The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - April 16, 2025


Carney's popularity dips - Liberal look shaky before debates!


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15 minutes

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2,937

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159

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1

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3

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Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Wyatt Claypool breaks down the latest polling numbers from Abacus Data and takes a look at where things stand for the Liberals heading into Thursday's debate. He also takes a deep dive into why Mark Carney could lose the election if he underperforms in the debates.

Transcript

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00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. So Mark Carney is going into the federal election debates tomorrow and Thursday in a far more vulnerable position than he was in last week.
00:00:11.980 Last week, the liberals were actually doing quite well. In the polls, I trust, they were leading by four to six points, and that was because of the Trump Liberation Day tariff announcement.
00:00:22.400 That is a great news cycle for the liberals to play off of because they are running a mostly anti-Trump, anti-American campaign.
00:00:31.060 Since the Liberation Day tariffs have basically just been dropped and the only ones remaining on Canada are in part because of Carney's stupidity in negotiating,
00:00:39.640 they are now in a not-so-hot position right before Carney has to debate in French today, and then we have the English debate tomorrow.
00:00:47.400 The Green Party actually got dropped from both debates because they didn't meet the requirements.
00:00:53.100 While they do have two sitting MPs, they didn't have candidates and 90% of the ridings that they were planning on contesting.
00:01:00.140 I say planning on contesting because the Bloc Québécois obviously just means 90% of ridings in Quebec because it's standing in the elections,
00:01:08.340 and they also have enough of a percentage of the vote. I think that also overrides that.
00:01:12.540 But I'm not sure if that's going to be a good thing or a bad thing for the liberals to not have the Greens on stage.
00:01:18.460 It does mean that all the other leaders have more speaking time to attack Carney,
00:01:22.900 and they don't have to share it with some unsubstantial Green Party leader.
00:01:26.480 At the same time, I'm wondering if in the French debate it would have been good to have even more people on stage
00:01:32.320 who all have far better French than Carney, because it's more embarrassing to have the worst French out of five people 0.99
00:01:37.960 than the worst French out of four people. 0.57
00:01:40.140 But now, I want to get into the numbers and demonstrate to you where Mark Carney could easily start losing this election
00:01:46.920 if he even has a subpar debate performance.
00:01:50.460 Before I get into it, though, guys, just a reminder to like this video if you've been liking my federal election coverage.
00:01:56.680 Leave a comment. I like to hear what people think on the topics of the day.
00:02:00.520 And subscribe if you are not yet a subscriber and you want to keep up with my reporting each day.
00:02:05.460 So here is the latest numbers from Abacus Data.
00:02:08.960 And Abacus Data, by the way, has always been the pollster to this entire election cycle I've put the most trust into.
00:02:14.980 Even last week, when they had the conservatives down by six points, I would still tell you that they are a good pollster.
00:02:21.120 It just reflected that the news cycle was particularly good for the Carney liberals.
00:02:26.860 This week, not so much.
00:02:28.420 And in fact, what I think we've been hitting, as you can see here, this week the liberals are at 40%, conservatives 38, NDP 11, block 7, People's Party 2.
00:02:38.640 I really don't think they're going to get 2.
00:02:40.320 In fact, I think that the People's Party might not even get 1%.
00:02:43.660 And the Greens have 2.
00:02:45.580 So this is a very bad position for the liberals to be in.
00:02:50.420 In fact, I ran these numbers in the 338 election simulator as closely as I could get them because they only allowed you to slide the bars within their own confidence interval.
00:03:00.920 So I couldn't put the NDP up to 11.
00:03:02.580 I couldn't quite put the Bloc Québécois up to 7.
00:03:05.380 But if I put the numbers around this, even giving the liberals 4.5% and the conservatives just a flat 38, this, in fact, 40% liberal, 38% conservative, 11 NDP, and 7 Bloc, results in a conservative minority government.
00:03:23.500 And again, I'm not just saying this because it's wishful thinking.
00:03:26.840 Just when you're on the ground campaigning, I am in Nepean, the riding Mark Carney is running, and I'm helping Barbara Ball.
