The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Conservatives take 3% lead over Liberals for first time in poll!

00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. We have some very good polling news today for Pierre Polyev and the

00:00:05.780 Conservatives that I feel like vindicates my optimism over the past few weeks even when the

00:00:11.340 polls were showing the Liberals ahead by four or five points. The Conservatives are not just

00:00:16.100 regaining some momentum and reducing the Liberals' lead in many polls, they are actually taking the

00:00:21.540 lead in polls that have never showed them leading during this entire federal election.

00:00:26.160 Main Street Research started out this race showing the Liberals leading the Conservatives by five

00:00:32.880 points and now as of today the Conservatives are leading by three points. That is a major turnaround

00:00:40.680 especially because in the period of the last 22 days at times in the Main Street tracking poll the

00:00:47.500 Liberals were literally leading by seven or eight points. It looked like it was going to be a blood

00:00:52.240 bath but the reason I was optimistic for three weeks is that when you actually went below the

00:00:58.140 national top line number saying where the Liberals and Conservatives were on a national level you saw

00:01:03.920 a lot of weakness with the Liberals. I'm going to get into it in just a second. I just want to do my

00:01:08.680 normal plugs of saying, hey guys, like the video, subscribe to the channel if you're not yet a

00:01:14.020 subscriber and leave a comment on the topic of the day. It really helps the video out on the algorithm

00:01:18.880 and I always like to scroll through and see what you guys think. Got that boilerplate out of the way

00:01:23.880 now we can get into this in more detail. So when I say the Liberals were weak under their surface

00:01:29.700 when you actually pulled voter enthusiasm in even in some of these really trash polls like Angus Reid

00:01:36.000 what you found was that only around half of Liberals were saying they are definitely voting Liberal

00:01:41.380 and then a bunch of people were somewhat likely to show up and then kind of unlikely to show up and

00:01:46.740 then not likely at all to show up. Whereas with Conservatives it was like across the board

00:01:50.920 high levels of voter enthusiasm and we see this in Pierre Polyev's rallies. This is genuinely a unique

00:01:58.620 talent of Pierre Polyev to be able to entertain crowds of thousands of people that not only does

00:02:04.660 Mark Carney lack the ability of, this is an ability that probably politicians in Canada haven't had since

00:02:10.320 the 60s or 50s back when people used to show up in crowds to see a random guy talk about political

00:02:15.580 issues of the day. So right now we have a very fired up Conservative base that is starting to eat

00:02:22.180 into the Liberal numbers. We've seen from 338's voter simulator that in fact the Conservatives could win

00:02:29.200 government even getting a smaller amount of the popular vote than the Liberals and this is because

00:02:36.740 the math for the Conservatives has completely changed. The Conservatives are not just a Western

00:02:42.300 stronghold party that hopes it can grab a couple ridings in the East. In fact the Conservatives could lose

00:02:48.180 a couple of ridings in Alberta and Saskatchewan but win the election because they've become so popular

00:02:54.000 in working class ridings like in Burlington, like in the Hamilton area, Atlantic Canada, Niagara. There's a lot 0.99

00:03:02.100 of working class kind of parts of the country that have swung hard behind the Conservatives because they are

00:03:07.720 so tired of the contempt that the Liberals and to a lesser extent the NDP seem to have for people who

00:03:13.760 actually work with their hands. So I want to get into some of the regionals of what this Main Street

00:03:19.040 poll is showing and sort of how remarkable this comeback really is. It's both remarkable as well

00:03:26.900 as predictable. I just want to get that out there but it is a big comeback considering I was having people

00:03:31.400 dooming all over the place saying what's even the point? Why don't we just move out of the country

00:03:35.880 because the Liberals might win this thing anyways? So going back to day one of the Main Street poll,

00:03:42.300 we had the Liberals at 41%, the Conservatives at 36%, and the one thing I will throw out there is the

00:03:47.960 thing I don't trust Main Street polls for is how low they have the NDP and how often low they also have

00:03:54.140 the Bloc Québécois. I really don't think that the NDP is only going to get 6% of the vote while the

00:04:00.380 PPC, a completely dead in the water party that didn't even get candidates in one quarter of the

00:04:06.120 ridings in terms of they missed one quarter of the ridings. I don't think the NDP is only going to

00:04:10.300 triple the PPC vote. The NDP is probably going to come around 10%, 9%, maybe 11%, and it's mostly

00:04:18.060 going to be at the expense of the Liberals. I think what Main Street has is a sample that is very,

00:04:24.000 very much dominated by hardcore major party supporters. And so when we see the Liberals go

00:04:32.620 from leading by 5% to now the Conservatives leading by 3%, in fact, the lead might be even

