The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Election simulation show clear path to Conservatives beating Liberals!

00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. I have some very interesting information to share with you guys

00:00:06.060 today that actually makes me far more hopeful that the Conservatives can win this federal

00:00:11.220 election. Previously, I knew there was a path to victory for the Conservatives, but I assumed it

00:00:17.000 was far more narrow than I do today. There's a general theory in Canadian politics that's

00:00:22.420 generally true, that if the Conservatives want to beat the Liberals, they usually have to win

00:00:27.780 the popular vote by two to three points to at least get a minority government, and to win a

00:00:33.220 majority, they have to win by five, six, or even seven points because of the differences in efficiency

00:00:39.140 between the Conservative vote and the Liberal vote. It's not unfair, it's just that when you're the

00:00:44.840 Conservatives and you win massive landslide victories in ridings like Battle River Crowfoot,

00:00:50.680 obviously that doesn't really mean anything in areas in the GTA or in southwestern Ontario. You

00:00:57.280 have to win a riding to win a riding, and the Liberals have always been better at winning very

00:01:02.520 marginal victories in the GTA where they're picking up ridings with 35-37% of the vote, whereas the

00:01:09.600 average Conservative riding is one with like 52% of the vote, which means that when they win the

00:01:14.980 popular vote, it might actually mean they're just doing extremely well in Alberta and Saskatchewan

00:01:20.380 and elsewhere they're underperforming. But the 338 Canada simulator basically suggests that in this

00:01:27.400 election, it may be the Conservative Party with the far more efficient vote compared to the Liberals.

00:01:33.620 The Liberals may be just running up the score in downtown Toronto and Montreal and in certain areas

00:01:39.680 of Vancouver and Victoria, but overall, they're actually having a lot of their vote recede in key

00:01:47.040 ridings that they need in the GTA, southwestern Ontario, Manitoba, Calgary, Vancouver, the mainland

00:01:54.260 area outside of downtown Vancouver. Their vote, in effect, is actually becoming more concentrated

00:01:59.480 in areas that they were already going to win. So I want to take you guys through the simulator.

00:02:05.600 It's extremely interesting information, but before I get into it, guys, just a reminder to like this

00:02:11.400 video if you've been enjoying my federal election coverage. Subscribe to the channel if you've been

00:02:17.040 videos and you're not yet a subscriber and you want me to pop up in your feed more often and leave a

00:02:21.580 comment about what you think. I will be putting a link to the 338 simulator pinned at the top of the

00:02:28.500 comments so you guys can play around with the numbers. Tell me what you think the most likely outcome is

00:02:33.300 going to be from your perspective. But now, let's get into it. So this thing is basically only allowing you to

00:02:41.820 slide the scales for each of the party votes based on what the general projections of 338 say the

00:02:48.820 realistic range is. Now, I think it is still overestimating the Liberals because remember that

00:02:56.280 right now, the 338 projections are including pollsters like ECOS Research that has the Liberals

00:03:03.280 16 points ahead and I think there's that new one MQD or whatever out of Quebec that has them also

00:03:10.240 similarly 13 points ahead. Guys, this is not a plus 13 election for any party. The Liberals or the

00:03:18.700 Conservatives, if I see them more than eight points leading in a poll or even five points, frankly,

00:03:24.580 I'm like, I discount that pollster because this is a knife fight election. This is not an election

00:03:30.220 where someone's going to somehow win by 10 to 15 points unless someone just pulls their pants down

00:03:35.480 and falls on their face on the debate stage. Although with Mark Carney, maybe that's not too

00:03:40.460 much of a, you know, that's not a small chance of happening considering how bad of a debater he is.

00:03:45.340 So right now, this is just the default settings for the simulator. This is just based on what 338

00:03:51.580 thinks is going to happen based on all the polls aggregated together. So they have the Liberals at 43.7%,

00:03:58.000 Conservatives at 37.5, NDP at 8.6, Greens at 2, Block at 5.8, and PPC at 1.5. They have an asterisk next to

00:04:09.080 the total vote share because they note that all of the major parties, basically everything outside of

00:04:14.980 parties that are only putting up 30 candidates or independents, all their vote in the 2021 election

00:04:21.000 added up to 99.1% of the vote, the rest of it being independents or even smaller parties.

