The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - June 06, 2025


Danielle Smith's UCP leads NDP 25% ahead of by-elections! (Nenshi is awful)


Episode Stats


Length

24 minutes

Words per minute

182.06493

Word count

4,539

Sentence count

266

Harmful content

Misogyny

4

sentences flagged

Hate speech

3

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In this episode, I talk about the by-elections happening in June, and why I think the UCP is going to win the next election. I also talk about why the polls are not what they looked like a year ago.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here.
00:00:02.940 While there has been a lot of action in federal politics in Canada,
00:00:07.360 I want to shift focus to Alberta politics because there are three by-elections coming up in late June
00:00:13.940 that I think will give us a good idea of what position Danielle Smith is in for the 2027 provincial election.
00:00:21.080 Yes, it's 2025, we're still a long ways out,
00:00:24.160 but this is going to be a way of seeing how big the separatist movement is
00:00:28.240 and what kind of state the NDP is in right now.
00:00:31.680 Honestly, a really big shock to me in politics is how badly Nahid Nenshi is performing as the Alberta NDP leader.
00:00:41.440 I genuinely thought there was a chance he'd actually perform better than Rachel Notley as the NDP leader
00:00:47.280 because he was a three-term Calgary mayor and that seemed like the sort of energy the NDP would need to actually threaten the UCP.
00:00:54.840 Now, I'm a conservative, I support the UCP, but I do like to analyze politics from what parties should do if they want to win
00:01:03.360 because if you want to beat those parties, you should know what they may be like at their peak performance.
00:01:10.000 I assumed Nahid Nenshi would be peak performance for the NDP.
00:01:13.480 At the same time, during the leadership, I did think that Sarah Hoffman may be a more traditional NDP leader
00:01:19.720 that could lead the party more in line with the way Notley was doing it.
00:01:24.560 And right now, Nahid Nenshi seemed like the outside, or at the time, he seemed like the outside option
00:01:29.920 that would give them a lot more strength in Calgary because I assumed Edmonton would be a default.
00:01:35.420 Edmonton right now looks like in the two by-elections taking place in Edmonton,
00:01:39.880 there's one in Olds, Didsbury, Three Hills, and then there's two in Edmonton, Edmonton-Stratkona,
00:01:46.800 which is where Nahid Nenshi is running for his seat, and then you have Edmonton-Elsley.
00:01:51.760 Elsley looks like it actually may go towards the UCP based on how poor the current provincial polling is right now for the NDP.
00:02:00.280 So I'm about to get right into the stats, guys, but before I do that, just a reminder,
00:02:04.080 if you like my coverage, and especially if you live in Alberta, because I'm going to start covering more Alberta municipal politics
00:02:10.800 as we get closer to election time, I think, I believe in like October, make sure you follow the channel.
00:02:16.980 I'm going to be covering the Calgary mayor's race, Edmonton, stuff like that.
00:02:21.600 I'll be putting out endorsements and letting you know who I'd vote for.
00:02:24.980 Actually, you can sign up to my website's list if you also want that sent to you, wyattclaypool.com.
00:02:29.540 So like the video, subscribe, leave a comment, do all that great stuff.
00:02:32.960 Now, let's get into it.
00:02:35.180 So this is the recent Abacus Data poll for Alberta.
00:02:40.560 Abacus Data is, again, one of the pollsters I really like.
00:02:43.740 I think they do good work.
00:02:45.420 In the federal election, they were actually quite close to what the results really were.
00:02:49.620 I think they slightly underestimated the conservatives still, and they slightly overestimated the liberals,
00:02:55.120 but it's pretty tight compared to what other pollsters were like.
00:02:58.600 And right now, as you can see on screen, the UCP, led by Daniel Smith, is leading the NDP by 25 points.
00:03:07.980 Now, this is not what the polls looked like as of maybe a year ago.
00:03:12.800 Things a year ago were far shakier for Daniel Smith, and I could tell you exactly why.
