00:04:49.500This is what a CBC panel at the end of the day is.
00:04:52.080None of them technically are from partisan backgrounds, so it technically gets to be a neutral panel, but we know it's not a neutral panel. Independent media websites, you know, Juno News, Rebel, the Western Standard, other independents out there, they'll be honest about the fact that their panels are full of conservative influencers, conservative, you know, think tank people, you know, Canadian taxpayer federation guys who are very conservative.
00:05:19.360of, they're not hiding it. Rosemary Barton hides it by not, by just constantly portraying this as
00:05:25.220just kind of a neutral analysis from people with insights into politics, rather than people who
00:05:29.680are going to give you a very pro-liberal perspective. I'm going to start with the
00:05:34.460Prime Minister, and then we'll pivot to Mr. Poiliev and what he was up to. It was a big,
00:05:40.320long trip, Aaron, and there appeared to be a lot of deals that were begun or signed about
00:05:47.180energy, trade, critical minerals. How important is it that the Prime Minister keep these trips up
00:05:54.560even as Dominic LeBlanc is trying to get things back on the rails with the United States?
00:06:00.500Back on the rails because they haven't been actually getting the deal to move forward.
00:06:04.680The Carney Liberals negotiating position is basically by default always stalled out. So of
00:06:11.200course Dominic LeBlanc's having to get it back on the rails. It's never been on the rails and it's
00:06:16.140not exactly Donald Trump's fault. Is he maybe a hard man to negotiate with? Yes, because he's a
00:06:20.980good negotiator. He always asks for way more than he actually wants. He pushes you, he badgers you,
00:06:26.780and he tries to get you to give him more than you were willing to when you walked into the room.
00:06:31.600And it seems like the only thing that carny liberals do is they walk into the room,
00:06:34.580then immediately turtle up, say nothing, and then leave disappointed.
00:06:38.920Yeah, I don't think there's really much of an option at this point. I think it's a bit of a
00:06:42.580reminder that the job of prime minister at this point and maybe going forward is increasingly
00:06:47.580international and uh you can't sort of treat foreign affairs and and visits to other countries
00:06:54.000as sort of a secondary uh concern obviously you know the the thing that always gets said coming
00:06:59.460out of these trips is you know it remains to be seen what the things that were signed amount to
00:07:05.380and and sort of what comes next but i think that's sort of a long-term play and you know
00:07:12.900obviously a lot of what happened this week was overshadowed by iran uh understandably and and
00:07:18.020for good reason but i think this is really you know an indication that this is kind of the way
00:07:23.380things have to work from now on that the prime minister has to spend a lot of time abroad
00:07:27.300has to spend a lot of time in in capitals you know but why the thing again this is why i hate
00:07:34.740hate the CBC. Those shows are so boring when someone says something, you just assume it must
00:07:40.640be factual because that was like sleep inducing. No, it's not required for him to go travel
00:07:47.000internationally and meet with all these foreign leaders and go to their capitals and constantly
00:07:51.720be signing these deals. The deals are mainly meaningless. The deal they signed in Japan
00:07:56.160pretty much doesn't do anything. They're all these kind of memorandums of understanding where
00:08:01.060we sign an agreement saying that maybe one day possibly we could trade a little bit more with
00:08:05.200each other have a better national security sort of like alignment later on it's like okay um we
00:08:11.900don't have a military and our economy sucks right now so what are we doing here oh guys we signed a
00:08:18.480piece of paper with someone from indonesia cool are we gonna start trading with them like 15%
00:08:24.480more okay well that doesn't make a dent in anything those would be celebratory deals if
00:08:30.320we were already doing a good job, but we're not doing the basics right. And we're supposed to
00:08:35.100congratulate Mark Carney for getting these little frill deals. Oh, wow. We're going to move our
00:08:40.340trade, like our exports with Indonesia from 2.6 billion to like 2.9 billion. It's not a bad thing
00:08:48.880to be trading more of them, obviously, but let's have, let's come on guys. Let's focus on the meat
00:08:53.900and potatoes, which is the U S trade deal. And we've even been signing deals like with China
00:08:59.680that make the U.S. deal less likely, unless you go with Polioff's plan, something I have been
00:09:04.440advocating for for around a year. You use China to get a better deal with America. You basically say,
00:09:11.480I'll tear up everything I have with China. And as long as we can have a zero tariff relationship,
00:09:16.200we're basically as close as we can get. And we as Canada, the United States and all the other
00:09:21.220Commonwealth countries with Canada can team up against China. That's what they should be doing.
