David Eby at risk of losing his seat in BC Election!
Episode Stats
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Summary
In this episode of the BC Conservative campaign podcast, I talk about how bad things are for the BC NDP in the polls, and why they are going to lose the election. I also talk about why the BC Tories are the only party with a chance to win in BC.
Transcript
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I think it would be a fair characterization to say that the British Columbia provincial election
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was Premier David Eby and the BC NDPs to lose. And they have tried their darndest to lose it
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as hard as possible. They were up in the polls 28% a year ago. That was assisted a bit by the
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opposition to them being split up between the BC Conservatives and the BC United. But still,
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David Eby hasn't moderated a bit since that time. If he did, this would actually probably be an easy
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election for him. But he exposed himself as a complete radical, unwilling to back off of safe
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supply, unwilling to budge on the carbon tax, belittling anybody who wasn't an environmental
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alarmist, and pretending that that was going to be a winning election campaign in a province that
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doesn't like how the NDP had performed on any of the major issues at all. It's gotten so bad for
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Premier Eby. He could lose his own seat in Vancouver Point Grey. And this is not unprecedented.
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Christy Clark lost this seat to David Eby in the past. It's a swing riding that can go either way.
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And usually the leader adds a little bit of, you know, gravitas to the campaign in that riding.
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The problem for Eby is he doesn't have gravitas at all and nobody trusts him. It's not a 10% chance
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he could lose. It's a 34% chance he could lose. 66 to 34 in Vancouver Point Grey. It is only rated
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as a toss-up right now, slightly leaning NDP. Because if the polls tighten up even 1% or 2% more
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in Vancouver, Point Grey is probably 100% in play for the Conservatives. And it's probably
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a literal 50-50 at that point. David Eby, if he just, again, I keep emphasizing it, just, you know,
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lowered taxes a little bit, just said, no, we're going to scrap the safe supply program,
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easily would cruise us to victory. He is so much of a protester, so much of an activist before a
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responsible politician that he couldn't help himself and he could never admit to being wrong.
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He has the same problems as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. I am a conservative. I'm obviously
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a conservative. But if Trudeau ever admitted to making a mistake, it would actually help him
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in the polls. David Eby and Justin Trudeau are pompous know-it-alls. At the same time,
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everyone can see them doing everything wrong. On top of that, David Eby is just a weak personality.
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His party has no momentum and he has no ability to generate momentum. Here's him talking about
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healthcare in Canada and British Columbia. He doesn't give you the feeling that he is
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fully in command. He always talks like he's asking permission for himself to do things. It's weird.
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Healthcare is such an issue across Canada and in many different jurisdictions around the world
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that are seeing similar trends. The difference is here in BC, we are doing things differently
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and we're taking this issue head on to make sure we're able to provide the support that people need.
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I'm not going to make you suffer through the rest of this, but this was an actual campaign video
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the BCNDP uploaded that this was going to be something that's going to make you like David Eby.
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Think he's competent. He sounds weak. Also, he's just lying. He tries to go in there and say that
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we're hiring nurses and doctors faster than anyone else's in Canada. They're not. They're not. Plus
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all the nurses and doctors that they fired and pretended to let come back to work, they're not
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coming back. Why would they trust them anymore? The BC government is duplicitous under the NDP.
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And we've had two more polls come out recently and I want to go over some of those with you today
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as well as the Main Street Research Model, which I think is very interesting. I want to show you
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some of their stats. They actually show the race in Vancouver Point Grey within, I believe,
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1.5% between the Conservatives and the BCNDP. If you are in Vancouver, please go and volunteer for
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Paul Ranchford's campaign in that riding. If you don't want to drive all the way there,
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at least join another BC Conservative campaign. Doorknock once in this campaign. At least
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donate $100 to the BC Conservatives. I have a link below to donate to the Abbotsford South riding
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or taking in as much money as possible and distributing it out to the winnable ridings.
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If you donate $100, you get 75% of your money back. Obviously, this is only applying to people
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who live in BC. But before I get to those polls, one, again, reminder, like, share and subscribe,
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all that good stuff. This is a podcast that had all three of the major leaders on to talk about
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their issues. You know, Sonia Firstano, John Rustad, and David Eby. I think it's really telling
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that John Rustad is not a massive personality. I really like John Rustad. Very straightforward,
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very blunt on the issues. He very much is goals-oriented. And that sounds a bit vague,
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but I mean, in the sense that he's somebody who's saying, taxes are too high, let's lower taxes.
