The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Conservatives up 19% over Liberals - Canadians not buying Trudeau Liberal rebrand

00:00:00.000 There is very good news out today for the federal conservatives on the national polling front.

00:00:05.600 While other pollsters are showing the liberals surging under the hypothetical leadership of Mark Carney,

00:00:12.600 Abacus Data just released results that they in fact double-checked with two separate surveys

00:00:17.620 that shows while the liberals are up a bit since Trudeau announced that he'll be resigning in March,

00:00:22.940 they're not up that significantly, and I think it stood to reason that just swapping out Justin Trudeau

00:00:30.100 with Chrystia Freeland or Mark Carney or somebody else wasn't really going to make the government

00:00:35.500 that much more popular than it already isn't.

00:00:39.320 Anyways, before I get into the exact details, I just want to give you guys a reminder,

00:00:44.180 make sure to like this video, subscribe to the channel if you want more polling updates

00:00:48.700 and me to cover other stories.

00:00:50.220 If you like this show, definitely subscribe. I'm trying to reach 100,000 by mid-December of this year.

00:00:55.320 And leave a comment, especially comment on what you think about the accuracy of Abacus Data here

00:01:00.780 as well as the other pollsters.

00:01:02.500 I don't think the other pollsters are just making stuff up like ECOS might be.

00:01:07.200 I think the other pollsters are just not correcting for a response bias.

00:01:11.120 The liberal leadership is engaging a lot of liberals, so they're more likely to take polls now,

00:01:15.560 which means they are more likely to look like they're artificially up.

00:01:18.720 And I think Abacus Data has a better methodology to make sure that the demographics of people

00:01:24.100 taking the poll are not completely unbalanced.

00:01:26.480 Because when you make a poll, you have to assume who's going to show up and vote.

00:01:30.640 And I think a lot of these other pollsters are like, oh, 65% women are going to vote?

00:01:34.440 That makes sense.

00:01:35.560 And then they're just like putting up these polls that show the liberals significantly up

00:01:39.480 because the demographics entering the polls are more liberal.

00:01:43.000 Anyways, not to insult women, obviously, although women are more likely to vote NDP or liberal.

00:01:47.580 Not any of you women watching this. 1.00

00:01:49.600 Anyways, but here is the poll results from Abacus Data from the two separate surveys they ran to

00:01:55.760 double check their numbers.

00:01:57.320 It shows the conservatives currently at 46% or 45%, depending on the survey, the liberals

00:02:03.640 at 27 or 25, the NDP at 15 or 17, block 7 or 8, and so on and so forth.

00:02:11.360 These numbers, to me, strike me as very realistic.

00:02:14.640 Maybe I think the conservatives could be down to around 44% or 43% if it's a good day for

00:02:21.480 the liberals.

00:02:22.520 But the thing that cannot be avoided here is Pyro Polyev is a very popular leader right

00:02:28.060 now.

00:02:28.620 He has a positive approval rating, which is very tough to pull off as a conservative because

00:02:33.280 the media is against you.

00:02:34.680 A lot of conventional wisdom in Canadian politics is that the conservatives are the dark, unfriendly

00:02:40.880 party that just cut stuff.

00:02:42.420 They don't care about people. 1.00

00:02:44.680 It's a stupid media and left-wing political narrative, but a lot of people believe it. 0.99

00:02:49.420 So the fact that the conservative leader has a positive approval rating of like three or 0.99

00:02:54.160 four points is actually very telling about how well-liked they are, whereas Jagmeet Singh

00:02:59.860 and Justin Trudeau are way down.

00:03:02.060 Maybe Mark Carney has a positive approval rating once he becomes a liberal leader.

00:03:07.440 The problem with that and the problem with the polls that were coming up from Leger showing

00:03:11.460 that if Mark Carney is the leader, the federal liberals and conservatives are tied at 37%.

00:03:16.600 Nobody knows who he is.

00:03:18.720 Yes, there's a certain type of older Canadian who remembers him as the governor of the Bank

00:03:22.940 of Canada, and maybe there's a certain nostalgia for old names from the early 2000s in politics.

00:03:28.780 I really don't think the average Canadian cares about Mark Carney.

00:03:33.440 This feels like a repeat of Michael Ignatieff, that because so many liberals bought Michael

00:03:38.880 Ignatieff's books and they've been watching him on TV and at book talks for so long that

00:03:43.780 he must be a superstar.