00:03:33.480 In this riding, it doesn't feel like this is going to be an election where conservatives only get 38%.
00:03:39.220 We're probably more at around 40%.
00:03:42.180 Maybe the liberals are at 41 or 42.
00:03:44.720 But I think the conservatives are going to be able to get 40.
00:03:48.440 And so let's just go down a little bit deeper and show what's happening.
00:03:52.820 Well, I just do want to note on the side there, you can see since last week, the liberals have actually lost 2%.
00:03:57.840 Conservatives had no change.
00:03:59.360 The NDP gained 2, and the Bloc gained 1.
00:04:01.220 I think you actually could see the NDP at 11% and the Bloc at 7%.
00:04:06.220 That's realistic because of all the scandals going on for the liberals right now.
00:04:10.640 What I was going to mention earlier, sorry if I'm a little bit scattered-brained,
00:04:14.460 but I think why also the liberals were able to get ahead last week and it didn't feel like things were really affecting them negatively,
00:04:21.300 the bad things that were happening on the campaign,
00:04:23.620 were because of the fact that critical mass hadn't been hit yet.
00:04:27.660 Justin Trudeau was a terrible liberal leader and prime minister.
00:04:32.360 And when Carney started having a few scandals, I think people who were planning on voting liberal were still willing to think,
00:04:39.560 well, he's new, people make mistakes, but he's still much different than Justin Trudeau.
00:04:44.620 This week, we were hit by like 5 new scandals for Carney on top of the dozen we had before.
00:04:50.240 Now I think you're going to start peeling away at liberal voters along the margins thinking,
00:04:55.760 aw, crap, this guy's literally no different.
00:04:58.220 He is willing to engage in the exact same unethical behavior.
00:05:02.260 Here is the chart for people certain to vote, and this should also scare the liberals.
00:05:07.840 Certain to vote, the conservatives are actually leading.
00:05:10.760 The conservatives are at 40%, the liberals are at 39%, NDP at 12%,
00:05:15.240 Bloc 7, Greens 2, People's Party 1.
00:05:18.540 This would be a pretty large minority government for the conservatives, if not cusping on a majority.
00:05:25.160 Because the problem here for the liberals is that when the Bloc Québécois are at 7%,
00:05:30.240 their 39% or 40% represents gains in Quebec,
00:05:34.860 but if the Bloc Québécois are also maintaining what they had before,
00:05:38.140 the liberal gains are mostly just in Montreal where they already win all the seats.
00:05:42.100 Or they might get a little bit higher in Quebec City,
00:05:45.040 or they might get a little bit higher in northern Quebec.
00:05:47.600 But Quebec's one of those weird provinces, and there's a few other provinces like it.
00:05:51.640 New Brunswick is kind of like it as well,
00:05:53.680 where certain regions go for a certain party so hard
00:05:56.680 that the polls have to shift wildly in favor of one party over the other
00:06:01.520 in order for them to actually gain seats.
00:06:04.120 Saskatchewan is a lot like this.
00:06:06.120 We have, the NDP cannot win elections in Saskatchewan very easily,
00:06:10.640 because after they win all of Saskatoon and all of Regina,
00:06:14.280 they then need a rural seat or two.
00:06:16.320 And those seats are like 50 plus percent Saskatchewan party,
00:06:21.400 and even then there's some other right-wing parties that end up getting 2% or 3% or 4%,
00:06:25.580 and the NDP comes in at 35%.
00:06:27.580 So you can imagine that the NDP have to gain massively in the polls
00:06:32.400 in order to unlock any of those rural seats, and that's the same thing in Quebec.
00:06:35.760 The arm of Quebec that's along the main U.S. border,
00:06:39.660 that's very conservative, and it's not going to stop being conservative.
00:06:42.780 There are a couple seats in Quebec, or the Conservatives, or Quebec City,
00:06:46.280 that they win, but the next best party to win those would be the Bloc Québécois.
00:06:51.080 And the Liberals then win the island of Montreal by dictatorship numbers for the Liberals.
00:06:56.840 The Liberals usually don't win ridings by massive, massive numbers,
00:07:00.120 but in Montreal, they can win seats by above 50%.
00:07:03.160 And so when the Liberals are at 42% in Quebec,
00:07:07.360 that means they're winning sometimes these seats by 65%.
00:07:10.480 It doesn't mean they're winning any of the Bloc Québécois suburbs.
00:07:13.180 They need to be near 50% to actually start unlocking a lot of these Quebec ridings.
00:07:18.520 So if the Bloc Québécois comes in at 7%,
00:07:21.080 not 5% or 4% like other pollsters are showing,
00:07:24.780 if they come in at 7%, it basically means the Liberals made no gains.
00:07:28.140 And because many of the Liberals' national polling gains have been in Quebec,
00:07:32.280 it means that in the rest of Canada, they're sucking.
