The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Carney wants 2026 election

00:00:00.000 Ahoy, everyone. Wyatt Claypool here, back again to break down some Canadian national polling numbers.

00:00:06.520 On the show today, I want to give you guys a broad overview of what the polling situation currently looks like in Canada for the Liberals and the Conservatives,

00:00:16.700 what we can expect if a snap election is called sometime in the year 2026,

00:00:22.000 and I also want to go over what makes for a good poll and what makes for a bad poll,

00:00:28.520 because we've been having a lot of bad quality numbers being released these days,

00:00:34.160 and I don't just say that if the Conservatives aren't leading.

00:00:37.920 There are polls out there right now with the Liberals leading, and I trust the numbers.

00:00:43.380 Obviously, any party has the capacity to take a lead in the polls,

00:00:48.200 but I do become skeptical if that lead becomes just unrealistically large,

00:00:53.360 and I look under the hood, and the regional numbers and the demographic numbers make no sense to what we can observe in reality.

00:01:01.820 But anyways, before I get to breaking things down, I just want to remind you guys,

00:01:06.520 if you like the show, make sure to leave a like on this video, subscribe if you are not yet a subscriber,

00:01:12.840 leave a comment about what you think about all this,

00:01:15.720 and of course, if you want to help financially support the show,

00:01:18.460 you can always go below the video and hit the join button and join one of the two tiers.

00:01:23.300 It helps make the show more sustainable for me and makes me less reliant on the YouTube algorithm for income.

00:01:29.800 Anyways, we will be starting off going into two polls from Main Street Research,

00:01:35.380 which will kind of demonstrate my point about good polling and bad polling

00:01:39.440 before I get into what I think are more realistic numbers right now.

00:01:44.020 And I will be clear, right now, the Liberals are leading.

00:01:47.620 You couldn't possibly not lead with all of the big things that Carney's been doing one after another.

00:01:53.640 Now, it doesn't mean that they're good things,

00:01:56.100 but oftentimes a Prime Minister just getting stuff done, getting deals signed,

00:02:00.620 going to China, looking Prime Ministerial, going to Davos and thumbing as in on to Trump,

00:02:05.160 that is going to have a positive impact on the Liberals.

00:02:08.180 Now, I would characterize it that right now their polling lead is uneasy.

00:02:12.640 A lot of things the Liberals are doing are pretty shallow,

00:02:15.300 and with good messaging from the Conservatives could even be turned into something toxic,

00:02:19.620 like the GST rebate that only goes to the bottom 30% of income earners,

00:02:24.900 which not only is going to be an insult to everyone who doesn't get it,

00:02:28.180 but even for the people who do receive it,

00:02:30.380 it really does feel like the dismissive father giving you $200

00:02:33.820 because, oh, whatever, leave me alone.

00:02:36.360 We'll get into that in a little bit,

00:02:37.780 but I want to show you what the numbers were from Main Street back on December 15th of 2025,

00:02:44.020 and now what they are as of February 2nd when their last survey just ended.

00:02:49.460 So going back to December,

00:02:52.240 they actually had the Conservatives leading back then with 41% of the vote,

00:02:59.340 definitely a good number for the Conservatives,

00:03:01.780 considering that at the time they were still dealing with the rumors of floor crossers.

00:03:07.240 Michael Ma hadn't quite left at this point.

00:03:09.560 There's all the media hysteria over whether or not Pierre Paglia was going to get through

00:03:14.840 his leadership review and stuff like that.

00:03:17.380 And so, you know, they were at 40,

00:03:19.240 sorry, I wrote down 42%, 41%,

00:03:21.880 but they were at 42% back in mid-December,

00:03:26.060 leading the Liberals, in fact.

00:03:27.520 By one point, the Liberals were very tight on their heels at 41%.

00:03:34.740 That's, I think, why I wrote down the 41% for the Conservatives.

00:03:37.700 I was thinking Liberals there.

00:03:39.320 The NDP, they had at six points,

00:03:42.380 which that's basically exactly where they were in the last election.

00:03:45.780 Makes sense because they're still in the middle of a leadership race.

00:03:49.100 People don't know what to think about them right now.

00:03:51.140 And the Bloc Québécois were at 7%.

00:03:54.520 I'm not going to bother with any other parties, the Greens, the PPC, and other,

00:03:58.500 because it just doesn't really matter here.

00:04:00.060 It's all very low numbers anyways.

00:04:02.740 But that was a snapshot of what Main Street has seen with the Canadian voting public

00:04:07.520 back on December 15th.

00:04:10.460 Now, let's jump ahead basically a month and a half.

00:04:14.120 We go from December 15th to February 2nd.

00:04:16.520 And this apparently is what Main Street genuinely believes the current,

00:04:22.740 I guess, the current, like, voting public looks like.

00:04:27.100 Both of these polls, by the way, have around 1,100 to 1,200 respondents,

00:04:31.180 which is a good amount.

00:04:32.240 But I'm going to go under the hood of this new poll

00:04:34.380 and demonstrate why even firms I like, I like Main Street,

00:04:38.460 but they can do bad, crappy work at times.

00:04:41.660 As of February 2nd, they are saying that it is, I'm not even kidding,

00:04:50.300 51% liberal.

00:04:54.240 And if this is making you feel, like, deem unmotivated

00:04:57.680 or, like, depressed looking at this,

00:04:59.960 I can tell you this isn't real.

00:05:01.900 We're going to go into why this isn't real at all.

00:05:04.240 Well, the conservatives in this poll weren't even doing that bad,

00:05:07.360 all considering they are at 36% in this poll.

00:05:12.760 In terms of, like, 36 isn't that bad of a number

00:05:15.200 for them to be in certain other polls these days.

00:05:17.760 But the NDP were then only at 4%,

00:05:22.400 and the Bloc Québécois were down at 5%.

00:05:26.900 Now, right off the bat,

00:05:29.640 I can tell you, no, no,

00:05:33.140 the NDP are not,

00:05:34.620 the NDP base that has left after the last election

00:05:38.100 is going to be pretty hardcore.

00:05:40.600 Now, I can see them not moving since the last election.

00:05:43.580 They were at 6% last election,

00:05:45.320 and they could still be at 6%,

00:05:47.080 as people don't know if they want to jump back on board yet.

00:05:49.700 But the remaining NDP support

00:05:51.080 is going to at least stick around

00:05:52.620 until after their leadership.

00:05:54.220 They somehow lost another two points.

00:05:56.660 And then since December,

00:05:57.840 we've had the Bloc go from 7% to 5%,

00:06:01.140 despite the fact that the Parti Québécois in Quebec

00:06:03.860 has been doing very well these days.

00:06:06.420 They are leading all the other parties by 12 points,

00:06:09.760 and that's the polling average lead.

00:06:11.740 They're leading by 12 points in very good polls by 12.

00:06:15.340 And they have to compete with, like,

00:06:16.860 five different Quebec parties.

00:06:18.620 They're blowing it up right now in Quebec.

00:06:20.840 They're doing amazing.

00:06:22.360 You think the Bloc Québécois is going to be at 5% nationally?

00:06:25.180 Now, remember, last election,

00:06:27.160 nationally they got 6%,

00:06:28.500 which, like, translates to, like, 29% in Quebec.

00:06:31.820 They're not going to fall while separatist sentiment is up.

00:06:34.920 They are a separatist party.

00:06:36.620 They are inherently going to be doing quite well right now,

00:06:39.400 but this poll doesn't show that.

00:06:41.180 But obviously, the big elephant in the room

00:06:43.180 is this upward trajectory for the Liberals.

00:06:47.260 Them literally going up by 10 points

00:06:50.560 when you narrow it down to decided voters,

00:06:52.960 and the Conservatives falling by 6.

00:06:55.920 This is not realistic polling movement.

00:06:59.840 This is what we call stupidity.

00:07:01.860 These are clown numbers.

00:07:03.740 These are not realistic.

00:07:05.400 And to prove my point,

00:07:06.860 I want to erase this

00:07:07.920 and show you guys some problems,

00:07:10.300 or at least erase the left side

00:07:11.720 and demonstrate some problems we have here on the right

00:07:14.580 so we can actually get to some good polls in a second here.

00:07:18.140 So when you do polling,

00:07:19.980 you need to get a sample,

00:07:21.300 that being the people you are polling.

00:07:23.980 And you want to make sure

00:07:25.240 that you're getting a good variety of individuals

00:07:27.440 that are actually answering the surveys.

00:07:30.220 Now, certain demographics are more likely

00:07:32.500 to answer a poll than others.

00:07:34.520 And you also need to be careful

00:07:35.900 that where you're getting those demographics

00:07:37.940 are going to be representative

00:07:39.180 of the entire region

00:07:41.220 that you're trying to poll

00:07:42.280 that make up the country.

00:07:43.780 So if you're Main Street,

00:07:45.460 you want, of course,

00:07:46.320 a big sample in Ontario,

00:07:48.260 the maritime provinces

00:07:49.280 can be a little bit lower.

00:07:51.080 Young people tend to pick up the phone less

00:07:53.120 and take polls less.

00:07:54.420 Certain ethnic groups

00:07:55.420 are less likely to take polls.

00:07:57.300 And so it's a little bit difficult

00:07:58.460 to get substantial enough samples

00:08:00.120 that you can extrapolate

00:08:01.480 from what those people told you on the phone

00:08:03.640 to the rest of the country.

00:08:06.040 But in that December 9th,

00:08:07.800 let's go back to the December 15th poll.

00:08:10.100 In that December 15th poll,

00:08:13.780 do you know how many young people

00:08:14.960 18 to 34 answered the poll?

00:08:18.820 It's not a big number

00:08:20.120 because it's hard to get younger people

00:08:22.000 like that to take a poll.

00:08:23.540 But 18 to 34-year-olds,

00:08:25.500 and I'm just counting decided voters,

00:08:27.460 not undecided,

00:08:28.720 they had 128 people

00:08:32.180 answer their poll in that demographic.

00:08:34.680 Not bad, a little bit light.

00:08:36.720 You'd maybe like to see a little bit more

00:08:38.300 in a 1,200-person poll.

00:08:39.800 You know, that's one-third

00:08:41.720 of the voting demographic

00:08:43.420 of this country.

00:08:45.060 A lower turnout rate

00:08:46.280 in that demographic, but still.

00:08:48.640 So then in their February 2nd poll,

00:08:53.960 in that 18 to 34 demographic,

00:08:58.680 I am not even kidding,

00:09:01.140 they polled 53 people

00:09:03.520 who were decided.

00:09:05.180 53.

00:09:06.320 Now, if you don't know Quebec politics,

00:09:09.160 the Bloc Québécois are typically

00:09:10.960 the older party.

00:09:12.060 If you're above the age of 60,

00:09:13.380 you're far more likely

00:09:14.420 to be voting Bloc

00:09:15.320 than you are Liberal or Conservative.

00:09:17.440 It's just, that's just kind of

00:09:19.000 what the party demographic is.

00:09:20.640 People who were separatists

00:09:21.620 back in the 70s, 80s, and 90s

00:09:23.740 have really stuck with

00:09:24.640 the Bloc Québécois.

00:09:26.200 In this poll,

00:09:27.600 I don't want to show all the cross-tabs

00:09:29.660 because they tend to be

00:09:30.640 a little bit of a, you know,

00:09:31.960 you have to pay to look

00:09:33.000 at the Main Street polls.

00:09:34.960 But I do need to tell you

00:09:35.760 some of the numbers

00:09:36.420 because when they release

00:09:37.500 a top-line number like this,

00:09:38.800 some people might accidentally

00:09:40.160 take it seriously.

00:09:41.620 So not only are the Bloc Québécois

00:09:43.380 down in this poll, guys,

00:09:45.500 but in Quebec,

00:09:47.020 right now,

00:09:48.720 and you want to find

00:09:49.640 the specific,

00:09:51.420 the brackets for people's ages.

00:09:55.580 So right now,

00:09:56.580 65 plus in this poll,

00:09:58.840 the Bloc were only at,

00:10:01.440 with 65 plus voters,

00:10:03.320 4.3%.

00:10:05.320 And they were doing the best,

00:10:07.540 in fact,

00:10:08.280 with young voters,

00:10:09.400 and they had 7.2%

00:10:13.320 of the vote with young voters.

00:10:15.980 In this poll, by the way,

00:10:17.220 do you know what the percentage is

00:10:18.700 that the Liberals have

00:10:19.840 in Atlantic Canada?

00:10:21.080 They have 77%.

00:10:23.520 No.

00:10:25.700 Should the Liberals be leading

00:10:27.100 in Atlantic Canada?

