The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - David Eby at risk of losing his seat in BC Election!

00:00:00.000 I think it would be a fair characterization to say that the British Columbia provincial election

00:00:04.980 was Premier David Eby and the BC NDPs to lose. And they have tried their darndest to lose it

00:00:11.760 as hard as possible. They were up in the polls 28% a year ago. That was assisted a bit by the

00:00:19.500 opposition to them being split up between the BC Conservatives and the BC United. But still,

00:00:25.000 David Eby hasn't moderated a bit since that time. If he did, this would actually probably be an easy

00:00:31.340 election for him. But he exposed himself as a complete radical, unwilling to back off of safe

00:00:36.640 supply, unwilling to budge on the carbon tax, belittling anybody who wasn't an environmental

00:00:42.080 alarmist, and pretending that that was going to be a winning election campaign in a province that

00:00:48.000 doesn't like how the NDP had performed on any of the major issues at all. It's gotten so bad for

00:00:54.200 Premier Eby. He could lose his own seat in Vancouver Point Grey. And this is not unprecedented.

00:00:59.360 Christy Clark lost this seat to David Eby in the past. It's a swing riding that can go either way.

00:01:05.080 And usually the leader adds a little bit of, you know, gravitas to the campaign in that riding.

00:01:10.980 The problem for Eby is he doesn't have gravitas at all and nobody trusts him. It's not a 10% chance

00:01:16.960 he could lose. It's a 34% chance he could lose. 66 to 34 in Vancouver Point Grey. It is only rated

00:01:23.220 as a toss-up right now, slightly leaning NDP. Because if the polls tighten up even 1% or 2% more

00:01:29.900 in Vancouver, Point Grey is probably 100% in play for the Conservatives. And it's probably

00:01:35.260 a literal 50-50 at that point. David Eby, if he just, again, I keep emphasizing it, just, you know,

00:01:43.880 lowered taxes a little bit, just said, no, we're going to scrap the safe supply program,

00:01:48.440 easily would cruise us to victory. He is so much of a protester, so much of an activist before a

00:01:54.140 responsible politician that he couldn't help himself and he could never admit to being wrong.

00:01:59.280 He has the same problems as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. I am a conservative. I'm obviously

00:02:04.420 a conservative. But if Trudeau ever admitted to making a mistake, it would actually help him

00:02:08.140 in the polls. David Eby and Justin Trudeau are pompous know-it-alls. At the same time,

00:02:13.420 everyone can see them doing everything wrong. On top of that, David Eby is just a weak personality.

00:02:18.760 His party has no momentum and he has no ability to generate momentum. Here's him talking about

00:02:23.040 healthcare in Canada and British Columbia. He doesn't give you the feeling that he is

00:02:27.460 fully in command. He always talks like he's asking permission for himself to do things. It's weird.

00:02:33.780 Healthcare is such an issue across Canada and in many different jurisdictions around the world

00:02:39.520 that are seeing similar trends. The difference is here in BC, we are doing things differently

00:02:46.280 and we're taking this issue head on to make sure we're able to provide the support that people need.

00:02:52.960 I'm not going to make you suffer through the rest of this, but this was an actual campaign video

00:02:57.920 the BCNDP uploaded that this was going to be something that's going to make you like David Eby.

00:03:03.260 Think he's competent. He sounds weak. Also, he's just lying. He tries to go in there and say that

00:03:08.280 we're hiring nurses and doctors faster than anyone else's in Canada. They're not. They're not. Plus

00:03:13.260 all the nurses and doctors that they fired and pretended to let come back to work, they're not 0.87

00:03:17.560 coming back. Why would they trust them anymore? The BC government is duplicitous under the NDP.

00:03:23.420 And we've had two more polls come out recently and I want to go over some of those with you today

00:03:27.780 as well as the Main Street Research Model, which I think is very interesting. I want to show you

00:03:32.560 some of their stats. They actually show the race in Vancouver Point Grey within, I believe,

00:03:38.720 1.5% between the Conservatives and the BCNDP. If you are in Vancouver, please go and volunteer for

00:03:46.760 Paul Ranchford's campaign in that riding. If you don't want to drive all the way there,

00:03:51.460 at least join another BC Conservative campaign. Doorknock once in this campaign. At least

00:03:56.980 donate $100 to the BC Conservatives. I have a link below to donate to the Abbotsford South riding

00:04:02.940 or taking in as much money as possible and distributing it out to the winnable ridings.

