The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Carney should be scared after Shocking Newfoundland election results!

00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. We will be on the whiteboard in just a bit in this video

00:00:05.720 because we need to talk about the crazy result of the Newfoundland and Labrador provincial election.

00:00:11.900 But I just want to start this video out by saying that oftentimes provincial politics,

00:00:17.180 like state politics in the U.S., can indicate to us the direction that federal politics is going in.

00:00:23.440 And based on what just happened in Newfoundland, Mark Carney and his liberal government

00:00:28.300 should be kept up at night because they do not have any policy wins on the federal level.

00:00:34.020 And we've just seen on the provincial level that a seemingly popular premier in a province

00:00:39.120 where all the pollsters were pretty much saying the liberals were going to win another majority

00:00:42.880 government is not an actual guaranteed win. There is now Premier Tony Wakeham in Newfoundland

00:00:50.240 and a big PC majority government. So I want to pull out the whiteboard in just a second here

00:00:56.220 to show you how big the polling miss was with the vast majority of pollsters.

00:01:01.500 Now, some of them were actually in the neighborhood of Correct. I think it was like MQH that showed the

00:01:07.340 liberals would maybe win the popular vote by three points and the PCs ended up winning it by one.

00:01:12.380 That's a perfectly fine polling miss because it's a small province and it's often harder

00:01:17.060 to actually get accurate polling for a smaller area. It's easy to get good national polls or a big,

00:01:23.000 good provincial poll in Ontario. Once you start going down to areas where there's less than a

00:01:28.260 million people, there's only around 300,000 voters in Newfoundland and Labrador, you can have a much

00:01:34.380 bigger margin of error. But with some of these pollsters, like they need to fix their methodology

00:01:39.280 for trying to reach out to provinces like this. And then I want to take you guys through what the

00:01:43.500 federal numbers were, because this is a complete reversal of what we saw in the last federal election.

00:01:49.720 And if anything, Carney winning the federal election, if he was doing a good job, should have

00:01:55.300 helped buoy up the Liberal Party in Newfoundland and they should have been able to easily cruise

00:02:00.740 to an election victory. Despite the fact the federal conservatives picked up a couple seats

00:02:05.480 in Newfoundland, they still ended up losing most of the seats to liberals. There's seven federal seats,

00:02:11.240 conservatives grabbed three, going up from one to three, and the liberals still won four.

00:02:17.020 So, if anything, if elbows up and all that stuff was really working on people, and there was a new

00:02:23.480 kind of renaissance for the Liberal Party, this should have been a walkover. Especially because

00:02:28.340 John Hogan, apparently according to Angus Reid, and I think they're a good pollster, had a 51%

00:02:34.180 approval rating. Which again, could scare Mark Carney, because he has an okay approval rating. But this

00:02:40.860 is demonstrating people thinking you're a good guy doesn't mean they want your crappy policies.

00:02:46.200 But now, let's ghetto poll this whiteboard over here so we can talk about what happened in

00:02:54.160 Newfoundland. I'll just put right NFL for Newfoundland to keep it simple for you guys, because you don't

00:02:59.780 want to see me writing down Newfoundland and Labrador on both sides of the board. But we're going

00:03:06.740 to have NFL polls. This is going to be the polls one. And then reality over here.

00:03:17.200 I know some people say that, well, this shows you can't trust pollsters. Again, there was a pollster

00:03:23.460 who actually did a good job here. It demonstrates that some pollsters have a heavy, heavy urban bias.

00:03:28.880 Because when I look at Main Street missing this thing by 20 points, it's probably more so that they

00:03:34.840 just really weren't caring enough, that they were getting way too many people in Cape Breton and way

00:03:39.400 too many people in St. John's answering their polls, and not enough people in those small fishing

00:03:45.180 villages, which were the reason why Polyev, even though they lost seats in Nova Scotia, ended up picking

00:03:50.800 up seats in Newfoundland. They spoke to the fishermen in these small villages who care about how bad the

00:03:57.280 fishing quotas have been, and they actually want to bring back the seal hunt. They promised those

00:04:01.540 things, and they won those seats. Which is now why I now like to call it Bluefoundland, because the

00:04:08.060 majority of the Newfoundland part of it is blue now on a federal level. And on a provincial level,

00:04:13.980 it's very, very blue. So let's look at what all the pollsters generally said. And I'm not trying to

00:04:20.180 roast everyone and be like, oh, what an idiot. They couldn't get this thing right. But, you know, 1.00

00:04:24.700 I'm going to do a little bit of that, at least. But here, let's go through. We have Forum. We have Main

00:04:31.140 Street. Just write down Main. We had Cardinal. And we had MQO. It's not MQH. Sorry, guys. MQO.

