Carney will have a Liberal MP resign on him!
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Summary
Wyatt Clunis back in the studio to discuss PM Mark Carney potentially losing a Liberal MP who may resign to run for the Ontario Liberal leadership, and why that s a good thing. Also, Bonnie Crombie survived her leadership review with 57% of the vote, which is below the threshold needed for her to remain in the job.
Transcript
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Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. It's great to be back in the studio again. If you only started
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watching me in the past three days, I promise you most of my videos don't look like I've been
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taken hostage. That's just a consequence of me filming when I'm on the road. And by the way,
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thank you to everyone who was able to show up to the 1BC inaugural town hall in Abbotsford.
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We had 175 people show up, which is hilarious because BC Conservative leader John Rustad,
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when he had his free barbecue and leadership review the week before we were there, only had
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80 people show up, and that's including some of his staff members. But that's not why you guys
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clicked on the video today. We need to discuss Prime Minister Mark Carney potentially losing a
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Liberal MP who may resign to run for Ontario Liberal leadership. This has been kind of a
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long time coming. Everyone knows that MP Nate Erskine-Smith is extremely unhappy sitting in
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the Liberal caucus. Mark Carney doesn't like him, he does not like Mark Carney, and he actually has
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a very good reason to not like Mark Carney because Mark Carney betrayed him pretty hard. But I'm going
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to take this from the top with you guys, go through the whole story, and the likelihood that we are
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going to have Nate Erskine-Smith run for the Ontario Liberal leadership and just leave federal
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politics permanently. But before we get into it, I just want to remind you guys, hey, if you like the
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video, make sure to leave a like on this video. Or if you like the channel, leave a like on this
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video. I screwed it up, but we're not going to reset the video now. Subscribe if you're not yet a
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subscriber. I'm trying to hit 100,000 by mid-December of this year and leave a comment on what you think
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about the situation. So you guys, I really do film these things live, and I had that quiver in my heart
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feeling like, oh goodness, am I going to have to restart the video once again and film from the top
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because that's how these things are made. But let's get over to what's happening with the Ontario
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Liberal Party. Bonnie Crombie technically survived her leadership review. It says here,
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breaking, Bonnie Crombie has survived her leadership review with 57% of the vote. That's below the
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threshold of support the new Leaf Liberal set for her to remain in the job. More to come. Now, the new
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Leaf Liberals are like the more progressive-y, you know, Green Party, NDP-ish type Liberals who ended up
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voting for the Ontario Liberals in the last election. You know, the pro-proportional representation type
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of provincial Liberals. Now, it shouldn't be shocking that after having 57% of people in her
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own party only willing to support her, she ended up resigning. You know, she put out some generic
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statement. I've talked with my friends, I've talked with my family, I've talked with my colleagues,
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and I believe that the best path forward for me, the province, and the party is for it to step down
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and have a leadership race. I do hope one day we have the leadership story arc. I was hoping it was
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going to happen with Justin Trudeau, and then I was hoping it was going to happen with Bonnie Crombie,
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that if someone ever fails in a leadership review, and technically you only need 50% plus one,
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but really you need like 75% at the minimum in most leadership reviews to be able to stick around,
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because if you can't get a good portion of your own people on side, your own members on side,
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how are you ever going to actually win a general election? But I'm waiting for the day that someone
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resigns, and then they run for leader again. They're like, if you want it, you come and take
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it from me, you piles of rat filth. Come and, you know, just holding up two knives at the same time
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that you're announcing you're running again. It's like, it's crumpy 2.0, guys, come and take it from
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me. I want that one day. But alas, that doesn't look like it's going to happen. But now let's
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jump over to Nate Erskine-Smith. Now, you'll remember, or maybe you won't because it was a
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bit of a fly-by-night moment. Nate Erskine-Smith was one of the liberal MPs like Sean Fraser and
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Anita Anand, who had announced in sort of the later days of 2024 that they aren't running again,
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because the liberals were like 20 points down in the polls. Not only were the liberals not going
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to get re-elected to government at the time, but the liberal MPs, some of these people, even in safe
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ridings in the GTA or in Nova Scotia, were not going to be able to even win re-election. So a lot of
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them were planning on dropping out. And then when Mark Carney became the leader, he ended up trying to
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bring people back into the fold, wanting their name recognition and their incumbent status,
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to help boost up his numbers. And so he ended up attracting all of these different people back.