00:04:07.040 If you donate $100, you get 75% of your money back. Obviously, this is only applying to people

00:04:12.360 who live in BC. But before I get to those polls, one, again, reminder, like, share and subscribe,

00:04:16.860 all that good stuff. This is a podcast that had all three of the major leaders on to talk about

00:04:22.740 their issues. You know, Sonia Firstano, John Rustad, and David Eby. I think it's really telling

00:04:28.680 that John Rustad is not a massive personality. I really like John Rustad. Very straightforward,

00:04:33.660 very blunt on the issues. He very much is goals-oriented. And that sounds a bit vague,

00:04:38.600 but I mean, in the sense that he's somebody who's saying, taxes are too high, let's lower taxes.

00:04:42.660 He's not going to be the type of guy, if he's premier, to say, oh, well, I want to balance the

00:04:46.560 budget first. And in two years, we'll see if it's safe. He'll just do it. Very much,

00:04:51.220 Ralph Klein, Blaine Higgs kind of energy, which I like. And that doesn't mean big personality.

00:04:56.320 That means focus. And in this podcast interviews, Sonia Firstano, I give it to her. It was only

00:05:04.120 nine hours ago when I took the screenshot, although most of your views should be coming

00:05:07.420 in the first five hours. Sonia Firstano, her interview has 213 views. John Rustad, 22,000.

00:05:14.240 And David Eby, who has had longer with this interview sitting out there for the world to watch

00:05:18.940 two weeks ago, has 3,700 views. Nobody cares what David Eby wants to say. You actually look at David

00:05:28.160 Eby and you know what his position is. It is the position of a weak socialist college student who

00:05:33.360 thinks that late-stage capitalism is the reason why their Uber Eats driver hasn't gotten to their

00:05:37.900 house yet. This is the type of person that David Eby is. He represents college town progressives,

00:05:44.160 and that's not a winning coalition for a provincial election. Right now, there are demographic groups

00:05:50.460 who don't vote conservative. Federally, provincially, they never vote conservative.

00:05:54.280 They're voting conservative this election. South Asians are mostly going to be voting conservative

00:05:58.680 based on the Main Street research numbers I have here. I'll just pull up the Main Street research

00:06:03.860 numbers. I think they're pretty interesting. It'll be a little bit hard for me to organize it here

00:06:08.860 just simply because it's small text, but I'll try and zoom in a lot. But let's go through education

00:06:15.040 right now. David Eby and the BC Conservatives, there's a lot of, sorry, David Eby, BC NDP,

00:06:22.100 John Arresta, and the BC Conservatives. Then you have First No and the Greens. And this poll does have

00:06:26.100 a lot of undecided. Undecided, having this many undecided voters, 17.7%, that's death for David Eby.

00:06:33.680 You do not want a significant portion of people being undecided if you're the incumbent. The

00:06:39.200 incumbent's advantage is that people just default to voting for you. They've done a fine job. Vote

00:06:44.060 for them again. If 17% of people are undecided basically a month before the election, dude,

00:06:50.660 you're screwed. You're so screwed. People haven't decided if they like you or not yet. I know a lot 1.00

00:06:55.940 of people don't know who David Eby is, but they know who the BC NDP are. And some people probably

00:07:00.400 still think John Horgan's the premier, but nobody likes them. Everyone knows what the BC NDP stand

00:07:05.320 for. The people who are undecided want to check out what the BC Conservatives are about, or maybe

00:07:09.900 they're just affected NDPers who are going to go look at what the Greens have to offer. But overall,

00:07:15.100 undecideds are going to be splitting for the Conservatives. This is just how undecideds work

00:07:19.460 in an election like this that I would say is more of a referendum. Do you like the government? This is

00:07:24.320 why I tell people all the times when I'm door knocking. Do you like the current government and David

00:07:28.240 Eby or do not? Because if you don't, you can't then be scared into saying, well, the Conservatives

00:07:32.660 could be radically different. Yes, we need radically different. We need somebody to say

00:07:37.080 that taxes need to go down, regulations need to go down, stop indoctrinating kids in school,

00:07:41.380 all this kind of stuff, get rid of safe supply. So let's get into this high school and high school

