David Eby projected to lose his riding! (CPBC lead by 6%)
Episode Stats
Words per Minute
183.83534
Summary
BC Tories are now 6 points clear of the NDP in the race for premier in Vancouver-Point Grey, which means that David Eby is likely to lose his own riding. I talk about why this is happening, and why it's not a good thing.
Transcript
00:00:00.200
Ahoy, everyone! It's a great day to be talking about British Columbia provincial politics,
00:00:06.400
because now that we are in the last week of the BC provincial election,
00:00:10.840
things are starting to shift significantly in the BC Conservatives' direction.
00:00:15.940
Yesterday, I said the BC Conservatives got a good poll bump because of the leaders' debate,
00:00:21.140
which was absolutely true, and a day after that, we now have the Conservatives not just
00:00:26.700
three points above the NDP, but six points. And even yesterday, Main Street research in their
00:00:33.680
model of the election was projecting that Premier David Eby, the NDP Premier of British Columbia,
00:00:40.760
is going to lose his own seat in Vancouver Point Grey. That was when the polls were only showing
00:00:45.720
the Conservatives up three. Now that they're up six, he's definitely likely to lose his own riding.
00:00:51.860
And when I say this, I don't say that there is some likelihood, like a 10% shot he might lose,
00:00:57.260
or a 15% shot, or, you know, 30% shot he doesn't win his own riding. I am talking about a majority
00:01:05.000
chance that David Eby does not lose his own riding. And if you know the background of the riding of
00:01:10.720
Vancouver Point Grey, it used to be Gordon Campbell's riding, it was then Christy Clark's riding,
00:01:15.700
who lost the riding to David Eby, not because David Eby is brilliant. He basically performed
00:01:21.980
like any other NDP candidate does in that riding. It was just that Christy Clark was so unpopular,
00:01:27.680
people didn't come out and vote for her. So David Eby getting the typical amount of votes an NDPer got
00:01:32.940
ended up taking her seat. And for some reason, the NDP thought this means he's a brilliant political
00:01:38.440
strategist and decided to make him the new Premier after John Horgan stepped down without a leadership
00:01:44.720
race, mind you, because they bullied all of his opponents out. You know, if you think he can't
00:01:49.720
handle an internal leadership race, because even the NDP base outside of downtown Vancouver thinks he's
00:01:56.220
a radical, maybe don't run him in a general election as your Premier candidate. But that's a side issue for
00:02:03.440
another day to talk about in terms of strategy. But this is the current Main Street election model for
00:02:10.200
the lower mainland. And it is showing in Vancouver Point Grey, the BC Conservative candidate, Paul
00:02:16.360
Ranchford is leading 46.5 to Eby at 38.8. And then the Greens picking up 14.7% of the vote. Obviously,
00:02:25.580
this is only a projection, it might not come true whatsoever. Maybe Eby is secretly super popular
00:02:31.900
around there and he gets 70% of the vote. I highly doubt it. One day I was driving home from helping,
00:02:38.600
from helping Brian Breguet in his riding. I know his riding of Vancouver Langar is actually a little
00:02:44.220
bit more south than I was driving to Abbotsford, but I had to drive somebody home and they were
00:02:47.640
living in Point Grey. But when I was driving through Point Grey, it was all Paul Ranchford signs.
00:02:53.740
And then actually it was Brian Breguet who told me that somebody had made an excuse to him who was
00:02:58.880
with the NDP on why David Eby has so few signs in his own riding. And that person said, well,
00:03:05.540
it's because all of Eby supporters live on second and third floor buildings, like the second and
00:03:10.700
third floor buildings, which doesn't make much sense because most of the homes in Point Grey are
00:03:15.400
still single family detached houses. And I drove down several streets and I could not find a David
00:03:21.620
Eby sign. This isn't me like just driving through the riding for about a minute and then saying,
00:03:27.000
I saw three Paul Ranchford signs and zero Eby signs. That means Paul's winning. No, I mean,
00:03:31.900
I was driving around for a while trying to find David Eby signs. I was just wondering what they
00:03:35.940
looked like if they put his face on them, couldn't find a single one. And it's because the people in
00:03:41.340
this riding are actually very mismatched with David Eby as a representative. David Eby is a radical
00:03:47.780
progressive activist and the people of Point Grey are actually disproportionately more wealthy business
00:03:54.060
owners. They hate his anti-business policies. These are the type of people who absolutely agree
00:03:59.980
with Chip Wilson, who does live in the riding as well, that David Eby is a communist. And while
00:04:05.280
some people might then come out and say, well, he's not a communist, you don't know what communism
00:04:09.580
is. Guys, I know what communism is. It's a bit of a tongue in cheek jab at Eby because there's also
00:04:15.200
no evidence that he likes capitalism in any way, free markets or property rights. The man is not a friend
00:04:21.960
of business. And when I say business, I'm not talking about big business. I'm talking about anyone who
00:04:27.140
wants to do any business of any kind that doesn't want to include the government.
