The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Conservatives out-fundraise Liberals in Q2 - CPC voter efficiency rises

00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. We are on the whiteboard today because I want to talk to you

00:00:05.600 about the federal fundraising numbers for the Conservative Party of Canada and Mark Carney's

00:00:11.420 Liberal Party. I did this video for British Columbia recently where I talked about the

00:00:16.860 massive fall off of donations for the BC Conservatives in part because they've gone

00:00:22.700 very woke or have become very ineffective on many policy fronts or have been rigging things like

00:00:28.080 their annual general meeting. That is not what is happening right now for the CPC. We're only

00:00:34.960 one quarter removed from the federal election with the federal election having taken place on the

00:00:40.180 first month of the second quarter, but overall you would assume that if the Conservatives lost the

00:00:45.860 election, while they may be able to bring in a lot of money in April, you would assume that it would

00:00:50.060 drop off the map and that the Liberals would skyrocket after because they got the election

00:00:54.860 bump, just the same as Conservatives, but winning should get a lot more people interested in joining

00:01:00.440 the Liberal Party and giving them money. But in fact, in this second quarter, the Conservatives were

00:01:07.280 able to still beat the Liberals. So let's start off with the Liberals. So this is Q2 fundraising,

00:01:15.240 and we have the Liberal Party here bringing in...they brought in 7.7 million. Not the best rating I've

00:01:31.040 ever done in my life, but pretty good numbers for Canadian politics. Under Justin Trudeau, there was

00:01:37.320 months where the Liberals were only bringing in a couple million, and they were in fact closer to what

00:01:42.760 the federal NDP was bringing in than what the Conservatives were bringing in. But the CPC ended

00:01:49.220 up bringing in this second quarter, they brought in 9.1 million dollars, which means that although they

00:02:02.840 spent a lot during the election, they are going to be able to keep bringing in money and spending at

00:02:07.880 high rates. This is kind of the problem for a lot of parties. After they lose, they end up having a lot

00:02:13.700 of donors of like you avoid them like the plague, they don't want to give any money anymore, you got

00:02:18.020 to shake things up, or else we're not coming back. At the very least, either the Conservatives smashed

00:02:24.320 it in April, and it's been a big fall off after that. Really, I actually just think that a lot of

00:02:29.040 Conservatives still really like Pierre Polyev, they're not going to hold their money back waiting for him

00:02:33.600 to leave before they start donating under a new leader. I think most people going forward into the

00:02:39.520 January leadership review are still on the side of Pierre Polyev. And I do have to park here and say,

00:02:45.600 I am very happy to hear that Jenny Byrne is not going to be in charge of the next election campaign

00:02:51.360 anymore. I and others have been pushing for that, and although I would like to see her have absolutely

00:02:57.920 nothing to do with the party not even having a different role, it is still progress for the Conservatives to

00:03:03.120 say, hey, this didn't work. Let's stop doing that. But in a second here, I then want to move on to what

00:03:10.480 some of the current polling looks like. Because at the moment, again, despite the Liberals having won,

00:03:16.240 and the Liberals being in the middle of their honeymoon period, I think we're going to start

00:03:20.720 seeing the honeymoon period kind of wear off in October back when the next session starts and the

00:03:26.400 Conservatives start grilling the Liberals again. Right now, in the middle of it, it's not like they are

00:03:31.440 dominating the Conservatives. The Conservatives are not that far behind the Liberals right now.

00:03:36.160 I'm just going to reset the board and then come back to talk about the recent Palace poll that ended

00:03:41.520 up coming out. Okay, I'm back after a board reset. And this is the recent numbers that we saw come out

00:03:50.560 of a Palace data poll. We have the Liberals obviously currently winning. Again, they just won

00:03:56.480 re-election. They're in a honeymoon period. And there is that kind of Donald Trump effect still going on

00:04:01.600 for Carney and the Liberals. The idea being that because they're standing up to Donald Trump, a lot

00:04:06.400 of people are going to give them their support. Because if you're not supporting the Liberals,

00:04:10.560 it's like you're supporting the Americans. But even then, when you look at this poll,

00:04:14.800 the Liberals are at 43.2, the Pierre Pauly of Conservatives are at 37.6, and we have the NDP at 7.5.

