Doug Ford's early Ontario election could backfire on PCs! (Polling analysis)
Episode Stats
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Summary
In this episode, I talk about why Doug Ford is in serious trouble in the upcoming Ontario election, and why he deserves to be worried about his chances of winning the next election. I also talk about how Jagmeet Singh is now the favourite to win the Ontario election and why we should vote for him.
Transcript
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I'm about to show you the Ontario provincial polling projections and then I'm going to say
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something that you might think is quite absurd. But here are what the current numbers in Ontario
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look like according to 338 Canada when it comes to popular vote and seat projections. 338 Canada
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is projecting that on average between all the polls the Ontario PC party would get 42%,
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Liberals 26 with their weird target looking logo. The NDP would get 21, the Greens would get 7,
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and of course there would be other parties also getting votes. They show the PCs would get 88
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seats, the NDP 20, Liberals 13, Greens 2, and then of course we have Bobbi Ann Brady being able to hold
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on to her one independent seat around the area that actually Leslie Lewis is the federal MP. It's
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that kind of same Haldemar Norfolk area. But I'm about to say Doug Ford is actually in serious
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trouble in this provincial election and he deserves to be in serious trouble. The man is holding a
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provincial election a year and a half early for basically no reason because he knows as soon as
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pure poly becomes the Prime Minister of Canada, the standards for what a Conservative should be
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are going to go up and he is going to look like a complete hack. In fact, Doug Ford, in calling this
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election early, has just given the Bloc Québécois and the NDP especially a great excuse not to have
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a federal election until October. Jagmeet Singh was on the hook to try and call an early election
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because he had promised to as soon as Parliament was back in session and he's been given a little bit
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of reprieve because of the Liberal leadership race. Maybe he can give Carney or Freeland or whoever
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becomes the new Liberal leader a couple of weeks to get their foothold or, you know, get their bearings
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and then he can call an election. But now that Doug Ford is calling an Ontario election, guess what
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Jagmeet Singh can say? Oh, there's voter fatigue. You know, 40% of the population of Canada just went
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through an election like a week ago. So we got to wait a few more months. Our staffers in Ontario are
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exhausted because they were helping on Merit Stiles' NDP campaign. That's what Jagmeet Singh can now do
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because Doug Ford wants an election. Why? Because Trump or something. Literally for no reason. The real
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reason is because he's not a conservative and he wants his election in before Polyev is in so people
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don't compare him to a man who's actually cutting taxes and spending and standing up against DEI and
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gender theory because Doug Ford stands up against none of that. He has extremely high taxes, high
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regulations. He runs a subsidy economy where he subsidizes the same projects that the federal
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Liberals do. They literally funded the cricket factory alongside the Trudeau Liberals. They celebrated
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it opening. But even though the projections currently look like this and Ford looks unbeatable,
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the problem is that by having this early election, Doug Ford is suffering from the same problem that
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Justin Trudeau did in 2021. You would be considered insane to think at the start of the 2021 federal
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election that there was a chance for Justin Trudeau to lose. He was polling like eight, ten points above
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Aaron O'Toole. And Aaron O'Toole was a terrible conservative leader. The problem is people resent you
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holding an election that you didn't need to hold. Trudeau had only been in like two years into his
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second term and then wanted another election because he thought that COVID was boosting his
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popularity enough to win back his majority. He won a few more seats back, but basically nothing changed.
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And this is the current Main Street poll. I criticize their federal polling in here because I think that
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mixing federal polling into provincial polling doesn't really work. It throws off the results a bit.
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But this is what their federal poll showed. And this is also what liaison strategies and other
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ones are showing. Yes, campaign research is showing that the PCs could win 100 seats. They could win
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even more seats than 338 is projecting. The problem is, is campaign research is run by Nick Kuvalis,
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who is the personal pollster for Doug Ford. Of course, he is going to put out numbers that try and
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basically intimidate all other opponents from even competing. And just don't spend your money on this
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election because we're going to win anyways. So I wouldn't trust Nick Kuvalis as far as I can throw
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him. But the current projections with undecideds added in show the four PCs getting 31% of the vote,
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24% going a liberal, 20% going for the NDP, you have 5% for the greens, they're probably only going to be
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able to hold on to the two seats they currently have. And then other is 6%, which would include the
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new blue party. Guys, if you live in Ontario, consider voting for the new blue party. It's an actual
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conservative party. And it's not like a purity testing party where Ford didn't do everything
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perfectly. Ergo, you should vote for us. They basically are saying Ford didn't achieve anything
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he promised in the 2018 platform. Ergo, we are starting to try and achieve what the PC party
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originally promised. So check out the new blue party website. I linked it in the description below
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and pinned it to the top, the comments. Consider running for them if they don't have a candidate
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in your area. Great election experience. But this poll does show that a lot of the undecideds
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might be leaning PC, which is good for the Ontario PCs. They go from having 31% support up to having
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34%. The liberals gain a little bit. Yes, the Ontario PCs might even be able to win a majority
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with a lot of vote splitting between the NDP and the liberals. I'm going to go down just to
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removing all undecideds. The last one was with leaning voters added in where would people who
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if you twisted their arm, who would they vote for? They would move over to the conservatives.