00:03:18.980 The UCP wasn't getting stuff done.
00:03:21.120 There wasn't a tax cut.
00:03:22.180 They hadn't really been cracking down on regulatory bloat.
00:03:25.580 Even now, the UCP has some problems, definitely with some contracts that the government may be overspending on.
00:03:33.040 But overall, they have finally said that they're going to be cutting taxes.
00:03:36.000 Even if I wish they still balanced the budget, they are at least moving on the right priorities.
00:03:40.400 So the UCP's popularity has shot up, and the NDP under Nahid Nenshi has stalled out.
00:03:46.220 And it's almost hard to even explain why they've stalled out.
00:03:49.820 Have they made a big tactical error?
00:03:51.840 I would say no.
00:03:53.340 There's no vision issue, I would say.
00:03:55.200 They're pretty much doing the same things that the NDP always does and says.
00:03:59.460 The problem is with Nahid Nenshi, who I assumed, again, would be a more formidable opponent up against Daniel Smith.
00:04:07.980 I'm going to play a bunch of clips of him.
00:04:10.280 Here's one clip I'll play in a second where he's basically saying the UCP used to be good,
00:04:15.460 or Conservatives in Alberta used to be good when they were Ralph Klein and Peter Lougheed.
00:04:19.720 Now, Nahid Nenshi, if he was up against Ralph Klein and Peter Lougheed,
00:04:25.380 would be attacking them the exact same way he is attacking Daniel Smith.
00:04:29.220 I always like when people from opposite political parties say,
00:04:33.380 oh, I wish that that party was respectable and nice the way they used to be under, insert, previous leader here.
00:04:40.000 They don't actually care.
00:04:41.360 They're just pretending, I understand why people used to vote for the party, but now you can't.
00:04:46.220 Now, they're too extreme, whatever extreme means, even though arguably every party was more conservative.
00:04:53.080 Even the PCs under Lougheed, other than a few aspects of his oil and gas energy policy,
00:04:58.960 he was more socially conservative and fiscally conservative than the UCP is today.
00:05:03.560 That's not saying the UCP is bad today, but everyone tended to have smaller government kind of ideas back then.
00:05:10.220 The government did less stuff back then, so Nahid Nenshi pretending like, oh, I like those guys, but not these guys, is patently absurd.
00:05:18.780 So, just the smarmy way he kind of acts is the problem here, I'm going to say.
00:05:24.800 I'm trying to, like, diagnose the situation here.
00:05:27.800 And then, a little bit later, I want to get into the current polling in Edmonton-Elsley,
00:05:33.660 as well as talking about Olds, Didsbury, Three Hills, and where the Republican Party of Alberta could cause trouble for the UCP in the future,
00:05:41.700 if they place well enough.
00:05:43.140 But here is Nahid Nenshi on a radio show.
00:05:46.020 The Conservatives are extreme right now.
00:05:48.800 They are not the party of Peter Lougheed or the party of Ralph Klein.
00:05:52.400 They're just extreme right.
00:05:53.580 They're Trump.
00:05:54.160 And if you want a party that is better with money, but also believes in investing in education and health care and the dignity.
00:06:01.780 I'm sorry, when have the UCP lowered spending on those things?
00:06:05.520 If anything, this is a problem I have.
00:06:07.540 They actually probably should cut health care spending, education spending,
00:06:10.740 because it wouldn't actually affect the actual services at all.
00:06:14.700 The problem is we spend too much money on administration and management.
00:06:17.640 You could slash administration and AHS by around probably 30%, 40%, redistribute half of that towards frontline nursing and whatnot,
00:06:27.780 hire more nurses, pay the nurses better, and then you give the rest back to taxpayers.
00:06:32.020 It's never been a money issue.
00:06:33.660 Alberta pays the most money into health care per capita over any other province, and we have some of the longest wait times.
00:06:40.380 It has nothing to do with money.
00:06:42.120 It has to do with management.
00:06:43.700 And he's always pretending, like, see, we're the ones who will invest.
00:06:46.020 They won't.
