The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Carney's Majority is IMPOSSIBLE - Liberal MP steps down after court overturns her election win!

00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here, and welcome back to the National Telegraph YouTube channel.

00:00:06.060 I was kicking myself yesterday because, of course, I was in transit at the exact same time

00:00:13.320 the biggest story that I had been following for a few months came to its final conclusion,

00:00:18.760 that, of course, being the court case for the Terrebonne rioting in Quebec that the court has

00:00:25.060 just ruled is going to have to go to a by-election. So we previously have been talking about this

00:00:30.920 rioting after the last federal election. The Liberal candidate ended up winning the rioting

00:00:36.380 by a single vote, one vote, and that's happened in other elections, and the elections have been

00:00:43.860 straight up. It's just, that's just how it happens sometimes. But in this case, we had Elections

00:00:50.020 Canada screwing up big time. A major area of the rioting, you know, just one big postal code area,

00:00:57.500 had been sent mail-in ballots with the wrong return address on them. And it was the more

00:01:04.240 Bloc Québécois-heavy part of the rioting. It's a big rioting where there are urban centers and there

00:01:09.560 are suburban and rural areas. I believe it was a suburban-ish rural area that had this misprint,

00:01:15.080 which is going to be more of the Bloc Québécois voting crowd. And so when the Liberal won by one

00:01:21.540 vote, obviously it was a situation based on that mess up by Elections Canada. You can't certify that

00:01:28.800 race. But then we had a court case that ended up at first siding with the Liberals, or I guess just

00:01:36.840 siding with the current results of the election, where the judge had this mealy-mouthed explanation

00:01:42.220 that, you know, it'd be really bad if I inserted myself into this race and then overturned the 0.98

00:01:48.780 results. Because, you know, screw-ups and little issues happen in all elections, and we can't run

00:01:54.140 them all back just because of little screw-ups. And you're thinking, okay, yes, is it a little screw-up

00:02:01.140 if just 10 or 15 people didn't get their ballots in because of a problem? Okay, sure. But the screw-up

00:02:07.880 was on the part of the people officiating the election. That makes it a big screw-up if 15

00:02:14.200 people were just never going to be able to vote the way that they wanted to because Elections Canada

00:02:19.420 had just misprinted stuff. And so right now we know that the Liberal probably didn't win based on

00:02:25.760 all of the people from that area who probably tried to mail in a ballot, who were more likely to

00:02:30.380 be Bloc Québécois voters, who are not able to actually do so. So that was a really stupid,

00:02:36.020 that was really stupid to happen, with this judge basically saying, eh, things happen,

00:02:41.420 that's just how the cookie crumbles sometimes. The Bloc Québécois then put forward the money to

00:02:46.700 appeal the decision and go to the Supreme Court of Canada, and they won. So it says,

00:02:52.940 Supreme Court of Canada, a null single vote win in Terrebonne riding, vacating seat. So this

00:02:58.080 automatically has kicked out the current Liberal MP, Tatiana Agusti, and it's going to go to a

00:03:05.760 by-election. And the bad news for Mark Carney and the Liberals is this is a by-election they

00:03:10.640 probably can't win, unless there's a lot more voter issues from Elections Canada, but I don't want to

00:03:17.360 get into that. Before I read some of the details, guys, I just want to remind you that if you like

00:03:22.240 the show, make sure to leave a like on this video, subscribe if you're not yet a subscriber,

00:03:26.740 leave a comment about what you think about all this. And of course, if you want to financially

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00:03:36.480 per month that helps make it more sustainable for me and makes me less reliant on the YouTube

00:03:41.280 algorithm. But now let's get into some of these details. It says here in the Montreal Gazette,

00:03:48.100 the Supreme Court of Canada on Friday granted an appeal by a Bloc Québécois candidate who lost the

00:03:54.240 federal election in Terrebonne riding by a single vote, vacating the seat and requiring a by-election

00:04:00.080 to determine the winner. Liberal Tatiana Agusti won the seat in the April 28th general election

00:04:07.720 after a judicial recount, but Bloc Québécois candidate Natalie Sinclair Desgane, I can't read

00:04:15.620 French names, I'm sorry, appealed to the courts who found in Agusti's favor. Agusti has been sitting

00:04:21.240 as the MP for the riding since she was sworn in on May 22nd. Elections Canada said Friday a by-election

00:04:27.020 will be called within 180 days to fill the seat and it is ready to administer that by-election.

