The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - October 14, 2024


David Eby begs Green voters to save the BC NDP (CPBC lead 5-6%)


Episode Stats


Length

18 minutes

Words per minute

189.29015

Word count

3,463

Sentence count

235

Harmful content

Misogyny

2

sentences flagged

Hate speech

2

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

David Eby is trying to get BC Green voters to switch to the BC NDP and block the BC Tories in the upcoming election. Is this strategy going to work? Or will it backfire on the Green voters? And why is David Eby so desperate to get them to vote for him?

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 The British Columbia provincial election is just five days away, taking place on October 19th, and in a show that Premier David Eby and the BC NDP might not be too confident that they have an ability to win this election, Eby is now coming out and begging BC Green voters to come in and save the NDP by voting NDP to block the BC Conservatives.
00:00:24.980 Has this ever worked in an election? I don't think so. An unpopular incumbent government just asks another party to switch who they're voting for to save them from the more popular opposition.
00:00:37.060 I know in theory, Green voters are less conservative than NDP voters are conservative, but at the same time, they're voting Green for a reason.
00:00:47.940 They're voting Green probably because they think you guys suck, not because they were just waiting in the wings, waiting for David Eby to ask them to come in and just hand them their votes so that he gets another four years to screw things up more.
00:01:01.420 But this is something that he actually posted to his own X account.
00:01:07.160 The header of this post reads,
00:01:09.360 This election is unlike any we've seen before. For Green voters, John Russ said it's a risk that we can't afford.
00:01:15.680 He supports conspiracy theories and hateful candidates. He wants to cut healthcare, climate action, and housing.
00:01:21.600 Your vote has never mattered more. Let's stick together.
00:01:24.660 Before I play the video, this is just fundamentally misreading Green voters in general, both provincial Green voters as well as federal Green voters.
00:01:34.920 There's actually a reason so many people who used to vote federal Green actually vote federal PPC now.
00:01:42.160 It's because a lot of Green voters just tend to be deeply anti-establishment.
00:01:46.220 They hate establishment parties, and so they vote Green because they don't want to have anything to do with parties like the BC Liberals or the BC NDP.
00:01:56.220 In fact, in theory, let's just say the BC NDP disappear tomorrow, and everybody who is going to vote Green now has to pick between the NDP and the Conservatives, and they're not allowed to stay home.
00:02:06.540 I guarantee you more of them vote BC Conservative than BC NDP.
00:02:10.820 I've been going through the polls over the last few days with you guys, and whenever I look at 2020 Green voters, I'm going to pull it up right now just to prove my point here.
00:02:20.760 Whenever I've seen BC Green voters from 2020 saying who they're going to be voting for this election, obviously a lot of them are still voting Green,
00:02:28.560 but there's way more of them planning on voting BC Conservative than they're going to be voting BC NDP if they've decided to switch at all.
00:02:37.240 I'll look down here.
00:02:38.500 Yeah, okay, this one actually shows the NDP are grabbing up a little bit more of the Green vote, but I've seen a lot of these Main Street polls day-to-day where the Conservatives are grabbing 22% of the Greens,
00:02:52.080 and the NDP are grabbing 15%, and this one shows the NDP grabbing 22%, and the Conservatives grabbing 19%.
00:02:58.500 But it's not just an even split between, oh, the Greens are more left, so if they choose to vote for another party, they're going to vote NDP.
00:03:07.360 It's not how it works, and especially if you ask them to switch how they're going to vote, it's definitely not going to work out that way because it's pathetic.
00:03:14.900 As a leader, also capitalize the name of the voters that you want, maybe.
00:03:20.260 It's a little sign of respect that you can add into a post like this.
00:03:23.780 But oftentimes when you ask for something, when you vocalize what you want, it just guarantees it's not going to happen.
00:03:30.320 Not in like a mystical sense like, oh, your dream can never come true now.
00:03:33.940 I mean just in the sense that by very in the sweaty and desperate way saying, I need you guys, can you show up for me?
00:03:41.200 They're like, no. Like, obviously no.
00:03:44.640 And the fact that he is now only courting them at this point of the election proves why they don't like him.
00:03:50.720 He only does stuff when it seeks to benefit him.
00:03:54.360 He only cares to talk to Green voters now that he actually is very likely to lose the election to John Rust and the Conservatives.
00:04:01.360 But here's the video.
00:04:02.120 I want you to just take a moment and think about how it would feel if on Sunday morning, the morning after the election, you wake up and the Premier of British Columbia is John Rustad.