00:06:47.060 Oh, my goodness.
00:06:47.820 Yes, they do.
00:06:48.920 What are you going to do?
00:06:49.960 Double the amount of increases?
00:06:51.840 Oh, then the health care system is going to sort of sell.
00:06:53.960 Oh, that's why it was so good under the NDP in 2015 to 2019.
00:06:59.260 It's never good.
00:07:00.500 ...unity of every human being.
00:07:02.300 The NDP is already in that space.
00:07:04.680 And I think people are starting to recognize that now.
00:07:07.320 And when you went to the back of the start of this, he's like, they're extreme right.
00:07:12.220 They're far right.
00:07:14.000 They're Trump.
00:07:14.740 He's just naming stuff.
00:07:16.220 He's, like, just trying to wish cast onto voters that they hopefully will believe this.
00:07:20.340 Conservatives are extreme right now.
00:07:22.100 They're extreme.
00:07:23.180 They are not the party of Peter Lougheed or the party of Ralph Klein.
00:07:26.800 Oh, they're not Lougheed and Klein.
00:07:28.340 Just extreme right.
00:07:29.380 Oh, extreme right.
00:07:30.420 They're Trump.
00:07:31.040 Oh, my goodness.
00:07:31.860 They're Trump.
00:07:32.400 We can't vote for them now.
00:07:33.640 This washed-up mayor has told us that they're Trump, and that means you can't vote for them because he, in this stupid game of slap, like, of slapdash, has said, oh, they're Trump.
00:07:46.120 Oh, my goodness.
00:07:47.000 Now we can't vote for them.
00:07:48.880 This isn't it.
00:07:49.600 I want to bring up other clips of Naheed Nenshi.
00:07:52.200 But everything about him just comes off like a fake downtown Edmonton progressive politician.
00:07:59.640 Or Calgary.
00:08:00.540 I don't think Calgary can escape blame on electing progressives like Nucky Nenshi and Jody Gonda.
00:08:05.780 But even just, again, I'm not trying to be rude here when I say look at that outfit.
00:08:10.920 I am not one who avoids wearing weird shirts.
00:08:14.840 I wear very eccentric shirts.
00:08:16.260 I have a lot of multicolored shirts out there.
00:08:18.880 What is he wearing, though?
00:08:20.140 It looks like a 90s, like, what is it, those, like, magic eye photos where you, like, stare at it and it becomes, like, a picture of Mickey Mouse or something like that.
00:08:31.640 And then he has this kind of, like, soft gray sweater on, and then he has a bunch of buttons attached to it.
00:08:36.940 This is what I assume, like, if he was younger, a college socialist club person would look like.
00:08:44.100 And now he's going to tell us about, like, I think it's, like, some Filipino holiday or recognition month or something.
00:08:49.420 Okay, what could be better than being at the beginning of Filipino Heritage Month? 0.97
00:08:55.660 Oh, yeah.
00:08:56.180 What could be better than the beginning of Filipino Heritage Month?
00:08:59.300 What could be better?
00:09:00.440 And I don't, I'm not, this isn't me being like, oh, who cares about Filipino culture? 0.97
00:09:05.080 It's probably interesting.
00:09:06.320 Why do we have months for stuff like this?
00:09:08.560 Have a day.
00:09:09.740 I don't, do you think, I think Filipino people probably wake up, like, a few days in and be like, yeah, I think we kind of run out of stuff to do.
00:09:15.760 Because at the end of the day, like, real life has to start back up.
00:09:19.080 Why does things have to be months or now seasons?
00:09:22.120 Just keep it to a day.
00:09:23.840 And even then, it probably shouldn't be a day.
00:09:25.620 Just have your own private little holidays.
00:09:28.420 And, you know, it's Filipino Independence Day, and they have a Filipino Independence Day celebration.
00:09:32.640 Do it then.
00:09:33.500 What's with these months?
00:09:34.660 And there's, like, seven, funny thing is every month is, like, the month of, like, 50 different things.
00:09:40.400 It's Pride Month.
00:09:41.400 It's Filipino History Month.
00:09:42.820 It's Men's Mental Health Month.
00:09:44.640 It's Veterans, like, Awareness Day or Veterans Mental Health Day.
00:09:48.580 I don't even know.
00:09:49.620 It's, like, 50 things.
00:09:50.780 It's probably talk for, like, a pirate month as well.
00:09:53.320 With an incredible Filipino choir and musical group who have won awards in the Philippines, playing four strong wins.
