The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - April 11, 2025


CPC is winning Jagmeet's riding! Doing well in Liberal battleground ridings!


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Length

18 minutes

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181.37592

Word count

3,343

Sentence count

180

Harmful content

Misogyny

6

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Hate speech

1

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Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Wyatt Claypool breaks down the latest polling numbers from polling firm Cardinal Research in the riding of Burnaby Central in BC, and explains why the Tories are actually doing better than expected in some of the traditionally blue collar ridings.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.200 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. I have some great polling news to go over with you all today for the Conservative Party, but I don't want to bury the lead on the story today.
00:00:11.080 And that is, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh is slated to get absolutely stomped on in his home riding of Burnaby Central.
00:00:19.940 It turns out being subservient to the Liberals and constantly capitulating for nothing didn't do anything great for the NDP over the last six years.
00:00:28.640 Who could have seen that coming?
00:00:30.900 Anyways, I want to go over all the numbers that were released by Cardinal Research, including those Burnaby Central numbers, because it's actually quite good for the Conservatives.
00:00:40.760 There are commentators online saying, well, only one of the riding polls show the Conservatives leading.
00:00:46.920 But when you actually look deeper into the numbers, you'll see that the people who disproportionately answer the poll tend to be the most liberal-leaning demographics.
00:00:55.900 And if you correct for that, and just basically fit all this into a normal turnout model, the Conservatives are doing great in ridings that I didn't even think were going to be on the table in this federal election.
00:01:07.620 If you were following pollsters like Leger and ECOS, you would assume all these ridings would be won by the Liberals by Saddam Hussein numbers, and that is not happening.
00:01:18.600 Anyways, before I get into the numbers themselves, guys, just a reminder, if you like my polling analysis and my federal election coverage, make sure to like this video, subscribe to the channel if you are not yet a subscriber.
00:01:30.960 I'm trying to hit 100,000 subscribers by mid-December of this year, or I owe all of my friends dinner.
00:01:37.420 So protect me from having to spend $500 on dinner by subscribing to the channel, and also leave a comment.
00:01:44.000 It always helps us on the algorithm, and I usually try and scroll through the comments three or four times after I release a video to see what people are saying about the topic of the day.
00:01:53.600 Now, let's get into it.
00:01:55.240 So Cardinal Research is very interesting.
00:01:57.860 They're not doing big national polls where they poll 1,500 people candle-wide, and then they just assume what the different ridings are going to look like based on a regional number of only 300 people polled.
00:02:10.900 That's a perfectly legitimate way of doing polling, but you can't be that specific about where you think ridings are going to go when only 1,500 people were polled nationally.
00:02:20.880 It might give you a general national sense of how people are voting, but obviously things still come down to the riding level.
00:02:28.680 Are you going to win that one or not?
00:02:30.780 It doesn't matter if you win one riding by 85%.
00:02:33.840 If you end up dropping another one by 1% or 2%, you only get the one riding.
00:02:39.260 You don't get to splash over a bunch of your votes from Battle River Crowfoot into a riding where you want more votes to be able to get across the finish line.
00:02:46.640 So what they've done is they've done a phone poll as well as a door-to-door poll in local areas in Ontario as well as BC.
00:02:56.100 And again, although you are going to see the Liberals leading in pretty much all these polls, when we actually correct for what normal turnout is going to look like, the Conservatives are doing way better than you would think.
00:03:08.480 So let's start off with L. Eglinton Lawrence here.
