Carney should be scared after Shocking Newfoundland election results!
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Summary
In this video, Wyatt talks about the shocking result in the Newfoundland and Labrador election, and how it can have a major impact on the direction of federal politics. He also explains why the Liberals are now the Official Opposition in the province, and why the Tories are now in power.
Transcript
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Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. We will be on the whiteboard in just a bit in this video
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because we need to talk about the crazy result of the Newfoundland and Labrador provincial election.
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But I just want to start this video out by saying that oftentimes provincial politics,
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like state politics in the U.S., can indicate to us the direction that federal politics is going in.
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And based on what just happened in Newfoundland, Mark Carney and his liberal government
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should be kept up at night because they do not have any policy wins on the federal level.
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And we've just seen on the provincial level that a seemingly popular premier in a province
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where all the pollsters were pretty much saying the liberals were going to win another majority
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government is not an actual guaranteed win. There is now Premier Tony Wakeham in Newfoundland
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and a big PC majority government. So I want to pull out the whiteboard in just a second here
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to show you how big the polling miss was with the vast majority of pollsters.
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Now, some of them were actually in the neighborhood of Correct. I think it was like MQH that showed the
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liberals would maybe win the popular vote by three points and the PCs ended up winning it by one.
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That's a perfectly fine polling miss because it's a small province and it's often harder
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to actually get accurate polling for a smaller area. It's easy to get good national polls or a big,
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good provincial poll in Ontario. Once you start going down to areas where there's less than a
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million people, there's only around 300,000 voters in Newfoundland and Labrador, you can have a much
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bigger margin of error. But with some of these pollsters, like they need to fix their methodology
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for trying to reach out to provinces like this. And then I want to take you guys through what the
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federal numbers were, because this is a complete reversal of what we saw in the last federal election.
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And if anything, Carney winning the federal election, if he was doing a good job, should have
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helped buoy up the Liberal Party in Newfoundland and they should have been able to easily cruise
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to an election victory. Despite the fact the federal conservatives picked up a couple seats
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in Newfoundland, they still ended up losing most of the seats to liberals. There's seven federal seats,
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conservatives grabbed three, going up from one to three, and the liberals still won four.
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So, if anything, if elbows up and all that stuff was really working on people, and there was a new
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kind of renaissance for the Liberal Party, this should have been a walkover. Especially because
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John Hogan, apparently according to Angus Reid, and I think they're a good pollster, had a 51%
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approval rating. Which again, could scare Mark Carney, because he has an okay approval rating. But this
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is demonstrating people thinking you're a good guy doesn't mean they want your crappy policies.
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But now, let's ghetto poll this whiteboard over here so we can talk about what happened in
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Newfoundland. I'll just put right NFL for Newfoundland to keep it simple for you guys, because you don't
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want to see me writing down Newfoundland and Labrador on both sides of the board. But we're going
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to have NFL polls. This is going to be the polls one. And then reality over here.
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I know some people say that, well, this shows you can't trust pollsters. Again, there was a pollster
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who actually did a good job here. It demonstrates that some pollsters have a heavy, heavy urban bias.
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Because when I look at Main Street missing this thing by 20 points, it's probably more so that they
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just really weren't caring enough, that they were getting way too many people in Cape Breton and way
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too many people in St. John's answering their polls, and not enough people in those small fishing
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villages, which were the reason why Polyev, even though they lost seats in Nova Scotia, ended up picking
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up seats in Newfoundland. They spoke to the fishermen in these small villages who care about how bad the
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fishing quotas have been, and they actually want to bring back the seal hunt. They promised those
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things, and they won those seats. Which is now why I now like to call it Bluefoundland, because the
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majority of the Newfoundland part of it is blue now on a federal level. And on a provincial level,
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it's very, very blue. So let's look at what all the pollsters generally said. And I'm not trying to
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roast everyone and be like, oh, what an idiot. They couldn't get this thing right. But, you know,
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I'm going to do a little bit of that, at least. But here, let's go through. We have Forum. We have Main
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Street. Just write down Main. We had Cardinal. And we had MQO. It's not MQH. Sorry, guys. MQO.