00:04:48.920 So this is the leads that they showed for each of the parties. Forum assumed the Liberals were going

00:04:57.340 to win the popular vote in Newfoundland by 10 points. Main Street thought that they were the

00:05:04.420 Liberals, the provincial Liberals, and John Hogan were going to win it by 20 points. Cardinal,

00:05:10.560 not too bad, set 8 points. And MQO thought the Liberals were going to win by 3%. And remember,

00:05:20.540 this is in a province where John Hogan has an approval rating of literally 51%. So this is not a

00:05:33.260 disliked guy. He was, in fact, the fourth post-liked premier in the country. Now, he was only the

00:05:39.840 premier since May since he had to take over for Andrew Fury. But Andrew Fury was pretty popular.

00:05:45.180 And of course, he was backing up John Hogan. And he still lost. So let's go over to reality. And I

00:05:52.740 will write down what each of the parties got. Because this was not great. So overall, the reality

00:05:59.860 of the election. So let's just write down result here. Or just let's just go down for the full results.

00:06:06.260 So with the full results, the PC party got 44.4% of the vote. The Liberals ended up getting 43.4%. So it is

00:06:22.220 a 1% victory on the national poll for the overall provincial numbers for the PCs. And the NDP

00:06:30.600 ended up getting 8.3%. Now, I will tell you, it's not like these other pollsters just had way too many

00:06:41.160 NDP people saying they're going to vote Liberal, but then they ended up voting NDP. In fact, pretty

00:06:47.160 much all the pollsters over here were indicating a way higher NDP vote than they actually got. I think

00:06:53.180 Main Street said that they were going to get 12. Other ones said that they were going to get 13 or 10.

00:06:57.500 And they only got 8.3%. This is what you call a too strong urban bias. But let's give a lot of

00:07:05.220 credit to MQO. Because plus 3% in their poll, when you actually put it into a model, kind of trying to

00:07:13.280 predict how many seats each one would win, they actually assumed that because there's a high

00:07:19.600 concentration of Liberal vote in St. John's, where it doesn't really matter if you win a seat by 60%,

00:07:25.380 it's still just one seat. That plus 3% still indicated the PCs were going to win a minority.

00:07:30.640 So we can actually give a win here to MQO. They did a very good job in this election.

00:07:37.260 And so the seat counts that we've actually generated out of this election are we got 21 for the PCs,

00:07:44.180 we have 15 for the Liberals, and then you have two for the NDP. And then there was also

00:07:50.940 some independents that also actually got two seats. And I believe they tend to be more

00:07:56.560 conservative leading independents. So overall, great news for people in Newfoundland. I knew that

00:08:03.240 the Liberal government out there was not nearly as bad as many other Liberal governments because

00:08:07.320 it's Newfoundland and it's like the second oil and gas province that you had to be somewhat pro-oil

00:08:12.160 and gas. And I'm not going to get into the internal issues of why the polls went this way.

00:08:17.420 It's probably a little voter fatigue. They don't really like the Liberals having been there so long.