00:04:28.000 I, right off the bat, I'm just going to say I suspect that this election, all the other independents

00:04:35.160 and all the other sort of small-time parties are not going to get more than maybe 0.4 or 0.5% of the vote.

00:04:43.040 This is a very divided election where it is clearly a horse race between the Liberals and the Conservatives

00:04:48.700 in the vast majority of the country. And unlike Aaron O'Toole, Pierre Paulyov hasn't really done

00:04:53.960 anything to tick off Conservatives. So right now, based on the default settings, they're projecting

00:05:00.160 a Liberal majority of 196 to 121 for the Conservatives. So obviously that is a Liberal

00:05:07.740 majority, 197 to 121. They're showing the NDP just keeping eight of their seats, the Greens getting

00:05:13.580 one, and the Block, Quebec, Hawaii getting 16. The PPC gets zero because the PPC always gets zero.

00:05:20.540 It annoys me, and maybe I'm just going to sidetrack here before I start adjusting with the meters here

00:05:26.400 into what I think is a realistic election. I keep seeing PPC guys whine that they are not going to

00:05:32.520 be included in the debate. Frankly, the Greens probably shouldn't be included in the debate

00:05:36.680 either. But do you know why the PPC is not included in the debate? I know people are going to say it's

00:05:41.320 because the Debate Commission changed the rules. Why did they change the rules? Because the rules

00:05:46.200 didn't make any sense. Because the PPC, who got 5% of the vote last time, was just going to be able

00:05:51.760 to, or was going to be allowed to be automatically on the debate stage, even though in this election,

00:05:57.680 they actually missed an entire quarter of their country to have candidates in, and their support

00:06:03.420 has fallen off a cliff. Do you really think just because the party got 5% of the vote, more than 4%

00:06:09.520 last election, that they should automatically be on stage no matter where their support has shifted

00:06:14.800 over time? Imagine the 2021 election if there was just something called the Anti-Lockdown Party of

00:06:21.000 Canada. Maybe I would have cast a vote for it because I hated Aaron O'Toole and the Conservative

00:06:25.740 Party that he was running. They were basically just, you know, 5% better than the Liberals, which made

00:06:30.800 them not worth voting for. Let's say the Anti-Lockdown Party of Canada gets 8% of the vote.

00:06:35.760 And then, next election, they're only around 0.1% of the vote, 0.5% in the averages, because

00:06:43.360 obviously the purpose of the party has completely died off. Who even cares if they're running a

00:06:48.460 candidate in every single riding? If there's no real prospect that any Canadian is going to

00:06:53.640 seriously consider voting for them, why should they immediately automatically get a leader debate

00:06:59.620 position when nobody is expecting them to even come close to winning a seat? That is the

00:07:05.560 problem for the PPC. Doesn't matter what they got last election, they didn't come close to winning

00:07:09.560 a seat in 2019, 2021, and they definitely aren't coming close in 2025, not even running a full slate

00:07:16.540 of candidates this time. Anyway, so that's my PPC debate rant. I've wanted to make a standalone video

00:07:22.060 on that for a while, but this will have to do a random rant in the middle of my simulator video.

00:07:27.640 So I don't actually think the Liberals are going to be doing 43.7% in this election. I don't think

00:07:35.480 they're going to be getting under 40% unless Carney's debate performance goes really bad. I think they're

00:07:41.720 mostly going to be just, you know, getting a little bit over 40. There are a lot of people, as we have

00:07:47.440 seen in other polls, people who voted Liberal in 2021 hate the Liberal Party right now. So I would find it

00:07:54.560 very hard to believe that the Liberals would go from 32.5% of the vote in 2021 all the way up to

00:08:00.680 effectively 44. I could see them getting more around 41.5%. Good, really good improvement for

00:08:09.020 the Liberals, and they're mostly benefiting from the collapse of the NDP, but they're not going to be

00:08:14.120 in the mid-40s from my personal perspective. Okay, now let's move on to the Conservative Party,

00:08:21.740 because I'll say right off the bat, 37.4% feels very low for the Conservatives. Really, again,

00:08:29.420 it's only this low because of pollsters like ECOS and, not Nanos as much, but ECOS and Angus Reid and

00:08:37.120 MQD being mixed in that put the Conservatives sometimes all the way back at 33%. Does anyone

00:08:43.920 seriously think that in this election, the Conservative Party of Canada is going to do worse,

00:08:50.400 if not just around the same amount that O'Toole did when he was ticking off the Conservative base?

