The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - April 11, 2024


Conservatives hit new polling high as Trudeau Liberals flounder (Brutal)

Hosted by
Wyatt Claypool
Mentioned
Justin Trudeau Pierre Poilievre Erin O'Toole Jagmeet Singh Doug Ford Bill C-63 Stephen Del Duca Universal Dental Andrea Horvath Thomas Mulcair John Gruden Andrew Scheer Mark Yartzen Karen McDougal Karina Gould Jack Layton Paul Martin Nanos
Trudeau has a tantrum in Parliament over question from Pierre Poilievre David Eby's NDP government is falling apart (BC Conservatives make big polling gains)

Episode Stats


Length

16 minutes

Words per minute

189.55

Word count

3,132

Sentence count

173

Harmful content

Misogyny

2

sentences flagged

Toxicity

6

sentences flagged

Hate speech

1

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

A new poll shows that the Conservatives are now the most popular party in Canada since Justin Trudeau became Prime Minister in 2015, and it's not even close to where they were a year ago, when the Liberals were in the lead in the polls by a few points.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 A couple weeks ago, there was this really embarrassing spate of hacky Liberal Party activists on social media trying to spin a Leger poll showing the Liberals trailing the Conservatives by 12 points into a Justin Trudeau comeback narrative.
00:00:14.740 From their perspective, this was a great poll because the Liberals had gotten used to trailing the Conservatives by 18 to 20 points, and I guess this 12% trail was good enough to think that Justin Trudeau might be re-ascendant in the next election.
00:00:27.800 It was obviously not going to happen, but it really exposed how these people think.
00:00:32.300 They believe that because Justin Trudeau keeps announcing all these bloated new spending programs, that somehow Canadians are going to come back to them because, I guess, Canadians don't actually care about results.
00:00:42.640 They just care about the dollar sign and the value next to the programs the Liberal government is spending on, and that people were willing to vote for them because Trudeau was effectively bribing them with things like his new infrastructure program, Universal Dental, and Universal Pharmacare.
00:00:56.780 All policies that are inevitably going to fail, just as the previous versions of those policies already have failed.
00:01:03.920 But abacus data has come out with a new poll showing that not only are the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals by now 20 points again,
00:01:12.200 but the Conservatives are actually at their most popular position they've ever been in since Justin Trudeau became the Prime Minister of Canada back in 2015.
00:01:20.700 Abacus data is showing that the Conservatives are at 44%, with the Liberals only at 24%.
00:01:27.840 And what I can find kind of interesting is a year ago, before Pierre Polyev had become the leader of the Conservative Party a little bit more than a year ago,
00:01:36.680 the Liberals weren't even doing that well back then.
00:01:39.020 They were yet 29% in the polls.
00:01:41.420 So really, they've only fallen 5%, which is not that much of a fall over an entire year period.
00:01:47.840 The thing is, it's just that the Liberal Party has been floundering for a very long time.
00:01:51.800 So when Aaron O'Toole lost the 2021 election, it wasn't because Justin Trudeau was just that popular and Aaron O'Toole wasn't able to claw away enough votes to win.
00:02:02.300 It was that Justin Trudeau was super unpopular, Aaron O'Toole somehow made himself even more unpopular than Justin Trudeau, and the election ended in a stalemate.
00:02:10.760 So when Pierre Polyev became the leader of the Conservative Party, the Conservative Party has gained anywhere from 9 to even up to 13 points, depending on the pollster that you reference,
00:02:21.000 over like that being the trend, not just that I'm picking the highest result, but that's like the average gain between those polls.
00:02:27.540 It's quite incredible.
00:02:29.500 And so they actually haven't taken that entire gain away from the Liberals.
00:02:33.220 Again, the Liberals have only fallen about 5, 6, 4 points.
00:02:37.480 The Conservatives have gained from effectively everyone.
00:02:40.260 And that's kind of the real narrative of this next election.
00:02:43.660 It's not the Conservatives versus the Liberals.
00:02:46.200 It's the Conservatives and everybody else.
00:02:49.180 It's kind of like the Ontario election in 2022, except instead of Doug Ford effectively winning a big majority because Stephen Del Duca and Andrew Horvath were completely incompetent,
00:03:00.260 that just outweighed the incompetence of Doug Ford, who's not very Conservative at all.
00:03:04.800 Because Pierre Polyev is actually Conservative and actually offering a fresh vision for the country, that means that everyone else's parties basically have become completely irrelevant.
00:03:16.180 And I think the main thing is the fact that the NDP and the Liberals and the Bloc Québécois have just tied themselves to the Liberals.
00:03:23.360 And so they don't seem like actual alternatives.
00:03:26.380 So the only alternative now is the Conservatives.
00:03:29.040 It's everybody else versus the Conservatives.
00:03:31.420 And these are the two charts that kind of prove it.
00:03:33.860 So this is Jagmeet Singh's current popularity.