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He's not going to be the type of guy, if he's premier, to say, oh, well, I want to balance the
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budget first. And in two years, we'll see if it's safe. He'll just do it. Very much,
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Ralph Klein, Blaine Higgs kind of energy, which I like. And that doesn't mean big personality.
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That means focus. And in this podcast interviews, Sonia Firstano, I give it to her. It was only
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nine hours ago when I took the screenshot, although most of your views should be coming
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in the first five hours. Sonia Firstano, her interview has 213 views. John Rustad, 22,000.
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And David Eby, who has had longer with this interview sitting out there for the world to watch
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two weeks ago, has 3,700 views. Nobody cares what David Eby wants to say. You actually look at David
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Eby and you know what his position is. It is the position of a weak socialist college student who
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thinks that late-stage capitalism is the reason why their Uber Eats driver hasn't gotten to their
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house yet. This is the type of person that David Eby is. He represents college town progressives,
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and that's not a winning coalition for a provincial election. Right now, there are demographic groups
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who don't vote conservative. Federally, provincially, they never vote conservative.
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They're voting conservative this election. South Asians are mostly going to be voting conservative
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based on the Main Street research numbers I have here. I'll just pull up the Main Street research
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numbers. I think they're pretty interesting. It'll be a little bit hard for me to organize it here
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just simply because it's small text, but I'll try and zoom in a lot. But let's go through education
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right now. David Eby and the BC Conservatives, there's a lot of, sorry, David Eby, BC NDP,
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John Arresta, and the BC Conservatives. Then you have First No and the Greens. And this poll does have
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a lot of undecided. Undecided, having this many undecided voters, 17.7%, that's death for David Eby.
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You do not want a significant portion of people being undecided if you're the incumbent. The
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incumbent's advantage is that people just default to voting for you. They've done a fine job. Vote
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for them again. If 17% of people are undecided basically a month before the election, dude,
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you're screwed. You're so screwed. People haven't decided if they like you or not yet. I know a lot
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of people don't know who David Eby is, but they know who the BC NDP are. And some people probably
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still think John Horgan's the premier, but nobody likes them. Everyone knows what the BC NDP stand
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for. The people who are undecided want to check out what the BC Conservatives are about, or maybe
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they're just affected NDPers who are going to go look at what the Greens have to offer. But overall,
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undecideds are going to be splitting for the Conservatives. This is just how undecideds work
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in an election like this that I would say is more of a referendum. Do you like the government? This is
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why I tell people all the times when I'm door knocking. Do you like the current government and David
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Eby or do not? Because if you don't, you can't then be scared into saying, well, the Conservatives
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could be radically different. Yes, we need radically different. We need somebody to say
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that taxes need to go down, regulations need to go down, stop indoctrinating kids in school,
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all this kind of stuff, get rid of safe supply. So let's get into this high school and high school
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education. Sorry, trying to get to the right page here. Right now, they are winning these basically
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at the same rates. 22% of high school or less are the undecideds. That's bad because usually high
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school is going to be splitting conservative. A lot of people who work in trades who probably earn
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far more than people who've gone to university, but they work more like, you know, on farms. They
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work in the lumber industry. They work, you know, as other types of professions that didn't require
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school. Those people are more predisposed. Blue collar people are going to be going to the
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Conservatives. So I guarantee we're going to see the Conservatives start to edge past probably even
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45, 46% with the high school or less crowd. College, 45% Conservative. Now, that's the reason
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why they're winning college students by so much is that college, you have a lot of technical
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universities, a lot of technical schools teaching like plumbing and electric and, you know, teaching
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electricians. That's where the Conservatives are getting their vote from. This is a demographic.