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So this is the leads that they showed for each of the parties. Forum assumed the Liberals were going
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to win the popular vote in Newfoundland by 10 points. Main Street thought that they were the
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Liberals, the provincial Liberals, and John Hogan were going to win it by 20 points. Cardinal,
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not too bad, set 8 points. And MQO thought the Liberals were going to win by 3%. And remember,
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this is in a province where John Hogan has an approval rating of literally 51%. So this is not a
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disliked guy. He was, in fact, the fourth post-liked premier in the country. Now, he was only the
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premier since May since he had to take over for Andrew Fury. But Andrew Fury was pretty popular.
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And of course, he was backing up John Hogan. And he still lost. So let's go over to reality. And I
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will write down what each of the parties got. Because this was not great. So overall, the reality
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of the election. So let's just write down result here. Or just let's just go down for the full results.
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So with the full results, the PC party got 44.4% of the vote. The Liberals ended up getting 43.4%. So it is
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a 1% victory on the national poll for the overall provincial numbers for the PCs. And the NDP
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ended up getting 8.3%. Now, I will tell you, it's not like these other pollsters just had way too many
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NDP people saying they're going to vote Liberal, but then they ended up voting NDP. In fact, pretty
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much all the pollsters over here were indicating a way higher NDP vote than they actually got. I think
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Main Street said that they were going to get 12. Other ones said that they were going to get 13 or 10.
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And they only got 8.3%. This is what you call a too strong urban bias. But let's give a lot of
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credit to MQO. Because plus 3% in their poll, when you actually put it into a model, kind of trying to
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predict how many seats each one would win, they actually assumed that because there's a high
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concentration of Liberal vote in St. John's, where it doesn't really matter if you win a seat by 60%,
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it's still just one seat. That plus 3% still indicated the PCs were going to win a minority.
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So we can actually give a win here to MQO. They did a very good job in this election.
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And so the seat counts that we've actually generated out of this election are we got 21 for the PCs,
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we have 15 for the Liberals, and then you have two for the NDP. And then there was also
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some independents that also actually got two seats. And I believe they tend to be more
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conservative leading independents. So overall, great news for people in Newfoundland. I knew that
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the Liberal government out there was not nearly as bad as many other Liberal governments because
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it's Newfoundland and it's like the second oil and gas province that you had to be somewhat pro-oil
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and gas. And I'm not going to get into the internal issues of why the polls went this way.
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It's probably a little voter fatigue. They don't really like the Liberals having been there so long.
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They weren't great when it came to fiscal management in a lot of ways, which is sad because I thought
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Blaine Higgs did a great job when he was New Brunswick Premier. I think that I ran a really
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lackluster campaign because he was able to have surpluses in New Brunswick for three years in a
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row, which is like impossible in Atlantic Canada because the culture and people who live out there can
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probably agree with me, that there are a lot of people who just don't really consider fiscal
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responsibility as a high priority because, you know, it's an equalization region. So actually
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being fiscally responsible may actually lower your transfers from out west. But anyways, yeah,
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this was pretty bad. But let's just show you, I'll just show you maybe right here, we'll just kind
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of highlight it over here, what the federal results looked like. So federally, in Newfoundland and
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Labrador, do you know what the Liberals got federally out here? They had gotten 54% and the
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Conservatives, not doing too bad, but not fantastic, had gotten 39%. So yeah, this is a bit of a
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turnaround, having the Liberals on a provincial level fall 11 points and the Conservatives gaining
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five and a half points in the polls. This means if you actually had a new federal election,
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Conservatives may actually be able to pick up one more seat here. And if this is indicative of
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anything across the rest of Atlantic Canada, you are going to have the Liberals potentially lose six
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or seven seats in an area where they usually want to be running up the score. And now I want to take
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you guys, we can now just kind of shuffle this out of the way. Look at my super high budget,
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everyone, I don't even have someone who can carry that away from for me. I want to talk to you guys
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about just social media a little bit and what the Liberals are currently doing because what they post
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on social media, you're watching me have to adjust my camera because I'm stupid and I don't do it for
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these videos. What you post on social media is like your best foot forward your current if there was
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an election going on, what argument you'd be making to voters. And saying that what the Liberals are
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doing is bland is an understatement. I think that food in prisons must be more flavorful than the
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sorts of things that the Liberals are putting out. It's like they've never left the election campaign.