00:04:24.160 Now, this basically means that the Conservatives have lost about a point to the Liberals since

00:04:30.000 Election Day, lost a point to the Liberals since Election Day, and they've lost a point or so to the

00:04:36.320 NDP. Naturally, you were considered the big loser of the night. Yes, the NDP lost a lot of their vote,

00:04:42.480 but nobody expects the NDP to go anywhere, so it's just not as dramatic of an impact. But it's not

00:04:49.120 what we're seeing in other pollsters like Nanos. I'm pretty much just ignoring Nanos right now.

00:04:54.560 The problem is when you start showing a 14% lead for the Liberals right after they only beat the

00:05:00.480 Conservatives on the popular vote by a point and a half, I don't really believe you. I don't think

00:05:05.520 people turn on a party they just voted for that dramatically. There is that kind of winner effect

00:05:11.360 that because you won, your supporters after an election are going to be more willing to pick up

00:05:16.400 the phone and tell a pollster that's who they voted for. But if that's what's going on for Nanos,

00:05:20.960 they really got to get a better sample because they got way too many urban Liberals picking up

00:05:24.960 the phone to say, I voted Liberal, and way too many pessimistic Conservatives now not wanting to take

00:05:30.000 a poll anymore. But the Liberals are in effect leading the Conservatives by around five and a half points.

00:05:37.200 Now, again, the Conservatives would not want this result on an election night, but it is not the kind

00:05:43.200 of wide gap that would maybe encourage Mark Carney to call an election. This is a bit too close for

00:05:49.920 comfort. And if we see Mark Carney start to really take it on the chin because of failures when it comes

00:05:56.240 to the trade deal, when it comes to pipelines, when it comes to the job numbers that just came out,

00:06:00.800 we've lost 40,000 jobs in just the month of July alone, you could see Mark Carney's party start

00:06:08.720 slipping down to, I would say, 40% is kind of like a death number for them. In this new kind of two

00:06:15.360 party situation that we're in, if the Liberals are at 40, and even if the Conservatives are just at 40,

00:06:22.560 the Conservatives, in fact, will win. Now, this is something I want to bring up on screen,

00:06:27.920 because it's very important. This is done by Sheree Attiste, this analysis. Sheree Attiste is

00:06:33.680 brilliant, a very good analyzer of the polls. The guy's literally just a 16-year-old, or I think he's

00:06:40.320 now 17. He's going into grade 12 this next year, and he is one of the best poll analysts that's out

00:06:46.640 there because he's actually good at contextualizing numbers. But Sheree Attiste says, conservative votes

00:06:53.760 are more efficient than Liberal votes now. Imagine telling someone this to somebody four years ago.

00:07:00.960 And he's just been running the numbers through his algorithm, different polling numbers and seeing

00:07:06.160 what kind of seat counts come out of different popular vote results. And that's not artificial at

00:07:12.080 all. Sheree Attiste, this 16, 17-year-old, had the most accurate election prediction for the 2025

00:07:20.240 federal election. And what he's showing right now is that if the Conservatives were beaten by 0.5%

00:07:29.600 of the vote, half a percent, they would still win the election. That's unheard of. We all remember 2021

00:07:36.720 and 2019. Conservatives won the popular vote of the Liberals, and the Liberals still won about 18,

00:07:42.960 20 more seats than they did. We are in a reverse situation. Conservatives could lose by 0.5% and

00:07:50.240 win the whole election. Maybe not majority government, but they would get the most seats.

00:07:55.040 Even in this last election, that's what we've seen. The Conservative vote has become more efficient.

00:08:01.440 Getting 100,000 votes is worth more to the Conservatives than 100,000 votes are worth to the Liberals,

00:08:07.600 because the Conservatives have started to get a very concentrated appeal in certain areas where

00:08:13.680 they're gaining lots of voters, and they're not gaining votes in areas where it doesn't really matter.

00:08:19.440 I think, in fact, if the Conservatives were bolder on specific policies and targeted specific

00:08:23.920 communities, their efficiency would, in fact, go way up. They could actually go really hard on the

00:08:30.080 phishing issues. They could really go after certain issues around equalization or supply management.

00:08:35.920 I think they would actually start picking up seats in areas of rural Canada that the Conservatives do

00:08:41.200 not win yet, but which the farmers are deprived because of the quota system leaving them out.

00:08:46.640 You know, Manitoba, there's a Saskatchewan seat they can recapture. They could start winning some

00:08:51.520 seats out in British Columbia, Maritimes. I think the Conservatives, not that that's the big issue,

00:08:57.040 but I'm saying that every little small policy issue that you hear at least a sizable amount of people

00:09:01.760 complaining about, you take that on, you end up winning very specific constituencies.