00:08:22.320 They weren't great when it came to fiscal management in a lot of ways, which is sad because I thought

00:08:26.620 Blaine Higgs did a great job when he was New Brunswick Premier. I think that I ran a really

00:08:32.700 lackluster campaign because he was able to have surpluses in New Brunswick for three years in a

00:08:37.120 row, which is like impossible in Atlantic Canada because the culture and people who live out there can

00:08:42.380 probably agree with me, that there are a lot of people who just don't really consider fiscal

00:08:46.760 responsibility as a high priority because, you know, it's an equalization region. So actually

00:08:51.880 being fiscally responsible may actually lower your transfers from out west. But anyways, yeah,

00:08:58.740 this was pretty bad. But let's just show you, I'll just show you maybe right here, we'll just kind

00:09:04.320 of highlight it over here, what the federal results looked like. So federally, in Newfoundland and

00:09:10.820 Labrador, do you know what the Liberals got federally out here? They had gotten 54% and the

00:09:20.540 Conservatives, not doing too bad, but not fantastic, had gotten 39%. So yeah, this is a bit of a

00:09:30.080 turnaround, having the Liberals on a provincial level fall 11 points and the Conservatives gaining

00:09:35.600 five and a half points in the polls. This means if you actually had a new federal election,

00:09:41.580 Conservatives may actually be able to pick up one more seat here. And if this is indicative of

00:09:46.620 anything across the rest of Atlantic Canada, you are going to have the Liberals potentially lose six

00:09:51.680 or seven seats in an area where they usually want to be running up the score. And now I want to take

00:09:58.000 you guys, we can now just kind of shuffle this out of the way. Look at my super high budget,

00:10:03.860 everyone, I don't even have someone who can carry that away from for me. I want to talk to you guys

00:10:08.680 about just social media a little bit and what the Liberals are currently doing because what they post 0.90

00:10:15.040 on social media, you're watching me have to adjust my camera because I'm stupid and I don't do it for 0.92

00:10:19.360 these videos. What you post on social media is like your best foot forward your current if there was 0.91

00:10:25.280 an election going on, what argument you'd be making to voters. And saying that what the Liberals are

00:10:31.480 doing is bland is an understatement. I think that food in prisons must be more flavorful than the

00:10:38.060 sorts of things that the Liberals are putting out. It's like they've never left the election campaign.

00:10:43.580 They're not announcing anything very big. They're announcing a lot of pie in the sky nonsense where

00:10:48.520 they're just saying they might do something. But this is the latest video they just put out today

00:10:53.100 after their provincial allies got walloped. And at the same time that Pierre Polyev is actually on

00:10:59.040 an upswing right now going after the TFW program and a lot of other bad liberal programs like the

00:11:06.360 gun buyback, which it's being rumored is going to be shut down very soon because of just how badly

00:11:11.720 the rollout is in Cape Breton. Nobody's going to sell their gun back to the government and the

00:11:16.900 government knows it and the government knows that it would look optically bad if they started forcing

00:11:20.920 people to do it. But here's what the Liberals are posting right now.

00:11:24.860 After a year in which Canadians have faced an increasingly dangerous and divided world and

00:11:30.980 the shock of a trade war that's causing big economic uncertainty. You know, these aren't

00:11:36.720 just changes. They're not just a transition. It's a rupture. And Canadians have taken three 0.73

00:11:42.560 big lessons from this upheaval. And the first is that we have to look out for ourselves.

00:11:49.900 And that's why Canada's new government is focused on protecting our communities.

00:11:55.300 He's so boring. He was he was gifted the fact that Donald Trump kept talking about the Canadian 0.82

00:12:03.080 election during the federal election, because as an actual person, he has nothing. He has nothing to

00:12:09.020 say. Like, what the heck was this last thing he just said here? And that's what from this upheaval.

00:12:15.780 And the first is that we have to look out for ourselves.

00:12:19.660 The thing that we learned from this upheaval is that we have to look out for ourselves.

00:12:24.740 What was the second lesson that we have to not eat our own thumbs? What are you talking about?

00:12:29.960 Oh, wow. I guess our country has to be a country and not, you know, like a vassal state of another

00:12:36.100 country, like we were already that. I don't know what he's even trying to communicate here.

00:12:41.160 And that's why Canada's new government is focused on protecting our communities,

00:12:46.180 protecting our borders, protecting our country and protecting our way of life. And that's for more

00:12:53.420 RCMP and border security officers to new legislation that combats hate,

00:12:59.920 tightens the criminal code and toughens conditions on bail.

