The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Carney's leadership campaign is in BIG Trouble - Team Trudeau flops

00:00:00.000 A big indicator that the Liberal Party is very fragile right now,

00:00:05.080 Mark Carney, the supposed golden child in the Liberal Party leadership race,

00:00:09.940 is not doing very well.

00:00:12.240 This was supposed to be a big coronation of Mark Carney

00:00:15.280 because Justin Trudeau and pretty much all of Team Trudeau

00:00:18.900 is behind him selling memberships for him,

00:00:21.740 basically making it out to be that this guy is the one to beat Pierre Polyev.

00:00:26.660 He's such a star. He's so great.

00:00:28.860 And I have some polling numbers to show you that demonstrate that

00:00:32.860 he's just a boring candidate, like I've been saying.

00:00:36.380 He's like Michael Ignatieff again. He's like Stefan Dion.

00:00:40.000 In fact, he's a lot like Kim Campbell.

00:00:42.900 Kim Campbell, upon winning the PC Party leadership race in 1993,

00:00:47.820 had the PC polling numbers shoot up and even actually pass the Liberals at one point

00:00:53.040 until they started crashing all the way back down to Earth

00:00:56.660 because it turns out just slapping a new paint job on a dead party

00:01:01.540 does not make the party suddenly very popular again.

00:01:05.360 This is a soft prediction I've been making around Mark Carney for several videos now

00:01:10.080 where I've been talking about the Liberal leadership race.

00:01:12.980 Every time I've seen an Angus Reid poll or a Leger poll

00:01:16.560 saying that Mark Carney was at 58% support with Liberal supporters,

00:01:21.100 I've been very doubtful if that was actually going to be true with Liberal Party members

00:01:26.340 because those who are not actually voting in the leadership race

00:01:30.800 are probably just going to select who they hear about the most in news articles,

00:01:35.680 whereas members who get the candidates' emails and watch them at rallies

00:01:40.520 and they see their interviews,

00:01:42.580 they're far less likely to actually be swayed by just seeing a bunch of articles

00:01:47.500 in the Toronto Star saying how great Mark Carney is

00:01:50.580 and how Pierre Paulyev is super scared of him.

00:01:53.540 But before I get into the polling results here, guys,

00:01:56.600 just a reminder, make sure to like this video, subscribe to the channel.

00:02:01.000 I am putting my mind and body on the line covering this Liberal Party leadership race

00:02:05.720 because it is as boring as watching paint dry.

00:02:09.420 If this leadership race was a pharmaceutical,

00:02:12.480 the bottle would say do not operate heavy machinery after taking

00:02:16.960 because it will put you to sleep.

00:02:19.480 Anyways, I also leave a comment.

00:02:21.720 Say who you think is going to win this leadership race

00:02:23.960 because it actually looks competitive.

00:02:26.340 But in this new Main Street research poll,

00:02:29.060 and I can't show you the lower data tables because I pay to see those

00:02:32.900 and there is sort of some sensitivity at Main Street

00:02:35.200 on paying to see the data and then showing the public the data.

00:02:39.020 But the methodology here reads,

00:02:40.780 and this was actually kind of surprising to me,

00:02:42.740 it says the analysis in this report

00:02:44.640 is based on the results of a survey conducted from Friday, February 7th,

00:02:49.300 to Monday, February 10th, 2025,

00:02:52.300 among a sample of 1,196 adults

00:02:55.820 who are members of the Liberal Party of Canada.

00:02:58.960 That is really surprising to me.

00:03:01.220 It's generally pretty difficult to actually get a hold of real members

00:03:06.920 and polling just members of a party.

00:03:09.620 Naturally, people who are members of a party are more likely to take polls

00:03:13.040 because they're very plugged in on politics,

00:03:15.340 and if they hear a pollster, they're probably actually excited to take it.

00:03:18.540 But it's still difficult.

00:03:19.920 There's only 400,000 people who have active Liberal memberships

00:03:23.840 who can vote in this thing.

00:03:24.840 So the fact that they got like 0.2% of the population,

00:03:29.900 they found those people,

00:03:31.380 the poll is pretty wild to me.

00:03:33.640 Anyways, so, but let's move on to the top line results,

00:03:38.100 and this is probably all I'm going to show,

00:03:40.000 but it paints a picture.

00:03:41.660 This right here says,

00:03:43.240 oh, never mind,

00:03:43.860 this is how many people in a household have memberships.

00:03:48.120 Okay, going down, sorry.

00:03:49.760 And it says,

00:03:51.020 in the upcoming leadership contest of the Liberal Party of Canada,

00:03:54.920 how would you vote if the election was held today?