00:10:28.220 Yes.

00:10:28.840 In that last poll

00:10:29.860 where the Conservatives

00:10:30.900 were leading by one,

00:10:32.120 the Liberals had a lead

00:10:33.220 of like 18 points.

00:10:34.660 That's fair enough.

00:10:35.420 It's Atlantic Canada.

00:10:36.440 That's what it's like.

00:10:37.380 It's like in Alberta.

00:10:38.240 You should always have

00:10:38.880 a big lead for the Conservatives

00:10:40.340 unless some massive

00:10:41.680 cultural shift happens

00:10:43.180 over time

00:10:43.740 that we've all observed

00:10:44.880 and it makes sense

00:10:45.660 where the polling numbers

00:10:46.420 are going.

00:10:47.160 They're not at 77%.

00:10:48.540 Last poll,

00:10:50.060 the one back on December,

00:10:51.840 in December of 15th,

00:10:54.180 in Atlantic Canada,

00:10:55.640 the Liberals were at 58%.

00:10:57.280 That's a good number

00:11:00.220 for them in Atlantic Canada.

00:11:01.500 But this is where

00:11:02.740 I look at this

00:11:03.580 and I'm like,

00:11:03.960 guys,

00:11:04.640 go back to the drawing board.

00:11:06.300 Don't release this.

00:11:07.240 If anything,

00:11:08.260 this is misinformation

00:11:09.340 when you release a poll

00:11:11.340 that is this cooked.

00:11:12.960 When you go through

00:11:13.660 the numbers

00:11:14.200 in the new poll

00:11:15.060 and the Conservatives

00:11:16.660 are like losing men,

00:11:18.900 but it's mostly

00:11:19.400 that they've well over-polled

00:11:20.940 what I would consider

00:11:21.540 liberal women.

00:11:22.380 The Polioff Conservatives

00:11:23.940 only have 30%

00:11:25.060 in the new poll

00:11:26.000 with women.

00:11:27.020 And when you look

00:11:27.560 at all the other

00:11:28.220 voting demographics,

00:11:29.280 they're losing

00:11:29.700 every single one

00:11:30.580 by a mile.

00:11:31.940 And somehow we've had

00:11:32.860 like a 20-point swing

00:11:34.800 since mid-December

00:11:36.100 to early February.

00:11:38.280 That's just not

00:11:39.260 how public opinion moves.

00:11:40.820 Now,

00:11:41.220 is Mark Carney

00:11:42.040 getting a boost

00:11:42.780 out of Davos?

00:11:43.980 Is he getting one

00:11:44.740 out of the China deal

00:11:45.540 on some of the other

00:11:46.080 stuff he's doing?

00:11:46.980 Sure.

00:11:47.720 Every time a prime minister

00:11:48.900 makes some big announcement

00:11:49.920 over something he's doing,

00:11:51.020 he's going to get a small bump

00:11:52.440 in the popularity.

00:11:53.600 Even if it's not exactly

00:11:54.840 something even good

00:11:55.680 for the country,

00:11:56.900 you will simply have people

00:11:57.920 be like,

00:11:58.300 oh, he's getting stuff done

00:11:59.140 because people don't

00:11:59.640 pay attention that much.

00:12:00.800 That was another red flag

00:12:01.960 in this new poll

00:12:03.140 from Main Street.

00:12:04.360 You had literally,

00:12:06.320 I'm going to write this down

00:12:07.200 just because I think

00:12:07.840 people enjoy the visuals

00:12:09.520 even though it's just

00:12:11.060 me writing down a number.

00:12:12.560 Apparently,

00:12:13.260 in this new poll,

00:12:14.640 74% of people

00:12:17.280 watched the Davos speech.

00:12:20.020 Okay.

00:12:21.020 No, they did not.

00:12:22.480 Do you know how little

00:12:23.760 most people pay attention

00:12:24.840 to politics?

00:12:25.800 74% of them

00:12:27.040 watched the Davos speech

00:12:28.200 and then I looked

00:12:28.880 at the ratings

00:12:30.340 that he got from it.

00:12:31.600 Like pretty much everyone

00:12:32.820 but like five people

00:12:34.180 liked it.

00:12:35.240 You're calling

00:12:36.000 way too many

00:12:37.080 urban liberals

00:12:37.860 and you're not actually

00:12:39.040 getting a true

00:12:39.900 crosstab

00:12:40.920 of what people

00:12:41.980 are thinking.

00:12:42.920 So in a second here,

00:12:43.880 I want to delete

00:12:44.560 all this stuff on screen.

00:12:45.760 I'm going to erase it

00:12:46.600 and we're going to come back

00:12:47.800 and look at some more

00:12:48.920 reasonable numbers

00:12:49.920 from other pollsters

00:12:50.960 that yes,

00:12:52.180 show the liberals

00:12:52.900 in a lead

00:12:53.440 but a liberal lead

00:12:54.960 that makes sense.

00:12:56.380 Apparently,

00:12:57.300 World War III

00:12:58.840 happened

00:12:59.320 and Mark Carney

00:13:00.700 won it

00:13:01.200 because that's the only way

00:13:02.380 you're going to get

00:13:02.780 to 51%

00:13:03.860 and have all the other

00:13:05.000 left-wing parties

00:13:05.820 falling.

00:13:06.800 Anyways,

00:13:07.340 so I'm going to pause this

00:13:08.840 and we will be back

00:13:09.720 in a second.

00:13:10.220 We're back

00:13:12.320 and now we are going

00:13:13.440 to be looking

00:13:14.140 at the numbers

00:13:14.980 that have been released

00:13:15.880 by Nanos

00:13:16.880 and Innovative Research.

00:13:19.020 These are two pollsters

00:13:20.240 that I tend to like

00:13:21.360 these days.

00:13:22.520 After the last election,

00:13:23.860 I really didn't like

00:13:24.940 Nanos

00:13:25.380 because it seemed like

00:13:26.100 they weren't correcting

00:13:26.880 for a fairly obvious

00:13:28.080 response by us

00:13:29.080 where in like

00:13:29.980 June of 2025,

00:13:32.220 they were showing

00:13:32.640 like a 13-point lead

00:13:33.860 for the liberals

00:13:34.420 and I think that

00:13:35.560 over time,

00:13:36.160 they've actually corrected

00:13:37.060 their methodology properly

00:13:38.380 and this isn't me flip-flopping

00:13:39.900 that I like the numbers now

00:13:41.060 but I didn't previously.

00:13:42.300 They're a great pollster

00:13:43.460 in election periods.

00:13:45.400 They tend to use

00:13:45.980 a very, very in-depth

00:13:47.680 expensive form of polling

00:13:49.140 that does a really good job.

00:13:50.860 Post-election,

00:13:51.500 they tend to go

00:13:51.920 a little bit of a cheaper method.

00:13:53.380 So the polling

00:13:54.460 that Nanos does

00:13:55.020 during the election

00:13:55.700 and post-election

00:13:56.500 are often two very different things

00:13:58.040 but since that sort of

00:13:59.980 mid-summer massive lead

00:14:01.300 they gave to the liberals,

00:14:02.520 their numbers have become

00:14:03.400 more consistent.

00:14:04.600 When I say conservative,

00:14:05.700 I don't mean that

00:14:06.340 their numbers are more

00:14:07.160 pro-conservative.

00:14:07.980 I mean that the changes

00:14:09.420 in their polling

00:14:10.240 week to week

00:14:11.340 tend to make more sense

00:14:12.600 with the news cycle.

00:14:13.720 They don't have massive jumps

00:14:14.920 for one party

00:14:15.680 and then a massive jump

00:14:16.820 for the other the next week.

00:14:18.520 Polling tends to move

00:14:19.300 in a very,

00:14:20.500 like, you know,

00:14:21.160 they tend to trudge.

00:14:22.720 It kind of goes back and forth

00:14:24.480 and it trudges forward

00:14:25.680 in one direction

00:14:26.560 than the other.

00:14:27.500 Unless something crazy happens,

00:14:29.000 things don't tend

00:14:29.460 to move very fast.

00:14:30.560 So I'm going to start

00:14:31.240 with Nanos' numbers.

00:14:32.580 Then we are going to go

00:14:33.320 into Innovative Research.

00:14:34.600 Innovative Research

00:14:35.240 actually releases

00:14:36.100 extremely interesting polls

00:14:38.040 where they break down

00:14:39.080 voters' personalities

00:14:40.440 and they show

00:14:41.620 which personality of voters

00:14:43.100 are going to which parties.

00:14:44.580 And that actually gave

00:14:45.740 sort of an interesting insight

00:14:48.040 into what the coalition

00:14:49.120 that votes for Mark Carney

00:14:50.320 is like.

00:14:51.200 I also want to mention

00:14:52.060 what the Main Street

00:14:53.020 research poll,

00:14:54.000 when I was criticizing

00:14:55.020 the low samples

00:14:55.840 for younger people,

00:14:57.920 the problem what pollsters

00:14:59.040 will do

00:14:59.580 is if they don't get

00:15:00.480 enough young people

00:15:01.480 or they don't get

00:15:02.060 enough women

00:15:02.620 or they don't get

00:15:03.420 enough people

00:15:04.020 from Atlantic Canada

00:15:05.320 or BC answering the poll,

00:15:07.140 what they do

00:15:07.560 is they take a sample

00:15:08.580 and then they weight it up.

00:15:10.600 So if they get

00:15:11.180 too many people

00:15:11.760 who answer from

00:15:12.340 one category,

00:15:13.140 they weight them down

00:15:13.940 and they basically

00:15:14.900 weight the poll

00:15:15.800 so that the amount

00:15:16.960 of people who would be

00:15:18.000 in the electorate sample

00:15:19.320 that they are doing

00:15:20.120 would be turning out

00:15:21.420 in the rates

00:15:21.840 they would expect them to

00:15:23.000 in a normal election.

00:15:24.560 So obviously

00:15:25.100 in the new Main Street

00:15:26.680 research poll,

00:15:27.240 they had 800 people

00:15:28.520 over the age of 65

00:15:30.180 respond to the poll,

00:15:31.500 but only 53 people

00:15:33.160 below the age of 34

00:15:35.000 like answer their poll

00:15:36.960 and so what they do

00:15:37.880 is they weight down

00:15:38.980 the older demographic

00:15:40.860 and they weight up

00:15:41.720 the younger demographic

00:15:42.740 but the problem

00:15:44.080 with that

00:15:44.580 is you can't weight up

00:15:46.060 53 people.

00:15:47.680 It's too small

00:15:48.300 of a sample

00:15:48.800 which means the margin

00:15:49.740 of error is going

00:15:50.460 to jump through the roof

00:15:51.420 and that's what

00:15:51.820 I was demonstrating

00:15:52.620 by showing that

00:15:53.640 the Bloc Québécois

00:15:54.700 out of all the demographics

00:15:56.380 they were doing

00:15:56.920 really well

00:15:57.480 with young people

00:15:58.200 and it's because

00:15:58.940 it only takes about

00:15:59.600 like five people

00:16:00.200 saying they're voting

00:16:00.740 Bloc or four

00:16:01.580 out of 53

00:16:02.500 for them to hit 7.8%

00:16:04.400 which is a really good number

00:16:06.080 for the Bloc

00:16:07.000 in any election

00:16:07.840 with younger people

00:16:09.040 in terms of national vote.

00:16:11.160 So let's start off here

00:16:12.580 though with Nanos

00:16:13.720 and then we will move

00:16:15.100 on to talking about

00:16:16.740 I believe this is

00:16:18.220 the Nanos one.

00:16:19.240 Yeah, we will move

00:16:19.740 on to talk about

00:16:21.080 Innovative.

00:16:22.520 So Nanos' new numbers

00:16:24.240 are showing

00:16:24.780 the Liberals

00:16:25.580 are currently sitting

00:16:27.180 at 39%.

00:16:30.740 Decent number

00:16:32.320 for them

00:16:32.700 but remember

00:16:33.160 they are quite a bit

00:16:34.200 below where they were

00:16:35.240 at the last election

00:16:36.300 because they got

00:16:36.760 43% in the last election.

00:16:39.660 Conservatives

00:16:40.080 and Polyev

00:16:40.800 are sitting

00:16:41.920 at 35%

00:16:43.940 in Nanos' poll

00:16:45.300 which is also

00:16:47.060 a fall for them.

00:16:48.080 It's basically

00:16:48.700 a proportional fall

00:16:49.900 for the Conservatives

00:16:50.940 with the Liberals.