00:04:32.480 Sinclair let out a loud sigh of relief shortly after she heard the ruling announced from the

00:04:37.040 bench following a hearing earlier on Friday. Chief Justice Richard Wagner simply announced the decision

00:04:42.600 reflected the opinion of the majority of the nine justices and the reasons would be specified in a

00:04:48.820 written decision released later. Quote, the Supreme Court decided today that every vote counts,

00:04:53.360 that one person's vote is not worth more than another person's vote and that in this event,

00:04:58.580 in the event of a tie, the election must be rerun. And they're basically saying that in the result of

00:05:04.480 a tie because they had a few people, but they had one woman who could fully verify that she tried to 0.92

00:05:09.880 mail in a ballot and it bounced back to her. And so technically it's a tie. There were probably more

00:05:15.160 people that the mail-in issue had affected, but they wouldn't have been able to actually have all the

00:05:20.460 evidence ready to go to prove that they attempted to vote. But this is not great for Mark Carney

00:05:26.480 because I need to now show you what the terrible in writing looks like on 338 Canada. This is what

00:05:33.140 things currently look like. This is the odds of winning between the Liberals and the Bloc Québécois

00:05:38.140 with, of course, the Conservatives and the NDP having no chance in this writing. The Bloc are still

00:05:42.660 sitting, even with the Liberals rising a little bit over the last couple of months, the Bloc still sits

00:05:48.300 with a two-thirds chance of taking this writing back. In fact, I think that a lot of voters will

00:05:55.660 pretty much vote for the Bloc candidate simply because the system really tried to screw them over in

00:06:01.340 this election and they have far more of a hero narrative than Tatiana Agusti, who's just some 1.00

00:06:06.660 corporate liberal, you know, pawn of Mark Carney. The one problem we have in all of this is that

00:06:14.380 Mark Carney might even just use this as an excuse to call a snap election because he's not getting his

00:06:21.380 majority at all. Although the problem also is that if he's the one who calls the election, he then looks

00:06:27.900 like the arrogant one who just cares about power, causing Canadians to backlash against him. I'm

00:06:34.120 wondering if Mark Carney is going to let these springtime by-elections happen or he's going to use

00:06:41.400 as an excuse to just have a big general election. But right now he is objectively caught between a

00:06:47.420 rock and a hard place. If these by-elections go forward and his party underperforms at a bunch of

00:06:53.380 them or they lose this terrible writing to the Bloc Quebecois, not only is their minority position

00:06:58.860 weaker, but it's going to make their government look weaker. And the problem for Mark Carney is time is not

00:07:04.980 on his side. Right now time is on his side in the sense that technically speaking, let's just say

00:07:10.560 an election gets called. It's not Mark Carney's fault. It's not Paulio's fault. The public sees it

00:07:15.900 as neutral. He at this moment would win a majority government. So he wants an election now, but he can't

00:07:22.620 call it because if he calls the election, well, then he's the villain. He's the arrogant power seeker

00:07:28.140 and voters would backlash against him. But the problem is, is that if he tries to do this in

00:07:33.000 maybe six months or a year or two, the thing is that a lot more of the rot of the liberal economy

00:07:40.100 is going to set in and people are going to be backlashing against the liberals harder.