00:07:47.180 education. Sorry, trying to get to the right page here. Right now, they are winning these basically

00:07:53.300 at the same rates. 22% of high school or less are the undecideds. That's bad because usually high

00:07:59.180 school is going to be splitting conservative. A lot of people who work in trades who probably earn

00:08:04.380 far more than people who've gone to university, but they work more like, you know, on farms. They

00:08:09.200 work in the lumber industry. They work, you know, as other types of professions that didn't require

00:08:14.140 school. Those people are more predisposed. Blue collar people are going to be going to the

00:08:18.400 Conservatives. So I guarantee we're going to see the Conservatives start to edge past probably even

00:08:23.180 45, 46% with the high school or less crowd. College, 45% Conservative. Now, that's the reason

00:08:30.940 why they're winning college students by so much is that college, you have a lot of technical

00:08:35.460 universities, a lot of technical schools teaching like plumbing and electric and, you know, teaching

00:08:40.160 electricians. That's where the Conservatives are getting their vote from. This is a demographic.

00:08:45.240 I guarantee you back in 2020, John Horgan was winning them because John Horgan came off

00:08:50.920 like to put it very simply, bluntly, a man's man. David Eby does not come off like a man's

00:08:56.220 man. He doesn't seem like somebody you want to get a beer with or anything. He seems like

00:09:00.640 somebody who complains at you for having a picnic in the park because there's like some

00:09:04.900 city ordinance nobody's ever heard of before. Now we get to university and this is where

00:09:09.740 one is proving university is a little bit of a scam. There's a lot of people with arts degrees

00:09:13.980 who are going to be voting for the NDP. I don't think I'm alienating them by saying that they're

00:09:18.260 not watching the show people with sociology degrees. 42% NDP, 35% Conservative, but they're

00:09:24.380 also the least undecided, which means that all of the support that David Eby is currently

00:09:30.640 getting, there's not really more of this group for him left to win. And if they even split

00:09:35.320 50-50 Conservative and NDP, the Conservatives are doing well. Again, $50,000 or less, those are

00:09:41.880 very undecided naturally because they're not doing so hot in this economy. The only

00:09:45.900 people who are more decided are the people in the $100,000 plus demographic. And make

00:09:52.140 no mistake, a lot of them are voting NDP still more than the $75,000 crowd because you get

00:09:57.460 to have some luxury beliefs there, but also they are still actually leading towards the

00:10:01.120 Conservatives. The only people currently being won by the NDP are lower income, but they're

00:10:06.640 also heavily undecided. And I guarantee those undecided people are not going towards the NDP or

00:10:11.640 they would have already done it. These are more so probably NDP stalwarts, a lot of teachers,

00:10:16.820 a lot of people in unionized labor. Now I want to quickly pull out of this a bit, and I want

00:10:22.320 to go back to the data on ethnicity because this one is interesting, especially among, let's

00:10:30.240 look at the regionals quickly. I'll just list off the numbers here. I think they're pretty

00:10:35.960 good to see. EB is currently doing well, as you would expect on Vancouver Island, but

00:10:41.820 Rested still winning 33% of Vancouver Island. A lot of other polls were only showing the

00:10:46.340 Conservatives at 28, 30. If they can get this number from 33.6 to a 38, I think they're doing

00:10:52.360 very well, 12% undecided. Rested BC is 22 and a half. This is more reflective of the fact

00:10:58.680 that nobody likes the NDP and maybe they're not yet fully aware that the Conservatives, they're

00:11:02.900 the only party they can vote for. But Vancouver is tight. Vancouver is very tight. It is not

00:11:09.440 acting like the default orange city that you would normally expect because the NDP have

00:11:15.480 frankly ticked off a lot of demographic groups. So let's just quickly look at this. Some of

00:11:19.700 the demographic groups are way too small to pull here. And it is just true, even though 1.00

00:11:25.000 BC is actually a very, very diverse ethnically province. And except you'll notice that

00:11:32.260 like Middle Eastern voters, that South Asian voters, a lot of these demographics, even if

00:11:37.760 they're like 20%, 15% of certain cities, they're like a tiny minority of poll of people who answered

00:11:44.440 a poll because that's just not the culture to pick up the poll and sit with someone on the phone for 10

00:11:48.440 minutes. Certain demographic groups are just more difficult to reach. And even though it's not a