00:07:35.260 They're getting blown out by the Conservatives,
00:07:37.200 and that is when Nepean is absolutely in play and Carney could lose his own seat.
00:07:41.880 Because much of that 39% is in Quebec,
00:07:45.100 which means they're far less everywhere else,
00:07:47.240 and the Conservatives don't do that well in Quebec,
00:07:49.060 which means they're far more outside of Quebec.
00:07:51.820 So now let's go down to another part of this poll that is very interesting.
00:07:56.560 You can see my point right here.
00:07:58.900 Liberals are doing quite well in Quebec.
00:08:00.980 But if the Bloc Québécois can maintain that 32%,
00:08:03.960 it means all that 39% is all concentrated in Montreal.
00:08:07.880 Now let's go down to the polling on Carney.
00:08:12.460 This is a problem for Carney.
00:08:14.520 Carney, before, in the past couple of weeks,
00:08:17.580 when his approval rating was at 48 and 47,
00:08:20.620 that was during the Liberation tariff talk.
00:08:22.780 That was a very good news cycle for the Liberals.
00:08:26.160 Now that we're out of the Liberation tariff talk from the United States,
00:08:30.100 his negative has gone from 28% to 32%.
00:08:33.880 He has jumped up by a 4% on his disapproval rating,
00:08:37.160 and his approval rating has slipped from 48 to 45.
00:08:40.900 Naturally, it takes people a while to kind of change their minds on leaders.
00:08:44.300 So the one thing that Carney does have going for him is there's only a couple of weeks left for people to change their minds on the man.
00:08:49.980 And the problem, though, is early voting hasn't really started yet.
00:08:53.520 And so what he's having to do is he's having to try at his darndest in this debate to have it not slip anymore.
00:09:01.380 Because if people start wavering on him, that's what could suppress his early vote turnout.
00:09:06.220 Because even those who like him, if he has a bad debate performance,
00:09:09.540 and maybe certain other people are already starting to go from approving to disapproving,
00:09:14.660 maybe people don't show up for early voting because they don't really know what to think about him anymore,
00:09:18.500 and they need a little bit more time.
00:09:19.960 Whereas the Conservatives, the people who like the Polyev, really like him. 1.00
00:09:25.400 And obviously, Polyev has a much higher disapproval and approval rating,
00:09:29.040 because way more people know of him.
00:09:31.200 When you actually add up Carney's approval and disapproval,
00:09:34.000 there is a good third of Canadians who don't really know much about the man.
00:09:37.620 When you go to Polyev, there's maybe like 10%, 15% who don't know what to think of him,
00:09:42.320 and they're probably just neutral observers at that point.
00:09:44.940 But he's 40% approval to 43% disapproval.
00:09:48.720 A big turnaround from a couple weeks ago, where he only had 38% approval and 44% disapproval.
00:09:56.460 And here is another thing that we have.
00:09:59.740 This is the chart I wanted.
00:10:03.660 This is the thing that this election is all about.
00:10:06.780 If the election becomes about Donald Trump, the Liberals win.
00:10:10.280 If the election becomes about the economy, the Conservatives win.
00:10:13.940 And the good thing for the Conservatives is that as time has been going on,
00:10:18.740 what people want the election to be about has gone from Trump to mostly economic issues.
00:10:25.380 Look at this.
00:10:25.900 These are competing election narratives.
00:10:28.320 Each of them have the Trump factor in them.
00:10:30.860 But let's look at this first one.
00:10:32.620 If the election is between dealing with Donald Trump and delivering change and policy direction,
00:10:38.660 it started back in late March, 54% people wanted it to be about Trump, 46% wanted it to be about change.
00:10:46.920 As of today, it is 45% Trump to 55% change.
00:10:52.060 Other polls already had the cost of living issues leading or dealing with the economic growth.
00:11:00.580 Those two framings were already beating Trump, but they have since then increased their share by a little bit.
00:11:06.700 And what you have to remember, too, is that the NDP are also competing on the anti-Trump side.
00:11:12.040 And so because they're doing that, that means if the election is about Trump and the economy
00:11:17.260 and the Conservatives are leading with the people who care about the economy,
00:11:22.680 Carney and the Liberals, by the late stages of the election,
00:11:25.540 might be having to split 45% of the vote with the NDP.
00:11:29.920 And so they're just hoping that the NDP comes in real low with their own support.
00:11:35.480 Because if the NDP comes in at 8%, 9%, or 10%, the Liberals can't win.
00:11:39.980 Because the NDP puts a massive drag on the Liberals in Ontario and Manitoba and Vancouver,
00:11:45.980 where they need to, or BC, although most of the Liberal seats are just in Vancouver.
00:11:49.720 Those are the areas the NDP put a drag on them.