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They're not announcing anything very big. They're announcing a lot of pie in the sky nonsense where
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they're just saying they might do something. But this is the latest video they just put out today
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after their provincial allies got walloped. And at the same time that Pierre Polyev is actually on
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an upswing right now going after the TFW program and a lot of other bad liberal programs like the
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gun buyback, which it's being rumored is going to be shut down very soon because of just how badly
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the rollout is in Cape Breton. Nobody's going to sell their gun back to the government and the
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government knows it and the government knows that it would look optically bad if they started forcing
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people to do it. But here's what the Liberals are posting right now.
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After a year in which Canadians have faced an increasingly dangerous and divided world and
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the shock of a trade war that's causing big economic uncertainty. You know, these aren't
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just changes. They're not just a transition. It's a rupture. And Canadians have taken three
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big lessons from this upheaval. And the first is that we have to look out for ourselves.
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And that's why Canada's new government is focused on protecting our communities.
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He's so boring. He was he was gifted the fact that Donald Trump kept talking about the Canadian
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election during the federal election, because as an actual person, he has nothing. He has nothing to
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say. Like, what the heck was this last thing he just said here? And that's what from this upheaval.
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And the first is that we have to look out for ourselves.
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The thing that we learned from this upheaval is that we have to look out for ourselves.
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What was the second lesson that we have to not eat our own thumbs? What are you talking about?
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Oh, wow. I guess our country has to be a country and not, you know, like a vassal state of another
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country, like we were already that. I don't know what he's even trying to communicate here.
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And that's why Canada's new government is focused on protecting our communities,
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protecting our borders, protecting our country and protecting our way of life. And that's for more
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RCMP and border security officers to new legislation that combats hate,
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tightens the criminal code and toughens conditions on bail.
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They're not even getting rid of Bill C-75. It's all complete nonsense that they're actually going to
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pursue bail reform. What they're going to do is maybe give prosecutors and judges a couple more
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tools to hold somebody in prison. But the general principles of Bill C-75 are still in place,
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which means that if prosecutors don't bend over backwards to make a legal argument to hold someone,
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they will be automatically released no matter what their criminal record is. And that is currently the
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problem. Giving extra tools to prosecutors doesn't really help them because they don't really have
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the time of day to be filing legal briefs on why a multiple, like a multiple, like someone who has
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been involved in many strong armed robberies or assaults or in thefts needs to be held. They don't
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have the time of day to be taking the few hours they have before someone gets released to quickly write
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something up, throw it in front of a judge so the person's held. That's the problem. It's the same
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day automatic standard is still in place. Just because prosecutors have more tools doesn't mean
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they have the capacity to utilize the tools because it's been so obviously ingrained to the system that
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someone's just going to be released that some people aren't even held long enough for a prosecutor
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to make an argument for them to be held. And that's Bill C-75 that he won't get rid of.
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It's it's maddening. Now, the second lesson I think we've taken over the past year, don't sniff glue.
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I don't know. Canadians have learned that we have to focus on what we can control. And that's why I
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haven't lowered taxes barely at all. In a rapidly changing world, that means building our strength
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here at home. And that's why Canada's new government is moving swiftly with measures to build
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one Canadian economy, millions of more homes and major projects that will connect and transform
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our nation. And you see the problem here is none of this has happened. This again, going looking at
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these Newfoundland numbers, looking at him falling 11 points compared to the provincial results.
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This is why it should be terrifying to him because he's not done anything. He talks about doing stuff.