00:03:45.820 And he's just not.

00:03:47.240 He's some random guy that liberal insiders and liberal party members might like, but the

00:03:52.160 average Canadian doesn't care. 0.64

00:03:54.040 And that person has just awful likability ratings and name recognition when you get right down

00:03:59.280 to it.

00:04:00.080 This feels like a Kamala Harris repeat, but in Canada, when you swap out Trudeau with

00:04:05.240 Mark Carney.

00:04:06.600 Anyways, I want to get into some of these other numbers.

00:04:10.560 David Coletto is doing a really good job, I think, at Abacus Data because he's been very

00:04:14.960 transparent about the way that they balance their model.

00:04:18.520 Because again, what you don't want to do, like I said before, is have way too many young 1.00

00:04:22.700 people answering your poll, or way too many men or way too many women, because that's

00:04:27.420 a value judgment.

00:04:29.600 Elections tend to look decently similar election to election.

00:04:33.060 You can take certain things for granted.

00:04:35.140 Women show up a little bit more than men. 1.00

00:04:37.500 Older voters show up much more than younger voters.

00:04:40.520 But the thing is that those things get really out of whack, like you are way over polling

00:04:44.680 older voters in the GTA or in Montreal areas, or you have too many women, like 60% of the 1.00

00:04:50.620 people answering your poll are women, and you don't properly rebalance that, your poll 1.00

00:04:54.480 results are not going to look like a real election.

00:04:57.820 That is why you have to re-weight things, because young people are very unlikely to take 1.00

00:05:01.700 a poll.

00:05:02.280 They are disproportionately unlikely to take a poll, then they are even likely to vote.

00:05:07.560 Young people don't vote very much, but they take polls even less, so you actually usually 1.00

00:05:11.480 have to weight their results up to actually reflect what turnout would look like.

00:05:15.800 But here is what David Coletto put out.

00:05:19.220 He says, in our Apicus data poll, the big reason why I'm a bit skeptical that the conservative

00:05:24.160 vote is collapsing is this crosstab, and he's talking about other pollsters showing the

00:05:28.500 conservative vote collapsing.

00:05:30.180 And I agree with him.

00:05:31.440 The liberals are definitely up, because their voters are no longer depressed, thinking they're

00:05:36.340 going to have to vote for Justin Trudeau a fourth time.

00:05:39.000 But it makes no sense that they'd be digging into conservative votes.

00:05:42.280 Maybe the Bloc in Quebec, and maybe the NDP elsewhere, but they're really significantly

00:05:48.040 eating into the conservative vote.

00:05:49.740 I kind of doubt it, because the conservatives have been a pretty stable home for people

00:05:54.080 to park their vote over the past couple of years, and Polyev hasn't done anything to

00:05:58.060 embarrass himself that would make people question who they're going to vote for.

00:06:01.380 But here is David Coletto's chart on current and past vote, and look at this.

00:06:06.780 2021 federal conservatives, 89% of them are still saying that they're voting conservative.

00:06:13.360 2% liberal, 2% NDP, 1 green, 1 Bloc, and 3% undecided.

00:06:18.320 That is not the same for the other parties.

00:06:21.020 I'll zoom in a little bit more so it's easier to see.

00:06:23.960 But 2021 liberal voters are 15% likely to be voting conservative.

00:06:29.960 7% for the Greens, 2% for the NDP, 2% for the Bloc.

00:06:33.760 And that's massive, considering that's a major chunk in Quebec.

00:06:37.360 NDP are 14% likely to vote conservative.

00:06:40.920 12% for the Liberals, and that's where the Liberals are eating into the NDP quite a bit.

00:06:46.020 But also the conservatives are too.

00:06:48.220 In fact, more than the Liberals are.

00:06:50.620 And 60% of NDP voters are going to be voting NDP again.

00:06:54.680 Did not vote is actually still leaning towards the conservatives.

00:06:58.420 They're still 39% undecided, and that's significant.

00:07:01.460 But did not vote is only going 18% to the Liberals and 10% to the NDP.

00:07:07.340 This is the problem.

00:07:08.660 The buckets available for the Liberals to sort of draw votes out of is kind of running dry at this point.

