The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Conservatives can WIN! Canada's election comes down to Turnout!

00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. Well, it's election day in Canada, and I expect if you're over the age of 18, please go out and vote. I don't care if you're riding safe conservative. I don't care if you're riding a safe liberal. Please just vote. It helps the general momentum of the country.

00:00:18.060 Because this entire election is going to be decided by turnout. The election is a complete squeaker. Most of the polls that I trust are all within the margin of error. Either they show the liberals a couple points up, or if they actually switch the question to who's your neighbor voting for, the conservatives are a little bit up. So make sure you turn out and vote.

00:00:37.900 Okay, now on to some normal stuff I usually talk about. I forgot to cover this video yesterday, and it just annoys me to no end, because this guy here, he's from the publication The Economist, and I've always known The Economist has leaned left, but it's obnoxious to me when someone comes on to endorse Mark Carney on behalf of the publication, and doesn't even really have a good excuse cooked up for why he's good.

00:01:06.860 It's like, oh, Mark Carney's done things and seen stuff, and you should vote for him, I suppose.

00:01:12.200 So this liberal posting says, The Economist endorses Mark Carney to build our economy and lead Canada through this economic crisis, which is hilarious because the platform he is running on is just Justin Trudeau's platform, with all of Justin Trudeau's instances of his name replaced by Mark Carney.

00:01:30.200 So, let's check this out.

00:01:31.720 Who was advising on it for five years? Literally. Does no one remember this stuff?

00:01:56.180 It's been five years of the man advising our country on the economy, on financial issues, and we are now in the place where we have per capita incomes falling each and every financial quarter, I believe, for over two years now.

00:02:13.440 But he's got the background. He's got the connections to France. He's got the connections to the UK. You have to vote for him because his resume tells you to.

00:02:23.540 If you vote for somebody based on their resume, leave. Just leave. Vote for someone because they're going to do the right thing.

00:02:34.780 Obviously, trustworthiness plays into that, too. If someone promises you the world, you can't just vote for them if you know they're not actually going to follow through if you really evaluate their character.

00:02:46.440 But my goodness, Mark Carney could screw up anything, and he would still have people say, Well, he's an economist. You don't want an economist to be running our economy? No, not him.

00:02:55.760 And so who better to handle that than a serious economist who has always a serious one, not just a normal one, surged and become incredibly popular in Canada in just a few short months. So it wasn't really much of a question for us.

00:03:12.640 So vote for him because he's an economist. And he's popular. That doesn't make any sense to me. So he's getting rewarded because he happens to be up in the polls. So let's bandwagon, I suppose.

00:03:27.000 I want to highlight this poll that actually came out yesterday. And I thought it was really interesting because I'll have to do a bit of an explainer.

00:03:34.840 This is the great Canadian bagel. I sometimes appear on his YouTube channel on the bagel cast, but he does his own polls, and he also does polling analysis based on the numbers that the mainstream pollsters put out.

00:03:48.260 But in many of the past elections, he has actually been more accurate than the mainstream pollsters with his own homebrew style of gathering respondents for his polls.

00:03:58.780 So he'll kind of like release links to his Google Sheets forms for his polls, just kind of all over the Internet, gets different creators of different political stripes to release the polls into their communities, but doesn't promote it too much.

00:04:12.560 He's not trying to be partisan, even though I know that Chris, the bagel guy, he is conservative, but for the point of his polling, he's not just going to conservative creators to promote it because obviously you get a skewed result.

00:04:24.140 And his final result, with over 2,200 respondents, is 40.7% conservative, 37.2% liberal, 9.4% NDP, 2.2% green, 6.8% Bloc Québécois, and 2.8% PPC.

00:04:43.440 And even then, I really doubt the PPC is going to be getting 2.8%. They're not even running candidates in over two-thirds of the ridings.

00:04:54.140 I might even make a little bit of a pit stop in this video just to talk about this. I find it so obnoxious how many people who are voting PPC, who are hardcores, think that they're, like, standing up for, like, truth and principle by doing it.

00:05:09.780 But you're not, because Bernier and the PPC HQ isn't even trying to build a real party.

00:05:16.620 You are donating and working for something that might not even exist in two months if Bernier gets bored.

