00:01:12.180In just a second, we're going to get into the national numbers first, but I just want to remind you guys, if you like the show, make sure to leave a like on the video, subscribe if you're not yet a subscriber, leave a comment with what you think about all this, and consider hitting the join button and becoming a monthly contributing member if you like this sort of content and you want to help subsidize it.
00:01:31.840I am technically a certain form of a welfare queen, but I do keep all the content free, feel no obligation to become a paying member.
00:01:40.520Anyways, so let's start off with the Innovative Research Co-poll that was very interesting because it kind of went against other pollsters' trends.
00:01:48.860This is one of the other pollsters I actually really like.
00:01:51.200I just don't talk about them as often because they only do polls sometimes.
00:01:54.620One really interesting thing they do is they give the people who answer their polls a personality test.
00:01:59.800And it makes sure that basically they have a certain type, they have a good diversity of types of voters answering their polls.
00:02:07.280and they're not just getting a bunch of downtown liberal metropolitans or NDP progressives
00:02:13.080disproportionately answering the polls the way that I find Liaison and Leger and Ecos and Spark
00:02:19.520and Nanos end up having. You can say, well, we have a large sample. A large sample doesn't mean
00:02:24.840anything if you are polling downtown Toronto and Montreal Starbuckses. You do need farmers in rural
00:02:31.120areas. You need certain types of downtown Toronto voters because there's a diversity of them.
00:02:37.280But let's go into what their top line numbers currently look like.
00:02:41.580Innovative Research currently has, ooh, that's a really bad red.
00:02:45.280I always hate when I pull out a marker and it's like really faint.
00:02:49.200Innovative Research currently has the Liberals sitting at 41% support federally.
00:02:56.020Now, remember, in 2025, the Liberals had 43% of the popular votes, so this would represent a slight decline.
00:03:04.260Now, it's not because Mark Carney is wildly unpopular or anything like that. It's simply because a lot of people who probably are disappointed on the left, based on Mark Carney's performance, are starting to move back towards left-wing parties. They don't hate them, they just like other parties better.
00:03:23.080This poll also had the Conservative Party of Canada not doing too bad, sitting at 36% support.
00:03:31.800That is about five points down from where they were at.
00:03:34.920They were at 41 on election night in 2025.
00:03:38.320And considering the news cycles are really going Mark Carney's way, and he's the Prime Minister, and he does have an incumbent effect right now,
00:03:45.04041 to 36 ain't too bad especially because this is in the aftermath of another trade war scare
00:03:53.040so we then go to the NDP which is actually a little down from the previous poll that innovative
00:03:58.800research did but they are up from election night they are currently sitting at nine percent support
00:04:04.640in this one that's where a liaison and some of these other pollsters you can tell they have a
00:04:09.980bit of a left wing lean when they have the NDP up at like 15 these days or 14. The NDP are up from
00:04:16.700where they're at at 6% last election. But sorry, oh, actually, they're at 10. Sorry, there was
00:04:21.740actually a misprint on one of the polls. And I remember that they corrected it. So they're at 10.
00:04:26.220But any pollster putting the NDP at like 15 or 14, little high for them, they might be able to
00:04:32.380achieve that by next general election. But it's going to be a slow climb up from the pits that
00:04:36.700they were in last election, especially having lost Laurie Idlout from Nunavut and one of their
00:04:42.260only Quebec-Montreal MP is going to be leaving to go run provincially. Now, they can probably
00:04:48.180recapture that riding because it's just a very orange, progressive, Palestine-flag,
00:08:16.060They have the Liberals tied with the Conservatives in Saskatchewan, Manitoba. No, they're not. And do you know why? Farmers vote Conservative. That is an unbreakable rule of Canadian politics. They previously voted Social Credit in the 60s and 70s, or 50s as well. They vote Conservative now, and they're not going to stop voting Conservative.
00:08:35.260Yes, there are some rural ridings that vote liberal, but they're usually extremely Indigenous ridings, extremely government-dependent ridings.