00:10:01.880 I'm feeling real Albertan and real Canadian right now.
00:10:06.660 But I'm thrilled.
00:10:07.620 It wasn't until there was a Filipino band playing four strong wins that he felt like a real Canadian.
00:10:14.260 To be here to recognize the launch of this beautiful cultural map of Filipino identity here in Edmonton.
00:10:22.660 We'll put a link below so you can take a look at it.
00:10:25.840 But also, as someone who largely grew up in my best friend's house, which is a Filipino home in Calgary, I'm feeling at home here.
00:10:33.780 What is this?
00:10:35.180 It's, like, three minutes or, like, a minute and a half of him, like, fluttering his eyelashes and saying, well, this is making me feel so Albertan because it's Filipino History Month.
00:10:47.380 And there's stuff going on.
00:10:48.820 And his head's rotating.
00:10:50.240 And he keeps closing his eyes for, like, three seconds at a time, looking like he's about to fall asleep.
00:10:54.840 I don't want to go out of this one for purely the aesthetics.
00:10:59.060 But the aesthetics of Naheed Nenshi come off as fussy, progressive, out of touch.
00:11:05.800 And what's going on with the NDP right now is they've lost working class voters in the exact same way that Jagmeet Singh lost them.
00:11:14.140 They have, he is just a fussy, downtown progressive.
00:11:18.200 And this is why he may lose Edmonton voters.
00:11:20.520 Edmonton voters tend to be very unionized, working class voters.
00:11:25.140 And those people are the people that pure poly and the conservatives just picked up in big swathes around the country in very Edmonton-like areas.
00:11:33.860 Windsor, Tecumseh Lakeshore, and these other, I think it was Windsor West, both ridings that conservatives hadn't either won between the 50s or the 30s.
00:11:42.520 And they just picked that up.
00:11:43.880 Do you think Edmonton-Elsley is out of play?
00:11:46.640 Conservatives used to win those ridings like 10 years ago.
00:11:50.120 I don't think that that's out of play right now.
00:11:51.900 And we're going to get to the stats on that riding in just a second.
00:11:54.340 Here's their Pride Month post.
00:11:56.400 Well, happy Pride.
00:11:57.420 We are kicking off Pride Month here with a number of my MLA colleagues at The Quilt Bag,
00:12:02.060 a wonderful store on White Avenue in Edmonton, Strathcowna.
00:12:05.480 Now, more than ever, it's time to celebrate.
00:12:09.100 Celebrate Pride, but also we have to reflect on the fact that Pride began as a protest.
00:12:15.080 Why is this anything that voters care about?
00:12:17.940 The average, let's just say, because I always say this is the average voter,
00:12:21.880 that if you're going to win an election, you need.
00:12:23.780 What woman who's 35 years old, has one or two kids, gets her coffee at Starbucks, 0.94
00:12:30.740 goes to Safeway to for groceries, you know, works a part-time job,
00:12:34.920 which, what woman in the middle of what at times right now are kind of like, 0.80
00:12:39.260 there's an economic struggle going on, is going to be like,
00:12:41.340 well, good thing Nenshi has this minute and a half video
00:12:44.500 where he and his most frivolous MLAs are talking about why Pride really matters,
00:12:50.460 especially this year.
00:12:51.780 A party that is currently attacking the UCP for banning what is actual, like,
00:12:56.960 18-plus content from libraries.
00:13:00.140 Just, like, disgusting images, not educational at all,
00:13:04.420 being put into libraries, and they were protesting this,
00:13:06.980 and then they post videos like this.
00:13:09.000 You're not winning who we'll call Stephanie. 0.98
00:13:11.680 Stephanie, that 35-year-old woman, is not showing up and voting for the NDP.
00:13:16.600 Do you think a guy who takes a hard hat off at the end of his shift
00:13:20.580 is voting for these guys?
00:13:22.260 They're on a path to blowing up their party
00:13:25.160 because they don't talk to any voters,
00:13:28.380 and they don't speak to any of them on, like, in their own needs.
00:13:32.020 By the way, what is Nenshi wearing here?
00:13:34.340 I'm just noticing this.
00:13:35.400 I know it was in the last video, too.
00:13:36.700 He's wearing, like, yellow sneakers.