00:05:22.580 So I always find it obnoxious where people are like, well, the Conservatives didn't win my vote, so I'm not going to vote for them.

00:05:29.260 And I understand the concept. The party has to win your vote. They have to convince you.

00:05:33.420 But there is also the type of person who votes PPC and, frankly, on the left, green, who don't want their votes won.

00:05:39.920 They want to always be a little bit too good to vote for the mainstream party.

00:05:43.960 I voted for PPC in 2021 because there was a clear, motivating reason to.

00:05:49.500 O'Toole was terrible on so many issues, including lockdowns and mandates.

00:05:53.840 And so I voted PPC to demonstrate what I wanted the Conservative Party to do better on.

00:06:00.180 Since then, Polioff has actually done pretty much everything that the standard PPC member would have wanted from the Conservatives to come back.

00:06:07.180 But you still get people saying, well, they're globalists. Well, they're part of the Uniparty.

00:06:11.660 And nothing would change anyways if they got in.

00:06:14.440 Well, isn't it convenient that you vote for the party that's not going to get in at all?

00:06:18.520 And then when the Conservatives fail, you're like, well, they wouldn't have gotten in anyways.

00:06:23.120 Or if they did get in, they would have just failed anyways.

00:06:26.040 It's like, cool. Well, you didn't give them a chance to fail.

00:06:29.400 So I guess we're just going to take your word for it, the person who trusts Bernier to put together a real party.

00:06:35.160 But I just want to bring up the 338 simulator for these bagel numbers.

00:06:41.420 Again, Chris, the great Canadian bagel, in the Saskatchewan election, where all of the pollsters missed,

00:06:48.180 they all thought the Saskatchewan NDP was going to win the popular vote by 2 to 5 percent.

00:06:53.220 And the Saskatchewan party won by 11.9 percent.

00:06:56.600 I believe his homebrew poll had it at a plus 8, plus 10 Saskatchewan party, like a popular vote march.

00:07:04.420 So he was not only actually pretty accurate, he was way more accurate than the mainstream pollsters just because of his style polling.

00:07:11.940 He actually collects postal codes to make sure that he's not just getting a bunch of people in urban areas answering it.

00:07:17.980 And he can weight those people up and down if need be.

00:07:21.260 So now let's bring up the simulator and I'll start plugging in the values that he has here.

00:07:25.680 So 37.2 percent for the Liberals nationally.

00:07:29.360 I don't even think I can go down that far.

00:07:31.200 Let's just give them 39. 0.99

00:07:33.080 We can go up to about 40.

00:07:35.200 Let's just give the Conservatives a little less because I can't give the Liberals as little as this poll gives them.

00:07:42.520 9.4 percent for the NDP.

00:07:44.740 We are going to get 1.7 percent for the Greens.

00:07:49.940 It's already there.

00:07:51.040 And we give the Block 6.8.

00:07:53.480 And do we give them, do we give it to them?

00:07:57.720 Okay, let's pretend.

00:07:58.820 Let's pretend along with the PPC and that they get 2.8 percent of the vote.

00:08:02.420 What does this result in?

00:08:04.080 Conservative minority of literally just one seat shy of a majority.

00:08:08.000 1.21 to 1.71, 15 NDP, 1 Green, 35 Bloc Québécois.

00:08:14.020 Now, I'm going to say there is a good chance that this does not happen, obviously.

00:08:18.340 I would still say that Chris is a better pollster than the majority.

00:08:22.980 At the same time, the reason this could not happen is that if people don't turn out, it's not going to happen.

00:08:28.400 So make sure if you're watching this video and you're spending time with Wyatt instead of voting, go vote.

00:08:34.060 Finish the video later.

00:08:35.020 Go vote.

00:08:35.320 Again, it doesn't matter what riding you're in, go vote.

00:08:39.400 Because you never know.

00:08:40.880 People say certain ridings are safe, and they are absolutely not.

00:08:44.720 This is the Ottawa area that I have doorknocked not that long ago.

00:08:48.540 Panetta is in play.

00:08:49.940 Ottawa West Nepean is in play.

00:08:51.760 Nepean is in play.

00:08:53.040 Barhaven is in play.

