The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - David Eby projected to lose his riding! (CPBC lead by 6%)

00:00:00.200 Ahoy, everyone! It's a great day to be talking about British Columbia provincial politics,

00:00:06.400 because now that we are in the last week of the BC provincial election,

00:00:10.840 things are starting to shift significantly in the BC Conservatives' direction.

00:00:15.940 Yesterday, I said the BC Conservatives got a good poll bump because of the leaders' debate,

00:00:21.140 which was absolutely true, and a day after that, we now have the Conservatives not just

00:00:26.700 three points above the NDP, but six points. And even yesterday, Main Street research in their

00:00:33.680 model of the election was projecting that Premier David Eby, the NDP Premier of British Columbia,

00:00:40.760 is going to lose his own seat in Vancouver Point Grey. That was when the polls were only showing

00:00:45.720 the Conservatives up three. Now that they're up six, he's definitely likely to lose his own riding.

00:00:51.860 And when I say this, I don't say that there is some likelihood, like a 10% shot he might lose,

00:00:57.260 or a 15% shot, or, you know, 30% shot he doesn't win his own riding. I am talking about a majority

00:01:05.000 chance that David Eby does not lose his own riding. And if you know the background of the riding of

00:01:10.720 Vancouver Point Grey, it used to be Gordon Campbell's riding, it was then Christy Clark's riding,

00:01:15.700 who lost the riding to David Eby, not because David Eby is brilliant. He basically performed

00:01:21.980 like any other NDP candidate does in that riding. It was just that Christy Clark was so unpopular,

00:01:27.680 people didn't come out and vote for her. So David Eby getting the typical amount of votes an NDPer got

00:01:32.940 ended up taking her seat. And for some reason, the NDP thought this means he's a brilliant political

00:01:38.440 strategist and decided to make him the new Premier after John Horgan stepped down without a leadership

00:01:44.720 race, mind you, because they bullied all of his opponents out. You know, if you think he can't

00:01:49.720 handle an internal leadership race, because even the NDP base outside of downtown Vancouver thinks he's

00:01:56.220 a radical, maybe don't run him in a general election as your Premier candidate. But that's a side issue for

00:02:03.440 another day to talk about in terms of strategy. But this is the current Main Street election model for

00:02:10.200 the lower mainland. And it is showing in Vancouver Point Grey, the BC Conservative candidate, Paul

00:02:16.360 Ranchford is leading 46.5 to Eby at 38.8. And then the Greens picking up 14.7% of the vote. Obviously,

00:02:25.580 this is only a projection, it might not come true whatsoever. Maybe Eby is secretly super popular

00:02:31.900 around there and he gets 70% of the vote. I highly doubt it. One day I was driving home from helping,

00:02:38.600 from helping Brian Breguet in his riding. I know his riding of Vancouver Langar is actually a little

00:02:44.220 bit more south than I was driving to Abbotsford, but I had to drive somebody home and they were

00:02:47.640 living in Point Grey. But when I was driving through Point Grey, it was all Paul Ranchford signs.

00:02:53.740 And then actually it was Brian Breguet who told me that somebody had made an excuse to him who was

00:02:58.880 with the NDP on why David Eby has so few signs in his own riding. And that person said, well,

00:03:05.540 it's because all of Eby supporters live on second and third floor buildings, like the second and

00:03:10.700 third floor buildings, which doesn't make much sense because most of the homes in Point Grey are

00:03:15.400 still single family detached houses. And I drove down several streets and I could not find a David

00:03:21.620 Eby sign. This isn't me like just driving through the riding for about a minute and then saying,

00:03:27.000 I saw three Paul Ranchford signs and zero Eby signs. That means Paul's winning. No, I mean,

00:03:31.900 I was driving around for a while trying to find David Eby signs. I was just wondering what they

00:03:35.940 looked like if they put his face on them, couldn't find a single one. And it's because the people in

00:03:41.340 this riding are actually very mismatched with David Eby as a representative. David Eby is a radical

00:03:47.780 progressive activist and the people of Point Grey are actually disproportionately more wealthy business

