at 61% or something like that, 64%, even in this poll, with not as many Conservatives and moderates polled, the Conservatives were still leading by seven points.
00:05:22.740And that's because, and I'll just scroll down here quickly, see they are leading 38 to 31, NDP at 16.
00:05:30.140This is also why I trust innovative research.
00:05:33.280Are the NDP floundering right now with Jagmeet Singh as their completely toothless leader?
00:05:38.840Sure, but the NDP is fundamentally a cult, and about 14% of people are, like, blood-bound to vote for them every single election, whether they have a chance or not.
00:07:07.600This is the leadership aspect of it all.
00:07:10.480Mark Carney, when he first announced, was polling at probably a plus 2 or a plus 3.
00:07:16.060And then for a brief bit of time, he was polling around, you know, plus 7, plus 9.
00:07:21.560And that's natural that he's not going to be wildly popular or wildly unpopular when he first announces, because nobody knows anything about him.
00:07:30.280For a long time, Pierre Polyev, or just Conservative leaders in general, had very bad reputations, being in the negative 20 or 15 range.
00:07:39.220When Polyev became Conservative leader, after several months, when it got into the spring and summer of 2023, he started getting a positive approval rating.
00:07:48.920Again, because of anti-Conservative propaganda, he was only ever hovering around, like, plus 4, plus 5 or so.
00:07:56.020But that is a big win for the Conservatives.
00:07:58.220Back in around February or December-ish, then he dipped down when the Liberal leadership race was going on.
00:08:04.960And people who were maybe default Liberals, who couldn't bring themselves to vote Liberal again, knowing that, hey, it might be a better leader.
00:08:12.760It might not be Justin Trudeau anymore.
00:08:14.380Then they kind of turned on the Conservatives for a brief bit to see what was going on.
00:08:18.940And now you'll see, as the Liberal leadership race was kind of finishing up, and it was very clear it was going to be Mark Carney, basically 95% chance it was going to be him.
00:08:27.900And it was almost guaranteed to be him, because it was effectively a WWE-staged leadership race.
00:08:37.660Not amazing, but it's actually pretty decent for a Conservative.
00:08:40.220But Mark Carney is now at a negative 3% rating, very early on to his leadership, despite constant gushing coverage of his campaign, constant gushing coverage of his resume.
00:08:53.040And again, Canadians are not going to vote for people based on their resumes.
00:08:58.760We are not French voters in France who need politicians to write very eloquent-sounding memoirs before the campaign to show that they're literary men and women, even though they still suck at their jobs.
00:09:11.980We more so care about, hey, what's the person's actual record?
00:09:15.240And as Mark Carney's record has come out, it hasn't been great.
00:09:18.280Now, I want to show you guys another poll that I think is quite telling.
00:09:25.620There is a poll question that Innovative Research has been asking people, that the poll question goes like this on screen.
00:09:34.540They ask people, do you agree or disagree with the following statement?
00:09:38.020And it says, the Liberals may have their problems, but they're still the best party to form government.
00:09:58.940And then you have somewhat disagree 10%, strongly disagree 31%, and don't know 3%.
00:10:04.940Remember, too, that somewhat agree and neither agree nor disagree are going to have people who vote NDP and block in it and green as well, because they know they can't form government.
00:10:16.000Right now, the Liberals are running with a soft base of 13% core Liberals and 9% soft Liberals who are effectively the people they're having to rely on.
00:10:27.900They don't even have above a 20% core base of Liberals who think that they are the best people for the job.
00:10:35.180The problem there is that the Conservatives, and what you'll see is there are, on this own bar graph, in this question, the people who were not in favor of the Liberals forming government, 28% are rated as hostile to the Liberals.
00:10:55.520The Liberals literally have, like, a half to a third of the people that would hate them like them enough that they're probably going to vote for them.
00:11:05.780And I say probably because 13% are definitely, 9% are generally committed but could be swayed.
00:11:13.520I want to go find if I can find the chart of men right now.
00:11:17.100The problem that they have is that they are relying, again, like I've been saying, on voters who are actually more likely to switch to the Conservatives than Conservatives are relying on voters who might switch to the Liberals.