00:08:44.220That's not really a rural farming riding.
00:08:47.000It's usually also up too far north to really be a farming riding.
00:09:05.260Still, they'll win a lot of Manitoba. But my point is, if you ever see a poll that puts the liberals in the lead or tied in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, no, because the conservatives are going to run up the score so much in Saskatchewan, unless the liberals win every seat in Manitoba. They are not going to be tied in terms of the popular vote between the two provinces.
00:09:24.320So that was interesting to see, only a five-point gap. And what I think is going on, which they haven't released the details on this yet, I hope Innovative does, is I think what Carney is having happen is he's losing business liberals. He is only, he's strengthening his elbows up base. Those people are more dedicated to him than ever.
00:09:43.980But the problem is, is that the business liberals voted for Carney because he's going to get a deal. And if he doesn't get a deal, yes, they're never going to slag Carney. They're not going to say they hate him, but they're not going to maybe even go and vote conservative either.
00:09:59.280They're just not going to vote because they were promised a trade deal.
00:10:03.400And yeah, elbows up and all that stuff.
00:10:06.720But these people run small, medium, and large businesses.
00:10:10.880They are very much sort of financial sector workers or at least very much they think about the financial sector a lot when it comes to their voting because they have a lot invested in the stock market or they own a business.
00:10:25.180or it's just their attitude is that they default vote liberal until the economy sucks. And you
00:10:31.000cannot tell these people that we should just be more patriotic. They're not going to go with that.
00:10:36.040This poll, what the liberals are really doing is they are eating up kind of the nationalist
00:10:41.720left vote, which is a big vote in Canada. If anything, liberals are more likely to be
00:10:46.860nationalists than conservatives. I would say conservatives are more likely to be patriotic.
00:10:50.960We want our country to be better. We don't just hate America. But they are eating up the America-hating vote. But I'm wondering how long that lasts until people say, yeah, elbows up was fun and all. Also, the price of eggs doubled.
00:11:03.940No, I mean, also, gas is extremely expensive. Also, I lost my job, so I'm not voting liberal anymore. Maybe they never even turn on Carney personally, but they stopped showing up and voting for him.
00:11:15.300But now in just a second, I want to erase all this.
00:11:17.500We're going to come back with the Abacus data poll.
00:11:41.840Hopefully you didn't miss me too much in that literal half a second where I paused.
00:11:46.040Anyways, so we are back with the Abacus data poll.
00:11:49.080I'm just going to run through what the numbers are very quickly here before we start analyzing the trends.
00:11:54.560So Abacus, which is a pollster I really like, they have the liberals currently sitting at 45% of the vote,
00:12:01.700a couple points better than they did in the last federal election.
00:12:05.120I believe they technically got like 43.7, so if you round up it was 44, so it might only be like a point better.
00:12:11.840depending on how you measure it. But they're at 45. The conservatives have a big gap on the
00:12:18.020conservatives. But what has happened to the conservative vote since last abacus poll is
00:12:22.820quite interesting here. The conservatives have 35% of the vote, which isn't that bad since last
00:12:30.420election. Again, because you're in an environment where there's a diversity of other voting options.
00:12:36.100So the vast majority of conservatives are sticking around. And I don't even think exactly
00:12:40.460conservatives are going to the liberals these days i think it's also one during the summer it's
00:12:45.040harder to get conservatives on the phone or to take a poll it's like a rule in american politics
00:12:50.340democrats gain leads during the summer and they lose them into the fall because conservative
00:12:55.760working class voters especially are more likely to not really be engaging in daily news watching
00:13:02.200and actually going back to the innovative research poll it was funny that one of the things that was
00:13:08.700found was that the people who support Carney the most are like the people who really follow the
00:13:14.400trade issue very very closely now liberals would say oh it shows just how educated our voters are
00:13:20.220we're just so educated and that's why we care it's like or you're over programmed with too much news
00:13:26.980information you end up supporting Carney not because he's doing a good job but simply because
00:13:32.200you sit around absorbing news that tells you Carney's political perspective and you feel very
00:13:38.320informed and you feel like it's very intelligent to be supporting him but overall he's not actually
00:13:43.240you know doing a good job but if it turns out people who don't really keep up with the news
00:13:48.180too much don't like Carney nearly as much they don't like him walking away from the trade deal
00:13:53.680now again with my perspective on the trade deals there were some really bad aspects I would have
00:13:57.500not signed on to and there were some things that were perfectly acceptable to me uh you know like
00:14:02.680getting rid of censorship bills and whatnot. But obviously, maybe I wouldn't have signed it.