00:03:57.920 And this is on your first ballot

00:04:00.200 because it is a ranked ballot system

00:04:03.060 where you basically say number one, two, three, four, five,

00:04:07.080 and your ballot basically gets submitted in that order.

00:04:10.660 If your top line choice is knocked out,

00:04:12.620 it goes down to the next one

00:04:13.700 unless that person's already knocked down,

00:04:15.540 and then it goes to the next one

00:04:16.660 until one of the candidates has more than 50%.

00:04:19.760 But look at this,

00:04:21.140 because again,

00:04:22.060 Carney is supposedly a juggernaut,

00:04:24.000 and Katie Telford and Gerald Butts

00:04:25.560 and Justin Trudeau are pushing his campaign up,

00:04:28.680 so how could he possibly lose?

00:04:30.960 Well, Mark Carney is only at 38%.

00:04:34.980 He's in the lead,

00:04:36.900 but he's only leading Christia Freeland,

00:04:39.080 who is an absolute wet sandwich of a candidate.

00:04:42.600 He's only leading her by nine points.

00:04:44.440 She's at 29.

00:04:45.760 He's at 38.

00:04:46.680 Karina Gould is at 18.

00:04:48.240 We have Ruby Dalla at five, 0.96

00:04:50.580 and we have Frank Bayless at two,

00:04:52.860 with eight percent left undecided.

00:04:55.720 You know, now Mark Carney could win still.

00:04:58.880 38% is nothing to sneeze at here.

00:05:00.980 He is still the front runner.

00:05:03.120 But the way I had had this race portrayed to me

00:05:06.460 by liberal Carney cheerleaders online,

00:05:09.380 the mainstream media,

00:05:10.520 and other pollsters,

00:05:11.480 is that this is just going to be a mop-up job for Carney.

00:05:14.400 People want Carney because he's so popular, supposedly.

00:05:18.620 And I just don't see it.

00:05:20.020 And Main Street Research even recently just put out a poll

00:05:22.540 showing that the liberals would in fact win

00:05:24.360 if Mark Carney is the leader of the party.

00:05:26.640 Now, I don't believe that

00:05:28.360 because he doesn't have high name recognition.

00:05:31.800 How can you be so in the lead

00:05:33.800 at the same time nobody knows who you are?

00:05:36.780 That proves to me that there's just a response bias right now

00:05:40.360 for liberals in polls

00:05:42.380 that because of their leadership race going on

00:05:45.060 and because Justin Trudeau is gone

00:05:46.820 and they're less depressed about voting liberal,

00:05:49.380 their answering rate of a poll has increased a lot.

00:05:53.160 And they're disproportionately answering polls

00:05:55.420 to their actual support in society.

00:05:58.180 I think Abacus Data has been doing a really good job

00:06:00.980 of measuring and balancing its demographics

00:06:03.460 because here's the thing about polls.

00:06:05.040 I know I talk about polls a lot.

00:06:07.180 Forgive me unless you like the polling videos

00:06:09.020 then thank me and like the video.

00:06:11.560 But the thing about polls

00:06:12.900 is that even if you have a poll

00:06:15.480 that is properly balanced between men and women,

00:06:18.360 you should always have a little bit more women than men 1.00

00:06:20.120 because women tend to vote a little bit more than men.

00:06:22.920 You have the proper balance of age demographics

00:06:25.800 obviously disproportionately having more older voters

00:06:29.140 than younger voters

00:06:30.000 because younger voters are less likely to vote.

00:06:32.180 That's all good.

00:06:32.900 But the problem is if you have technically the right balance

00:06:37.940 of men and women

00:06:38.620 and the different age demographics and income levels,

00:06:41.200 if your poll is too GTA-based and too metropolitan

00:06:45.460 and too obviously liberal and not working class enough,

00:06:49.980 then you'll have a poll that's going to say

00:06:51.960 that the liberals are going to win

00:06:53.100 because you basically only accidentally,

00:06:56.160 and it might be by accident,

00:06:57.380 I don't think Frank Craves is doing this all by accident, 0.99

00:06:59.760 and I think his polls just suck. 0.70

00:07:01.420 But a lot of the other pollsters, 0.98

00:07:02.720 I think by accident,

00:07:04.600 their polls are basically telling you

00:07:06.860 what an election in Toronto-St. Paul

00:07:09.400 or University-Rosedale would look like

00:07:12.760 because of who is answering the polls.

00:07:14.960 Technically, they have the right mix of men and women 0.93

00:07:17.300 in their polls,

00:07:18.300 but all the men are very metropolitan

00:07:20.000 compared to,

00:07:21.480 there's not enough plumbers,

00:07:22.500 there's not enough farmers,

00:07:24.140 there's not enough small business owners.