00:13:38.980 I guess he filmed all these videos on the same day,
00:13:41.340 or this is his, like, go-to look now.
00:13:43.500 Yellow sneakers, pair of jeans, an untucked-in shirt
00:13:47.100 that's, like, multicolored, wearing this kind of, like,
00:13:50.420 halfway letterman's jacket, has a bunch of his pins on.
00:13:54.560 What is this?
00:13:55.540 And he's going to do a walk-and-talk video about nothing.
00:13:57.700 So I've had a great Edmonton weekend.
00:14:00.820 Yesterday, I spent time in the South at the JRJ Mosque's annual volunteer party.
00:14:06.700 This morning, I was at the World Partnership Walk
00:14:09.900 with thousands of Edmontonians fighting global poverty.
00:14:14.080 I spent some time kicking off Filipino Heritage Month
00:14:16.800 with a beautiful new project that examines the cultural landscape
00:14:21.240 and map form of Filipino Edmontonians on our community.
00:14:26.400 I door-knocked a lot, met lots of people.
00:14:28.580 What's this action shot of him, like, kind of, like,
00:14:32.360 very slowly, like, soft-shoeing around the streets
00:14:36.480 and, like, doing this turn?
00:14:38.080 I'm, like, distracted by the way he's moving in this video.
00:14:42.080 But, again, it's just all just...
00:14:43.680 I've been at events, guys.
00:14:44.800 I've been at events.
00:14:45.820 And I whined at the Conservatives for taking pornography out of schools.
00:14:49.360 And then I got mad at them because they overspent on something,
00:14:52.800 even though we were notorious for overspending when we were in government
00:14:55.560 and when I was mayor.
00:14:56.900 But ignore all that, guys, because I ate some food at a Filipino event.
00:15:01.820 Edmontonians, now it's late, and I'm hungry,
00:15:05.120 and I'm here on White Avenue.
00:15:06.460 I'm told there are some restaurants throughout here.
00:15:08.800 I might be able to get a bite to eat.
00:15:10.560 But come close.
00:15:11.440 I've got to tell you one other thing.
00:15:12.640 It's the Nathan Fillion Civilian Pavilion.
00:15:16.100 He was here this weekend.
00:15:19.380 Who cares?
00:15:20.280 Who is that?
00:15:21.100 My colleague Janice Irwin gave him a hug on stage.
00:15:25.000 Nobody told me.
00:15:27.860 We've got to do better, Edmonton.
00:15:34.240 What was that?
00:15:35.740 What the heck was that?
00:15:36.700 I don't even know what that was.
00:15:37.660 Yeah, who could guess why this party is not doing very well right now?
00:15:43.340 I want to show you Edmonton Elsley.
00:15:46.100 And by the way, when I showed that previous poll that had the UCP leading the NDP by 25 points,
00:15:51.420 and then previously I also showed a Janet Brown poll, who's a very accurate pollster.
00:15:54.860 I think she showed like a 14, 15-point lead for the Conservatives.
00:15:58.360 Remember, too.
00:15:59.660 I'll just quickly show this on screen.
00:16:01.000 In 2023, the UCP and Daniel Smith beat the NDP in the popular vote by 8%.
00:16:08.600 Now, that was not like that still isn't exactly like it was still a very close election when it came to seats because of Calgary.
00:16:17.180 But that should tell us that if now the UCP are 12 to 25 points ahead, the NDP might be in like even more trouble than we think in a lot of these seats.
00:16:30.960 Let's look at Edmonton Elsley, which, yes, has been voting NDP since 2015.
00:16:36.280 But this is not exactly a super reliable NDP riding.
00:16:41.660 So in 2015, the NDP first won this riding back, like the use of the, in 2012, the PC Party had won this with the Wild Rose Party being second place.
00:16:55.000 And third, we had the NDP only winning 16%.
00:16:58.280 Jump ahead to 2015, the NDP won it with 61% of the vote, which is a very commanding victory.
00:17:05.120 Although there was a lot of problems with the Progressive Conservatives changing out their candidate because the guy, Nourish Baradwaj, I'm so sorry for not being able to pronounce those names.
00:17:16.460 He was the MLA and then he had to drop out because of a fake scandal that was later proven untrue.
00:17:21.260 But then when they ended up having to throw another guy and then Jackie Lovely, who's currently on MLA for the UCP, ran as the Wild Rose, it split things up a lot.