00:04:39.500 better than you think when you acknowledge the fact that I don't think, like it shows today,

00:04:44.700 the NDP are at 5% and the Bloc are at 4%. The Bloc have not really done anything to embarrass

00:04:50.000 themselves over the past three and a half years other than the fact that they're the Bloc and we

00:04:54.320 should point and laugh at them more often because it's a Quebec separatist party and I'm an Albertan

00:04:58.720 so I have to cartoonishly dislike them. But they shouldn't be at half of what they had last time,

00:05:04.760 nor is the NDP really only going to come in at 5%. Jagmeet Singh is incompetent, but they have been

00:05:10.320 dumping money into the areas where they want to keep incumbents. So the NDP may lose a portion of their

00:05:16.900 vote, but they're not going to contract from having 18% last election to literally less than

00:05:23.500 a third of it at 5% this election. And if Conservatives are leading even before I make that

00:05:28.580 adjustment, that means the Conservatives may be ahead by anywhere from four to five points.

00:05:34.700 Now I want to bring up some of the sub numbers. I'm only going to show you a small peek, but because

00:05:39.680 I do have to pay for a subscription for Main Street. I don't want to step on Kudo Mackey's toes

00:05:44.960 by just dumping all this data out there. But this is what the poll looks like for this day when you

00:05:51.680 remove all of the undecided voters and you add the leaning voters to the party that they're leaning

00:05:57.220 towards. We have the Conservatives at 44% and Liberals at 42%, NDP 6, Block 2, Greens 2, PPC 1,

00:06:05.620 other 1. Again, I don't really think the NDP and the Block are going to be that low, and if I'm correct,

00:06:11.080 it's going to be at the expense of the Liberals' portion of the vote. But now let's go down and

00:06:17.120 just look at some of the regionals, because this is going to tell you how the election is actually

00:06:22.060 going to shake out in real terms, because obviously this is not just a national popular vote contest,

00:06:27.680 this is a riding-by-riding battle to get into a minority government position, at least,

00:06:33.220 if not a majority, if you're lucky. This is probably not going to be an election where anyone gets a

00:06:38.560 majority. So in Atlantic Canada, we have the Liberals at 57.4% and the Conservatives at 36.6%.

00:06:46.520 This, again, is probably one of those areas of the country that are probably just a little

00:06:51.200 under-polled. We have the unweighted frequency of Atlantic Canada at 68, which means only 68 people

00:06:57.960 from Atlantic Canada responded to the poll asking who they're going to vote for, which means that that

00:07:03.040 is going to be a sample very subject to swinging. And by the way, this is how the law of big numbers

00:07:08.000 works. The more people you poll, generally, the more accurate your poll is going to be,

00:07:12.760 unless you're just micro-targeting tons and tons of people in one very specific part

00:07:16.760 of the region. So when you only poll 68%, the problem is, is that because people in urban areas

00:07:23.260 are going to be more likely to pick up the phone than others or answer the survey online especially,

00:07:29.080 that means that this is going to be a sample heavily favoring urban centers. And it's just not a

00:07:34.340 big sample at all, which means it's also a bit of a problem. It's such a small sample that other,

00:07:38.660 not even PPC, but other, got 2% of the vote. So in Atlantic Canada, and I'm not just trying to wish

00:07:45.440 cast here, I genuinely think we're going to see the Conservatives punch above 40%, and I actually kind

00:07:51.040 of doubt the Liberals are going to be at 57. I bet they're probably going to be more at below 50%,

00:07:58.080 because as unpopular as the NDP is in places like Atlantic Canada, they're more popular than 2.8%.

00:08:04.200 Now, BC. This poll actually, in fact, has the Liberals leading in BC, but again, based on other

00:08:12.200 polls I've seen, it's probably tighter, if not leaning conservative, because this poll also only

00:08:17.240 has NDP at 9.3%, when in fact, this is a province that is both good for the NDP as well as

00:08:25.220 good for the Greens. I actually think they might even have the Greens at 0% here. They have them

00:08:30.600 at 2%, and then they have the People's Party at 0.2%, and other at 1.5%. So this is another

00:08:37.720 area where I think this is a fine stat for the Conservatives, but I could imagine it being better

00:08:42.920 in real life. The real reason the Conservatives are actually really ahead in these polls is that

00:08:47.620 they're just doing massively well in the Prairies as well as Alberta. In Ontario, though, despite this

00:08:55.160 being the place where the Liberals have the most seats to be able to either win or hold

00:09:00.900 on to, it is now becoming a very close knife fight of 43.6% for the Conservatives and 45.6%

00:09:07.780 for the Liberals. Quebec, similarly tight, 44.1% in Quebec for the Liberals, 30.6% for the Conservatives,

00:09:15.840 and 16.5% for the Bloc Québécois. Now, I look at these numbers, and at the same time,

00:09:22.020 I note I don't exactly believe them because I think that Main Street, again, does have a bias

00:09:27.680 towards hardcore supporters that are heavily likely to actually answer their polls. Sometimes if you're

00:09:34.580 not exactly a Quebecer yourself, it's harder to get Quebecers to answer your polls, and a Quebec

00:09:39.300 separatist type of a person is very unlikely to take your poll if it's a company that's not Quebec-based.