00:07:16.580 Federal conservatives from 2021 are still probably voting conservative,

00:07:20.600 especially as the party has actually gotten more conservative.

00:07:23.680 If they still had Aaron O'Toole around, I guarantee that federal conservative voters would be in the same position that Liberal and NDP voters are.

00:07:32.480 That if some red Tory hack is the leader, maybe they're going to vote, you know, PPC.

00:07:38.540 Maybe they're going to vote for another alternative party, and they're probably just going to stay home.

00:07:43.000 Because that's what happened under O'Toole.

00:07:44.620 Now that the Liberals are supposedly having all this excitement behind them, why isn't that their vote is reconsolidating behind their own party?

00:07:53.420 If you, the death number I've always heard, is if you're trying to scratch, you should be starting at default with 75% of your vote from the last election willing to come and vote for you again this time.

00:08:06.100 It's the exact same party in theory, so the exact same sort of people should be interested in showing back up.

00:08:12.180 If you're below 75%, and especially if you're below 70%, they're at 60%, that's where your party is like just having to save the furniture.

00:08:21.200 And I think that this is why we should maybe conceive Mark Carney's leadership, or even Chrystia Freeland,

00:08:27.020 as the person who's going to try and save as many Liberal seats as possible.

00:08:30.920 I've seen the chart on how this current polling for the Liberals affects their seat counts.

00:08:37.460 This polling bump they've gotten from like 21% to 27% does save them in Toronto and Montreal.

00:08:44.960 I'm going to get to the Atlantic and Ontario BC polling, because those are the major swing provinces.

00:08:51.680 The Liberals are definitely up in those provinces right now from where they were previously.

00:08:57.780 And I think it is absolutely realistic.

00:09:01.120 In fact, maybe they're even a little bit higher than this.

00:09:03.800 But from when Trudeau first stepped down, they were at 23%, 22% in BC, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada.

00:09:13.540 Now they've surged up to 30%, and the Conservatives are a little bit down, and they're at 46% now.

00:09:19.460 That makes sense.

00:09:20.520 There's a lot of metropolitan voters who default Liberal as long as the leader isn't entirely embarrassing.

00:09:26.640 So many of those people who were only recently considering voting Conservative are back to voting Liberal.

00:09:34.600 And so that 30%, when you actually put it into models, and I've seen the Quebec polling,

00:09:40.460 it's about similar where the Liberals were falling down to mid-20s, and now they might be in low 30s again,

00:09:46.220 a little bit behind the block.

00:09:47.960 They're still losing seats on the island of Montreal.

00:09:50.680 They lose one to the Block, and they lose one to the Conservatives.

00:09:53.540 I'm basing this off of Sheree Attiste's polling model.

00:09:56.820 He does a really good website, polywave.ca, where he models out the elections.

00:10:01.900 I think that you guys should go and check it out.

00:10:04.200 But he shows that while the Conservatives grab one seat in Montreal, sorry, on Mount Royal,

00:10:09.600 on the island of Montreal, on the Block, grab one seat, the Liberals still grab one seat back from the NDP.

00:10:16.160 I'm not sure if that would actually happen, because I know that local NDP MP is pretty popular.

00:10:21.760 So I think that oftentimes when a party only has one seat in a region, it's easy to assume that they're going to lose it

00:10:28.080 based on their polling number, even though all that support's probably coming from that one riding.

00:10:32.740 The Liberals are still losing seats on the island of Montreal.

00:10:35.000 So right now, even if the Liberals go from 27% to 30%, that is probably simply the Liberals buying back all the seats

00:10:43.980 that they should already be winning by default.

00:10:46.700 Toronto should be a default for the Liberals, at least most of the downtown GTA.

00:10:51.320 They should be winning Montreal by default.

00:10:53.660 They should be winning many of the very downtown parts of Vancouver by default.

00:10:59.260 Winnipeg by default.

00:11:00.440 But right now, they probably are still out like a good dozen seats in those areas

00:11:05.660 that actually shouldn't really be in contention.

00:11:09.080 Anyways, I want to go down and also look at some other indicators of popularity here.

00:11:16.360 Oh, and here's a good chart on how the party would be faring under Mark Carney and Christia Freeland.

00:11:22.460 This, to me, reads way more realistic.