00:09:06.800 The Conservatives became the blue-collar party from taking on issues that matter to working-class men,

00:09:12.720 and that's why you see them flip both of the Windsor ridings. One riding that hadn't gone

00:09:17.680 Conservative since the 1950s, and the other that hadn't gone to the Conservatives since the 1930s.

00:09:23.840 And in this last election, what we saw is that on election night,

00:09:28.320 the Liberals had about 43% of the vote, and the Conservatives had about 41 and a half.

00:09:33.760 And even in losing by a point and a half, the Conservatives were actually only 8,000 votes away

00:09:39.680 from winning a minority government. The ridings that made up the margin of victory for the Liberals

00:09:45.840 only had gaps of 8,000 votes for the other 20 ridings or so that the Conservatives needed to win

00:09:51.760 in order to have more seats than the Liberals did. So that tells you that the Conservatives are at least

00:09:57.440 getting better at actually finding the demographics that like them. Previous elections, they just said

00:10:03.360 such generic things and they shotgunned their appeal out to as many people as possible that,

00:10:08.720 yeah, they won the popular vote from getting a few more people in the GTA to come out to them,

00:10:13.040 like downtown Toronto voters because they ran a very mild, nothing kind of a campaign,

00:10:18.880 but that didn't actually result in them winning more seats. So combined with the current better

00:10:24.720 fundraising they still have over the Liberals, and with the Conservative Party seemingly finding

00:10:30.160 the demos it needs in order to win, I think in the next election they are going to be much better set

00:10:34.880 up, especially since they have now put Jenny Byrne out on an ice float and pushed her out to sea,

00:10:40.400 at least in terms of her campaign management career. I'm sure she has some sort of a job still

00:10:45.840 in the Conservative Party. I don't think she should have anything, but it's progress for her not to be

00:10:50.640 the national campaign director next time around. Now again, it doesn't mean the Liberals still can't

00:10:56.400 win another government, but I think that if the Conservatives start heightening, hardening their

00:11:02.000 message on things like immigration and energy and like other sort of social issues that Polly have

00:11:07.760 actually has been doing a better job on the last couple of months, they probably can win. Politics

00:11:13.360 is 90% about getting your base out, and maybe I can quickly do a little bit of a bonus lesson on the

00:11:20.720 board before I close this video out. Now, so my bonus lesson is on the idea of turnout. It's on this idea

00:11:28.560 I just mentioned about how politics is 90% winning your base, driving your base out to vote. I find party

00:11:36.720 people can be very silly and thinking that, you know, certain demos kind of have to like us because 0.97

00:11:41.680 there's no alternative. And so now we can move on and try and win those, you know, 0.94

00:11:45.920 downtown GTA voters and maybe snag a Toronto seat. It's very, it's very short-sighted.

00:11:53.360 Here's basically my conception of how the Conservative Party works. The main demographic that votes

00:11:59.360 Conservative right now, if you averaged its voter down, or basically if you care, if you caricatured what

00:12:05.280 a Conservative Party voter is, maybe not as much in this last election because the Conservative Party became

00:12:11.200 much more young and much more blue collar, in part because also older voters have disproportionately

00:12:16.240 voted for the Liberals. But historically, I'd say a generic profile of a Conservative voter is a family

00:12:23.600 with three or four kids, you know, mid 50s, you know, maybe later 40s, goes to church, you know,

00:12:30.400 it's that 50-year-old Protestant English couple from Western Canada, or even the GTA, the Southwestern

00:12:38.960 Ontario. The problem with the Conservatives kind of saying, we won them, what does it matter, is that

00:12:45.360 the Conservatives, I had actually been predicting this during the election, if the Conservatives could

00:12:48.480 get to 70% voter turnout in Canada, they win. We only ended up getting to about 68 and a half percent

00:12:55.680 turnout in Canada. And surprise, surprise, the Liberals barely snag it. Now, when the Conservatives

00:13:01.920 do things like they tell Arnold Vearson, shut up, don't say anything after he won any pro-life

00:13:06.640 podcast and said very hardcore pro-life things, is that you're not going to have that 50-year-old

00:13:12.640 Protestant English couple stop showing up to vote in Southwestern Ontario. They'll probably still show up 1.00