00:04:32.040
Anyways, I want to move on here a little bit more. We'll talk about this map. I don't want to
00:04:36.200
show too much because I do pay for the Main Street subscription and it would be a bit rude to them
00:04:40.200
if I just spilled out all their data. But things are looking very good for the conservatives in this
00:04:44.940
Vancouver metro area. It looks like the conservatives are just going to sweep Richmond. Langara is a lock.
00:04:51.260
Vancouver at Quilchina is a lock. A lot of these ridings in Vancouver are actually very solid
00:04:58.120
conservative areas. And then I think we actually not only will be picking up Coquitlam-Burke
00:05:04.060
Mountain, but I think we'll even grab probably these toss-ups like Port Moody-Burquitlam where I'm
00:05:09.360
helping Doorknock these days. I don't think in these toss-up or soft NDP ridings that the NDP is
00:05:15.820
actually going to be able to pull off the numbers that the projections are showing them. Because
00:05:21.120
these projections are based on ideal turnout that if your people actually turn out for you, this is
00:05:28.140
the number that they assume you'll get. I don't think the NDP is energized or at least their base
00:05:33.560
is energized. They don't have a reason to show up and vote. Maybe a bunch of them are just anti-conservative
00:05:39.020
voters and so they will vote for the NDP because, you know, John Rustad's mean or whatever.
00:05:44.240
But that's not exactly a winning narrative. That's, in fact, a losing narrative. That is you
00:05:50.780
saying, I'm voting just because I don't like the other guy. And that's not exactly something that's
00:05:55.520
going to get people running around the block, knocking on doors and running to the polling
00:06:00.320
stations to vote themselves. That's a loser narrative that we suck at our jobs, sure, but the other guys
00:06:06.580
could be worse. Or don't let them in because they're evil fascist conservatives. Nobody actually
00:06:11.860
believes that. And nobody is risk as averse to what John Rustad and the conservatives are offering.
00:06:17.920
Lower taxes, tougher on crime policies, getting rid of insane drug policies, focusing the school
00:06:24.040
system back on academics and away from social issue garbage. Everyone likes that. And maybe for a second
00:06:30.340
here, before I get into the projections, although I'll just give you a hint of them right here, this is
00:06:34.880
what they look like with undecideds added in. We not only are seeing the undecideds shrink over time,
00:06:40.060
but both the conservatives are taking votes away from the NDP, as well as the Greens are taking
00:06:45.440
away votes from the NDP. People are going to start pretending that they've never voted NDP in
00:06:50.960
their entire lives, even though most of the province has probably voted NDP at some point.
00:06:56.000
Everyone wants to deny that they've ever known David Eby or ever thought he might have been a good
00:07:00.100
premier at one point. But there is a myth. And this is something that actually a lot of red Tories
00:07:05.920
tend to perpetuate in conservative circles. And I think that it's been decisively, their theories
00:07:11.960
of politics were decisively proven wrong with the failed leadership of the Conservative Party
00:07:16.580
in Erin O'Toole. Moderate voters are not moderate by temperament. Just because they're moderate
00:07:22.980
doesn't mean they want mild policy. They don't just want a slight cleanup of the tax code. They don't
00:07:28.800
want just slightly more efficient ways of spending the money that the government's already collecting.
