Conservatives retake lead in new polls! (Election Analysis)
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Summary
In this episode, I talk about the latest polling numbers and how they prove that the Conservatives are actually leading the Liberals in the polls. I also talk about how the Tories are gaining ground on the Liberals, and why a minority government is actually possible.
Transcript
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Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. I have some great polling news for the Conservative Party and Pierre
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Poly of today. In previous videos where I've been talking about polling, often I am talking about
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polls that show the Liberals leading, but I'm always wanting to highlight numbers underneath
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the national numbers that prove that the Liberals lead was far softer than many wanted to make it
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out. And I think that these new numbers coming out right now are proving me exactly correct.
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For an example, I would sometimes highlight a poll from Angus Reid. I don't even think they're a very
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good firm, at least in this election cycle. They would have the Liberals up nationally on the
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Conservatives by four to six points. But if you scroll down and read some of the sub numbers,
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it would prove that things weren't actually looking as good for the Liberals as the national numbers
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would make it seem. So they would poll voter enthusiasm and the Liberals would have 51%
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of their supporters saying that they are definitely going to vote. But the Conservatives, and this is
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a big sample for both parties, the Conservatives would have 72% of their supporters saying they're
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definitely going to vote. In fact, with the Liberals, like 5% said they weren't going to vote at all,
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and another 6% said that they were unlikely to vote. That's really, really bad for the Liberals,
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and I think we are seeing that starting to bear fruit negatively for the Liberals, that they were the
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shiny new toy because Justin Trudeau was swapped out with Mark Carney. And now as the kids are
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playing with it, they're realizing that this is junk just like Justin Trudeau was. The tariff issue
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was off the table for the Liberals. They're trying to keep it alive, but the thing's dead. There was no
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direct sweeping tariffs on Canada from the United States. Yeah, there's the auto sector tariffs,
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and there's steel and aluminum tariffs. Even then, a lot of this actually spells good things for
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Canada with all the tariffs on other countries. Canada may become an import hub. Where other countries
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import their stuff to Canada first, so then it can be manufactured a little bit further,
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so then it can be moved to the U.S. without any tariffs. So, you know, there's a silver lining
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there. But I want to get into some of the numbers that are coming out now, proving that the
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Conservatives actually have a lot of national muscle. It's not just these sub figures that I'm
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looking at saying that the Conservatives are doing well. Those were important. Now it's even the top
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line numbers showing that the Conservatives are leading. Now, don't get me wrong. The Conservatives need
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to do much better in order to actually pull a government out of this. The advantage the Liberals
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have is that if their people actually do show up, they have a far more efficient vote because
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the Conservatives will win a rural riding by Saddam Hussein numbers. They can win Athabasca like
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they're Idi Amin, and it doesn't mean anything. They need to be able to win certain ridings in Ontario,
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in British Columbia, in Quebec, in Atlantic Canada, if they want to nickel and dime their way up to at least
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a minority government. And I consider a minority government a big win for the Conservatives because
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if Polyev can even govern for five months, I think Canadians are going to see, oh, that's why he was
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telling the Liberals that they should do this and that. This is at least getting a bit better with
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the Conservatives in. You know, things aren't going to get much better until they have a majority, but
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if they can even do a couple of the things they promised in a minority government, if they can even
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get a partial version of it passed, if they then go to a new election within a year, they will easily
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get a majority. So our goal as Canadians is just to get these people into a minority at least, so then
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we can get a majority later. Can we get into majority now? Sure, but let's just focus on like Moneyball,
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getting on base, let's just get across the finish line and get some form of a government. So before I get
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into the numbers, guys, make sure to like this video, subscribe to the channel if you've been liking my
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election coverage and then leave a comment. It helps the videos in the algorithm and I genuinely
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like to scroll through and read the comments three or four times just scrolling through all the newest
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ones to see what people are saying. Anyways, now without further ado, let's jump into the first pollster
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I want to highlight today, and that is Abacus Data. Now this poll actually has its top line number in a
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tie. We have the Conservatives at 39, Liberals 39, NDP 11, Block 6, Greens 3, and PPC 2. You will detect
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that this is not quite 100%. There are a lot of undecided people out there still, as to be expected.