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Now, Sean Fraser was already a minister, but it was kind of also seen that he was so incompetent as
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both the immigration minister and the housing minister that he's probably best left outside
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a cabinet. But Carney wanted his supposed star power, and maybe he doesn't. That's sad in that part of
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Nova Scotia that Sean Fraser has star power. But Sean Fraser was let back in and that he would be
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made the attorney general at some point. Anita Anand came back, and she later became the foreign affairs
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minister. I believe she was defense before. Nate Erskine-Smith had never been anything, I believe,
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above some sort of committee member or parliamentary secretary. He's this very left liberal, vegan,
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environmental guy, super pro-Gaza. Really, he's just pro-Hamas. He'll just make as many excuses for
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Hamas violence as humanly possible, calling for boycotts of Israel and stuff like that.
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But if I was to rate his political prowess, I would actually say that if you're rating skill in
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politics, I'd put Nate Erskine-Smith at a solid A-. He's quite good. He can be sensitive. He freaks out
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of people who question him sometimes. But he's one of these people like Michelle Rempel. He's very good
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at social media. He produces his own podcast while he is in Parliament, which is a frankly very smart
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idea. If I ever make it to Parliament or the legislature, I would do the same thing, just keep
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doing the show while I'm in office. Because why not? It's my job to communicate to the public, so why would
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I cut myself off at my knees and just start only tweeting or only sending out press releases?
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But Nate was offered a job to stick around, and he came back. Now, there was this article from the
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Toronto Star, and this was in May after the election. May 13th is when Mark Carney, after the
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election, started appointing people to his cabinet. But you will remember, as is indicated right here,
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on March 14th, Mark Carney, after he became the leader of the Liberal Party, a couple of days later,
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he was technically the Prime Minister. He got sworn in as Prime Minister himself, even though he didn't
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have a seat. And then he started putting together his cabinet. And somebody that was in his cabinet
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as Housing Minister was Nate Erskine-Smith. And so, yeah, and then on March, so March 14th,
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Nate Erskine-Smith is the new Housing Minister. Post-election, May 13th comes by, and Nate Erskine-Smith not
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only isn't Housing Minister, he isn't anything. And yeah, he did feel betrayed, which we know because
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he told the media that he felt betrayed. I think he should have seen this coming, but you can see
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here from the CBC News headline, former Housing Minister Nate Erskine-Smith says he feels disrespected
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after being dropped from cabinet. And to even say he's the former Housing Minister is kind of a joke,
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because he never actually did anything as Housing Minister. How could he? He was in the job for about
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four minutes. And even a lot of other people had the same treatment. I believe their House leader
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never even got to preside over the House, even though she was given the token role for a little
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bit. There was never a moment that Parliament was even in session for these roles to come into effect
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when it came to things like the party whip and the House leader and the kind of other sorts of deputy
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leader that was going on. So yeah, Nate has been kicked around a lot. And Nate has also been now
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kind of attacking his own government since then. You'll remember during the Air Canada fiasco that
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while the Liberals were trying to force workers back, all the flight attendants that worked for
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Air Canada back into work, Nate Erskine-Smith in the middle of it tweeted out,
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some labor disputes are complicated, this one isn't. Air Canada should pay and treat its flight
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attendants fairly. Now, I don't really care about his statement about that particular thing.
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I agree with him, disagree with him on that issue. I think he's simplifying it to the idea that Air
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Canada is a greedy corporation ripping off its workers, when in fact, the airline industry is
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like very unprofitable because the sheer amounts of regulations, taxes and fees associated with it,
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and just the very high cost of running an airline in the first place. But he was signaling his ability
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to kind of disagree with the Prime Minister and that he was unhappy. And then we just had him put out
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this video on September 12th. Now, this was before Bonnie Crombie had lost the leadership race yesterday
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on the 14th. But mark my words, guys, in a leadership review, when most of the ballots are in,
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and most people kind of know in their circles who voted for what, whether they wanted to keep Bonnie
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Crombie or they wanted to get rid of her, it was probably clear to Nate Erskine-Smith that she was
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not going to make it. And he released this three minute and 10 second video where he tends to make
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a lot of references to Ontario provincial politics. And I think this is him putting out feelers
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What do we want from our politics? Well, our National Caucus just met in Edmonton to get ready
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for the return of Parliament. And Ontario Liberals will now decide what the future holds. In both
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cases, we need to ask ourselves what we want from our politics. While direct attacks to our sovereignty
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have abated, we still need our leaders to stand firm in the face of threats to our economic security.