00:11:53.780 massive sample, I do want to talk about East Asians, East Asians, Chinese, like Chinese voters,

00:11:59.640 Koreans, Japanese, Canadians, they usually split towards the left, that they tend to be voting

00:12:06.980 federal liberal, federal NDP. This election, 44.9% going towards the conservatives. South Asians,

00:12:14.920 usually a little bit more towards the NDP and the liberals, 32.8% going towards conservatives. Even

00:12:20.900 that's a little bit too small sample for that community in my mind. And from just looking at

00:12:26.080 what's happening on the ground, the conservatives are doing very well in the, are doing very, very

00:12:31.740 well in Surrey. I have no, I have no doubt that we're going to pick up the majority of Surrey right

00:12:36.780 now from sheer momentum alone. I see some of these guys campaigning out there, like Han Bear and Zeeshan,

00:12:42.460 and they're walking around with like Roman legions of like 20 volunteers going down one street.

00:12:47.540 That's just what Surrey politics is somewhat like, but you don't see something like that from the losing

00:12:51.840 campaign. Maybe we're not going to pull up victories there. I kind of doubt it. White voters, 0.99

00:12:57.420 this is where a lot of the battle is going to tend to be just because frankly, you get a lot of default

00:13:03.360 white union voters from 30 years ago who have voted NDP for most of their life, and they might not

00:13:11.580 change. I think a lot of them are saying NDP because they always say NDP on the phone. Once they

00:13:15.840 enter the polling booth, I think you're going to have a lot more people going conservative, still 17%

00:13:21.120 undecided. You do get more undecideds in other communities, although most of these are

00:13:25.100 statistically insignificant, depending on how few they actually pulled. But now I just want to bring

00:13:31.640 up the British Columbia chart, the British Columbia map that Main Street Research has put out.

00:13:38.640 This is where the riding that David Eby is in is extremely close. I'm going to try and zoom in a

00:13:46.080 little bit more for you guys here. This is Vancouver Point Grey. They're predicting this

00:13:50.880 race as 44.3% David Eby for the NDP, 43.7% for Paul Ranchford. That is less than 1% between the two

00:14:01.760 of them. This is how tight the race is, and I guarantee if David Eby feels threatened this riding,

00:14:07.860 he is going to try and pull in as many resources, as many volunteers into his jurisdiction,

00:14:12.580 and away from other NDP candidates. He has a massive ego. He will try and do something like

00:14:18.100 that. Same thing with Jagmeet Singh, who's now flip-flopping all over the place on whether or not

00:14:22.360 he will actually vote for a non-confidence vote, because obviously him ripping up the supply and

00:14:26.740 confidence agreement was just a show. It didn't mean anything, really. And so the thing that we have

00:14:32.660 going on right now is that this is a referendum. This, in my mind, is going to be, it's a strange

00:14:40.700 analogy, like the New Jersey off-year election for, like, governor and state house and whatnot. In New

00:14:48.880 Jersey, there were candidates who only spent $200 U.S. for the Republicans, and they beat the Democrat

00:14:56.340 House Speaker, like statewide office, not like the federal. They beat the Senate Speaker for the

00:15:05.220 State Senate, and he only spent $250. I think his opponent spent like a million or like $300,000.

00:15:12.460 And it's because people, when they're sick of the current government, they'll just vote for whatever

00:15:15.420 is the opposite. So right now, I think we're actually seeing polls understating how well the

00:15:20.580 conservatives are doing. And this happens all the time. And not to bore you guys to death, but I want to

00:15:25.960 quickly show you what ended up happening in the Alberta provincial election with the pollsters.

00:15:32.320 I like Main Street. I think they probably do the best job out of all the pollsters currently doing

00:15:37.840 British Columbia. Many of these pollsters, like, let's talk about the most clownish pollster, council,

00:15:43.820 like, council strategies or whatever it is, council public affairs, I think it is. They put out a poll like

00:15:49.200 three weeks ago that said that the BCNDP are up eight points. I don't believe that for a second.

00:15:55.960 And do you know why I don't believe that? Let's go over to when the Alberta election happened.

00:16:04.420 Council public affairs down there showing just four days before the election, 5% Alberta NDP.

