It's election day in Canada and I'm here to remind you that you need to vote for Mark Carney. I also talk about why you should vote for someone based on their resume, and why you shouldn't vote for them based on who you think they're going to do the right thing.
00:00:00.000Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. Well, it's election day in Canada, and I expect if you're over the age of 18, please go out and vote. I don't care if you're riding safe conservative. I don't care if you're riding a safe liberal. Please just vote. It helps the general momentum of the country.
00:00:18.060Because this entire election is going to be decided by turnout. The election is a complete squeaker. Most of the polls that I trust are all within the margin of error. Either they show the liberals a couple points up, or if they actually switch the question to who's your neighbor voting for, the conservatives are a little bit up. So make sure you turn out and vote.
00:00:37.900Okay, now on to some normal stuff I usually talk about. I forgot to cover this video yesterday, and it just annoys me to no end, because this guy here, he's from the publication The Economist, and I've always known The Economist has leaned left, but it's obnoxious to me when someone comes on to endorse Mark Carney on behalf of the publication, and doesn't even really have a good excuse cooked up for why he's good.
00:01:06.860It's like, oh, Mark Carney's done things and seen stuff, and you should vote for him, I suppose.
00:01:12.200So this liberal posting says, The Economist endorses Mark Carney to build our economy and lead Canada through this economic crisis, which is hilarious because the platform he is running on is just Justin Trudeau's platform, with all of Justin Trudeau's instances of his name replaced by Mark Carney.
00:01:31.720Who was advising on it for five years? Literally. Does no one remember this stuff?
00:01:56.180It's been five years of the man advising our country on the economy, on financial issues, and we are now in the place where we have per capita incomes falling each and every financial quarter, I believe, for over two years now.
00:02:13.440But he's got the background. He's got the connections to France. He's got the connections to the UK. You have to vote for him because his resume tells you to.
00:02:23.540If you vote for somebody based on their resume, leave. Just leave. Vote for someone because they're going to do the right thing.
00:02:34.780Obviously, trustworthiness plays into that, too. If someone promises you the world, you can't just vote for them if you know they're not actually going to follow through if you really evaluate their character.
00:02:46.440But my goodness, Mark Carney could screw up anything, and he would still have people say, Well, he's an economist. You don't want an economist to be running our economy? No, not him.
00:02:55.760And so who better to handle that than a serious economist who has always a serious one, not just a normal one, surged and become incredibly popular in Canada in just a few short months. So it wasn't really much of a question for us.
00:03:12.640So vote for him because he's an economist. And he's popular. That doesn't make any sense to me. So he's getting rewarded because he happens to be up in the polls. So let's bandwagon, I suppose.
00:03:27.000I want to highlight this poll that actually came out yesterday. And I thought it was really interesting because I'll have to do a bit of an explainer.
00:03:34.840This is the great Canadian bagel. I sometimes appear on his YouTube channel on the bagel cast, but he does his own polls, and he also does polling analysis based on the numbers that the mainstream pollsters put out.
00:03:48.260But in many of the past elections, he has actually been more accurate than the mainstream pollsters with his own homebrew style of gathering respondents for his polls.
00:03:58.780So he'll kind of like release links to his Google Sheets forms for his polls, just kind of all over the Internet, gets different creators of different political stripes to release the polls into their communities, but doesn't promote it too much.
00:04:12.560He's not trying to be partisan, even though I know that Chris, the bagel guy, he is conservative, but for the point of his polling, he's not just going to conservative creators to promote it because obviously you get a skewed result.
00:04:43.440And even then, I really doubt the PPC is going to be getting 2.8%. They're not even running candidates in over two-thirds of the ridings.
00:04:54.140I might even make a little bit of a pit stop in this video just to talk about this. I find it so obnoxious how many people who are voting PPC, who are hardcores, think that they're, like, standing up for, like, truth and principle by doing it.
00:05:09.780But you're not, because Bernier and the PPC HQ isn't even trying to build a real party.
00:05:16.620You are donating and working for something that might not even exist in two months if Bernier gets bored.
00:05:22.580So I always find it obnoxious where people are like, well, the Conservatives didn't win my vote, so I'm not going to vote for them.
00:05:29.260And I understand the concept. The party has to win your vote. They have to convince you.
00:05:33.420But there is also the type of person who votes PPC and, frankly, on the left, green, who don't want their votes won.
00:05:39.920They want to always be a little bit too good to vote for the mainstream party.
00:05:43.960I voted for PPC in 2021 because there was a clear, motivating reason to.
00:05:49.500O'Toole was terrible on so many issues, including lockdowns and mandates.
00:05:53.840And so I voted PPC to demonstrate what I wanted the Conservative Party to do better on.
00:06:00.180Since then, Polioff has actually done pretty much everything that the standard PPC member would have wanted from the Conservatives to come back.
00:06:07.180But you still get people saying, well, they're globalists. Well, they're part of the Uniparty.
00:06:11.660And nothing would change anyways if they got in.
00:06:14.440Well, isn't it convenient that you vote for the party that's not going to get in at all?
00:06:18.520And then when the Conservatives fail, you're like, well, they wouldn't have gotten in anyways.
00:06:23.120Or if they did get in, they would have just failed anyways.
00:06:26.040It's like, cool. Well, you didn't give them a chance to fail.
00:06:29.400So I guess we're just going to take your word for it, the person who trusts Bernier to put together a real party.
00:06:35.160But I just want to bring up the 338 simulator for these bagel numbers.
00:06:41.420Again, Chris, the great Canadian bagel, in the Saskatchewan election, where all of the pollsters missed,
00:06:48.180they all thought the Saskatchewan NDP was going to win the popular vote by 2 to 5 percent.
00:06:53.220And the Saskatchewan party won by 11.9 percent.
00:06:56.600I believe his homebrew poll had it at a plus 8, plus 10 Saskatchewan party, like a popular vote march.
00:07:04.420So he was not only actually pretty accurate, he was way more accurate than the mainstream pollsters just because of his style polling.
00:07:11.940He actually collects postal codes to make sure that he's not just getting a bunch of people in urban areas answering it.
00:07:17.980And he can weight those people up and down if need be.
00:07:21.260So now let's bring up the simulator and I'll start plugging in the values that he has here.
00:07:25.680So 37.2 percent for the Liberals nationally.
00:07:29.360I don't even think I can go down that far.