The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Carney's Liberal coalition is having a political divorce!

00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. I'm not one to usually make predictions, but I want to make

00:00:07.000 one big prediction for the year 2026. I think Mark Carney's Liberal Party is going to experience

00:00:15.880 a big coalitional rift. Their electoral coalition in 2025 was kind of contradictory. Carney,

00:00:24.780 for a moment in time, was able to get the elbows-up people to vote alongside people from

00:00:31.840 big business institutions and unionized labor, which doesn't make sense at all when you actually

00:00:38.700 think about it. Because the elbows-up liberals don't want to sign pretty much any deal with

00:00:44.800 the Americans. The only deal the elbows-up crew will allow for Carney to sign is one that is

00:00:50.720 basically impossible, where Canada gets everything and Trump and the Americans get nothing. But then

00:00:58.140 on the other side of the coalition, people from big business groups and the unionized labor groups

00:01:03.560 like Unifor, especially the private sector unions, they want a deal signed because they want economic

00:01:09.620 growth and jobs. But the two groups want completely opposite things, and Carney has held them together

00:01:16.260 honestly longer than I ever expected him to be able to do. And that is why we now have articles

00:01:22.780 headlined like this coming out. Elbows-up is over for business and labor leaders who now want Carney

00:01:29.840 to put pucks in the net. Carney's in a bit of a pickle here, because if he actually goes the more

00:01:37.520 pragmatic route these people inside big business institutions and the unions want him to do,

00:01:44.000 he's going to tick off all of the elbows-up people who don't care about the state of the economy.

00:01:50.500 It's just a fact that if you're an elbows-up type voter, you're more likely than the average Canadian

00:01:56.120 to be retired, to own your own home, and to live in a safe neighborhood. Prices don't really affect you

00:02:02.520 as much as they do maybe the 37-year-old person who has a big mortgage, you know, married with two kids,

00:02:09.520 costs are through the roof. That voter wants a deal signed. They actually side with the private sector

00:02:16.200 unions and big business. That's not like a shock that I'm saying that they align, but I'm saying that

00:02:20.740 the conservative voter, which is the voter who's, you know, maybe not doing too bad in terms of their job,

00:02:27.680 but struggling financially because of the state of the economy, that voter was actually not in line

00:02:33.520 with the private sector unions and the big business institutions. Now, a lot of private sector union workers

00:02:40.060 voted conservative, but the institutions themselves were still backing the liberals, but now it seems like

00:02:45.480 they may actually shift over. So I want to take you through some lines from this article because I find

00:02:51.040 what some of these people are saying quite interesting. Then I actually do want to take you as well

00:02:56.620 through a Globe and Mail article. It's like a letter to the editor or someone praising Mark Carney that I think is

00:03:01.380 almost like the elbows up response to what many people in this article are saying.

00:03:07.000 So here is a quote from someone who is the CEO of the Business Council of Canada. It says,

00:03:13.500 quote, we've had the year of elbows up, said Goldie Hyder, president and CEO of the Business Council of

00:03:19.940 Canada. Quote, when you do that in a hockey game, you end up in the penalty box. It's far more important

00:03:27.120 in 2026 that we, you know, win face-offs, put shots on the net and put pucks in the net. That's what's

00:03:34.760 going to be more important. That's a great quote because you can feel the frustration. Someone who's

00:03:40.900 the CEO of the Business Council of Canada, someone like Goldie Hyder, probably interfaces with liberal

00:03:46.600 politicians quite a bit. And she is going to try and be more diplomatic than not. And even that is a

00:03:53.780 pretty aggressive quote from her, basically saying that the liberals just need to get a stupid deal

00:03:59.280 done and they have to stop, you know, message like messing around, trying to please their base by being

00:04:04.340 like obstinate to Donald Trump. Let's go to another quote here. Let's just keep reading the article a

00:04:10.720 little bit further down once they get to a different leader. Unifor national president Lana Payne said the