00:03:37.280 He used to be a pretty popular guy a couple of years ago.
00:03:39.760 He used to pull up to 42% in terms of his approval rating with Abacus Data.
00:03:44.160 And now he's down at only 33% approval with 34% disapproval.
00:03:49.120 And it is super easy to be a very well-liked NDP leader because nobody sees you as a threat.
00:03:55.180 So everyone's willing to say, well, he's probably a nice guy.
00:03:58.060 I'm never going to vote for him.
00:03:59.160 But, you know, he's not the Conservative or the Liberals, so I don't have strong feelings on him.
00:04:02.880 I'll just say I like him.
00:04:04.160 So that's the same thing that happened with Thomas Mulcair and Jack Layton.
00:04:06.980 They generally had pretty good approvals because they didn't care about them that much.
00:04:10.480 Or everyone knew they weren't going to become prime minister.
00:04:12.600 And now that Jagmeet Singh has tied himself to Justin Trudeau, he's deeply unpopular with a lot of Canadians
00:04:18.600 because people see him rightfully so as the co-prime minister of the country.
00:04:23.200 And here is Justin Trudeau's rankings.
00:04:25.420 He's never been the most popular guy on the planet.
00:04:28.200 But a couple of years ago, it was kind of even.
00:04:30.680 Maybe his net popularity was only negative three.
00:04:34.000 Now it's like negative 28 or so.
00:04:36.400 His approval rating is only 25% with his disapproval at 58%.
00:04:40.760 You really don't come back from that.
00:04:42.880 And what you'll notice in the trends of the country for the Liberal Party's popularity is that their popularity as a party
00:04:50.560 almost perfectly matches Justin Trudeau's personal popularity.
00:04:54.300 Because if you don't like Justin Trudeau, you're not voting liberal.
00:04:58.760 Because nothing happens inside the Liberal Party without Justin Trudeau's approval.
00:05:02.720 It tends to be in conservative governments, there's a lot more personalities between the ministers.
00:05:07.780 So depending on whose minister, different things tend to happen.
00:05:10.420 You get some more go-getter conservative ministers who get a lot done.
00:05:13.900 You get some people who don't do as much.
00:05:15.320 You get people with more conservative philosophies, less conservative philosophies.
00:05:19.180 Where in the Liberal Party, everyone might as well just be wearing a Justin Trudeau face mask
00:05:22.940 because everyone just does exactly what Justin Trudeau wants.
00:05:25.840 And the other trend in popularity is Pierre Polyev.
00:05:29.860 He's actually sitting at a net approval right now, which is very difficult for a conservative leader
00:05:34.460 because the media is full of people just absolutely smacking you every single day with false accusations, 0.81
00:05:41.100 accusations that you're a mean, nasty person.
00:05:43.640 But these polls are showing that people are actually coming around to him and realizing that, 0.72
00:05:47.340 like, yeah, we actually need somebody with a little bit of a different take on things than Justin Trudeau.
00:05:53.060 So even though the natural instinct in Canada is to say, oh, a conservative must be like an American Republican.
00:05:58.700 I hate them because I've been trained to think that, you know, American conservative politics is evil. 0.98
00:06:03.160 Ergo, it's like conservatives in Canada are evil. 0.98
00:06:05.760 It's very silly the way people think about politics because they watch too much legacy media.
00:06:10.300 But this is the more important poll than just the 44% for the conservatives,
00:06:15.000 is the poll of the major regions where the election is going to be decided.
00:06:18.820 That's British Columbia, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada, where the most seats are truly up for grabs,
00:06:25.060 where the least safe seats are present.
00:06:27.620 So the conservatives are at 46% in these three regions, with the liberals only at 25%.
00:06:34.940 These are the big regions that the liberals need to be running up the score if they want to win the next election.
00:06:40.640 And right now, it looks like even the seats that they thought were safe as of maybe a year ago are up for grabs.
00:06:47.080 Mark Yartzen, Kingston and the Islands, he's probably going to be gone.
00:06:49.940 Ken McDonald out in, I forget what the writing is, it's in Atlantic Canada, Newfoundland.
00:06:54.640 He could be gone, even though he used to be a fairly popular local MP.
00:06:59.060 He's going to be gone.
00:07:00.040 Karina Gould in Burlington, gone, even though she's been a multi-term MP.
00:07:04.260 There are so many liberals who now are easy pickings, even though they're ministers, they've been around for 12 years.
00:07:11.160 Same thing with the NDP.
00:07:12.180 That's why a bunch of NDP MPs just left.
00:07:15.020 The polling is just so bad for them, because people aren't really voting against them personally.
00:07:19.500 They're voting for actual change.
00:07:21.740 That's kind of a narrative you get in a lot of elections.
00:07:23.980 Do we want change or do we not want change?
00:07:26.060 But it's even more profound now, because it's not just, I want a different guy in government.
00:07:30.180 They're saying, we want a different philosophy in government.