00:08:54.620 Every single riding in the Ottawa area outside of Ottawa Centre and the super downtown urban ridings

00:08:59.820 could technically be won by the Conservatives if turnout goes the right way

00:09:04.420 and if support on the ground is good.

00:09:06.000 And when I say it's a turnout election, I mean that insofar as no party is truly leading incredible polls

00:09:13.800 by the margin where even if their people were kind of lazy and didn't show up, they'd still win.

00:09:18.860 This is an election where if the Liberals just decide, you know, we've won, I've seen the polls,

00:09:24.240 we're leading by 12 points in ECOS, and they don't show up, they could lose tons of their ridings.

00:09:29.720 So yeah, it's basically all about turnout.

00:09:31.980 It's about getting young people out.

00:09:33.380 So if you're a parent, make sure your younger kids end up turning out. 0.89

00:09:38.060 So I need to turn to the PPC a little bit here.

00:09:42.100 My goodness, I have never seen a party where, despite talking about how principled that we,

00:09:48.440 how we should value principled, absolutely does not value humbleness.

00:09:53.200 I love this lady, Patricia Collin here, who has run, I think, three times,

00:09:58.760 both in 2019, 2021, and then the by-election in Durham.

00:10:02.900 Constantly losing and often losing percentage of the vote, but she keeps going for it. 0.62

00:10:08.100 And she'll post stuff like this.

00:10:09.900 This election outcome would save Canada.

00:10:11.920 This was posted back in early January, but she does like, oh, 47% Conservative,

00:10:16.460 and then she X's out these two and then throws in 41 for the Bloc Québécois.

00:10:21.940 No.

00:10:23.280 No, that's not going to happen.

00:10:26.080 They keep, it's wish casting.

00:10:28.680 It's the wish casting party.

00:10:30.140 Here's a post from this PPC candidate.

00:10:33.340 They say, choosing the lesser of two evils is not the solution.

00:10:37.600 Sorry, have you established that the Conservatives are one of the evils in this race?

00:10:41.660 Pierre Polyev fumbled a 20-point lead because he was unable to differentiate himself from

00:10:47.100 Carney and offer Canadians a real Conservative alternative.

00:10:51.080 I would say that Conservative Party HQ, in certain ways, went too soft, and they were a

00:10:55.820 little bit too passive.

00:10:57.160 And if they had picked candidates in ridings ahead of time, they wouldn't be scrambling

00:11:01.160 when the election was called.

00:11:03.320 But I wouldn't say that they're not different than the Liberals.

00:11:06.500 They are definitely different than the Liberals.

00:11:09.500 They say, this person, Haley here, says, to name a few, Polyev endorses mass immigration.

00:11:15.420 No, he doesn't.

00:11:15.880 He actually wants to lower it by another 100,000.

00:11:17.920 I would like their limit to be lowered even more, but to say that he is in favor of mass

00:11:23.300 immigration is patently absurd. 1.00

00:11:26.000 He is also in favor of multiculturalism.

00:11:29.480 Inherently, it's not terrible.

00:11:30.880 I understand the problem with multiculturalism, but I think that's a bit of a hyperbolic thing 0.99

00:11:35.000 to say that he's, like, in favor of, like, he's in favor of replacing Canadian culture

00:11:39.740 with, like, I don't know, he wants Islamism to rule.

00:11:44.180 He says, often engaging in symbolic gestures like wearing costumes and speaking foreign languages.

00:11:49.320 That's, like, literally 99% of politicians, including Maxime Bernier.

00:11:53.880 His party unanimously supported Bill C-4.

00:11:56.160 Yes, because O'Toole was going to kick people out of the party if they didn't vote for it.

00:12:00.800 Which criminalized parents opposing their child's gender transition.

00:12:03.540 Like the Liberals, Polyev commits to aiding Ukraine.

00:12:06.080 That's not inherently bad.

00:12:07.820 I don't like the aid we give Ukraine because we're just giving the Chinese government cash

00:12:12.260 to produce drones for Ukraine.

00:12:14.220 So we're paying a Russian ally, Canadian taxpayer dollars, to go send stuff that is not compromised

00:12:21.320 to Ukraine.