00:04:17.040 fact that Canada is still dealing with secondary tariffs means it was starting those talks slightly on the

00:04:23.440 back heels. At the same time with U.S. inflation and unemployment rising as the American economy deals

00:04:30.000 with the impact of the president's tariffs, Payne says Canada can use that to his advantage in bargaining

00:04:35.500 with the U.S. Quote, all these things are helpful to us. While Canada may also feel that time is on its

00:04:44.080 side, Hyder said the opposite is true for business. Quote, what we have said to them is one of the things

00:04:50.620 you need to remember is it may be your friend. It may be your friend politically, but it's not our

00:04:56.000 friend from a business perspective. One risk, according to Hyder, is that 2026 ends without a

00:05:02.080 joint is that 2026 ends without a joint review having been completed, which only fuels uncertainty

00:05:08.400 the longer its extension sits unresolved. The business council president said leaders should also

00:05:14.280 not count on what lessons were learned from negotiating with Trump on the current agreement and apply it

00:05:19.900 this time around, given how much more aggressive his administration is on enacting his trade

00:05:26.460 agenda. Matthew Holmes, executive president and chief of public policy at the Canadian Chamber of

00:05:32.480 Commerce, cautioned against thinking that suggests Canada should look to milestones like the 2026 U.S.

00:05:39.020 midterm elections scheduled for next November when it comes to its strategic approach to trade talks.

00:05:44.280 Quote, we shouldn't be ragging the puck, so to speak, he said. There is a lot of hockey talk in

00:05:50.120 this article because of the elbows up rhetoric the liberals were using, but they're all basically

00:05:55.340 pointing to the idea that Carney's strategy is not working. And I've seen this from many liberals that

00:06:01.360 they think that, well, we'll just wait Trump out until we get to the midterm elections, and then Trump

00:06:07.340 will be forced to play ball because maybe the Republicans lose control of both the House and the Senate.

00:06:13.780 Really, we're going to wait until November of 2026 to sign something? Like, maybe they're thinking

00:06:21.960 we're going to sign something before the midterm so that Trump gets a little bit of a shot in the arm

00:06:26.540 for his Republican congressional candidates? But, like, goodness, that's just not how it's going to work out.

00:06:34.520 And that's what these business leaders who were previously supportive of Carney are trying to signal.

00:06:39.780 A lot of Unifor members probably would have voted conservative. There were unions that did endorse

00:06:46.160 the conservatives. There were business groups that endorsed the conservatives. But the massive

00:06:50.940 national institutions were still backing the liberals. And now they're having this kind of

00:06:56.600 slightly awkward conversation with Carney through the lens of the media where they're saying, like,

00:07:02.660 oh, yeah, you know, it's a maybe it's time to switch tactics from being obstinate all the time to

00:07:09.580 actually, you know, trying to get a deal signed. And that's what the article was saying is that all

00:07:15.040 these people want the pragmatic approach now, because the wishful thinking that you're going to

00:07:20.980 somehow thumb your nose at Donald Trump, and he's going to be so impressed with you, he's going to sign

00:07:24.880 something on the spot is ridiculous. But that's not what elbows up voters want. In fact, any conservative

00:07:32.540 who suggests that maybe we should actually, you know, get to the point of signing a deal is labeled

00:07:38.540 a traitor to Canada, if you have ever watched Laura Babcock's show. Here, Paulie have and the

00:07:44.640 conservative suggesting that they would do a better job of actually getting to a deal basically gets

00:07:49.420 accused of like committing treason against Mark Carney, and they're siding with Donald Trump. Yes,

00:07:55.340 signing a deal that would be good for Canada is now siding with Donald Trump. But I want to take

00:08:00.740 you now through this funny article from the Globe and Mail, that is a letter to the editor. It is it says,

00:08:08.140 Mark Carney has materially changed the trajectory of our country in ways I could have not I could not have

00:08:15.260 imagined. And I believe he is just getting started. I love stuff like this. It's so silly. The idea

00:08:23.980 that no, no, no, guys, it's not just that he's been good. He's changed the country in ways we couldn't

00:08:30.180 even imagine. We're on new heights that we didn't even believe was possible. And that's why the real GDP

00:08:37.700 fell in October. That is why per capita GDP continues to fall. Because we're on the new trajectory

00:08:44.960 we could never imagine. You citing numbers and statistics and, and unemployment rates.