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We are early on to an election, but this is an improvement for the Conservatives, considering that
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it was just last week that they actually had the Liberals leading in their poll. But now, if you actually
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dig down a little bit deeper, and I think that this is important to do, and you look at those saying
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that they are certain to vote, you can see Shreya Teest here says new Abacus data poll among those
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certain to vote, the Conservatives now have a lead of 2%. Liberals are down at 40, NDP 9, Block 6,
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Greens 2, PPC 1. Now obviously both the Liberals and the Conservatives gain between just all voters and
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certain to vote people because the NDP is a very squishy group of people these days. But what's most
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interesting is, look, from last week's poll from Abacus data to this week, the Liberals with certain
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to vote people have dropped one and the Conservatives have gone up three. So a four-point swing in a
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single week has occurred between the Liberals and the Conservatives. If the Conservatives can even just
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gain 1% a week right now in the certain to vote category over the Liberals, then we're easily in a
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government. We are easily falling into governmental range for the Conservatives. They need to beat the
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Liberals probably by two and a half to three points to get a minority government. They probably need
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to beat them by eight points to get a majority. It's just the way Canadian politics works. Liberals
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have an extremely efficient vote. They win a lot of their ridings with like 42%, whereas an average
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Conservative riding is one with like 53% because of that heavy rural vote that the Conservatives have.
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In the cities, their votes become far thinner and they need to be allocated properly
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to actually pull a riding out. But now I want to jump over to a different pollster.
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This one had the Conservatives like falling behind a lot last week. It was crazy how bad that they were
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doing last week. And this is a pollster I trust, Innovative Research. And it might have just been
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a really bad week for the Conservatives in that poll, but here is Sheree Attiste. He does a good job
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presenting all this stuff on Twitter. Give them a follow their real Albanian patch or whatever,
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real Albanian patriot. He's not even Albanian. It's like a joke or whatever. But new innovation
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research poll, the Conservatives at 38%, Liberals 37%, NDP 12%, Block 6, Greens 4, and other two.
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Now, obviously again, with the two top parties only in the upper 30s and the NDP at 12, there are a lot
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of undecided people out there. So a lot of people that the Conservatives can still win over. And this is
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a good poll, though, for the Conservatives. Because as the plus four and the plus one are representing
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for the Liberals and the Conservatives, the Liberals have gained one percent since last week, but the
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Conservatives have gained four. The Conservatives had a massive resurgence. And it's because,
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frankly, not only has Pierre Pauly been generating massive amounts of enthusiasm and energy through these
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record-breaking rallies. He had 6,500 people show up in Oshawa. He's had 5,500 people in Surrey.
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And what's most impressive of all is actually 1,800 people, 2,000 people in Charlottetown.
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PEI is a province of like 1,600, maybe 180,000 people. And he brought in like 1.2%, 1.3% of the
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population to come and see him speak. That's massive. And I was told by people on the ground
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there like, yeah, not many people drove in from out of province to that rally because you'd have to
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drive in over like an hour and a half if you were coming from Nova Scotia or New Brunswick
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at the closest. And so that demonstrates that even in a province where all three ridings last election,
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and actually for the previous, I think three or four elections, have all gone Liberal. If the
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Conservatives can even grab one, just one PEI seat, the Conservatives are really in business
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in Atlantic Canada. Because my theory about this election is that we don't actually need the GTA.
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Are there some GTA ridings the Conservatives could win? Sure, Mississauga, Brampton,
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heavy South Asian populations who hate SOGI, hate gender theory, really hate taxes. Those people
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might come out in droves and they're very hard to pull so that area of Canada will seem bright,
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bright red, because it was red last time. And the polls will or the poll models will have a bias to
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what they were last time. But those groups of Canadians are very apt to swing between the parties.
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The one thing the Conservatives have to stop doing is stop kicking Hindu voters in the face. There was
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a Hindu candidate for the Conservatives, I believe in Brampton, who was kicked out. And there was some
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story like, oh, he was colluding with the Indian government. And that is basically just him sending
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out a post on Facebook criticizing Kalistanis. Probably some idiot in the background of the
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Conservative Party, rose a big fuss, you have to get rid of a rhyme out. And the party's like,
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okay, we'll get rid of them. Dumb move, because guess who is the second most conservative voting
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group in Canada after Evangelical Christians? Hindus. Hindus are hardcore Conservative voters.
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Like, I think Evangelical Christians vote Conservative 76%. And then Hindus vote Conservative like 70%. So those
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two groups like gun owners and business owners are like your bread and butter as conservatives. So you've
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got to do something to get those people on side. Because in fact, I've seen Hindus are going to vote PPC
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because they hit all the parties. But yeah. And so that's just to say you don't need the GTA,
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although there's bright spots. What you need is Southwestern Ontario, you need Mississauga,
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not Mississauga, blah, Niagara, you want Windsor, you want some of those ridings, you don't need all
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of them, but you want some of them. You want to win East Ontario, you want to grab out one extra Ottawa
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riding, you want to grab out like Thunder Bay, or James Bay, and then you just want it to be a standstill
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in Atlantic Canada. If you can take half or even a third of the Atlantic Canadian provinces, perfect.