00:11:25.880 When I see that, because this is the problem with the Leger poll,

00:11:28.860 I don't really need to bring it up for you guys, you can trust me.

00:11:31.860 When they polled Christia Freeland as the leader in the Leger poll,

00:11:35.800 the Liberals came out at like 28%, and the Conservatives were at like 43%.

00:11:40.580 Sounds decently realistic to me, but when they slot in Mark Carney,

00:11:45.540 the parties were again, like I said before, tied at 37-37.

00:11:49.660 Why is Mark Carney polling so much better than Christia Freeland?

00:11:53.480 That really just feels like response bias.

00:11:56.260 You have a lot of pro-Carni people answering the poll.

00:11:59.560 You have a disproportionate amount of federal Liberals answering the poll

00:12:03.020 because they're less depressed that Trudeau is no longer their leader,

00:12:06.680 and they're picking up the phone at a rate of 90%,

00:12:09.300 whereas a federal Conservative is only picking up the phone and answering a poll at the rate of 60%,

00:12:14.100 and an NDP person is so unmotivated to pick up the poll

00:12:17.080 because they secretly really don't like Jagmeet Singh. 0.50

00:12:20.040 Many of the certain-to-vote NDP voters think Jagmeet Singh is a complete putz.

00:12:24.120 But anyways, so that might end up being what it is.

00:12:28.260 It's a bunch of Carney people picking up the phone,

00:12:30.440 and they know once they get to the question,

00:12:32.180 who would you vote for if Christia Freeland's the leader, 0.98

00:12:34.860 they're going to say Conservative,

00:12:36.120 and then when it gets to Carney, they're going to say Carney

00:12:38.180 because they want to sort of, you know, support their boy.

00:12:42.220 Anyways, but yeah, this numbers from Abacus Data shows that

00:12:46.260 the top line, the 2021 vote, a lot of people,

00:12:50.780 oh, wait, this is the wrong, no, no, this is the wrong one.

00:12:53.360 I'm just looking at the wrong page.

00:12:55.000 That when generic Liberal, like current Trudeau Liberals,

00:12:58.700 they poll 27%.

00:13:00.220 Christia Freeland polls all the way down at 21%,

00:13:03.540 but I suspect that, like, it's showing,

00:13:06.420 the NDP just ends up eating her lunch, 1.00

00:13:08.220 and there's probably a lot of undecideds here.

00:13:10.160 I don't think Christia Freeland would do that bad,

00:13:12.720 especially because I think anyone would be more likely

00:13:15.600 to vote Liberal if it's not Trudeau,

00:13:17.760 but Carney only gets a 28 in this poll,

00:13:20.900 28% to the Poly of Conservatives, 45%,

00:13:23.720 and the NDP is down at 12%.

00:13:26.100 So what we've consistently found is if Carney is the leader,

00:13:30.360 whether he surges up really close to the Conservatives

00:13:33.380 or not, like this Abacus Data poll is showing,

00:13:37.500 NDPers seem susceptible to wanting to vote Liberal

00:13:40.960 to stop Pollyup, I suppose.

00:13:43.440 I still need to see that to believe it,

00:13:46.140 especially as this Liberal leadership race goes on

00:13:48.820 and any chinks in Carney's armor is shown.

00:13:52.040 I don't think that he would be able to steal

00:13:53.920 that many NDP voters.

00:13:55.880 I think that the NDP, frankly, is a bit of a cult,

00:13:59.440 and I think that it's going to be very difficult

00:14:02.840 to push the NDP below 15%.

00:14:04.940 I just did a podcast today with Brian Berguet,

00:14:07.780 and he correctly points out there is kind of a Marxist union base

00:14:12.620 to the NDP.

00:14:13.620 Those people would consider it a betrayal of themselves

00:14:16.500 not to be voting NDP.

00:14:18.160 And the only people that you can really win over

00:14:20.280 is maybe like, you know, the kind of school teacher

00:14:22.780 who votes NDP, but they really hate Pollyup,

00:14:25.600 you know, the middle class, socially progressive voter,

00:14:28.820 but who wants to stop Pollyup.

00:14:30.960 But in general, that's a pretty rare thing to do.

00:14:33.380 Most voters don't think in such an esoteric way

00:14:36.160 that I'm going to vote to stop this guy.

00:14:39.600 Some people do it, but not really, you know, that much.