00:08:56.160 Conservative base really likes Polyev, and we know this because when you poll 2021 Conservative voters,

00:09:01.800 most of them, the vast, vast, vast majority, like above 90% of them are voting Conservative this time,

00:09:07.540 whereas with the Liberals, it's only like 82% are still voting Liberal in this next election.

00:09:13.040 The only reason the Liberals have still been gaining is just from savaging the NDP and the Greens' vote

00:09:17.860 share, as well as the Bloc Québécois in Quebec. So I am going to just say off the bat, I think the

00:09:24.480 Conservatives can get 40% in this election. I think based on good turnout, based on young,

00:09:30.140 working class men who usually don't vote showing up, I think 40% is extremely achievable for the

00:09:35.940 Conservatives. Now, don't get me wrong, I think the Conservatives can do better than 40%, but at this

00:09:41.640 current moment, without the debate having occurred, without knowing how that's going to shake up the

00:09:45.600 race, let's just assume baseline, with all the money the Conservatives have, 40% is like default, it's

00:09:51.520 hard for them to underachieve that. Now, the NDP. So right now, we are at 99% of the vote allocated.

00:09:59.000 I'm just going to also say, and the PPC is going to be at like 0.8. I don't see them doing anywhere

00:10:06.760 close to what they did in 2021, and honestly, I don't see them even doing as well as in 2019.

00:10:12.120 Polyev has basically done a lot of the things many of the people in the PPC wanted, and the only

00:10:18.640 people who are really left voting for the PPC, some of them have good reasons, some of them really

00:10:23.020 don't like certain positions the Conservative Party has currently taken. But the vast majority of people

00:10:27.720 who voted PPC in previous elections have been satisfied with the move to the right that the

00:10:32.700 Conservative Party has made, and many people who are left over are really just party insiders and

00:10:38.520 purists who were repping the party in 2021, and it's almost become part of their personality to

00:10:44.260 keep repping it. Okay, so I put them down at 0.8, and now only 98.4% of the vote is allocated. Again,

00:10:53.960 I'll probably cut it off around 99.5 or 99.6. Now, let's move on to the Greens. The Greens are actually

00:11:01.860 fielding fewer candidates than the PPC, but they do have two incumbents. Do I think they're going to

00:11:08.400 be at 1.9? They had 2.3 last time. 1.9 is probably fine for them, because Elizabeth May and the leader

00:11:17.300 of the party, her co-leader, are probably going to get enough attention to at least pump up their

00:11:21.660 numbers in British Columbia and certain parts of Ontario in the southwest where their current seat

00:11:26.580 is in Guelph. I'm just going to leave them at that. Maybe we can adjust that bit later. Now, the NDP.

00:11:32.640 The NDP is truly the wild card of this election. That is why some pollsters, I don't really trust

00:11:39.580 them too much. I even like the way that Main Street Research does its polls, but when they consistently

00:11:44.700 have the NDP at like 6.4% or 5% sometimes or 7%, no, I'm actually going to show you something on screen

00:11:57.100 that somebody commented at me on X as of just like an hour or two ago. This guy made the very incisive

00:12:05.300 point that if you actually look at the NDP's track record over the past two decades, they have never

00:12:12.220 done worse than 15.6% of the vote. Yes, Jack Layton was the leader back in 2004, but he didn't even have

00:12:19.500 a seat in 2004. And so in 2004, 2006, 2008, they usually got from 15 to 18%. And even when Jagmeet

00:12:29.400 Singh took over, he got 15.9 in 2019, and in 2021, he got 17.8. Now, is Jagmeet Singh going to do very

00:12:38.360 well this election? Heck no, Jagmeet Singh is terrible at politics. He's not even exactly a

00:12:44.520 stupid guy. He was a fairly, you know, well-acclaimed lawyer. The man is very highly educated, but he just

00:12:51.800 has no instinct for politics. I think he's generally going to do fine on the debate stage, especially

