Carney's Majority is IMPOSSIBLE - Liberal MP steps down after court overturns her election win!
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Summary
The Supreme Court of Canada has ruled that the Terrebonne rioting in Quebec will have to go to a by-election. This means that the current Liberal MP, Tatiana Agusti, will lose her seat.
Transcript
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Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here, and welcome back to the National Telegraph YouTube channel.
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I was kicking myself yesterday because, of course, I was in transit at the exact same time
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the biggest story that I had been following for a few months came to its final conclusion,
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that, of course, being the court case for the Terrebonne rioting in Quebec that the court has
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just ruled is going to have to go to a by-election. So we previously have been talking about this
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rioting after the last federal election. The Liberal candidate ended up winning the rioting
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by a single vote, one vote, and that's happened in other elections, and the elections have been
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straight up. It's just, that's just how it happens sometimes. But in this case, we had Elections
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Canada screwing up big time. A major area of the rioting, you know, just one big postal code area,
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had been sent mail-in ballots with the wrong return address on them. And it was the more
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Bloc Québécois-heavy part of the rioting. It's a big rioting where there are urban centers and there
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are suburban and rural areas. I believe it was a suburban-ish rural area that had this misprint,
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which is going to be more of the Bloc Québécois voting crowd. And so when the Liberal won by one
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vote, obviously it was a situation based on that mess up by Elections Canada. You can't certify that
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race. But then we had a court case that ended up at first siding with the Liberals, or I guess just
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siding with the current results of the election, where the judge had this mealy-mouthed explanation
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that, you know, it'd be really bad if I inserted myself into this race and then overturned the
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results. Because, you know, screw-ups and little issues happen in all elections, and we can't run
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them all back just because of little screw-ups. And you're thinking, okay, yes, is it a little screw-up
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if just 10 or 15 people didn't get their ballots in because of a problem? Okay, sure. But the screw-up
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was on the part of the people officiating the election. That makes it a big screw-up if 15
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people were just never going to be able to vote the way that they wanted to because Elections Canada
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had just misprinted stuff. And so right now we know that the Liberal probably didn't win based on
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all of the people from that area who probably tried to mail in a ballot, who were more likely to
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be Bloc Québécois voters, who are not able to actually do so. So that was a really stupid,
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that was really stupid to happen, with this judge basically saying, eh, things happen,
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that's just how the cookie crumbles sometimes. The Bloc Québécois then put forward the money to
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appeal the decision and go to the Supreme Court of Canada, and they won. So it says,
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Supreme Court of Canada, a null single vote win in Terrebonne riding, vacating seat. So this
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automatically has kicked out the current Liberal MP, Tatiana Agusti, and it's going to go to a
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by-election. And the bad news for Mark Carney and the Liberals is this is a by-election they
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probably can't win, unless there's a lot more voter issues from Elections Canada, but I don't want to
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get into that. Before I read some of the details, guys, I just want to remind you that if you like
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the show, make sure to leave a like on this video, subscribe if you're not yet a subscriber,
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per month that helps make it more sustainable for me and makes me less reliant on the YouTube
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algorithm. But now let's get into some of these details. It says here in the Montreal Gazette,
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the Supreme Court of Canada on Friday granted an appeal by a Bloc Québécois candidate who lost the
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federal election in Terrebonne riding by a single vote, vacating the seat and requiring a by-election
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to determine the winner. Liberal Tatiana Agusti won the seat in the April 28th general election
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after a judicial recount, but Bloc Québécois candidate Natalie Sinclair Desgane, I can't read
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French names, I'm sorry, appealed to the courts who found in Agusti's favor. Agusti has been sitting
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as the MP for the riding since she was sworn in on May 22nd. Elections Canada said Friday a by-election
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will be called within 180 days to fill the seat and it is ready to administer that by-election.
