The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Eby NDP Collapsing in BC - The Political Right Rises in New Polls!

00:00:00.040 Ahoy everyone, Wyatt Claypool here, back with both a political and polling update for the

00:00:05.700 province of British Columbia in the aftermath of Carrie Lynn Finley being elected as the new

00:00:11.120 BC Conservative Party leader and a new Angus Reid Premier Approval Rating survey that shows that

00:00:17.600 Premier David Eby and the BC NDP are in really deep trouble. So in this video, we're going to

00:00:24.260 start off with Premier David Eby's approval rating, then we're going to be moving into

00:00:28.960 provincial-wide polls, and then I want to finish off talking about Carrie Lynn Finley as the BC

00:00:34.660 conservative leader and what advice that I would give to her. Of course, full disclosure, I, Wyatt

00:00:40.280 Claypool, work for Dallas Brody and the 1BC party, but I will try and keep this analysis as objective

00:00:46.360 as possible from my conservative 1BC perspective. But before we get into the numbers, I just want

00:00:52.640 to remind you guys, if you like the show, make sure to leave a like on this video, subscribe if

00:00:57.460 you are not yet a subscriber, consider hitting the join button below the video and becoming a

00:01:02.080 monthly contributing member to help make the channel more sustainable. And if you're in the

00:01:06.500 Kelowna area, consider signing up at the registration link pinned at the top of the

00:01:10.960 comments to come out and see me, Dallas Brody, and the 1BC team, because we are in Kelowna on

00:01:16.740 June 14th. Make sure to register and show up. I believe we are releasing where the location is

00:01:22.440 very soon. If not, it's already on social media. Anyways, without further ado, let's get into

00:01:29.180 the current approval rating of Premier David Eby. Actually, we're going to back up a bit,

00:01:35.260 and we're going to start off with what his approval rating used to be in the previous

00:01:40.420 Angus Reid survey. So Angus Reid, I like them generally as a pollster, although they don't do

00:01:45.440 the best BC polls because they don't include all the parties. But I do like that they do these mass

00:01:51.380 surveys of what people think about the different premiers and they just do it for every single

00:01:56.900 province all at once and you get a very consistent snapshot of what people think. Now David Eby

00:02:03.480 already had a pretty bad approval rating. He was already well below being like net liked. Last

00:02:16.800 survey put him at literally only 37 percent and i'm about to show you an approval rating lower than

00:02:29.280 37 percent 37 percent approval you should probably just not run for re-election already but now just

00:02:37.360 a few weeks later, we now have David Eby at an approval rating of 31%. Now, the NDP currently

00:02:48.740 have a caucus retreat going on right now in British Columbia. I'm wondering if this is going

00:02:55.740 to be brought up. Now, David Eby is somehow not the most unpopular premier in the country right

00:03:03.400 now. That is Doug Ford, whose approval rating is only 21%. But to give you a general range,

00:03:09.980 Danielle Smith, despite the repeated media attacks against her as a separatist who's putting forward

00:03:15.200 a referendum question because she secretly supports separation, she is at 39%. And I

00:03:21.340 believe she's probably going to recover back into the 40s where she usually is. Scott Moe in

00:03:26.380 Saskatchewan at 50%. We have Susan Holt in New Brunswick actually having the biggest fall,

00:03:32.580 but she's still at 41% approval, having fallen 13 points. Wab Kanu in Manitoba, I don't know why

00:03:39.340 he's popular, but his popularity is currently 62% approval. David Eby, 31%. That means in the last

00:03:50.440 election, the NDP captured 47% of the vote. And in theory, if there was an election now, 16% of

00:03:57.960 people who voted NDP last time don't like David Eby. So yeah, I'm wondering if the guy even

00:04:04.820 survives the year. If he doesn't, we're going to be having a new NDP leadership race that I think

00:04:10.860 the NDP is going to have to decide if it's going to moderate towards the middle and get rid of the

00:04:15.040 reconciliation politics, or if it's going to get even more intense and they're going to try and

00:04:20.280 cut off the Green Party, who's actually been eating into the NDP, because the Greens have

00:04:25.880 been moving further and further left. And every time the NDP kind of motions that it might

00:04:31.260 moderate, Emily Lohan and the NDP usually carve off another one or two percent from them depending

00:04:37.780 on the poll that you look at. But now I want to take you guys into a provincial snapshot of how

00:04:43.700 things currently are. And someone's going to accuse me of cherry picking polls because the

00:04:48.880 polls I use 1BC is doing well in. The reason I'm about to use the polls I'm going to use

00:04:54.300 is because they're realistic. They have good sample sizes, and the results are realistic.