00:16:52.480 The NDP

00:16:53.300 in this one

00:16:53.900 probably a bit

00:16:54.700 of an over poll

00:16:55.420 for them

00:16:55.840 but they are sitting

00:16:57.180 at in this Nanos poll

00:16:58.780 13%

00:17:00.180 and we have

00:17:01.480 the Bloc Quebecois

00:17:02.600 also probably

00:17:03.480 a little bit more

00:17:04.180 elevated

00:17:04.660 than they should be

00:17:05.580 sitting at 9%

00:17:08.000 which would in fact

00:17:09.660 have them

00:17:10.020 at a large lead.

00:17:11.280 Although 9%

00:17:12.580 is less unrealistic

00:17:14.500 than 5%

00:17:15.740 like Main Street

00:17:16.340 is showing.

00:17:17.020 I could see them

00:17:17.620 at 8%.

00:17:18.300 Again,

00:17:18.960 the Parti Quebecois

00:17:19.860 at a provincial level

00:17:20.640 in Quebec

00:17:20.960 is doing very,

00:17:22.160 very well right now

00:17:23.000 so even 9%

00:17:24.120 is achievable

00:17:24.740 because obviously

00:17:25.920 the PSPP

00:17:27.620 the guy

00:17:28.160 who leads

00:17:28.560 the PQ

00:17:29.120 would be probably

00:17:29.960 very likely

00:17:30.620 to help show up

00:17:31.460 and move voters

00:17:32.140 out for the BQ

00:17:33.180 because then

00:17:34.020 he has

00:17:34.640 Francois Blanchet

00:17:36.900 would then come out

00:17:37.580 and help him

00:17:38.080 in the provincial election

00:17:39.160 so obviously

00:17:40.080 there are a lot

00:17:40.760 of incentives

00:17:41.300 for the Bloc

00:17:43.460 and the PQ

00:17:43.980 to work together

00:17:45.080 since both of them

00:17:46.040 are quite popular

00:17:46.900 at the moment.

00:17:48.500 And then

00:17:48.980 I want to move over

00:17:50.300 to innovative research.

00:17:51.960 So over here

00:17:52.840 we have a 4%

00:17:54.420 lead for the Liberals

00:17:56.100 and since their last poll

00:17:57.820 they've basically

00:17:58.640 not moved at all.

00:18:00.180 But we have a 4%

00:18:02.160 lead over here

00:18:03.320 which is not

00:18:04.420 insurmountable

00:18:05.260 for the Conservatives

00:18:06.140 at all.

00:18:06.640 Remember the Conservatives

00:18:07.420 in the last election

00:18:08.280 lost by like

00:18:09.000 2.5 points

00:18:09.860 nationally.

00:18:11.300 This is a bit

00:18:12.120 more of a lead

00:18:12.840 if this went

00:18:13.400 to a federal election

00:18:14.480 probably the Liberals

00:18:15.740 get a majority

00:18:16.400 but again

00:18:17.300 we don't have an election

00:18:18.480 going on right now

00:18:19.340 we don't actually know

00:18:20.220 how things would shake out

00:18:21.420 in a campaign.

00:18:22.840 Now going over

00:18:24.260 to innovative research

00:18:25.360 they have the Liberals

00:18:28.020 leading as well

00:18:30.540 but their lead

00:18:31.620 is a little bit

00:18:32.240 smaller in this poll

00:18:33.100 they are polling higher

00:18:34.660 at 41%.

00:18:36.760 This one looks

00:18:38.140 a bit more realistic

00:18:38.980 to me

00:18:39.400 because they don't have

00:18:40.080 the NDP

00:18:40.620 and the Bloc

00:18:41.780 as elevated

00:18:42.720 in these polls

00:18:43.480 but we have

00:18:44.740 the Liberals

00:18:45.460 at 41%.

00:18:47.060 We have the Conservatives

00:18:48.840 pretty close behind

00:18:51.380 at 39%

00:18:53.160 and then we have

00:18:55.620 the NDP

00:18:56.340 at 9%

00:18:58.080 and I actually

00:19:00.200 have to bring up

00:19:00.580 another chart

00:19:01.060 to show

00:19:01.480 what the Bloc

00:19:02.400 is at

00:19:02.700 because on their

00:19:03.080 own website

00:19:03.520 they actually

00:19:03.900 don't show it

00:19:04.460 properly.

00:19:06.040 Innovative

00:19:06.400 oh come on guys

00:19:07.260 where's Innovative?

00:19:09.580 I think they're

00:19:10.200 in this one

00:19:11.060 at 6% or 7%

00:19:12.300 so I'll put them

00:19:12.940 out down at 7%.

00:19:13.840 They tend to

00:19:15.640 actually poll

00:19:16.160 a bit later

00:19:16.780 so this one

00:19:17.360 is I think

00:19:17.880 about a couple

00:19:19.180 weeks older

00:19:19.920 than some

00:19:20.600 of the other

00:19:20.920 polls

00:19:21.180 but I don't

00:19:21.900 think that much

00:19:22.460 has really

00:19:22.860 happened

00:19:23.300 so we can

00:19:24.420 put them

00:19:24.820 at 7%

00:19:25.800 here.

00:19:26.700 Now this is

00:19:27.420 what I actually

00:19:28.160 think the

00:19:29.000 overall

00:19:29.780 current polling

00:19:31.580 map should look

00:19:32.560 like.

00:19:33.080 This is a 2%

00:19:34.300 lead over here

00:19:35.380 for the Liberals

00:19:36.580 this is a 4%

00:19:38.020 lead over here

00:19:38.760 for the Liberals

00:19:39.420 overall I think

00:19:40.800 it's probably

00:19:41.240 like a 3%

00:19:42.460 a 2%

00:19:42.980 to 5%

00:19:43.660 lead for the

00:19:44.360 Liberals

00:19:44.680 at this point.

00:19:46.000 The Davos

00:19:46.460 speech helped

00:19:47.040 Carney with

00:19:48.620 kind of I would

00:19:50.040 say CBC

00:19:50.780 watchers.