00:03:12.240 Remember that this riding has not gone Conservative since 2011.
00:03:15.980 So we can pass over this one quite quickly.
00:03:18.620 The one thing I do want to say about this riding, and I will say the same thing about places like Mount Royal in Montreal as well as Toronto St. Paul,
00:03:27.320 is Eglinton Lawrence is a very heavily Jewish riding.
00:03:31.140 And what you are going to see over the next few days is that these ridings are going to heavily tighten up
00:03:36.620 after Mark Carney made those extremely stupid comments about supporting the ongoing arms embargo against Israel as well as basically saying that Israel is committing genocide against Palestinians because they're fighting terrorists in Gaza.
00:03:51.440 That is going to take off a lot of people in this traditionally liberal riding.
00:03:56.220 So I don't think on this decided side of the chart that it's going to stay at a margin of 32 to 64 for the Liberals.
00:04:04.780 Anyways, so let's go down.
00:04:06.620 We have Etobicoke Lakeshore here.
00:04:08.880 This is another riding I didn't think the Conservatives were going to get.
00:04:12.120 But early on here, you'll see what I mean when I say that the demographics are skewed a little bit towards the Liberals.
00:04:18.960 Now, I'm going to say this is not Cardinal Research trying to skew it.
00:04:22.080 They are just trying to pull several hundred people and then they just throw them into the results panel and you can take that for what it is.
00:04:29.380 Now, what we should be reminding ourselves here is that we're probably not in turnout going to have this many people being 55 and over in terms of age.
00:04:41.040 Right now, if we were to break down the general proportions of voters,
00:04:44.960 we are probably going to see about 42 percent, 40 to 45 percent of voters are going to be in the age group of 35 to 54.
00:04:54.560 And we're probably going to see only like 20 to 25 percent of people in that 18 to 34 demographic.
00:05:00.240 Naturally, younger people don't vote.
00:05:01.960 But many of these polls are overestimating the 55 plus vote.
00:05:06.400 Now, people over the age of 55, seniors in general, do vote way more than other demographics.
00:05:12.140 You have a lot of time on your hands.
00:05:13.540 You follow the issues.
00:05:15.080 The problem for the Conservatives is that a lot of people, because CPP becomes such a big issue in their lives,
00:05:20.500 they tend to vote for the party that is going to increase or maintain benefits.
00:05:25.260 And that tends to be the Liberals.
00:05:27.440 NDP are too radical and the Conservatives don't want to put as much money into like these social programs.
00:05:35.100 And so naturally, that demographic leans left.
00:05:37.860 And what you'll also see is in this poll, we had 334 men polled and 415 women.
00:05:45.920 Again, this is not cardinal research doing anything screwy.
00:05:48.980 They give you the numbers and you can take them for what they are.
00:05:52.520 But we're not going to have a turnout model where women are showing up at this massive rate. 1.00
00:05:57.620 I actually just want to quickly calculate this to see exactly how much this is over, assuming women are going to show up. 1.00
00:06:03.780 Yeah, so this is assuming that women are going to be 55% of the voting demographics in the election. 1.00
00:06:15.940 Women do vote more than men, but it's one of those things where women maybe vote, you know, 50 or like 51.5% of the electorate, 51%. 1.00
00:06:24.960 So it's more than men, but it's never a 55 to 45 kind of split.
00:06:30.220 Plus, I think this is an election where you're going to see a lot more men showing up than usual, especially younger men.
00:06:36.940 So now we go to Oakville East.
00:06:39.760 This is a riding that I don't think a lot of people assumed were going to be on the table for the Conservatives.
00:06:45.720 If the Conservatives won this one, it was going to be a very marginal victory.
00:06:49.900 And even here, Conservatives are at 43%, Liberals are at 54%.
00:06:54.960 Not too bad, considering it's still an over-poll of women, and it's a severe under-poll of 18 to 34.
00:07:00.780 That's pretty low.
00:07:02.160 And 35 to 54-year-olds who are going conservative in large margins are probably going to turn out more than what this poll is showing between 55-year-olds and 35 to 54 demographics.