00:14:08.800But the thing is that Carney doesn't seem to really know what a good part of the agreement
00:14:13.040and what a bad part was. He thought it was perfectly acceptable to take 25% steel and
00:14:17.400aluminum tariffs and some of these other higher tariff rates that I wouldn't have accepted. But
00:14:21.500the thing that was the breaking point for him was phantom issues around language and culture,
00:14:27.280which really was the americans don't want to pay for canada's c11 and c18 policies they don't want
00:14:33.780to have to subsidize quebec language rules and whatnot which is you know frankly fair enough
00:14:40.480but that was a sticking point for carney but not the 25 steel and aluminum tariffs but this is to
00:14:46.680say that if you don't watch cbc every day you are far more likely to not trust mark carney you are
00:14:54.360far more likely to actually be annoyed that there's no deal because you're not being programmed every
00:14:59.720day with excuses for Mark Carney and people saying, well, Trump bad, so it doesn't matter
00:15:04.020that Carney lied about his skills when it comes to getting a trade agreement. So this one doesn't
00:15:09.220actually have an other option with the PPC. They're rightfully at their 1% grade here. But now
00:15:15.680let's go over what makes this poll interesting. So right off the top, the liberals are leading
00:15:21.260the Conservatives by plus 10%. That is a substantial lead for them. Obviously, if an
00:15:28.760election happened today, that would be a Liberal majority, although where they're gaining the votes
00:15:33.280from is interesting. The Liberals in this poll have gone up by, can I get it here? Yeah, they've
00:15:41.580gone up in this poll. If I can pull up the right one, my goodness, people. They've gone up by plus
00:15:48.9003%. Now, I'm going to do the conservatives last, but the NDP have fallen by 1%, the Bloc have fallen
00:15:56.380by 1%, the Greens have fallen by 2%, probably being an over-poll from last time, and the PPC
00:16:02.900is down by 1%. Now, obviously, there's probably also a bit of a vote in here where there's a lot
00:16:08.640of undecided voters. That's probably what's happened a little bit here, because they've
00:16:14.100gone up by three. The NDPs dropped by one, dropped by one, dropped by two, dropped by one. But if
00:16:18.900you look at the conservatives, they have stayed the same. And I think it's because what the trade
00:16:25.400war does, so this is the two different takes. Innovative research shows that a lot of people
00:16:29.020on the left are getting annoyed with Mark Carney. And you could even say from an elbows-up
00:16:33.240perspective, yes, he stands up to Trump, but he's actually fairly weak in terms of the response.0.98
00:16:38.780He's very kind of sluggish and cowardly when it comes to actually fighting back with0.97
00:16:44.080retaliatory tariffs. It took him like a week of pressure to say he was going to go forward with0.93
00:16:47.800retaliatory tariffs from previously he was putting off for weeks. Now, it's not my approach, but I'm
00:16:52.380just saying from a leftist's perspective, they may say, I don't hate him, but I wish he would
00:16:56.860be more aggressive like Avi Lewis or Elizabeth May or Yves-Francois Blanchet are being. And so
00:17:03.460the innovative research poll showed the liberals going down three and it going over to the left.
00:17:08.480This poll shows the liberals going up three and taking away from the left. So maybe that they want the warm embrace of Mark Carney right now because of how scared they are of Donald Trump. So they're willing to not vote for the other parties that they perform more for Carney.
