David Eby is trying to get BC Green voters to switch to the BC NDP and block the BC Tories in the upcoming election. Is this strategy going to work? Or will it backfire on the Green voters? And why is David Eby so desperate to get them to vote for him?
00:00:00.000The British Columbia provincial election is just five days away, taking place on October 19th, and in a show that Premier David Eby and the BC NDP might not be too confident that they have an ability to win this election, Eby is now coming out and begging BC Green voters to come in and save the NDP by voting NDP to block the BC Conservatives.
00:00:24.980Has this ever worked in an election? I don't think so. An unpopular incumbent government just asks another party to switch who they're voting for to save them from the more popular opposition.
00:00:37.060I know in theory, Green voters are less conservative than NDP voters are conservative, but at the same time, they're voting Green for a reason.
00:00:47.940They're voting Green probably because they think you guys suck, not because they were just waiting in the wings, waiting for David Eby to ask them to come in and just hand them their votes so that he gets another four years to screw things up more.
00:01:01.420But this is something that he actually posted to his own X account.
00:01:09.360This election is unlike any we've seen before. For Green voters, John Russ said it's a risk that we can't afford.
00:01:15.680He supports conspiracy theories and hateful candidates. He wants to cut healthcare, climate action, and housing.
00:01:21.600Your vote has never mattered more. Let's stick together.
00:01:24.660Before I play the video, this is just fundamentally misreading Green voters in general, both provincial Green voters as well as federal Green voters.
00:01:34.920There's actually a reason so many people who used to vote federal Green actually vote federal PPC now.
00:01:42.160It's because a lot of Green voters just tend to be deeply anti-establishment.
00:01:46.220They hate establishment parties, and so they vote Green because they don't want to have anything to do with parties like the BC Liberals or the BC NDP.
00:01:56.220In fact, in theory, let's just say the BC NDP disappear tomorrow, and everybody who is going to vote Green now has to pick between the NDP and the Conservatives, and they're not allowed to stay home.
00:02:06.540I guarantee you more of them vote BC Conservative than BC NDP.
00:02:10.820I've been going through the polls over the last few days with you guys, and whenever I look at 2020 Green voters, I'm going to pull it up right now just to prove my point here.
00:02:20.760Whenever I've seen BC Green voters from 2020 saying who they're going to be voting for this election, obviously a lot of them are still voting Green,
00:02:28.560but there's way more of them planning on voting BC Conservative than they're going to be voting BC NDP if they've decided to switch at all.
00:02:38.500Yeah, okay, this one actually shows the NDP are grabbing up a little bit more of the Green vote, but I've seen a lot of these Main Street polls day-to-day where the Conservatives are grabbing 22% of the Greens,
00:02:52.080and the NDP are grabbing 15%, and this one shows the NDP grabbing 22%, and the Conservatives grabbing 19%.
00:02:58.500But it's not just an even split between, oh, the Greens are more left, so if they choose to vote for another party, they're going to vote NDP.
00:03:07.360It's not how it works, and especially if you ask them to switch how they're going to vote, it's definitely not going to work out that way because it's pathetic.
00:03:14.900As a leader, also capitalize the name of the voters that you want, maybe.
00:03:20.260It's a little sign of respect that you can add into a post like this.
00:03:23.780But oftentimes when you ask for something, when you vocalize what you want, it just guarantees it's not going to happen.
00:03:30.320Not in like a mystical sense like, oh, your dream can never come true now.
00:03:33.940I mean just in the sense that by very in the sweaty and desperate way saying, I need you guys, can you show up for me?
00:04:02.120I want you to just take a moment and think about how it would feel if on Sunday morning, the morning after the election, you wake up and the Premier of British Columbia is John Rustad.
00:04:40.500This is what you would call a left wing establishment conspiracy theory that they frequently push in Canadian politics.
00:04:47.320Federal liberals are doing it to the federal conservatives right now.
00:04:49.820And David Eby's NDP are doing it to the provincial conservatives.
00:04:54.320When has any conservative government in the past 30 years just come in and just slashed health care, just slashed education, just come in and start not just the cutting infrastructure spending, just breaking down the roads, putting extra potholes in it all.
00:05:26.900And that was because we were facing a debt crisis where you had to do it because people in previous governments, governments that looked a lot like David Eby's NDP government, just kept ramping up the spending, running massive deficits, piling up the debt.