00:09:26.560But they keep basically deliberately making them less attractive to the United States, weakening their negotiating position, and then using the fact that they keep weakening their own position as a justification to go trading with other countries even more that aren't actually going to be able to replace the United States.
00:09:43.520Both shoring up trade relationships, but also, you know, shoring up relationships with allies.
00:09:48.660I think it was the first time a prime minister had made a bilateral visit to Australia since 2014.
00:09:53.960you know it's almost like australia doesn't really matter all that much like we need to
00:09:59.140shore up our alliances why was anyone kicking canada out anytime soon and any other any
00:10:04.800country kicking us out of their good books it's worthless we don't need to be reaffirming these
00:10:10.260relationships we need to be lowering taxes lowering regulations you could literally not
00:10:15.540even leave the borders of canada and get a better trade deal with the united states by just severely
00:10:20.500lowering our taxes freaking the americans out that we can live without them because our economy is
00:10:25.300going to start growing like gangbusters and then they would sign something very quickly but we
00:10:29.300can't do that because the liberal party is the party of handouts and programs and they will never
00:10:34.100cut their program spending which means they need to keep taxes very high i think that's the kind
00:10:39.140of thing that you know we're probably not going to be able to go a decade without visiting australia
00:10:44.260again. This is just the way the world works and the way Canada has to act at this point.
00:10:52.020And we will talk about Iran and the government's position on that in the next hour, just so people
00:10:55.880know. But there has been, I guess, some criticism, Emily, from conservatives that now Mark Carney's
00:11:03.860doing too much of this, that he's spending too much time trying to diversify trade and not enough
00:11:08.440time trying to make sure uh the the things you know even rosemary barton is the worst propagandist
00:11:16.280because she's so obvious she literally throwing in a laugh there i guess conservatives saying that
00:11:21.480they're spending too much time diversifying trade as if it must be a hilarious notion that yes he is
00:11:27.760in fact spending too much time diversifying trade because you can't diversify away from your closest
00:11:34.660southern neighbor that has the longest land border shared between two countries on the planet yes you
00:11:41.700can't really diversify away from that i am sorry we're not going to be able to send enough hard
00:11:46.020bite potato chips to japan to offset our trade deficit or the the trade that we're losing with
00:11:52.020the united states which is a deficit but i was just not wanting to confuse people with an act
00:11:56.660what with the you know a trade deficit's an actual thing i wasn't trying to use language
00:12:01.540as if i didn't know what i was doing there why why are you so insecure why are you justifying
00:12:05.860yourself let's just get back to rosemary barton laughing at conservatives making a good point
00:12:10.340diversified that now mark carney is doing too much of this that he's spending too much time
00:12:15.140trying to diversify trade and not enough time trying to make sure uh the the things you know
00:12:20.740get on on track with the united states um i don't know dominic leblanc had this meeting so obviously
00:12:26.260there are still conversations happening on that front she's even jumping in throwing her body in
00:12:31.860front of every bullet for the liberal party well they're still they're still trying to get back on
00:12:36.820track but they think we should get this agreement back on track even though we had just implied that
00:12:41.460that's a foolish stupid person thing to try and do i despise the way rosemary barton does television
00:12:49.060Yes, and Pierre Poirier is abroad himself, or was abroad himself. So I hear the concern. I think the concern is more, and I know we're going to get back to this later, but I think the concern is the executive style leadership of Mark Carney, where it seems like him and maybe one or two close advisors are just taking foreign policy positions from the depth of their brains, and then everybody else learns about it.
00:13:16.320And him being so far away from Parliament makes it even more of an interesting position for Canadian democracy where Canadian media are not even privy to interviewing the Prime Minister himself while he's making really important speeches and policy conversations abroad.
00:13:34.220That being said, this week is also hard for him to politically score points because there
00:13:57.360The United States and Israel are okay to attack the Islamic dictatorship, killing tens of thousands of their own people, as well as spreading terrorism around the Middle East and the rest of the world.
00:14:10.840And now he is on position number five or six.
00:14:13.640He keeps flip-flopping back and forth on whether he's just on side with the U.S. and Israel or he's going to cry tears of sadness over the Ayatollah of Iran dying and that this wasn't following international law.