00:07:32.780 This wasn't part of Abacus Data's polling that came out, but a poll from another firm, I think it actually was Nanos, showed that 56% of Canadians believe the government's spending too much.
00:07:45.840 That is an actual profound shift in Canada.
00:07:48.940 In Canada over time, the idea was, is that all government spending is good government spending.
00:07:54.660 The idea was that government programs help the poor, they help stabilize the economy, you know, failing industries are propped up by the government.
00:08:01.960 And that's a good thing.
00:08:03.140 And we've gone to the point where so many people's small businesses have fallen under, the inflation has kicked up so much, people haven't had any wage growth in the private sector in so long, while people in the public sector working for the government have been getting wage increases, including the politicians.
00:08:17.380 And a lot of people are thinking, enough, you guys are going to have to figure out how to tighten your belts the way we have, so that we can actually get ahead.
00:08:24.200 That's what's going on with the polling when it comes to those issues these days, and that's what is being reflected in the national polling.
00:08:31.940 And here's another good, like, sort of overview of what's kind of going on in Canada, is that the Conservatives are just absolutely dominating with men, and yet they're still winning with women, and that was the firewall that the Liberals had.
00:08:46.440 I don't have this result up, but the Liberals have always been a party that relies on pensioner votes because the deal of the Liberal Party is we're not as scary as the NDP, but we're also going to increase benefits at a more rapid rate than the Conservatives would.
00:09:01.200 So they'd win pensioner voters, and they'd also win women, because women tend to be, and all women in the comments section can tell me if they know women like this.
00:09:09.540 I know that you probably aren't like this because you're a Conservative and you don't really follow, like, you know, legacy media if you're watching this channel.
00:09:16.260 But women tend to vote for more stability in government, and that's what the Liberals tend to at least represent themselves as. 1.00
00:09:22.280 We're not going to cut spending like the Conservatives, and we're not going to, like, double the government spending the way the NDP would.
00:09:28.140 Now, the Liberals are losing women because they are acting like the NDP.
00:09:33.320 It's always been said, and I've said it many times before, Justin Trudeau is actually a very orange Liberal Party leader.
00:09:40.240 He is not in the same tradition of Paul Martin, John Chrétien, and some of the other Liberal leaders.
00:09:45.380 He's very much like his dad, who is also very orange, very much the big program type Liberal.
00:09:51.420 He's not just going to keep the benefits increasing steadily for those who currently receive them.
00:09:56.400 He's going to start tons of new benefit programs.
00:09:58.840 He's going to, like, pass censorship policies.
00:10:00.960 He's going to go after parental rights.
00:10:03.260 He's going to go after pro-life charities.
00:10:04.860 He's going to, you know, go after firearms.
00:10:07.420 And after doing so much in government, he's making the traditional bases of the Liberal Party extremely nervous.
00:10:13.660 In fact, the only region the Liberal Party is currently in the lead in is in Quebec, and they're only leading the Bloc Quebec law by one point, and they're only leading the Conservatives by four points.
00:10:23.960 That's an area of the country that if the Liberals want to win a majority government, they need to be leading by, like, eight to 12 points on their next best opponent.
00:10:31.740 And now they're trailing literally everywhere else.
00:10:34.180 Atlantic Canada.
00:10:35.100 That was a massive firewall for the Liberals.
00:10:38.240 They want every single riding, as you remembered, back in 2015 in the Atlantic Canada.
00:10:43.780 Now, the Conservatives are at 47% in the polls, and I believe the Liberals are only at, like, 23%.
00:10:48.700 It's embarrassing out there because the Liberal Party believed that whatever they said was going to be law and everyone was going to follow them because the legacy media backed them up.
00:10:58.280 It's not how it went down.
00:10:59.860 Maritime voters actually tend to be more center-left when it comes to economics.
00:11:03.700 They are in favor of benefit programs and other sort of subsidies because they have some industries that struggle.
00:11:10.040 There's a lot of seasonal workers in that area.
00:11:12.680 But maritime voters are socially conservative, very family-values-based voters.
00:11:18.060 And then when the Liberal Party started pushing a bunch of woke garbage on people, they lost the maritime voters once it actually started affecting their families.
00:11:26.280 You know, Justin Trudeau's virtue signaling in the first five, six years, that was ignorable. 0.97
00:11:30.700 Who cares? He's not coming after us. He's just being kind of a twit on television.
00:11:35.280 But when he actually started passing, you know, Bill C-4, the anti-conversion therapy bill, which is really just enforcing gender theory in the home, 0.87
00:11:44.420 when he started passing Bill C-16, the one that enforces pronouns as something that can be prosecuted as hate speech if you don't use the correct ones that people demand that you use,
