The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Eby NDP loses support after begging for Greens votes (CPBC leads 5%)

00:00:00.000 So yesterday I talked about British Columbia Premier David Eby's gambit to try and get

00:00:07.660 B.C. Green voters to cast a vote for the B.C. NDP to try and block the Conservatives from

00:00:13.380 winning a majority, which already was kind of a tell that he knows he's probably going to lose

00:00:18.520 the election unless that happens. And what I had predicted was that a lot of people are going to

00:00:23.700 see this as deeply pathetic. A man who doesn't really deserve to be in office himself just was 0.96

00:00:29.460 appointed to be the Premier, begging that other people show up and save him. And I was basically

00:00:35.620 proven to be right that a lot of Green voters almost reactionarily said, I'm just going to vote

00:00:41.500 Green even harder because you had the audacity to just ask me to save you. Not because you've done

00:00:47.980 a good job, but just because I should hate the other guys, which is a terrible pitch to make.

00:00:53.260 This was the post that he had put up that I had read the other day. This election is unlike any

00:00:58.060 we've seen before. For Green voters, John Rustad is a risk that we can't afford or can't ignore.

00:01:04.860 He supports conspiracy theories and hateful candidates, yada, yada, yada. And it's so

00:01:09.940 condescending talking to the Green voters that we can't ignore the risk that he's taking.

00:01:15.220 We, like I'm not a Green voter, I'm obviously very pro-conservative, but you don't start saying

00:01:20.900 we, when you're not with them. They don't vote BC NDP for a reason. This is also why every time

00:01:28.220 people freak out and think that the Liberals and the NDP federally could get together to try and

00:01:33.020 block pure polyofs, conservatives, and continue on with the terrible coalition government that we

00:01:38.460 currently have despite people not liking them. It's not going to happen because the federal NDP

00:01:43.020 and the federal Liberals are different parties for a reason. In fact, I think if the Greens just

00:01:48.420 disappeared, more of the voters would probably end up voting conservative than they would end up

00:01:53.460 voting NDP because we are in an atmosphere of a change election. People want change and they are

00:01:59.440 voting for whoever the incumbent is not. Even if they are not voting for the conservative,

00:02:04.000 they don't want the incumbent. So almost no matter what happens, I think people are going to force the

00:02:10.800 conservatives into government. That the conservatives could just say, we're not campaigning anymore.

00:02:15.160 We're all going to go to sleep, go on vacation. And I think the voters of BC are just going to push

00:02:20.100 them through regardless. And, you know, there is still a chance the BC NDP could win, a substantial

00:02:25.960 chance. I just think that it's mostly leaning towards the conservatives winning this election,

00:02:31.440 75% chance from my own back of the napkin math on what I think might happen here. Regardless, though,

00:02:38.740 now I want to show you the numbers of what has resulted from David Eby just begging green voters,

00:02:43.980 vote for us and not the other guys. And it has resulted in the NDP losing votes and the Greens

00:02:50.900 gaining. This is a poll that includes undecided and decided voters who are likely to vote.

00:02:57.380 So these 3% of undecided voters are likely to at least vote in this election. They just don't know

00:03:03.920 who to vote for yet. And the BC NDP are still floundering at 38%. In fact, yesterday's poll showed

00:03:11.860 them at 39%. And they've dropped back 1% and the Greens have gone up 1% from 10% to 11% or it might

00:03:19.240 have actually been like 9.5% to 11%. And the conservatives are still riding high at 42%.

00:03:24.520 I believe if I go down to only the decided votes, it's actually an even larger lead for the conservatives.