00:05:41.060To the point that the government was going to be insolvent if you didn't slash stuff when at the time before the debt crisis hit, we could have just done some efficiency measures, you know, maybe not even cutting the budget, but making sure that we reduce and cut wasteful spending on, you know, for example, DEI garbage, HR, all these bureaucratic positions that really make you think of that office space line.
00:06:07.980Whenever I come to a job in government and I can't figure out what you do or why it's useful, then we probably should be cutting it and redistributing that money either to more deserving departments or we should be putting it to a fund that we can build that allows us to then figure out if we were able to cut taxes or not.
00:06:42.860By the way, to defend Chip Wilson for a second here, Chip Wilson's paid probably more taxes than three, four, five square miles of other people because that's just how it kind of works.
00:06:53.920He pays a lot of taxes out of a ratio of his income.
00:06:59.080He makes a lot of money, so he ends up paying a lot of taxes, especially in a pretty aggressively tiered system like we have in British Columbia and Canada.
00:07:08.280He pays more than half of his income in taxes probably.
00:07:12.100And then he has to pay property tax on top of that.
00:07:14.680And the NDP pretending that they can just eke out a little bit more from people like Chip Wilson and then they can pay for their program is ridiculous.
00:07:22.560I get driven up a wall whenever a government comes out and they release their budget or their platform and they say, see, our platform, we're going to have the deficit go down over time.
00:07:32.600And it's this stupid little trick that they do where they propose all this new spending.
00:07:36.560And in theory, if they add not a cent of new spending or barely just increase it a little bit per year for inflation, yes, technically the deficit per capita will be going down or eventually we will outgrow it.
00:07:48.940But when have these people ever been able to demonstrate the fiscal discipline to spend that money and then not spend anything else?
00:07:57.500OK, we have the programs we want to maintain.
00:07:59.680We have a small emergency fund for other stuff.
00:08:17.580There obviously is going to cost less than you guys.
00:08:19.980You guys acting like because you had some random like dorm room joker punch out some stuff on a calculator and technically show that there was a grand total at the end that was heavily undershooting how much that budget was actually going to cost.
00:08:32.700Makes your platform budget any better than the conservatives that's, you know, in the name, like to their namesake is far more conservative is silly.
00:08:43.260Anyways, but maybe to move on to some polling.
00:08:46.100We are now in, I believe, the fifth day of the conservatives leading the NDP by five or six points.
00:08:52.960It's been going back and forth since the debate.
00:08:55.540First, after the debate, after a full day had taken place where people were answering the polls based on the knowledge of having watched the debate, the conservatives went from literally just one point behind the NDP to three points above.
00:09:46.380And now, to forgive me for being a little bit disorganized, but I want to check in on the exact amount of votes that the B.C. NDP had in 2020.
00:09:56.380So the B.C. NDP ended up winning the last election with 47.69 percent of the popular vote.
00:10:06.040And in fact, that was actually a closer election than you would probably imagine, because the B.C. liberals had such a vote concentration out in the rural area.
00:10:15.020So their 33 percent still clinched them 28 seats and the NDP got 57.
00:10:20.060But right now, I don't see a path to victory where the NDP drop.
00:10:29.960And they somehow, with the B.C. conservatives getting 42, 43 percent, I guarantee they actually probably could pull off a 46 or 47 on election night just based on higher turnouts of B.C. conservative voters, that they're going to swamp the NDP.
00:10:44.320I know the NDP has a bit of a black backstop and a firewall around downtown Victoria and really deep downtown Vancouver.
00:11:25.400I'm comparing it to like a U.S. presidential election.
00:11:27.600There's no foreign policy category in B.C. politics.
00:11:31.440But right now, we have the conservatives.
00:11:35.220And in this B.C. model that Main Street's put out, I'm not going to I guess I can show it on screen here.
00:11:41.920In the model that's come out from Main Street Research, right now they're projecting the conservatives winning 49 seats and the NDP only winning 42 seats.
00:11:57.480So it's still pretty close because you need 47 seats for the majority.
00:12:01.020So just be two more seats or the NDP or the B.C. conservatives would have three seat majority with this.
00:12:06.580I still think that there's way more seats on this map that Main Street has that the B.C. conservatives can win that are currently showing leaning B.C. NDP.
00:12:18.540And I'm not just saying I have a gut feeling because I don't know.
00:12:21.920I like the guy running there for the conservatives.