00:13:03.180 They're not even getting rid of Bill C-75. It's all complete nonsense that they're actually going to

00:13:10.700 pursue bail reform. What they're going to do is maybe give prosecutors and judges a couple more

00:13:16.760 tools to hold somebody in prison. But the general principles of Bill C-75 are still in place,

00:13:22.400 which means that if prosecutors don't bend over backwards to make a legal argument to hold someone,

00:13:26.960 they will be automatically released no matter what their criminal record is. And that is currently the

00:13:31.740 problem. Giving extra tools to prosecutors doesn't really help them because they don't really have

00:13:38.220 the time of day to be filing legal briefs on why a multiple, like a multiple, like someone who has

00:13:46.620 been involved in many strong armed robberies or assaults or in thefts needs to be held. They don't

00:13:54.340 have the time of day to be taking the few hours they have before someone gets released to quickly write

00:13:59.720 something up, throw it in front of a judge so the person's held. That's the problem. It's the same

00:14:03.840 day automatic standard is still in place. Just because prosecutors have more tools doesn't mean

00:14:08.180 they have the capacity to utilize the tools because it's been so obviously ingrained to the system that

00:14:13.620 someone's just going to be released that some people aren't even held long enough for a prosecutor

00:14:17.480 to make an argument for them to be held. And that's Bill C-75 that he won't get rid of.

00:14:21.840 It's it's maddening. Now, the second lesson I think we've taken over the past year, don't sniff glue.

00:14:30.220 I don't know. Canadians have learned that we have to focus on what we can control. And that's why I

00:14:36.600 haven't lowered taxes barely at all. In a rapidly changing world, that means building our strength

00:14:42.600 here at home. And that's why Canada's new government is moving swiftly with measures to build

00:14:48.120 one Canadian economy, millions of more homes and major projects that will connect and transform

00:14:55.500 our nation. And you see the problem here is none of this has happened. This again, going looking at

00:15:02.160 these Newfoundland numbers, looking at him falling 11 points compared to the provincial results.

00:15:07.200 This is why it should be terrifying to him because he's not done anything. He talks about doing stuff.

00:15:12.040 Of course, there's talk, but there's no actual, well, here is the new thing that we've just

00:15:17.980 done. That's going to make your life better. Here's another policy release they put out

00:15:22.860 yesterday. And it's along the same lines of just tablum. Liberals last week, Mark Carney announced

00:15:28.680 three key measures from our upcoming budget to empower Canadians with lower costs and new

00:15:33.460 opportunities to help you get ahead, lower costs and protecting essential programs for Canadians.

00:15:38.680 Here's one launching automatic federal benefits. Stupid. I don't want people to get automatic federal 1.00

00:15:44.180 benefits. If people don't qualify and they don't fill out the forms, you don't get them. I am sorry.

00:15:49.560 Yes, we can have accessibility kind of measures in order for people who it's difficult to actually,

00:15:54.880 you know, be able to do all the filing and whatnot to be able to get them. Yes. If you're disabled, 0.98

00:15:59.340 maybe we can do so. The problem is we have too much of a welfare culture and this is going to make

00:16:04.580 it worse because he's saying, oh, people aren't getting access. I saw another press conference where he's

00:16:08.880 like people aren't being able to fully access all the benefits they're entitled to. And so we're

00:16:13.880 going to make it so that people are basically like the government shoves it towards you and says,

00:16:18.320 take these. And he's saying it's going to be hundreds of billions of more dollars over the

00:16:22.080 next several years that people are going to take out from other taxpayers because the government is

00:16:27.040 really pushing more benefits at them. This is a Trudeau style handout program that he did when he was in

00:16:33.440 political trouble, which is what Carney is in right now, which is what he's indicating to us by doing

00:16:38.540 stuff like this. The other one, making the national school food program permanent. You know, you could

00:16:44.620 just lower people's taxes significantly and they could actually pay to give their kids like a sandwich

00:16:49.820 and a banana to go to school. The problem is I hate this culture. Oh, the economy sucks and people are

00:16:55.480 struggling. Well, how about we waste even more taxpayer money, not just giving people back their own money 0.90