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If you can then grab up about 10 seats in BC, great. If you can snag one extra seat in Alberta,
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great. If you can snag one of the three territories, great. We are in business getting a minority
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government. Again, the outskirts of Winnipeg is a great area for the conservatives. So that's just my
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vision for what the conservatives need. If we are getting to that 170 number, or we're even trying to
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get close to have the biggest plurality, you just need to sort of nickel and dime these bedroom
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communities, suburban areas that have a little bit of rural mixed into them, or suburban parts of cities,
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you can pick those up, you're ready to go. So I want to get into some other polls, I want to highlight
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this, I've highlighted this in another video. And this again, this is a secret card in the back pocket
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of the conservatives, that's going to make it far easier on election day. So as we're seeing these big
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rallies, you'll see videos of pure poly of walking outside. And there's like working class guys there
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who couldn't get in because it was too packed, who still want to like shake his hand, you know,
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take a selfie with them. And they're like guys in their like, 20s, they're like 23 year old guys,
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they're not political junkies like myself dressed up like, you know, Steve Urkel here.
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They're guys in hoodies, jeans, they just got off of work, probably working with their hands somewhere,
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and they still want to show up and see pure poly of. Do you think even though maybe those
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guys were too young to vote last election, but those same type of guys, were they showing up
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for O'Toole? Were they showing up for Andrew Scheer? I like Andrew Scheer, but I don't think
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Scheer had the appeal to those type of younger working class men. Were they showing up for Harper
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in 2015? I don't think so. I don't think that group of guys has ever shown up for anyone,
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not even the Liberals, the NDP before. They didn't care. Maybe 2015, that type of guy voted
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for the Liberals because of pot, but not this election. And that is why in the polls, they
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might be heavily underestimating the Liberals because, or the Conservatives, because like
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David Coletto from Abacus Data here shows, 46% of non-voters, people who did not vote in 2021,
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people who are low propensity voters, 46% are going to vote conservative, saying they are
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certain to vote. So these are non-voters saying they will vote this time, 46% voting conservative,
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only 34 voting Liberal, and 11 NDP. And that's a hard group to poll. It's hard to tell because
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I've been talking to some pollsters, talking to people who do poll modeling behind the scenes,
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and they've told me that I am right on, that non-voters might swing all of these polls,
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might show that all these polls are wrong, and the Conservatives might win like 42% in the vote,
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and the Liberals only win like 36% or 35%. Because even if a non-voter is going to show up
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and vote, it's very difficult to tell how big of the national poll or the national vote they're going
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to make up. Because even if they're certain to vote this time, that doesn't mean that those 24-year-old
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guys in their work clothes outside of a rally, they're not going to pick up a poll and answer one.
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They're not going to join Leger and Angus Reid's poll sample online and start answering polls for
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credit cards. They're too busy, you know, working a construction site or they work in some sort of
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auto plant. They're not doing anything. They're landscaping. They're not doing anything online
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or on the phone in the middle of the day. They're electricians. That's not their bag. And so many of
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these pollsters, I had another one show me that their non-2021 voter poll, and again, it's hard to
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get a massive sample size, but they still have like over 100 people answer this question. They said 50%
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of their non-voter polls are showing that they're going for the Conservatives. That is wild. By the
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way, I highlighted this in another video. I really hope the Conservatives do this because it's such a big
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vote getting issue. I helped Kolosovski strategies put together a poll question. They just asked if I
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wanted to include something, if I could generate an interesting idea. And we had agreed on a poll
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about how much immigration should be reduced. And we pitched the idea to people, literally over 1100
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respondents. Would you be okay with cutting immigration by 75% from around 450,000 people a year,
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400,000, I think is exactly what it is right now, down to just 100,000? 75% of respondents
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want the immigration to be reduced to only 100,000 permanent residents a year. And I know there's
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always that kind of PPC guy who's like, why isn't it zero? Well, because you want a little flexibility.