00:12:22.060 It's stupid.

00:12:22.580 We should be just giving them old ammunition and armor, like tanks, but we don't have any

00:12:28.500 of that, so we don't have anything useful to give them.

00:12:30.500 That's my problem with Ukraine aid.

00:12:31.760 We are sending them billions of dollars of, like, kind of slightly useful logistical aid,

00:12:36.880 but it's never actually, like, lethal equipment that they need.

00:12:41.420 And they say, continue tariff disputes.

00:12:43.860 What is Bernier going to do that's going to stop tariff disputes?

00:12:47.140 At some point, there's a dispute, because America won there to be a dispute, and now

00:12:52.080 we have to solve it.

00:12:53.220 It's not like a Bernier was there.

00:12:54.520 There would just be no disputes.

00:12:56.500 Upholding Paris Accord net zero targets.

00:12:58.800 No, they're not doing that.

00:13:00.440 Will not repeal Trudeau's costly social programs hindering our provincial autonomy or new laws

00:13:05.580 restricting gun ownership.

00:13:06.540 He actually is.

00:13:07.500 They've been a bit coy about it, but they are definitely going to be trying to limit

00:13:12.600 or partially eliminate things like dental care and the pharma care, because it's been

00:13:16.900 a disaster of a program and all of the stupid housing programs.

00:13:20.860 But yeah, I can end it here, but I have found that the terminally online PPC person, especially

00:13:28.540 the candidates, are often the people who don't actually know the political record very well.

00:13:34.140 They'll say, oh, all the conservatives vote for C4.

00:13:36.420 Okay, yeah, O'Toole would kick them out if they didn't.

00:13:40.840 And you've got to realize that biding your time sometimes is smart, because what are you

00:13:46.920 going to do, get your throat cut over Bill C4, get thrown out of office, and nobody even

00:13:51.480 remembers anything that you end up doing, and it didn't shift votes here or there against

00:13:55.860 what O'Toole was doing?

00:13:58.080 Later, the entire caucus voted in favor of a pro-life bill to protect pregnant women by upgrading

00:14:05.060 sentencing for people who assault or murder pregnant women.

00:14:08.540 Every single one of them voted in favor of it.

00:14:10.640 It's almost like things change.

00:14:12.800 Or we could go back to Bernier, who went to the WEF himself and was a big supporter of

00:14:17.800 full free trade and integration with China.

00:14:20.580 That was a thing.

00:14:21.900 Did he make a mistake?

00:14:23.040 And I'm okay with saying, oh, it's just a mistake.

00:14:25.200 Sure.

00:14:25.420 But the thing is, they only consider it a mistake if Bernier does it.

00:14:30.020 If another conservative does it, then it is a deep character flaw that's never going to

00:14:34.400 change.

00:14:35.060 And I find that obnoxious.

00:14:37.060 Now, here's another PPC post I just want to go over today.

00:14:40.560 And it's this.

00:14:42.240 Oh, do we have the other Patricia Collins video?

00:14:44.840 I'm not sure if I do.

00:14:47.120 Oh, I do.

00:14:48.200 We have this Patricia Collins video where it's almost like trying to be like a candid camera

00:14:52.420 thing, even though she's clearly mic'd up and this is like a professional campaign video 0.96

00:14:56.760 where she's like earnestly answering the question of why can't we trust pure Polyev?

00:15:01.340 It's not Polyev.

00:15:02.300 Polyev said he wants to stop the woke.

00:15:04.500 Oh, my goodness.

00:15:05.140 It's Greg Wycliffe filming it.

00:15:06.700 Oh, my goodness.

00:15:08.280 If it was only if it was it was already embarrassing.

00:15:12.680 And now you have Greg Wycliffe filming the video.

00:15:15.940 That's what Polyev said.

00:15:17.600 Do you really trust Polyev?

00:15:19.060 I mean, his words are like veneer.

00:15:22.420 They're paper thin.

00:15:23.920 He didn't stand.

00:15:24.540 He's actually become more conservative since the leadership election.

00:15:27.940 In the leadership, he never took on gender theory.

00:15:30.160 He took it on since then.

00:15:32.160 He's done a lot of he has hardened his positions on a lot of things since the leadership election.

