The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - June 27, 2024


David Eby's NDP is slowing while BC Conservative speed up

Topics
BC Conservatives election
Hosted by
Wyatt Claypool
Mentioned
David Eby Kevin Falcon John Rustad John Horgan Unsure
Trudeau's Liberals prove how little they care for Canadians Liberal MPs call for Justin Trudeau to Resign!

Episode Stats


Length

10 minutes

Words per minute

196.93

Word count

2,166

Sentence count

114

Harmful content

Misogyny

1

sentences flagged

Toxicity

1

sentences flagged

Hate speech

1

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

It's been a hot minute since I talked about the BCUD election, and a lot of things have changed. The momentum has shifted in favor of the BC Conservatives, and the BC NDP is in a pick-me-up position, but there's still a long way to go in the race.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Topics generated with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct.
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 Well, it's been a hot minute since I talked about the British Columbia provincial election coming up this fall, and a lot of things have changed. It doesn't really look like things have changed, but there definitely has been a momentum shift in this race.
00:00:12.540 We are now fully through the stupid fight that BC United tried to instigate with the BC Conservatives. The BC Conservatives decisively beat them, got two of their MLAs to cross the floor, and are now even having BC United candidates, people that they fought hard to agree to run for their party to say, yeah, I'm not going to do it anymore. You guys are a complete failed vehicle. 0.68
00:00:33.540 So now John Rustad and the BC Conservatives decisively have momentum going into this provincial election, and the BC NDP are in not a very comfortable position, because although new polls like this one from Research Co. show them up seven points on the BC Conservatives, the problem is, for the BC NDP, is that they're running a purely defensive campaign at this point.
00:00:56.600 Being purely defensive is horrible, because the best you can do in any given day is not lose ground. And so now they're having to rely on the BC Conservatives just not exploiting the momentum properly that they have, and so far they've been doing a really good job.
00:01:12.620 I just want to quickly pull up on screen before I dissect that poll a little bit more, of just the numbers that we've been seeing over the past three or four months, because it has been painting a picture of a come-from-behind win for the BC Conservatives.
00:01:27.280 Just back in March, the NDP was getting polls showing them up 17 points, 18 points, and now a good poll for them is being up 7 points or 10, but even in between then, we've seen polls where the BC Conservatives were either tied with the BC NDP, with David Eby's BC NDP, or they were even above, even that one that you see below the Main Street Research one that was a tie.
00:01:53.500 When you corrected for likely voters, the BC Conservatives were winning by 6 points. So that's the problem for the BC NDP. They are a default choice for a lot of voters, because naturally, when voters picked you in the last election, they're fairly likely to pick you in the next one, unless you absolutely set the province on fire, which is very close to what the BC NDP have done.
00:02:14.880 So the BC NDP right now are working with a massive amount of soft support, and I'm going to bring up some polls here that prove that, because although David Eby is supposedly the second most popular premier in the entire country, when you actually ask people who they'd prefer to be the premier of British Columbia, it gets a little bit more hazy.
00:02:35.820 His popularity doesn't actually, you know, transpose itself directly to who you actually want to be the premier of the province. It's just that, you know, they don't really know much about him, because he's an unelected premier.
00:02:47.200 He was effectively acclaimed as the BC NDP leader and the premier of British Columbia after John Horgan stepped down, and so people just have generically positive opinions about him, because, you know, you'll want to think nice things about a man you don't know much about.
00:03:01.960 So here is the best premier polling from this research co-poll. David Eby gets 28%, John Rested, 14%, Kevin Falcon, 13%, First and No gets 11%, None of the Above, 12%, and Unsure, 22%.
00:03:16.960 That is not a good poll, considering that we supposedly have David Eby with, oh, sorry, that's the Toronto St. Paul election results. I had another one I didn't screenshot earlier, but David Eby's positive approval rating, he has a net approval rating of, I believe, 35%.
00:03:34.440 That's really good, but it proves kind of hollow when you actually ask people, well, who do you prefer to be the premier of a province? And only a little bit more than a quarter of people are saying, I guess David Eby.
00:03:45.520 He has 40% in this poll, people saying that they're probably going to vote for the BC NDP. But again, only 28% of people would prefer him to be the premier of the province. And now, with the Greens at 15%, they might be able to catch a little bit of momentum, especially around the Vancouver Island area, and steal away a lot of the NDP support and potentially a few seats if people start cooling on David Eby.
00:04:09.520 And as people start to learn more about him, I don't think that he's been particularly rubbing off on people in a way that's positive. The more he talks in a certain sense, the worse he is off on policy, because they realize, no, no, no, he is a true believer in decriminalization. He is truly anti-cop.
00:04:27.340 He actually does want to raise taxes in order to pay for a lot of his boondoggle schemes around affordable housing that are actually going to make there to be less housing affordability and availability. When the government gets involved and starts throwing out taxpayer dollars for affordable housing, what they're doing is stealing money out of the pot that would have built 10 houses in order to build three houses that are affordable houses. And so that's also a problem that he has here.
00:04:55.220 Oh, I found the poll where it has the approval ratings. But yeah, David Eby has a net approval rating of 18, first to no three. Rustad has a plus one, which is actually quite good because a lot of people still don't know who he is. And a lot of media is just anti-conservative propaganda at this point in British Columbia. Kevin Falcon has tumbled all the way down to having an approval rating of negative 14%. Absolutely terrible.
00:05:19.240 And so what I think a lot of BC residents now need to be told by the BC Conservative Party, because right now is not a good time to take the foot off the gas. I don't think they've done that. I think they've been managing their affairs quite well.
