Wyatt Claypool back with a political and polling update for the province of British Columbia in the wake of Carrie Lynn Finley being elected as the new BC Conservative Party leader, and a new Angus Reid Premier Approval Rating survey that shows that Premier David Eby and the BC NDP are in serious trouble.
00:00:00.040Ahoy everyone, Wyatt Claypool here, back with both a political and polling update for the
00:00:05.700province of British Columbia in the aftermath of Carrie Lynn Finley being elected as the new
00:00:11.120BC Conservative Party leader and a new Angus Reid Premier Approval Rating survey that shows that
00:00:17.600Premier David Eby and the BC NDP are in really deep trouble. So in this video, we're going to
00:00:24.260start off with Premier David Eby's approval rating, then we're going to be moving into
00:00:28.960provincial-wide polls, and then I want to finish off talking about Carrie Lynn Finley as the BC
00:00:34.660conservative leader and what advice that I would give to her. Of course, full disclosure, I, Wyatt
00:00:40.280Claypool, work for Dallas Brody and the 1BC party, but I will try and keep this analysis as objective
00:00:46.360as possible from my conservative 1BC perspective. But before we get into the numbers, I just want
00:00:52.640to remind you guys, if you like the show, make sure to leave a like on this video, subscribe if
00:00:57.460you are not yet a subscriber, consider hitting the join button below the video and becoming a
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00:01:06.500Kelowna area, consider signing up at the registration link pinned at the top of the
00:01:10.960comments to come out and see me, Dallas Brody, and the 1BC team, because we are in Kelowna on
00:01:16.740June 14th. Make sure to register and show up. I believe we are releasing where the location is
00:01:22.440very soon. If not, it's already on social media. Anyways, without further ado, let's get into
00:01:29.180the current approval rating of Premier David Eby. Actually, we're going to back up a bit,
00:01:35.260and we're going to start off with what his approval rating used to be in the previous
00:01:40.420Angus Reid survey. So Angus Reid, I like them generally as a pollster, although they don't do
00:01:45.440the best BC polls because they don't include all the parties. But I do like that they do these mass
00:01:51.380surveys of what people think about the different premiers and they just do it for every single
00:01:56.900province all at once and you get a very consistent snapshot of what people think. Now David Eby
00:02:03.480already had a pretty bad approval rating. He was already well below being like net liked. Last
00:02:16.800survey put him at literally only 37 percent and i'm about to show you an approval rating lower than
00:02:29.28037 percent 37 percent approval you should probably just not run for re-election already but now just
00:02:37.360a few weeks later, we now have David Eby at an approval rating of 31%. Now, the NDP currently
00:02:48.740have a caucus retreat going on right now in British Columbia. I'm wondering if this is going
00:02:55.740to be brought up. Now, David Eby is somehow not the most unpopular premier in the country right
00:03:03.400now. That is Doug Ford, whose approval rating is only 21%. But to give you a general range,
00:03:09.980Danielle Smith, despite the repeated media attacks against her as a separatist who's putting forward
00:03:15.200a referendum question because she secretly supports separation, she is at 39%. And I
00:03:21.340believe she's probably going to recover back into the 40s where she usually is. Scott Moe in
00:03:26.380Saskatchewan at 50%. We have Susan Holt in New Brunswick actually having the biggest fall,
00:03:32.580but she's still at 41% approval, having fallen 13 points. Wab Kanu in Manitoba, I don't know why
00:03:39.340he's popular, but his popularity is currently 62% approval. David Eby, 31%. That means in the last
00:03:50.440election, the NDP captured 47% of the vote. And in theory, if there was an election now, 16% of
00:03:57.960people who voted NDP last time don't like David Eby. So yeah, I'm wondering if the guy even
00:04:04.820survives the year. If he doesn't, we're going to be having a new NDP leadership race that I think
00:04:10.860the NDP is going to have to decide if it's going to moderate towards the middle and get rid of the
00:04:15.040reconciliation politics, or if it's going to get even more intense and they're going to try and
00:04:20.280cut off the Green Party, who's actually been eating into the NDP, because the Greens have
00:04:25.880been moving further and further left. And every time the NDP kind of motions that it might
00:04:31.260moderate, Emily Lohan and the NDP usually carve off another one or two percent from them depending
00:04:37.780on the poll that you look at. But now I want to take you guys into a provincial snapshot of how
00:04:43.700things currently are. And someone's going to accuse me of cherry picking polls because the
00:04:48.880polls I use 1BC is doing well in. The reason I'm about to use the polls I'm going to use
00:04:54.300is because they're realistic. They have good sample sizes, and the results are realistic.
