Eby NDP loses support after begging for Greens votes (CPBC leads 5%)
Episode Stats
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Summary
David Eby's desperate plea to get BC Green voters to vote for the BC NDP has backfired spectacularly, with the party losing ground, the Greens gaining ground, and the Tories gaining ground in the polls.
Transcript
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So yesterday I talked about British Columbia Premier David Eby's gambit to try and get
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B.C. Green voters to cast a vote for the B.C. NDP to try and block the Conservatives from
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winning a majority, which already was kind of a tell that he knows he's probably going to lose
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the election unless that happens. And what I had predicted was that a lot of people are going to
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see this as deeply pathetic. A man who doesn't really deserve to be in office himself just was
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appointed to be the Premier, begging that other people show up and save him. And I was basically
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proven to be right that a lot of Green voters almost reactionarily said, I'm just going to vote
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Green even harder because you had the audacity to just ask me to save you. Not because you've done
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a good job, but just because I should hate the other guys, which is a terrible pitch to make.
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This was the post that he had put up that I had read the other day. This election is unlike any
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we've seen before. For Green voters, John Rustad is a risk that we can't afford or can't ignore.
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He supports conspiracy theories and hateful candidates, yada, yada, yada. And it's so
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condescending talking to the Green voters that we can't ignore the risk that he's taking.
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We, like I'm not a Green voter, I'm obviously very pro-conservative, but you don't start saying
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we, when you're not with them. They don't vote BC NDP for a reason. This is also why every time
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people freak out and think that the Liberals and the NDP federally could get together to try and
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block pure polyofs, conservatives, and continue on with the terrible coalition government that we
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currently have despite people not liking them. It's not going to happen because the federal NDP
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and the federal Liberals are different parties for a reason. In fact, I think if the Greens just
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disappeared, more of the voters would probably end up voting conservative than they would end up
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voting NDP because we are in an atmosphere of a change election. People want change and they are
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voting for whoever the incumbent is not. Even if they are not voting for the conservative,
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they don't want the incumbent. So almost no matter what happens, I think people are going to force the
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conservatives into government. That the conservatives could just say, we're not campaigning anymore.
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We're all going to go to sleep, go on vacation. And I think the voters of BC are just going to push
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them through regardless. And, you know, there is still a chance the BC NDP could win, a substantial
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chance. I just think that it's mostly leaning towards the conservatives winning this election,
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75% chance from my own back of the napkin math on what I think might happen here. Regardless, though,
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now I want to show you the numbers of what has resulted from David Eby just begging green voters,
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vote for us and not the other guys. And it has resulted in the NDP losing votes and the Greens
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gaining. This is a poll that includes undecided and decided voters who are likely to vote.
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So these 3% of undecided voters are likely to at least vote in this election. They just don't know
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who to vote for yet. And the BC NDP are still floundering at 38%. In fact, yesterday's poll showed
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them at 39%. And they've dropped back 1% and the Greens have gone up 1% from 10% to 11% or it might
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have actually been like 9.5% to 11%. And the conservatives are still riding high at 42%.
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I believe if I go down to only the decided votes, it's actually an even larger lead for the conservatives.
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Yeah, so let's go up to the decided voters only. It's 44% for the BC conservatives, 39% for the NDP,
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and 12% for the Green Party, with 5% saying that they will vote for another party, which includes
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some of the independent people who used to be united MLAs running for re-election. Most of them
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aren't even trying. Most of them are only running because if you lose as an independent, you get a
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transition allowance over the next 18 months, rather than just saying, I'm not running in this
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election again, you actually get a big payout. That's what motivates a lot of these people in
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my mind, because a lot of them are in ridings where there's not even a chance that they're going
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to get more than 5% of the vote. And they're not even going to be able to trip up one of the other
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parties. It's a riding that's going blue. And they're just there so that they lose and then get
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another couple thousand dollars every month for the next 18 months. But this has been just an
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unmitigated disaster for EB. You never show weakness in an election. You never admit you've done anything
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wrong. You don't do anything like that, unless it's just one of those situations where, yeah,
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you accidentally, you know, rolled a red stop sign, everyone saw you do it, and you're like, I apologize.