00:07:26.780 In the mix,

00:07:28.340 there's too many office workers, 0.80

00:07:29.780 government employees,

00:07:30.700 and all that stuff.

00:07:31.440 I'd love for them to ask people

00:07:32.920 what sector they work in

00:07:34.760 so that we know we're not having too many people

00:07:36.920 who are public sector workers

00:07:38.560 answering these polls

00:07:39.740 or public contractors

00:07:40.860 because I guarantee

00:07:41.640 that is a big part of what's happening.

00:07:44.360 And JJ McCullough and I

00:07:45.860 agreed on this today.

00:07:47.820 I'm trying to find the tweet.

00:07:49.360 But JJ McCullough and I

00:07:52.600 agreed on this one thing today

00:07:54.760 that was, I think,

00:07:56.440 a pretty good point.

00:07:57.860 That right now,

00:07:59.540 Mark Carney has no actual,

00:08:03.220 I'm trying to pull up the tweet,

00:08:04.300 he has no actual name recognition.

00:08:06.140 So when the Liberals are also polling high,

00:08:08.760 what I assume is happening

00:08:09.900 is a lot of Canadians

00:08:11.000 are just looking at him

00:08:12.840 as a generic Liberal.

00:08:15.280 And so he is the fill-in-the-blank candidate,

00:08:17.480 just like Kamala Harris 0.96

00:08:18.700 ended up being for a little bit.

00:08:20.560 You just fit,

00:08:21.400 they are a blank space

00:08:22.860 that you just fill up.

00:08:24.060 This was a month ago,

00:08:25.480 right when the leadership race

00:08:26.640 was kicking off,

00:08:27.560 as JJ McCullough is pointing out.

00:08:29.000 This was an abacus data poll.

00:08:31.000 This is Mark Carney's ratings.

00:08:33.160 24% of people

00:08:34.720 could name Mark Carney

00:08:36.500 when they saw his photo.

00:08:38.500 76% of people could not.

00:08:41.520 And while, yes,

00:08:42.380 he's getting a lot of coverage right now,

00:08:44.480 I assure you

00:08:45.780 that his name recognition

00:08:47.340 has not punched above 40%.

00:08:49.380 Because most people

00:08:50.220 don't watch the news,

00:08:51.340 do not read political coverage

00:08:53.120 in the papers,

00:08:53.840 and he is still

00:08:55.340 just some random,

00:08:56.640 boring central banker.

00:08:58.300 So that's his problem.

00:08:59.540 He could easily lose

00:09:00.440 this Liberal leadership race.

00:09:02.120 There is a French debate coming up.

00:09:04.140 Mark Carney's French

00:09:05.320 is not very good.

00:09:06.920 And I'm saying this

00:09:07.720 as somebody

00:09:08.140 who can't speak a lick of French,

00:09:09.780 but I've been told

00:09:10.560 that his French is meh,

00:09:12.240 and he's going to be on stage

00:09:14.120 with Chrystia Freeland,

00:09:15.940 Karina Gould,

00:09:16.640 and especially Frank Bayless,

00:09:18.080 who is a Montrealer,

00:09:19.500 and their French

00:09:20.500 is obviously either

00:09:21.780 fully native

00:09:22.520 or much more practiced

00:09:23.920 than his is.

00:09:25.260 So I think that

00:09:26.140 whatever his Quebec support

00:09:27.620 looks like,

00:09:28.660 I'm not sure if it's

00:09:29.280 his best province

00:09:30.040 or his worst province,

00:09:30.920 but he needs votes

00:09:31.820 anywhere he can get them,

00:09:33.340 that his Quebec voter base

00:09:35.000 could start leaving

00:09:36.160 when they realize,

00:09:37.080 ooh, the guy's

00:09:37.800 not going to look very good

00:09:38.920 next to Pierre Poly

00:09:39.980 on stage

00:09:40.560 if his French is like this.

00:09:42.560 And again,

00:09:43.360 even in the English debate,

00:09:44.520 Ruby Dalla,

00:09:45.320 I know she cannot speak French

00:09:46.620 and she wants a translator.

00:09:47.940 I've seen people do that

00:09:48.820 for debates in the past.

00:09:50.180 Maybe she can't even go 0.94

00:09:51.260 to the French debate,

00:09:52.320 but at the English debate,

00:09:53.900 her and Chrystia Freeland

00:09:54.940 and Frank Bayless,

00:09:56.960 their only path to victory

00:09:58.600 or path to having

00:10:00.000 some success in politics

00:10:01.940 post this leadership race

00:10:03.440 by making a name

00:10:04.240 of themselves,

00:10:05.300 their only path

00:10:06.160 is ripping the bark

00:10:07.940 off of Mark Carney.