00:05:00.400 We have ResearchCo who just put out a poll recently, and it shows the conservatives are

00:05:04.960 up by a few points on the NDP, and conservatives are celebrating this. That poll has 1BC at only

00:05:11.960 2%, and CenterBC at 2%, a party that nobody has ever heard of before. They also have the Greens

00:05:19.200 at like 8 or whatever, which actually seems pretty low for the Greens. But ResearchCo is

00:05:23.920 just a bad pollster. And you could say, well, you just don't like that they only have 1BC at 2%.

00:05:28.440 They've only ever had 1BC at 1%, meaning that we've technically doubled our support in their

00:05:34.460 survey, but we were only at 1% in the dog days of John Rustad's leadership when 1BC was taking

00:05:41.380 off massively. I believe at the start of the year where other pollsters were putting us at 6, 8,

00:05:46.860 10, 11%, they still had us at 1%, meaning that I think Mario Canseco and Research Co.

00:05:52.880 are just a bad pollster. They're just not very good at sampling people, and they tend to have

00:05:58.060 very liberal samples overall. Yes, the conservatives are leading only by a little bit,

00:06:02.840 and that's because the NDP is just extremely unpopular with the sample that the research

00:06:08.260 co-people use, but they're usually one of the last pollsters to ever show that the NDP is down.

00:06:13.660 Again, a lot of people are looking at the Leger poll that shows the conservatives are up. Again,

00:06:17.980 they don't include both 1BC and they don't include center BC. And again, it's just the numbers don't

00:06:25.380 even make sense. Their last poll had the NDP leading by six, and now it's the Conservatives

00:06:30.680 leading by four, but somehow the Greens went from 13 points to eight points. The swings in those

00:06:36.620 polls don't make any sense. It's just the facts of life. Anyways, so I'm going to be using the last

00:06:43.640 Main Street poll that was conducted before the end of the leadership race that actually

00:06:48.360 polled how people would react if different people became the BC Conservative Party leader.

00:06:53.480 And since Carrie Lynn Finley is now the CPBC leader, I can use their Carrie Lynn Finley polling.

00:07:00.200 They showed with decided voters that Carrie Lynn Finley's BC Conservative Party would be polling

00:07:06.440 at 42 percent the ndp with david eby still as the premier of course would be at about 39.9 let's

00:07:16.440 just round it out and say 40 percent the greens would be at 6.5 of the vote that might be a little

00:07:25.960 bit of an under poll for them uh but you know that's just what happens uh maybe when like ndp

00:07:32.200 start consolidating behind or green start consolidating behind the ndp just trying to

00:07:36.600 stop the bc conservatives again that might have just been a bit of a sampling error and then 1bc

00:07:42.520 in this poll was at 11.1 we'll just round down to being 11 of the vote again this is main street

00:07:51.480 research we did not pay them this is not them trying to survey in favor of us in fact the guy

00:07:57.400 who runs it kudo baggy tends to be a fairly partisan federal liberal and so this was of

00:08:03.800 course a two-point lead for the conservatives so we have 42 here 40 six and a half and 11

00:08:15.400 across the board and then i want to get into another pollster that i like this one we actually

00:08:21.720 did commission this poll but chris the great canadian bagel pretty much all he does with

00:08:26.360 with the money is just jams it into getting a bigger sample size. He actually has some of the

00:08:30.460 more realistic national polls, just to give you some backup. When people are saying they trust

00:08:35.360 Leger in British Columbia, it's like, okay, you're a conservative saying you trust Leger.

00:08:40.800 At the same time, Leger is saying that the federal liberals have a 28% lead in British Columbia.