00:17:00.140 so they can afford it themselves. But how about we start a bloated program to give people to do the 0.70

00:17:05.400 food ourselves, like to do the food for them? Like, no, you guys don't seem to have a very high

00:17:11.480 view of the individual. And then the last one here is renewing the Canadian strong pass and a strong

00:17:17.560 pass. I don't even know what that is. Is that some like travel thing? Like, let's have some sort of

00:17:23.400 Canada parks pass where you can go to every Canadian park if you pay a certain amount of money. I have no

00:17:28.680 clue. But is this getting your goat as a voter? Are you going to be like, oh, wow, better reelect these

00:17:35.740 guys. And now we have Gregor Robertson, the awful former mayor of Vancouver, who is now our awful

00:17:42.680 housing minister, trying to get people excited with our new housing program. Look, Canada's new

00:17:49.000 government is taking bold action to fix the housing crisis. I guess if they keep saying bold, then I'm

00:17:54.460 going to think they're bold. That's how that's how life works, right? The housing design catalog features

00:18:00.560 ready to build designs that will streamline home building by cutting red tapes, speeding up approvals

00:18:05.460 and lowering costs. With these practical tools in builders hands, we're making it faster and more

00:18:10.360 affordable to build the homes Canadians need so that everyone has a place to call home. You know, I feel

00:18:16.680 like if you actually look through the housing catalog, one, you're going to get a lot of free 0.94

00:18:20.460 fab garbage. But also, I feel like if you dig down enough, the companies that that seek to benefit

00:18:27.600 the most from basically a standardized catalog of home designs is probably going to be some sort of

00:18:33.040 a liberal ally. Now, I can't prove that. But I feel like eventually I'm going to see something from

00:18:37.920 Blacklock's reporter or Moose on the Loose basically showing, oh, yeah, this is owned by Brookfield that does

00:18:43.680 this specific type of home that the liberals are incentivizing everyone to build. What do I know?

00:18:49.580 But yeah, it's it's not been fantastic. And again, none of this stuff is going to actually

00:18:54.820 encourage Canadians to vote liberal again. This is just stuff. It's just the type of stuff that

00:19:01.080 Trudeau was announcing in his last couple of years because, you know, he's lost momentum. And

00:19:04.980 well, let's start a food program. Let's start a dental program. And maybe people all vote for us.

00:19:09.720 I just went to the dentist the other day. I hate the dental universal dental program to the point I just

00:19:14.860 pay out of pocket because who cares at this point? And now I do like this post. I want to finish on

00:19:20.760 this post by Pierre Polyev because it's kind of a sequel to one of my other favorite Polyev

00:19:26.100 Twitter posts that he's ever made, which he's right about. He calls Nazi socialists because 0.98

00:19:31.860 they are socialists. Nazis are not right wing. They're not at all. But Polyev here actually responding 0.89

00:19:38.300 to a post from his wife says, Nazi socialism, Soviet socialism, narco socialism, and all other

00:19:45.940 forms of socialism move at different speeds, but always to the same destination. Impoverished hell

00:19:52.080 for the many and special powers and wealth for the few. Only freedom, free speech, free enterprise,

00:19:57.040 and free choice empowers all to fulfill their potential and live a good life, live good and

00:20:02.240 great lives. Now this triggered so many people on the left, especially David Moskrope, who is just a

00:20:10.040 full-on socialist. He writes for, what was it? It's just some pathetic left-wing newspaper. But he was

00:20:17.860 saying, oh my goodness, Polyev and others saying that Nazis are socialists are spreading Nazi

00:20:22.700 propaganda because the Nazis wanted people to think they're socialists. As if the socialism part was

00:20:28.560 what made them cuddly or something, no. Nazis are in fact socialists. People will do this stupid

00:20:36.600 game where they're like, well, they weren't the Soviets, and they weren't the communists, so they 1.00

00:20:41.500 can't be socialists. Soviet communists, Maoists in China, fascists in Italy, the Nazis in Germany,

00:20:51.040 the Peronists in Argentina. They are all socialists because socialism is societal or more like state 0.53

00:21:00.680 control of the economy. You think there are a lot of fancy Dans and other free individuals around Nazi 0.98