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The conservatives only have a 7% lead in this poll. That is not very good because all this is where I
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don't believe campaign research at all when they show the PCs having a 20-point lead. This is Doug
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Ford. This is not Pierre Polyev in Ontario. Pierre Polyev is popular. He has a net approval rate. He has
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a net high, like a net positive approval rating across Canada. Maybe it's net negative in Ontario by a bit
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because Toronto is there and you get a lot of metropolitan liberals who hate Polyev and they will
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always say that they hate his guts, which hurts his ability to be popular. It's not like Alberta.
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But Doug Ford has a terrible approval rating in Ontario because he's not very conservative. So
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the conservative base doesn't know what to think about him. The federal conservatives really don't
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like him because he's been propping up the liberals. Again, Christia Freeland calls Doug Ford her
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therapist and she refers to Christia Freeland as one of his good friends because he's liberal. He likes
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retail politics. The way that Doug Ford does politics is he takes taxpayer money and he gives it to
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specific industries and invest in specific regions where he wants to win votes. Northern Ontario
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couldn't care less because he assumes he's just going to win those ridings. He couldn't care less
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about a lot of regions where he assumes that people won't stop voting PC and then he just dumps money
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into swing ridings where it would be tight with the NDP or the liberals who try and win people over
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because of, hey, if we're not in, you might not get those car subsidies. You might not get those EV
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subsidies, even though they're effectively fake jobs. They're private sector, but they're basically
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public sector because the only reason those car companies, those EV factories are even there
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is because both Ford and the federal liberals are funding them to be there. It's completely ridiculous.
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So, and this is not even just the worst of it. Yes, Ford is only at 36%. The liberals are at 29.
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Again, I don't trust campaign research showing that the liberals are doing as bad as they were with
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Stephen Del Duca. Stephen Del Duca was a horrible leader, like one of the worst party leaders I've
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ever seen in Canadian politics from my time following it. And I'm thinking even before I was like,
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you know, born, I look back at elections back then. He's like Michael Ignatieff in terms of bad
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for the Liberal Party of Ontario. Bonnie Crombie actually has a brand. Bad politician, but she's
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bad in the same ways Doug Ford is bad. So how do you really even grade them? Plus, she hasn't been
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the premier becoming unpopular since 2018, the way Doug Ford has. Legitimately, this is why I tell
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people to vote New Blue. I cannot tell you a major difference in policy between Bonnie Crombie and Doug
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Ford. It's impossible. Both of them are big government politicians. Both of them are in favor
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of DEI. The Ford government just rolled out new DEI initiatives. They have not reformed the crazy
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curriculum, the sex ed curriculum in Ontario that they promised to do in 2018, because that was
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controversial. Both parties are like that. Both of them are supposedly against the carbon tax, but are
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big fans of the industrial carbon tax. It's so weird looking at Ontario politics right now.
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Um, here's the current approval ratings for Doug Ford, according to Main Street Research. I want
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to move on to liaison strategies a bit later, but 18% are strongly in favor of them. That's not too bad.
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25% somewhat, but then like the deeply unfavorable is 31% and somewhat unfavorable is 17%. Maybe this is
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still a winning coalition since he has like technically above like 40% in terms of approval. But the problem
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is, is that there's a lot of people in the somewhat favorable who are not going to show up because
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the election was held early and they didn't want this election. Bonnie Crombie, in fact, has like
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generally better approval ratings. It's not great, but people don't hate her in the same way. Here is
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your opposition, because your opposition wants you to get out of office where your own voters are like,
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we already have the majority. Why are we having an early election? This doesn't make sense at all.
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But yes, and you can even tell that there's a lot of undecided people with this. But uh, yeah,
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I guess some people in his base will say that this is a good thing or whatever, but I don't really
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see this as being something that's going to help Ford out. You're going to get a lot of ticked off
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people because the only, here's the thing, I'm going to show you the poll results, the detailed results
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here. These are the breakdown of people who think it's a good idea. Obviously now that Ford has made
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it clear he's holding the new election, there are going to be PC voters saying, oh, of course that's
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a good idea. That's over, like that's 60% or so, but somewhat opposed is 12.6, strongly opposed is 10.6
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in his base. And then the other parties, the strongly support to strongly oppose are all still anti-Ford
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voters. So if anything, Ford has just taken a third of his own party and ticks them off hard.