00:09:47.580 And so what I think we're actually going to see, and considering that this poll is as good as it is

00:09:53.100 with some dubious points in it, I think what we are going to see is the Conservatives are actually

00:09:58.060 going to do massively well in BC, and then if they can hold the Liberals at neutral in Ontario in terms

00:10:03.840 of both parties basically end off with the same amount of seats, and then the Conservatives can

00:10:09.340 basically also hold off the Liberals in Quebec from making big gains, that means we are probably within

00:10:16.080 a minority government position for the Conservatives. Atlantic Canada, again, is one of those places I

00:10:22.020 could even see the Conservatives tying the Liberals, because based on what we've seen with Tim Houston

00:10:27.000 winning a massive election in Nova Scotia for his re-election, New Brunswick being pretty close

00:10:33.020 in the provincial election, and Newfoundland having all those fishermen protests outside of Mark Carney

00:10:39.820 events, it doesn't feel like this is a part of the country where more than half of people are just

00:10:45.680 simply going to thoughtlessly put a ballot in the ballot box. I know people who live in Nova Scotia,

00:10:51.380 I know people who live in the other maritime provinces, they are not saying that they're going

00:10:56.240 door-to-door and people are rejecting them outright. You would be able to feel going down a street that

00:11:00.940 50% of people are voting for the Liberals. They say it's a battleground where the ridings that the

00:11:06.480 Conservatives don't even currently hold are like one-third of the people saying they're voting

00:11:10.700 Conservative, which is quite good, because that doesn't mean the other two-thirds are all voting Liberal,

00:11:15.460 that means some are voting NDP, some aren't voting at all, you get my point. So what I think that we

00:11:21.720 are also going to see here in the future is that we have a lot of people who are now willing to talk

00:11:28.500 about domestic issues again. The big thing that the Liberals had going for them over the past few

00:11:34.000 weeks is everyone wanted to talk about Trump and the Americans. Once that goes away, and we already see

00:11:39.240 that going away, even in polls again, I'm not a big, I don't trust Ipsos that much, I don't think their

00:11:44.420 samples are great, but even they have showed that the U.S. and Trump has dropped from issue number

00:11:50.180 one down to issue number two and a distant issue number two. The top issue now is affordability in

00:11:55.760 the economy at 44%, and then Trump in the U.S. is down at 24. Ipsos, by the way, their previous poll

00:12:03.040 had the Conservatives losing by like 13 points. You know what their new one's at? I believe it's like

00:12:08.460 the Liberals leading by five. So it went from plus 13 to plus five. Other ones like Nanos have been

00:12:15.780 closing the gap pretty hard. Abacus, which was actually a fairly friendly Conservative pollster

00:12:20.760 for much of the election, showing them leading for a decent bit. It switched Liberal last week,

00:12:25.620 went plus six Liberal, and then the next poll was plus five, and now it's plus three. It is slowly

00:12:33.600 ratcheting back as people are actually starting to take domestic issues seriously. Now again,

00:12:39.420 time is short in this election. We have less than half of the election left to go. So what this means

00:12:46.700 to me is that Pierre Polyev needs to win the debate. It can't be neutral. It can't be they both look good,

00:12:53.540 because if people both look good, then you're going to have a lot of people defaulting to the Liberals if

00:12:57.840 they were already leaning that direction. What Polyev has to do is go to more podcasts to reach out to

00:13:03.180 youth voters who were going to stay home, and he needs to win that debate. Again, it doesn't mean

00:13:08.060 that Carney's pants have to fall off and he falls over and hits his face on the podium. It means that

00:13:12.760 he just needs to be decisively proven to have been a major contributor to the policy failures of the

00:13:19.300 Liberals over the past five years. He was the economic advisor. It should be very easy for Polyev

00:13:24.020 to hit him on that. Polyev needs to hit him on that, and like I've said in a live stream, you hit Carney

00:13:29.760 for being part of the problem, and then you give a policy solution. Hit Carney for being a part of

00:13:33.920 the problem, show that he's just like Trudeau, then hit them with the conservative policy solution.