00:11:39.320This is always the annoying thing with pollsters, is that they'll have great poll results, but then by the next poll, they stop showing you as much detail.
00:11:47.220But yes, the main gain, actually, that the Conservatives have made, outside of just men in general, has specifically been people who work in private sector unions.
00:11:55.980Those people who work on construction sites, oil rigs, who work in even grocery stores and whatnot, they don't like the inflation the Liberals have brought on.
00:12:06.860And Carney can try and run away from it.
00:12:08.660But the problem is right now, the advertisements already write themselves.
00:12:12.600And I'm also going to show you guys the chart of the current polls, because I think it also gives the lie to some pollsters, like being on to something when they can't seem to decide where they actually stand on how the Liberals and Conservatives are doing.
00:13:15.800It's basically where they were in August of 2023, and they were not doing well back then.
00:13:20.520So they are currently at August 2023 numbers, when the Liberals were in full panic mode.
00:13:25.480And yet, I'm supposed to be panicking as a Conservative, believing that the Liberals are making a big comeback when they are at the numbers where the Liberals knew they were screwed back in August.
00:13:37.340And again, most people think it's generally time for change, but yeah, and there are good alternatives.
00:13:42.50048% believe that it's time for change, and there are good alternatives.
00:13:45.52032% still want change, but they're not sure if there are good alternatives.
00:13:49.860And those people can be swayed if they see enough good messaging from different parties.
00:13:59.780His disapproval rating is climbing up faster than his approval rating has been.
00:14:04.380He got an initial shock of approval at the very start because he was running for the Liberals, so a bunch of Liberals start saying they like him.
00:14:10.280But since then, he went from 33 to 36 in three or four weeks, but he went from 20 to 26 in those same three or four weeks.
00:14:21.120And now I just want to quickly move on to the gender stuff because I do think it is a good, you know, I think it is a good general study of what people are thinking.
00:14:32.280Here's men and women in this poll that puts the Conservatives plus 12 ahead of the Liberals.
00:14:40.700Again, assume it's over-polling the Conservatives by a couple of points.
00:14:52.000But you go to women, on this one, the Conservatives are still winning 39 to 30.
00:14:56.000Even if you tighten that up more, the Liberals need to be decisively winning one of the genders or they are going to lose.
00:15:03.160Because the Conservatives are already decisively winning men, like by double digits.
00:15:08.200They are winning them, what is that, 15-point lead on men, whereas the Conservatives still have a 9-point lead.
00:15:16.140Even if that shrinks down and they're tied on women, the Conservatives still win.
00:15:20.000The Liberals are only, right now, gaining ground when it comes to, like, urban and suburban areas that they already won back in 2021.
00:15:31.000They're still in the rebuilding phase.
00:15:34.220But anyways, one thing I do want to address here is that, can the Conservatives lose?
00:15:40.900Of course, literally any party can win or lose because things happen.
00:15:45.880I think right now, the election is really deciding, are the Conservatives going to get a majority government or a minority government?
00:15:53.240And in effect, you could say a minority is a loss because the rhetoric coming out of the Liberals and the NDP and the Greens and the Bloc are that the Conservatives are so bad, maybe the Bloc would work with them.
00:16:04.700But in general, the Conservatives are so bad, we have to stop them.
00:16:08.900And it would be hypocritical of them to then say, well, Conservatives got a minority government, we'll let them govern for a couple of years.
00:16:15.280They would probably just form a coalition to keep the Conservatives out.
00:16:19.140So it is the Conservative Party's duty right now to not just win, but win hard.
00:16:24.980And this is why I bring up, guys, you need to be focused on the win.
00:16:31.040I hate it whenever the polls start slipping, the Conservatives lose confidence in themselves, and they start circling the wagons and playing it safe.
00:16:39.940Sorry, was Polyev gaining massive popularity from playing it safe?
00:16:43.720Are any of the big issues that the Liberals are currently unpopular with soft, moderate issues?
00:16:50.820No, they're very passionate issues about crime, immigration, taxation, drugs, parental rights.
00:16:59.440These are all hot-blooded political issues.
00:17:01.980And if you start getting scared of them because they have a controversial tint to them, even if most people agree with you, you will lose.