00:08:49.020 Leger is showing Alberta sometimes being won by the liberals, or at the very least,

00:08:53.340 all of Calgary would be read based on their current numbers. Leger polls give these insane

00:08:58.400 liberal leads because it just has a very liberal sample it takes from. It will often show the

00:09:03.680 liberals leading by 16 points federally. I'm sorry, I'm not going to trust that pollster when it comes

00:09:09.980 to BC provincially. Main Street Research has also put out some very liberal-leaning polling results

00:09:16.280 federally, but usually if you wait for the next couple of results, it becomes more normal again.

00:09:21.180 They have an outlier here and there, but Leger is all outliers. Great Canadian Bagel has the

00:09:27.660 current Liberal lead at about 7-8 points. That is very realistic right now. Yes, the Liberals are

00:09:34.080 ahead, but it's not one of these crazy, like, election-smashing leads, like, 12 or 15 points,

00:09:40.340 where Carney would win 230 seats. Right now, Bagel would show him winning, like, 187 seats,

00:09:46.140 190 seats. That doesn't mean that Carney could actually cash in and get that majority if he

00:09:51.480 called a snap election right now. It's kind of one of those sort of catch-22s in politics.

00:09:56.540 You would want to call a snap election in order to cash in with your polling lead,

00:10:00.420 but to call a snap election would basically completely eliminate your polling lead because

00:10:04.400 you'd take people off. But this is the last results that we had from the great Canadian

00:10:09.680 Bagel, who actually puts us a bit below the Conservatives. Right now, he has the Conservatives

00:10:16.120 or he has 1BC a little bit below what Main Street had us at. The Conservatives in Bagel's poll

00:10:21.860 is a lot like Main Street. He has the Conservatives at 41% of the vote. He has the NDP falling down

00:10:32.620 to just 36% of the vote, which would make sense because I think the NDP probably should be

00:10:38.920 suffering a lot more with their premier only with a 31 approval rating the greens are doing better

00:10:46.740 in bagels poll i would say more realistically so at eight and a half percent of the vote here

00:10:51.940 i think it's like 8.6 but we'll just say eight and a half because it's easier i'm not sure why

00:10:56.200 i wrote that in green when i didn't want to do that and then we have one bc in the great canadian

00:11:01.720 Bagels poll at 10.9, so we'll just show 11 again. When two different pollsters are showing 11.1

00:11:10.360 and 10.9, I tend to believe that pollster. In fact, what we had with the Great Canadian Bagels

00:11:17.320 poll is since his last one he did for us a couple months ago, we've gone up by a point, 1.2.

00:11:23.620 Conservatives have gone up by 0.3 or so. The NDP has dropped by a couple points, and the Greens

00:11:29.380 have basically kind of risen, or I think they lowered by like 1% or so, which makes sense.

00:11:35.900 Left-wing politics in BC are becoming less popular right now. So we have 41% there for

00:11:41.980 the conservatives. We have 36% there for the NDP, 8.5% for the Greens. Let's make that uniform

00:11:50.640 put in black. And we have 11% again for 1BC. Again, someone could accuse me of saying,

00:11:58.420 well, Wyatt, you did say you work for Dallas Brody in 1 BC. Of course, you're going to cite

00:12:02.140 a poll, putting them at 10 or 11. I'm citing two polls that the conservatives usually like to cite.

00:12:08.440 They like a lot of conservatives online like Bagel. He had a 506 person sample, which is quite good

00:12:14.400 because that's only decided voters. He pulled 506 decided people. Overall, it was like 600 people

00:12:20.660 he pulled. Main Street Research pulled like 1,000 or so, 1,200. They agree with each other,

00:12:27.140 So I'm going to accept it. Whereas with Leger and Research Co, they're not pulling all the parties or when they do pull us, it's so staggeringly low, it doesn't make any sense. Really, 2% right now, we were at only 1% when the Conservative Party was in an absolute garbage fire situation. Doesn't really make sense to me.

00:12:46.820 And so right now, I would say that this is fairly realistic to where things are currently at. Conservatives either have a slight lead over the NDP in Main Street research or a wider lead in the Great Canadian Bagels poll. Greens are climbing up a little bit on the NDP. I think that they are actually going to start extending into the double digits eventually as the NDP has more and more leadership problems.