00:05:00.400We have ResearchCo who just put out a poll recently, and it shows the conservatives are
00:05:04.960up by a few points on the NDP, and conservatives are celebrating this. That poll has 1BC at only
00:05:11.9602%, and CenterBC at 2%, a party that nobody has ever heard of before. They also have the Greens
00:05:19.200at like 8 or whatever, which actually seems pretty low for the Greens. But ResearchCo is
00:05:23.920just a bad pollster. And you could say, well, you just don't like that they only have 1BC at 2%.
00:05:28.440They've only ever had 1BC at 1%, meaning that we've technically doubled our support in their
00:05:34.460survey, but we were only at 1% in the dog days of John Rustad's leadership when 1BC was taking
00:05:41.380off massively. I believe at the start of the year where other pollsters were putting us at 6, 8,
00:05:46.86010, 11%, they still had us at 1%, meaning that I think Mario Canseco and Research Co.
00:05:52.880are just a bad pollster. They're just not very good at sampling people, and they tend to have
00:05:58.060very liberal samples overall. Yes, the conservatives are leading only by a little bit,
00:06:02.840and that's because the NDP is just extremely unpopular with the sample that the research
00:06:08.260co-people use, but they're usually one of the last pollsters to ever show that the NDP is down.
00:06:13.660Again, a lot of people are looking at the Leger poll that shows the conservatives are up. Again,
00:06:17.980they don't include both 1BC and they don't include center BC. And again, it's just the numbers don't
00:06:25.380even make sense. Their last poll had the NDP leading by six, and now it's the Conservatives
00:06:30.680leading by four, but somehow the Greens went from 13 points to eight points. The swings in those
00:06:36.620polls don't make any sense. It's just the facts of life. Anyways, so I'm going to be using the last
00:06:43.640Main Street poll that was conducted before the end of the leadership race that actually
00:06:48.360polled how people would react if different people became the BC Conservative Party leader.
00:06:53.480And since Carrie Lynn Finley is now the CPBC leader, I can use their Carrie Lynn Finley polling.
00:07:00.200They showed with decided voters that Carrie Lynn Finley's BC Conservative Party would be polling
00:07:06.440at 42 percent the ndp with david eby still as the premier of course would be at about 39.9 let's
00:07:16.440just round it out and say 40 percent the greens would be at 6.5 of the vote that might be a little
00:07:25.960bit of an under poll for them uh but you know that's just what happens uh maybe when like ndp
00:07:32.200start consolidating behind or green start consolidating behind the ndp just trying to
00:07:36.600stop the bc conservatives again that might have just been a bit of a sampling error and then 1bc
00:07:42.520in this poll was at 11.1 we'll just round down to being 11 of the vote again this is main street
00:07:51.480research we did not pay them this is not them trying to survey in favor of us in fact the guy
00:07:57.400who runs it kudo baggy tends to be a fairly partisan federal liberal and so this was of
00:08:03.800course a two-point lead for the conservatives so we have 42 here 40 six and a half and 11
00:08:15.400across the board and then i want to get into another pollster that i like this one we actually
00:08:21.720did commission this poll but chris the great canadian bagel pretty much all he does with
00:08:26.360with the money is just jams it into getting a bigger sample size. He actually has some of the
00:08:30.460more realistic national polls, just to give you some backup. When people are saying they trust
00:08:35.360Leger in British Columbia, it's like, okay, you're a conservative saying you trust Leger.
00:08:40.800At the same time, Leger is saying that the federal liberals have a 28% lead in British Columbia.