00:07:15.640 So I'm going to say young, middle-aged, and older.
00:07:19.160 And so this is still an under-poll, I would say, for middle-aged and younger voters.
00:07:22.960 And it is already decently tight for a local riding where things can swing quite a bit harder on the local level than it can on the national level.
00:07:31.780 You have a great door-knocking blitz you do in an area, you end up pumping up your turnout numbers by four or five points, making it a very, very tight election.
00:07:41.580 Oakville West we can skip.
00:07:42.700 That's one where the Liberals were definitely going to hold on to it, more of an urban riding.
00:07:47.940 But let's go to Richmond Hill South.
00:07:50.460 This is one that the Conservatives are hoping to pick up.
00:07:53.580 And it's 44% on the decided and leaning voters to 52%.
00:07:58.780 Naturally, a lot of these ridings have heavy amounts of undecided voters in the younger demographics or with certain people like men or women.
00:08:07.180 Mostly younger voters in this riding that are undecided.
00:08:10.000 But there are still a lot of undecideds overall.
00:08:12.100 And if we just include people who are leaning towards a certain party already, it's that 44% for the Conservatives, 52% for the Liberals.
00:08:22.920 I honestly seriously doubt there's only going to be 3% of people voting NDP and 1% voting Green Party.
00:08:29.520 This is probably one of those things where NDP voters who are a little bit more depressed with how things are going just are not saying that they're turning out because they just don't care about this election that much.
00:08:40.300 They'll still probably vote, so 3% seems a bit low to me.
00:08:44.700 But even in this one, it's 229 men and 259 women.
00:08:50.180 And then we see 215 people in the 55-plus demographic and the older demographic were polled compared to 166 for middle-aged and 112 for younger.
00:09:00.380 So if there was already only an eight-point gap between the Conservatives and Liberals, but they are disproportionately assuming it's going to be a very old turnout in this riding, no, that's not going to happen.
00:09:13.200 If anything, this riding is probably at the very least tied to the moment, if not leaning towards the Conservatives.
00:09:18.500 Because right now, what we have been seeing is that the Liberals have been contracting as the tariff issue slowly recedes on Canadians' minds.
00:09:27.900 People are moving back towards domestic issues and away from Trump and the tariffs.
00:09:32.500 And now that the tariffs are mostly off the table, or it's basically kind of a guarantee that we're going to have no tariffs in a certain short period of time here,
00:09:42.620 I think what you're going to see is that these Liberal numbers are going to fall.
00:09:46.200 Because this was already kind of an overpull for the Liberals, because this poll was conducted right in the middle of the peak of trade tensions,
00:09:54.680 where the biggest rally around the current government effect was going on.
00:09:59.140 That happens all the time, you know, your country goes to war, for an example.
00:10:03.260 Suddenly, the president that nobody liked is very, very liked.
00:10:07.060 And suddenly, the party that was, you know, on the skids, everyone likes them because they're not the other guys.
00:10:13.440 This has happened to a lot of people.
00:10:15.000 As soon as a war starts, as soon as some crisis hits, the current guys in office, whether it's in the U.S. or Canada,
00:10:21.120 they always shoot up in popularity.
00:10:22.960 Now, let's move on to the, how do you say it, the pièce de résistance or whatever.
00:10:29.720 I don't know.
00:10:30.840 This very, very nice poll.
00:10:33.340 In Burnaby Central, with 1,000 people polled, and this is actually a very good balance, 510 women to 490 men.
00:10:40.360 That's probably about accurate for turnout.
00:10:43.800 The conservatives are absolutely stomping Jagmeet Singh.
00:10:46.860 Jagmeet Singh is in third, 21%.
00:10:50.120 The conservatives have 46%, and the liberals aren't even close.
00:10:54.980 And this is probably an overpull of younger people, to be fair.
00:10:58.460 I'd knock that down to maybe 290 or whatever.
00:11:02.260 But still, even if I did that, where are we, what's the difference really?
00:11:06.740 The conservatives would maybe be at 42% at that point.
00:11:09.880 Maybe the liberals would be at 36% or 37%.
