Conservatives crushing Liberals with 21% lead
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Summary
In this episode, I talk about how the Tories are gaining ground on the Liberals in the polls, and why I think there's still room for the Tories to gain even more ground. I also talk about the Ukraine crisis and why the Liberals are doing a terrible job managing the economy.
Transcript
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The old adage is correct. No matter how bad you think it currently is, it can always get worse.
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And a new mainstream poll is out showing that the Conservatives are not just up like they've
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normally been on the Liberals anywhere from 12 to 17 points. They are above the Liberals by 21
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points. This is the largest lead that the Conservative Party has ever had since 2018.
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It is currently 2024. So the biggest lead they've had in six years, and even back then in 2018,
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that was with SNC-Lavalin and other scandals pushing the Conservatives up in the polls.
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We are right now pretty much scandalous. I know that the arrive can thing is still going on,
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arrive scam, but a lot of public doesn't really know too much about that one. I don't think it's
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really peaked in the same way SNC-Lavalin is. So I think there's still room for the Conservatives to
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gain even more share of the vote. Right now, they're at 46% according to Main Street, and they
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tend to be quite accurate. They're only 4% away from getting literally majority territory in terms
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of the popular vote. And when you take Quebec out, because they're only around 29% in Quebec in this
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Main Street poll, which still actually puts them in first in Quebec because of how divided things are,
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this, that put them above 50% in Anglo-Canada. English-Canada, the Conservatives are above 50%.
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That poll literally put the Conservatives in the lead in the riding of Spadina Fort York in the
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downtown area of Toronto. It is like the third or fourth most densely populated riding in the country.
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And the Conservatives have the edge based on the last couple of polls that have come out. I'd love
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to see Kevin Vong be the MP candidate there for the Conservatives or somewhere else. I'd love to see
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Kevin stay in Parliament, and I really hope he does. And if he can stay in his own riding,
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that would be amazing. But now I want to jump over to Abacus's data, a more deeper dive on what people
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think of Justin Trudeau's performance when it comes to different areas of government, because
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this is the most telling portion. The national polling numbers can say whatever they want,
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because at the end of the day, most people just don't really, like, the national poll numbers can
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change. People's emotions change about the government, and they maybe will go back to voting
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Liberal before the next election, unless they have a fundamental belief that the current government
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is just horrible at their jobs, and they don't trust them. This is why Trudeau was able to recover
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from his, you know, from his, like, deficit in the polls back in 2018, because after SNC-Lavalin
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ended, there was enough Canadians who still thought the Liberals had their best interests in mind
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that they migrated back over. Not anymore. But before I get to that, I just quickly want to plug
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the fact that I, Wyatt Claypool, I'm running for the Calgary Signal Hill Conservative Party
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nomination. If you live in these riding boundaries in Calgary, make sure you buy a membership vote for
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me. My website's in the description below this video, wyattclaypool.com. If you know anyone in
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this riding, get them to sign up. We want real conservatives representing strong conservative
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ridings. I'm running against, like, 14 other people, most of whom don't live in the riding and are
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barely conservative. A lot of Erin O'Toole types where all they'll say is they're against, like,
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Justin Trudeau as a person. That's really it. Anyways, but here are the abacus data results.
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The only thing right now that Justin Trudeau and the Liberals are above water on is responding to
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Russia's invasion of Ukraine. And even then, I would argue that they've done a terrible job when
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you actually know that they've basically deprived Ukraine of any actual useful aid. They've basically
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just been sending cash and drones, which is kind of useless to Ukraine. So regardless of what you
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think on Ukraine, they haven't even been great allies of them. They've been mostly just giving
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them useless aid. And now what we have below that is working with the provinces. This one was close,
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but we still have 50% of Canadians saying that the Liberals have done a terrible job and only 44%
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saying they've done a good job. And even that's a very nebulous category. What does working with the
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provinces really mean at the end of the day? And then we have running an ethical government.
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54% of Canadians say they've done a terrible job and 40% of Canadians say that they've been doing a
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good or acceptable job. Horrifying for them. Managing the economy. And this is where it basically just
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wrecks and nobody likes them anymore. 61% they're doing a terrible job, bad or terrible job. Responding to
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the crisis in healthcare. 61% poor or terrible. Managing the government's finances. 62% bad or terrible.