00:08:52.800 Pathetic, pathetic, nobody cares, because this person's probably retired, and they don't care

00:08:58.140 that other people are suffering. Now, if you're retired, and you're watching my show, obviously, you do

00:09:02.800 not agree with this person. But there is something to say that the average elbows up type voter

00:09:07.600 tends to be retired, you know, owns their own home, all that stuff I've mentioned before. And so they don't

00:09:13.660 live in the same reality as the millennial or the Gen Z person who's genuinely barely keeping things 0.93

00:09:22.240 together because of the state of the economy. This letter to the editor is literally entitled

00:09:28.860 Flying High. Flying High. From Washington to a Calhoun, Carney's travels reveal a lot about his

00:09:35.760 priorities. When watching elite sport or attending a classical concert or ballet, in addition to the

00:09:41.960 enjoyment of the spectacle, I reflect on the exceptional skill on display far beyond what I

00:09:47.840 could muster. I don't remember ever thinking this way about a politician until now. Mark Carney has his

00:09:55.160 first nine months as prime minister materially changed the trajectory of our country in ways I

00:10:00.780 could have not imagined. And I believe he is just getting started. In spite of the woeful state of the

00:10:06.760 world, I am more optimistic than I have ever been in a long time and looking forward to the unfolding

00:10:12.300 of a new, truly better Canada. I know it is un-Canadian to gush like this. Sorry. And this comes from Donald

00:10:19.640 Hall, who unsurprisingly lives in Ottawa. Flying High. Yes, guys, Mark Carney is like watching an elite ice

00:10:28.480 dancer. He is like watching a true maestro leading an orchestra. He is like watching the great Wayne

00:10:37.960 Gretzky play hockey. Donald Hall might have a bit of a crush on Mark Carney. I'm going to have to break

00:10:45.320 it to him that you've got some problems there you've got to sort out. Flying High. Inflation is flying

00:10:54.040 higher than our current GDP growth. Flying way higher than our falling per capita incomes.

00:11:02.680 This is, what are we talking about? Like, I'm, this is levels of delusion I could have never expected

00:11:11.160 to exist. The Globe and Mail published this, and this is what I mean when I say that the legacy media

00:11:19.300 are Mark Carney sycophants. Anyone in media, any editor, should be throwing this out. It's stupid.

00:11:26.900 It lacks any substance to it. It's a man gushing about how much of a crush he has on Mark Carney

00:11:32.540 and how optimistic he feels. This feels like how people were playing up. Like Kamala Harris in 2024.

00:11:41.220 Oh my goodness. She's such a breath of fresh air. Oh my goodness. She's so wise and smart,

00:11:49.060 and she makes me feel energized for the state of the country, in fact. Oh, frankly, I'm so jazzed

00:11:56.980 about thinking about Kamala Harris leading the United States, even though I'm pretending to be a

00:12:03.320 Democratic voter here. Even though nobody voted for her in the primaries back in 2020,

00:12:07.540 and she was deeply disliked. Suddenly, now that Joe Biden has stepped out and Kamala is in,

00:12:13.460 I feel, I feel something in my soul that is awoken. Oh, Mark Carney takes over for Justin Trudeau

00:12:20.420 and changes basically nothing? Oh, wow, the trajectory has changed. It's better than I've

00:12:25.580 ever imagined before. Or are you lying to yourself? Or is Donald Hall, somebody who doesn't live in

00:12:32.600 reality? Probably retired, owns his own home, and does not actually need the economy to be good for

00:12:39.780 him to survive. He's totally fine with everyone else having no job prospects, expensive houses,

00:12:46.580 high crime. The trade deals are not being signed, but that's okay, because he's sticking it to Donald

00:12:52.800 Trump. And in fact, we're flying high. And in fact, Mark Carney is very sexy, and he is like the most

00:12:58.800 talented basketball player you've ever watched in terms of how good he is as a politician.