00:13:11.700 and 1BC might go down. I would say that Carrie Lynn Finley, being the new conservative leader,

00:13:17.080 and this is us getting into the Carrie Lynn Finley issue, will she hurt 1BC's polling? Probably, 0.99

00:13:22.540 because you're going to get some people saying, well, she's a very conservative person, or at

00:13:26.640 least perceived to be quite a conservative person. Let's give her a chance. Now, I'm not trying to

00:13:32.020 naysay Carrie Lynn Finley here, because I think she has a lot of virtues. I also think there are

00:13:36.800 certain things where I'm going to wait and see and see what she does. She is somebody who, I would

00:13:43.020 say, projects a tough exterior. And that is a good thing for the Conservative Party. A big problem

00:13:49.260 with John Rustad and then Trevor Halford is that they were kind of easily pushed around by liberals

00:13:55.500 in their caucus. Or in the case of Trevor Halford, he is a liberal in the caucus. And so what

00:14:01.240 Carrie Lynn Finley really needs to do is resist liberals trying to push her back into the box 1.00

00:14:08.160 they had John Rustad in. Don't go too hard on the reconciliation issue. Don't run on a big tax cut.

00:14:15.120 Don't run on cutting spending. Just basically run the free enterprise BC liberal playbook

00:14:20.980 where we promise that we'll be a little bit more pro-business, kind of like the Doug Ford way of

00:14:26.020 doing things, where he's not that much different from a liberal other than the things that he

00:14:30.660 chooses to subsidize are, I guess, more conservative-coded than what a Kathleen Wynne

00:14:35.960 would be subsidizing if she were still in government. That's really the only difference

00:14:40.060 you get out there. So Carrie Lynn Finley, I think, can do really well in debates. I think she can be 1.00

00:14:45.420 tough. I think she can be quite conservative. Now, at different times in her career, like when she

00:14:50.060 was first elected in 2011, she was very progressive. She, in fact, voted for Bill C-276, I believe,

00:14:56.860 or 273, which was an NDP private members bill that was criminalizing not using preferred pronouns.

00:15:03.560 It was the thing that later Jordan Peterson protested against when Trudeau introduced

00:15:08.840 Bill C-16. Bill C-273 was actually the precursor to it. It passed all the way through the House of

00:15:16.160 Commons with the help of Carrie Lynn Finley and 17 conservatives when Harper was still premier.

00:15:21.060 It went to the Senate. The Senate sent it back for some amendments. The amendments didn't happen

00:15:25.720 before the 2015 election, so it died on the order paper, and Trudeau effectively revived it in the

00:15:31.540 form of Bill C-16 with the Senate amendments already added to it. So Carrie Lynn Finley has

00:15:37.440 been a progressive. At the same time, she would be what I would consider a very pro-property

00:15:44.220 rights conservative back in the 90s when she fought with the Musqueam, and now she generally

00:15:49.360 talks like a pro-property rights anti-reconciliation industry conservative. But what you hope is,

00:15:55.620 is that she's been more conservative. She's been less conservative. She's very much been a party

00:16:00.380 establishment stalwart at times as the whip for Pierre Polyev. A lot of election shenanigans that

00:16:07.080 went on in nominations in British Columbia over the last couple of years. I never heard her saying

00:16:11.920 anything about it. That doesn't mean that you should write her off because of that. That just

00:16:16.280 says that what we need her to do is very much rise to the occasion, kind of slough off normal 1.00

00:16:23.040 establishment politics and really get to work serving the grassroots. Don't let the millibars 1.00

00:16:28.960 and the alia war buses and the Brennan days, all the hacky liberals in the BC conservative party

00:16:34.160 dictate to you and threaten you. If anything, if they threaten you and say that they're going to

00:16:39.140 go start the BC liberal party again, which is currently getting started up, just say go for it.

00:16:43.820 I don't care. That's completely fine with me because you'll probably want to get rid of these

00:16:48.920 people later anyways, because if you have too many liberals in caucus, if you get a majority

00:16:54.100 government, let's say of two or three seats, the Carolyn Finley conservatives win 49 seats.