00:17:24.840The problem is you can't exactly pull this trick off multiple times. You can't exactly just do this whenever you want to pull bump. It gets old. And also you can't exactly organize reality to always coincide with a big pull bump before by-elections.
00:17:40.520Now, maybe that's what Carney's doing right now. He wanted to boost his support in the by-elections to not make it look like he's bleeding off to the left, or it's just, you know, good timing or whatever. But I think that probably the truth is somewhere in the middle, that although Carney benefits on the surface from fighting with Trump, I think that innovative research is picking up on something by having a stronger mix of business liberals in their sample.
00:18:05.200that business liberals while they don't dislike Mark Carney they don't hate him they would still
00:18:09.860say they approve of him if they asked if you asked them they're less inclined to show up and vote and
00:18:15.180they kind of are getting a little bit tired of it yes the left wing increased in that poll and
00:18:19.860you're saying well how are they business liberals of the NDP and the block and the greens are
00:18:23.540increasing well that's not really the point the point is that a lot of these people are probably
00:18:27.720undecided and so of the decided mix of voters the NDP block and greens and other people are
00:18:34.320are basically benefiting, while Liberal votes are becoming less sure if they'd actually show up,
00:18:39.280considering that Carney's not delivering the bacon here. Anyways, so that is, so this is
00:18:45.620basically to say for the Conservatives, before I erase and go to the by-election polls,
00:18:49.520the Conservatives have a floor, and I think the floor is around 35-36% of the vote.
00:18:55.540Now, I say this all the time, Polyev and the Conservatives need to be not sluggish. And no,
00:19:00.960I'm going to say here, Polyev has to not be sluggish because at the end of the day, he's the
00:19:05.860leader. And if he sets a direction, that's the direction the party will go in. He has a lot of
00:19:10.400support from the base. Now, what he needs to do is rip the bandage off. Who cares if the liberals
00:19:15.340are going to steal one of your policies? By the way, if the liberals are ever stealing a policy
00:19:19.460that you announce, it's because your policy is too small. What you want to do is you want to run
00:19:24.220really hard on a big tax cut, on a big cultural issue, on a deeper immigration cut, on like
00:19:30.940you know better criminal justice policy better drug policy that's what you need right now because
00:19:36.940i think what's happening with a conservative vote is that they're not being swayed anymore to the
00:19:41.180liberals it's simply that if the conservatives are at this point i think it's because there's
00:19:45.300some voters checking out they you know politics feels kind of like we're in a stasis period and
00:19:50.880the liberals have all the momentum because it's being media manufactured and manufactured by
00:19:55.900trump fights so what the conservatives need to do is that you need to gain yourself give yourself
00:20:00.720momentum. You can't just wait for the news cycle to do it because that momentum is temporary.
00:20:05.620Permanent momentum is based off an exciting platform. So if you want to overcome these 35,
00:20:11.36036% ratings, you need to draw from the non-voter pool, which is still 35% at least of the electorate
00:20:19.380in Canada. Maybe 15% of those people will never vote ever. But there's a significant portion,
00:20:24.420especially working class voters, who will only show up if it's exciting, if it's big,
00:20:29.440And it's not something that takes an hour to explain. And it's not because other voters are so intellectual and some of these working class non-voters are not intellectual. It's because, frankly, they value their time and they're not going to wait for you to explain over an hour period why getting rid of all these small boutique tax credits are going to give them $800 back on their taxes at the end of the year.
00:20:52.160Who cares? Give them something big enough that they actually will care, because these people have the perspective of, I'm not going to engage in politics.
00:20:59.840I'm going to put my head down and just work harder, and that's how I can overcome bad regulations and tax policies.
00:21:05.020I'll just work a little harder to overcome it. You have to give them a reason to say that politics is actually worth getting involved in and turning out for.
00:21:12.900Anyway, so now we will be erasing the whiteboard and then coming back with the by-election numbers that we ended up running with PoliWave for Chikotimi-Lefjord, North Vancouver-Capilano, and Beaches-East York.
