The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - February 15, 2025


Carney's leadership campaign is in BIG Trouble - Team Trudeau flops


Episode Stats

Length

12 minutes

Words per Minute

178.49194

Word Count

2,192

Sentence Count

101

Misogynist Sentences

7

Hate Speech Sentences

3


Summary

A new Main Street Research poll shows that Mark Carney is not only losing ground in the Liberal Party Leadership race, but that he's not even close to being a contender at all. This was supposed to be a big coronation of Mark Carney, and Team Trudeau is behind him, selling memberships for him, basically making it out to be that this guy is the one to beat Pierre Paulyev. And I have some polling numbers to show you that demonstrate that.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 A big indicator that the Liberal Party is very fragile right now,
00:00:05.080 Mark Carney, the supposed golden child in the Liberal Party leadership race,
00:00:09.940 is not doing very well.
00:00:12.240 This was supposed to be a big coronation of Mark Carney
00:00:15.280 because Justin Trudeau and pretty much all of Team Trudeau
00:00:18.900 is behind him selling memberships for him,
00:00:21.740 basically making it out to be that this guy is the one to beat Pierre Polyev.
00:00:26.660 He's such a star. He's so great.
00:00:28.860 And I have some polling numbers to show you that demonstrate that
00:00:32.860 he's just a boring candidate, like I've been saying.
00:00:36.380 He's like Michael Ignatieff again. He's like Stefan Dion.
00:00:40.000 In fact, he's a lot like Kim Campbell.
00:00:42.900 Kim Campbell, upon winning the PC Party leadership race in 1993,
00:00:47.820 had the PC polling numbers shoot up and even actually pass the Liberals at one point
00:00:53.040 until they started crashing all the way back down to Earth
00:00:56.660 because it turns out just slapping a new paint job on a dead party
00:01:01.540 does not make the party suddenly very popular again.
00:01:05.360 This is a soft prediction I've been making around Mark Carney for several videos now
00:01:10.080 where I've been talking about the Liberal leadership race.
00:01:12.980 Every time I've seen an Angus Reid poll or a Leger poll
00:01:16.560 saying that Mark Carney was at 58% support with Liberal supporters,
00:01:21.100 I've been very doubtful if that was actually going to be true with Liberal Party members
00:01:26.340 because those who are not actually voting in the leadership race
00:01:30.800 are probably just going to select who they hear about the most in news articles,
00:01:35.680 whereas members who get the candidates' emails and watch them at rallies
00:01:40.520 and they see their interviews,
00:01:42.580 they're far less likely to actually be swayed by just seeing a bunch of articles
00:01:47.500 in the Toronto Star saying how great Mark Carney is
00:01:50.580 and how Pierre Paulyev is super scared of him.
00:01:53.540 But before I get into the polling results here, guys,
00:01:56.600 just a reminder, make sure to like this video, subscribe to the channel.
00:02:01.000 I am putting my mind and body on the line covering this Liberal Party leadership race
00:02:05.720 because it is as boring as watching paint dry.
00:02:09.420 If this leadership race was a pharmaceutical,
00:02:12.480 the bottle would say do not operate heavy machinery after taking
00:02:16.960 because it will put you to sleep.
00:02:19.480 Anyways, I also leave a comment.
00:02:21.720 Say who you think is going to win this leadership race
00:02:23.960 because it actually looks competitive.
00:02:26.340 But in this new Main Street research poll,
00:02:29.060 and I can't show you the lower data tables because I pay to see those
00:02:32.900 and there is sort of some sensitivity at Main Street
00:02:35.200 on paying to see the data and then showing the public the data.
00:02:39.020 But the methodology here reads,
00:02:40.780 and this was actually kind of surprising to me,
00:02:42.740 it says the analysis in this report
00:02:44.640 is based on the results of a survey conducted from Friday, February 7th,
00:02:49.300 to Monday, February 10th, 2025,
00:02:52.300 among a sample of 1,196 adults
00:02:55.820 who are members of the Liberal Party of Canada.
00:02:58.960 That is really surprising to me.
00:03:01.220 It's generally pretty difficult to actually get a hold of real members
00:03:06.920 and polling just members of a party.