00:11:12.120 It would still be a walkover election for the conservatives.
00:11:16.860 So, by the way, this is me showing a demarcation line.
00:11:20.200 I try and be very fair.
00:11:21.900 In polls where I'm saying the liberals are disproportionately favored by the demographics that were polled,
00:11:27.460 I will then come to this poll and say,
00:11:29.220 Yeah, I don't think that the young people are going to be the biggest turnout demographic in Burnaby Central.
00:11:35.520 Young people, again, just don't vote in the proportions that middle-aged and older voters do.
00:11:40.200 But even if we correct for that, the conservatives would still be ahead.
00:11:44.740 Let's go to Burnaby North Seymour.
00:11:46.760 This one isn't too bad.
00:11:47.980 39% conservative, 53% liberal.
00:11:50.640 But, again, what we are seeing is that there is an overpull of 55-plus voters, 380 compared to 320 middle-aged voters.
00:11:59.640 And, again, middle-aged voters in the actual turnout of this election are going to be the plurality.
00:12:07.060 If I was to ballpark it, it would be like 42% of voters are going to be middle-aged.
00:12:13.820 Probably 25% are going to be that 18 to 34 demographic.
00:12:18.240 And then 55-plus is probably going to be something like 33% turnout.
00:12:23.720 So when you're looking at this and you're seeing the conservatives trailing by even 10 points,
00:12:29.560 remember, we are looking at polls that are showing a turnout that is not going to be realistic.
00:12:34.960 But it's showing that the conservatives can still be close even with bad demographic numbers going against them.
00:12:41.540 Because, again, this is not going to be a low-turnout election like 2021,
00:12:45.040 where the electorate was disproportionately female and over the age of 55.
00:12:50.640 If we have higher turnout of 73% rather than 63% like last time,
00:12:56.040 which is very plausible with all the young men showing up to the OLLI of rallies,
00:13:00.720 we are going to see the numbers for the conservatives really ramp up in these demos that they are doing very well in.
00:13:07.720 And we might even be able to hammer down the Liberals' advantage with older voters going into the debates
00:13:13.960 when Mark Carney has to prove whether or not he's an actual strong hand on the Canadian economy
00:13:19.180 or he's just simply the guy replacing Justin Trudeau,
00:13:22.580 which I think is going to be the conclusion a lot of people are going to draw.
00:13:26.460 This is Cloverdale-Langley City.
00:13:29.840 Remember, the conservatives won this riding by a 50-point margin in the by-election,
00:13:34.900 which should tell you that by-elections are weird.
00:13:37.520 I don't think this riding was ever going to be an easy blowout for the conservatives
00:13:41.200 as things were tightening up, since by-elections tend to have super low turnout.
00:13:46.020 I think there was only a 10% turnout in this riding.
00:13:48.400 But even then, hopefully the conservatives win,
00:13:51.040 because I really like Tamara Jensen in this riding. 1.00
00:13:53.020 But right now, it is 44% for the conservatives to 46% for the liberals.
00:13:58.660 But again, you will notice that the demographics are probably a little bit off
00:14:03.220 compared to what the actual turnout models will be.
00:14:06.140 This is going to be a fight, but it is a fight that the conservatives can absolutely win.
00:14:12.140 Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam, we have 40% for the conservatives, 47% for the liberals.
00:14:18.240 But again, we have a disproportionate polling of 55 voters
00:14:21.980 and a disproportionate polling of women to what normal demographic turnout would be. 0.99
00:14:26.880 This, again, is a very winnable riding.
00:14:29.500 If you'll live there, make sure you do grab a lawn sign, put it up,
00:14:35.860 get your neighbors to show up, shame them, do whatever you have to do.
00:14:39.880 And by the way, most of these polls either have a 3% or 4% margin of error.
00:14:44.100 So much of what I'm pointing to when you actually correct for the demographics being disproportionately more liberal,
00:14:53.560 we're usually within the margin of error of these polls.
00:14:57.020 Another one here, this one is North Vancouver Capilano, 36% conservative, 54% liberal.
00:15:03.320 But you will notice 470 men and 530 women and 430 voters, 55 plus,