00:16:13.040 It's an online poll. Online polls also tend to skew more left-wing than right-wing because a lot of

00:16:18.960 people who work as plumbers and farmers are not going to take an online poll in the middle of the day.

00:16:23.500 Main Street is more accessible for people. It's an IVR poll. You pick up the phone, they say,

00:16:27.820 who are you going to vote for? This person, that person, or whatever. And you just hit the buttons

00:16:31.420 on your phone. It takes like two minutes to do their poll. Online polls can be far more tedious.

00:16:36.680 So you get more people sitting around offices who are on lunch break, who are willing to fill in

00:16:40.700 like polls all day long because they get like gift cards for Starbucks if they do enough of them.

00:16:45.420 Council public affairs missed this election by 13.6%. The UCP in Alberta won by 8.6% over the

00:16:56.120 Alberta NDP. And council public affairs thought the Alberta NDP were going to win by five in terms of

00:17:01.960 the popular vote. It was tight on seats in Calgary. But in terms of popular vote, this is what people

00:17:06.600 are falling for. Even abacus data, which usually shows the NDP are ahead by one or two percent in

00:17:12.940 British Columbia, they thought the UCP was only up one point a day before, a day or two before the

00:17:18.160 election. That's a 7.6% miss. A lot of these pollsters, even Main Street, technically missed.

00:17:25.280 I think they got like a plus two for the UCP a couple days before. Other pollsters, Research Co.

00:17:30.840 was a plus four. It was the closest, but their previous poll was like eight points off. A lot of

00:17:36.660 these pollsters, I think, are missing the hidden conservative voter. They're not very loud about it.

00:17:41.360 They know that certain parts of this province can be kind of left-wing, very progressive. And so

00:17:46.980 they're not going to tell you right away what they believe on the issues, but they're going to vote

00:17:50.740 conservative. And that's the biggest threat for David Eby. There's a hidden, silent majority

00:17:56.100 voter out there who is going to show up to just get David Eby out of office, and they trust John

00:18:01.020 Rustad. And David Eby is going to have a big problem trying to regain momentum when all he's signaling

00:18:07.140 is flip-flopping and weakness. He is a radical progressive on the issues. Everybody knows that.

00:18:13.060 And as he pretends not to be, he's only ticking off his own base and looking like he can't even

00:18:17.620 stand by the things that he said five minutes ago. He was in favor of the carbon tax five minutes ago.

00:18:21.920 He mocked Polya for not being against it. Now he's going to strongly consider getting rid of the 0.99

00:18:26.960 provincial carbon tax. And he's not even going to do it. He's just going to shift the consumer carbon

00:18:31.440 tax even more on to producers and large businesses, which means everyone's still paying

00:18:36.620 the carbon tax anyways. It's utter buffoonery. He's not actually going to pursue involuntary

00:18:42.880 treatment for addicts. He's just saying it because the conservatives said it. And he's in big trouble

00:18:47.660 right now. There is a reason why I made that graphic. I don't think I have it on me right now

00:18:52.120 of David Eby wearing a BC conservative hat. It's going to happen soon. He's going to have to stick on

00:18:56.740 BC conservative hat because that's the only brand that's currently popular in British Columbia right

00:19:02.240 now is the conservative reform brand. Anyways, that should be it for me today, guys. If you live

00:19:08.020 in British Columbia, please go and request a lawn sign on the BC conservative website. I'm going to

00:19:13.160 link that in the description below. Donate at least a hundred dollars to the BC conservatives. They're at

00:19:17.940 a massive money disadvantage because the BC NDP have given themselves eight million dollars of

00:19:23.160 taxpayer money through these dumb election financing rules where they get most of their money back from

00:19:28.560 the last election and they get like two dollars per vote they got in 2020 every single year. It's

00:19:34.240 ridiculous. Conservatives get two hundred thousand. They get eight million. That's fair. And you can't 0.88

00:19:39.200 even barely donate that much in BC, only up to fourteen hundred dollars, which is peanuts when you

00:19:43.380 actually think of a provincial wide election. You'd need like a thousand people to give you that much

00:19:48.500 money to even be in the conversation of being able to win the provincial election. But anyway, so

00:19:54.120 donate a hundred dollars, get a lawn sign, volunteer for a campaign, and this is very winnable for all

00:19:58.940 of us. See you guys later.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - September 19, 2024

David Eby at risk of losing his seat in BC Election!

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