00:14:27.740He can't figure out what his position is.
00:20:09.140talking about lowering immigration when he's on something like the Trigonometry podcast,
00:20:15.100talking, you know, much more aggressively about how Canada needs to align against China, Russia,
00:20:21.000and Iran. And we need to, it's just, it's a good look, because he sounds more serious,
00:20:27.120you know, actually trying to sell Canada rather than oppose the US, which is really what Carney's
00:20:33.260trips looked more like. He's not actually trying to benefit Canada as much as thumb his nose at
00:20:37.840the United States. Basically, Kirapali is saying, you can have both, it turns out. But now, I want
00:20:44.740to move on to the polling, and I want to go over this again to talk about the nuances between good
00:20:51.680polling, okay polling, and propaganda polls. Now, the one we're looking at right now is one I would
00:20:57.920call an okay poll. I do not agree with the result, because I find that Leger tends to have a very
00:21:04.480liberal sampling bias. They are not very good at sort of like counteracting what you would call a
00:21:10.600response bias. A response bias is the whole idea that when you do a poll, you need to figure out
00:21:18.020who's going to take the poll. And a response bias is you oversampling people from specific areas or
00:21:26.380who are openly partisan on one side that ends up giving a completely like a bad picture of what
00:21:32.540the country actually looks like. So the problem right now is we have pollsters like Leger, who I
00:21:38.400do not think are correcting for the fact that right now, liberals are far more likely to be
00:21:44.460answering polls than conservatives, especially urban liberals compared to conservatives in rural
00:21:50.040areas. We have seen this in previous polls, when they showed that the Toronto samples in many of
00:21:55.200these polls have these absurd liberal leads of like plus 50 points, leads that don't even make
00:22:00.660sense. Like you pulled 300 people in Toronto and like 250 of them are voting liberal. That's not
00:22:06.240even, that's not accurate at all. It's basically saying no one's voting NDP, barely anyone's
00:22:11.920voting conservative, nobody's voting Green Party, when Toronto tends to have more diversity on who
00:22:17.200votes for the left-wing parties. And then the conservatives usually hang in there, actually
00:22:21.280like this poll shows nationally, but usually the conservatives can pull off 35% in Toronto. Yeah,
00:22:27.240they're not winning anything because the Liberals are at like 50 or something like that, but they,
00:22:32.100you know, they're a contender in the area in terms of at least being able to bring in quite a few
00:22:36.400votes. This isn't Montreal where the Conservatives are only getting 8%. This is why Leger really needs
00:22:42.300to be going back to the chalkboard and figuring out how they can get more accurate samples.
00:22:47.960The Liberals are not leading by 14 points right now, especially the NDP and the Bloc. I don't
00:22:54.120think the NDP are going to underperform how they did last election. I think as long as they get
00:22:58.880rid of Jagmeet Singh and they have a more aggressive leader, they are going to do better.
00:23:02.960The Bloc Quebecois being at 5% makes no sense. The Parti Quebecois in Quebec provincially is
00:23:09.720leading the pack right now, and it's a big field. There's like five or six competitive parties in
00:23:15.760Quebec, and the Bloc Quebecois or the Parti Quebecois are leading like 12 points. They are
00:23:21.240massively ahead i am sorry the bloc are not only at five percent which would have them like hitting
00:23:27.060like 25 percent 23 percent in quebec nationally like five percent translates to that uh because
00:23:34.420obviously the bloc only running quebec five percent in quebec is like 25 percent the bloc
00:23:40.560is probably more like at seven or eight percent they're not going to underperform how they did
00:23:45.620last election, which was around 6%, they're only going to go up because the Quebec nationalist
00:23:52.280forces are on the rise right now. That doesn't mean they're going to separate, but, you know,
00:23:57.500very aggressive Quebec nationalists are, in fact, doing very well. You're not going to see the
00:24:03.200bloc doing worse than they did last election. This is how I would say you evaluate a poll.