00:19:51.560 If you're a

00:19:51.900 CBC watcher

00:19:52.900 if you're an

00:19:53.540 anti-American

00:19:54.380 conservative

00:19:54.960 or a conservative

00:19:56.080 voter

00:19:56.300 if you're an

00:19:56.680 anti-American

00:19:57.340 voter

00:19:57.700 you are far

00:19:58.660 more likely

00:19:59.200 to like

00:19:59.740 what Carney

00:20:00.700 did there

00:20:01.180 and maybe

00:20:01.940 he captured

00:20:02.520 a few more

00:20:03.180 left-wing

00:20:04.080 Canadians

00:20:04.580 who were

00:20:04.880 undecided

00:20:05.500 maybe he

00:20:06.080 stole a point

00:20:06.620 from the NDP

00:20:07.260 maybe he stole

00:20:08.080 a point

00:20:08.440 from certain

00:20:09.200 conservative

00:20:09.660 voters

00:20:10.080 who I would

00:20:10.520 call like

00:20:10.880 the blue

00:20:11.300 Liberals

00:20:11.820 they're very

00:20:12.420 liberal in a lot

00:20:13.080 of ways

00:20:13.420 conservative in

00:20:14.100 some ways

00:20:14.560 and maybe

00:20:14.860 they're really

00:20:15.240 jazzed up

00:20:15.820 by what Carney

00:20:16.420 did so he

00:20:17.340 jumped from

00:20:17.960 where he was

00:20:18.560 in December

00:20:19.080 usually leading

00:20:20.340 by anywhere

00:20:21.420 from being

00:20:22.040 tied or the

00:20:22.960 conservatives

00:20:23.320 leading by one

00:20:24.120 to the liberals

00:20:24.580 leading by three

00:20:25.340 to now the

00:20:26.120 liberals leading

00:20:26.700 by two

00:20:27.340 up to about

00:20:28.160 five I could

00:20:29.260 maybe see a

00:20:30.220 six the GST

00:20:31.880 rebate and some

00:20:32.960 of this other

00:20:33.260 stuff will do

00:20:34.040 well for Carney

00:20:34.760 but again I

00:20:35.780 would emphasize

00:20:36.340 only really in

00:20:38.080 the short run

00:20:38.860 in fact here is

00:20:40.040 something interesting

00:20:40.840 that we have

00:20:41.440 in the new

00:20:42.320 innovative research

00:20:43.180 poll so they

00:20:44.180 break down

00:20:45.000 different voter

00:20:46.060 personalities

00:20:46.880 and then they

00:20:48.440 show how each

00:20:49.200 of them would

00:20:49.560 be voting

00:20:50.020 so I will

00:20:51.320 actually bring

00:20:51.840 this up on

00:20:52.320 screen right

00:20:52.840 now just

00:20:53.220 because you

00:20:53.600 guys will

00:20:53.920 probably find

00:20:54.460 it interesting

00:20:54.920 and this will

00:20:55.560 be difficult

00:20:56.060 to write down

00:20:56.860 but they

00:20:58.880 show the

00:20:59.560 kind of

00:20:59.820 different

00:21:00.160 sort of

00:21:01.000 personalities

00:21:01.640 of people

00:21:03.060 populist

00:21:04.040 conservatives

00:21:04.740 deferential

00:21:05.580 conservatives

00:21:06.140 business

00:21:06.740 liberal

00:21:07.220 left

00:21:07.920 liberal

00:21:08.400 core

00:21:09.040 left

00:21:09.400 and pay

00:21:10.160 as you

00:21:10.620 go

00:21:10.800 moderate

00:21:11.280 and they

00:21:12.120 have a

00:21:12.340 whole

00:21:12.480 breakdown

00:21:12.900 of what

00:21:13.820 these

00:21:14.060 different

00:21:14.380 voters

00:21:14.720 think

00:21:15.100 about

00:21:15.340 different

00:21:15.620 issues

00:21:15.980 as an

00:21:16.300 example

00:21:16.660 because

00:21:16.880 they

00:21:16.960 do

00:21:17.080 a

00:21:17.200 personality

00:21:17.700 test

00:21:18.120 the

00:21:18.660 funny

00:21:18.860 thing

00:21:19.200 is that

00:21:19.840 deferential

00:21:20.600 conservatives

00:21:21.200 is a

00:21:22.020 category

00:21:22.580 that right

00:21:23.480 now we

00:21:24.400 have the

00:21:25.360 Mark Carney

00:21:25.860 liberals

00:21:26.260 leading with

00:21:26.900 so maybe

00:21:27.600 I'll just

00:21:28.240 do DC

00:21:29.260 right here

00:21:29.840 it's

00:21:30.060 deferential

00:21:30.760 conservatives

00:21:31.380 and these

00:21:32.040 are people

00:21:32.400 who are

00:21:32.700 very

00:21:33.040 conservative

00:21:34.080 not in

00:21:34.760 a political

00:21:35.300 sense of

00:21:35.880 party

00:21:36.260 but conservative

00:21:37.160 in the sense

00:21:37.760 that they

00:21:38.200 trust their

00:21:38.760 institutions

00:21:39.360 they tend

00:21:40.340 to not

00:21:40.720 really like

00:21:41.260 overspending

00:21:42.000 and some

00:21:42.320 of these

00:21:42.480 other things

00:21:42.860 generally

00:21:43.460 speaking

00:21:43.860 they don't

00:21:44.240 want big

00:21:44.900 policy

00:21:45.360 changes

00:21:45.920 but they

00:21:46.520 tend to

00:21:46.940 like the

00:21:47.340 way that

00:21:47.640 Canadian

00:21:47.960 institutions

00:21:48.580 run

00:21:49.040 they

00:21:49.820 trust

00:21:50.580 experts

00:21:51.180 and what

00:21:51.660 not

00:21:51.860 are

00:21:52.000 experts

00:21:52.560 and so

00:21:53.440 with

00:21:53.900 Mark Carney

00:21:54.420 being like

00:21:55.220 the old

00:21:55.700 Bank of

00:21:56.100 Canada

00:21:56.440 and Bank

00:21:56.820 of England

00:21:57.180 governor

00:21:57.540 and a

00:21:57.860 Goldman Sachs

00:21:58.620 guy

00:21:58.900 they may

00:21:59.740 actually

00:22:00.080 like him

00:22:00.700 and so

00:22:01.580 right now

00:22:02.700 with

00:22:03.140 deferential

00:22:03.740 conservatives

00:22:04.300 with that

00:22:04.980 personality

00:22:05.620 they are

00:22:06.680 winning

00:22:06.980 44%

00:22:09.040 of

00:22:09.600 deferential

00:22:10.240 conservatives

00:22:10.820 in those

00:22:11.760 polls

00:22:12.100 and I

00:22:12.380 want to

00:22:12.640 get

00:22:12.760 into

00:22:12.920 some of

00:22:14.200 the other

00:22:14.400 interesting

00:22:14.820 ones

00:22:15.120 a bit

00:22:15.380 later

00:22:15.720 of

00:22:16.240 personalities

00:22:16.780 that

00:22:17.040 the

00:22:17.160 conservatives

00:22:17.540 surprisingly

00:22:18.140 win

00:22:18.520 so 44%

00:22:20.080 for

00:22:20.560 deferential

00:22:21.000 conservatives

00:22:21.580 for the

00:22:21.940 liberals

00:22:22.280 but the

00:22:23.140 conservatives

00:22:23.580 end up

00:22:24.120 winning

00:22:24.460 32 or

00:22:26.240 38%

00:22:27.540 so the

00:22:28.560 liberals

00:22:28.780 have about

00:22:29.200 an 8 point

00:22:29.800 lead

00:22:30.160 now let's

00:22:31.280 drop down

00:22:32.060 to

00:22:32.880 I'm just

00:22:33.660 making sure

00:22:34.080 I'm not

00:22:34.360 drawing off

00:22:34.980 the board

00:22:35.400 PC

00:22:36.520 here is

00:22:38.000 populist

00:22:38.980 conservatives

00:22:39.660 very much

00:22:40.840 the kind

00:22:41.540 of blue

00:22:43.020 conservative

00:22:43.720 Pierre Polyev

00:22:45.340 you know

00:22:45.720 Apple crowd

00:22:46.620 the people

00:22:47.080 who really

00:22:48.000 want to see

00:22:48.420 the CBC

00:22:49.120 defunded

00:22:49.860 big tax

00:22:50.880 cuts

00:22:51.160 big

00:22:51.460 regulation

00:22:52.100 cuts

00:22:52.500 they don't

00:22:52.980 hate

00:22:53.180 America

00:22:53.660 they don't

00:22:55.160 like the

00:22:55.940 anti-Americanism

00:22:56.920 and stuff

00:22:57.260 like that

00:22:57.700 this is

00:22:58.540 obviously

00:22:58.980 a group

00:22:59.700 that the

00:23:00.260 conservatives

00:23:00.680 have absolutely

00:23:01.700 monopolized

00:23:02.660 over time

00:23:03.960 they are

00:23:04.880 winning

00:23:05.200 70%

00:23:06.440 of the

00:23:07.280 populist

00:23:07.800 conservative

00:23:08.240 voters

00:23:08.760 and you

00:23:09.740 could say

00:23:09.960 well why

00:23:10.320 aren't they

00:23:10.660 winning

00:23:10.880 100%

00:23:11.580 of them

00:23:11.800 people

00:23:12.600 are weird

00:23:13.140 people

00:23:13.740 will

00:23:14.100 act very

00:23:15.300 populist

00:23:15.980 in the

00:23:16.140 way

00:23:16.280 they

00:23:16.420 talk

00:23:16.700 about

00:23:16.940 things

00:23:17.340 but

00:23:17.780 even

00:23:18.000 people

00:23:18.840 who

00:23:19.080 expose

00:23:19.840 certain

00:23:20.320 views

00:23:20.560 sometimes

00:23:20.880 vote

00:23:21.200 in a way

00:23:21.500 that

00:23:21.680 seems

00:23:21.960 weird

00:23:22.360 so I

00:23:22.980 could

00:23:23.120 even

00:23:23.300 see

00:23:23.620 because

00:23:23.900 in

00:23:24.180 this

00:23:24.380 poll

00:23:24.640 21%

00:23:26.140 of

00:23:27.360 the

00:23:27.860 populist

00:23:28.420 conservatives

00:23:28.840 vote

00:23:29.160 for

00:23:29.400 Carney

00:23:29.720 and now

00:23:30.380 they may

00:23:30.780 be doing

00:23:31.260 that

00:23:31.620 simply

00:23:32.240 because

00:23:32.780 they

00:23:33.360 wanted

00:23:33.820 like

00:23:34.160 Trudeau

00:23:34.620 gone

00:23:34.980 and

00:23:35.340 they

00:23:35.560 want

00:23:35.940 like

00:23:36.160 a more

00:23:36.420 business

00:23:36.900 focused

00:23:37.380 edge

00:23:37.740 to

00:23:38.080 like

00:23:38.840 you

00:23:39.000 know

00:23:39.100 a

00:23:39.320 business

00:23:39.620 focused

00:23:40.000 leader

00:23:40.300 and

00:23:40.460 they

00:23:40.600 thought

00:23:40.800 Carney

00:23:41.160 was

00:23:41.340 that

00:23:41.580 guy

00:23:41.960 and

00:23:45.980 they

00:23:46.320 think

00:23:46.720 of

00:23:46.840 themselves

00:23:47.160 as

00:23:47.400 populist

00:23:47.980 but

00:23:48.160 maybe

00:23:48.400 they

00:23:48.580 still

00:23:48.800 vote

00:23:49.040 liberal

00:23:49.340 for

00:23:49.580 some

00:23:49.920 sensibilities

00:23:50.900 that

00:23:51.160 Carney

00:23:51.440 touches

00:23:51.780 on

00:23:52.020 quite

00:23:52.320 well

00:23:52.660 for

00:23:53.060 them

00:23:53.260 and

00:23:53.940 now

00:23:54.180 let's

00:23:55.220 go

00:23:55.340 down

00:23:55.560 to

00:23:55.740 the

00:23:55.900 business

00:23:56.220 liberals

00:23:56.620 and

00:23:56.840 then

00:23:56.940 I

00:23:57.000 want

00:23:57.120 to

00:23:57.200 finish

00:23:57.460 on

00:23:57.680 the

00:23:57.860 page

00:23:58.080 you

00:23:58.200 go

00:23:58.320 moderates

00:23:58.720 obviously

00:23:59.120 left

00:23:59.480 liberals

00:23:59.900 and

00:24:00.100 core

00:24:00.340 left

00:24:00.700 that

00:24:01.040 is

00:24:01.700 very

00:24:01.980 liberal

00:24:02.400 and

00:24:02.620 NDP

00:24:03.040 but

00:24:03.740 let's

00:24:03.920 go

00:24:04.120 business

00:24:04.840 liberals

00:24:05.240 and

00:24:05.780 then

00:24:05.900 let's

00:24:06.120 go

00:24:06.400 moderates

00:24:07.360 the

00:24:08.040 quote

00:24:08.280 unquote

00:24:08.520 moderates

00:24:09.060 and

00:24:15.980 ideological

00:24:16.820 about

00:24:17.460 things

00:24:17.780 they

00:24:17.940 just

00:24:18.080 want

00:24:18.220 to

00:24:18.300 see

00:24:18.460 government

00:24:18.880 doing

00:24:19.200 better