00:21:28.860Okay, we are back, and now I'm just going to run through what the numbers are in each of these by-elections and then talk about why we are seeing this and kind of what the upside is when it comes to conservative politics.
00:21:41.620Now, Chico Timilafior, you will know that that was previously the riding of Richard Martel
00:21:46.120until he stepped down to get a Senate appointment from Mark Carney, which I think should be illegal.
00:21:52.020I think it should be illegal to give out Senate appointments to currently sitting MPs.
00:21:56.220You should have to resign your seat, wait a year, and then you can take a Senate appointment
00:22:00.580because that's wild that you can do something like that.
00:22:03.560But Richard Martel, he was quite popular locally.
00:22:06.900you know, he's one of those guys who actually adds quite a bit of support to your ballot in
00:22:11.680that area, simply because he's a big personality. A lot of people locally quite like him. And
00:22:17.040without him, naturally, it was going to be a disaster for the Conservatives. So I can tell
00:22:20.640you definitively, Conservatives are not winning back Chicoutimi Le Fjord. Before Richard Martel,
00:22:25.840it was never really a Conservative riding. So it's one of those things you kind of get to have
00:22:30.740while he's around. And as soon as he leaves, you don't have it anymore. Plus, this is a factor in
00:22:35.700pretty much every by-election, you have to have a really good reason to be having the by-election
00:22:39.780or your own supporters are less likely to show up because they feel slightly insulted and jerked
00:22:44.920around by you basically telling them to go vote again to try and get the exact same party in.
00:22:51.220But right now in Chikatimi-Le Fjord, and remember, these are by-election projections. We have
00:22:55.660large samples. All the samples here are like above 480. I believe in North Vancouver is like 448.
00:23:02.720Chiquitimi is 536 and Beaches East York is a little lower, just higher immigrant population, a bit of a lower response rate from people in the area. But Chiquitimi had Liberals at 39.9 right now. The Bloc Quebecois are now at 35.1.
00:23:24.320and the conservatives which are really frankly the only other party worth talking about here
00:23:31.440are at 15.4 i can just say maybe i'll write them down because they're high enough to talk about
00:23:40.240uh the the uh mdp is also at 6.1 here but the conservatives had won this riding last election
00:23:49.560with 32% of the vote, very tight, with the Bloc and the Liberals both getting 30%. So by having
00:23:57.460Richard Martel drop out, basically, Conservative vote bottomed out, and now it's kind of picking
00:24:02.800between Liberals and Bloc. Now, the Liberals are ahead, but I suspect, I would actually,
00:24:08.620to make a prediction, it's not 100% prediction, I think the Bloc are going to win this riding,
00:24:14.640because if you look at leaners, if you look at undecided voters choosing who they're going to
00:24:19.180go vote for, there's a high probability of a lot of late deciders going towards the Bloc Quebecois
00:24:25.260and probably a lot of conservative voters in the riding going block to block the Liberals.
00:24:31.060Also, right now, the dynamic of that race is very much, who do you trust more on trade and
00:24:36.660the economy and all these things? It's not about the party leaders federally. It's about
00:24:41.420the provincial government in Quebec or the federal government in Ottawa. And so I think that
00:24:48.660with the referendum in that writing kind of being, who do you like better, Quebec Provincial or
00:24:58.840And this whole thing was done before the pullout of the deal. This poll was conducted like a day
00:25:05.140or two before he pulled out. I suspect in Quebec, despite being a very left-ish province,
00:25:13.260and when I say left-ish, I mean that, yes, the Liberals do quite well, but the Bloc does well,
00:25:18.260And they're kind of a left-ish party on certain issues. They're more conservative on certain issues. They're to the left of the liberals. But with the province, even though it's more left-ish, because of the manufacturing industry, because of the aluminum sector in the area, I wonder how many people are going to be ticked off that Carney keeps basically molesting around in the dark, roping around in the dark, doing nothing, not getting a good deal done while people are hemorrhaging jobs, specifically in regions like this, that they're going to say, I don't care.