00:03:09.620 Naturally, people who are members of a party are more likely to take polls
00:03:13.040 because they're very plugged in on politics,
00:03:15.340 and if they hear a pollster, they're probably actually excited to take it.
00:03:18.540 But it's still difficult.
00:03:19.920 There's only 400,000 people who have active Liberal memberships
00:03:23.840 who can vote in this thing.
00:03:24.840 So the fact that they got like 0.2% of the population,
00:03:29.900 they found those people,
00:03:31.380 the poll is pretty wild to me.
00:03:33.640 Anyways, so, but let's move on to the top line results,
00:03:38.100 and this is probably all I'm going to show,
00:03:40.000 but it paints a picture.
00:03:41.660 This right here says,
00:03:43.240 oh, never mind,
00:03:43.860 this is how many people in a household have memberships.
00:03:48.120 Okay, going down, sorry.
00:03:49.760 And it says,
00:03:51.020 in the upcoming leadership contest of the Liberal Party of Canada,
00:03:54.920 how would you vote if the election was held today?
00:03:57.920 And this is on your first ballot
00:04:00.200 because it is a ranked ballot system
00:04:03.060 where you basically say number one, two, three, four, five,
00:04:07.080 and your ballot basically gets submitted in that order.
00:04:10.660 If your top line choice is knocked out,
00:04:12.620 it goes down to the next one
00:04:13.700 unless that person's already knocked down,
00:04:15.540 and then it goes to the next one
00:04:16.660 until one of the candidates has more than 50%.
00:04:19.760 But look at this,
00:04:21.140 because again,
00:04:22.060 Carney is supposedly a juggernaut,
00:04:24.000 and Katie Telford and Gerald Butts
00:04:25.560 and Justin Trudeau are pushing his campaign up,
00:04:28.680 so how could he possibly lose?
00:04:30.960 Well, Mark Carney is only at 38%.
00:04:34.980 He's in the lead,
00:04:36.900 but he's only leading Christia Freeland,
00:04:39.080 who is an absolute wet sandwich of a candidate.
00:04:42.600 He's only leading her by nine points.
00:04:44.440 She's at 29.
00:04:45.760 He's at 38.
00:04:46.680 Karina Gould is at 18.
00:04:48.240 We have Ruby Dalla at five,
00:04:50.580 and we have Frank Bayless at two,
00:04:52.860 with eight percent left undecided.
00:04:55.720 You know, now Mark Carney could win still.
00:04:58.880 38% is nothing to sneeze at here.
00:05:00.980 He is still the front runner.
00:05:03.120 But the way I had had this race portrayed to me
00:05:06.460 by liberal Carney cheerleaders online,
00:05:09.380 the mainstream media,
00:05:10.520 and other pollsters,
00:05:11.480 is that this is just going to be a mop-up job for Carney.
00:05:14.400 People want Carney because he's so popular, supposedly.
00:05:18.620 And I just don't see it.
00:05:20.020 And Main Street Research even recently just put out a poll
00:05:22.540 showing that the liberals would in fact win
00:05:24.360 if Mark Carney is the leader of the party.
00:05:26.640 Now, I don't believe that
00:05:28.360 because he doesn't have high name recognition.
00:05:31.800 How can you be so in the lead
00:05:33.800 at the same time nobody knows who you are?
00:05:36.780 That proves to me that there's just a response bias right now
00:05:40.360 for liberals in polls
00:05:42.380 that because of their leadership race going on
00:05:45.060 and because Justin Trudeau is gone
00:05:46.820 and they're less depressed about voting liberal,
00:05:49.380 their answering rate of a poll has increased a lot.
00:05:53.160 And they're disproportionately answering polls
00:05:55.420 to their actual support in society.
00:05:58.180 I think Abacus Data has been doing a really good job
00:06:00.980 of measuring and balancing its demographics
00:06:03.460 because here's the thing about polls.
00:06:05.040 I know I talk about polls a lot.
00:06:07.180 Forgive me unless you like the polling videos
00:06:09.020 then thank me and like the video.
00:06:11.560 But the thing about polls
00:06:12.900 is that even if you have a poll
00:06:15.480 that is properly balanced between men and women,
00:06:18.360 you should always have a little bit more women than men
00:06:20.120 because women tend to vote a little bit more than men.
00:06:22.920 You have the proper balance of age demographics
00:06:25.800 obviously disproportionately having more older voters
00:06:29.140 than younger voters
00:06:30.000 because younger voters are less likely to vote.
00:06:32.180 That's all good.
00:06:32.900 But the problem is if you have technically the right balance