00:24:19.540 maybe

00:24:19.860 they

00:24:20.060 think

00:24:20.240 we

00:24:20.380 spend

00:24:20.600 too

00:24:20.840 much

00:24:21.120 maybe

00:24:21.360 think

00:24:21.600 they

00:24:21.800 want

00:24:22.480 to

00:24:22.600 see

00:24:22.740 bigger

00:24:23.160 changes

00:24:23.660 than

00:24:23.860 Carney

00:24:24.140 is

00:24:24.260 actually

00:24:24.580 giving

00:24:24.860 them

00:24:25.080 but

00:24:25.280 we'll

00:24:25.780 be

00:24:25.920 getting

00:24:26.080 to

00:24:26.300 the

00:24:26.620 specifics

00:24:27.100 on

00:24:27.340 that

00:24:27.480 in a

00:24:27.680 second

00:24:27.920 but

00:24:28.600 with

00:24:28.780 business

00:24:29.220 liberals

00:24:29.600 and

00:24:29.940 this

00:24:30.180 is

00:24:30.300 the

00:24:30.420 group

00:24:30.600 I've

00:24:30.800 been

00:24:30.920 emphasizing

00:24:31.560 that

00:24:31.860 the

00:24:31.980 conservatives

00:24:32.400 could

00:24:32.640 make

00:24:32.820 big

00:24:33.140 gains

00:24:33.500 with

00:24:33.820 if

00:24:34.320 they

00:24:34.500 actually

00:24:34.900 run

00:24:35.180 on

00:24:35.300 a

00:24:35.540 really

00:24:35.880 bold

00:24:36.780 economic

00:24:37.560 reform

00:24:45.980 would

00:24:46.660 vote

00:24:47.060 liberal

00:24:47.480 but

00:24:48.360 32%

00:24:49.440 of

00:24:49.740 them

00:24:49.920 would

00:24:50.540 vote

00:24:50.800 conservative

00:24:51.360 so

00:24:52.140 there

00:24:52.320 is

00:24:52.480 a

00:24:52.660 lot

00:24:53.020 so

00:24:53.580 it

00:24:53.760 shows

00:24:53.980 that

00:24:54.120 the

00:24:54.220 conservatives

00:24:54.560 still

00:24:54.900 do

00:24:55.380 pretty

00:24:55.660 well

00:24:55.920 with

00:24:56.080 them

00:24:56.240 they're

00:24:56.420 not

00:24:56.620 down

00:24:56.920 in

00:24:57.060 the

00:24:57.180 low

00:24:58.200 20s

00:24:58.660 like

00:24:58.860 the

00:24:59.080 liberals

00:24:59.360 are

00:24:59.600 with

00:24:59.780 populist

00:25:01.140 conservatives

00:25:01.700 32%

00:25:02.900 is

00:25:03.080 respectable

00:25:03.520 and

00:25:03.760 there

00:25:03.860 is

00:25:03.980 a

00:25:04.140 lot

00:25:04.340 more

00:25:04.680 of

00:25:05.240 that

00:25:05.440 vote

00:25:05.720 for

00:25:05.880 them

00:25:06.020 to

00:25:06.200 win

00:25:06.400 back

00:25:06.840 and

00:25:07.420 I

00:25:07.560 think

00:25:07.740 that

00:25:07.840 they

00:25:07.960 ran

00:25:08.200 on

00:25:08.360 a

00:25:08.480 big

00:25:08.840 tax

00:25:09.260 cut

00:25:09.540 on

00:25:09.960 big

00:25:10.260 regulation

00:25:10.900 reform

00:25:11.520 cutting

00:25:12.280 a lot

00:25:12.580 of

00:25:12.700 stuff

00:25:12.900 they

00:25:13.400 would

00:25:13.680 start

00:25:13.880 winning

00:25:14.080 these

00:25:14.280 business

00:25:14.640 liberals

00:25:15.020 and

00:25:15.480 I

00:25:15.600 think

00:25:15.720 the

00:25:15.860 business

00:25:16.200 liberals

00:25:16.600 over

00:25:17.040 time

00:25:17.440 are

00:25:18.020 going

00:25:18.360 to

00:25:18.520 become

00:25:18.920 kind

00:25:19.400 of

00:25:19.600 sick

00:25:19.920 of

00:25:20.340 basically

00:25:21.320 carneys

00:25:21.860 devolving

00:25:23.360 back

00:25:23.680 into

00:25:23.880 Justin

00:25:24.220 Trudeau

00:25:24.700 GST

00:25:25.480 rebates

00:25:26.260 national

00:25:27.040 school

00:25:27.840 lunch

00:25:28.260 programs

00:25:28.900 and all

00:25:29.120 this

00:25:29.220 stuff

00:25:29.340 it's

00:25:29.520 just

00:25:29.660 giveaway

00:25:30.880 type

00:25:31.440 politics

00:25:32.100 rather

00:25:32.720 than

00:25:32.960 actually

00:25:33.380 building

00:25:33.760 a good

00:25:34.060 economy

00:25:34.520 like

00:25:35.000 the

00:25:35.200 fact

00:25:35.520 that

00:25:35.800 the

00:25:36.160 growth

00:25:36.540 of

00:25:36.720 the

00:25:36.820 economy

00:25:37.220 is

00:25:37.520 0%

00:25:38.460 actually

00:25:39.560 less

00:25:40.140 negative

00:25:40.860 0.5%

00:25:41.920 in

00:25:42.500 the

00:25:42.680 fourth

00:25:42.920 quarter

00:25:43.300 is

00:25:43.840 going

00:25:43.960 to

00:25:44.080 tick

00:25:44.260 a lot

00:25:44.560 of

00:25:44.640 them

00:25:44.780 off

00:25:45.060 our

00:25:45.480 economic

00:25:46.040 growth

00:25:46.420 in

00:25:46.960 2025

00:25:47.460 is

00:25:48.020 embarrassing

00:25:48.560 and I

00:25:49.280 could

00:25:49.520 see

00:25:49.780 a lot

00:25:50.180 of

00:25:50.300 the

00:25:50.420 business

00:25:50.740 liberals

00:25:51.180 reacting

00:25:51.940 to

00:25:52.120 that

00:25:52.260 badly

00:25:52.640 they

00:25:52.880 might

00:25:53.100 not

00:25:53.300 go

00:25:53.500 and

00:25:53.660 vote

00:25:53.820 conservative

00:25:54.300 on

00:25:54.780 net

00:25:55.140 but

00:25:55.660 you

00:25:55.820 could

00:25:55.940 see

00:25:56.120 them

00:25:56.300 falling

00:25:56.860 by

00:25:57.120 six

00:25:57.420 points

00:25:57.840 conservatives

00:25:58.340 going

00:25:58.620 up

00:25:58.820 by

00:25:58.980 six

00:25:59.280 points

00:25:59.640 and

00:26:00.140 then

00:26:00.320 that

00:26:00.660 may

00:26:01.540 be

00:26:01.660 allowing

00:26:01.980 them

00:26:02.140 to

00:26:02.300 carve

00:26:02.560 out

00:26:02.720 a

00:26:02.840 lead

00:26:03.020 here

00:26:03.260 now

00:26:04.020 moderates

00:26:04.780 or

00:26:04.960 as

00:26:05.240 they

00:26:05.420 call

00:26:05.680 pay

00:26:05.960 as

00:26:06.100 you

00:26:06.220 go

00:26:06.380 moderates

00:26:07.000 the

00:26:07.180 type

00:26:07.480 of

00:26:07.600 people

00:26:07.860 who

00:26:08.040 really

00:26:08.360 is

00:26:09.600 the

00:26:09.760 government

00:26:10.360 feeling

00:26:10.780 like

00:26:10.960 they're

00:26:11.080 spending

00:26:11.340 too much

00:26:11.820 how are

00:26:12.080 my taxes

00:26:12.640 doing

00:26:13.000 what's

00:26:13.320 crime

00:26:13.740 like

00:26:14.000 they're

00:26:14.200 the

00:26:14.300 type

00:26:14.480 of

00:26:14.620 voters

00:26:14.880 who

00:26:15.080 they

00:26:15.640 may

00:26:15.840 have

00:26:16.040 a few

00:26:16.340 very

00:26:16.640 specific

00:26:17.220 issues

00:26:17.700 that

00:26:17.880 they

00:26:18.000 care

00:26:18.220 about

00:26:18.500 it's

00:26:19.060 almost

00:26:19.240 what

00:26:19.400 I'd

00:26:19.560 call

00:26:19.760 a

00:26:20.220 disconnected

00:26:20.880 voter

00:26:21.360 they

00:26:21.900 don't

00:26:22.080 watch

00:26:22.300 the

00:26:22.460 CBC

00:26:22.820 all day

00:26:23.240 but

00:26:23.380 they're

00:26:23.520 also

00:26:23.700 not

00:26:23.880 watching

00:26:24.200 my

00:26:24.440 show

00:26:24.760 if

00:26:25.360 things

00:26:25.660 in the

00:26:25.880 country

00:26:26.620 don't

00:26:27.000 feel

00:26:27.380 good

00:26:27.720 they're

00:26:28.200 going

00:26:28.280 to

00:26:28.380 go

00:26:28.520 the

00:26:28.700 opposite

00:26:29.000 direction

00:26:29.460 of

00:26:29.620 what

00:26:29.720 the

00:26:29.840 current

00:26:30.080 government

00:26:30.440 is

00:26:30.740 so

00:26:30.900 probably

00:26:31.680 Carney

00:26:32.120 won

00:26:32.660 the

00:26:32.840 pay

00:26:33.040 as

00:26:33.140 you

00:26:33.240 go

00:26:33.360 moderates

00:26:33.880 when

00:26:34.300 Trudeau

00:26:34.660 stepped

00:26:34.920 down

00:26:35.180 because

00:26:35.360 he

00:26:35.540 seemed

00:26:35.960 like

00:26:36.140 a

00:26:36.260 breath

00:26:36.440 of

00:26:36.560 fresh

00:26:36.820 air

00:26:37.060 and

00:26:37.440 they're

00:26:37.580 willing

00:26:37.780 to

00:26:37.940 give

00:26:38.080 him

00:26:38.180 a

00:26:38.320 shot

00:26:38.640 but

00:26:39.300 right

00:26:39.640 now

00:26:39.920 this

00:26:40.140 might

00:26:40.380 surprise

00:26:40.880 you

00:26:41.180 pay

00:26:41.760 as

00:26:41.940 you

00:26:42.060 go

00:26:42.220 moderates

00:26:42.620 are

00:26:42.740 being

00:26:43.040 won

00:26:43.360 by

00:26:43.560 the

00:26:43.720 conservatives

00:26:44.160 they

00:26:44.760 get

00:26:44.980 41%

00:26:46.140 of

00:26:55.660 that's

00:26:59.080 not

00:26:59.240 too

00:26:59.420 bad

00:26:59.660 for

00:26:59.820 them

00:27:00.040 and

00:27:00.540 also

00:27:00.960 just

00:27:01.360 to

00:27:01.600 maybe

00:27:02.020 fill

00:27:02.320 in

00:27:02.440 some

00:27:02.600 blanks

00:27:02.980 here

00:27:03.140 pay

00:27:03.640 as

00:27:03.740 you

00:27:03.820 go

00:27:03.940 moderates

00:27:04.420 too

00:27:04.600 are

00:27:04.800 13%

00:27:06.320 NDP

00:27:07.320 this

00:27:07.940 is

00:27:08.040 why

00:27:08.160 I

00:27:08.240 mean

00:27:08.380 they

00:27:08.600 could

00:27:08.840 kind

00:27:09.120 of

00:27:09.240 go

00:27:09.440 anywhere

00:27:10.020 whereas

00:27:10.720 with

00:27:10.960 populist

00:27:11.500 conservatives

00:27:12.620 only

00:27:12.900 2%

00:27:13.440 would

00:27:13.640 vote

00:27:13.860 NDP

00:27:14.320 with

00:27:15.140 deferential

00:27:15.740 conservatives

00:27:16.340 you'll

00:27:16.940 get

00:27:17.140 maybe

00:27:17.380 5%

00:27:18.220 voting

00:27:18.520 for

00:27:18.700 deferential

00:27:19.260 or

00:27:19.440 deferential

00:27:19.840 conservatives

00:27:20.280 going

00:27:20.500 NDP

00:27:20.900 and

00:27:21.720 with

00:27:21.920 business

00:27:22.320 liberals

00:27:22.760 you

00:27:23.320 only

00:27:23.560 get

00:27:23.840 7%

00:27:24.420 going

00:27:24.660 NDP

00:27:25.040 I'm

00:27:25.360 just

00:27:25.520 demonstrating

00:27:26.100 that

00:27:26.440 disproportionately

00:27:27.540 the

00:27:27.920 pay as

00:27:28.160 you

00:27:28.260 go

00:27:28.360 moderates

00:27:28.800 will

00:27:29.200 go

00:27:29.480 NDP

00:27:29.920 because

00:27:30.600 they're

00:27:30.840 the

00:27:30.940 type

00:27:31.100 of

00:27:31.200 people

00:27:31.420 who

00:27:31.640 look

00:27:32.280 around

00:27:32.620 they

00:27:33.060 don't

00:27:33.440 like

00:27:33.640 what

00:27:33.800 they're

00:27:33.940 seeing

00:27:34.320 and

00:27:34.640 they

00:27:34.820 will

00:27:35.000 go

00:27:35.220 in

00:27:35.460 one

00:27:35.840 of

00:27:35.980 the

00:27:36.100 two

00:27:36.300 opposite

00:27:36.780 directions

00:27:37.280 either

00:27:37.520 more

00:27:37.880 left wing

00:27:38.380 or

00:27:38.600 to

00:27:38.800 the

00:27:38.940 right

00:27:39.200 and

00:27:39.760 so

00:27:40.040 right

00:27:40.640 now

00:27:40.840 this

00:27:41.020 is

00:27:41.160 why

00:27:41.500 I

00:27:41.680 keep

00:27:41.880 advocating

00:27:42.380 they

00:27:42.640 need

00:27:42.940 to

00:27:43.120 run

00:27:43.360 the

00:27:43.500 conservatives

00:27:43.920 on

00:27:44.400 a

00:27:44.540 20%

00:27:45.520 across

00:27:46.320 the

00:27:46.540 board

00:27:46.740 tax

00:27:47.220 cut