00:08:49.020Leger is showing Alberta sometimes being won by the liberals, or at the very least,
00:08:53.340all of Calgary would be read based on their current numbers. Leger polls give these insane
00:08:58.400liberal leads because it just has a very liberal sample it takes from. It will often show the
00:09:03.680liberals leading by 16 points federally. I'm sorry, I'm not going to trust that pollster when it comes
00:09:09.980to BC provincially. Main Street Research has also put out some very liberal-leaning polling results
00:09:16.280federally, but usually if you wait for the next couple of results, it becomes more normal again.
00:09:21.180They have an outlier here and there, but Leger is all outliers. Great Canadian Bagel has the
00:09:27.660current Liberal lead at about 7-8 points. That is very realistic right now. Yes, the Liberals are
00:09:34.080ahead, but it's not one of these crazy, like, election-smashing leads, like, 12 or 15 points,
00:09:40.340where Carney would win 230 seats. Right now, Bagel would show him winning, like, 187 seats,
00:09:46.140190 seats. That doesn't mean that Carney could actually cash in and get that majority if he
00:09:51.480called a snap election right now. It's kind of one of those sort of catch-22s in politics.
00:09:56.540You would want to call a snap election in order to cash in with your polling lead,
00:10:00.420but to call a snap election would basically completely eliminate your polling lead because
00:10:04.400you'd take people off. But this is the last results that we had from the great Canadian
00:10:09.680Bagel, who actually puts us a bit below the Conservatives. Right now, he has the Conservatives
00:10:16.120or he has 1BC a little bit below what Main Street had us at. The Conservatives in Bagel's poll
00:10:21.860is a lot like Main Street. He has the Conservatives at 41% of the vote. He has the NDP falling down
00:10:32.620to just 36% of the vote, which would make sense because I think the NDP probably should be
00:10:38.920suffering a lot more with their premier only with a 31 approval rating the greens are doing better
00:10:46.740in bagels poll i would say more realistically so at eight and a half percent of the vote here
00:10:51.940i think it's like 8.6 but we'll just say eight and a half because it's easier i'm not sure why
00:10:56.200i wrote that in green when i didn't want to do that and then we have one bc in the great canadian
00:11:01.720Bagels poll at 10.9, so we'll just show 11 again. When two different pollsters are showing 11.1
00:11:10.360and 10.9, I tend to believe that pollster. In fact, what we had with the Great Canadian Bagels
00:11:17.320poll is since his last one he did for us a couple months ago, we've gone up by a point, 1.2.
00:11:23.620Conservatives have gone up by 0.3 or so. The NDP has dropped by a couple points, and the Greens
00:11:29.380have basically kind of risen, or I think they lowered by like 1% or so, which makes sense.
00:11:35.900Left-wing politics in BC are becoming less popular right now. So we have 41% there for
00:11:41.980the conservatives. We have 36% there for the NDP, 8.5% for the Greens. Let's make that uniform
00:11:50.640put in black. And we have 11% again for 1BC. Again, someone could accuse me of saying,
00:11:58.420well, Wyatt, you did say you work for Dallas Brody in 1 BC. Of course, you're going to cite
00:12:02.140a poll, putting them at 10 or 11. I'm citing two polls that the conservatives usually like to cite.
00:12:08.440They like a lot of conservatives online like Bagel. He had a 506 person sample, which is quite good
00:12:14.400because that's only decided voters. He pulled 506 decided people. Overall, it was like 600 people
00:12:20.660he pulled. Main Street Research pulled like 1,000 or so, 1,200. They agree with each other,
00:12:27.140So I'm going to accept it. Whereas with Leger and Research Co, they're not pulling all the parties or when they do pull us, it's so staggeringly low, it doesn't make any sense. Really, 2% right now, we were at only 1% when the Conservative Party was in an absolute garbage fire situation. Doesn't really make sense to me.
00:12:46.820And so right now, I would say that this is fairly realistic to where things are currently at. Conservatives either have a slight lead over the NDP in Main Street research or a wider lead in the Great Canadian Bagels poll. Greens are climbing up a little bit on the NDP. I think that they are actually going to start extending into the double digits eventually as the NDP has more and more leadership problems.