00:21:07.760 Germany opening up shops, selling whatever they want, and having any deal with their workers they 0.65

00:21:12.200 wanted? No. Everything was extremely controlled. In fact, one of the first things the Nazis did when they 0.79

00:21:19.180 got into power was remove property rights from the Constitution, which allowed them to do such

00:21:24.080 things as remove business ownership from anyone who didn't want to follow their plans to completely

00:21:29.320 depriving Jewish people of all their property. That's how they did all that, because they don't 1.00

00:21:33.680 in fact like property rights at all. They don't like capitalism because they're anti-Semitic and they 0.99

00:21:39.000 considered capitalism to be Jewish. But for some reason, you get all these mouth breathers on the left 0.84

00:21:43.620 who don't like the fact that their ideology ends in some death and destruction, trying to separate

00:21:49.060 themselves from it. Every once in a while, you'll get an idiot out there. And I'm just being as blunt 1.00

00:21:54.040 as possible here, because you should with these people. They'll be like, well, the Nazis were right 1.00

00:21:58.920 wing because they're racist. It's like Pol Pot was extremely racist. You think the Chinese government 0.96

00:22:04.780 is super tolerant? You think that the Soviet Union was super tolerant? You know, they pretended at times.

00:22:11.780 Not really. Being racist is not a left or right thing. It's just a thing. Pol Pot's people killed

00:22:18.860 anyone who wore glasses and would go after anyone for being Vietnamese. You think that that made the 1.00

00:22:24.140 Cambodian Khmer Rouge right wing? My goodness, these people are dull as a doornail. They'll call Bernie 1.00

00:22:30.880 Sanders a great example of democratic socialism. At the same time, Bernie Sanders is not nearly as

00:22:36.940 socialist as the Nazi government was or the Italian fascist government was. They fully controlled the

00:22:42.520 economy. In Nazi Germany, if you wanted to build a typewriter, they would make you catalog all the 0.80

00:22:47.080 materials that you need to build it. They would make you give them over your designs. They would

00:22:51.500 make you, they would basically tell you how many workers you were going to hire and how much you were

00:22:55.560 going to pay them and what their benefits were going to be. And then how much you were allowed to sell

00:22:59.380 the thing at the end of the day because they profit capped you because they in fact did not like

00:23:03.380 profit. They knew you basically, you have to have some level of profit. And even in the Soviet Union,

00:23:09.060 people who ended up selling items still needed to keep a little bit for themselves so that they

00:23:13.360 could actually function. That does not, they are socialists. That is how a socialist economy works.

00:23:19.340 They tell you what you can do and how much of it and what you have to use to do it, both in material

00:23:24.080 and labor, and then how much you're allowed to actually profit off of it at the end of the day.

00:23:28.080 They actually in fact banned profit from the train system in Germany because Hitler didn't like

00:23:33.700 profit. And so the entire train system had to operate on a zero profit basis, which meant by

00:23:39.460 World War II, the entire train system had been very heavily worn out from having extremely low ticket

00:23:44.640 costs and having no incentive to actually reinvest into it at all. But anyways, what do I know? I'm just

00:23:51.360 a capitalist shill. That should be it for me today, guys. Hopefully you didn't mind this random rant at

00:23:56.920 the end on Nazis being in fact socialists. But it's just something that always gets under my skin,

00:24:02.880 so I like to talk about it. But with all that being said, I do want to quickly plug that if you

00:24:07.740 are in the city of Calgary, make sure to go in the description below and look at my endorsement list.

00:24:12.980 I did swap out the person I was endorsing in Ward 5 because I learned that the guy I had endorsed,

00:24:18.160 although had a good platform, is a little bit crazy. So I picked another lady who's actually very good 1.00

00:24:23.200 and is not crazy. So hopefully that will work out there. I don't suspect a lot of people who watch my

00:24:29.160 channel live in the in the northeast ward of Ward 5. But there you go. Anyways, so with all that being

00:24:37.200 said, I will see you guys all later.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - October 15, 2025

Carney should be scared after Shocking Newfoundland election results!

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