00:03:54.060 owners. They hate his anti-business policies. These are the type of people who absolutely agree

00:03:59.980 with Chip Wilson, who does live in the riding as well, that David Eby is a communist. And while

00:04:05.280 some people might then come out and say, well, he's not a communist, you don't know what communism

00:04:09.580 is. Guys, I know what communism is. It's a bit of a tongue in cheek jab at Eby because there's also

00:04:15.200 no evidence that he likes capitalism in any way, free markets or property rights. The man is not a friend

00:04:21.960 of business. And when I say business, I'm not talking about big business. I'm talking about anyone who

00:04:27.140 wants to do any business of any kind that doesn't want to include the government.

00:04:32.040 Anyways, I want to move on here a little bit more. We'll talk about this map. I don't want to

00:04:36.200 show too much because I do pay for the Main Street subscription and it would be a bit rude to them

00:04:40.200 if I just spilled out all their data. But things are looking very good for the conservatives in this

00:04:44.940 Vancouver metro area. It looks like the conservatives are just going to sweep Richmond. Langara is a lock.

00:04:51.260 Vancouver at Quilchina is a lock. A lot of these ridings in Vancouver are actually very solid

00:04:58.120 conservative areas. And then I think we actually not only will be picking up Coquitlam-Burke

00:05:04.060 Mountain, but I think we'll even grab probably these toss-ups like Port Moody-Burquitlam where I'm

00:05:09.360 helping Doorknock these days. I don't think in these toss-up or soft NDP ridings that the NDP is

00:05:15.820 actually going to be able to pull off the numbers that the projections are showing them. Because

00:05:21.120 these projections are based on ideal turnout that if your people actually turn out for you, this is

00:05:28.140 the number that they assume you'll get. I don't think the NDP is energized or at least their base

00:05:33.560 is energized. They don't have a reason to show up and vote. Maybe a bunch of them are just anti-conservative

00:05:39.020 voters and so they will vote for the NDP because, you know, John Rustad's mean or whatever.

00:05:44.240 But that's not exactly a winning narrative. That's, in fact, a losing narrative. That is you

00:05:50.780 saying, I'm voting just because I don't like the other guy. And that's not exactly something that's

00:05:55.520 going to get people running around the block, knocking on doors and running to the polling

00:06:00.320 stations to vote themselves. That's a loser narrative that we suck at our jobs, sure, but the other guys 0.93

00:06:06.580 could be worse. Or don't let them in because they're evil fascist conservatives. Nobody actually 1.00

00:06:11.860 believes that. And nobody is risk as averse to what John Rustad and the conservatives are offering.

00:06:17.920 Lower taxes, tougher on crime policies, getting rid of insane drug policies, focusing the school

00:06:24.040 system back on academics and away from social issue garbage. Everyone likes that. And maybe for a second

00:06:30.340 here, before I get into the projections, although I'll just give you a hint of them right here, this is

00:06:34.880 what they look like with undecideds added in. We not only are seeing the undecideds shrink over time,

00:06:40.060 but both the conservatives are taking votes away from the NDP, as well as the Greens are taking

00:06:45.440 away votes from the NDP. People are going to start pretending that they've never voted NDP in

00:06:50.960 their entire lives, even though most of the province has probably voted NDP at some point.

00:06:56.000 Everyone wants to deny that they've ever known David Eby or ever thought he might have been a good

00:07:00.100 premier at one point. But there is a myth. And this is something that actually a lot of red Tories

00:07:05.920 tend to perpetuate in conservative circles. And I think that it's been decisively, their theories

00:07:11.960 of politics were decisively proven wrong with the failed leadership of the Conservative Party

00:07:16.580 in Erin O'Toole. Moderate voters are not moderate by temperament. Just because they're moderate

00:07:22.980 doesn't mean they want mild policy. They don't just want a slight cleanup of the tax code. They don't

00:07:28.800 want just slightly more efficient ways of spending the money that the government's already collecting.

00:07:33.360 Right now, moderates in BC want tough on crime policies. They want significant tax reductions.