00:17:00.940 Well, if five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10 of them are massive liberals, like I estimate there

00:17:08.140 are, I think there's around 10 people in that caucus who really aren't that conservative at

00:17:11.940 all. Maybe they'll vote for conservative things that the party's whipping them, but they don't

00:17:15.920 have conservative instincts. If you're in a government with only a couple seat majority,

00:17:20.540 what says that these people aren't going to block you from making the changes that you want to make

00:17:24.420 or force you to water them all down? So my advice to Carrie Lynn Finley is put your foot on the gas.

00:17:30.320 If you start stalling out, if you start becoming cowed by your own liberals in caucus,

00:17:36.540 what are you doing here? Like basically leave politics if you're not going to start just

00:17:41.660 ripping up the turf and making changes like Dallas Brody. One woman as the MLA of her own party 1.00

00:17:47.900 is at 11% of the vote, both in our internal polls, as well as Main Street Research's polls. In fact,

00:17:54.400 they have us even a little bit higher than what we say that we're at. Maybe bring some of that

00:17:59.760 energy into the party because the BC Liberals, if they try and restart, they'll maybe hit 10,

00:18:04.800 12, 13% in an election. That's just because of the name and brand recognition, but that's not

00:18:10.720 what people want right now. In fact, you should be trying to cultivate that 1BC energy because

00:18:16.000 the conservatives should be far higher than this. And someone could say, well, it's because 1BC

00:18:19.460 splitting their vote. Vote splitting is a myth, guys. There is no such person who exists who

00:18:25.580 don't understand that this is the bigger party. Everyone understands the BC conservatives are

00:18:30.000 the more established, bigger party. They're voting 1BC for a reason. And it's things like

00:18:35.140 Dallas going to Kamloops and denouncing the Kamloops 215 grave hoax. They want a leader who

00:18:41.600 is willing to say the things that you previously could not say, not just to be edgy, not just to

00:18:46.340 be controversial, but because they need to be said because things like the Kamloops hoax have been

00:18:50.640 ripping apart the province. They don't want you to just repeal DRIPA and declare victory. They want

00:18:55.400 you to defund all the reconciliation industry crap. They want a big tax cut. They want you to 0.98

00:19:02.000 get gender ideology out of schools completely. They want you to defund all of the pride and DEI 0.99

00:19:07.860 stuff in the province. They just want big change. And if Carrie Lynn Finley starts just tinkering

00:19:13.680 too much and not changing, well, then why did we replace John Rustad with her? So this is more so 0.89

00:19:19.300 the scenario I'm painting. If she starts moderating and becoming more like John Rustad, then what's

00:19:25.020 the point? If she's still letting the liberals control the caucus, what's the point? If she goes

00:19:29.960 hard, then there is maybe a reason for there to be consolidation around the Conservative Party, 0.96

00:19:35.840 but she'll have to risk letting the Liberals say, screw you, I'm leaving. And guess what? She'd be 0.92

00:19:41.180 so much better for it, but she has to be able to rip off the band-aid and understand that this

00:19:47.280 party is not functional in the current state it's in, and singing kumbaya and talking about how

00:19:52.180 unified we are doesn't change anything. Anyways, with all that being said, thank you guys for

00:19:58.900 watching this video. Hopefully you appreciated the update on BC politics. If you again live in

00:20:04.640 the Kamloops, not Kamloops, the Kelowna, Okanagan area, sign up for our Kelowna event on June 14th.

00:20:10.880 Hopefully I didn't say Kamloops at the beginning of this video because I keep saying them

00:20:13.940 interchangeably, but forgive me. I'm bad at this sometimes, guys. I wish Carrie Lynn Finley luck

00:20:19.820 in everything that she does. I'm not here to naysay her. I will not jump down her throat every

00:20:24.320 time I perceive that she's made a mistake. That's not my role here, and that's not the role of 1BC 0.99

00:20:28.600 either to be the police officer of the BC Conservative Party. But of course, if you like

00:20:34.620 the work that we do at 1BC, consider going to the donation link also linked at the pin to the top

00:20:40.380 of the comments below. Make sure you guys like this video, subscribe, and consider becoming a

00:20:44.760 member of the National Telegraph YouTube channel to make this whole thing more sustainable for me.

00:20:49.860 With all that being said, thank you guys for watching, and I'll see you all later.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - June 11, 2026

Eby NDP Collapsing in BC - The Political Right Rises in New Polls!

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