00:13:11.700and 1BC might go down. I would say that Carrie Lynn Finley, being the new conservative leader,
00:13:17.080and this is us getting into the Carrie Lynn Finley issue, will she hurt 1BC's polling? Probably,0.99
00:13:22.540because you're going to get some people saying, well, she's a very conservative person, or at
00:13:26.640least perceived to be quite a conservative person. Let's give her a chance. Now, I'm not trying to
00:13:32.020naysay Carrie Lynn Finley here, because I think she has a lot of virtues. I also think there are
00:13:36.800certain things where I'm going to wait and see and see what she does. She is somebody who, I would
00:13:43.020say, projects a tough exterior. And that is a good thing for the Conservative Party. A big problem
00:13:49.260with John Rustad and then Trevor Halford is that they were kind of easily pushed around by liberals
00:13:55.500in their caucus. Or in the case of Trevor Halford, he is a liberal in the caucus. And so what
00:14:01.240Carrie Lynn Finley really needs to do is resist liberals trying to push her back into the box1.00
00:14:08.160they had John Rustad in. Don't go too hard on the reconciliation issue. Don't run on a big tax cut.
00:14:15.120Don't run on cutting spending. Just basically run the free enterprise BC liberal playbook
00:14:20.980where we promise that we'll be a little bit more pro-business, kind of like the Doug Ford way of
00:14:26.020doing things, where he's not that much different from a liberal other than the things that he
00:14:30.660chooses to subsidize are, I guess, more conservative-coded than what a Kathleen Wynne
00:14:35.960would be subsidizing if she were still in government. That's really the only difference
00:14:40.060you get out there. So Carrie Lynn Finley, I think, can do really well in debates. I think she can be1.00
00:14:45.420tough. I think she can be quite conservative. Now, at different times in her career, like when she
00:14:50.060was first elected in 2011, she was very progressive. She, in fact, voted for Bill C-276, I believe,
00:14:56.860or 273, which was an NDP private members bill that was criminalizing not using preferred pronouns.
00:15:03.560It was the thing that later Jordan Peterson protested against when Trudeau introduced
00:15:08.840Bill C-16. Bill C-273 was actually the precursor to it. It passed all the way through the House of
00:15:16.160Commons with the help of Carrie Lynn Finley and 17 conservatives when Harper was still premier.
00:15:21.060It went to the Senate. The Senate sent it back for some amendments. The amendments didn't happen
00:15:25.720before the 2015 election, so it died on the order paper, and Trudeau effectively revived it in the
00:15:31.540form of Bill C-16 with the Senate amendments already added to it. So Carrie Lynn Finley has
00:15:37.440been a progressive. At the same time, she would be what I would consider a very pro-property
00:15:44.220rights conservative back in the 90s when she fought with the Musqueam, and now she generally
00:15:49.360talks like a pro-property rights anti-reconciliation industry conservative. But what you hope is,
00:15:55.620is that she's been more conservative. She's been less conservative. She's very much been a party
00:16:00.380establishment stalwart at times as the whip for Pierre Polyev. A lot of election shenanigans that
00:16:07.080went on in nominations in British Columbia over the last couple of years. I never heard her saying
00:16:11.920anything about it. That doesn't mean that you should write her off because of that. That just
00:16:16.280says that what we need her to do is very much rise to the occasion, kind of slough off normal1.00
00:16:23.040establishment politics and really get to work serving the grassroots. Don't let the millibars1.00
00:16:28.960and the alia war buses and the Brennan days, all the hacky liberals in the BC conservative party
00:16:34.160dictate to you and threaten you. If anything, if they threaten you and say that they're going to
00:16:39.140go start the BC liberal party again, which is currently getting started up, just say go for it.
00:16:43.820I don't care. That's completely fine with me because you'll probably want to get rid of these
00:16:48.920people later anyways, because if you have too many liberals in caucus, if you get a majority
00:16:54.100government, let's say of two or three seats, the Carolyn Finley conservatives win 49 seats.