00:15:37.860 He was not even talking about getting rid of the industrial carbon tax during the leadership.

00:15:41.820 Now he is.

00:15:43.140 It's been quite good.

00:15:44.300 He even has been more open about wanting to cut certain things in government, which has

00:15:48.180 been great.

00:15:49.200 But they will never give him credit.

00:15:50.500 And with peaceful processors during COVID.

00:15:53.720 He was literally at the Freedom Convoy talking to people in support of them.

00:15:59.300 He opposed lockdowns.

00:16:00.780 He stayed silent on the mandates, the lockdowns.

00:16:03.420 No, he didn't.

00:16:04.440 Harm of the shots, the vaccine injured.

00:16:07.020 Why weren't Canadians vaccinated in January and February?

00:16:09.720 Like, yeah, that was like the position of 95 percent of people talking about how they were

00:16:15.600 like slow rolling out vaccines.

00:16:17.880 At the same time, he opposed mandates used to supporting constituents who wanted it faster.

00:16:23.520 Everyone else.

00:16:24.260 He's been encouraging these policies of mass unsustainable immigration.

00:16:28.320 No, he hasn't.

00:16:29.520 With direct flights from India.

00:16:31.500 And we will bring a direct flight to Amitsar.

00:16:34.620 By the way, that is not supporting mass immigration.

00:16:38.880 I actually think it's a silly policy because it's something that certain people have suggested

00:16:44.600 to Paulio that he say.

00:16:46.140 No one actually cares about direct flights to Amitsar, which is like the capital Punjab.

00:16:50.280 Um, that's not mass immigration.

00:16:52.700 That's basically to say you can fly faster there.

00:16:55.160 That is it.

00:16:56.260 There's that's not mass immigration.

00:16:57.960 And if you think that's mass immigration, you're grasping.

00:17:00.580 And I don't see him standing up against woke ideologies at all.

00:17:04.260 He does.

00:17:04.900 Patricia does not have an Internet connection.

00:17:07.040 He does all the time.

00:17:08.620 He still is shy about saying there's only two sexes.

00:17:11.620 He said it on an interview multiple times, even to the point where he was kind of giggling

00:17:16.400 and laughing at the interviewer who was uncomfortable with him saying he doesn't know

00:17:20.140 of more than two genders.

00:17:21.820 Male and female.

00:17:22.960 I don't trust him.

00:17:24.400 And I don't think he's lost my trust permanently.

00:17:27.200 When?

00:17:28.200 Apparently you could just make stuff up and say, oh man, he's lost my trust, boy, howdy,

00:17:32.800 because he didn't do a bunch of things he totally did.

00:17:36.320 And I just didn't see it because I'm living in a bubble.

00:17:40.440 Being principled, but in a complete bubble doesn't mean anything.

00:17:44.640 Because if you're not willing to call balls and strikes and you're just constantly calling

00:17:48.880 the other team unprincipled, you're unprincipled.

00:17:52.660 You're not living up to your own principle.

00:17:55.380 My goodness.

00:17:56.480 And Greg Wycliffe thought that was good footage.

00:17:58.840 That is frankly embarrassing.

00:18:01.200 Greg Wycliffe, by the way, was a 2019 PPC candidate.

00:18:05.040 I believe in Parkdale High Park and was so incompetent, he couldn't even figure out how

00:18:10.440 to complete his financial filing and has since then not been able to run for election because

00:18:14.780 he didn't do his proper financial disclosures with Elections Canada that every candidate has

00:18:19.880 to do.

00:18:20.880 Anyways.

00:18:21.360 So that should be it for me today, guys.

00:18:24.240 I'm not today.

00:18:25.440 I'm going to be back later on with another video, probably.

00:18:28.460 And I'm going to be doing a live stream starting at 7 p.m.

00:18:32.120 Mountain Time, 9 p.m.

00:18:33.540 Eastern.

00:18:34.040 I'll also be appearing on the Sean Newman podcast as well as Juno News throughout the

00:18:38.780 day.

00:18:39.560 But with that being said, thank you guys for watching the show and I'll see you next time.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - April 28, 2025

Conservatives can WIN! Canada's election comes down to Turnout!

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