The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Debate Bump! Conservatives lead Liberals 3% in poll!

00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. Well, the results are in and the English leaders debate actually

00:00:06.680 had a significant impact on the polling for the Canadian federal election. Going into it with the

00:00:13.560 Main Street Research tracking poll, the Liberals were leading the Conservatives with undecideds

00:00:18.680 included by three to four points on some days. And now after the debate, the Conservatives are in

00:00:25.160 fact leading by three points. I want to get more into the numbers in just a second, but first I

00:00:30.500 just want to do my obligatory reminder that if you like my channel and my federal election coverage,

00:00:35.940 make sure to drop a like on this video, subscribe to the channel if you are not yet a subscriber.

00:00:40.940 I'm trying to get to 100,000 subscribers by mid-December of this year or else I owe all my

00:00:45.860 friends dinner. And then leave a comment on the topic of the day. Do you know anyone who watched

00:00:50.860 that debate and did they actually change their opinion about who they're going to vote for? I'd

00:00:55.920 love to hear any anecdotal examples of someone who was voting Liberal previously, but you know that

00:01:01.640 after they watched that debate, they were not impressed by Mark Carney. In fact, they are

00:01:05.520 considering voting Conservative now. Well, the other thing I want to highlight right now about this poll

00:01:10.960 and why I have it on the page where it includes undecideds is that undecideds have jumped from about

00:01:17.780 3% before the debate because as time goes on in the election, usually the undecideds keep becoming

00:01:24.000 less and less and less as people start making their choices. Pre-debate, it was at 3%. Post-debate,

00:01:30.660 the undecideds have jumped back up to 6%. That is very bad for the Liberals because all of that has

00:01:39.260 mostly come out of their support. In these charts with the undecideds added in, the Liberals used to be

00:01:46.620 able to get up to sometimes even 43% in these Main Street research polls with undecideds in.

00:01:53.260 Now, they're at 38% and the Conservatives are at 41. Again, the day before this debate,

00:02:01.820 the Liberals were three or four points higher than the Conservatives and now the Conservatives are three

00:02:07.260 points higher than they are. That is a massive shift. The dilemma for many voters in this election,

00:02:13.660 especially those who consume a lot of legacy media, is well, I want to vote for the Liberals

00:02:19.100 to oppose Donald Trump because in some people's minds abstractly you're taking a shot at Donald

00:02:23.580 Trump by giving Mark Carney and the Liberals a vote, but they know, but I'm giving the Liberals

00:02:28.700 a fourth term. That doesn't seem to make much sense. In fact, Mark Carney, just like an hour ago,

00:02:34.860 did his big policy announcement, his platform announcement where he said he wants to add

00:02:39.820 another $126 billion in spending to the government's line items. They're going to add $126 billion in

00:02:48.700 spending over the next four years, yet he's pretending that he's some sort of fiscal hawk,

00:02:53.260 and while investing in the economy, he's also going to not spend so wastefully. He has a different

00:02:59.420 definition of wasteful spending than I do, apparently, because $126 billion in new spending

00:03:05.420 over the next four years would trash the economy because it's not a bunch of random money that just

00:03:10.780 dropped from the sky and it's going to benefit us. You are taking more from taxpayers to spend on things

00:03:15.260 that taxpayers did not want, or at least it is not a high priority to spend money on it. And so, yeah,

00:03:21.980 the Liberals are the exact same, and that is the dilemma playing out in people's minds.

00:03:25.740 They, because of, again, legacy media propaganda, they think Polyev is too much like Trump. He's

00:03:31.100 too much of a fighter. He's too much of an attack dog. He's unpleasant. The debate kind of clarified

00:03:36.460 that he's not unpleasant. You only see legacy media clips of Polyev when he's going after people,

00:03:41.100 and frankly, when he was going after people, he was right to do so. But people can be kind of

00:03:47.100 silly sometimes, and they're like, well, I don't want someone who's negative. Well, if the government's 0.85

00:03:51.180 messing up all the time, what do you want them to do? Stand up and talk about how

00:03:54.300 the air smells so fresh today and the birds sing so beautifully? Or do you want him to

00:03:59.500 actually go after the government for the scandals, for the overspending, for the corruption?

00:04:04.940 You should want the person to do that, but people get turned off by that for whatever reason.

