Carney's Liberal coalition is having a political divorce!
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Summary
Wyatt Clunock makes a prediction for the year of 2026 and why it s going to be tough for PM Mark Carney to get a deal with Trump and the U.S. in order to get the deal he wants.
Transcript
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Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. I'm not one to usually make predictions, but I want to make
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one big prediction for the year 2026. I think Mark Carney's Liberal Party is going to experience
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a big coalitional rift. Their electoral coalition in 2025 was kind of contradictory. Carney,
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for a moment in time, was able to get the elbows-up people to vote alongside people from
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big business institutions and unionized labor, which doesn't make sense at all when you actually
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think about it. Because the elbows-up liberals don't want to sign pretty much any deal with
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the Americans. The only deal the elbows-up crew will allow for Carney to sign is one that is
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basically impossible, where Canada gets everything and Trump and the Americans get nothing. But then
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on the other side of the coalition, people from big business groups and the unionized labor groups
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like Unifor, especially the private sector unions, they want a deal signed because they want economic
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growth and jobs. But the two groups want completely opposite things, and Carney has held them together
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honestly longer than I ever expected him to be able to do. And that is why we now have articles
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headlined like this coming out. Elbows-up is over for business and labor leaders who now want Carney
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to put pucks in the net. Carney's in a bit of a pickle here, because if he actually goes the more
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pragmatic route these people inside big business institutions and the unions want him to do,
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he's going to tick off all of the elbows-up people who don't care about the state of the economy.
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It's just a fact that if you're an elbows-up type voter, you're more likely than the average Canadian
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to be retired, to own your own home, and to live in a safe neighborhood. Prices don't really affect you
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as much as they do maybe the 37-year-old person who has a big mortgage, you know, married with two kids,
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costs are through the roof. That voter wants a deal signed. They actually side with the private sector
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unions and big business. That's not like a shock that I'm saying that they align, but I'm saying that
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the conservative voter, which is the voter who's, you know, maybe not doing too bad in terms of their job,
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but struggling financially because of the state of the economy, that voter was actually not in line
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with the private sector unions and the big business institutions. Now, a lot of private sector union workers
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voted conservative, but the institutions themselves were still backing the liberals, but now it seems like
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they may actually shift over. So I want to take you through some lines from this article because I find
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what some of these people are saying quite interesting. Then I actually do want to take you as well
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through a Globe and Mail article. It's like a letter to the editor or someone praising Mark Carney that I think is
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almost like the elbows up response to what many people in this article are saying.
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So here is a quote from someone who is the CEO of the Business Council of Canada. It says,
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quote, we've had the year of elbows up, said Goldie Hyder, president and CEO of the Business Council of
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Canada. Quote, when you do that in a hockey game, you end up in the penalty box. It's far more important
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in 2026 that we, you know, win face-offs, put shots on the net and put pucks in the net. That's what's
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going to be more important. That's a great quote because you can feel the frustration. Someone who's
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the CEO of the Business Council of Canada, someone like Goldie Hyder, probably interfaces with liberal
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politicians quite a bit. And she is going to try and be more diplomatic than not. And even that is a
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pretty aggressive quote from her, basically saying that the liberals just need to get a stupid deal
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done and they have to stop, you know, message like messing around, trying to please their base by being
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like obstinate to Donald Trump. Let's go to another quote here. Let's just keep reading the article a
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little bit further down once they get to a different leader. Unifor national president Lana Payne said the
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fact that Canada is still dealing with secondary tariffs means it was starting those talks slightly on the
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back heels. At the same time with U.S. inflation and unemployment rising as the American economy deals
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with the impact of the president's tariffs, Payne says Canada can use that to his advantage in bargaining
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with the U.S. Quote, all these things are helpful to us. While Canada may also feel that time is on its
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side, Hyder said the opposite is true for business. Quote, what we have said to them is one of the things
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you need to remember is it may be your friend. It may be your friend politically, but it's not our
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friend from a business perspective. One risk, according to Hyder, is that 2026 ends without a
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joint is that 2026 ends without a joint review having been completed, which only fuels uncertainty
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the longer its extension sits unresolved. The business council president said leaders should also
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not count on what lessons were learned from negotiating with Trump on the current agreement and apply it
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this time around, given how much more aggressive his administration is on enacting his trade
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agenda. Matthew Holmes, executive president and chief of public policy at the Canadian Chamber of
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Commerce, cautioned against thinking that suggests Canada should look to milestones like the 2026 U.S.