00:12:24.200But genuinely, I've driven around Coquitlam, Burke Mountain.
00:12:28.540Very conservative space when you actually walk around.
00:12:30.680I've talked to people there at the door who said that they were three, three time NDP voters provincially and they're voting conservative now.
00:12:39.220Tons of people like that all over the place.
00:12:41.260You want you drive through and all of the signs are pretty much conservative.
00:12:45.020Obviously, there are liberal NDP signs, but it's like, you know, a ratio of two to one, three to one in many of these high turnout neighborhoods.
00:12:53.160So when the white right now, the NDP to win, they have to they have a bunch of safe seats.
00:13:00.420Yes, that probably their safe seats probably get them to about 35 seats.
00:13:04.980And then the rest of them are either leaning or toss ups.
00:13:08.000The problem for the NDP is that they have a few more seats that are leaning that they can likely win.
00:13:13.980And then the rest of them are like coin tosses if they can win them.
00:13:17.620And so for the B.C. NDP to win, they need to win like eight coin toss seats, like 12 coin toss seats to be able to cross that majority threshold or even get into a minority government situation with the B.C. Greens.
00:13:31.060For the conservatives to win, they don't need to do that at all.
00:13:34.320What the conservatives need to do is that their safe seats actually get them pretty close.
00:13:38.300Their safe seats, I would say, probably get them within 40 and then or like 42.
00:13:43.100And then they just need about five more seats for the majority and then just seeing how big the majority is.
00:13:48.540And I think that past the safe seats, the conservatives probably have three or four seats heavily leaning towards them.
00:13:54.400And then they have an op. Then they have a pool of like 12 toss ups they can win.
00:13:58.740There's 12 options for them to get to that majority where the B.C. NDP, even if I take the Main Street map for like at face value,
00:14:06.540even though I've driven through these areas and I know the mood of these areas,
00:14:09.340I've talked to people in tons of these ridings and you can just feel after a while from speaking to people,
00:14:14.600somebody who comes across like a default federal liberal voter and a default B.C. NDP or like a very left B.C. liberal voter.
00:14:22.100Like I have to vote B.C. conservative. I didn't know I was going to do this, but I'm doing it.
00:14:26.340That when stuff like that's happening, you know, Vancouver Little Mountain is not as in play for the B.C. NDP as you think.
00:14:32.540I guarantee you, David E.B. only has a 50-50 shot of holding on to his riding.
00:14:37.700Burke Mountain, probably going conservative. I think Fort Moody Burquitlam is a coin toss riding.
00:14:42.620Tons of these ridings are coin toss ridings. Even this one had Maple Ridge, Langley, Walnut Grove as a toss up or leaning NDP.
00:14:50.840I think that's leaning conservative. There's just way too many rural suburban areas who just can't stand how high handed and just anti-business NDP are.
00:15:00.700Tons of farmers are not showing up. I guarantee the South Asian community is not going to show up to vote for the NDP.
00:15:06.540SOGI is too big of an issue for them. Tons of them are business owners and farmers.
00:15:10.280And are they really going to get kicked in the teeth to vote NDP again just because they technically voted NDP in the last races?
00:15:16.100It's going to be hard to see where the South Asians are going to come down in this election just because it's just a cultural group who doesn't take polling phone calls.
00:15:25.280Probably smarter than all of us white people who get on the phone and just start telling people everything we think.
00:15:29.900And I don't think that those more socially conservative voters can vote hyper-progressive NDP.
00:15:36.660So this is where I'm very confident. There's a big gambit.
00:15:41.600Or like for the EB to run, he has to run a very tight gambit.
00:15:45.080Russ had tons of options. Tons and tons of options.
00:15:48.540And I think the turnout is actually going to turn a lot of these toss ups into solid conservative ridings on the day of the vote.
00:15:55.740We already have record-breaking turnout.
00:15:58.320And I know that sometimes early voting numbers don't really mean anything because it could just be a party pushing out their supporters to get into line and vote early to make sure that day of voting lines are shorter.
00:16:10.120But the BC Conservatives only had $200,000 of taxpayer money to run this campaign, plus all their donors.
00:16:15.560Which isn't a lot because it's very hard to nickel and dime your way to a good war chest in BC politics right now.
00:16:54.320And we're not in that type of an election cycle right now.
00:16:58.000Anyways, that should be it for me today, guys.
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