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I guarantee you back in 2020, John Horgan was winning them because John Horgan came off
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like to put it very simply, bluntly, a man's man. David Eby does not come off like a man's
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man. He doesn't seem like somebody you want to get a beer with or anything. He seems like
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somebody who complains at you for having a picnic in the park because there's like some
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city ordinance nobody's ever heard of before. Now we get to university and this is where
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one is proving university is a little bit of a scam. There's a lot of people with arts degrees
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who are going to be voting for the NDP. I don't think I'm alienating them by saying that they're
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not watching the show people with sociology degrees. 42% NDP, 35% Conservative, but they're
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also the least undecided, which means that all of the support that David Eby is currently
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getting, there's not really more of this group for him left to win. And if they even split
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50-50 Conservative and NDP, the Conservatives are doing well. Again, $50,000 or less, those are
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very undecided naturally because they're not doing so hot in this economy. The only
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people who are more decided are the people in the $100,000 plus demographic. And make
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no mistake, a lot of them are voting NDP still more than the $75,000 crowd because you get
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to have some luxury beliefs there, but also they are still actually leading towards the
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Conservatives. The only people currently being won by the NDP are lower income, but they're
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also heavily undecided. And I guarantee those undecided people are not going towards the NDP or
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they would have already done it. These are more so probably NDP stalwarts, a lot of teachers,
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a lot of people in unionized labor. Now I want to quickly pull out of this a bit, and I want
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to go back to the data on ethnicity because this one is interesting, especially among, let's
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look at the regionals quickly. I'll just list off the numbers here. I think they're pretty
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good to see. EB is currently doing well, as you would expect on Vancouver Island, but
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Rested still winning 33% of Vancouver Island. A lot of other polls were only showing the
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Conservatives at 28, 30. If they can get this number from 33.6 to a 38, I think they're doing
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very well, 12% undecided. Rested BC is 22 and a half. This is more reflective of the fact
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that nobody likes the NDP and maybe they're not yet fully aware that the Conservatives, they're
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the only party they can vote for. But Vancouver is tight. Vancouver is very tight. It is not
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acting like the default orange city that you would normally expect because the NDP have
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frankly ticked off a lot of demographic groups. So let's just quickly look at this. Some of
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the demographic groups are way too small to pull here. And it is just true, even though
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BC is actually a very, very diverse ethnically province. And except you'll notice that
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like Middle Eastern voters, that South Asian voters, a lot of these demographics, even if
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they're like 20%, 15% of certain cities, they're like a tiny minority of poll of people who answered
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a poll because that's just not the culture to pick up the poll and sit with someone on the phone for 10
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minutes. Certain demographic groups are just more difficult to reach. And even though it's not a
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massive sample, I do want to talk about East Asians, East Asians, Chinese, like Chinese voters,
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Koreans, Japanese, Canadians, they usually split towards the left, that they tend to be voting
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federal liberal, federal NDP. This election, 44.9% going towards the conservatives. South Asians,
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usually a little bit more towards the NDP and the liberals, 32.8% going towards conservatives. Even
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that's a little bit too small sample for that community in my mind. And from just looking at
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what's happening on the ground, the conservatives are doing very well in the, are doing very, very
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well in Surrey. I have no, I have no doubt that we're going to pick up the majority of Surrey right
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now from sheer momentum alone. I see some of these guys campaigning out there, like Han Bear and Zeeshan,
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and they're walking around with like Roman legions of like 20 volunteers going down one street.
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That's just what Surrey politics is somewhat like, but you don't see something like that from the losing
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campaign. Maybe we're not going to pull up victories there. I kind of doubt it. White voters,
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this is where a lot of the battle is going to tend to be just because frankly, you get a lot of default
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white union voters from 30 years ago who have voted NDP for most of their life, and they might not
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change. I think a lot of them are saying NDP because they always say NDP on the phone. Once they
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enter the polling booth, I think you're going to have a lot more people going conservative, still 17%
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undecided. You do get more undecideds in other communities, although most of these are
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statistically insignificant, depending on how few they actually pulled. But now I just want to bring
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up the British Columbia chart, the British Columbia map that Main Street Research has put out.
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This is where the riding that David Eby is in is extremely close. I'm going to try and zoom in a
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little bit more for you guys here. This is Vancouver Point Grey. They're predicting this
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race as 44.3% David Eby for the NDP, 43.7% for Paul Ranchford. That is less than 1% between the two
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of them. This is how tight the race is, and I guarantee if David Eby feels threatened this riding,
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he is going to try and pull in as many resources, as many volunteers into his jurisdiction,
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and away from other NDP candidates. He has a massive ego. He will try and do something like
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that. Same thing with Jagmeet Singh, who's now flip-flopping all over the place on whether or not
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he will actually vote for a non-confidence vote, because obviously him ripping up the supply and
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confidence agreement was just a show. It didn't mean anything, really. And so the thing that we have
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going on right now is that this is a referendum. This, in my mind, is going to be, it's a strange
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analogy, like the New Jersey off-year election for, like, governor and state house and whatnot. In New
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Jersey, there were candidates who only spent $200 U.S. for the Republicans, and they beat the Democrat
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House Speaker, like statewide office, not like the federal. They beat the Senate Speaker for the
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State Senate, and he only spent $250. I think his opponent spent like a million or like $300,000.