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Addressing the rising costs of inflation. 71% bad or terrible. Making housing more affordable and
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acceptable. 73% poor and terrible with only 23% saying good or acceptable. That is a death knell for
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this government because they've staked all of their future electoral chances on the housing issue.
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That's why they won't stop promoting how great of a job Sean Frazier is doing with his new housing
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plan despite the fact that they're going to try and release a new housing plan this year
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because the one they just rolled out didn't do very well. But you know, who's counting at this
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point? But this is an issue that if I was advising the liberals, either they should actually try and do
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a actually good job and lower immigration so that we can afford houses again. They're not going to do
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that because they're ideologically committed to mass immigration. Or ignore the issue. But for some
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reason, they won't ignore it. So every single day, Justin Trudeau, Chrystia Freeland and Sean Frazier
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just sound a giant alarm and roll down the red flags around the housing issue so that everybody
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knows how bad that they're doing. And it just came out the other day too, that really what the liberals
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are doing with their stupid housing acceleration fund is bribing provinces or bribing cities in order
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for them to eliminate all of their zoning laws. So they're not actually making it cheaper to build
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homes in terms of lowering the amount of inspections that need to be done, speeding up the process so
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that they can actually get to laying down foundations and building homes. No, no, no, they're just going
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to get rid of zoning in order to try and reduce the cost. And if they do that, then the government
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might throw a city like Calgary, you know, like $100 million in the next couple of years. It's not
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actually going to make housing actually more affordable. And if anything, I guarantee that the
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liberals are going to now take their leverage they have on cities in the next couple of years and start
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trying to jam down even more environmental regulations onto the building of new homes that
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you must build a home like this, that, or the other thing, or you don't get any of your federal
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money. You might have solar panels on it, or you're not getting your housing acceleration fund cash.
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And the conservatives and conservative counselors in different cities are basically saying this could
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ruin our cities in favor of barely building any more homes. And again, the housing is not the problem.
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It's the immigration that's the problem. I wish they actually would have pulled immigration on this
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thing in abacus, because I don't think that they would be getting very good grades on immigration,
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but I think the liberals are happy to not know how bad they're doing on immigration.
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Is there anything else I can mention? Nothing really else other than the conservatives are still
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stomping the liberals in every single demographic group. They're leading with young people,
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middle-aged people, as well as the elderly, 18 to 29, 30 to 44, 45 to 59, 60 plus. The conservatives
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smallest lead is with the Gen Z and younger millennials. 36% is what their share is. That's
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insane. And the problem for the liberals is that they have no obvious base yet. At least the NDP
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is in a solid second place with 18 to 29-year-olds. Everywhere else, the liberals do not punch in any sort
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of significant degree of that demographic group. They have 28% of 60 plus, but the conservatives also
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have 41%. So proportionately, the liberals are doing way worse with competing for older voters
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than the NDP are doing competing for younger voters alongside the CPC. It's basically over. I don't think
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I could put a finer point on it. But that should be it for me today. Again, reminder, I, Wyatt Claypool,
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I'm running for the Calgary Signal Hill Conservative Party nomination. I know there's usually at least
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3,000 of you, 4,000 of you who are watching me from the city of Calgary. So as a practice for the
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channel, go check which riding that you live in. See if you live in these riding boundaries. The riding
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boundaries are changing. So if you generally live in this side of Calgary on the west side, check where
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you live, buy a membership, vote for me. I guarantee a bunch of you live here and you don't even know it.
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And then also, if you want to contribute to the National Telegraph's legal fund, there's a
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Give, Send, Go link in the description below. We're being sued by a billionaire developer for
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defamation. Defamation that he cannot prove and has submitted no evidence to prove. But he's still
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been dragging out this court case for over two years because a guest writer of ours once mentioned him
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in an article about where Erin O'Toole was getting fundraising money from. And in referencing this
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man, she just happened to just mention like a Globe and Mail report about him. So we literally
00:09:03.020
reported nothing new about him other than he was donating to Erin O'Toole and then just linked a
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Globe and Mail article that was an in-depth investigation of him. And he apparently never
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sued them for investigating him because he knew the Globe and Mail would stomp him in court, but he just
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didn't assume that, I was 21 at the time, that a 21-year-old would actually fight back.
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So we're over $26,000 deep in that lawsuit. So anything you can contribute, oh goodness,
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my talking, anything you can contribute really helps us reduce the burden of our costs.
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Anyways, thanks for watching guys. See you next time. Like, share, and subscribe.