00:03:30.920 Yeah, so let's go up to the decided voters only. It's 44% for the BC conservatives, 39% for the NDP,

00:03:40.180 and 12% for the Green Party, with 5% saying that they will vote for another party, which includes

00:03:45.260 some of the independent people who used to be united MLAs running for re-election. Most of them

00:03:50.860 aren't even trying. Most of them are only running because if you lose as an independent, you get a

00:03:55.120 transition allowance over the next 18 months, rather than just saying, I'm not running in this

00:04:00.800 election again, you actually get a big payout. That's what motivates a lot of these people in

00:04:05.680 my mind, because a lot of them are in ridings where there's not even a chance that they're going

00:04:10.040 to get more than 5% of the vote. And they're not even going to be able to trip up one of the other

00:04:13.800 parties. It's a riding that's going blue. And they're just there so that they lose and then get

00:04:18.780 another couple thousand dollars every month for the next 18 months. But this has been just an

00:04:24.420 unmitigated disaster for EB. You never show weakness in an election. You never admit you've done anything

00:04:30.380 wrong. You don't do anything like that, unless it's just one of those situations where, yeah,

00:04:35.340 you accidentally, you know, rolled a red stop sign, everyone saw you do it, and you're like, I apologize.

00:04:39.760 That's kind of one of those moments where you actually admit to doing something wrong. But in election

00:04:43.760 time, every time you admit to doing something wrong, the media makes it seem like you're admitting to 0.98

00:04:48.340 being a liar, a cheat, and a fraud. So for the most part, politicians tend to say nothing. Although

00:04:53.740 we want our politicians to be more honest, the problem is our media is so dishonest that by being

00:05:00.200 honest, they will pretend that you are a horrible, terrible person and you admit it. Regardless, though,

00:05:06.900 EB looks like he's going to lose. And really, that is what looks like it's going to happen here.

00:05:12.180 I just want to show you the crosstabs right now for the 2020 vote, including some of the undecided.

00:05:18.340 It's terrible for David EB right now. Only 63% in this IVR poll, 448 people polled, who voted BCNDP in

00:05:28.640 2020 say they're voting BCNDP in this election. Only 16% of liberal voters from last election are

00:05:35.320 voting BCNDP. The conservatives are winning liberal voters better than the NDP are winning their own

00:05:41.340 2020 base. And the conservatives are winning more NDP voters from 2020 than the NDP are winning liberal

00:05:47.900 voters from 2020. It's so bad for David EB right now. It's again, it's just one of those elections where

00:05:55.080 simply put, people want change. And there's not enough strength to push the NDP back in with the

00:06:03.020 type of voter numbers that we've seen coming out. First day of advanced voting, it smashed the previous

00:06:09.920 record. The previous record was something like 123,000 people voted in the advanced polls in the

00:06:16.440 previous record holding year. This year, we have 171,000 people voting in the first day of advanced

00:06:23.460 polls. And the BC conservatives do not have a monster of a campaign machine, the way that the

00:06:28.500 BCNDP or BC liberals usually would. That's organic. That's organically people showing up because they

00:06:34.780 just don't like the current government. I even can show you the likely voter numbers in these polls,

00:06:40.900 showing that the people saying that they're likely to vote, but not certain to vote are mostly NDP.

00:06:46.080 And those saying that they're certain to vote or already voted are heavily leaning towards the

00:06:50.160 conservatives. And now I'm just going to stop here. And this might turn a little bit boring.

00:06:55.020 Apologies in advance. But I'm going to show you why the other polls showing 5% plus NDP, 4% NDP,

00:07:03.080 and they're showing the NDP ahead. They're very likely off. Main Street research is actually probably

00:07:10.900 pollsters. And I'm not just saying that because they're showing the conservatives ahead.

00:07:14.560 IVR polls in general have been shown to be better because they reach a more diverse group of people.

00:07:20.740 And where diversity actually matters is in things like polling, because you need to pull a lot of 0.94

00:07:25.520 different types of people to see where different ridings are at. And the NDP or the NDP pro polls,

00:07:33.040 the polls showing the NDP ahead, and some of these polls are run by the conservatives like Angus Reid.