00:17:29.600 And then the NDP ended up rocketing way ahead.
00:17:32.520 2019, though, it actually got pretty close, 50% to 37.91.
00:17:37.720 But that's still when the NDP's working class draw was quite strong.
00:17:43.540 Jump to 2023 and Rod LaHoya had held on to it with 61% compared to Ranjit Bath with 36.8.
00:17:52.060 And again, I'm not trying to come down on Ranjit Bath here, but I don't believe that that was really a riding that they were even attempting to win, not that even Ranjit probably was attempting to win it.
00:18:02.060 The UCP knew that there was no ridings they were going to win in Edmonton, so they threw a lot of people into ridings knowing that they're just there basically as a paper candidate to put in a good showing, and that's kind of it.
00:18:11.300 In 2025, though, Nourish Bardwaj is back running for the UCP against a new NDP candidate because all this was kicked off by Rod LaHoya resigning his seat to run for the Liberals,
00:18:25.340 who then kicked him out of the nomination they gave him, which meant that he now has no office.
00:18:30.260 And this riding, with the past incumbent back, does probably have quite a good chance of actually being able to win.
00:18:37.920 And by the way, this isn't even the fully updated list of candidates.
00:18:42.320 The Alberta Liberals are running candidates in both of the Edmonton by-elections.
00:18:47.740 And I shouldn't have to tell you, that's really going to hurt the NDP because a lot of Canadians, in Edmonton especially, just got through voting Liberal.
00:18:56.180 Now, the Liberals only won a couple of seats, I think they only, yeah, they only won a couple of seats in Edmonton, but then they, at the same time, even though they only won two seats, a lot of these seats overlap with some of these provincial ridings.
00:19:10.700 So you have a lot of people who are probably preparing to go to the voting station, they'll see Liberal on the ballot, and they'll be like, oh, I like the Liberals, and they'll like scratch in an X,
00:19:17.900 even though the Liberals don't even really exist as a party on a provincial level, and they didn't run candidates in the last provincial election.
00:19:24.460 So when you saw the NDP holding on to a lot of these Edmonton seats with high percentages of the vote, part of it was because there really wasn't many Alberta Party candidates,
00:19:34.480 and there wasn't any Liberal candidates, and now the Liberal Party, on the strength of Mark Carney's brand, is back.
00:19:42.060 So, yeah, this could get pretty hairy for the NDP. 0.93
00:19:45.920 I predict that Ellslie is either going to be close, or the UCP actually could win it.
00:19:51.500 So either the NDP is going to win it by just a few points, or the UCP could win it by a few points.
00:19:57.680 Now, let's talk about Olds, Didsbury, Three Hills.
00:20:02.960 I don't need to bring anything up on screen right now, but what we have going on here is a riding that the UCP is obviously going to win.
00:20:10.120 It's a rural riding, but if you were to pull ridings on where separatism was most popular, where independence was most popular,
00:20:18.580 Olds, Didsbury, Three Hills would be a prime riding to go around gathering support for that movement,
00:20:24.220 because it's probably well above 50% support for saying that Alberta would be better off as its own country.
00:20:30.240 I do want to bring up this poll on screen, which showed what the current ratings are in Alberta for if Canada or Alberta would leave Canada.
00:20:40.160 Right now, 66% of people in Alberta think that it's unlikely, 14% think it's likely, and 11% could happen.
00:20:48.380 Now, this is not a poll of people who actually want to leave.
00:20:52.280 Last time I saw that, it's around 35% to 65%.
00:20:56.240 Now, a lot of people don't think it could happen, at the same time, around the amount of people who think it could happen
00:21:03.060 is heavily concentrated in the one-third of Alberta that is rural, and Olds, Didsbury, Three Hills is easily above 50%.
00:21:13.100 Now, in that riding, as well as the two Edmonton ridings, the Republican Party of Alberta is running candidates.
00:21:20.480 In fact, the leader of the Alberta Republican Party, Cameron Davies, is running as the Olds, Didsbury, Three Hills candidate.