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That's kind of one of those moments where you actually admit to doing something wrong. But in election
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time, every time you admit to doing something wrong, the media makes it seem like you're admitting to
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being a liar, a cheat, and a fraud. So for the most part, politicians tend to say nothing. Although
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we want our politicians to be more honest, the problem is our media is so dishonest that by being
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honest, they will pretend that you are a horrible, terrible person and you admit it. Regardless, though,
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EB looks like he's going to lose. And really, that is what looks like it's going to happen here.
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I just want to show you the crosstabs right now for the 2020 vote, including some of the undecided.
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It's terrible for David EB right now. Only 63% in this IVR poll, 448 people polled, who voted BCNDP in
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2020 say they're voting BCNDP in this election. Only 16% of liberal voters from last election are
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voting BCNDP. The conservatives are winning liberal voters better than the NDP are winning their own
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2020 base. And the conservatives are winning more NDP voters from 2020 than the NDP are winning liberal
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voters from 2020. It's so bad for David EB right now. It's again, it's just one of those elections where
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simply put, people want change. And there's not enough strength to push the NDP back in with the
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type of voter numbers that we've seen coming out. First day of advanced voting, it smashed the previous
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record. The previous record was something like 123,000 people voted in the advanced polls in the
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previous record holding year. This year, we have 171,000 people voting in the first day of advanced
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polls. And the BC conservatives do not have a monster of a campaign machine, the way that the
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BCNDP or BC liberals usually would. That's organic. That's organically people showing up because they
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just don't like the current government. I even can show you the likely voter numbers in these polls,
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showing that the people saying that they're likely to vote, but not certain to vote are mostly NDP.
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And those saying that they're certain to vote or already voted are heavily leaning towards the
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conservatives. And now I'm just going to stop here. And this might turn a little bit boring.
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Apologies in advance. But I'm going to show you why the other polls showing 5% plus NDP, 4% NDP,
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and they're showing the NDP ahead. They're very likely off. Main Street research is actually probably
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pollsters. And I'm not just saying that because they're showing the conservatives ahead.
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IVR polls in general have been shown to be better because they reach a more diverse group of people.
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And where diversity actually matters is in things like polling, because you need to pull a lot of
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different types of people to see where different ridings are at. And the NDP or the NDP pro polls,
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the polls showing the NDP ahead, and some of these polls are run by the conservatives like Angus Reid.
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The problem is that they're not rebalancing their numbers properly. So in Main Street polls,
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what you'll often see is 50% of the people who responded have university bachelor degrees or
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higher, so graduate degrees as well. Only about 35% of people in British Columbia have
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bachelor degrees from universities. The most people either have high school or less, or they have
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trades degrees or college degrees. Those two groups lean heavily conservative. You know,
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not many sociologist type people in those groups. And so university educated people lean a little bit
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more NDP, but they're a minority. But when it comes to polling, they're more likely to pick up the phone
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and answer a poll. They might be a little bit more likely to vote, but they're not going to be 50% of
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the electorate. So Main Street research tends to weight their sample down a little bit. It's just not
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the type of people who are going to show up and vote on election day. Just because you're more likely to
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take a poll doesn't mean you're more likely to actually vote. If that was true, apparently South
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Asians aren't voting at all and the election is going to be 95% white people. It's just white people
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tend to take polls and other groups maybe are smarter than us all and they don't take polls
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because it's annoying. Regardless though, the other thing that Main Street has shown is that they do
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riding specific polls where they do, they pull 250 people, 220 people in one specific riding, which is
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actually a really good sample when we're just talking about a riding of like 40,000 people or
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40,000 eligible voters. And what their individual riding polling is showing is that places like
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Kelowna, Limby, Vernon Limby are going, Lumby I guess, they're very conservative. All the other polls
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are showing the North and Interior regions as a neck and neck race between the Conservatives and NDP.
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That's not reality. That's not reality at all. And not only is that not reality, this is the same
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mistake so many pollsters had made back in Alberta's 2023 provincial election. They showed the NDP up and
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that the NDP was really tight with the UCP when it came to rural areas. It's not true. It's not true.
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The UCP blew it out in the rural ridings. And now in BC, we're seeing that, oh, wow, the NDP is doing
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pretty well in the North and Interior. It's like they could end up winning some of these Kelowna
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ridings. They're not going to win all the Kelowna riding. The Main Street Research just released two
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Kelowna riding polls. The Conservatives are at like 47% in these polls. In the weakest of the Kelowna
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ridings, they were at 47%. Based on other polling projections, the Conservatives should have lost one
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of the Kelowna ridings. It's just not happening. It's just not an NDP part of the province anymore.