00:24:09.860You don't just say, I like that result, it's wrong. The liberals are ahead. They are not 14
00:24:14.720points ahead. But now I want to show you what I would call a propaganda poll. Like a good pollster
00:24:21.060right now was actually, I would say, Nanos has moved from okay to good. Previously, they were
00:24:25.880just okay because they were really not handling their liberal response bias in the summer, and
00:24:30.560they were the ones showing these insane plus 12 results for the liberals back when they were
00:24:35.340probably leading by, but not by nearly that much. Spark Insight is literally run by a liberal
00:24:42.360advocate, like a liberal propagandist runs it, somebody who loves the liberals, hates the
00:24:47.040conservatives, and that is why you're seeing them put out polls like this. 46% liberal, 31%
00:24:54.360conservative, NDP 10, other 8, block 5. Okay, starting back off, block is not at 5, they're
00:25:01.940probably at 6 or 7, at least 6, probably 7 or 8. Conservatives, do you think that the conservatives
00:25:09.320have somehow lost 25% of the supporters they had last election. You would need to have your leader
00:25:16.300hit someone with their car and not apologize to get that bad in the polls. What has Carney done
00:25:23.840to deserve not only maintaining everything he had, but growing at the same time the MVP was also
00:25:29.220growing? No, he's not leading the conservatives by 15%. This is a propaganda poll, and I guarantee
00:25:38.040you what people like Bruce Anderson right now, who runs Spark Insight, or Frank Graves, who runs
00:25:44.180Ecos, they want conservatives to be demoralized. Now, that doesn't mean they're just typing into
00:25:50.040an Excel spreadsheet what they want the numbers to be. But I don't think they are deliberate. I
00:25:54.160think they are deliberately doing a bad job. They collect up a bunch of responses. They don't care
00:25:58.940if they're all coming from urban areas. They don't care that their samples are completely
00:26:03.700full of partisan liberals they just release the numbers and you have to deal with it i need to
00:26:09.080tell you guys something do you know that in march this is before carney is even sworn in
00:26:15.020as the liberal party leader he had won the liberal party leadership but this is before he was sworn
00:26:20.520in he was literally at the ecos on march 13th said the liberals were leading by 17.7 points
00:26:29.080no they were not the ecos has this stupid reputation that oh my goodness they predict
00:26:35.380trends before they happen i'm sorry you could say that that means nothing if the if frank
00:26:42.480grave said the liberals actually are going to win 100 of the vote in the next election they're
00:26:46.300going to win and then the liberals win by like a few a couple points and they like get a minority
00:26:52.180government he can go out there and say well i was right they won didn't they you didn't predict
00:26:56.360crap, Frank. You predicted nothing. This poll is worth nothing. Insiders in Ottawa probably
00:27:03.800are telling me that the Conservatives are behind, yes, but they're behind by low single digits,
00:27:11.200behind by four points, five points, six points. Now, that's a substantial loss. If the Conservatives
00:27:17.180lost the federal election by 6%, they would get blown out in terms of the seat count,
00:27:21.940Because as we become more of a two-party country, rather than a party country with the NDP clocking at 18%, the Bloc getting nine, and the Green Party getting five, it means that a 6% difference between Conservatives and Liberals leads to a massive difference in seat counts.
00:27:40.580Because it's pretty much just one or the other in every single riding.
00:27:44.160There's no NDP grabs this riding and the Greens grab that one, the Bloc grab that one.
00:27:48.900It's becoming more and more outside of Quebec, liberal or conservative.
00:27:52.820So if the liberals nationally are winning by six points,
00:27:55.620that means they're probably getting like 210 seats.
00:27:59.760But there's a difference between leading by five, leading by six, and leading by 15.
00:28:06.780Guys, even Trudeau wasn't even getting beaten that badly in 2024.
00:28:12.740Yeah, there were some polls showing him being beaten by 25,
00:28:15.240But the more reasonable pollsters at the time were showing him being beaten by like 13, 14, sometimes you get a 17.
00:28:22.520And he was like the most hated man in the world for Canadians.
00:28:26.080He was being beaten by Donald Trump in terms of approval.
00:28:29.440And Canadians were designed from birth to hate Donald Trump in this country, even before they knew who he was.
00:28:35.260and somehow we're all supposed to assume that polyev is more hated than justin trudeau now
00:28:41.560or as equally hated as as trudeau circa like july 2024 it just ain't happening people this
00:28:50.900is meant to make you think well i'm not going to donate to the conservatives i'm not telling you
00:28:55.860to donate to them do whatever you want i'm just saying that this is meant to go to the big donors
00:28:59.940and have the next fundraising meeting they have with polyev or any conservative mp and they say
00:29:05.040I'd love to give you $1,000, man, but you guys are losing by 15 points, Spark Insight told me.