00:14:44.460 This is a good poll to look at

00:14:46.400 when it comes to direction of the country and the world.

00:14:48.840 You can ignore the country bit,

00:14:50.800 but Canada, with the direction of Canada polling

00:14:53.400 in terms of positive ratings at only 24%,

00:14:58.020 that's another way of saying the current government

00:15:00.840 is not very popular.

00:15:02.420 I want to see if they had a government result.

00:15:04.400 Yeah, the government does have an approval rating poll.

00:15:07.280 They've been getting better since Trudeau has stepped down,

00:15:10.280 which was predictable,

00:15:11.680 but still 56% of people disapprove

00:15:14.700 of the government's current job performance

00:15:16.880 and only 27% approve.

00:15:20.220 I don't think I have to tell you

00:15:22.040 that that is not a winning coalition.

00:15:24.500 And it is completely reflected

00:15:26.640 in what the liberals have in this poll.

00:15:28.980 The liberals poll at 27%.

00:15:31.040 The amount of people who approve of the government

00:15:33.340 is at 27%.

00:15:35.160 Carney, I don't think, will want an early election.

00:15:38.600 There's a rumor that in March,

00:15:40.300 he's going to call an election ASAP.

00:15:42.700 That's unrealistic for a few reasons.

00:15:44.820 One, the government is still not very well-liked,

00:15:48.700 and I think Carney is going to want time

00:15:50.340 to try and pass a few policies

00:15:51.760 to artificially inflate his approval rating,

00:15:54.840 you know, pass a few giveaway programs,

00:15:56.720 something like that.

00:15:57.520 And then the second thing is more of

00:15:59.800 like an election procedural issue

00:16:01.920 that the liberals have a lot of people

00:16:04.220 not running for re-election.

00:16:05.840 And they haven't really appointed

00:16:07.380 or nominated a lot of people in these ridings.

00:16:10.840 And it's kind of a bad move

00:16:12.660 not to have a nomination

00:16:13.900 or at least appoint someone well ahead of time

00:16:16.340 so that they get to interact in a local area,

00:16:18.500 do some early campaigning.

00:16:19.960 You really can't just slot in a warm body

00:16:22.140 and have them go and hit the doors. 0.92

00:16:24.080 Or it does rub a lot of people the wrong way.

00:16:26.420 A lot of people don't care

00:16:27.720 and they'll vote for whatever party

00:16:28.820 they were already going to vote for.

00:16:30.300 But you have a capacity

00:16:31.880 to have 5% of your vote go elsewhere

00:16:34.120 if people feel a little bit jibbed

00:16:36.300 having had no input

00:16:38.040 or no time to meet the liberal candidate.

00:16:41.760 This poll does show

00:16:43.080 Polyev's approval rating

00:16:45.320 dipping a little bit into the negatives.

00:16:47.740 Again, I think that this is just

00:16:49.580 the idea that some people who,

00:16:51.920 like a small portion of voters

00:16:53.880 who were going to vote conservative

00:16:55.680 because they hated Trudeau.

00:16:57.660 Now that Trudeau's gone,

00:16:59.020 they're willing to flip back.

00:17:00.520 Now they're willing to say,

00:17:01.420 I don't like Polyev.

00:17:03.260 Again, I'm having to explain

00:17:05.540 the psychology of humans.

00:17:06.860 There's a lot of people who,

00:17:08.680 if they're voting conservative,

00:17:09.700 they'll say they like Polyev.

00:17:10.760 As soon as they decide to switch back,

00:17:12.040 they don't like Polyev.

00:17:13.420 But these are still decently good approval ratings

00:17:15.740 for Mr. Polyev.

00:17:17.240 42% disapproval to 39% approval

00:17:19.900 is often as good as a conservative

00:17:22.280 is ever going to be able to hope for.

00:17:24.740 Sometimes he's above water,

00:17:26.220 sometimes he's below water.

00:17:27.980 But if you looked at Aaron O'Toole's

00:17:29.400 approval ratings,

00:17:30.260 it was abysmal,

00:17:31.420 and Aaron O'Toole did only

00:17:33.000 everything he possibly could

00:17:34.480 to make people like him.

00:17:36.500 Jagmeet Singh,

00:17:37.680 definitely still not liked.

00:17:39.040 He has a disapproval rating of 40%

00:17:41.100 and an approval rating of just 29%.