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The Prime Minister has rightly promised by Canada federal procurement and sectoral supports where
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needed most. And by the way, I would say if you see, obviously he is like saying nice things about
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Carney here and agreeing with him. But if he's going to run for leader, this is not an indication that
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he's going to stay because he's saying nice things. In fact, if Nate Erskine-Smith, who openly seems to
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disagree with Mark Carney all the time, suddenly start saying nice things, it's probably because he just
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doesn't want Carney to step on his toes if he resigns and then runs for Ontario leader.
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Strangely though, after a snap election call to specifically earn a mandate to fight back,
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well, Ford's response has been middling at best. Now, all leaders tell us it is time to build a
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strong economy. The funny thing about that shot at Ford is that Ford and Carney are almost one-to-one,
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the same politician. Ford is Mark Carney in a fat suit. They have the same approach to trying to
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fight through the trade issue. Just subsidize the heck out of your economy. Just throw money at
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random industries and just hope that they survive. Don't cut their taxes, don't deregulate,
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don't make it easier to do business. Just throw money at the sectors that you happen to like the
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most. And some areas of jurisdiction are more distinct. The feds are focused on a world-class
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defense industrial strategy. And I wish Ford showed that same ambition in building world-class
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healthcare and education instead of steadily undermining the strength of these public systems.
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Other areas of jurisdiction are shared, like the housing crisis. Stronger federal housing action has
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helped to deliver a boom in purpose bill rentals. What's next? Except, again, he is just fibbing here.
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What was it? McGregor or something like that? The guy who actually ended up something Gregor.
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Gregor Robertson. There you go. The guy who actually became the housing minister, which was
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like a double insult to Nate Erskine-Smith, was like the former mayor of Vancouver who was terrible
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on housing. But he is throwing on some really heavy rose-tinted glasses here. Because in fact,
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housing starts are down yet again in the year 2025 so far. New housing starts just keep declining
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because it's just a bad economy to operate in right now. Not only is it really hard to get a
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housing permit to build in Canada, but even if you do get it, all the stoppages and all the taxes make
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it just so cumbersome to do that people just leave the market entirely. But again, he's just complimenting
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the feds. You know, don't attack me if I run for Ontario leader and Ontario liberal leader. And then
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he's slapping at Ford because that's his real opponent now. Well, we promised a wartime effort and it's
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time to realize one. Unfortunately, Ford has failed to keep pace with other provinces and Ontario's woeful
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housing starts. They put any national progress at risk. In the face of rising youth employment, the feds should
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build on the promise of a youth climate corps to create meaningful opportunities for our next
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generation. Ford's answer? You are on your own. And when it comes to keeping our communities safe,
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the federal justice minister recently outlined action on bail reform and more, recognizing the
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need to both protect the presumption of innocence and to protect the public from repeat and violent
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offenders. But law reform is only... Yeah, they haven't done that yet though, Nate. Come on. Even
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Nate Erskine-Smith. And this is another thing he said at the time. It's a more minor comment I can't
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find. But he stood up in parliament and he even said, why are we going on summer vacation? Don't we
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need to get a bunch of stuff done? Can't we at least extend it a couple more weeks to be able to like,
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you know, hammer out some better details for our policy? Even he recognized that they weren't
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actually working very hard because they wanted to jump out of the... They want to end spring session ASAP.
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...part of the picture. Delays and an under-resourced administration of justice,
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those lie at Ford's feet. Now, as we work to address today's challenges, and there are many,
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we also need our leaders to act in the best interests of our collective future.
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At the national level, we promise to make Canada a clean energy superpower. From an east-west
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transmission grid, to approving critical mineral projects, to methane rules and a stronger industrial
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carbon price, there is a lot of work ahead to realize the opportunity of a clean transition.
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Yeah. So this guy is also a climate radical. It doesn't matter how bad the economy is right now
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and how bad the trade situation currently is and how much we should be relying on, you know, oil and
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gas in terms of both an energy source as well as an economic driver. He is just all in for clean
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energy. Again, this is a guy who wanted to pass a law, I think it was a private member's bill,
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to basically raise the price of meat because he himself is a vegan. But anyways, yeah,
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Mark Carney could easily lose this guy to a resignation to go run for the Ontario Liberal
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Leader. And this isn't just me speculating because Bonnie Crombie fell out and now he doesn't really
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like Carney that much and he seems to be insulting Ford. Nate Erskine-Smith ran for leader in 2024
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for the Liberals. The 2024 Ontario Liberal Leadership Race, he actually got pretty close.