00:13:18.480 to vote, but your base are the people that you want to be showing up 85% plus. And this is just a

00:13:26.240 prediction. This is just an educated guess. I would say if you took that demo I've just described, I

00:13:31.840 think they probably showed up at a rate of about 72%. It's just a thing that evangelical Protestants tend 0.92

00:13:38.960 to show up and vote more than like Catholic voters and whatnot. It's very strange how these different

00:13:43.840 demographics work, especially because Catholic voters tend to be very in Quebec and there's no real

00:13:48.480 parties that run pro-life in Quebec, so they don't really show up as much. But if they show up at 72%, it's

00:13:55.120 higher than the actual turnout of 68 and a half. But this is something that the party, the Conservatives

00:14:01.040 will see as, well, that's good. We've won them. And then they will move on to a demographic that is mostly 0.96

00:14:07.840 voting Liberal. They'll try and go find those voters in the GTA, those more kind of in the middle,

00:14:13.440 Granola, political moderates, who in the last election were probably splitting 60-40,

00:14:19.200 in which if you try and target that demographic and you try and drive them out to vote for you,

00:14:24.880 really all that you're doing is driving up people who are going to be splitting 60-40 Liberal.

00:14:30.000 Yeah, you can kind of sometimes identify the conservative leaning aspects of that segment and

00:14:35.920 push them out. Really what you should have been doing is trying to push out this middle-aged, 1.00

00:14:41.600 you know, family, like this middle-aged family vote who's like religious, smaller suburban areas,

00:14:50.240 whatnot, and you should have gotten them up to an 80% turnout. That is what is going to make

00:14:56.960 up the difference in these ridings. Send your pro-life MPs out and do church tours. Send your guys who are

00:15:05.040 farmers to do like rural small town tours in some of the ridings where the Liberals can conceivably win.

00:15:11.760 That's how you're going to win back the supply management sorts of ridings because the Liberals

00:15:16.560 firmly have those in their hands because they are the supply management party. The Conservatives are

00:15:21.680 never going to out supply management the Liberals and nor should they. So if the Conservatives would

00:15:26.640 send out their John Barlow's of the world, they can send out their other rural Ontario guys to just hit

00:15:32.960 every single small town. That's how you're going to win these areas. You don't win by doing a focus

00:15:36.880 group and finding out what people in Toronto Centre, Vancouver Centre, or Montreal think. You're going

00:15:42.800 to win by taking the people who already like you, 72% turnout on the middle-aged Protestant couple,

00:15:50.400 and you turn them into an 80% turnout group. That is how you end up winning and punching the overall

00:15:56.480 turnout above 70. Take the people you already have the roadmap for, they already like you,

00:16:01.520 promise them some extra things to turn that 72 into an 80 rather than as soon as the election

00:16:06.240 starts saying we're not going to do anything pro-life. I know in my church, I can guarantee

00:16:10.480 you there are tons of people who would vote Conservative, but as soon as they say we're

00:16:14.320 not going to touch anything on pro-life, they're like, they may still show up and vote, but they're

00:16:18.720 if they're tired at the end of the day, they work a like, you know, a physical job and they're tired.

00:16:24.640 Maybe they just drive by the polling station to get home, you know, they got something to do.

00:16:28.320 And that's what you're always fighting as a party, trying to prevent people from saying,

00:16:32.640 you know, I got to get up at seven tomorrow. I'm not stopping to get to vote. Maybe the

00:16:38.080 Conservatives win anyways, I don't even care. You got to make them want to wait in a two-hour

00:16:43.440 line for you. That's why politics is all about your base. Politics is not about the middle voter

00:16:47.760 that you win over. Middle voter is very unmotivated. Middle voter doesn't even show up most of the time, 0.84

00:16:52.400 so don't bother them. But anyways, a little bit of a rant on Conservative Party politics. I like

00:16:58.320 how the bonus part of this episode basically became longer than the other two segments on

00:17:02.800 fundraising and the palace poll, but what can you do? That's just how life works out sometimes.

00:17:08.000 Anyways, so if you liked my videos, make sure to subscribe to the channel if you're not yet a

00:17:11.760 subscriber. Like the video and leave a comment on whatever you think about what I just talked about.

00:17:17.680 Anyway, so that should be it for me today. See you guys later.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - August 08, 2025

Conservatives out-fundraise Liberals in Q2 - CPC voter efficiency rises

Episode Stats

Summary

Transcript