00:04:09.660 But the debate, Polyev, while he was going after Mark Carney hard, he would also spin every question

00:04:15.980 into a positive answer himself on what the Conservatives want to do. So he'd hit Carney,

00:04:21.420 and then he'd spin back and talk about why the Conservatives have a new vision for Canada that's

00:04:26.060 very positive, bright and sunny, which is exactly what he needed to do. Because he took that third

00:04:32.300 of Liberal voters who are soft Liberal supporters, I've been talking about this for weeks, the Liberals'

00:04:37.180 big Achilles heel in this election, is that they are relying on about 36% of people who are not

00:04:43.340 super decided if they're going to show up to vote Liberal to show up and vote for them. And those people,

00:04:48.300 I think, are the main group who last, like a couple nights ago, when they were watching the English

00:04:52.860 debate, they're like, oh goodness, Carney cannot negotiate with Trump. And Polyev is not like

00:04:57.980 Rosemary Barton has been portraying. He's not like what Chantel Hubert says or Andrew Coyne has said.

00:05:04.220 He's actually a fine guy. He seems nice. He seems genuine. Mark Carney seems extremely ungenuine.

00:05:11.100 Not only did he look like a disappointed lizard that entire debate, because everyone kept attacking him

00:05:16.860 for good reason, and he has the personality of beige wallpaper. But he is also extremely

00:05:23.420 inauthentic at that. He is just a squawking script. You can feel the writer's room while Mark Carney is

00:05:30.940 talking as he keeps using the word fundamentally and catalyze. And I think, what other words was he

00:05:37.100 using? He always uses crisis as well. Crisis, trump, fundamentally, and catalyze are Mark Carney's

00:05:43.260 four favorite words in the English language. So yeah, I think that that debate is going to actually

00:05:50.540 have massive impact on election day. In fact, it was great that it happened right before early voting,

00:05:56.380 because it jazzed up conservatives and a lot of liberals. When early voting is going on and you

00:06:01.660 want to be driving out all your votes early to make sure that they are registered and you're not

00:06:05.980 losing people on election day because they were busy, those people are now nervous to show up because

00:06:10.540 Carney didn't look good and Polly looked really good. And in fact, even Jagmeet Singh looked good

00:06:14.700 compared to Carney. Laschet looked very good for Quebec voters compared to Carney if they were in

00:06:19.660 the Montreal donut area, where it's basically just a fight between the liberals and the bloc.

00:06:24.940 So, you know, very good stuff all around for conservatives, considering that you don't just want

00:06:29.980 the conservatives to do well. You want the bloc to do well and you want the NDP to do well to hold

00:06:34.380 down the liberals in certain parts of the country. So right now, I would say that the path to victory

00:06:40.860 for the conservatives looks very clear. Southwestern Ontario, the Ottawa area, there's a couple of seats

00:06:46.540 to pick up. I'm in Ottawa right now. Kanata looks very easy for the conservatives to win. Greg Kung

00:06:51.740 has been doing a fantastic job in Kanata. I was driving around, I actually brought my mom with me just

00:06:57.420 because she likes campaigning too sometimes. We were driving around dropping off, get out the vote

00:07:02.060 literature and talking to people. And we were only counting signs that were directly on our path

00:07:07.980 driving on private lawns, not just random public signs. And we were counting like in the first 30

00:07:15.980 signs, it would be like 23 Kung signs on lawns to like seven Jenna Suds signs. And by the way, Jenna

00:07:23.420 Suds, I will be so happy if she loses to Greg, not just because Greg's a good candidate and a good 1.00

00:07:28.220 conservative, but because Jenna Suds is the dumbest MP in parliament right now. She talks like Kamala 1.00

00:07:34.940 Harris without any of the laughing. She talks like this. And don't you guys know that we actually

00:07:40.700 got inflation down to just 2%. 2% is one plus one, which makes two. She is horrible. She is like, 0.82

00:07:49.660 for some reason, the family and child services minister. And she is, again, another person where

00:07:53.980 every time she speaks like Mark Carney, I am so well aware that a script is in the room somewhere

00:07:59.260 that she is at least studied before speaking. She cannot speak off the cuff. And that is one of

00:08:03.980 the big things for the liberals is because they're such a manufactured party because they don't really

00:08:08.380 have any independent characters in their party. All their people are so reliant on staff and scripts

00:08:16.140 that you can just, it just absolutely kills their ability to win a tough election because the

00:08:21.340 the conservative candidate seems like a genuine guy who can say whatever he wants. And the liberal

00:08:25.580 seems like somebody who has to ask permission to answer yes or no to a question. It's insane.

00:08:31.500 But in Kanata, it's like, again, 22 Kung signs to seven genocide signs. Maybe I'm just in super

00:08:38.540 conservative areas of this writing, but I've been told that back in the last election, although genocide's

00:08:44.140 only won by 2000 votes, it was not like this when it comes to the signs. I've heard the conservatives have

00:08:48.620 put out more than 2,300 signs in Kanata, mostly on private lawns. That is absolutely insane. And

00:08:57.500 make sure you do get a lawn sign if you still don't have one yet. So conservatives doing well

00:09:01.580 in southwestern Ontario, doing well around eastern Ontario and the Ottawa Donuts. The conservatives are

00:09:07.020 actually improving quite a bit in Atlantic Canada. Rural Atlantic Canada ridings are probably going to go

00:09:12.860 pretty consistently conservative and the conservatives don't even need all of them. They just need to

00:09:16.780 basically grab up a third to half of the Atlantic seats to be in business and going for the minority

00:09:22.060 government. In BC, the conservatives are really cleaning up in the lower mainland at the moment,

00:09:27.020 and they're actually going to probably grab up three seats on the island. The island, which I believe

00:09:31.580 didn't have a conservative seat before this. So it's gains everywhere right now. They'll gain UConn.