00:27:47.520 they

00:27:47.940 need

00:27:48.100 to

00:27:48.220 run

00:27:48.460 on

00:27:48.620 empowering

00:27:49.100 people

00:27:49.520 with

00:27:50.060 just

00:27:50.440 like

00:27:51.100 basically

00:27:51.620 getting

00:27:51.980 out of

00:27:52.180 their

00:27:52.260 way

00:27:52.520 run

00:27:53.080 on

00:27:53.260 a

00:27:53.460 somewhat

00:27:53.840 libertarian

00:27:54.740 economic

00:27:55.300 program

00:27:56.040 and I

00:27:56.600 think

00:27:56.760 you're

00:27:56.940 going

00:27:57.060 to

00:27:57.100 be

00:27:57.220 doing

00:27:57.420 so

00:27:57.720 much

00:27:57.900 better

00:27:58.160 both

00:27:58.820 with

00:27:58.980 the

00:27:59.100 business

00:27:59.380 liberals

00:27:59.720 and

00:28:00.320 the

00:28:00.440 moderates

00:28:00.840 you

00:28:00.980 may

00:28:01.180 even

00:28:01.380 clean

00:28:01.700 up

00:28:01.860 some

00:28:02.040 of

00:28:02.120 the

00:28:02.220 remaining

00:28:02.600 populist

00:28:03.460 conservatives

00:28:03.860 that

00:28:04.340 you

00:28:04.440 don't

00:28:04.780 already

00:28:05.200 have

00:28:05.660 but

00:28:06.660 I

00:28:07.100 want

00:28:07.260 to

00:28:07.360 show

00:28:07.480 you

00:28:07.580 guys

00:28:07.760 one

00:28:08.340 more

00:28:08.600 thing

00:28:08.900 that

00:28:09.080 I

00:28:09.200 think

00:28:09.360 is

00:28:09.720 interesting

00:28:10.240 because

00:28:10.440 we

00:28:10.580 keep

00:28:10.780 hearing

00:28:10.980 this

00:28:11.160 narrative

00:28:11.480 that

00:28:12.140 Poliov

00:28:12.640 although

00:28:13.080 we

00:28:13.440 like

00:28:13.800 him

00:28:13.960 as

00:28:14.200 more

00:28:14.420 hardcore

00:28:14.820 conservatives

00:28:15.400 the

00:28:15.980 problem

00:28:16.440 is

00:28:16.780 that

00:28:16.900 the

00:28:17.080 moderates

00:28:17.640 don't

00:28:17.840 like

00:28:18.100 him

00:28:18.320 the

00:28:18.740 voters

00:28:19.240 who

00:28:19.480 might

00:28:19.780 vote

00:28:20.040 conservative

00:28:20.540 but

00:28:21.020 are

00:28:21.200 on

00:28:21.380 the

00:28:21.500 fence

00:28:21.780 well

00:28:22.320 they

00:28:22.500 need

00:28:22.840 to

00:28:23.000 see

00:28:23.220 Poliov

00:28:24.020 moderate

00:28:24.560 and

00:28:24.900 then

00:28:25.040 they'll

00:28:25.240 vote

00:28:25.500 I'm

00:28:25.900 going

00:28:25.960 to

00:28:26.020 show

00:28:26.160 you

00:28:26.280 a

00:28:26.420 poll

00:28:26.620 that

00:28:26.840 completely

00:28:27.360 blows

00:28:27.760 that

00:28:27.960 narrative

00:28:37.100 polls

00:28:37.700 seriously

00:28:38.100 and

00:28:38.260 I

00:28:38.340 have

00:28:38.420 to

00:28:38.520 laugh

00:28:38.720 about

00:28:38.920 it

00:28:39.100 but

00:28:39.560 I

00:28:39.720 want

00:28:39.880 to

00:28:40.000 take

00:28:40.460 you

00:28:40.600 guys

00:28:40.760 to

00:28:41.020 an

00:28:41.200 abacus

00:28:41.620 data

00:28:41.900 poll

00:28:42.160 that

00:28:42.840 asked

00:28:43.200 people

00:28:43.580 who

00:28:44.380 are

00:28:44.520 both

00:28:44.740 conservative

00:28:45.220 voters

00:28:45.580 and

00:28:45.800 people

00:28:46.080 who

00:28:46.260 you

00:28:46.460 would

00:28:46.580 call

00:28:46.820 accessible

00:28:47.620 conservatives

00:28:48.240 what

00:28:48.900 they

00:28:49.160 think

00:28:49.460 the

00:28:49.640 conservative

00:28:50.020 party

00:28:50.380 should

00:28:50.640 do

00:28:50.980 in

00:28:51.560 an

00:28:51.760 upcoming

00:28:52.120 election

00:28:52.680 so

00:28:53.320 what

00:28:53.640 I

00:28:53.780 want

00:28:53.960 to

00:28:54.060 show

00:28:54.220 you

00:28:54.380 because

00:28:54.660 it's

00:28:54.920 pretty

00:28:55.140 obvious

00:28:55.580 that

00:28:56.080 right

00:28:56.280 now

00:28:56.580 that

00:28:56.840 conservative

00:28:57.440 party

00:28:57.820 voters

00:28:58.240 are

00:28:58.760 very

00:28:59.240 much

00:28:59.500 in

00:28:59.700 favor

00:29:00.020 of

00:29:07.100 those

00:29:07.800 who

00:29:08.040 might

00:29:08.380 consider

00:29:08.820 voting

00:29:09.160 conservative

00:29:09.600 because

00:29:09.900 you

00:29:10.020 keep

00:29:10.160 getting

00:29:10.360 this

00:29:10.520 narrative

00:29:10.860 if

00:29:11.560 the

00:29:11.760 conservatives

00:29:12.640 want to

00:29:13.020 win

00:29:13.280 they

00:29:13.760 need

00:29:14.000 to

00:29:14.160 moderate

00:29:14.700 so

00:29:15.340 these

00:29:15.700 are

00:29:15.840 people

00:29:16.160 who

00:29:16.660 potentially

00:29:17.580 might

00:29:17.920 vote

00:29:18.160 conservative

00:29:18.600 but

00:29:18.900 they're

00:29:19.140 undecided

00:29:20.300 or

00:29:20.840 they

00:29:21.020 basically

00:29:21.420 flip-flop

00:29:22.040 depending

00:29:22.380 on the

00:29:22.640 month

00:29:22.820 between

00:29:23.160 the

00:29:23.400 liberals

00:29:23.700 and

00:29:23.880 the

00:29:23.980 conservatives

00:29:24.340 and

00:29:24.520 who

00:29:24.620 they

00:29:24.740 want

00:29:24.900 to

00:29:25.000 vote

00:29:25.160 for

00:29:25.380 so

00:29:26.060 when

00:29:26.500 you

00:29:26.620 ask

00:29:26.960 people

00:29:27.260 if

00:29:27.440 the

00:29:27.580 conservative

00:29:27.940 party

00:29:28.220 in

00:29:28.320 the

00:29:28.380 next

00:29:28.600 election

00:29:28.980 should

00:29:29.480 stand

00:29:29.860 firm

00:29:30.200 on

00:29:30.380 principle

00:29:30.800 or

00:29:31.380 basically

00:29:31.800 what

00:29:32.240 you

00:29:32.380 call

00:29:32.620 win

00:29:33.020 broadly

00:29:33.660 broaden

00:29:34.200 out

00:29:34.480 your

00:29:34.720 appeal

00:29:35.840 by

00:29:36.200 moderating

00:29:36.960 being

00:29:37.220 more

00:29:37.480 liberal

00:29:37.820 on

00:29:38.080 certain

00:29:38.340 issues

00:29:38.700 trying

00:29:39.040 to

00:29:39.220 basically

00:29:39.740 be

00:29:40.720 the

00:29:40.980 party

00:29:41.300 for

00:29:41.560 everybody

00:29:42.160 or

00:29:42.500 whatever

00:29:42.960 when

00:29:43.720 you

00:29:43.820 actually

00:29:44.240 ask

00:29:44.820 accessible

00:29:45.600 voters

00:29:46.080 what

00:29:46.680 the

00:29:46.900 conservative

00:29:47.340 party

00:29:47.840 should

00:29:48.160 do

00:29:48.520 these

00:29:48.840 people

00:29:49.140 not

00:29:49.520 currently

00:29:49.980 in

00:29:50.220 the

00:29:50.360 camp

00:29:50.660 47%

00:29:52.420 say

00:29:53.020 you

00:29:53.260 win

00:29:53.620 broadly

00:29:54.480 whereas

00:29:55.900 actually

00:29:56.860 53%

00:29:58.600 say

00:29:59.440 that

00:29:59.700 they

00:29:59.920 should

00:30:00.140 actually

00:30:00.600 stand

00:30:01.140 firm

00:30:01.640 and

00:30:02.300 we

00:30:02.480 get

00:30:02.720 this

00:30:03.000 again

00:30:03.480 when

00:30:03.980 you

00:30:04.120 ask

00:30:04.460 a

00:30:04.620 slightly

00:30:04.960 different

00:30:05.400 question

00:30:05.960 about

00:30:06.800 whether

00:30:07.300 or

00:30:07.580 not

00:30:07.800 the

00:30:07.960 conservatives

00:30:08.380 need

00:30:09.060 to be

00:30:09.380 more

00:30:09.840 confrontational

00:30:11.020 or less

00:30:11.600 confrontational

00:30:12.440 when

00:30:13.100 you ask

00:30:13.520 more

00:30:13.980 I'll just

00:30:14.800 write down

00:30:15.220 more or less

00:30:15.820 down here

00:30:16.340 if you

00:30:17.060 ask

00:30:17.380 more or less

00:30:18.280 confrontational

00:30:19.180 to these

00:30:20.140 more like

00:30:21.120 moderate voters

00:30:22.080 I guess

00:30:22.660 these

00:30:24.660 accessible

00:30:25.100 voters who

00:30:25.620 are not

00:30:25.900 already on

00:30:26.620 the conservative

00:30:27.100 side

00:30:27.580 if you

00:30:28.180 ask them

00:30:28.800 what they

00:30:29.440 should be

00:30:29.800 doing

00:30:30.260 yes

00:30:31.080 they say

00:30:31.640 less

00:30:32.000 confrontational

00:30:33.020 they do

00:30:36.900 say

00:30:37.160 less

00:30:37.540 confrontational

00:30:38.380 at 74%

00:30:39.640 and then

00:30:40.740 say more

00:30:41.240 confrontational

00:30:42.080 at 26%

00:30:44.060 but this

00:30:45.160 is where

00:30:45.420 people mistake

00:30:46.180 it that

00:30:46.460 oh

00:30:46.660 we have

00:30:47.400 the conservatives

00:30:47.960 are too

00:30:48.400 conservative

00:30:48.900 but in

00:30:49.880 another poll

00:30:50.940 I'm trying

00:30:51.760 to find

00:30:52.100 this one

00:30:52.540 here

00:30:52.880 if you

00:30:59.200 just ask

00:30:59.660 them

00:30:59.820 if they

00:31:00.060 should be

00:31:00.320 more or

00:31:00.900 less

00:31:01.160 conservative

00:31:01.640 so we

00:31:02.040 go from

00:31:02.320 the

00:31:02.460 confrontational

00:31:03.240 to the

00:31:03.980 less

00:31:04.140 confrontational

00:31:04.820 let's

00:31:05.260 delete

00:31:05.580 that

00:31:05.920 now

00:31:06.720 more

00:31:07.380 conservative

00:31:07.920 to less

00:31:08.820 conservative

00:31:09.280 with potential

00:31:10.140 accessible

00:31:11.640 conservatives

00:31:12.280 you only

00:31:13.240 have

00:31:13.580 30%

00:31:14.620 say less

00:31:15.380 but you

00:31:17.160 do have

00:31:17.660 27%

00:31:19.200 say more

00:31:20.060 conservative

00:31:20.600 and this

00:31:21.640 is including

00:31:22.700 6% of

00:31:24.480 people

00:31:24.820 saying

00:31:25.560 stay the

00:31:26.480 same

00:31:26.860 which means

00:31:27.700 that pretty

00:31:28.680 much

00:31:29.040 that's almost

00:31:29.660 adding it to

00:31:30.360 more

00:31:30.680 because I doubt

00:31:31.540 any person

00:31:33.700 saying stay

00:31:34.280 the same

00:31:34.680 if Polly

00:31:35.300 have got a

00:31:35.740 little more

00:31:36.080 confrontational

00:31:36.780 would suddenly

00:31:37.280 run away

00:31:37.880 so in

00:31:38.700 reality

00:31:39.200 whenever people

00:31:40.080 say that

00:31:40.520 the conservative

00:31:41.020 party needs

00:31:41.700 to moderate

00:31:42.280 and be

00:31:42.920 more liberal

00:31:43.640 to win over

00:31:44.300 some liberal

00:31:44.820 voters

00:31:45.200 you don't

00:31:46.440 really the

00:31:47.580 voters the

00:31:48.100 conservative

00:31:48.460 party needs

00:31:49.140 are the

00:31:49.480 voters who

00:31:49.900 currently

00:31:50.220 don't show

00:31:50.880 up

00:31:51.120 yes you

00:31:51.740 want to

00:31:52.040 claw away

00:31:52.540 some

00:31:52.780 liberals

00:31:53.120 but what

00:31:53.820 you also

00:31:54.260 want to

00:31:54.640 do is

00:31:54.980 just turn

00:31:55.540 out people

00:31:56.020 who usually

00:31:56.600 don't see

00:31:57.040 a reason

00:31:57.520 to show

00:31:57.960 up and

00:31:58.240 vote

00:31:58.480 and that

00:31:59.220 is then

00:32:00.080 you have

00:32:00.480 to run

00:32:00.720 on big