00:17:45.020 Again, it's because everyone

00:17:47.020 can only see Jagmeet Singh

00:17:49.100 as Justin Trudeau's water boy.

00:17:51.080 In fact, this might be,

00:17:52.940 yeah, it actually is

00:17:54.120 his worst rating ever

00:17:55.240 because back when he had

00:17:56.320 only a 29% approval in the past,

00:17:58.940 his disapproval was not nearly as high.

00:18:02.160 And mark my words,

00:18:04.020 a lot of NDP voters, in fact,

00:18:06.080 are part of the group of people

00:18:07.340 who don't like him.

00:18:08.440 A lot of liberal people

00:18:09.720 probably actually like him, in fact, 0.99

00:18:11.680 because of how useless he is 0.99

00:18:13.260 and how willing he is 1.00

00:18:14.340 to do whatever the liberals say.

00:18:17.020 And here is the thing

00:18:18.740 that David Coletto from Abacus Data

00:18:21.480 had hinted at a couple days ago

00:18:23.560 as the significant thing

00:18:25.220 for the liberals,

00:18:25.960 demonstrating that there is bounce back,

00:18:28.040 but it's not as big as you would think.

00:18:30.160 Back in December of 2024

00:18:32.540 and into January

00:18:33.640 when Justin Trudeau

00:18:34.780 is announcing he'll resign,

00:18:36.360 the liberals are at only 11% and 12%

00:18:39.800 in terms of how many people

00:18:42.100 want them reelected as the government.

00:18:43.940 That doesn't mean

00:18:44.960 you still won't vote

00:18:45.760 for your local guy.

00:18:46.860 It's saying,

00:18:47.360 do you want these people

00:18:48.400 to actually be government?

00:18:50.080 Because there is, again,

00:18:51.640 human psychology.

00:18:52.800 A lot of people

00:18:53.660 like their local MP.

00:18:55.100 That guy can do no wrong

00:18:56.260 because he once shook my hand.

00:18:57.700 But Trudeau's government,

00:18:58.940 I don't like them.

00:19:00.000 So that's why these numbers

00:19:01.260 are kind of out of step

00:19:02.380 with the actual

00:19:03.080 national liberal approval rating.

00:19:05.160 And right now,

00:19:06.300 they're at 19% of people

00:19:07.720 who want them reelected,

00:19:09.080 which is better than anything

00:19:10.480 that they had in 2024.

00:19:13.060 And it's probably better

00:19:14.020 than anything they really had

00:19:15.340 in much of 2023.

00:19:18.500 Accessible voter pool.

00:19:19.760 This is a good one

00:19:20.680 for people to look at.

00:19:22.040 And this is saying,

00:19:22.880 how many people

00:19:23.300 will even consider voting for you?

00:19:25.400 The conservatives

00:19:26.040 outside of Quebec

00:19:27.240 are riding at 50%

00:19:29.620 in Ontario and BC.

00:19:32.040 And I don't doubt

00:19:32.740 that is also the same

00:19:33.820 in Atlantic Canada.

00:19:35.160 In all the swing provinces,

00:19:36.560 over half of people

00:19:37.500 will consider voting liberal.

00:19:39.040 Oh, sorry, conservative.

00:19:39.620 But with the liberals,

00:19:41.700 into Ontario,

00:19:42.580 they're a little bit

00:19:43.160 below water.

00:19:44.900 That's not looking

00:19:45.580 too bad for them.

00:19:46.920 But the problem here is

00:19:48.040 when you go to 2021 liberals,

00:19:49.640 only 84,

00:19:50.840 sorry, 81% of them

00:19:52.140 will consider voting liberal,

00:19:53.900 whereas 34% of 2021 liberals

00:19:56.980 will consider voting conservative.

00:19:58.560 But 100% of current conservatives

00:20:01.180 are, of course,

00:20:01.780 voting conservative,

00:20:02.700 and 15% are considering

00:20:04.940 voting liberal.

00:20:06.300 That's really not enough

00:20:07.560 to claw anyone significant away.

00:20:09.620 considering that many of them,

00:20:11.840 the 21 liberals,

00:20:13.080 are even considering

00:20:13.760 going MVP and green.

00:20:15.200 So, yeah.