00:04:17.540 Pretty good.
00:04:19.060 And he begins his work to cut the services we all depend on.
00:04:24.240 Everything from public health care to child care to essential infrastructure to dismantle climate action in this province.
00:04:32.120 To clear cut old growth, to abandon protection of wild spaces for the next generation.
00:04:38.860 It's conspiracy theories.
00:04:40.500 This is what you would call a left wing establishment conspiracy theory that they frequently push in Canadian politics.
00:04:47.320 Federal liberals are doing it to the federal conservatives right now.
00:04:49.820 And David Eby's NDP are doing it to the provincial conservatives.
00:04:54.320 When has any conservative government in the past 30 years just come in and just slashed health care, just slashed education, just come in and start not just the cutting infrastructure spending, just breaking down the roads, putting extra potholes in it all.
00:05:09.060 It's conspiratorial garbage.
00:05:10.880 Oh, if the conservatives get into power, they're going to push your grandmother down the stairs. 1.00
00:05:16.140 No party has ever run on cutting stuff like this.
00:05:19.880 It hasn't been since like Gordon Campbell and the Chrétien and Ralph Klein days that massive cuts were done in government.
00:05:26.900 And that was because we were facing a debt crisis where you had to do it because people in previous governments, governments that looked a lot like David Eby's NDP government, just kept ramping up the spending, running massive deficits, piling up the debt.
00:05:41.060 To the point that the government was going to be insolvent if you didn't slash stuff when at the time before the debt crisis hit, we could have just done some efficiency measures, you know, maybe not even cutting the budget, but making sure that we reduce and cut wasteful spending on, you know, for example, DEI garbage, HR, all these bureaucratic positions that really make you think of that office space line.
00:06:05.600 What is it that you actually do here?
00:06:07.980 Whenever I come to a job in government and I can't figure out what you do or why it's useful, then we probably should be cutting it and redistributing that money either to more deserving departments or we should be putting it to a fund that we can build that allows us to then figure out if we were able to cut taxes or not.
00:06:27.400 That's what we need to do.
00:06:28.540 In BC, the tax burden is higher than any other province.
00:06:33.320 And what's sickening is when you then listen to NDP politicians say, well, it's just that the rich have to pay a little bit more.
00:06:41.100 They're paying all the taxes, guys.
00:06:42.860 By the way, to defend Chip Wilson for a second here, Chip Wilson's paid probably more taxes than three, four, five square miles of other people because that's just how it kind of works.
00:06:53.920 He pays a lot of taxes out of a ratio of his income.
00:06:59.080 He makes a lot of money, so he ends up paying a lot of taxes, especially in a pretty aggressively tiered system like we have in British Columbia and Canada.
00:07:08.280 He pays more than half of his income in taxes probably.
00:07:12.100 And then he has to pay property tax on top of that.
00:07:14.680 And the NDP pretending that they can just eke out a little bit more from people like Chip Wilson and then they can pay for their program is ridiculous.
00:07:22.560 I get driven up a wall whenever a government comes out and they release their budget or their platform and they say, see, our platform, we're going to have the deficit go down over time.
00:07:32.600 And it's this stupid little trick that they do where they propose all this new spending.
00:07:36.560 And in theory, if they add not a cent of new spending or barely just increase it a little bit per year for inflation, yes, technically the deficit per capita will be going down or eventually we will outgrow it.
00:07:48.940 But when have these people ever been able to demonstrate the fiscal discipline to spend that money and then not spend anything else?
00:07:57.500 OK, we have the programs we want to maintain.
00:07:59.680 We have a small emergency fund for other stuff.
00:08:01.940 But this is it.
00:08:03.060 They never do it.
00:08:04.440 And you're going to be taken for a fool if you believe that when someone puts out their costed budget, it means anything.
00:08:10.780 If anything, as the NDP and the Greens were calling on the conservatives, put out your costed platform.
00:08:16.420 It doesn't matter.
00:08:17.580 There obviously is going to cost less than you guys.
00:08:19.980 You guys acting like because you had some random like dorm room joker punch out some stuff on a calculator and technically show that there was a grand total at the end that was heavily undershooting how much that budget was actually going to cost.
00:08:32.700 Makes your platform budget any better than the conservatives that's, you know, in the name, like to their namesake is far more conservative is silly.
00:08:43.260 Anyways, but maybe to move on to some polling.
00:08:46.100 We are now in, I believe, the fifth day of the conservatives leading the NDP by five or six points.