00:05:30.720 But we need a scorched earth campaign that really demonstrates what kind of man David Eby is. He's somebody who writes anti-cop books. He is pro decriminalization. He is pro safe supply. He is pro carbon tax. He is pro gender theory, all these things. He is a radical hippie who somehow lucked his way into becoming the premier of British Columbia without even a leadership race.
00:05:52.860 The leadership race for the BC NDP was a complete joke. They told nobody else to run against him because he was really vulnerable and they didn't want to show that even their own members don't like this guy.
00:06:03.780 So they made sure to bully everyone out of the leadership race. It was a complete joke of a race where they basically just said, David Eby is the leader and they raised his hand.
00:06:11.920 So that's what the BC Conservatives need to do. If you want more needles on the street, if you want higher taxes, more crime, just worse education, worse health care, then you should be voting for the BC NDP.
00:06:23.500 Because unfortunately, in some of these polls, when you actually ask people what they think about the different party leaders on the issues, David Eby still has the advantage on issues of health care and education.
00:06:33.940 It's not because he's doing a good job. He's doing an utterly terrible job. British Columbia now has the worst wait times in the entire country for things like knee surgeries that are usually used as a staple demarcation line for how a government's doing on wait times for like decently complex procedures.
00:06:52.920 He's terrible on education. He has severely watered down the educational quality for British Columbia students and injected more ideology into it.
00:07:01.740 But the NDP, and this is across the country, has an unfair advantage on these issues because they talk so much about social services and the public sector that people assume that anything that's involved in the public sector and any social programs, they must be good with.
00:07:16.640 They're terrible with them. They just talk about them a lot.
00:07:19.280 And so the BC Conservatives has to show just how much they've ruined a lot of these institutions around the province in order to get the advantage.
00:07:27.180 It's said a lot, and it's not true, that negative campaigning doesn't work.
00:07:32.300 Negative campaigning works really well, especially when you're giving people factual information that makes them think, well, good thing I know that. 0.91
00:07:40.040 I'm not voting for them anymore. And that's what needs to happen more in BC.
00:07:43.680 The BC NDP is full of just basically wacko environmentalists, people who don't actually care about the standard of living of British Columbians.
00:07:52.860 They don't care if their life gets better or worse. They care about the climate emergency.
00:07:57.700 They care about decriminalization. They care about gender equity and stuff like that, things that are completely immaterial to the vast, vast majority of people's lives in BC.
00:08:07.720 So the other thing I'd urge you to do, because although I'm not paid by any party to say these things, I do urge you, if you live in British Columbia, donate to the BC Conservatives.
00:08:17.940 They probably need a few million dollars to be able to win this race. 0.96
00:08:21.320 And if you live there, if you donate $100, I think you get a 75% back tax credit.
00:08:25.920 So I will have a link in the description of this video below to donate to the BC Conservatives.
00:08:31.720 If you don't want to pay taxes, you kind of have to put your money where your mouth is and fund the party that's going to lower your taxes, who's going to fix things.
00:08:38.520 Because I find a lot of the time we as Conservatives don't mobilize behind the people we need to in order to win office.
00:08:44.980 So if you can donate, volunteer, do anything you can for your local BC Conservative candidate, that would be great.
00:08:50.740 They probably need a million dollars by the end of this quarter to win.
00:08:54.040 They're $100,000 away from that.
00:08:56.120 So make sure you do donate to them.
00:08:58.060 Make sure you volunteer.
00:08:59.700 Do everything you can, because if you don't do it, you shouldn't expect anyone else to do it.
00:09:04.700 This is the kind of mantra I've been putting out all across the country.
00:09:08.720 I've put my money where my mouth is and done the work in my areas where I've touched on in Alberta.
00:09:15.080 I've helped swing ridings in the Alberta provincial election.
00:09:18.480 And it really does take consistency, hard work, and the ability to confront political opponents, like straight on, not kind of doing this smiling thing that everyone's so great.
00:09:29.800 We need to just, you know, unite together.
00:09:31.860 And so we can do good things for BC.
00:09:33.680 Because this election is not about whose vision of BC should rule the day.
00:09:38.240 It's about, do you want more needles on the street or do you want less needles on the street?
00:09:42.360 Do you want more taxes or less taxes?
00:09:44.460 So make sure you get involved with the BC Conservatives.
00:09:46.520 If you are out in BC, do not vote United.
00:09:48.860 They are a fourth place party now.
00:09:50.780 There is not a single rioting in British Columbia where they have a better chance to win than the BC Conservatives.
00:09:55.940 So make sure you get behind the party that can win.
00:09:58.240 Tell your friends about it and whatnot.
00:10:00.380 But that should be where I'm going to end off this episode.
00:10:02.500 If you guys don't live in British Columbia, consider donating to my legal fund in the description below.
00:10:08.280 The Give, Send, Go link there is where you can donate.
00:10:11.100 We have a billionaire developer suing us for defamation that after two and a half years, he hasn't even put any evidence forward to substantiate his claims of defamation.
00:10:21.060 And then you can also sign up to my political organizing newsletter kind of list that I have hosted on my old campaign site, WyattClaypool.com.
00:10:30.140 That's also linked in the description below.
00:10:31.980 If you put in your information there, if there's any interesting races going on in the area that you live in, I can reach out and let you know about it.
00:10:39.200 Or if someone else reaches out to me and they ask me a question about a race I haven't looked at yet, I'll research it.
00:10:44.300 And then I'll get back to everyone who lives in that area on maybe what a good candidate to back is or just my thoughts in general on the political atmosphere of that community.
00:10:53.320 So anyways, that should be it for me today, guys.
00:10:56.000 If you're in BC, back the BC Conservatives.
00:10:59.220 Have a good day.