00:10:09.600 If I was Chrystia Freeland's,

00:10:11.720 campaign team,

00:10:13.080 I would basically have her

00:10:15.100 in the middle of the debate

00:10:16.040 and I don't like

00:10:16.880 Chrystia Freeland at all.

00:10:17.920 I'm a conservative.

00:10:18.680 I don't like any of these people

00:10:19.760 except Ruby Dalla 0.98

00:10:20.640 who's kind of funny.

00:10:22.020 But if I was Chrystia Freeland's

00:10:23.860 campaign team,

00:10:24.560 I would have Chrystia 1.00

00:10:25.620 turn to Mark Carney

00:10:27.380 during the debate,

00:10:28.580 especially if he ever

00:10:29.460 accuses you of failing

00:10:30.940 as finance minister

00:10:31.940 and say,

00:10:33.060 Mark,

00:10:33.960 for the last four years

00:10:35.440 that I was finance minister,

00:10:36.900 I was having to implement

00:10:38.740 every single bad policy

00:10:40.820 that you were advising

00:10:42.600 Justin Trudeau on.

00:10:43.920 In fact,

00:10:44.340 I was forced to pass

00:10:45.420 all of your bad policies

00:10:46.460 and then you and Justin

00:10:47.960 blamed me for it

00:10:49.280 because you guys 1.00

00:10:50.100 are cowardly weasels. 1.00

00:10:52.240 That would be 0.96

00:10:52.960 an absolute blockbuster moment

00:10:54.720 if someone turns to him

00:10:55.600 and says,

00:10:56.340 you're an obvious insider

00:10:57.540 and you won't even put

00:10:58.880 your money where your mouth is.

00:11:00.280 You've been basically

00:11:01.240 crashing this country's finances

00:11:03.560 for the past four years

00:11:05.100 in the background

00:11:05.920 and after failing

00:11:07.220 for four years

00:11:07.940 because nobody knew

00:11:08.980 specifically you were

00:11:10.140 the one who failed,

00:11:11.180 you're suddenly here

00:11:11.960 to become prime minister

00:11:13.060 like you deserve

00:11:13.900 a corner office.

00:11:15.300 That's what I would do.

00:11:16.540 If I'm Ruby Dahl,

00:11:17.440 I would just start

00:11:18.000 throwing haymakers

00:11:18.820 at everyone

00:11:19.380 because she's like

00:11:20.360 basically running

00:11:21.240 as a conservative

00:11:21.960 and I would basically

00:11:23.200 go after Mark Carney

00:11:24.240 for being an elitist

00:11:25.160 central banker

00:11:25.860 who believes in

00:11:26.640 central bank digital currencies

00:11:27.920 and is a high

00:11:29.440 immigration freak. 0.96

00:11:30.940 Like the guy

00:11:31.380 who speaks for

00:11:32.060 the Century Institute,

00:11:33.880 the organization

00:11:34.460 that wants Canada's

00:11:35.520 population to get

00:11:36.480 to 100 million

00:11:37.660 by 2050.

00:11:39.300 That is the thing

00:11:39.960 that is not said enough.

00:11:41.640 Mark Carney is boring

00:11:42.640 which hides the fact 1.00

00:11:43.920 that he's a loon 0.98

00:11:44.860 and if the conservatives 0.93

00:11:46.520 and Polyev

00:11:47.780 or his liberal

00:11:48.660 leadership opponents

00:11:49.540 can make that known

00:11:50.820 that this guy

00:11:51.480 is not compelling

00:11:52.500 and he's actually 0.96

00:11:53.520 a loon bag,

00:11:54.940 you can't not beat

00:11:56.400 Mark Carney

00:11:57.000 because he has

00:11:58.120 the two worst things

00:11:58.900 going for him.

00:11:59.740 The man has no character,

00:12:01.000 no charisma,

00:12:01.840 no eccentricities, 0.99

00:12:03.040 but he's also crazy. 0.98

00:12:05.380 So yeah. 0.56

00:12:06.620 That's it for me today, guys.

00:12:08.440 Hope you like

00:12:08.960 my leadership updates.

00:12:10.520 Like the video,

00:12:11.920 subscribe,

00:12:12.520 leave a comment,

00:12:13.240 share the video.

00:12:14.360 That really helps me out.

00:12:15.960 See you guys next time.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - February 15, 2025

Carney's leadership campaign is in BIG Trouble - Team Trudeau flops

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