00:07:40.180 They want a lot more resource projects approved. They want way more houses built. They want to

00:07:45.360 slash bureaucracy. Moderates are only moderate because they don't have the same views as an

00:07:51.900 orthodox conservative or an orthodox NDP person. They can have some collective views on like eclectic

00:07:58.140 views on certain issues. But right now, the moderates in BC are definitely conservative

00:08:04.360 minded voters right now. They may not be pro-life people. They may not be hawkish on foreign policy.

00:08:11.160 They may not be, you know, I guess, Christian conservative types. But they are very much not

00:08:17.100 NDP or progressive. They are conservative by temperament of the issues that are driving their votes

00:08:22.660 this year. Other years in 2015, for example, the populist type voters were actually more to the center

00:08:29.760 left for Justin Trudeau, that Stephen Harper had gotten old and stuffy in office and we want the

00:08:35.460 sunshine back. And for some reason, that's Justin Trudeau. You know, we want sunny ways. So the people,

00:08:41.340 the attitude of the moderate voter in 2015 was more social programs, was being okay with deficit spending,

00:08:48.120 to gird up the healthcare system and all this stuff, which Justin Trudeau completely threw down the

00:08:52.680 drain through mass immigration and all the other crazy policies he implemented that undermined his

00:08:58.340 increased social spending. So not only do we have massive deficits and debt, we also don't have

00:09:02.840 enough resources to go around because he imported a million people in like certain years. And so per

00:09:08.640 capita, our actual quality of life is going down. So but to get back to BC, this is where I think

00:09:15.940 that the NDP is going to undershoot their projected vote numbers because their people don't have a

00:09:21.820 reason to show up and vote. They're just voting maybe because they don't like the conservatives,

00:09:25.520 but that's not a reason really to vote. The conservative voters are showing up because

00:09:29.140 they hate David Eby. They hate the NDP and they really like John Rustad and John Rustad policies.

00:09:34.820 They have a lot of reasons to vote for. The NDP have like one. I don't like the conservatives

00:09:39.100 because the NDP definitely haven't been doing a good enough job for having people running out the

00:09:43.480 door saying we need another four years of this. Nobody actually thinks we do. But now let's just

00:09:49.240 kind of scroll through the data here from Main Street. So we have 36 for the NDP, 42 for the

00:09:55.900 conservatives. And it gets even worse when you start to look at decided voters. I'm just going to skip

00:10:00.480 through this stuff. It's just age demographic type data. I think this is the one interesting bit we can

00:10:06.020 talk about. The conservatives are currently winning 46.7 percent of male voters, but the NDP is only

00:10:12.680 winning 38.7 percent of female voters. And they only have a 0.2 lead over the conservatives. And I

00:10:19.600 was predicting this to people in the background. I'm not trying to be too rude to David Eby. When

00:10:24.940 women see David Eby on stage, they immediately think weak. And women hate weak looking leaders, 1.00

00:10:32.180 weak sounding people. They actually like tough on crime type politicians. Even I'm talking about more

00:10:38.140 center left women. A lot of more center left women are voting for security. And oftentimes that's bound 1.00

00:10:44.720 up and having more social benefits for having a better social safety net. But because the NDP have

00:10:49.760 betrayed women so much on actual personal security around crime and drugs, a lot of people are moving 1.00

00:10:56.000 towards Rustad. And David Eby's obnoxious performance in the leaders debate and weakness without good

00:11:03.460 posture, pointing at people, staring at them. That turned off a lot of women from voting for the guy, 1.00

00:11:09.640 I believe. Anyways, but I now want to show you the horrifying numbers of how people voted in 2020

00:11:15.700 and how they're saying that they're going to vote in the 2024 provincial election.