00:20:16.840 Anyways,

00:20:17.320 that's probably a little bit

00:20:18.220 more of a money statistic.

00:20:19.500 We don't need to keep

00:20:20.140 talking about this stuff.

00:20:22.580 This is one of those things

00:20:23.960 that's probably fueling

00:20:25.120 the current liberal rise

00:20:26.380 in the polls,

00:20:26.860 which actually shows

00:20:27.640 that there might be

00:20:28.840 a chance that the liberals

00:20:30.000 still fall once again.

00:20:31.780 Current issue

00:20:32.520 that everyone chooses,

00:20:33.820 because I believe

00:20:34.300 you choose three issues

00:20:35.460 or a couple issues.

00:20:37.800 62% of people

00:20:39.080 name the top issue

00:20:40.700 for them

00:20:41.180 as the rise

00:20:42.240 in the cost of living.

00:20:43.620 42% say Donald Trump

00:20:45.200 and his administration.

00:20:46.580 And then the other ones

00:20:47.480 are what you'd expect,

00:20:48.600 health care,

00:20:49.220 housing,

00:20:49.760 economy,

00:20:50.200 and immigration.

00:20:51.600 I think once

00:20:52.660 the Donald Trump

00:20:53.280 administration issue

00:20:54.500 goes out of the headlines,

00:20:56.200 obviously there's a capacity

00:20:57.400 for it to stick around.

00:20:58.660 Maybe we get into a trade war

00:20:59.840 and that helps out

00:21:00.460 Mark Carney a lot.

00:21:01.660 But right now,

00:21:02.240 their bump is probably

00:21:03.220 on the back of the idea

00:21:04.280 that I'm voting liberal

00:21:05.520 because I want to be

00:21:07.020 a progressive resistance fighter

00:21:08.680 against the Trump administration.

00:21:11.920 I'm not sure

00:21:12.840 if that's a winning

00:21:13.440 federal platform.

00:21:14.820 Really not,

00:21:15.680 especially because,

00:21:16.860 and I talked about this

00:21:17.700 with Brian Berguet,

00:21:18.960 the conservatives

00:21:19.520 have the capacity

00:21:20.480 of cutting off the liberals 0.88

00:21:22.180 and becoming

00:21:22.920 the more pro-Canada party.

00:21:24.960 In fact,

00:21:25.720 the conservatives

00:21:26.200 are running on a slogan

00:21:27.280 of Canada first,

00:21:28.760 which the liberals

00:21:29.440 tried to imply

00:21:30.240 was racist, 0.82

00:21:31.060 even though

00:21:32.060 Polyev in his statement

00:21:33.620 of Canada first,

00:21:34.600 Canada last,

00:21:35.180 and Canada always

00:21:35.940 is literally quoting

00:21:37.500 liberal prime minister

00:21:38.940 Sir Wilfrid Laurier.

00:21:40.700 That's how bad

00:21:41.620 the liberals are at this.

00:21:42.660 So the conservatives

00:21:43.800 by saying

00:21:44.660 that they want to build

00:21:45.520 like, you know,

00:21:46.080 military bases

00:21:46.780 in a Caluet

00:21:47.600 and they want to have

00:21:48.560 a more Canada first

00:21:49.740 immigration plan

00:21:50.700 and they want to crack down

00:21:51.760 on drugs and whatnot,

00:21:53.640 that the liberals

00:21:54.300 not willing to also

00:21:55.460 commit to those things

00:21:56.460 end up looking like

00:21:57.900 their Canada nationalism

00:21:59.740 is very hollow.

00:22:01.060 which in fact it is,

00:22:02.540 their Canadian nationalism

00:22:04.340 or patriotism

00:22:05.360 is based solely around

00:22:06.780 the fact that they

00:22:07.400 don't like Americans, 0.99

00:22:08.580 where conservative Canadians

00:22:09.940 can truly say

00:22:10.800 that they don't hate Americans,

00:22:11.800 they just like being Canadian.

00:22:14.340 Anyways,

00:22:14.940 so that's probably it

00:22:16.800 for me today, guys.

00:22:18.040 I do hope that

00:22:19.020 the Polyev conservatives 0.93

00:22:20.120 correct a little bit

00:22:21.400 of their immigration proposal

00:22:22.920 they recently made.