00:32:01.220 culture

00:32:01.600 issues

00:32:02.120 big social

00:32:03.160 issues

00:32:03.740 big economic

00:32:05.040 issues

00:32:05.560 run on

00:32:06.480 big reform

00:32:07.580 to the

00:32:07.900 government

00:32:08.220 but don't

00:32:09.000 just tinker

00:32:09.520 around the

00:32:09.900 corners

00:32:10.160 don't just

00:32:10.620 play the

00:32:11.280 prices right

00:32:11.980 with the

00:32:12.280 liberals

00:32:12.620 where if

00:32:13.000 they offer

00:32:13.400 a small

00:32:13.740 tax cut

00:32:14.420 you owe

00:32:14.840 you offer

00:32:15.680 a slightly

00:32:16.240 bigger one

00:32:16.940 nobody really

00:32:18.180 cares if you

00:32:18.820 try and run

00:32:19.340 that way

00:32:19.780 but now

00:32:20.680 I do want

00:32:21.920 to just do

00:32:22.400 one more

00:32:22.960 thing before

00:32:23.660 this video

00:32:24.500 is over

00:32:25.080 I want to

00:32:25.740 talk about

00:32:26.380 a creator

00:32:27.280 trying to

00:32:28.320 take a

00:32:29.060 eco's

00:32:29.660 poll

00:32:29.860 seriously

00:32:30.500 this is

00:32:31.440 just an

00:32:31.780 addendum

00:32:32.180 to my

00:32:32.620 bad poll

00:32:33.380 section of

00:32:34.680 this video

00:32:35.160 because there

00:32:36.040 is seriously

00:32:36.540 this guy

00:32:37.020 we haven't

00:32:37.360 talked about

00:32:37.860 in a while

00:32:38.220 Frank

00:32:38.940 Dominic

00:32:39.780 trying to

00:32:40.440 act like

00:32:41.020 the new

00:32:41.400 eco's

00:32:41.940 numbers

00:32:42.240 are realistic

00:32:43.460 and remind

00:32:44.700 you the

00:32:45.220 eco's

00:32:45.560 numbers

00:32:45.820 looked like

00:32:46.480 the main

00:32:46.840 street

00:32:47.020 numbers

00:32:47.320 they

00:32:47.480 actually

00:32:47.680 might have

00:32:47.980 been less

00:32:48.400 insane

00:32:48.960 but they

00:32:49.720 are basically

00:32:50.160 showing that

00:32:50.780 the conservatives

00:32:51.260 falling

00:32:51.840 and like the

00:32:53.420 liberals

00:32:53.700 shooting way up

00:32:54.640 I've seen

00:32:55.280 people misinterpreting

00:32:56.040 these poll

00:32:56.440 numbers stating

00:32:57.040 that the

00:32:57.460 conservative

00:32:57.940 support went

00:32:58.600 to the

00:32:58.820 NDP

00:32:59.120 but that's

00:32:59.580 not really

00:32:59.880 what's

00:33:00.060 happening

00:33:00.300 so why

00:33:00.580 don't we

00:33:00.740 take a

00:33:00.980 look at

00:33:01.160 this and

00:33:01.460 understand

00:33:01.820 it

00:33:02.080 we all

00:33:02.640 know that

00:33:02.900 the reason

00:33:03.180 that Mark

00:33:03.520 Carney was able

00:33:03.980 to be

00:33:04.280 Pierre Polyev

00:33:04.840 in the

00:33:05.120 election

00:33:05.360 was because

00:33:05.800 a lot

00:33:06.200 of people

00:33:06.480 who traditionally

00:33:06.980 vote for

00:33:07.340 the NDP

00:33:07.760 switched and

00:33:08.760 voted for

00:33:09.100 the liberals

00:33:09.520 this seemed

00:33:10.140 to be out

00:33:10.520 of fear

00:33:10.860 of a

00:33:11.180 Pierre Polyev

00:33:11.760 majority

00:33:12.080 government

00:33:12.520 this does

00:33:13.260 not mean

00:33:13.720 that those

00:33:14.100 NDP

00:33:14.480 supporters

00:33:15.020 do not

00:33:15.520 want to

00:33:15.800 go back

00:33:16.100 to support

00:33:16.520 the NDP

00:33:16.860 again

00:33:17.140 it does

00:33:17.380 not mean

00:33:17.600 that they

00:33:17.800 support

00:33:18.140 Carney

00:33:18.480 in the

00:33:18.760 long run

00:33:19.140 it means

00:33:19.440 that in

00:33:19.780 that election

00:33:20.280 they made

00:33:20.960 a choice

00:33:21.380 and while

00:33:22.160 a lot

00:33:22.500 of the

00:33:22.680 times

00:33:22.920 there is

00:33:23.220 a correlation

00:33:23.740 between

00:33:24.080 the conservative

00:33:24.640 vote

00:33:24.880 going down

00:33:25.440 and the

00:33:25.900 NDP

00:33:26.260 vote

00:33:26.560 going up

00:33:33.980 are now

00:33:34.400 going to

00:33:34.700 go back

00:33:35.080 to vote

00:33:35.380 for the

00:33:35.620 NDP

00:33:35.900 which would

00:33:36.560 explain

00:33:36.880 the increasing

00:33:37.460 NDP

00:33:37.840 numbers

00:33:38.260 but what

00:33:38.580 about

00:33:38.740 the flat

00:33:39.300 liberal

00:33:39.680 numbers

00:33:40.160 didn't

00:33:40.580 they lose

00:33:40.920 voters

00:33:41.240 there are

00:33:41.880 many people

00:33:42.400 who are

00:33:42.800 conservatives

00:33:43.360 progressive

00:33:43.840 conservatives

00:33:44.440 center-right

00:33:45.020 conservatives

00:33:45.500 who see

00:33:46.200 Mark Carney

00:33:46.660 as a

00:33:47.320 conservative

00:33:47.740 successor

00:33:48.180 to Stephen

00:33:48.640 Harper

00:33:48.900 and they

00:33:49.260 would

00:33:49.380 vote

00:33:49.580 for him

00:33:49.860 which

00:33:50.220 means

00:33:50.380 that

00:33:50.480 you

00:33:50.580 cannot

00:33:50.800 inherently

00:33:51.200 assume

00:33:51.660 that

00:33:51.820 conservatives

00:33:52.340 are leaving

00:33:52.880 to vote

00:33:53.280 for the

00:33:53.540 NDP

00:33:53.780 it's

00:33:54.380 really

00:33:54.600 that NDP

00:33:55.160 people

00:33:55.560 are going

00:33:55.920 back

00:33:56.260 to the

00:33:56.480 NDP

00:33:56.760 and then

00:33:57.640 conservatives

00:33:58.080 are now

00:34:03.980 these dog

00:34:05.100 crap

00:34:06.420 numbers

00:34:07.040 as being

00:34:08.100 like

00:34:08.520 there's

00:34:08.880 some

00:34:09.220 hidden

00:34:09.900 nuances

00:34:10.440 that we

00:34:10.880 need

00:34:11.140 to look

00:34:12.120 into

00:34:12.300 it

00:34:12.460 you're

00:34:13.060 talking

00:34:13.420 in front

00:34:15.080 of a

00:34:15.320 poll

00:34:15.540 that

00:34:16.020 seriously

00:34:16.560 is trying

00:34:17.400 to argue

00:34:17.840 that the

00:34:18.160 conservatives

00:34:18.560 are only

00:34:18.980 at 29%

00:34:20.200 or 29.7

00:34:21.700 or 29.9

00:34:22.660 no

00:34:23.680 the liberals

00:34:24.760 are not

00:34:25.020 leading by

00:34:25.560 44 points

00:34:26.940 that's

00:34:27.700 insane

00:34:28.200 but he's

00:34:28.960 here

00:34:29.120 being like

00:34:29.680 well you

00:34:30.080 can tell

00:34:30.500 that

00:34:30.700 maybe

00:34:31.220 why the

00:34:32.020 NDP

00:34:32.460 is now

00:34:32.800 at 14

00:34:33.440 points

00:34:33.780 or 13.8

00:34:34.640 is because

00:34:35.100 they're

00:34:35.600 taking

00:34:35.960 points

00:34:36.520 away

00:34:36.780 from

00:34:36.960 the

00:34:37.120 liberals

00:34:37.460 but at

00:34:37.800 the

00:34:37.880 same

00:34:38.060 time

00:34:38.300 the

00:34:38.460 liberals

00:34:38.680 are

00:34:38.860 taking

00:34:39.120 points

00:34:39.420 away

00:34:39.600 from

00:34:39.740 the

00:34:39.860 conservatives

00:34:40.280 no

00:34:41.820 no

00:34:42.760 it's

00:34:43.180 just

00:34:43.320 called

00:34:43.520 a

00:34:43.680 bad

00:34:44.040 poll

00:34:44.480 frank

00:34:44.980 do you

00:34:45.660 really

00:34:45.940 think

00:34:46.240 that

00:34:46.460 in

00:34:46.620 the

00:34:46.780 middle

00:34:47.020 of

00:34:47.200 a

00:34:47.340 leadership

00:34:47.660 race

00:34:48.100 where

00:34:48.300 nobody's

00:34:48.840 really

00:34:49.040 paying

00:34:49.320 attention

00:34:49.740 somehow

00:34:50.500 the

00:34:50.820 NDP

00:34:51.200 went

00:34:51.540 from

00:34:51.780 six

00:34:52.160 points

00:34:52.500 in

00:34:52.620 the

00:34:52.720 last

00:34:52.960 election

00:34:53.360 up

00:34:53.960 to

00:34:54.120 nearly

00:34:54.440 14

00:34:55.040 no

00:34:56.160 it's

00:34:56.440 called

00:34:56.640 a

00:34:56.840 bad

00:34:57.360 left

00:34:58.140 wing

00:34:58.540 heavy

00:34:59.100 sample

00:34:59.640 that's

00:35:00.360 all

00:35:00.580 that

00:35:00.740 happened

00:35:01.060 there

00:35:01.280 if

00:35:01.760 you

00:35:01.940 sample

00:35:02.340 the

00:35:02.520 wrong

00:35:02.720 people

00:35:03.120 you're

00:35:03.600 going

00:35:03.780 to get

00:35:04.040 numbers

00:35:04.440 that

00:35:04.620 do

00:35:04.760 not

00:35:04.940 reflect

00:35:05.340 reality

00:35:05.940 now

00:35:06.380 I

00:35:06.480 don't

00:35:06.600 like

00:35:06.760 what

00:35:06.900 some

00:35:07.100 people

00:35:07.320 do

00:35:07.500 is

00:35:07.640 they

00:35:07.740 say

00:35:08.540 all

00:35:09.000 polling

00:35:09.400 is

00:35:09.700 rigged

00:35:10.640 you

00:35:10.760 shouldn't

00:35:11.020 look

00:35:11.180 at

00:35:11.300 polling

00:35:11.560 polling

00:35:12.200 is

00:35:12.500 actually

00:35:12.980 very

00:35:13.620 useful

00:35:14.120 you

00:35:14.560 just

00:35:14.720 have

00:35:14.860 to

00:35:14.980 sift

00:35:15.360 through

00:35:15.660 bad

00:35:16.000 numbers

00:35:16.440 and

00:35:16.940 actually

00:35:17.480 figure

00:35:18.400 out

00:35:19.040 what

00:35:19.280 if it

00:35:19.980 looks

00:35:20.180 realistic

00:35:20.660 you

00:35:20.900 might

00:35:21.080 be

00:35:21.220 able

00:35:21.280 to

00:35:21.400 use

00:35:21.600 it

00:35:21.740 I

00:35:22.320 had

00:35:22.500 this

00:35:22.640 one

00:35:22.880 guy

00:35:23.200 who

00:35:23.400 used

00:35:23.600 to

00:35:23.680 be

00:35:23.800 some

00:35:23.960 sort

00:35:24.120 of

00:35:24.220 conservative

00:35:24.560 strategy

00:35:25.020 saying

00:35:25.340 well

00:35:26.020 but

00:35:26.220 the

00:35:26.380 main

00:35:26.600 street

00:35:26.920 polling

00:35:27.360 still

00:35:28.600 indicate

00:35:29.480 that

00:35:29.700 there's

00:35:29.880 a

00:35:30.000 direction

00:35:30.460 that

00:35:30.660 Canadians

00:35:31.040 are

00:35:31.220 going

00:35:31.500 in

00:35:31.780 no

00:35:32.860 you

00:35:33.140 don't

00:35:33.440 do

00:35:34.120 not

00:35:34.440 like

00:35:34.720 wince

00:35:35.360 at

00:35:35.660 really

00:35:36.420 bad

00:35:36.780 numbers

00:35:37.220 and

00:35:37.460 try

00:35:37.780 and

00:35:38.080 interpret

00:35:38.540 how

00:35:39.100 they

00:35:39.300 could

00:35:39.600 be

00:35:39.840 realistic

00:35:40.320 or

00:35:40.520 they

00:35:40.640 could

00:35:40.840 be

00:35:41.020 indicating

00:35:41.460 something

00:35:41.920 a

00:35:42.520 bad

00:35:42.800 poll

00:35:43.020 is

00:35:43.200 just

00:35:43.360 bad

00:35:43.720 don't

00:35:44.240 try

00:35:44.440 and

00:35:44.540 take

00:35:44.700 anything

00:35:45.160 out

00:35:45.400 of

00:35:45.520 one

00:35:45.720 now

00:35:46.200 again

00:35:46.480 if

00:35:46.980 liberals

00:35:47.520 are

00:35:47.820 leading

00:35:48.140 at

00:35:48.280 a

00:35:48.360 poll

00:35:48.540 that

00:35:48.800 doesn't

00:35:49.200 mean

00:35:49.500 that

00:35:49.900 it's