00:13:04.740 His rhetorical flourishes, the fact that he never shows up to question period pretty much ever.

00:13:10.200 This is all the magic of Mark Carney. We call it boring white man magic.

00:13:18.060 I don't even know what to say. I don't even know what to say. But this is the rift that will open up.

00:13:23.180 The people who think it's great, and the people from the business world, those who live in practical

00:13:28.620 reality, those from even unionized labor world, these people realize, yes, we actually do need

00:13:35.980 deals signed. We do need taxes lower. We do need regulations out of the way. We need to make a

00:13:41.240 pipeline. All of them support that, and they realize Carney doesn't actually support it, or at least he is

00:13:47.420 captured by his own elbows-up audience. Because the elbows-up voters are the majority of the

00:13:53.260 liberals, and the business liberals that I've been talking about in the past few videos are the

00:13:58.220 minority. But the good thing is that they are swing voters, and they are likely to swing over to pure 0.97

00:14:04.000 poly as conservatives, because they're being rational and realistic. You can get a trade deal signed,

00:14:10.560 you just have to manage your expectations. We could, in one future, actually get to zero tariffs.

00:14:17.420 We just have to do it right. But Carney's negotiators enter the room without the ability to talk about

00:14:23.580 supply management, without the ability to talk about the Online Streaming Act. So many things are

00:14:29.180 off the table for Carney. How could we negotiate with the Americans? We're not willing to negotiate 0.84

00:14:34.380 over anything. By the way, making a concession is not a loss, because if you benefit more at the end of

00:14:41.520 the day than what you ended up giving up in a concession, you still won. But the liberal elbows-up

00:14:47.600 voters do not want to hear that. They just want Carney to, you know, flutter his eyelashes at Donald

00:14:53.500 Trump and say, I'm not talking. I don't even care about making a deal anymore. Who needs the quickie

00:14:58.380 mart? Not me. It's like you do, because you are going to lose the next election from all of the business

00:15:04.880 liberals, the business, like the union liberals, leaving your party and voting the conservatives in.

00:15:11.600 Because the conservatives can easily win by just ramping up support in places like the GTA. They

00:15:17.340 almost won a lot of Brampton-Mississauga ridings. Just don't screw up the nominations there next time.

00:15:22.660 Don't appoint a bunch of morons as your candidates. You ramp up pressure in southwestern Ontario.

00:15:28.840 You grab up a few maritime ridings, and you're at least at a minority government pretty quickly.

00:15:34.800 They only need to flip like 15, 18 seats. It's not that many. Conservatives only lost the last

00:15:40.800 election in the closest riding by a collective margin of around 8,000 votes, which is not a lot

00:15:46.280 because they lost by like 20 seats or something like that, more than 20 seats. It's like 28 seats

00:15:50.960 they lost by. And those 28 seats between the conservatives and liberals were only separated by a collective

00:15:56.860 8,000 votes, which is insane because you will have many ridings the conservatives win. They'll win it

00:16:03.260 with like 35,000 votes or something like that. This is a fraction of the votes a conservative would win

00:16:09.120 in a riding in Calgary. But anyways, with that all being said, thank you guys for watching this video.

00:16:16.240 Bit more of a rant, but hopefully you found it interesting. If you want to join and support the

00:16:21.280 channel, hit the join button below the video. Support me at one of the tiers, and it helps make the

00:16:25.760 channel more sustainable for me and helps me be less reliant on the YouTube algorithm. And of course,

00:16:31.340 I can encourage you guys to like the video, share it, subscribe, leave a comment, and then I will see

00:16:38.080 you all next time.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - December 29, 2025

Carney's Liberal coalition is having a political divorce!

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