00:08:52.960 It's been going back and forth since the debate.
00:08:55.540 First, after the debate, after a full day had taken place where people were answering the polls based on the knowledge of having watched the debate, the conservatives went from literally just one point behind the NDP to three points above.
00:09:08.020 Then they went to five points.
00:09:09.300 Then they went to six points.
00:09:10.260 Then they went back to five points.
00:09:11.600 And now they're five or they went back to six points or five points again.
00:09:14.160 So we are now in a new, I would say, normal when it comes to the polling trends.
00:09:20.680 This is what Main Street put out today.
00:09:22.680 I don't show too much detail because I pay to see all their crosstabs and whatnot.
00:09:26.980 And that wouldn't be fair to them if I just splash out every little polling detail in these videos.
00:09:31.620 But this is looking really good for the conservatives.
00:09:33.720 Forty two percent for the B.C. conservatives and the NDP for probably five, six days, even when they were doing better.
00:09:40.640 It was more so that the conservatives were just lower.
00:09:43.060 The NDP can't crack 40 percent anymore.
00:09:46.380 And now, to forgive me for being a little bit disorganized, but I want to check in on the exact amount of votes that the B.C. NDP had in 2020.
00:09:56.380 So the B.C. NDP ended up winning the last election with 47.69 percent of the popular vote.
00:10:03.420 And the B.C. liberals had 33.77.
00:10:06.040 And in fact, that was actually a closer election than you would probably imagine, because the B.C. liberals had such a vote concentration out in the rural area.
00:10:15.020 So their 33 percent still clinched them 28 seats and the NDP got 57.
00:10:20.060 But right now, I don't see a path to victory where the NDP drop.
00:10:25.080 They drop, what is it, 9 percent.
00:10:29.960 And they somehow, with the B.C. conservatives getting 42, 43 percent, I guarantee they actually probably could pull off a 46 or 47 on election night just based on higher turnouts of B.C. conservative voters, that they're going to swamp the NDP.
00:10:44.320 I know the NDP has a bit of a black backstop and a firewall around downtown Victoria and really deep downtown Vancouver. 0.95
00:10:52.800 But those it's becoming really thin.
00:10:56.960 The firewall that the NDP have is not very safe right now, to put it lightly.
00:11:03.100 It's honestly kind of like the U.S. presidential election in a weird way, like where Trump has a lot of options of states he can win.
00:11:10.100 And Kamala Harris must win the blue wall, Pennsylvania, Michigan or in Wisconsin, all three of them where she can't win. 0.99
00:11:17.240 And that's what I'm kind of feeling like here.
00:11:19.900 Not that the race is similar with the types of people running and the policies being considered.
00:11:24.200 It's a B.C. provincial election.
00:11:25.400 I'm comparing it to like a U.S. presidential election.
00:11:27.600 There's no foreign policy category in B.C. politics.
00:11:31.440 But right now, we have the conservatives.
00:11:35.220 And in this B.C. model that Main Street's put out, I'm not going to I guess I can show it on screen here.
00:11:41.920 In the model that's come out from Main Street Research, right now they're projecting the conservatives winning 49 seats and the NDP only winning 42 seats.
00:11:54.380 It's not the biggest majority ever.
00:11:56.160 And then the Greens would have two.
00:11:57.480 So it's still pretty close because you need 47 seats for the majority.
00:12:01.020 So just be two more seats or the NDP or the B.C. conservatives would have three seat majority with this.
00:12:06.580 I still think that there's way more seats on this map that Main Street has that the B.C. conservatives can win that are currently showing leaning B.C. NDP.
00:12:18.540 And I'm not just saying I have a gut feeling because I don't know.
00:12:21.920 I like the guy running there for the conservatives.
00:12:24.200 But genuinely, I've driven around Coquitlam, Burke Mountain.
00:12:28.540 Very conservative space when you actually walk around.
00:12:30.680 I've talked to people there at the door who said that they were three, three time NDP voters provincially and they're voting conservative now.
00:12:39.220 Tons of people like that all over the place.
00:12:41.260 You want you drive through and all of the signs are pretty much conservative.
00:12:45.020 Obviously, there are liberal NDP signs, but it's like, you know, a ratio of two to one, three to one in many of these high turnout neighborhoods.
00:12:53.160 So when the white right now, the NDP to win, they have to they have a bunch of safe seats.
00:13:00.420 Yes, that probably their safe seats probably get them to about 35 seats.
00:13:04.980 And then the rest of them are either leaning or toss ups.
00:13:08.000 The problem for the NDP is that they have a few more seats that are leaning that they can likely win.
00:13:13.980 And then the rest of them are like coin tosses if they can win them.
00:13:17.620 And so for the B.C. NDP to win, they need to win like eight coin toss seats, like 12 coin toss seats to be able to cross that majority threshold or even get into a minority government situation with the B.C. Greens.