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What happens if a guy is leaving from Iran and he wants to work in oil and gas in Canada and he hates
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the regime there? I'm not just going to be like, well, we don't have any room because we made it
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artificially zero. Make it 100,000, have strict values tests and means tests and make sure that
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people don't bring 10 dependents with them. And I think the immigration system can work. 100,000 is
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well below how many houses we build, which helps a lot of young millennials and Zoomers actually be able
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to buy housing who are still stuck in their parents' basement. Even in our poll, 75% of people wanting
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it to be 100,000. Even the NDP, 58% of NDP voters think that's a good idea. 73% of liberals, 83% of
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conservatives. This is something that I hope Polyev makes a big pivot on because her current promise is
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saying, let's lower it to 200,000 to 250,000 because that's within the range of how many houses we build a
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year. Sure, and I know it's not like each immigrant occupies one house, but you want the deficit of
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immigrants to housing being built to be quite large for at least five to seven years so that
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the markets can all settle back down. I've heard people say to me, well, people wouldn't go for
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that because their housing prices would lower. It's like, guys, I'm taking off my glasses to
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emphasize my seriousness here. Who cares? Who cares? You bought a house in the 90s or the early 2000s for
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like $350,000. And it's like worth 1.7 million now. I get it. It was a great grab. Can you let
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your house price fall $100,000 so that somebody can buy something else? Please. But anyways, I was
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being a little bit snarky here for a second. But I just want to highlight now why exactly I don't trust
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certain pollsters. So I just want to bring up the, what is it the numbers for? I want to bring up the
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ECOS numbers. I'm not trying to be like a cheerleader. I'm not just highlighting polls
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that are good for the conservatives. I do want the conservatives to win. And there are so many
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people who are very doomerish out there. Every time a liberal poll comes out, a good liberal poll,
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they're like, let's leave the country. Let's pretend we're different people, change our names,
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move to Guatemala. It's not helpful. And so I tend to show the bright side of things. But I'm also
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showing the realistic stuff. Because every time I say something about the polls, it tends to work
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out. I've had people come to me like, Wyatt, you were wrong about BC. You thought the BC conservatives
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were going to win. And then they didn't. Like, did you see how tight the election was? I said 75%
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shot they win. The conservatives came within 200 votes in three ridings of winning. So, you know,
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get off my back, man. But here's ECOS numbers. This proves why I discount certain pollsters.
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This is their top line number, if I can find it. This is their, this is the sub numbers. I want to
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find the top line numbers. Their sub numbers were absolutely insane. Okay, I don't think it really
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matters. They had the liberals at like 48% and the conservatives at like 34. It made no sense at
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all. Or actually 50%. See right here? Their poll had the liberals at 50.5, conservatives 33.1,
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new democrats 6.9, and so on and so forth. They have the, they have the liberals leading in Alberta.
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They have the liberals at 45% in Manitoba, 55% in Ontario, in Quebec 46% in the block only at 20%.
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Atlantic Canada 67%. This is why I don't trust pollsters like abacus, sorry, like, like ECOS.
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Abacus Innovative, Cole Solisky, Main Street, Main Street's even fairly bearish on the conservatives.
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They tend to be pretty bearish on the conservative numbers, still have them trailing by like two and
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a half. But they showed the liberals at the start of the race at like five and a half percent,
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six percent lead. And it's been reducing over time as many of those soft liberals move back towards the
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conservatives. But when I see ECOS putting out crap numbers like this, I stop caring what they're saying.
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If you see any pollster say plus nine for any party, they're lying, or at least they suck at their
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jobs. Do you really think this is a plus 10% election, a plus 15% election like this ECOS poll is trying to
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claim for anybody? Not a chance. It's a knife fight. We know it's a knife fight. And we, it's probably
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unlikely that any party is going to win a majority government at this point. I would give a 10% shot
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that the liberals or conservatives get a majority government. It's just not that type of an election
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right now. Even Nanos, when they put out a plus nine for the liberals that has them absolutely
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front running it in Atlantic Canada, like 60%, not a chance. Do you see Polyevs crowds in the
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Atlantic provinces? Do you see the fishermen protesting the liberals? Regular guys, you can
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tell are not party activists, 150 of them showing up because they hate the liberals fishing policies
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in their government. So we're like, what am I supposed to do? I'm not just highlighting things
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because it's great for the conservatives because it doesn't do the conservatives one good thing
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to lie about where they're at. I'm being realistic. I am wanting the conservatives to win and I am
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highlighting numbers that demonstrate the path to victory. I can even show you the liberal path to
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victory as well. It's not as interesting. It's really that they end up basically holding ground.
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They hold on to Kingston and the islands. They hold on to Cambridge. They hold on to Kitchener-Conestoga.