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People who didn't want an election at all, who probably already only somewhat like him. This
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is not very good at all. This is bad politics. It's what you, it's, it's what people used to do in
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like the nineties when you could kind of get away with it. Jean Chrétien would always hold early
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elections when it advantaged him. But I think again, Justin Trudeau in 2021 has proven that this doesn't
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really work anymore. This is what the overall polling looks like. You can tell it's kind of all
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over the place at the moment. I'm so I'm bringing it up on screen from 338. So it really is, do you
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trust liaison strategies in Main Street or do you trust Leger and campaign research? Leger, that's a
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good result for them. 24%. Generally, Leger is pretty good. Campaign research, I wouldn't trust more than,
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like farther than I can throw Nick Cuvales, which is not very far. Yeah, it's just not very good
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looking poll results. I'm going to bring up specifically what liaison strategies had
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because the thing is that they show a consistent downgrade. It's not like liaison has been trying
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to mess with Ford and try and show that he's deeply unpopular and they've been doing this for a long
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time. They had him back in January of 2025, early January at 41%. January 8th and 9th, rumors of an
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early election start swirling. The liberals tick up a bit, conservatives tick down a bit. January 15th
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to the 16th, liberals tick up a bit, conservatives tick up a bit. But then when it becomes clear a new
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election is coming, jumps down from 41 to 39 and the liberals are at 33. Merit Stiles and the NDP are
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absolutely crashing and burning right now because nobody cares who Merit Stiles is. She is basically
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discount Andrea Horvath and even Andrea Horvath by the end of her tenure as NDP Ontario leader
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was a discount version of Andrea Horvath. But yeah, I don't, I could see this being an election
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where Ford may just keep stomping around Ontario like he's Godzilla and win 100 seats despite the
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fact that a lot of people don't like him. Also, this could be an election where people are like,
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yeah, this was a little bit too cute by half, Doug. We're not voting for you. We're not showing up.
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It's a low turnout election where he just loses a bunch of GTA seats. He loses any seats he has
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in like the Hamilton, Mississauga area because voters were just ticked off, especially like
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ethnic community voters are just going to be ticked off that Doug Ford is calling in our early
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election because elections can be pretty exhausting in those areas where community leaders are like
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trying to force you out to vote. I could see this just like backfiring on the Ford government
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really, really hard. And frankly, they deserve it. They're not conservative at all. And now they're
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taking the goodwill they do not have to have a year and a half early election, which is going to
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be delaying the federal election because Singh can say, oh, all my staffers who are helping Merritt
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Stiles are exhausted. Ontario voters have voter fatigue right now. We need to wait a while.
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Annoying. Anyways, so that's it for me today, guys. If you're in Ontario, guys, again, check out the
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New Blue Party. It's a very sensible conservative party. If you're a federal conservative,
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basically New Blue Party is like the federal conservatives in Ontario. The federal conservatives
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hate Doug Ford for a reason. He screwed them over in 2021. He has not been helpful since then. In fact,
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he keeps bear hugging Justin Trudeau and congratulating the liberals on how great they've
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been for Ontario workers because they've been subsidizing all these stupid fake jobs.
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They're awful. Check out the New Blue Party. Consider running for them if they don't have a
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candidate in their area. I'm going to try and fly out in Ontario to help the New Blue Party.
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Really great people. They have EDAs in every single writing. Do not vote for the Ontario Party.
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It's a fake party that I know from my experience is basically funded by PC insiders to confuse the
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third party scene because Ontario Party didn't even post anything on social media since they since
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like I think it was like late 2023. Last time they posted anything on social media was like September
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of 2023. And then suddenly there's new election. They've popped back up to say, hey, we're the
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anti-Ford people. Even though in 22, in the 22 provincial election, they literally never criticized
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Doug Ford once. They never did because all they were meant to do was hold down the New Blue Party
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and prevent them from getting support. I know this because I was involved in negotiations back in late
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2021 between Ontario Party and New Blue. Ontario Party, despite the fact they keep putting up rhetoric
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about how New Blue and them should combine, did not want to combine. They wanted a party where then
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their leader, Derek Sloan, got to be the leader of the combined party. It was ridiculous. They were
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disorganized. They at some point after the 22 election got deregistered because they didn't even do
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their financial filings in time and then took them like another year to finally do it because they're not
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real at all. They don't have EDAs anywhere. They might have like five, but it's not a party that
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has a constitution. It's not a party with voting rights. It's like the PPC that is just whatever
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the leader wants to. Ontario Party actually, or the New Blue Party of Ontario, actually has policy
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conventions. They actually pass policies. I've heard people go to them and they say, yeah, some of the
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stuff I won passed, some of it didn't, but it was completely fair and I got people's arguments.
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It's an actual party like the Reform Party was back in 1988. They, in fact, did better than the Reform
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Party did in their first election, despite the fact they had to also compete against the Populist
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Party of Ontario, the Libertarians, and Ontario Party. They got 2.7% of the vote. Reform only got like
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2.1% in its first election in 1988. Anyways, so that should be it for me today, guys. Again, subscribe to
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the channel, like this video, do all that great stuff, leave a comment, and I'll see you guys later.