00:17:00.940Well, if five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10 of them are massive liberals, like I estimate there
00:17:08.140are, I think there's around 10 people in that caucus who really aren't that conservative at
00:17:11.940all. Maybe they'll vote for conservative things that the party's whipping them, but they don't
00:17:15.920have conservative instincts. If you're in a government with only a couple seat majority,
00:17:20.540what says that these people aren't going to block you from making the changes that you want to make
00:17:24.420or force you to water them all down? So my advice to Carrie Lynn Finley is put your foot on the gas.
00:17:30.320If you start stalling out, if you start becoming cowed by your own liberals in caucus,
00:17:36.540what are you doing here? Like basically leave politics if you're not going to start just
00:17:41.660ripping up the turf and making changes like Dallas Brody. One woman as the MLA of her own party1.00
00:17:47.900is at 11% of the vote, both in our internal polls, as well as Main Street Research's polls. In fact,
00:17:54.400they have us even a little bit higher than what we say that we're at. Maybe bring some of that
00:17:59.760energy into the party because the BC Liberals, if they try and restart, they'll maybe hit 10,
00:18:04.80012, 13% in an election. That's just because of the name and brand recognition, but that's not
00:18:10.720what people want right now. In fact, you should be trying to cultivate that 1BC energy because
00:18:16.000the conservatives should be far higher than this. And someone could say, well, it's because 1BC
00:18:19.460splitting their vote. Vote splitting is a myth, guys. There is no such person who exists who
00:18:25.580don't understand that this is the bigger party. Everyone understands the BC conservatives are
00:18:30.000the more established, bigger party. They're voting 1BC for a reason. And it's things like
00:18:35.140Dallas going to Kamloops and denouncing the Kamloops 215 grave hoax. They want a leader who
00:18:41.600is willing to say the things that you previously could not say, not just to be edgy, not just to
00:18:46.340be controversial, but because they need to be said because things like the Kamloops hoax have been
00:18:50.640ripping apart the province. They don't want you to just repeal DRIPA and declare victory. They want
00:18:55.400you to defund all the reconciliation industry crap. They want a big tax cut. They want you to0.98
00:19:02.000get gender ideology out of schools completely. They want you to defund all of the pride and DEI0.99
00:19:07.860stuff in the province. They just want big change. And if Carrie Lynn Finley starts just tinkering
00:19:13.680too much and not changing, well, then why did we replace John Rustad with her? So this is more so0.89
00:19:19.300the scenario I'm painting. If she starts moderating and becoming more like John Rustad, then what's
00:19:25.020the point? If she's still letting the liberals control the caucus, what's the point? If she goes
00:19:29.960hard, then there is maybe a reason for there to be consolidation around the Conservative Party,0.96
00:19:35.840but she'll have to risk letting the Liberals say, screw you, I'm leaving. And guess what? She'd be0.92
00:19:41.180so much better for it, but she has to be able to rip off the band-aid and understand that this
00:19:47.280party is not functional in the current state it's in, and singing kumbaya and talking about how
00:19:52.180unified we are doesn't change anything. Anyways, with all that being said, thank you guys for
00:19:58.900watching this video. Hopefully you appreciated the update on BC politics. If you again live in
00:20:04.640the Kamloops, not Kamloops, the Kelowna, Okanagan area, sign up for our Kelowna event on June 14th.
00:20:10.880Hopefully I didn't say Kamloops at the beginning of this video because I keep saying them
00:20:13.940interchangeably, but forgive me. I'm bad at this sometimes, guys. I wish Carrie Lynn Finley luck
00:20:19.820in everything that she does. I'm not here to naysay her. I will not jump down her throat every
00:20:24.320time I perceive that she's made a mistake. That's not my role here, and that's not the role of 1BC0.99
00:20:28.600either to be the police officer of the BC Conservative Party. But of course, if you like
00:20:34.620the work that we do at 1BC, consider going to the donation link also linked at the pin to the top
00:20:40.380of the comments below. Make sure you guys like this video, subscribe, and consider becoming a
00:20:44.760member of the National Telegraph YouTube channel to make this whole thing more sustainable for me.
00:20:49.860With all that being said, thank you guys for watching, and I'll see you all later.