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Of course, there's talk, but there's no actual, well, here is the new thing that we've just
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done. That's going to make your life better. Here's another policy release they put out
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yesterday. And it's along the same lines of just tablum. Liberals last week, Mark Carney announced
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three key measures from our upcoming budget to empower Canadians with lower costs and new
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opportunities to help you get ahead, lower costs and protecting essential programs for Canadians.
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Here's one launching automatic federal benefits. Stupid. I don't want people to get automatic federal
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benefits. If people don't qualify and they don't fill out the forms, you don't get them. I am sorry.
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Yes, we can have accessibility kind of measures in order for people who it's difficult to actually,
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you know, be able to do all the filing and whatnot to be able to get them. Yes. If you're disabled,
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maybe we can do so. The problem is we have too much of a welfare culture and this is going to make
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it worse because he's saying, oh, people aren't getting access. I saw another press conference where he's
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like people aren't being able to fully access all the benefits they're entitled to. And so we're
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going to make it so that people are basically like the government shoves it towards you and says,
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take these. And he's saying it's going to be hundreds of billions of more dollars over the
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next several years that people are going to take out from other taxpayers because the government is
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really pushing more benefits at them. This is a Trudeau style handout program that he did when he was in
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political trouble, which is what Carney is in right now, which is what he's indicating to us by doing
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stuff like this. The other one, making the national school food program permanent. You know, you could
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just lower people's taxes significantly and they could actually pay to give their kids like a sandwich
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and a banana to go to school. The problem is I hate this culture. Oh, the economy sucks and people are
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struggling. Well, how about we waste even more taxpayer money, not just giving people back their own money
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so they can afford it themselves. But how about we start a bloated program to give people to do the
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food ourselves, like to do the food for them? Like, no, you guys don't seem to have a very high
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view of the individual. And then the last one here is renewing the Canadian strong pass and a strong
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pass. I don't even know what that is. Is that some like travel thing? Like, let's have some sort of
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Canada parks pass where you can go to every Canadian park if you pay a certain amount of money. I have no
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clue. But is this getting your goat as a voter? Are you going to be like, oh, wow, better reelect these
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guys. And now we have Gregor Robertson, the awful former mayor of Vancouver, who is now our awful
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housing minister, trying to get people excited with our new housing program. Look, Canada's new
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government is taking bold action to fix the housing crisis. I guess if they keep saying bold, then I'm
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going to think they're bold. That's how that's how life works, right? The housing design catalog features
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ready to build designs that will streamline home building by cutting red tapes, speeding up approvals
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and lowering costs. With these practical tools in builders hands, we're making it faster and more
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affordable to build the homes Canadians need so that everyone has a place to call home. You know, I feel
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like if you actually look through the housing catalog, one, you're going to get a lot of free
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fab garbage. But also, I feel like if you dig down enough, the companies that that seek to benefit
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the most from basically a standardized catalog of home designs is probably going to be some sort of
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a liberal ally. Now, I can't prove that. But I feel like eventually I'm going to see something from
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Blacklock's reporter or Moose on the Loose basically showing, oh, yeah, this is owned by Brookfield that does
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this specific type of home that the liberals are incentivizing everyone to build. What do I know?
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But yeah, it's it's not been fantastic. And again, none of this stuff is going to actually
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encourage Canadians to vote liberal again. This is just stuff. It's just the type of stuff that
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Trudeau was announcing in his last couple of years because, you know, he's lost momentum. And
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well, let's start a food program. Let's start a dental program. And maybe people all vote for us.