00:06:37.940 of men and women
00:06:38.620 and the different age demographics and income levels,
00:06:41.200 if your poll is too GTA-based and too metropolitan
00:06:45.460 and too obviously liberal and not working class enough,
00:06:49.980 then you'll have a poll that's going to say
00:06:51.960 that the liberals are going to win
00:06:53.100 because you basically only accidentally,
00:06:56.160 and it might be by accident,
00:06:57.380 I don't think Frank Craves is doing this all by accident,
00:06:59.760 and I think his polls just suck.
00:07:01.420 But a lot of the other pollsters,
00:07:02.720 I think by accident,
00:07:04.600 their polls are basically telling you
00:07:06.860 what an election in Toronto-St. Paul
00:07:09.400 or University-Rosedale would look like
00:07:12.760 because of who is answering the polls.
00:07:14.960 Technically, they have the right mix of men and women
00:07:17.300 in their polls,
00:07:18.300 but all the men are very metropolitan
00:07:20.000 compared to,
00:07:21.480 there's not enough plumbers,
00:07:22.500 there's not enough farmers,
00:07:24.140 there's not enough small business owners.
00:07:26.780 In the mix,
00:07:28.340 there's too many office workers,
00:07:29.780 government employees,
00:07:30.700 and all that stuff.
00:07:31.440 I'd love for them to ask people
00:07:32.920 what sector they work in
00:07:34.760 so that we know we're not having too many people
00:07:36.920 who are public sector workers
00:07:38.560 answering these polls
00:07:39.740 or public contractors
00:07:40.860 because I guarantee
00:07:41.640 that is a big part of what's happening.
00:07:44.360 And JJ McCullough and I
00:07:45.860 agreed on this today.
00:07:47.820 I'm trying to find the tweet.
00:07:49.360 But JJ McCullough and I
00:07:52.600 agreed on this one thing today
00:07:54.760 that was, I think,
00:07:56.440 a pretty good point.
00:07:57.860 That right now,
00:07:59.540 Mark Carney has no actual,
00:08:03.220 I'm trying to pull up the tweet,
00:08:04.300 he has no actual name recognition.
00:08:06.140 So when the Liberals are also polling high,
00:08:08.760 what I assume is happening
00:08:09.900 is a lot of Canadians
00:08:11.000 are just looking at him
00:08:12.840 as a generic Liberal.
00:08:15.280 And so he is the fill-in-the-blank candidate,
00:08:17.480 just like Kamala Harris
00:08:18.700 ended up being for a little bit.
00:08:20.560 You just fit,
00:08:21.400 they are a blank space
00:08:22.860 that you just fill up.
00:08:24.060 This was a month ago,
00:08:25.480 right when the leadership race
00:08:26.640 was kicking off,
00:08:27.560 as JJ McCullough is pointing out.
00:08:29.000 This was an abacus data poll.
00:08:31.000 This is Mark Carney's ratings.
00:08:33.160 24% of people
00:08:34.720 could name Mark Carney
00:08:36.500 when they saw his photo.
00:08:38.500 76% of people could not.
00:08:41.520 And while, yes,
00:08:42.380 he's getting a lot of coverage right now,
00:08:44.480 I assure you
00:08:45.780 that his name recognition
00:08:47.340 has not punched above 40%.
00:08:49.380 Because most people
00:08:50.220 don't watch the news,
00:08:51.340 do not read political coverage
00:08:53.120 in the papers,
00:08:53.840 and he is still
00:08:55.340 just some random,
00:08:56.640 boring central banker.
00:08:58.300 So that's his problem.
00:08:59.540 He could easily lose
00:09:00.440 this Liberal leadership race.
00:09:02.120 There is a French debate coming up.
00:09:04.140 Mark Carney's French
00:09:05.320 is not very good.
00:09:06.920 And I'm saying this
00:09:07.720 as somebody
00:09:08.140 who can't speak a lick of French,
00:09:09.780 but I've been told
00:09:10.560 that his French is meh,
00:09:12.240 and he's going to be on stage
00:09:14.120 with Chrystia Freeland,
00:09:15.940 Karina Gould,
00:09:16.640 and especially Frank Bayless,
00:09:18.080 who is a Montrealer,
00:09:19.500 and their French
00:09:20.500 is obviously either
00:09:21.780 fully native
00:09:22.520 or much more practiced
00:09:23.920 than his is.
00:09:25.260 So I think that
00:09:26.140 whatever his Quebec support
00:09:27.620 looks like,
00:09:28.660 I'm not sure if it's
00:09:29.280 his best province
00:09:30.040 or his worst province,
00:09:30.920 but he needs votes
00:09:31.820 anywhere he can get them,
00:09:33.340 that his Quebec voter base
00:09:35.000 could start leaving
00:09:36.160 when they realize,
00:09:37.080 ooh, the guy's