00:07:37.260 The problem is that they're not rebalancing their numbers properly. So in Main Street polls,

00:07:42.900 what you'll often see is 50% of the people who responded have university bachelor degrees or

00:07:49.520 higher, so graduate degrees as well. Only about 35% of people in British Columbia have

00:07:54.540 bachelor degrees from universities. The most people either have high school or less, or they have

00:08:00.040 trades degrees or college degrees. Those two groups lean heavily conservative. You know,

00:08:05.380 not many sociologist type people in those groups. And so university educated people lean a little bit

00:08:10.920 more NDP, but they're a minority. But when it comes to polling, they're more likely to pick up the phone

00:08:16.560 and answer a poll. They might be a little bit more likely to vote, but they're not going to be 50% of

00:08:22.020 the electorate. So Main Street research tends to weight their sample down a little bit. It's just not

00:08:27.700 the type of people who are going to show up and vote on election day. Just because you're more likely to

00:08:32.220 take a poll doesn't mean you're more likely to actually vote. If that was true, apparently South 0.77

00:08:36.360 Asians aren't voting at all and the election is going to be 95% white people. It's just white people 0.98

00:08:40.940 tend to take polls and other groups maybe are smarter than us all and they don't take polls

00:08:45.360 because it's annoying. Regardless though, the other thing that Main Street has shown is that they do

00:08:51.320 riding specific polls where they do, they pull 250 people, 220 people in one specific riding, which is

00:08:58.080 actually a really good sample when we're just talking about a riding of like 40,000 people or

00:09:02.760 40,000 eligible voters. And what their individual riding polling is showing is that places like

00:09:10.000 Kelowna, Limby, Vernon Limby are going, Lumby I guess, they're very conservative. All the other polls

00:09:16.880 are showing the North and Interior regions as a neck and neck race between the Conservatives and NDP.

00:09:23.200 That's not reality. That's not reality at all. And not only is that not reality, this is the same

00:09:29.140 mistake so many pollsters had made back in Alberta's 2023 provincial election. They showed the NDP up and

00:09:36.360 that the NDP was really tight with the UCP when it came to rural areas. It's not true. It's not true.

00:09:42.780 The UCP blew it out in the rural ridings. And now in BC, we're seeing that, oh, wow, the NDP is doing

00:09:49.460 pretty well in the North and Interior. It's like they could end up winning some of these Kelowna

00:09:54.260 ridings. They're not going to win all the Kelowna riding. The Main Street Research just released two

00:09:59.020 Kelowna riding polls. The Conservatives are at like 47% in these polls. In the weakest of the Kelowna

00:10:04.720 ridings, they were at 47%. Based on other polling projections, the Conservatives should have lost one

00:10:09.960 of the Kelowna ridings. It's just not happening. It's just not an NDP part of the province anymore.

00:10:15.580 And so when we do more specific polling and we try harder to reach more people who are

00:10:21.180 electricians, plumbers, farmers, small business owners, the ridings are much more conservative

00:10:25.400 than you think. Online polling panels tend to have a lot more, you know, public sector employees

00:10:32.580 in them, younger people, and it waters down what the sample that you're getting. A lot more university

00:10:38.140 art students in those areas, in those online polls that are making everything look more NDP.

00:10:43.840 But I still urge you, make sure you go out and vote. Make sure all your neighbors went out and

00:10:48.560 voted. It's not like a time to be nervous. Should I ask them if they voted or not? Guys, it could

00:10:53.340 save the province to get your one neighbor to finally go and vote for the first time in three

00:10:59.100 decades. So make sure you do that. But we can feel pretty heartened in that all of the more accurate

00:11:05.280 indicators are showing that this could be a conservative walkover. So make sure you get out and vote.