00:13:38.700 That's what you need to do, because the narrative out of, and he has to somehow do all this with

00:13:43.720 seeming cordial, if a little bit snarky. That's okay, because the Liberal narrative is that he's a

00:13:49.640 bully like Donald Trump, and that he has no plan. So seem lighthearted while still criticizing the

00:13:55.700 Liberals, and then hit them with a detailed policy proposal that you can deliver in a few seconds

00:14:00.760 to prove people wrong. Because what people, you know, what drives votes is oftentimes is what people

00:14:07.920 can feel smug about at work. If you decisively show that Carney has no clue what he's talking about,

00:14:13.200 or he's just showing microwaved Liberal policies, then it kind of takes a lot of the fire out of

00:14:18.800 people who want to vote for the intellectual option. Carney is not the intellectual. And in the French

00:14:23.440 debate, the actual really bad thing for Carney is that he is one of five people on stage, but he is

00:14:29.140 guaranteed to be the worst person in French. The best French speaker is obviously going to be 0.99

00:14:34.540 Blanchet, followed actually by Pendalt, the Green Party leader, because he grew up in Quebec. And then

00:14:39.900 you're going to have Polyev, and then Singh, and then Carney. Although Polyev's French is so good,

00:14:44.720 I really don't think people are going to see a difference with him and the Bloc leader and the Green 0.99

00:14:49.520 Party leader. Singh is in the great position of actually being a better French speaker than

00:14:55.700 Mark Carney. Usually, Singh is easily the worst. And in this election, he's actually going to be

00:15:01.100 decent on the debate stage. If I'm Mark Carney, I'm trying to find an excuse to get off that French 1.00

00:15:06.460 debate stage. Because right now, like what we're seeing in this poll, and again, I think this is

00:15:11.560 heavily overstating the Liberals in Quebec, if they were at 44%, if they drop below like 38,

00:15:18.380 they're in trouble. Now they are only winning Montreal again, and maybe a couple other ridings

00:15:22.840 outside of Montreal, and that's it. In reality, I think they're probably already only at about 39%,

00:15:28.420 40%. And the Bloc is probably more like 20, if not 25. If I actually think the Conservatives aren't

00:15:34.740 probably going to do as well as 30, they'll probably do about 25 in Quebec. But if the Bloc actually surges

00:15:40.400 because of Carney's bad French, you are going to see a very, very quick evaporation in the

00:15:48.360 ability for the Liberals to win, because they need to dominate Quebec, and then they need to win

00:15:52.820 like, well over half the seats in Ontario. And if that doesn't happen, they are out of the ballgame.

00:15:58.440 Anyways, so that should be it for me in this video, guys. Just a quick polling update, although I always

00:16:04.260 go on for a long time, so it probably doesn't feel that quick. Conservatives are doing well, pretty much

00:16:08.780 all the polls are showing them gaining momentum again, even if they were just trash pollsters. I tend to put 0.98

00:16:14.160 pollsters in three categories. There are conservative-friendly pollsters on average,

00:16:18.620 which are, I would say, Kolsovsky, Abacus, and Innovation, or Innovative. Doesn't mean they always

00:16:25.120 show the Conservatives leading, but they tend to have good samples for picking up on Conservative

00:16:29.100 voters out there. There are the people who are not kind to the Conservatives. That would be the

00:16:33.480 Main Streets. That would be Leger, Liaison, Research Co., Polera. And then there are the gutter trash

00:16:40.520 pollsters, in my opinion, which are Ecos and Angus Reid. Do not listen to them. Their poll 0.99

00:16:45.860 samples make no sense. If anyone says that somebody is leading in this election by more than eight

00:16:50.980 points, they're lying because, no, they're not. This is a knife-fight election, and make sure you

00:16:56.780 go out and vote early, because I want those voter lines on election day. Do not scare away those less

00:17:02.380 likely to vote people who think they'll stand in line to vote Conservative for 30 minutes,

00:17:07.560 but as soon as it gets to 45 or 50 minutes, they're out. So make sure if you're definitely

00:17:12.080 voting Conservative, please vote early. So anyways, that's it for me today, guys. I'm traveling to

00:17:17.820 Ottawa, probably when you're watching this video, to go help out in the Nepean riding and to try and

00:17:23.260 defeat Mark Carney in that riding that he's running in. So if you live in the area, you might want to

00:17:28.200 help out Barbara Ball or go to Kanata. These are winnable ridings in the Ottawa area that are usually

00:17:34.060 not on the table for the Conservatives at all. So I want to make sure I get out there, actually hit

00:17:38.600 doors, put my money where my mouth is, because I don't want to just tell you guys to volunteer.

00:17:42.520 I'm going to volunteer as well. So anyways, see you guys later.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - April 14, 2025

Conservatives take 3% lead over Liberals for first time in poll!

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