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They very much hold on to these suburban Ontario ridings. They make a few gains in Calgary. They
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make some gains in Edmonton. It's mostly about where the liberals already do well. They hold on
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and they expand. The conservatives have a much more eclectic path to victory. They need one seat
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like in Montreal. They need an extra seat around Quebec City. They need another seat
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out in like the they need to pick up Kingston. It's very much like targeted little areas that they
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need where the liberals are just kind of like these big dense balls of urban ridings and if they can
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expand their appeal a little bit out to the suburbs they can take the whole field. And so I always see
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politics as kind of like a battle map. Like the conservatives will launch their ads and it's like
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we had to hit the area with artillery then you send your troops in to take it. And the conservatives are
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very much in this kind of clean that phase where they have a lot of these suburbs surrounded with rural
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ridings and they need to now suck their volunteers out of those areas and start finding working class
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neighborhoods in some of these communities that are very tired of how condescending the liberals have
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been to people who are working class, people who work with their hands, who work in trades, business
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owners. That's the profile of a conservative voter. The profile of a liberal voter is frankly somebody
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who is retired and wealthy. Not all people, obviously a lot of you might fit that demographic but
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you're conservatives. But there is a type of person who lives in suburban Toronto who is very well off.
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They are insulated from all the bad policies they vote for and they are voting liberal because
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my goodness I can't vote for that that Polyev guy. He's like Trump somehow. And even if you were to
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ask them what Trump's done that's that bad, outside of tariffs they probably couldn't articulate anything.
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I want to highlight this last thing. There's this like mission that CBC has been on. By the way,
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they are being offered another 150 million dollars a year by Mark Carney. They just seem to go around
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and complain that Polyev doesn't let them sit on his lap and like ask them questions all day long,
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even though they've been constantly demonstrated to be like bad actors when they ask questions,
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but take a look at this. This is our last day with the conservative campaign and we have faced some very
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tough message control from the party, not only breaking with tradition in the sense that we are
00:22:11.560
not allowed to accompany the campaign, but also we've seen great control over the questions. We have not
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been allowed to ask any questions during the week that we've been with the conservatives.
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Uh, today we made an effort to get a question and they told us that we could ask one, but that it
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had to be my colleague, Tom Parry, who asked the question. We responded that I was the one who had
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the question and we preferred that I asked it. At that point, they took our question away and gave
00:22:33.800
it to another outlet. We've also seen efforts to find out. Good, good. Don't give them a question.
00:22:38.520
There's this big push liberals are doing right now to like make the CBC one of their big election
00:22:43.160
issues that we're going to save the CBC. How many people watch the CBC? It's like less than two
00:22:48.200
percent of Canadians. And there was this ridiculous article that came out like, oh,
00:22:52.040
but it's hurting rural people to take the CBC away. No, there's no, who do, who do you think
00:22:56.600
rural people are big CBC fans? They don't care. Oh, it's because sometimes CBC will cover something
00:23:01.880
that going on their town. They don't care. They don't care. There's already local outlets. And
00:23:07.000
frankly, a random guy on Facebook is probably doing a better job of keeping up on what's happening on city
00:23:11.960
council. The CBC employee that just reads whatever the council minutes are, writes up a crappy article
00:23:19.080
and quotes the most progressive person on city council and some activist who thinks that everything
00:23:23.000
needs to be rainbow colored. That's all they do. Nobody actually likes these people. And they're like,
00:23:27.880
oh, they took away our question and gave it to another outlet. Sorry, would the CBC cover back in
00:23:32.600
the day when True North and Rebel News and all the other independent outlets were banned from the
00:23:37.880
debates. They were not allowed to ask any questions. And whenever they did get a question
00:23:41.720
after having to sue get to get into debates, they would just get like attacked and bad mouth.
00:23:46.120
Is that not, is that something that the CBC has ever cared about? Of course not.
00:23:49.800
They deserve to take a walk in the snow. I'm like, they won't let us on their private jet.
00:23:53.880
As I said in my last video, um, the conservative campaign is going to spend
00:23:58.280
far less than probably $50 million in total. And you guys have a budget of 1.4 billion.
00:24:05.320
Plus they do get some ad revenue because naturally you cannot run a news outlet that
00:24:09.160
big and not generate some ad revenue. And they are somehow whining that they like,
00:24:14.360
we're not allowed on their private jet. Good, good. Literally anyone should be
00:24:18.280
occupying a seat instead of a CBC report. And CTV news tried to slander Polyev and Brian Patterson
00:24:24.280
at, uh, at like a news conference lat, like, uh, literally yesterday. And we're supposed to be
00:24:29.000
like, oh, the legacy media really needs to be engaged with more. Polyev should do more podcasts,
00:24:33.320
frankly. Anyways, so that should be it for me today, guys. Uh, make sure to like the video,
00:24:38.040
subscribe to the channel, leave a comment, do all that great stuff, keep up with my federal
00:24:41.640
election coverage. And of course, uh, hopefully there's new polling news I can talk about in a
00:24:45.960
week, but I'm going to probably stake, stick more to sort of the rhetorical side of politics
00:24:49.960
in my next few videos. So anyways, see you guys later.