00:29:11.400They're trying to go to people and say, what's the point of going to that rally? What's the point
00:29:15.020of going and volunteering? You're losing by 15 points. The funny thing is these same propaganda
00:29:20.200pollsters were the ones when Trudeau was getting thrown out of the Liberal Party that were showing
00:29:25.180the Liberals losing by 25 points. I can guarantee you Trudeau was never losing by 25 points. That's
00:29:30.920like impossible. There are so many default liberal voters, they're never going to do that badly in an
00:29:35.220election. But it's funny that the pollsters that are showing the liberals way up now were the ones
00:29:40.160showing the most aggressive leads for the conservatives when the liberal insiders wanted
00:29:44.640Trudeau out. So when they want Trudeau out, the propaganda firms, which are only a few of them,
00:29:49.960most of them are good or okay. But the propaganda firms, they went into high gear to getting Trudeau
00:29:55.800out because they needed him out. So they need as many bad polls as possible. And then as soon as
00:30:00.320Trudeau's out and Carney wins, then the same propaganda pollster, ECOS, that showed plus 25
00:30:06.520conservative, suddenly swaps us now plus 17 liberal. No, not how it works. And ECOS is like,
00:30:13.460oh, well, we were pretty accurate last election. Their last poll said that the liberals were going
00:30:17.100to win by six points. That would have been majority. It didn't even come close to that.
00:30:21.080They won by a couple points and then got a minority government. Like two weeks before
00:30:25.420the election they were predicting an insane like nine point lead and before that 14 points it's
00:30:31.420called herding what they do is that they give up these insane propaganda numbers to get the people
00:30:37.560donating to the liberal party getting people jumping on the bandwagon to get conservatives
00:30:42.140feeling demoralized and then what they do is they heard the numbers at the end to make it look a
00:30:47.900little better because they don't want to show they don't want to come into the next election
00:30:51.540like being 12 points off the real result they want to get at least somewhat in the conversation
00:30:57.800i think frank graves genuinely thought the liberals were going to do better so he thought
00:31:02.500his plus six was like reasonable when it was actually like way outside the margin of error
00:31:07.020because the typical margin of error is two points you know you want to say liberals are going to get
00:31:11.74041 and they get like 42 and a half or conservatives are going to get 39 and they get 41 that's
00:31:17.800reasonable. Frank is six and a half points outside the margin or so, or like he's four
00:31:24.660points outside the margin. He is double what the liberals got, and he actually underrated what the
00:31:30.580liberals got. So no, he's not accurate. He sucks at his job. He is just somebody putting out
00:31:36.500terrible poll after terrible poll, hoping that the liberals win and the person he hates the most
00:31:42.600in this world, Pirapaliev loses. Anyways, so that was that, and now I want to get over to some liberal
00:31:49.380propaganda. And so the liberals are really, I think, running out of stuff to do. I think that
00:31:56.640they have now, it doesn't mean, again, they're not leading, and I'm predicting some big turnaround
00:32:00.540here, but their stuff is getting stale. We have right here the liberals saying, we're strengthening
00:32:05.900our partnerships abroad to diversify our trade, build a more resilient economy, and create high
00:32:10.560paying careers for canadians and it shows right here in tokyo carney signs agreement with japanese
00:32:15.200counterpart to expand trade and defense ties okay what did we actually agree to nothing
00:32:23.040we're not actually doing anything here another one right here mark carney says today in sydney
00:32:29.540canadians and australian investment leaders announced a new agreement that will make it
00:32:33.280easier to invest between our countries that means more opportunities for our businesses more growth
00:32:38.720for our economy and higher paying careers for Canadian workers.
00:34:53.020That's what Mark Carney is doing right now, of trying to be the, you know, the sober-minded, clear-eyed truth-teller about the, you know, he's the seer of how everything is going on in the world right now.
00:35:05.120At some point, this is going to get old, as things are not actually happening.
00:35:09.960He keeps talking about how we are diversifying our trade and how we're, like, you know, dealing with the world as it is.
00:35:15.700But we won't move a muscle to try and deal with America as it is.
00:35:20.820We keep basically putting it off like it's the broccoli we don't want to eat.