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midterm elections scheduled for next November when it comes to its strategic approach to trade talks.
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Quote, we shouldn't be ragging the puck, so to speak, he said. There is a lot of hockey talk in
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this article because of the elbows up rhetoric the liberals were using, but they're all basically
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pointing to the idea that Carney's strategy is not working. And I've seen this from many liberals that
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they think that, well, we'll just wait Trump out until we get to the midterm elections, and then Trump
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will be forced to play ball because maybe the Republicans lose control of both the House and the Senate.
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Really, we're going to wait until November of 2026 to sign something? Like, maybe they're thinking
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we're going to sign something before the midterm so that Trump gets a little bit of a shot in the arm
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for his Republican congressional candidates? But, like, goodness, that's just not how it's going to work out.
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And that's what these business leaders who were previously supportive of Carney are trying to signal.
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A lot of Unifor members probably would have voted conservative. There were unions that did endorse
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the conservatives. There were business groups that endorsed the conservatives. But the massive
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national institutions were still backing the liberals. And now they're having this kind of
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slightly awkward conversation with Carney through the lens of the media where they're saying, like,
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oh, yeah, you know, it's a maybe it's time to switch tactics from being obstinate all the time to
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actually, you know, trying to get a deal signed. And that's what the article was saying is that all
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these people want the pragmatic approach now, because the wishful thinking that you're going to
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somehow thumb your nose at Donald Trump, and he's going to be so impressed with you, he's going to sign
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something on the spot is ridiculous. But that's not what elbows up voters want. In fact, any conservative
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who suggests that maybe we should actually, you know, get to the point of signing a deal is labeled
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a traitor to Canada, if you have ever watched Laura Babcock's show. Here, Paulie have and the
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conservative suggesting that they would do a better job of actually getting to a deal basically gets
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accused of like committing treason against Mark Carney, and they're siding with Donald Trump. Yes,
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signing a deal that would be good for Canada is now siding with Donald Trump. But I want to take
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you now through this funny article from the Globe and Mail, that is a letter to the editor. It is it says,
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Mark Carney has materially changed the trajectory of our country in ways I could have not I could not have
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imagined. And I believe he is just getting started. I love stuff like this. It's so silly. The idea
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that no, no, no, guys, it's not just that he's been good. He's changed the country in ways we couldn't
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even imagine. We're on new heights that we didn't even believe was possible. And that's why the real GDP
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fell in October. That is why per capita GDP continues to fall. Because we're on the new trajectory
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we could never imagine. You citing numbers and statistics and, and unemployment rates.
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Pathetic, pathetic, nobody cares, because this person's probably retired, and they don't care
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that other people are suffering. Now, if you're retired, and you're watching my show, obviously, you do
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not agree with this person. But there is something to say that the average elbows up type voter
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tends to be retired, you know, owns their own home, all that stuff I've mentioned before. And so they don't
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live in the same reality as the millennial or the Gen Z person who's genuinely barely keeping things
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together because of the state of the economy. This letter to the editor is literally entitled
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Flying High. Flying High. From Washington to a Calhoun, Carney's travels reveal a lot about his
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priorities. When watching elite sport or attending a classical concert or ballet, in addition to the
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enjoyment of the spectacle, I reflect on the exceptional skill on display far beyond what I
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could muster. I don't remember ever thinking this way about a politician until now. Mark Carney has his
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first nine months as prime minister materially changed the trajectory of our country in ways I
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could have not imagined. And I believe he is just getting started. In spite of the woeful state of the
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world, I am more optimistic than I have ever been in a long time and looking forward to the unfolding
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of a new, truly better Canada. I know it is un-Canadian to gush like this. Sorry. And this comes from Donald
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Hall, who unsurprisingly lives in Ottawa. Flying High. Yes, guys, Mark Carney is like watching an elite ice
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dancer. He is like watching a true maestro leading an orchestra. He is like watching the great Wayne
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Gretzky play hockey. Donald Hall might have a bit of a crush on Mark Carney. I'm going to have to break
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it to him that you've got some problems there you've got to sort out. Flying High. Inflation is flying
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higher than our current GDP growth. Flying way higher than our falling per capita incomes.