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You stop being able to think when you start typing. Uh, that's my one big, uh, law here. Uh, no, it's
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2023. He ended up running and it was really close because even though he's a fairly young guy for
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running for politics, like I think he's in his either later thirties or he's just turned 40, a little
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bit younger than Pierre Polyev, he did quite well. On first ballot, he had 25% and Bonnie Crombie had
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42.96. On the final ballot, he had 46.59 and she had 53.40. Yeah. He had a bit of a climb mostly
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because a lot of people just did not want Bonnie Crombie. But if you got that close, you're pretty
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much the guy that people will kind of coalesce around for the next time. We've seen this many times
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before. There'll be a leadership race between two people. This happened in the UK when Liz Trust
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ended up beating, uh, Rishi Sunak. And then when they did a replay, Rishi Sunak was then kind of
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crowned by the new establishment forces as the next guy up because he came second last time. Uh, but
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which is, and then now, and then because, uh, uh, Kemi Badena came second the second time that, oh,
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she's the leader right now. It's really, it's not great. Uh, how like, it's not a good pattern to
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follow as a party. Would Nate Erskine-Smith be a good Ontario liberal leader from a pure
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political sense of how effective he would be in the leadership? I think he'd probably be better
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than Bonnie Crombie. Um, do I want him to succeed as Ontario liberal leader? I actually don't even
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know because Ontario politics is so screwed that like, what am I supposed to do? Cheer for Ford?
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He's just the same as these other people. That's the funny thing with him criticizing Ford.
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Ontario is like the Petri dish for federal policy. If the federals are putting out a bunch of
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subsidies, they're going to be heavily concentrated in Ontario and Quebec. A lot of government programs,
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all the federal infrastructure is mostly built up in Ontario. So Ontario oftentimes is walking in
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lockstep with the federal government, especially under Doug Ford. And so I don't really see there
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being any difference if Nate Erskine-Smith became the Ontario premier or even Merritt Stiles became the
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Ontario premier. This is why I tell people to go and vote for the new blue party, become a candidate,
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join the new blue party board, because on those Ford needs to be pressured from his right to either
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reform or to actually start losing seats to the new blue party so that there's actually people in the
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provincial parliament who can say conservative things consistently. That's why the one BC party
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exists in British Columbia. The, on the BC conservatives, just they'll ration you things. They'll say
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somewhat of a conservative thing here and there to keep you satiated. But when you actually look at the broad
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scope of what they say, it's like, well, this doesn't feel that much different from BC United. They'd also call it
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long wait times in the hospitals. They'd also criticize safe supply. They'd also say that, you know, maybe
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Soji went too far and we should cut around the corners, but they don't want to get rid of it. Like the BC
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conservatives don't even want to get rid of Soji anymore. This is again, why I work for one BC. But like, that's why a lot of
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these new parties end up popping up and having real utility. In New Brunswick, the provincial PC party
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was very red Tory for a long time until the People's Alliance party came around being led by Chris Austin.
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And in two elections, they actually won three seats and then two seats and then they end up merging.
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And I think Chris Austin, who I hope becomes the new, the new New Brunswick PC leader has really moved
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that party to the right. He's like, in my mind, like one of the textbook best possible leadership
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choices out in New Brunswick. So by the way, if you know, Chris Austin, show him this video. I'd love
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to fly out and help with his leadership race. I just think that he's a really good guy. He was one of
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the people who helped spark the parental rights movement across Canada because he was the one who
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was introducing the changes to policy 7, was it 713? Yeah, in order to actually require disclosure
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of kids wanting to change pronouns or identify with different names in the classrooms and having to
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notify parents on what's being taught in the classroom and all this stuff. He was one of the
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main drivers behind kicking that off. But anyways, so that should be it for me today, guys. Based on the
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current polls, if Carney loses an MP, it's not going to affect the way that parliament is really
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working right now, since they'll still have to rely on the NDP and the bloc for votes anyways,
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like they have to right now. But at least it would be a signal to maybe progressive liberals that they
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can go and vote for the NDP again, for people who were NDP voters before 2025, who voted liberal just
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to keep the conservatives out. By Nate Erskine Smith leaving, you may have that sort of, I think they
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call it new leaf liberal in Ontario, that kind of new leaf liberal federal voter may go back over to
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the NDP because they're not progressive enough. Even though, dude, the federal liberals are plenty
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progressive. They are just not, they don't have the capacity to move even further left than Justin
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Trudeau already was. And so, but these people are so, such malcontents. If you're not constantly moving
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even further in that direction, they act like you're suddenly a rightist and you're not doing enough.
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But anyways, so that truly is the end of the video. I always have these little mini rants that pop out
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of me by the end. Uh, but thank you guys for watching. Make sure to like the video,
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subscribe, leave a comment, and I will see you guys next.