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Sinclair let out a loud sigh of relief shortly after she heard the ruling announced from the
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bench following a hearing earlier on Friday. Chief Justice Richard Wagner simply announced the decision
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reflected the opinion of the majority of the nine justices and the reasons would be specified in a
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written decision released later. Quote, the Supreme Court decided today that every vote counts,
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that one person's vote is not worth more than another person's vote and that in this event,
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in the event of a tie, the election must be rerun. And they're basically saying that in the result of
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a tie because they had a few people, but they had one woman who could fully verify that she tried to
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mail in a ballot and it bounced back to her. And so technically it's a tie. There were probably more
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people that the mail-in issue had affected, but they wouldn't have been able to actually have all the
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evidence ready to go to prove that they attempted to vote. But this is not great for Mark Carney
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because I need to now show you what the terrible in writing looks like on 338 Canada. This is what
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things currently look like. This is the odds of winning between the Liberals and the Bloc Québécois
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with, of course, the Conservatives and the NDP having no chance in this writing. The Bloc are still
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sitting, even with the Liberals rising a little bit over the last couple of months, the Bloc still sits
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with a two-thirds chance of taking this writing back. In fact, I think that a lot of voters will
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pretty much vote for the Bloc candidate simply because the system really tried to screw them over in
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this election and they have far more of a hero narrative than Tatiana Agusti, who's just some
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corporate liberal, you know, pawn of Mark Carney. The one problem we have in all of this is that
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Mark Carney might even just use this as an excuse to call a snap election because he's not getting his
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majority at all. Although the problem also is that if he's the one who calls the election, he then looks
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like the arrogant one who just cares about power, causing Canadians to backlash against him. I'm
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wondering if Mark Carney is going to let these springtime by-elections happen or he's going to use
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as an excuse to just have a big general election. But right now he is objectively caught between a
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rock and a hard place. If these by-elections go forward and his party underperforms at a bunch of
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them or they lose this terrible writing to the Bloc Quebecois, not only is their minority position
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weaker, but it's going to make their government look weaker. And the problem for Mark Carney is time is not
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on his side. Right now time is on his side in the sense that technically speaking, let's just say
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an election gets called. It's not Mark Carney's fault. It's not Paulio's fault. The public sees it
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as neutral. He at this moment would win a majority government. So he wants an election now, but he can't
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call it because if he calls the election, well, then he's the villain. He's the arrogant power seeker
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and voters would backlash against him. But the problem is, is that if he tries to do this in
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maybe six months or a year or two, the thing is that a lot more of the rot of the liberal economy
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is going to set in and people are going to be backlashing against the liberals harder.
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Carney's only up high now because he's gotten recently into a new conflict with U.S. President
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Donald Trump. Once these conflicts blow over, that's when you see the conservatives come back up
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and start matching the liberals in the polls again, or sometimes even beating them in the
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polls. And it's still pretty early on to Mark Carney's tenure as prime minister. He's not even
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been prime minister for a full year yet. So although I would say the honeymoon phase of his prime
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ministership is over, for most prime ministers, it would still be going on right now. The fact that
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back in December, it was kind of a 50-50 if the liberals would be leading in the polls or the
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conservatives would be leading, is really bad when you're a new prime minister, you often get
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compared to Donald Trump in the sense that you get to kind of play off of him and pretend you're good
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just because you're not the guy tariffing Canada. And even then, he still had weak numbers. Now,
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his approval numbers are oddly good, or not even oddly good. He's just a boring guy, so it's hard to
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dislike him. So he always has good approval. But I think there is also that sort of sense in most
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people's minds who even think that Carney's a good guy, that his party and his government are not
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very good. In a future video, I actually want to cover the segment from CPAC, Not Many People
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Noticed, where the liberal on the panel just admitted that he hasn't gotten anything actually
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done so far. She's just basically, she had wishful thinking about, well, he's going to be getting
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some good stuff done. But so far, almost a full year in, nothing has actually been delivered that
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anyone would describe as a big win for him. But so here's the, here's basically the groundwork.
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We have this terrible in writing, the block are probably going to win. We have University
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Rosedale coming up as a by-election. We have Scarborough coming up as a by-election, where
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the liberals are oddly taking in an NDP MPP as their candidate. We might have one to be replacing
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Nate Erskine Smith if he decides to vacate his seat within the next month or so. And so what we have
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is a lot of safe liberal writings. But if the liberals start to not perform as well in these
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by-elections, I would say that the chance of having a snap election are cut in half. If the
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conservatives do, or the liberals do quite well, then the liberals might think about doing a by-a snap
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election later on in the year. Oftentimes, snap elections will be used as a litmus test for where a
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party is at. So depending on where Carney sees himself after these by-elections, we may be in
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a summer or fall 2026 snap election. Anyways, without all being said, thank you guys for watching
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this video. That was just kind of the miniature update I wanted to give on that situation. Great
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for the Bloc Québécois candidate. They're not going to be screwed over by Elections Canada being sloppy,
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and they may actually become the MP. And then also for the conservatives, well, if I give some advice
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to the conservatives, it doesn't matter if any of the elections in Scarborough or University
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Rosedale or if Nate Erskine-Smith leaves Beaches East York, it doesn't matter if any of these writings
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are not good for the conservatives. You run as hard as humanly possible in them just for the headline
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that says the conservatives did 12 points better than they usually do. That's what you want. It
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doesn't matter if you can't win. You throw everything at the wall to prove that you are still alive
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and kicking. I find strategists sometimes just say, well, we can't win it, so what's the point?
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Let's just put in a token effort, put in some consultant as the candidate. No, put in a really
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strong, great candidate who's a big personality into some of these city writings, and you will do
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better. Stop running boring consultants and lobbyists as candidates. They are not electorally
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successful. Anyways, with that all being said, thank you guys for watching. Like, share, and subscribe,