00:35:50.020 a

00:35:50.140 bad

00:35:50.380 poll

00:35:50.680 some

00:35:50.900 people

00:35:51.160 will

00:35:51.280 be

00:35:51.360 like

00:35:51.540 oh

00:35:51.700 the

00:35:51.860 conservatives

00:35:52.300 should

00:35:55.840 be

00:35:56.100 up

00:35:56.240 15

00:35:56.600 points

00:35:56.980 no

00:35:57.840 there

00:35:58.160 are

00:35:58.360 a lot

00:35:58.620 of

00:35:58.720 people

00:35:58.980 who

00:35:59.180 genuinely

00:35:59.660 like

00:36:00.040 Carney

00:36:00.440 now

00:36:01.040 I

00:36:01.240 find

00:36:01.520 I

00:36:01.700 disagree

00:36:02.060 with

00:36:02.320 them

00:36:02.480 I

00:36:02.840 find

00:36:03.040 their

00:36:03.200 reasons

00:36:03.540 silly

00:36:03.960 many

00:36:04.560 of

00:36:04.720 the

00:36:04.820 people

00:36:05.060 are

00:36:05.240 retired

00:36:05.720 and

00:36:05.960 they're

00:36:06.100 not

00:36:06.260 living

00:36:06.820 in

00:36:07.020 the

00:36:07.140 economy

00:36:07.560 the

00:36:07.780 same

00:36:07.960 way

00:36:08.120 everyone

00:36:08.440 else

00:36:08.760 is

00:36:09.000 and

00:36:09.720 I

00:36:09.880 have

00:36:10.060 ways

00:36:10.520 the

00:36:10.780 conservatives

00:36:11.120 can

00:36:11.340 win

00:36:11.700 those

00:36:11.880 voters

00:36:12.140 back

00:36:12.540 but

00:36:13.080 the

00:36:13.620 liberals

00:36:14.120 are

00:36:14.360 probably

00:36:14.660 leading

00:36:14.980 at

00:36:15.120 the

00:36:15.200 moment

00:36:15.440 they're

00:36:15.860 in

00:36:16.040 the

00:36:16.180 driver's

00:36:16.640 seat

00:36:16.780 of

00:36:16.900 government

00:36:17.320 Mark

00:36:17.860 Carney

00:36:18.180 has

00:36:18.560 a lot

00:36:18.800 of

00:36:18.880 people

00:36:19.060 who

00:36:19.240 like

00:36:19.580 his

00:36:19.740 anti-American

00:36:20.380 rhetoric

00:36:20.740 and

00:36:21.000 they're

00:36:21.140 basically

00:36:21.520 willing

00:36:21.760 to vote

00:36:22.060 for him

00:36:22.380 for just

00:36:22.820 that

00:36:23.120 that

00:36:23.680 doesn't

00:36:23.940 mean

00:36:24.120 they're

00:36:24.480 unbeatable

00:36:25.080 they're

00:36:25.280 only

00:36:25.480 probably

00:36:25.800 leading

00:36:26.140 by

00:36:26.360 anywhere

00:36:26.620 from

00:36:26.920 one

00:36:27.600 to

00:36:27.800 five

00:36:28.160 or

00:36:28.360 six

00:36:28.560 points

00:36:28.920 right

00:36:29.120 now

00:36:29.380 and

00:36:29.800 it's

00:36:29.940 right

00:36:30.160 after

00:36:30.500 a

00:36:30.760 spate

00:36:31.220 of

00:36:31.380 big

00:36:31.700 announcements

00:36:32.220 which

00:36:32.920 could

00:36:33.160 turn

00:36:33.440 toxic

00:36:33.860 on

00:36:34.140 them

00:36:34.280 because

00:36:34.540 the

00:36:35.040 economy

00:36:35.460 is

00:36:35.680 in

00:36:35.800 really

00:36:36.200 bad

00:36:36.580 shape

00:36:36.920 and

00:36:37.060 that

00:36:37.220 hasn't

00:36:37.780 quite

00:36:38.020 set

00:36:38.340 in

00:36:38.620 to

00:36:39.040 the

00:36:39.180 Canadian

00:36:39.460 public

00:36:39.820 opinion

00:36:40.220 yet

00:36:40.480 we've

00:36:40.920 only

00:36:41.120 gotten

00:36:41.460 the

00:36:41.720 news

00:36:42.000 about

00:36:42.180 how

00:36:42.380 bad

00:36:42.640 the

00:36:42.780 numbers

00:36:43.020 are

00:36:43.220 over

00:36:43.420 the

00:36:43.560 past

00:36:43.820 three

00:36:44.060 days

00:36:44.280 and

00:36:44.460 none

00:36:44.600 of

00:36:44.680 the

00:36:44.780 polls

00:36:44.940 would

00:36:46.380 have

00:36:46.520 taken

00:36:46.780 that

00:36:46.980 into

00:36:47.200 account

00:36:47.640 none

00:36:48.220 of

00:36:48.320 the

00:36:48.440 polls

00:36:48.740 would

00:36:49.100 have

00:36:49.200 taken

00:36:49.400 into

00:36:49.640 account

00:36:49.980 Mark

00:36:50.380 Carney

00:36:50.800 pivoting

00:36:51.580 on

00:36:51.780 Trump

00:36:52.080 and

00:36:52.220 now

00:36:52.380 trying

00:36:52.600 to

00:36:52.720 apologize

00:36:53.180 to

00:36:53.500 him

00:36:53.640 again

00:36:53.920 and

00:36:54.400 it's

00:36:54.560 not

00:36:54.740 going

00:36:54.880 to

00:36:54.960 take

00:36:55.160 into

00:36:55.340 account

00:36:55.660 whether

00:36:55.940 the

00:36:56.200 Conservatives

00:36:56.660 can

00:36:56.880 seize

00:36:57.160 the

00:36:57.340 messaging

00:36:57.680 on

00:36:58.400 this

00:36:58.560 GST

00:36:58.920 rebate

00:36:59.520 and

00:36:59.920 rightfully

00:37:00.360 point

00:37:00.660 out

00:37:00.840 that

00:37:01.040 Carney

00:37:01.340 is

00:37:01.460 basically

00:37:01.800 trying

00:37:02.020 to

00:37:02.140 bribe

00:37:02.480 you

00:37:02.680 into

00:37:03.120 not

00:37:03.640 complaining

00:37:04.100 about

00:37:04.340 how

00:37:04.560 bad

00:37:04.840 the

00:37:04.960 economy

00:37:05.320 is

00:37:05.520 by

00:37:05.660 giving

00:37:05.880 you

00:37:06.000 a

00:37:06.100 couple

00:37:06.300 hundred

00:37:06.580 bucks

00:37:07.040 if

00:37:07.540 the

00:37:07.660 Conservatives

00:37:08.060 do

00:37:08.300 this

00:37:08.500 really

00:37:08.780 well

00:37:09.060 they

00:37:09.460 could

00:37:09.600 tighten

00:37:09.860 things

00:37:10.120 back

00:37:10.420 up

00:37:10.620 and

00:37:10.740 win

00:37:10.920 the

00:37:11.080 election

00:37:11.480 right

00:37:12.000 now

00:37:12.200 numbers

00:37:12.700 aren't

00:37:12.860 even

00:37:13.000 that

00:37:13.180 great

00:37:13.440 for

00:37:13.640 Carney

00:37:13.900 considering

00:37:14.340 that

00:37:14.640 as

00:37:15.080 Prime

00:37:15.440 Minister

00:37:15.720 if

00:37:15.920 he

00:37:16.020 was

00:37:16.140 doing

00:37:16.320 a lot

00:37:16.720 of

00:37:16.860 really

00:37:17.180 truly

00:37:17.640 popular

00:37:18.120 things

00:37:18.580 he

00:37:19.060 could

00:37:19.200 be

00:37:19.380 five

00:37:19.800 ten

00:37:20.400 points

00:37:20.800 ahead

00:37:21.020 of

00:37:21.160 the

00:37:21.300 Conservatives

00:37:22.020 now

00:37:22.260 consistently

00:37:22.920 but

00:37:23.600 a lot

00:37:23.880 of his

00:37:24.080 stuff

00:37:24.280 is

00:37:24.400 just

00:37:24.580 old

00:37:24.920 microwave

00:37:25.540 Justin

00:37:25.900 Trudeau

00:37:26.220 policy

00:37:26.680 and

00:37:27.160 I

00:37:27.280 think

00:37:27.440 eventually

00:37:27.980 Canadians

00:37:28.560 are

00:37:29.080 going

00:37:29.340 to

00:37:29.480 realize

00:37:29.980 that

00:37:30.380 things

00:37:30.560 are

00:37:30.700 not

00:37:30.940 nearly

00:37:31.240 as

00:37:31.420 good

00:37:31.560 as

00:37:31.660 the

00:37:31.800 liberal

00:37:32.020 propaganda

00:37:32.600 makes

00:37:32.900 it

00:37:33.020 out

00:37:33.140 to

00:37:33.260 be

00:37:33.440 but

00:37:34.080 anyways

00:37:34.380 with

00:37:35.000 that

00:37:35.200 all

00:37:35.380 being

00:37:35.580 said

00:37:35.860 thank

00:37:36.200 you

00:37:36.360 guys

00:37:36.700 for

00:37:36.900 listening

00:37:37.200 to

00:37:37.380 me

00:37:37.520 ramble

00:37:37.920 in

00:37:38.120 this

00:37:38.300 very

00:37:38.560 long

00:37:38.900 polling

00:37:39.200 update

00:37:39.620 video

00:37:40.060 I

00:37:40.860 talked

00:37:41.140 to

00:37:41.260 a lot

00:37:41.420 of

00:37:41.520 you

00:37:41.620 when

00:37:41.760 I

00:37:41.820 was

00:37:41.900 at

00:37:42.020 that

00:37:42.160 ranchman's

00:37:42.700 event

00:37:42.880 you

00:37:43.060 guys

00:37:43.280 really

00:37:43.480 liked

00:37:43.760 the

00:37:43.900 polling

00:37:44.140 and

00:37:45.140 I

00:37:45.260 am

00:37:45.400 shocked

00:37:45.740 about

00:37:45.960 how

00:37:46.560 closely

00:37:47.420 people

00:37:47.780 actually

00:37:48.200 follow

00:37:48.560 these

00:37:48.800 videos

00:37:49.200 not

00:37:49.880 like

00:37:50.120 I'm

00:37:50.280 like

00:37:50.420 oh

00:37:50.540 my

00:37:50.660 goodness

00:37:50.900 people

00:37:51.120 actually

00:37:51.440 watch

00:37:51.820 videos

00:37:52.220 closely

00:37:52.780 but

00:37:53.220 I

00:37:53.300 was

00:37:53.400 wondering

00:37:53.660 if

00:37:53.860 this

00:37:54.020 is

00:37:54.180 boring

00:37:54.520 and

00:37:54.720 people

00:37:54.920 put

00:37:55.260 up

00:37:55.420 with

00:37:55.560 this

00:37:55.720 stuff

00:37:55.980 but

00:37:56.180 people

00:37:56.440 actually

00:37:56.740 do

00:37:56.940 quite

00:37:57.200 like

00:37:57.480 it

00:37:57.660 and

00:37:58.120 I

00:37:58.220 think

00:37:58.360 it

00:37:58.480 is

00:37:58.620 a

00:37:58.720 good

00:37:58.820 way

00:37:59.000 of

00:37:59.120 actually

00:37:59.400 looking

00:38:00.000 at

00:38:00.760 the

00:38:01.180 numbers

00:38:01.560 and

00:38:01.820 being

00:38:02.000 able

00:38:02.180 to

00:38:02.280 get

00:38:02.400 a

00:38:02.580 deeper

00:38:03.020 picture

00:38:03.520 of

00:38:04.120 which

00:38:04.640 party

00:38:05.080 or

00:38:05.560 who

00:38:05.900 each

00:38:06.200 party

00:38:06.480 is

00:38:06.600 doing

00:38:06.780 better

00:38:07.080 with

00:38:07.280 because

00:38:07.520 it

00:38:07.680 could

00:38:07.900 make

00:38:10.540 you

00:38:10.700 better

00:38:10.980 at

00:38:11.200 actually

00:38:11.440 identifying

00:38:12.300 voters

00:38:13.760 that the

00:38:14.160 conservatives

00:38:14.520 could get

00:38:15.000 which

00:38:15.260 voters

00:38:15.600 with

00:38:16.060 the

00:38:16.200 liberals

00:38:16.560 or

00:38:16.920 why

00:38:17.200 do

00:38:17.340 people

00:38:17.560 vote

00:38:17.800 liberal

00:38:18.120 how

00:38:18.400 could

00:38:18.580 you

00:38:18.700 win

00:38:18.880 them

00:38:19.040 back

00:38:19.400 I

00:38:20.000 think

00:38:20.220 when

00:38:20.420 you

00:38:20.600 get

00:38:20.800 more

00:38:21.240 into

00:38:21.560 the

00:38:21.700 numbers

00:38:21.960 it

00:38:22.160 can

00:38:22.440 make

00:38:22.700 you

00:38:22.860 a

00:38:23.040 much

00:38:23.240 better

00:38:23.540 campaigner

00:38:24.240 but

00:38:24.900 anyways

00:38:25.240 with

00:38:25.800 that

00:38:25.940 all

00:38:26.120 being

00:38:26.300 said

00:38:26.560 thank

00:38:26.920 you

00:38:27.040 guys

00:38:27.240 for

00:38:27.400 watching

00:38:27.860 like

00:38:28.620 share

00:38:28.920 subscribe

00:38:29.520 consider

00:38:30.080 hitting

00:38:30.360 the

00:38:30.520 join

00:38:30.760 button

00:38:31.140 and

00:38:31.360 financially

00:38:31.800 supporting

00:38:32.260 the

00:38:32.420 channel

00:38:32.740 but

00:38:33.380 with

00:38:33.560 all

00:38:33.720 that

00:38:33.940 I'll

00:38:34.160 see

00:38:34.320 you

00:38:34.460 guys

00:38:34.780 next

00:38:35.280 time

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - February 03, 2026

Carney wants 2026 election - What do his polls look like？

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