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And so when we do more specific polling and we try harder to reach more people who are
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electricians, plumbers, farmers, small business owners, the ridings are much more conservative
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than you think. Online polling panels tend to have a lot more, you know, public sector employees
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in them, younger people, and it waters down what the sample that you're getting. A lot more university
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art students in those areas, in those online polls that are making everything look more NDP.
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But I still urge you, make sure you go out and vote. Make sure all your neighbors went out and
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voted. It's not like a time to be nervous. Should I ask them if they voted or not? Guys, it could
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save the province to get your one neighbor to finally go and vote for the first time in three
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decades. So make sure you do that. But we can feel pretty heartened in that all of the more accurate
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indicators are showing that this could be a conservative walkover. So make sure you get out and vote.
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Do all that fine stuff. But to get back to it, I think really, and this is my theory on elections,
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you can't short circuit public opinion. Most of the campaigning that people do, the debates,
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the door knocking, the leafleting, all this, it's very important, but it's also brought really can't
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change people's opinions. Money can't buy votes in a very real way. Michael Bloomberg proved this,
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Tom Steyer proved this in the 2020 Democratic primaries. They spent massive amounts of money,
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spent way more than Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders. Nobody voted for them because they didn't want
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them. And I think in British Columbia right now, although you can find some of the more
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hyper-partisan people on the polls saying they're still voting NDP, does the mood really feel like
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NDP people are running out of the house to cast a vote for David Evie? Not really. There's a heavy
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apathy when it comes to the NDP side of things. The NDP wouldn't be pulling stuff like begging
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green voters to vote for them or like what you see in these car parks where like dozens and
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dozens of green and conservative signs have been all torn up and torched by people. You don't do that
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if you're winning. I know it's just probably a crazy crank who's NDP doing that. It's not like
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the party's organizing that vandalism. No one would be caught dead in a party actually organizing
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vandalism. It's just a bad look. But that stuff wouldn't be happening if there wasn't the internal
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polling desperation inside the NDP. It's going to be a slug match on election day, but I think that
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when we all see it shake out, there's just going to be the kind of silent middle class voter who
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doesn't answer the polls. They're not very political, but they're going to come out and say,
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I just need the taxes lowered. I just need someone to crack down on crime. I need the drug policies cut.
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You know, things like we need, you know, actual letter grades back in schools. That sounds fantastic to most
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people because it's so pathetic that we've become a province where the only thing you look forward to
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is what the government's going to announce in terms of new programs. Programs cannot build an economy.
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And this is also why the Green Party fails so hard and the NDP fails so hard on the federal level.
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At the end of the day, people understand that the economy actually needs to work itself. It can't have
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basically commissars sitting behind desks down in whatever capital of your province or country
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organizing where the growth is going to come from. The growth happens where it happens and the
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government's pretty much along for the ride. And the NDP has decided that actually it's in charge
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of the economy. It's not. And that's why everything keeps falling apart more. The NDP try and fix
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everything back up because it's the government that's the problem after a while. The economy knows
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what to do. The government just has to let the economy do what it's going to do.
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Anyways, that's it for me today, guys. If you want to support the show, I have in the description
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below the give, send, go link for our legal fund. That's also pinned in the comments below. Make sure
00:14:03.400
to like this video, subscribe to the channel, do all that stuff, recommend the show to others. I've
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talked to a lot of people just on the streets as I walk around who watch the show. It's great to see
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you guys comfortable and walking up to me and then knowing that there's a big risk that if you start
00:14:17.640
talking to me about politics in real life, I'm going to ramble on about politics for 10 minutes
00:14:22.060
and make you late for whatever you're going to. But, you know, still great to see people liking
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the show. And I hope that, you know, you all keep watching. Daniel Boardman just released a video for
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the channel as well. You're probably going to see Daniel pop up more often these days. He's gotten a
00:14:37.740
lot of big victories that actually benefit your guys' lives that you don't know about, like helping
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get the IRGC and Samadu listed as terrorist organizations in Canada. That's going to clean
00:14:48.540
up a lot of terrorist money laundering in this country. It's one of those minor things you don't
00:14:53.280
realize how much certain individuals do on those issues. But Daniel and some of his friends have
00:14:58.120
been very key in trying to root out terrorism in our country. Anyways, that's it for me today, guys.