00:25:48.260He's screwing it up. I'm going for the Bloc Quebecois, which are not exactly not elbows up, but they are kind of the, you know, more Quebec focused, the more Quebec centric party, obviously, saying that Carney is letting Quebec down in all these talks.
00:26:03.600And so that's why you need the Bloc to represent you. You need to fight back against the liberals who are pulling us around by the nose and telling them to accept constant failures.
00:26:12.580But now let's go to Beaches East York. In Beaches East York, this is one where obviously the Liberals are going to run away with the vote here. They're at 55% of the vote in Beaches East York. Now this is a Toronto proper riding, so none of this should shock you.
00:26:29.420We had the NDP at 20.7. The Liberals were exactly at 55. The Conservative is at 20.6.
00:26:42.120And the Greens are sitting at, we'll include always four parties, I guess, 2.6.
00:26:48.780Now, I actually think because of the way that these polls are conducted, IVR comes into play.
00:26:54.740ivr the way we did this to get large samples is that you basically blast a call to thousands of
00:27:00.580people in the riding and it's one of those robo calls where it says hey if you select you know
00:27:05.220select this option for this party blah blah blah blah blah and so i think that what you're going
00:27:11.060to end up having is like a lot of liberal leaners in these votes ivr tends to have a bit of a four
00:27:17.140point liberal lean that's also why i think in in uh in chicotini the liberals are more at risk of
00:27:23.220losing because they tend to be benefited by this polling style a little bit. Full disclosure on
00:27:27.960that. But if you actually know Beaches East York, this is actually a significant downgrade for the
00:27:34.280Liberals. I'll just write it below. If this is right, and I think that the Liberals will actually
00:27:38.460underperform 55%, even if they get 55, that's down 12.6% since the last election, with the NDP
00:27:47.900going up 13.8%. Now, the Conservatives are only down by like 3.1, but again, IVR also notoriously
00:27:56.820is not good at polling the Conservative Party. It's not terrible. It's more so that you just
00:28:02.940have to make that little change in your head. Liberals might be over-polled by two to four
00:28:06.780points. Conservatives might be under-polled by two to four points. Greens here are actually up by,
00:28:13.420by, I was using pluses, I got to keep it stable. They're actually up by 1.3% if they get 2.6%.
00:28:22.440And you could say, well, who cares about that? They're not going to win. The problem here for
00:28:26.380the Liberals is the bleed, the bleed to the left. Eglinton Lawrence is a riding that the
00:28:32.940Conservatives came within like 500 votes of winning. That's pretty near, that's around the
00:28:38.380North York area, other ridings in Brampton and Mississauga and the Vancouver area, you know,
00:28:45.120Kelowna. I know some of these ridings are much further away from each other. I'm just saying
00:28:48.700that like if this trend holds up nationally, that the liberals are losing a significant portion of
00:28:53.940their vote to the left, that's going to be a problem in all the close ridings. So the liberals
00:28:59.320might be up a little bit nationally, but that's already in kind of some home term. But when you
00:29:04.700actually poll locally, you get a more accurate result here. Now, it's going to be a disproportionate
00:29:10.400change because probably a lot more people feel comfortable changing to the NDP, knowing a left
00:29:14.840wing party is probably going to win anyways in Beaches, East York. But still, if this effect is
00:29:19.540even a quarter of what it is in Beaches, East York, and somewhere like Eglinton, Lawrence,
00:29:24.120the Liberals would lose if we did another election. Now, North Vancouver, Capilano here,
00:29:29.860this one's very interesting. And I actually want to show you two sets of numbers. We have
00:29:34.140the current set that we had, and then I want to show you the kind of IVR adjusted one that we also
00:29:39.980did, that shows a much tighter race. But even then still, the Liberals are quite down in North
00:29:46.020Vancouver Capilano. This was Jonathan Wilkinson's riding, and they're replacing him with one of
00:29:50.780Mark Carney's deputy chiefs of staff, Brandon Cayley. He is currently at, the Liberals are
00:29:57.240leading in our top line numbers, 46.8. And this is actually including leaners for the Liberals,
00:30:03.420which I don't quite agree with. Shreya Teese made the decision. I understand why he did it.0.73
00:30:08.100He's playing it safe, and he should, rightfully so. This is our first scientific poll that we're
00:30:13.880running. Conservatives were at 30.3. NDP are at 11.9. They only got 4% of the vote here last
00:30:23.440election. And then the Greens are actually doing pretty well as well at 10.8%, which is not
00:30:31.900unprecedented. This is a riding that they used to before 25 and 21 would get double digit support
00:30:38.200here. The PPC were also pulled at 0.2, so you can understand why I'm not including them.