00:22:24.160 They said they want

00:22:24.980 to have a range

00:22:25.720 of immigration

00:22:26.320 for new permanent residents

00:22:27.440 per year

00:22:27.900 of around $200,000,

00:22:29.640 $250,000.

00:22:31.060 I think it needs to be

00:22:31.980 $100,000 to $150,000.

00:22:34.660 They want it in the range

00:22:35.820 of how many houses

00:22:36.560 are constructed per year,

00:22:37.960 but the problem is

00:22:39.060 there's a lot of people

00:22:40.160 who haven't been able

00:22:41.000 to move out

00:22:41.520 of their parents' house

00:22:42.380 who would like to buy a house,

00:22:43.840 and so simply bringing in

00:22:45.480 as many immigrants 1.00

00:22:46.140 as you make houses

00:22:47.000 is basically just

00:22:48.280 holding the price steady

00:22:49.340 when currently

00:22:50.180 the price is too high

00:22:51.280 and we need to cut

00:22:52.320 immigration enough 0.75

00:22:53.160 so that the price of housing

00:22:54.580 could actually fall

00:22:55.660 and that more people

00:22:56.680 can actually gain access

00:22:57.720 to housing.

00:22:59.060 So that's one thing

00:23:00.100 I hope the conservatives do.

00:23:01.400 Polyev in two days

00:23:02.360 is doing a Canada First rally

00:23:03.800 to kind of kickstart

00:23:05.580 his campaign over again

00:23:07.160 because obviously

00:23:07.780 it's no longer

00:23:08.520 the carbon tax election,

00:23:10.040 it's the Canada First election,

00:23:11.660 which is a smart pivot

00:23:12.620 to be making.

00:23:13.920 And other than that,

00:23:15.480 I don't think there's

00:23:15.980 really much news to cover.

00:23:18.040 Debate for the liberals

00:23:19.040 isn't going to be

00:23:19.760 for another 10 days.

00:23:21.020 We will be covering that

00:23:21.960 when it happens.

00:23:22.620 But again, guys,

00:23:24.400 if you like the channel,

00:23:25.340 make sure to like this video,

00:23:26.820 subscribe,

00:23:27.500 about 70% of you

00:23:28.720 are probably not yet subscribers,

00:23:30.480 and make sure

00:23:31.440 to leave a comment.

00:23:32.620 By the way,

00:23:33.400 I would like to commend

00:23:34.460 the several of you

00:23:35.480 who watched the show

00:23:36.500 who ended up

00:23:37.640 actually signing up

00:23:38.720 to be New Blue Party

00:23:40.000 of Ontario candidates

00:23:41.480 for the provincial election.

00:23:43.800 Very good job, everyone.

00:23:45.280 I was told by

00:23:46.200 New Blue Party people 0.86

00:23:48.040 that they specifically

00:23:49.120 signed up after

00:23:49.980 watching the show.

00:23:51.480 So good.

00:23:52.020 Doug Ford is a liberal hack.

00:23:54.500 Everyone,

00:23:54.900 if you live in Ontario,

00:23:55.940 please vote for

00:23:56.540 the New Blue Party

00:23:57.280 of Ontario.

00:23:58.500 The Ford liberals,

00:24:00.140 Freudian slip,

00:24:01.740 the Ford PCs

00:24:02.420 are basically just

00:24:03.940 Trudeau liberals

00:24:04.660 to the point

00:24:05.260 that the Crombie liberals

00:24:06.740 provincially

00:24:07.400 are criticizing Ford

00:24:09.140 as being too much

00:24:10.120 like Trudeau.

00:24:11.360 It's wild in Ontario

00:24:12.840 right now.

00:24:13.920 Anyways,

00:24:14.640 so that's it.

00:24:15.620 See you guys later.

00:24:16.280 Jeff Carlisle,

00:24:25.440 all right.

00:24:25.840 Just keep in recht

00:24:26.020 looking for

00:24:26.560 the lock

00:24:27.260 and play around.

00:24:28.280 I hope for you

00:24:28.740 to go here.

00:24:28.980 Bye bye.

00:24:29.080 Just place right now.

00:24:30.820 I've got you

00:24:31.180 to go here.

00:24:31.700 I've got you

00:24:32.860 to go here.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - February 13, 2025

Conservatives up 19% over Liberals - Canadians not buying Trudeau Liberal rebrand

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