00:09:37.260 The only thing I do want to say about British Columbia right now to kind of make a slight sidestep on

00:09:42.220 the topic of how the conservatives are doing. One, conservatives are doing really well. Working

00:09:46.140 class neighborhoods, that is the big strength for the conservatives this election. They might even

00:09:49.980 drop seats in Alberta, but it doesn't matter. They might drop a couple metropolitan ridings in like 0.67

00:09:55.340 Calgary and Edmonton, but still, the gains are so good elsewhere, we can kind of weather that storm.

00:10:00.860 In BC though, if you live in the riding of Abbotsford South Langley, I'm going to repeat that,

00:10:06.140 Abbotsford South Langley, please vote for Mike DeYoung, the independent. The conservative candidate

00:10:12.460 Sukhman Gill is not a real conservative at all. In fact, they had to kick out Mike DeYoung from that

00:10:17.820 nomination in order to shove Sukhman Gill through, who was a liberal poll worker as of last year

00:10:22.940 advertised on his LinkedIn page. Don't vote for that guy. Just because he's the conservative brand

00:10:29.820 candidate doesn't mean he's the more conservative guy, and Mike DeYoung can easily win that race.

00:10:34.860 A lot of people are getting behind Mike DeYoung, so don't end up with somebody who wasn't conservative

00:10:39.500 until five seconds ago, and somehow sold 2,000 memberships to win the nomination in Abbotsford

00:10:45.100 South Langley in like a month and a half. Which, if you're wondering, does that happen often? It

00:10:49.660 never happens. That's not real, I'm going to say. I worked for like a year and a half for the

00:10:56.540 Calgary Signal Hill nomination and got kicked out randomly because they wanted to somebody else,

00:11:01.100 and that person still didn't even win because they didn't want me to win too. And it took me about

00:11:06.860 a year and a half to get a thousand supporters. It's very difficult. No one gets 2,000 in a month

00:11:12.380 and a half and then has to kick out Mike DeYoung to still win it at the end of the day because even

00:11:16.540 they didn't have good turnout with the frankly fake members they were signing up. So anyways,

00:11:22.780 that should be mostly it for me today. Sorry that this turned into a bit of a rant, but this is very

00:11:27.980 good. The debate has helped the Conservatives a lot, and I'm actually going to scroll down here

00:11:31.980 just to show you that right now Mark Carney's approval after that debate got really bad. Look

00:11:39.260 at this. Mark Carney now has 34% strongly unfavorable, 14% somewhat unfavorable, and then he has 18%

00:11:46.860 favorable and 39% very favorable. His very unfavorables are way outnumbering his very favorables, and

00:11:54.460 overall he's at like, I believe actually he's at a net negative approval rating, which is

00:11:59.340 terrible for somebody like him, somebody who has had so much artificial positive media push and spin.

00:12:06.220 He is falling down because he's inauthentic. People saw it on the debate stage, and even if the media's

00:12:11.580 not really been reporting on it outside of the few conservative legacy outlets like the Sun and the

00:12:16.140 National Post, even just through the Liberal advertising, you know they're not doing well. I forgot to mention

00:12:21.660 this in my debate recap. You know the Liberals lost the debate. You know Mark Carney lost, because the

00:12:27.580 clips they played of the debate were mostly only five, six, seven seconds, because you can't get very

00:12:33.740 good moments from Carney for very long. They were like seven seconds of him hitting the script really

00:12:39.580 well, and he hit the line he wanted to say well, and then right after that he was getting clobbered again.

00:12:44.060 So the clips that they were posting were like nothing. They posted his entire closing statement,

00:12:48.780 and then they posted a few moments where he was able to deliver the lines he practiced, and that's

00:12:53.660 it. He never had a good moment against someone else. He never made a good call out, because he's a

00:12:57.740 weakling and cannot deal with any foreign leader, let alone Donald Trump. So anyways, that should be 0.91

00:13:03.100 it for me today guys. Remember to like the video, subscribe to the channel, leave a comment,

00:13:07.420 do all that great stuff, and I'll see you all later.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - April 19, 2025

Debate Bump! Conservatives lead Liberals 3% in poll!

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