00:21:29.200 Now, I'm going to say, if the UCP wants to stave off an independent surge in the provincial polls,
00:21:37.060 it needs to keep Cam Davies in that riding below 13%.
00:21:41.800 If they can keep him in the low teens, then it's going to look like a flash in the pan, and it's not going to go anywhere.
00:21:49.240 A big problem for the UCP is it could even win Edmonton-Elsley, and what could then happen, though,
00:21:55.960 is if, let's say, the Republican Party can clock in at 20% in Olds, Didsbury, Three Hills,
00:22:02.780 then that's signaling, there is legs to this, because even on short notice, we were able to actually punch into the 20s.
00:22:08.960 That is going to shoot up the separatist polling, especially in rural areas across Alberta,
00:22:15.060 and it may even dig a few points into Edmonton ridings and Calgary ridings.
00:22:19.840 That's where, even if the NDP is very weak with NEMCHI, they could still win the next provincial election
00:22:25.360 if you experience a big independent versus federalist vote split.
00:22:30.280 So, that's a little warning going into that.
00:22:33.280 I don't want to do deep analysis on that, just more so.
00:22:36.420 That's what I'm looking forward to on June 23rd.
00:22:40.400 I want to see what happens, and depending on what happens,
00:22:43.060 I think it's going to really change how Alberta politics is going to shape up for the next election,
00:22:48.420 or it may just mean that the UCP is way ahead, nothing's changed,
00:22:52.340 and they're probably going to win re-election easily in 2027.
00:22:55.800 So, anyways, that should be it for me today, guys.
00:22:59.620 In this video, I've been sort of tripping over myself in the latter half of these videos.
00:23:03.540 Obviously, I film all these in one take, and I always have to be kind of like,
00:23:07.260 pace yourself out and have a good rhythm.
00:23:09.140 That's why I do the, hey, guys, Wyatt Claypool here at the start of the video,
00:23:13.280 because if I don't do that, kind of the rhythm can feel very like,
00:23:16.560 like, ka-chunk, ka-chunk, ka-chunk, and I'm not like, really like,
00:23:19.500 kind of like, going at like, like, like, bang, bang, bang.
00:23:22.920 It sort of starts to feel like I'm, like, tripping all over myself immediately.
00:23:26.700 But hopefully you don't mind this insider information I put in at the end of my videos.
00:23:31.080 One, the video's already long enough, so I do want to just mention random other stuff.
00:23:35.160 I will do, at some point, some sort of video or short over all of, like, the NES games
00:23:41.940 I put in the back of my videos.
00:23:44.480 I'm not kidding.
00:23:45.300 I have never repeated a game so far.
00:23:48.600 Can I even turn the camera?
00:23:50.160 I can turn the camera, I guess.
00:23:52.520 Over in the corner of this room, you can see a big bin there.
00:23:56.500 All those, pretty much the one on top, all those are NES games that I've purchased
00:24:01.540 for the purpose of putting in the background of videos.
00:24:05.700 There's a bag sitting on top that you may have seen.
00:24:07.940 That's new ones.
00:24:09.160 I am running out of new ones, so I have to go out and purchase more,
00:24:12.800 because I'm now on this journey or this quest to never repeat a single cartridge
00:24:17.760 until I've basically burned through all the non-hyper-rare NES games
00:24:22.280 that I can get my hands on.
00:24:23.540 Like, I'm not going to, you know, I'm not going to buy a copy of a game
00:24:26.260 that's, like, $1,200, but if I can keep finding things that are, like, $5
00:24:29.860 and, like, you know, $20 or whatever here and there,
00:24:32.800 I will keep attempting to make sure...
00:24:35.720 Oh, my goodness.
00:24:36.580 I will keep attempting to make sure that there's always a new game
00:24:39.560 in the background.
00:24:40.240 Today, it's 1942.
00:24:41.620 I'd already done 1943, but picked up this copy recently.
00:24:44.540 I'm rambling now, I know.
00:24:47.300 Anyways, so that's it for me today, guys.
00:24:49.300 Make sure to like the video, subscribe to the channel,
00:24:51.820 you know, leave a comment, do all that great stuff,
00:24:54.180 and I'll talk to you guys later.