00:15:11.000 when again, it should be the middle-aged voters who are the bigger demographic here.
00:15:15.080 That is still winnable.
00:15:17.140 A lot of these other ridings, like obviously Vancouver-Granville is always going to be a tough fight.
00:15:21.420 That's an obvious one that the liberals are going to be holding on to.
00:15:25.280 Vancouver Quadra.
00:15:26.620 I'm not expecting the Vancouver area to be very friendly to the conservatives.
00:15:30.320 But you're getting my point here.
00:15:32.240 We are looking at many of these GTA ridings that I, when I was doing my analysis of the conservative path to victory,
00:15:39.780 I was saying, yeah, you're not going to win that one.
00:15:41.880 Let's not even assume that it's in the conservative category at all.
00:15:45.080 I am looking at conservative ridings right now, or ridings in general, that could go conservative.
00:15:51.280 Ridings I would not normally put on the table, like in Oakvale,
00:15:55.500 Port Coquitlam, or Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam.
00:15:58.720 I usually wouldn't be putting that one in the conservative category.
00:16:02.460 That's like a coin toss to me.
00:16:03.920 And now it looks actually very winnable, even with a poll that's generally over-polling liberal demographics.
00:16:11.620 This electorate, this election is going to be younger, is going to be more male than last time, 0.99
00:16:18.520 and it's going to be higher turnout of people who work in the trades.
00:16:22.020 And if that holds up, if that trend holds steady, and the conservatives are really able to push their people out,
00:16:27.600 because again, turnout matters.
00:16:29.660 You can be leading someone by six or seven points in a riding,
00:16:32.540 but if you only turn out 70% of your voters and they turn out 90% of theirs,
00:16:36.360 they're going to blow you out of the water.
00:16:38.640 So I would suggest to everyone, if you can vote early, vote early.
00:16:43.300 Make sure that your vote is already in the bag,
00:16:45.900 so then you can help make sure other people have also voted,
00:16:49.160 rather than you're too busy trying to make sure that you're submitting your vote
00:16:53.000 to help other people make sure that they go out and vote.
00:16:56.520 The strategy is usually bring a couple friends with you,
00:16:59.700 make sure that you turn your vote into three votes,
00:17:02.300 by making it so that two people who are unlikely to show up do actually show up.
00:17:07.280 So yeah, I think there are a lot of bright spots here,
00:17:10.100 especially Jagmeet Singh losing his own riding.
00:17:12.780 If this all is indicative of where the general nation is at,
00:17:17.980 think about all the other swing ridings that we weren't pulling here,
00:17:22.040 like Kitchener-Conestoga, like Kitchener-South Hesper,
00:17:25.860 like the Niagara region, like York Centre.
00:17:28.880 Those ridings, if these ones were as close as they are,
00:17:31.440 many of these were considered to be easy, default, safe, liberal seats.
00:17:35.120 If these ones are even realistic for the Conservatives to win if they push hard,
00:17:39.000 the other ones are going to be very much in the bag
00:17:41.600 if the Conservatives do what they need to do.
00:17:44.580 Anyway, so that should be it for this video, guys.
00:17:47.440 Hopefully you enjoy the analysis and you don't get too tired of me
00:17:50.240 just staring at graphics on screen.
00:17:52.240 Every once in a while, someone emails me and says,
00:17:53.980 I need to look more directly at the camera.
00:17:56.480 I'm sorry if I dart my eyes around.
00:17:58.420 It's usually when you're thinking and you're talking off the cuff,
00:18:00.620 you tend to look over there and over there
00:18:02.360 and your eyes kind of wander while you're kind of finding the word.
00:18:05.260 I am working on it.
00:18:06.180 I will try and glue my eyes to the screen
00:18:07.960 so it doesn't look like I'm some awkward weirdo
00:18:10.580 who doesn't want to look at you in the eyes.
00:18:12.620 So, again, that's it for me today, guys.
00:18:15.260 Make sure to like the video, subscribe to the channel,
00:18:17.080 leave a comment, do all that great stuff,
00:18:18.880 and I'll see you all next time.
00:18:20.320 So, again, I'll see you all next time.
00:18:22.060 So, again, I'll see you all next time.
00:18:23.880 So, again, I'll see you all next time.