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I just went to the dentist the other day. I hate the dental universal dental program to the point I just
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pay out of pocket because who cares at this point? And now I do like this post. I want to finish on
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this post by Pierre Polyev because it's kind of a sequel to one of my other favorite Polyev
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Twitter posts that he's ever made, which he's right about. He calls Nazi socialists because
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they are socialists. Nazis are not right wing. They're not at all. But Polyev here actually responding
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to a post from his wife says, Nazi socialism, Soviet socialism, narco socialism, and all other
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forms of socialism move at different speeds, but always to the same destination. Impoverished hell
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for the many and special powers and wealth for the few. Only freedom, free speech, free enterprise,
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and free choice empowers all to fulfill their potential and live a good life, live good and
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great lives. Now this triggered so many people on the left, especially David Moskrope, who is just a
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full-on socialist. He writes for, what was it? It's just some pathetic left-wing newspaper. But he was
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saying, oh my goodness, Polyev and others saying that Nazis are socialists are spreading Nazi
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propaganda because the Nazis wanted people to think they're socialists. As if the socialism part was
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what made them cuddly or something, no. Nazis are in fact socialists. People will do this stupid
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game where they're like, well, they weren't the Soviets, and they weren't the communists, so they
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can't be socialists. Soviet communists, Maoists in China, fascists in Italy, the Nazis in Germany,
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the Peronists in Argentina. They are all socialists because socialism is societal or more like state
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control of the economy. You think there are a lot of fancy Dans and other free individuals around Nazi
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Germany opening up shops, selling whatever they want, and having any deal with their workers they
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wanted? No. Everything was extremely controlled. In fact, one of the first things the Nazis did when they
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got into power was remove property rights from the Constitution, which allowed them to do such
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things as remove business ownership from anyone who didn't want to follow their plans to completely
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depriving Jewish people of all their property. That's how they did all that, because they don't
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in fact like property rights at all. They don't like capitalism because they're anti-Semitic and they
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considered capitalism to be Jewish. But for some reason, you get all these mouth breathers on the left
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who don't like the fact that their ideology ends in some death and destruction, trying to separate
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themselves from it. Every once in a while, you'll get an idiot out there. And I'm just being as blunt
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as possible here, because you should with these people. They'll be like, well, the Nazis were right
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wing because they're racist. It's like Pol Pot was extremely racist. You think the Chinese government
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is super tolerant? You think that the Soviet Union was super tolerant? You know, they pretended at times.
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Not really. Being racist is not a left or right thing. It's just a thing. Pol Pot's people killed
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anyone who wore glasses and would go after anyone for being Vietnamese. You think that that made the
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Cambodian Khmer Rouge right wing? My goodness, these people are dull as a doornail. They'll call Bernie
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Sanders a great example of democratic socialism. At the same time, Bernie Sanders is not nearly as
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socialist as the Nazi government was or the Italian fascist government was. They fully controlled the
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economy. In Nazi Germany, if you wanted to build a typewriter, they would make you catalog all the
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materials that you need to build it. They would make you give them over your designs. They would
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make you, they would basically tell you how many workers you were going to hire and how much you were
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going to pay them and what their benefits were going to be. And then how much you were allowed to sell
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the thing at the end of the day because they profit capped you because they in fact did not like
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profit. They knew you basically, you have to have some level of profit. And even in the Soviet Union,
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people who ended up selling items still needed to keep a little bit for themselves so that they
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could actually function. That does not, they are socialists. That is how a socialist economy works.
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They tell you what you can do and how much of it and what you have to use to do it, both in material
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and labor, and then how much you're allowed to actually profit off of it at the end of the day.
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They actually in fact banned profit from the train system in Germany because Hitler didn't like
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profit. And so the entire train system had to operate on a zero profit basis, which meant by
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World War II, the entire train system had been very heavily worn out from having extremely low ticket
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costs and having no incentive to actually reinvest into it at all. But anyways, what do I know? I'm just
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a capitalist shill. That should be it for me today, guys. Hopefully you didn't mind this random rant at
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the end on Nazis being in fact socialists. But it's just something that always gets under my skin,
00:24:02.880
so I like to talk about it. But with all that being said, I do want to quickly plug that if you
00:24:07.740
are in the city of Calgary, make sure to go in the description below and look at my endorsement list.
00:24:12.980
I did swap out the person I was endorsing in Ward 5 because I learned that the guy I had endorsed,
00:24:18.160
although had a good platform, is a little bit crazy. So I picked another lady who's actually very good
00:24:23.200
and is not crazy. So hopefully that will work out there. I don't suspect a lot of people who watch my
00:24:29.160
channel live in the in the northeast ward of Ward 5. But there you go. Anyways, so with all that being