00:11:22.360 Right now, only 67 percent of people who voted for Horgan's NDP in 2020 are planning on voting for

00:11:29.680 EB's. That's terrible. EB has been suffering at these low ratings for the entire election. He has not

00:11:36.660 gained any more confidence in his NDP base. And the conservatives are actually cleaning up 20 percent

00:11:42.300 of the 2020 NDP vote. And the conservatives, even though they don't really have that much to do with

00:11:48.760 the B.C. Liberal Party, they're grabbing up 70 percent of their 2020 vote, with the NDP only grabbing up

00:11:55.300 16. And then they are even taking 20 percent of first nose green vote from 2020. And EB is only

00:12:03.280 grabbing up 18 percent. Another party, which included the B.C. Conservatives in 2020, since they were just

00:12:09.060 a fringe party back then, they are grabbing up 70.9 percent of another party. And that's a significant

00:12:14.460 sample size. 84 people don't remember, didn't vote. 52 percent, 52.9. So 53 percent of people who didn't vote

00:12:22.860 or don't remember who they voted for. Again, I've said this before, I really don't, I doubt anyone

00:12:28.660 didn't remember. I think most people in this category just didn't vote. 52, 53 percent of people

00:12:34.840 in that category voting conservative. Only 17.6 are voting NDP. And there's still 18 percent more

00:12:40.820 undecided. And if it go, unless EB can win 100 percent of the undecideds in these categories,

00:12:46.680 he's toast. He has nowhere to get more votes from. I want to see if I can pull up the chart of decided

00:12:52.720 voters because it's absolutely pathetic. 0.75

00:12:59.500 Yeah, I think this is one, it still has some undecides in it, but these are like true undecideds 0.96

00:13:03.740 without leaners added in, people who are likely to vote. 43 conservative, 38 NDP, 4 percent undecided,

00:13:10.920 11 percent green. The conservatives are leading by more than there are legitimate undecided voters left.

00:13:18.800 And I don't think that the conservatives are going to not take any more of these undecided voters. I

00:13:23.300 think that the undecided voters are going to keep splitting two to one like we've been seeing towards

00:13:27.800 the conservatives. And if that happens, forget about David EB just losing his riding. I think

00:13:32.760 you're going to have a lot of these ridings where the NDP didn't invest that much time and effort

00:13:36.760 because they assume it's a safe seat. We don't have to try too hard and they could lose these areas.

00:13:41.500 I think there are some places rated on the Main Street model as safe, which are not safe at all.

00:13:47.840 They just happen to be ridings that the BC NDP won hard in 2020, which is a very different election

00:13:53.580 from this election. There are places like Haida Gwaii. I've heard that from the candidate on the

00:13:58.420 ground, Chris Sankey and his manager, Ryan Painter, they're having great responses on the island of

00:14:03.800 Haida Gwaii, on the mainland areas, those small rural towns, tons of people like them. It's a heavy

00:14:09.960 First Nations riding and those people hate David EB because he sucks at his job. It doesn't matter 0.98

00:14:14.720 all of the sort of virtue signaling he does around indigenous issues and how much he tries to smear

00:14:19.740 the conservatives for being anti-indigenous based on literally nothing. They don't like him.

00:14:25.040 There are tons of ridings on Vancouver Island I don't think are possible to go NDP, even if they

00:14:31.040 project them NDP, because the drug issues are too bad for NDP partisans to ignore. So even if they like

00:14:37.040 the NDP more than the conservatives, they might cast a ballot for the conservatives, cast a ballot for

00:14:40.900 the greens to at least say, well, I didn't vote for the NDP, or they'll just stay home. I think this is

00:14:46.000 going to be a big stay home election right now for the NDP. Anyways, I think that's a good little snapshot

00:14:53.160 of what's currently going on in the province. The conservatives still have a few more policies to

00:14:57.980 release before the end of the election. They have big announcements pretty much every day up until I think

00:15:03.700 the last two days. And the NDP continues to just talk about how much they don't like the conservatives.

00:15:10.980 You got to earn the ability to be negative. The NDP have not earned the ability to cast

00:15:15.940 versions at other people when their governance has been so horrible. But anyways, that's it for me

00:15:21.040 today, guys. If you want to support this show, go down to the description below and donate to the

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00:15:36.940 to like this video, subscribe to the channel if you haven't, and recommend it to a friend if you can.

00:15:43.020 Anyways, have a good day, everyone. See you later.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - October 11, 2024

David Eby projected to lose his riding! (CPBC lead by 6%)

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