00:11:11.560 Do all that fine stuff. But to get back to it, I think really, and this is my theory on elections,

00:11:18.760 you can't short circuit public opinion. Most of the campaigning that people do, the debates,

00:11:25.200 the door knocking, the leafleting, all this, it's very important, but it's also brought really can't

00:11:31.460 change people's opinions. Money can't buy votes in a very real way. Michael Bloomberg proved this,

00:11:38.980 Tom Steyer proved this in the 2020 Democratic primaries. They spent massive amounts of money,

00:11:43.880 spent way more than Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders. Nobody voted for them because they didn't want

00:11:47.900 them. And I think in British Columbia right now, although you can find some of the more

00:11:53.240 hyper-partisan people on the polls saying they're still voting NDP, does the mood really feel like

00:11:58.740 NDP people are running out of the house to cast a vote for David Evie? Not really. There's a heavy

00:12:03.820 apathy when it comes to the NDP side of things. The NDP wouldn't be pulling stuff like begging

00:12:08.420 green voters to vote for them or like what you see in these car parks where like dozens and

00:12:15.500 dozens of green and conservative signs have been all torn up and torched by people. You don't do that

00:12:20.440 if you're winning. I know it's just probably a crazy crank who's NDP doing that. It's not like 0.95

00:12:24.500 the party's organizing that vandalism. No one would be caught dead in a party actually organizing

00:12:29.240 vandalism. It's just a bad look. But that stuff wouldn't be happening if there wasn't the internal

00:12:34.460 polling desperation inside the NDP. It's going to be a slug match on election day, but I think that

00:12:39.840 when we all see it shake out, there's just going to be the kind of silent middle class voter who

00:12:44.020 doesn't answer the polls. They're not very political, but they're going to come out and say,

00:12:47.400 I just need the taxes lowered. I just need someone to crack down on crime. I need the drug policies cut.

00:12:51.600 You know, things like we need, you know, actual letter grades back in schools. That sounds fantastic to most

00:12:56.800 people because it's so pathetic that we've become a province where the only thing you look forward to 0.91

00:13:01.880 is what the government's going to announce in terms of new programs. Programs cannot build an economy. 0.93

00:13:08.280 And this is also why the Green Party fails so hard and the NDP fails so hard on the federal level.

00:13:13.900 At the end of the day, people understand that the economy actually needs to work itself. It can't have

00:13:19.420 basically commissars sitting behind desks down in whatever capital of your province or country

00:13:26.100 organizing where the growth is going to come from. The growth happens where it happens and the

00:13:31.020 government's pretty much along for the ride. And the NDP has decided that actually it's in charge

00:13:36.300 of the economy. It's not. And that's why everything keeps falling apart more. The NDP try and fix

00:13:41.920 everything back up because it's the government that's the problem after a while. The economy knows

00:13:47.160 what to do. The government just has to let the economy do what it's going to do. 0.97

00:13:51.000 Anyways, that's it for me today, guys. If you want to support the show, I have in the description

00:13:57.120 below the give, send, go link for our legal fund. That's also pinned in the comments below. Make sure

00:14:03.400 to like this video, subscribe to the channel, do all that stuff, recommend the show to others. I've

00:14:07.940 talked to a lot of people just on the streets as I walk around who watch the show. It's great to see

00:14:11.900 you guys comfortable and walking up to me and then knowing that there's a big risk that if you start

00:14:17.640 talking to me about politics in real life, I'm going to ramble on about politics for 10 minutes

00:14:22.060 and make you late for whatever you're going to. But, you know, still great to see people liking

00:14:26.980 the show. And I hope that, you know, you all keep watching. Daniel Boardman just released a video for

00:14:33.100 the channel as well. You're probably going to see Daniel pop up more often these days. He's gotten a

00:14:37.740 lot of big victories that actually benefit your guys' lives that you don't know about, like helping

00:14:42.140 get the IRGC and Samadu listed as terrorist organizations in Canada. That's going to clean

00:14:48.540 up a lot of terrorist money laundering in this country. It's one of those minor things you don't

00:14:53.280 realize how much certain individuals do on those issues. But Daniel and some of his friends have

00:14:58.120 been very key in trying to root out terrorism in our country. Anyways, that's it for me today, guys.

00:15:04.680 Have a good one.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - October 16, 2024

Eby NDP loses support after begging for Greens votes (CPBC leads 5%)

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