00:13:31.060 For the conservatives to win, they don't need to do that at all.
00:13:34.320 What the conservatives need to do is that their safe seats actually get them pretty close.
00:13:38.300 Their safe seats, I would say, probably get them within 40 and then or like 42.
00:13:43.100 And then they just need about five more seats for the majority and then just seeing how big the majority is.
00:13:48.540 And I think that past the safe seats, the conservatives probably have three or four seats heavily leaning towards them.
00:13:54.400 And then they have an op. Then they have a pool of like 12 toss ups they can win.
00:13:58.740 There's 12 options for them to get to that majority where the B.C. NDP, even if I take the Main Street map for like at face value,
00:14:06.540 even though I've driven through these areas and I know the mood of these areas,
00:14:09.340 I've talked to people in tons of these ridings and you can just feel after a while from speaking to people,
00:14:14.600 somebody who comes across like a default federal liberal voter and a default B.C. NDP or like a very left B.C. liberal voter.
00:14:22.100 Like I have to vote B.C. conservative. I didn't know I was going to do this, but I'm doing it.
00:14:26.340 That when stuff like that's happening, you know, Vancouver Little Mountain is not as in play for the B.C. NDP as you think.
00:14:32.540 I guarantee you, David E.B. only has a 50-50 shot of holding on to his riding.
00:14:37.700 Burke Mountain, probably going conservative. I think Fort Moody Burquitlam is a coin toss riding.
00:14:42.620 Tons of these ridings are coin toss ridings. Even this one had Maple Ridge, Langley, Walnut Grove as a toss up or leaning NDP.
00:14:50.840 I think that's leaning conservative. There's just way too many rural suburban areas who just can't stand how high handed and just anti-business NDP are.
00:15:00.700 Tons of farmers are not showing up. I guarantee the South Asian community is not going to show up to vote for the NDP.
00:15:06.540 SOGI is too big of an issue for them. Tons of them are business owners and farmers.
00:15:10.280 And are they really going to get kicked in the teeth to vote NDP again just because they technically voted NDP in the last races?
00:15:16.100 It's going to be hard to see where the South Asians are going to come down in this election just because it's just a cultural group who doesn't take polling phone calls. 1.00
00:15:25.280 Probably smarter than all of us white people who get on the phone and just start telling people everything we think.
00:15:29.900 And I don't think that those more socially conservative voters can vote hyper-progressive NDP.
00:15:36.660 So this is where I'm very confident. There's a big gambit.
00:15:41.600 Or like for the EB to run, he has to run a very tight gambit.
00:15:45.080 Russ had tons of options. Tons and tons of options.
00:15:48.540 And I think the turnout is actually going to turn a lot of these toss ups into solid conservative ridings on the day of the vote.
00:15:55.740 We already have record-breaking turnout.
00:15:58.320 And I know that sometimes early voting numbers don't really mean anything because it could just be a party pushing out their supporters to get into line and vote early to make sure that day of voting lines are shorter.
00:16:10.120 But the BC Conservatives only had $200,000 of taxpayer money to run this campaign, plus all their donors.
00:16:15.560 Which isn't a lot because it's very hard to nickel and dime your way to a good war chest in BC politics right now.
00:16:20.920 The NDP had $8 million.
00:16:22.620 So with record-breaking turnout, I doubt it's because the NDP are getting people excited to go to the polls.
00:16:27.640 And I think it's that just conservative voters are organically turning up without the conservatives really having to do much.
00:16:33.440 And when that's occurring, that's when you're so dead as an incumbent government, when it's a high-turnout election.
00:16:39.520 Because it's mostly low-turnout elections where people are pretty satisfied and they're willing to...
00:16:45.860 Like, people are pretty satisfied with the government.
00:16:47.800 People who like them show up and people who don't like them, maybe, but don't really think they're doing a bad job.
00:16:53.260 They tend to stay home.
00:16:54.320 And we're not in that type of an election cycle right now.
00:16:58.000 Anyways, that should be it for me today, guys.
00:17:00.680 Remember to like this video, subscribe to the channel, leave a comment if you have any thoughts on the topic or if you have any suggestions for future videos.
00:17:08.140 I remember I had someone even leave a comment the other day that spurred me on to think about doing a video on something specific.
00:17:14.860 I think it was actually the whole carbon tax PBO report coming out.
00:17:18.340 I can go over how the PBO reporter is a complete hack pretending that whatever the liberals said about the carbon tax was just true if he jiggles around the math enough.
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00:18:16.900 See you guys later.