00:07:44.660 Carney's only up high now because he's gotten recently into a new conflict with U.S. President

00:07:50.360 Donald Trump. Once these conflicts blow over, that's when you see the conservatives come back up

00:07:55.580 and start matching the liberals in the polls again, or sometimes even beating them in the

00:08:00.360 polls. And it's still pretty early on to Mark Carney's tenure as prime minister. He's not even

00:08:05.760 been prime minister for a full year yet. So although I would say the honeymoon phase of his prime

00:08:11.400 ministership is over, for most prime ministers, it would still be going on right now. The fact that

00:08:17.280 back in December, it was kind of a 50-50 if the liberals would be leading in the polls or the

00:08:21.960 conservatives would be leading, is really bad when you're a new prime minister, you often get

00:08:28.000 compared to Donald Trump in the sense that you get to kind of play off of him and pretend you're good

00:08:33.040 just because you're not the guy tariffing Canada. And even then, he still had weak numbers. Now,

00:08:38.580 his approval numbers are oddly good, or not even oddly good. He's just a boring guy, so it's hard to

00:08:44.840 dislike him. So he always has good approval. But I think there is also that sort of sense in most

00:08:50.780 people's minds who even think that Carney's a good guy, that his party and his government are not

00:08:55.360 very good. In a future video, I actually want to cover the segment from CPAC, Not Many People

00:09:00.000 Noticed, where the liberal on the panel just admitted that he hasn't gotten anything actually

00:09:05.100 done so far. She's just basically, she had wishful thinking about, well, he's going to be getting

00:09:09.500 some good stuff done. But so far, almost a full year in, nothing has actually been delivered that

00:09:15.900 anyone would describe as a big win for him. But so here's the, here's basically the groundwork.

00:09:23.220 We have this terrible in writing, the block are probably going to win. We have University

00:09:27.540 Rosedale coming up as a by-election. We have Scarborough coming up as a by-election, where

00:09:32.740 the liberals are oddly taking in an NDP MPP as their candidate. We might have one to be replacing

00:09:39.480 Nate Erskine Smith if he decides to vacate his seat within the next month or so. And so what we have

00:09:46.120 is a lot of safe liberal writings. But if the liberals start to not perform as well in these

00:09:51.780 by-elections, I would say that the chance of having a snap election are cut in half. If the

00:09:57.520 conservatives do, or the liberals do quite well, then the liberals might think about doing a by-a snap

00:10:03.320 election later on in the year. Oftentimes, snap elections will be used as a litmus test for where a

00:10:09.100 party is at. So depending on where Carney sees himself after these by-elections, we may be in

00:10:14.280 a summer or fall 2026 snap election. Anyways, without all being said, thank you guys for watching

00:10:20.960 this video. That was just kind of the miniature update I wanted to give on that situation. Great

00:10:25.780 for the Bloc Québécois candidate. They're not going to be screwed over by Elections Canada being sloppy,

00:10:30.880 and they may actually become the MP. And then also for the conservatives, well, if I give some advice

00:10:36.860 to the conservatives, it doesn't matter if any of the elections in Scarborough or University

00:10:42.220 Rosedale or if Nate Erskine-Smith leaves Beaches East York, it doesn't matter if any of these writings

00:10:47.840 are not good for the conservatives. You run as hard as humanly possible in them just for the headline

00:10:54.280 that says the conservatives did 12 points better than they usually do. That's what you want. It

00:10:59.280 doesn't matter if you can't win. You throw everything at the wall to prove that you are still alive

00:11:04.880 and kicking. I find strategists sometimes just say, well, we can't win it, so what's the point?

00:11:09.460 Let's just put in a token effort, put in some consultant as the candidate. No, put in a really

00:11:14.140 strong, great candidate who's a big personality into some of these city writings, and you will do

00:11:19.680 better. Stop running boring consultants and lobbyists as candidates. They are not electorally

00:11:26.720 successful. Anyways, with that all being said, thank you guys for watching. Like, share, and subscribe,

00:11:32.660 and I'll see you guys all next time.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - February 14, 2026

Carney's Majority is IMPOSSIBLE - Liberal MP steps down after court overturns her election win!

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