00:11:54.360 that stuff started alienating the Maritimes, you know, going after pro-life camp, like Christian camps. 0.55
00:12:01.000 That was ticking these people off.
00:12:03.040 And now that Pure Polyev is actually offering an anti-woke alternative, unlike the Maritimes didn't get behind Aaron O'Toole in 2021.
00:12:10.740 But now that Pure Polyev is actually allowing his socially conservative wing of the party to operate more freely than like Aaron O'Toole and Andrew Scheer did,
00:12:20.140 these people are more comfortable coming over to the conservative party.
00:12:24.560 And so what I think the liberals are going to do from here on out is that they are going to basically double and triple down on what they've been doing before.
00:12:32.440 Not really a groundbreaking prediction on my behalf.
00:12:36.100 But the thing is, with the liberal party, is that they assume, like in the past,
00:12:41.740 that if they just released a bunch of programs and they see their polling bump up a little bit,
00:12:46.000 then that is the path forward. And the media is going to ballyhoo every single new program that comes out.
00:12:51.040 They're going to find five seniors who say, oh, this new dental program is really helping me out.
00:12:55.360 And they're going to hope that the perception of sort of prosperity is going to lead the liberals forward.
00:13:01.100 It's not true. Just because inflation's come down a little bit and actually hasn't come down,
00:13:05.240 the rate of increase has just slowed, that somehow people are just going to come back to them.
00:13:09.840 I think that Canadians have become very, they're almost different voters now.
00:13:13.800 They've become very results-based voters.
00:13:16.320 There's no longer the promise of good things in the future that are going to get people coming out to vote for the liberals.
00:13:22.660 And so, yes, every once in a while, if the liberals announce three or four new policies,
00:13:27.460 the polls are going to reflect that they increase relative to conservatives by five points.
00:13:32.680 I think that's what the last Nanos poll and the last Leger poll showed.
00:13:36.120 As soon as the liberals announce a bunch of new programs, they're polling rise a little bit.
00:13:40.280 But then a couple months later, when everything still sucks for people,
00:13:42.920 people are going to go back to voting how they were originally planning to.
00:13:46.700 And it doesn't matter.
00:13:47.960 You can't actually really bribe voters in the long run.
00:13:50.960 Because as soon as the writ drops for an election,
00:13:53.620 people are going to just assume everything that you promise is just an empty election promise.
00:13:58.720 Election promises don't actually move the polls all that much.
00:14:01.660 Very rarely do they actually do it.
00:14:04.020 When you're in government, announcements can affect your polls.
00:14:06.920 But if people don't see results from that very quickly, people turn on you again.
00:14:11.140 And so what's going to happen is Justin Trudeau is going to put the country down further into this drain spiral that we're currently in
00:14:17.920 by announcing six billion here and four billion here and half a million, like 500 million here.
00:14:22.960 And he's going to keep putting us further and further into debt and keep further and increasing inflation.
00:14:27.920 Basically, just for these temporary little poll boosts that do nothing because people don't trust him personally.
00:14:32.720 So really, people are just going to be like, well, I'll vote for the conservatives and hope that they deliver the liberal programs better.
00:14:39.280 And even then, the polling shows that people actually kind of want government cuts these days because they no longer like the government living high on the hog.
00:14:46.840 While, you know, the average citizen who doesn't work for the government is having to, you know, reduce the quality of groceries they buy.
00:14:54.640 They have to plan, you know, their days around how much gas they have in their tank.
00:14:58.880 Like, that's ticking people off.
00:15:00.680 And so there's no more sympathy for, you know, program spendings that could hurt vulnerable people as if any government's ever going to cut spending for vulnerable people.
00:15:09.100 It's going to be HR administration and departments that do nothing. 0.97
00:15:13.140 There are tons of that in government right now.
00:15:17.000 Anyways, that should be enough for me today, guys.
00:15:20.000 Just want to quickly plug, I, Wyatt Claypool, I'm running for the Calgary Signal Hill Conservative Party nomination.
00:15:25.900 If you live in this riding on the west side of Calgary, buy a Conservative Party membership and visit my website, Wyatt.Claypool, sorry, not Wyatt.Claypool, WyattClaypool.com in the description below.
00:15:36.920 And then also, if you want to donate, if you don't live in my riding, you can donate to the legal fund for myself, the National Telegraph, for being sued by a billionaire developer from China for defamation that he cannot prove and has not provided any evidence for in over two years.
00:15:52.320 And he's just dragging it out at this point.
00:15:54.020 So anything you can donate to that really helps reduce the burden of cost on us in the long run.
00:15:58.560 Anyways, that should be it for me today.
00:16:00.660 Have a go on.
00:16:01.420 Have a go on.