00:09:37.800 not going to look very good
00:09:38.920 next to Pierre Poly
00:09:39.980 on stage
00:09:40.560 if his French is like this.
00:09:42.560 And again,
00:09:43.360 even in the English debate,
00:09:44.520 Ruby Dalla,
00:09:45.320 I know she cannot speak French
00:09:46.620 and she wants a translator.
00:09:47.940 I've seen people do that
00:09:48.820 for debates in the past.
00:09:50.180 Maybe she can't even go
00:09:51.260 to the French debate,
00:09:52.320 but at the English debate,
00:09:53.900 her and Chrystia Freeland
00:09:54.940 and Frank Bayless,
00:09:56.960 their only path to victory
00:09:58.600 or path to having
00:10:00.000 some success in politics
00:10:01.940 post this leadership race
00:10:03.440 by making a name
00:10:04.240 of themselves,
00:10:05.300 their only path
00:10:06.160 is ripping the bark
00:10:07.940 off of Mark Carney.
00:10:09.600 If I was Chrystia Freeland's,
00:10:11.720 campaign team,
00:10:13.080 I would basically have her
00:10:15.100 in the middle of the debate
00:10:16.040 and I don't like
00:10:16.880 Chrystia Freeland at all.
00:10:17.920 I'm a conservative.
00:10:18.680 I don't like any of these people
00:10:19.760 except Ruby Dalla
00:10:20.640 who's kind of funny.
00:10:22.020 But if I was Chrystia Freeland's
00:10:23.860 campaign team,
00:10:24.560 I would have Chrystia
00:10:25.620 turn to Mark Carney
00:10:27.380 during the debate,
00:10:28.580 especially if he ever
00:10:29.460 accuses you of failing
00:10:30.940 as finance minister
00:10:31.940 and say,
00:10:33.060 Mark,
00:10:33.960 for the last four years
00:10:35.440 that I was finance minister,
00:10:36.900 I was having to implement
00:10:38.740 every single bad policy
00:10:40.820 that you were advising
00:10:42.600 Justin Trudeau on.
00:10:43.920 In fact,
00:10:44.340 I was forced to pass
00:10:45.420 all of your bad policies
00:10:46.460 and then you and Justin
00:10:47.960 blamed me for it
00:10:49.280 because you guys
00:10:50.100 are cowardly weasels.
00:10:52.240 That would be
00:10:52.960 an absolute blockbuster moment
00:10:54.720 if someone turns to him
00:10:55.600 and says,
00:10:56.340 you're an obvious insider
00:10:57.540 and you won't even put
00:10:58.880 your money where your mouth is.
00:11:00.280 You've been basically
00:11:01.240 crashing this country's finances
00:11:03.560 for the past four years
00:11:05.100 in the background
00:11:05.920 and after failing
00:11:07.220 for four years
00:11:07.940 because nobody knew
00:11:08.980 specifically you were
00:11:10.140 the one who failed,
00:11:11.180 you're suddenly here
00:11:11.960 to become prime minister
00:11:13.060 like you deserve
00:11:13.900 a corner office.
00:11:15.300 That's what I would do.
00:11:16.540 If I'm Ruby Dahl,
00:11:17.440 I would just start
00:11:18.000 throwing haymakers
00:11:18.820 at everyone
00:11:19.380 because she's like
00:11:20.360 basically running
00:11:21.240 as a conservative
00:11:21.960 and I would basically
00:11:23.200 go after Mark Carney
00:11:24.240 for being an elitist
00:11:25.160 central banker
00:11:25.860 who believes in
00:11:26.640 central bank digital currencies
00:11:27.920 and is a high
00:11:29.440 immigration freak.
00:11:30.940 Like the guy
00:11:31.380 who speaks for
00:11:32.060 the Century Institute,
00:11:33.880 the organization
00:11:34.460 that wants Canada's
00:11:35.520 population to get
00:11:36.480 to 100 million
00:11:37.660 by 2050.
00:11:39.300 That is the thing
00:11:39.960 that is not said enough.
00:11:41.640 Mark Carney is boring
00:11:42.640 which hides the fact
00:11:43.920 that he's a loon
00:11:44.860 and if the conservatives
00:11:46.520 and Polyev
00:11:47.780 or his liberal
00:11:48.660 leadership opponents
00:11:49.540 can make that known
00:11:50.820 that this guy
00:11:51.480 is not compelling
00:11:52.500 and he's actually
00:11:53.520 a loon bag,
00:11:54.940 you can't not beat
00:11:56.400 Mark Carney
00:11:57.000 because he has
00:11:58.120 the two worst things
00:11:58.900 going for him.
00:11:59.740 The man has no character,
00:12:01.000 no charisma,
00:12:01.840 no eccentricities,
00:12:03.040 but he's also crazy.
00:12:05.380 So yeah.
00:12:06.620 That's it for me today, guys.
00:12:08.440 Hope you like
00:12:08.960 my leadership updates.
00:12:10.520 Like the video,
00:12:11.920 subscribe,
00:12:12.520 leave a comment,
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00:12:14.360 That really helps me out.
00:12:15.960 See you guys next time.