00:07:33.360
Right now, moderates in BC want tough on crime policies. They want significant tax reductions.
00:07:40.180
They want a lot more resource projects approved. They want way more houses built. They want to
00:07:45.360
slash bureaucracy. Moderates are only moderate because they don't have the same views as an
00:07:51.900
orthodox conservative or an orthodox NDP person. They can have some collective views on like eclectic
00:07:58.140
views on certain issues. But right now, the moderates in BC are definitely conservative
00:08:04.360
minded voters right now. They may not be pro-life people. They may not be hawkish on foreign policy.
00:08:11.160
They may not be, you know, I guess, Christian conservative types. But they are very much not
00:08:17.100
NDP or progressive. They are conservative by temperament of the issues that are driving their votes
00:08:22.660
this year. Other years in 2015, for example, the populist type voters were actually more to the center
00:08:29.760
left for Justin Trudeau, that Stephen Harper had gotten old and stuffy in office and we want the
00:08:35.460
sunshine back. And for some reason, that's Justin Trudeau. You know, we want sunny ways. So the people,
00:08:41.340
the attitude of the moderate voter in 2015 was more social programs, was being okay with deficit spending,
00:08:48.120
to gird up the healthcare system and all this stuff, which Justin Trudeau completely threw down the
00:08:52.680
drain through mass immigration and all the other crazy policies he implemented that undermined his
00:08:58.340
increased social spending. So not only do we have massive deficits and debt, we also don't have
00:09:02.840
enough resources to go around because he imported a million people in like certain years. And so per
00:09:08.640
capita, our actual quality of life is going down. So but to get back to BC, this is where I think
00:09:15.940
that the NDP is going to undershoot their projected vote numbers because their people don't have a
00:09:21.820
reason to show up and vote. They're just voting maybe because they don't like the conservatives,
00:09:25.520
but that's not a reason really to vote. The conservative voters are showing up because
00:09:29.140
they hate David Eby. They hate the NDP and they really like John Rustad and John Rustad policies.
00:09:34.820
They have a lot of reasons to vote for. The NDP have like one. I don't like the conservatives
00:09:39.100
because the NDP definitely haven't been doing a good enough job for having people running out the
00:09:43.480
door saying we need another four years of this. Nobody actually thinks we do. But now let's just
00:09:49.240
kind of scroll through the data here from Main Street. So we have 36 for the NDP, 42 for the
00:09:55.900
conservatives. And it gets even worse when you start to look at decided voters. I'm just going to skip
00:10:00.480
through this stuff. It's just age demographic type data. I think this is the one interesting bit we can
00:10:06.020
talk about. The conservatives are currently winning 46.7 percent of male voters, but the NDP is only
00:10:12.680
winning 38.7 percent of female voters. And they only have a 0.2 lead over the conservatives. And I
00:10:19.600
was predicting this to people in the background. I'm not trying to be too rude to David Eby. When
00:10:24.940
women see David Eby on stage, they immediately think weak. And women hate weak looking leaders,
00:10:32.180
weak sounding people. They actually like tough on crime type politicians. Even I'm talking about more
00:10:38.140
center left women. A lot of more center left women are voting for security. And oftentimes that's bound
00:10:44.720
up and having more social benefits for having a better social safety net. But because the NDP have
00:10:49.760
betrayed women so much on actual personal security around crime and drugs, a lot of people are moving
00:10:56.000
towards Rustad. And David Eby's obnoxious performance in the leaders debate and weakness without good
00:11:03.460
posture, pointing at people, staring at them. That turned off a lot of women from voting for the guy,
00:11:09.640
I believe. Anyways, but I now want to show you the horrifying numbers of how people voted in 2020
00:11:15.700
and how they're saying that they're going to vote in the 2024 provincial election.