00:11:51.760 And then obviously the bloc, if they can come in at 6%, 7%, or 8%,
00:11:55.220 they put a massive drag on the Liberal seat count in Quebec.
00:11:58.820 You can win.
00:11:59.920 40% of the vote is the Liberals and come in with only 120 seats if your regionals suck.
00:12:05.260 And right now the regionals are not looking great for the Liberals.
00:12:09.200 And so if Carney has a bad debate performance here, he comes in a little weak
00:12:13.500 and his numbers start softening even more, probably can't win anymore.
00:12:18.660 Probably is losing the election.
00:12:20.760 I want to pull up this one chart from Angus Reid.
00:12:23.140 I don't even like Angus Reid.
00:12:24.440 I've even explained before why they're sampling over samples Liberals. 0.85
00:12:28.340 They get all of their data from old air miles.
00:12:32.660 All they use is air miles data.
00:12:34.900 So the people who they poll disproportionately fly, which means they disproportionately work white-collar jobs
00:12:40.560 or are kind of the jet-setting crowd who are more prone to being liberal.
00:12:45.640 And so even then, when they have the Conservatives only falling behind in their poll by four or five points,
00:12:50.280 I consider that a win, considering who they're polling.
00:12:53.540 But even their polls, and this part should be accurate because they're just saying,
00:12:57.460 of the people who are voting Conservative and of the people who are voting Liberal,
00:13:00.620 who is more confident to show up?
00:13:02.440 Look at this chart.
00:13:03.140 While all the parties have been increasing over time, because naturally,
00:13:07.100 if you are thinking about voting for a party long enough,
00:13:09.520 you're eventually going to firm up your commitment to voting,
00:13:14.260 the Conservatives are currently at 76% of people saying that they are definitely going to be voting for the Conservatives.
00:13:20.100 Liberals are at 63%.
00:13:22.460 Not fantastic.
00:13:24.200 Only 63%, less than two-thirds of Liberals, are very committed to voting Liberal.
00:13:29.880 That is, again, why the debate matters so much.
00:13:32.060 If Polioff can throw some doubt in these people's minds and they stay at 63%,
00:13:36.000 they drop or they only go up a little bit more, so they're only 70% by election day,
00:13:40.920 that means if the Liberals are at, let's say, the Liberals are at 42% of the vote
00:13:45.580 and the Conservatives are at 40% in terms of polling,
00:13:48.700 but the Conservatives draw out 90% of the people who are going to vote for them
00:13:52.240 and the Liberals only draw out 80%, Conservatives win.
00:13:55.340 Conservatives would have been by a landslide in that scenario.
00:13:58.380 So this is to build some of your confidence up
00:14:01.360 that there is absolutely not just a path for the Conservatives to win,
00:14:04.720 but a very good path for the Conservatives to win.
00:14:07.280 If Polioff has a good French and English debate performance,
00:14:10.100 I think this is now an 80-20 election for the Conservatives to win.
00:14:13.780 It would be Polioff's election to win then.
00:14:16.240 Right now, this is currently an election for Carney to lose.
00:14:20.000 I consider it a 50-50 election,
00:14:22.040 but you would say that Carney is still technically in the driver's seat
00:14:25.440 based on what the most of the pollsters are saying.
00:14:28.080 Again, when we go to the committed voter section of these polls,
00:14:32.480 it looks like the Conservatives are doing better.
00:14:34.460 Even advocates' data says those who are confident in their choice,
00:14:37.800 it then leans 41% Conservative to 39% or 40%...
00:14:42.680 Or it was 40% Conservative to 39% Liberal.
00:14:46.360 Big difference there.
00:14:48.020 Yes, it's only 1% difference, but that's where elections are won.
00:14:50.880 Very few elections are won with somebody winning 50% of the vote
00:14:53.900 and the next best person coming in at 17%.
00:14:55.840 It's usually 43% to 39% or 44% to 40%.
00:14:59.920 That's where you're going to find the Conservative minority
00:15:02.040 or majority government within that three-point margin.
00:15:05.640 Anyways, so that should be it for me today, guys.
00:15:08.380 Hopefully you like me breaking down the polls
00:15:10.080 and using it to contextualize what we're seeing.
00:15:12.940 But I will be back, of course, a bit later
00:15:15.620 to talk more about the election, to talk about Carney's campaign.
00:15:18.360 I will be breaking down the French debate tomorrow.
00:15:21.040 I'm not sure if I'm live-streaming it tonight
00:15:22.660 because obviously I don't speak French
00:15:24.320 and you guys don't need me just telling you
00:15:26.700 what I think about the translators speaking for the candidates.
00:15:30.280 But I will try and live-stream the English debate tomorrow on Thursday.
00:15:34.940 So anyways, with that being said, I'll see you guys later.