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This is, what are we talking about? Like, I'm, this is levels of delusion I could have never expected
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to exist. The Globe and Mail published this, and this is what I mean when I say that the legacy media
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are Mark Carney sycophants. Anyone in media, any editor, should be throwing this out. It's stupid.
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It lacks any substance to it. It's a man gushing about how much of a crush he has on Mark Carney
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and how optimistic he feels. This feels like how people were playing up. Like Kamala Harris in 2024.
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Oh my goodness. She's such a breath of fresh air. Oh my goodness. She's so wise and smart,
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and she makes me feel energized for the state of the country, in fact. Oh, frankly, I'm so jazzed
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about thinking about Kamala Harris leading the United States, even though I'm pretending to be a
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Democratic voter here. Even though nobody voted for her in the primaries back in 2020,
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and she was deeply disliked. Suddenly, now that Joe Biden has stepped out and Kamala is in,
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I feel, I feel something in my soul that is awoken. Oh, Mark Carney takes over for Justin Trudeau
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and changes basically nothing? Oh, wow, the trajectory has changed. It's better than I've
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ever imagined before. Or are you lying to yourself? Or is Donald Hall, somebody who doesn't live in
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reality? Probably retired, owns his own home, and does not actually need the economy to be good for
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him to survive. He's totally fine with everyone else having no job prospects, expensive houses,
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high crime. The trade deals are not being signed, but that's okay, because he's sticking it to Donald
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Trump. And in fact, we're flying high. And in fact, Mark Carney is very sexy, and he is like the most
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talented basketball player you've ever watched in terms of how good he is as a politician.
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His rhetorical flourishes, the fact that he never shows up to question period pretty much ever.
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This is all the magic of Mark Carney. We call it boring white man magic.
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I don't even know what to say. I don't even know what to say. But this is the rift that will open up.
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The people who think it's great, and the people from the business world, those who live in practical
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reality, those from even unionized labor world, these people realize, yes, we actually do need
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deals signed. We do need taxes lower. We do need regulations out of the way. We need to make a
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pipeline. All of them support that, and they realize Carney doesn't actually support it, or at least he is
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captured by his own elbows-up audience. Because the elbows-up voters are the majority of the
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liberals, and the business liberals that I've been talking about in the past few videos are the
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minority. But the good thing is that they are swing voters, and they are likely to swing over to pure
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poly as conservatives, because they're being rational and realistic. You can get a trade deal signed,
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you just have to manage your expectations. We could, in one future, actually get to zero tariffs.
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We just have to do it right. But Carney's negotiators enter the room without the ability to talk about
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supply management, without the ability to talk about the Online Streaming Act. So many things are
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off the table for Carney. How could we negotiate with the Americans? We're not willing to negotiate
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over anything. By the way, making a concession is not a loss, because if you benefit more at the end of
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the day than what you ended up giving up in a concession, you still won. But the liberal elbows-up
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voters do not want to hear that. They just want Carney to, you know, flutter his eyelashes at Donald
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Trump and say, I'm not talking. I don't even care about making a deal anymore. Who needs the quickie
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mart? Not me. It's like you do, because you are going to lose the next election from all of the business
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liberals, the business, like the union liberals, leaving your party and voting the conservatives in.
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Because the conservatives can easily win by just ramping up support in places like the GTA. They
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almost won a lot of Brampton-Mississauga ridings. Just don't screw up the nominations there next time.
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Don't appoint a bunch of morons as your candidates. You ramp up pressure in southwestern Ontario.
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You grab up a few maritime ridings, and you're at least at a minority government pretty quickly.
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They only need to flip like 15, 18 seats. It's not that many. Conservatives only lost the last
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election in the closest riding by a collective margin of around 8,000 votes, which is not a lot
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because they lost by like 20 seats or something like that, more than 20 seats. It's like 28 seats
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they lost by. And those 28 seats between the conservatives and liberals were only separated by a collective
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8,000 votes, which is insane because you will have many ridings the conservatives win. They'll win it
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with like 35,000 votes or something like that. This is a fraction of the votes a conservative would win
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in a riding in Calgary. But anyways, with that all being said, thank you guys for watching this video.
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