00:11:22.360
Right now, only 67 percent of people who voted for Horgan's NDP in 2020 are planning on voting for
00:11:29.680
EB's. That's terrible. EB has been suffering at these low ratings for the entire election. He has not
00:11:36.660
gained any more confidence in his NDP base. And the conservatives are actually cleaning up 20 percent
00:11:42.300
of the 2020 NDP vote. And the conservatives, even though they don't really have that much to do with
00:11:48.760
the B.C. Liberal Party, they're grabbing up 70 percent of their 2020 vote, with the NDP only grabbing up
00:11:55.300
16. And then they are even taking 20 percent of first nose green vote from 2020. And EB is only
00:12:03.280
grabbing up 18 percent. Another party, which included the B.C. Conservatives in 2020, since they were just
00:12:09.060
a fringe party back then, they are grabbing up 70.9 percent of another party. And that's a significant
00:12:14.460
sample size. 84 people don't remember, didn't vote. 52 percent, 52.9. So 53 percent of people who didn't vote
00:12:22.860
or don't remember who they voted for. Again, I've said this before, I really don't, I doubt anyone
00:12:28.660
didn't remember. I think most people in this category just didn't vote. 52, 53 percent of people
00:12:34.840
in that category voting conservative. Only 17.6 are voting NDP. And there's still 18 percent more
00:12:40.820
undecided. And if it go, unless EB can win 100 percent of the undecideds in these categories,
00:12:46.680
he's toast. He has nowhere to get more votes from. I want to see if I can pull up the chart of decided
00:12:59.500
Yeah, I think this is one, it still has some undecides in it, but these are like true undecideds
00:13:03.740
without leaners added in, people who are likely to vote. 43 conservative, 38 NDP, 4 percent undecided,
00:13:10.920
11 percent green. The conservatives are leading by more than there are legitimate undecided voters left.
00:13:18.800
And I don't think that the conservatives are going to not take any more of these undecided voters. I
00:13:23.300
think that the undecided voters are going to keep splitting two to one like we've been seeing towards
00:13:27.800
the conservatives. And if that happens, forget about David EB just losing his riding. I think
00:13:32.760
you're going to have a lot of these ridings where the NDP didn't invest that much time and effort
00:13:36.760
because they assume it's a safe seat. We don't have to try too hard and they could lose these areas.
00:13:41.500
I think there are some places rated on the Main Street model as safe, which are not safe at all.
00:13:47.840
They just happen to be ridings that the BC NDP won hard in 2020, which is a very different election
00:13:53.580
from this election. There are places like Haida Gwaii. I've heard that from the candidate on the
00:13:58.420
ground, Chris Sankey and his manager, Ryan Painter, they're having great responses on the island of
00:14:03.800
Haida Gwaii, on the mainland areas, those small rural towns, tons of people like them. It's a heavy
00:14:09.960
First Nations riding and those people hate David EB because he sucks at his job. It doesn't matter
00:14:14.720
all of the sort of virtue signaling he does around indigenous issues and how much he tries to smear
00:14:19.740
the conservatives for being anti-indigenous based on literally nothing. They don't like him.
00:14:25.040
There are tons of ridings on Vancouver Island I don't think are possible to go NDP, even if they
00:14:31.040
project them NDP, because the drug issues are too bad for NDP partisans to ignore. So even if they like
00:14:37.040
the NDP more than the conservatives, they might cast a ballot for the conservatives, cast a ballot for
00:14:40.900
the greens to at least say, well, I didn't vote for the NDP, or they'll just stay home. I think this is
00:14:46.000
going to be a big stay home election right now for the NDP. Anyways, I think that's a good little snapshot
00:14:53.160
of what's currently going on in the province. The conservatives still have a few more policies to
00:14:57.980
release before the end of the election. They have big announcements pretty much every day up until I think
00:15:03.700
the last two days. And the NDP continues to just talk about how much they don't like the conservatives.
00:15:10.980
You got to earn the ability to be negative. The NDP have not earned the ability to cast
00:15:15.940
versions at other people when their governance has been so horrible. But anyways, that's it for me
00:15:21.040
today, guys. If you want to support this show, go down to the description below and donate to the
00:15:26.580
Give, Send, Go legal fund we're running. I also have the link for that pinned at the top of the
00:15:32.360
comments. If you have any suggestions for other videos, leave that down in the comments. Make sure
00:15:36.940
to like this video, subscribe to the channel if you haven't, and recommend it to a friend if you can.
00:15:43.020
Anyways, have a good day, everyone. See you later.