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And it's because people, when they're sick of the current government, they'll just vote for whatever
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is the opposite. So right now, I think we're actually seeing polls understating how well the
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conservatives are doing. And this happens all the time. And not to bore you guys to death, but I want to
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quickly show you what ended up happening in the Alberta provincial election with the pollsters.
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I like Main Street. I think they probably do the best job out of all the pollsters currently doing
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British Columbia. Many of these pollsters, like, let's talk about the most clownish pollster, council,
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like, council strategies or whatever it is, council public affairs, I think it is. They put out a poll like
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three weeks ago that said that the BCNDP are up eight points. I don't believe that for a second.
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And do you know why I don't believe that? Let's go over to when the Alberta election happened.
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Council public affairs down there showing just four days before the election, 5% Alberta NDP.
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It's an online poll. Online polls also tend to skew more left-wing than right-wing because a lot of
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people who work as plumbers and farmers are not going to take an online poll in the middle of the day.
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Main Street is more accessible for people. It's an IVR poll. You pick up the phone, they say,
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who are you going to vote for? This person, that person, or whatever. And you just hit the buttons
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on your phone. It takes like two minutes to do their poll. Online polls can be far more tedious.
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So you get more people sitting around offices who are on lunch break, who are willing to fill in
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like polls all day long because they get like gift cards for Starbucks if they do enough of them.
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Council public affairs missed this election by 13.6%. The UCP in Alberta won by 8.6% over the
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Alberta NDP. And council public affairs thought the Alberta NDP were going to win by five in terms of
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the popular vote. It was tight on seats in Calgary. But in terms of popular vote, this is what people
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are falling for. Even abacus data, which usually shows the NDP are ahead by one or two percent in
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British Columbia, they thought the UCP was only up one point a day before, a day or two before the
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election. That's a 7.6% miss. A lot of these pollsters, even Main Street, technically missed.
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I think they got like a plus two for the UCP a couple days before. Other pollsters, Research Co.
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was a plus four. It was the closest, but their previous poll was like eight points off. A lot of
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these pollsters, I think, are missing the hidden conservative voter. They're not very loud about it.
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They know that certain parts of this province can be kind of left-wing, very progressive. And so
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they're not going to tell you right away what they believe on the issues, but they're going to vote
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conservative. And that's the biggest threat for David Eby. There's a hidden, silent majority
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voter out there who is going to show up to just get David Eby out of office, and they trust John
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Rustad. And David Eby is going to have a big problem trying to regain momentum when all he's signaling
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is flip-flopping and weakness. He is a radical progressive on the issues. Everybody knows that.
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And as he pretends not to be, he's only ticking off his own base and looking like he can't even
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stand by the things that he said five minutes ago. He was in favor of the carbon tax five minutes ago.
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He mocked Polya for not being against it. Now he's going to strongly consider getting rid of the
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provincial carbon tax. And he's not even going to do it. He's just going to shift the consumer carbon
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tax even more on to producers and large businesses, which means everyone's still paying
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the carbon tax anyways. It's utter buffoonery. He's not actually going to pursue involuntary
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treatment for addicts. He's just saying it because the conservatives said it. And he's in big trouble
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right now. There is a reason why I made that graphic. I don't think I have it on me right now
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of David Eby wearing a BC conservative hat. It's going to happen soon. He's going to have to stick on
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BC conservative hat because that's the only brand that's currently popular in British Columbia right
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now is the conservative reform brand. Anyways, that should be it for me today, guys. If you live
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in British Columbia, please go and request a lawn sign on the BC conservative website. I'm going to
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link that in the description below. Donate at least a hundred dollars to the BC conservatives. They're at
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a massive money disadvantage because the BC NDP have given themselves eight million dollars of
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taxpayer money through these dumb election financing rules where they get most of their money back from
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the last election and they get like two dollars per vote they got in 2020 every single year. It's
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ridiculous. Conservatives get two hundred thousand. They get eight million. That's fair. And you can't
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even barely donate that much in BC, only up to fourteen hundred dollars, which is peanuts when you
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actually think of a provincial wide election. You'd need like a thousand people to give you that much
00:19:48.500
money to even be in the conversation of being able to win the provincial election. But anyway, so
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donate a hundred dollars, get a lawn sign, volunteer for a campaign, and this is very winnable for all