00:30:43.180Now, I want to go over to the projections my friend ended up doing from Northern Watcher,
00:30:49.180who's also on the team for these polls. He did a more IVR adjusted poll. And now the conservatives
00:30:54.860are not leading in the poll. I don't think the conservatives can win this riding. It's like a
00:30:59.7201% chance they would win it. That doesn't mean if you're on the ground, oh,
00:31:03.500don't even bother volunteering. Don't bother voting. Vote. We are in attritional combat with
00:31:09.940the Liberals. We want to show that the Conservatives are gaining on them while the Liberals are
00:31:13.960bleeding out support on the left. It helps set national trends for these things to be seen by
00:31:19.600people. But Northern Watcher shows, based on an IVR adjustment, as well as putting far less weight
00:31:25.280on the leaners because leaners in a by-election don't matter as much because they're very unlikely
00:31:30.080to vote. It's a by-election. Very few people vote in by-elections. But of decided voters
00:31:34.960with an IVR correction, because IVR again notoriously overpulls liberals, liberals would
00:31:40.900be at 43% of the vote, 44.3. So we're not doing like a giant adjustment downwards.
00:31:46.940Conservatives would be at 34% of the vote on the dot, which would be a little bit better than they
00:31:53.460did last election. The Greens would actually outpace the NDP, which I actually believe might
00:31:59.860happen. They have a much better candidate. They started earlier, and it's just a riding where I
00:32:04.900think the pipeline issue in this very luxury voter type area, on the left at least, is going to
00:32:10.180benefit them. And the NDP would be down at 10. It's not a dramatic shift. It's just a slight one here.
00:32:15.840But this would only be, as you can see, a 10-point lead for the Liberals. Guys, countrymen,
00:32:22.720Do you know how much of a shift this is since last election? The Conservatives got, I believe in this election last time, they got 59% of the vote. If they go down to 46 or 44, that is a seismic shift in how the next election is going to be run.
00:32:41.180If people go back on the left to traditional voting patterns, North Vancouver, Capilano, and places like Beaches, East York, although the Liberals win them, is a bit of a canary in the coal mine that unless Mark Carney can manufacture the most tantalizing elbows up election narrative, you're going to have a lot of people no longer lending him their vote to simply keep the mega conservatives out simply to fight back against the evil President Donald Trump.
00:33:10.060You're going to have these look like safer seats for the liberals, no longer 59% in North Vancouver, Capilano, or 67% in somewhere like Beaches, East York.
00:33:23.080You're going to have Eglinton Lawrence not being a variety where when the conservatives go door knocking, people are saying, I can't vote for pure poly because I need to stand up to Trump with Mark Carney.
00:33:31.800You're going to have people saying, well, yeah, Mark Carney, like economy kind of sucks under him.
00:33:36.200You know, I'm not showing up and voting or I'm going to go back to voting NDP.
00:33:39.560because he wasn't as progressive as I thought, or he's not as elbows up as I thought, or I'm
00:33:44.300getting annoyed with the elbows up stuff because the economy's failing and he won't stop it.
00:33:48.500There's a lot of factors going on here. I'm never going to predict like there's going to be a
00:33:52.340collapse for Mark Carney one day. I think what you're going to see is over the next year,
00:33:57.720a subtle slump, a subtle tiredness with Mark Carney going on that if we don't have a deal in
00:34:03.980a year, hey, what the heck did we vote you in for? Or maybe there is eventually a deal and it still
00:34:10.700underperforms what the elbows up people want because that's why he can't sign a deal. The
00:34:14.380elbows up people would rather burn Canada down just to annoy the Americans. They don't care about1.00
00:34:20.660the economy. They don't care about your family. If you keep your job, if you're able to feed
00:34:25.720yourselves or pay for the heat, they don't care. They are a bunch of consultants, a bunch of
00:34:31.380government employees, white collar HR workers make up a lot of the elbows up base, and they
00:34:37.300couldn't care less what happens to you. They just want to make Trump grumpy. That is all they care
00:34:43.720about. And I think you're going to have an exodus slowly of the business liberal side of the liberal
00:34:49.360party, maybe not even to the conservatives, but just out of the liberal party, because come on,0.83
00:34:55.080guys, the economy sucks. Can we get something signed? And those people are going to look at
00:34:58.840those people and say, shut up, shut up. Don't you understand? We need to go elbows up against0.99
00:35:02.800the liberals. Do you want Trump to win? Guys, Trump is winning. He has a better economy than
00:35:08.620us. His economy actually grows properly. You can say, oh, we had 0.8% growth in the second quarter,
00:35:13.720which is good growth. But it's all based on higher oil and natural gas prices. It's all
00:35:18.980based on the fact that we generated a bunch of artificial income from the World Cup, from the
00:35:24.340census having a bunch of money spent on it. This is not natural growth that's going to keep
00:35:28.820A lot of these are temporary jobs that are heating up the economy and it's going to cool down. Maybe we keep some of that growth. It's just not as good as people think. And that's not going to be very impressive to the business liberals saying, hey, the economy is arguably worse than under Justin Trudeau, even at the very end. Why do I vote for you? And that's what I think we're going to see with Mark Carney.
00:35:51.120So if you're still in one of these ridings and you're watching this video and deciding if you want to vote, go out and vote in these ridings.
00:35:56.200Vote for the Conservatives. If you're in Lefjord, vote block. Vote block just to block Mark Carney.
00:36:02.740Fair enough. That's a perfectly fine way of voting out there.
00:36:05.180Beaches, East York, North Vancouver, Capilano, vote Conservative.
00:36:08.320And by the way, Jim Cyrus, I believe, is the name of the candidate for the Conservatives in Beaches, East York.
00:36:14.620And of course, it's Stephen Kern in North Vancouver, Capilano. Good job to them.
00:36:19.440Now, I'm not blaming the conservative guy in Chikatimila-Fjord. He was an uphill battle. I think he was given an impossible task in that riding to try and hold up the conservative vote. This isn't a slag about him. I'm not leaving him out of this for any personal reason or trying to say that he did a bad job. I think he's probably doing as good a job as he probably could out there.
00:36:37.520But in these two ridings, I have to hand it to the conservative candidates. They have done a very good job putting on very good-looking campaigns. I've even talked to the North Vancouver Capilano team. James Knight, the campaign manager, has been doing an excellent job. Curran, as the candidate, has been doing an excellent job. He was the same guy who ran in 2025.
00:36:56.860They have more lawn signs out on lawns than they did in the 25 election. They have been hitting doors every day with large teams. They are putting in a good job. And if they win and they have like a, I've seen projections a 3% chance of winning, you know, lifetime achievement award to conservatism. Those guys are amazing. But even if they don't win, they have made sure to hold up the conservative tent in that area while the liberals are bleeding.
00:37:22.880And what the Conservatives want to do right now, other than what I keep telling them to do to run on bolder policies, but they want to look stable while Carney starts bleeding off to the left to maintain Conservative confidence in taking a harder charge in places like North Vancouver and its swing ridings around the country next general election.
00:37:41.800Anyways, so with all that being said, thank you guys for watching this episode.
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