00:12:56.780 compared to Mark Carney and also doing better than him in the French debate because he in fact speaks

00:13:02.700 much better French than Mark Carney. In fact, I actually think in a strange way, there is a

00:13:08.280 capacity for Jagmeet Singh to be a breakout star of the debate. Is it because he has good ideas? No,

00:13:15.120 it's just going to be that people haven't heard of him the entire time. And if Mark Carney underperforms,

00:13:20.480 he is going to be seen as some sort of dark horse figure from the debate who said a lot of things that

00:13:26.640 the media, you know, nodded at and thought was very intellectual when it's socialist nonsense. But again,

00:13:31.800 if Carney ends up flopping, Jagmeet Singh, for many people on the left, it will look like a highly

00:13:38.900 competent figure in comparison if you want more hard left politics. So let's get back to the chart.

00:13:46.400 Do I think they're going to be going to be at 8.5%? No. Again, I think you're probably going to have

00:13:52.840 these guys around 9, 9.5. I put them at 9.5. So we're at now 99.4% of the vote.

00:14:01.800 And maybe let's put the Greens a little bit further down because of the lack of candidates

00:14:06.440 compared to last time. Although last time, I think they even had fewer candidates.

00:14:09.720 It's actually never mind. No, I'll put them back up. Let's put the NDP a little bit further down.

00:14:14.300 Let's assume the pollsters are picking up on a dislike of them. But now I want to put the

00:14:20.000 Bloc Québécois up a little bit more because again, I really don't see this being an election where the

00:14:25.820 Bloc completely falls apart and loses all their seats outside of Montreal. When I say outside

00:14:31.960 Montreal, they don't have any Montreal seats or outside the one they won in a by-election.

00:14:35.580 By mean all their strength is outside Montreal. I don't see them losing all of that ground that

00:14:39.740 they've been gaining over the past few elections. I think they're mostly going to hold on to what

00:14:44.300 they have. So let's look at this. We're going to assume the Liberal Party of Canada is going to get

00:14:49.840 41.5% of the vote, Conservatives 40, the NDP 9.2, the Greens 2, Bloc 6.1, and the PPC 0.8% of the

00:14:59.180 vote. So in the previous average, they gave the Liberals 197 seats and the Conservatives 121.

00:15:06.440 Now let's get the seat projections for the new mix that we've put in here. And now we get a tie ball

00:15:12.500 game between the Liberals and the Conservatives of 153 to 153, with the NDP having 11 seats,

00:15:19.840 the Bloc with 2, and the BQ with 25. Now reminder that this wouldn't even really be enough for Carney

00:15:26.440 to have a functional minority if he demanded that he stay on as Prime Minister because he won the

00:15:31.620 popular vote and has the same amount of seats as the Conservatives. But he wouldn't be able to get

00:15:35.960 anything done because even with the NDP and the Greens, he is still short of a majority. And the

00:15:41.360 Bloc Québécois have made their entire brand the fact they don't want the Liberals to be in power

00:15:45.980 anymore. Because obviously, the Liberals are actually a massive threat to the Bloc's brand

00:15:51.240 at this point. The Bloc has been having its vote taken away by the Liberals. So by working with the

00:15:57.200 Liberals, they would just be doing the same thing that Jagmeet Singh had been doing since 2019,

00:16:01.540 making themselves utterly irrelevant by capitulating to the party that's currently eating away at their

00:16:07.260 support base. So 153 to 153. But let's say the Conservatives can do a little bit better than

00:16:15.460 just 40% and the Liberals do a little bit worse. Let's bump it down to 41 to 40.5. Again, this is

00:16:23.440 99.6% of the vote allocated around a realistic amount for all the major parties. What do we get

00:16:30.260 coming out of this? We now have 160 for the Conservatives to 145 for the Liberals, 11 for the

00:16:37.600 NDP still, one for the Greens, and 26 for the Bloc Québécois. Honestly, I actually might bump that

00:16:43.200 up a little bit for the Greens because I actually assume their guy in Guelph will be able to hold

00:16:46.060 onto a seat as well as Elizabeth May. And that gets us to 159 to 144. It actually takes one from

00:16:53.060 the Conservatives there. So this is being pretty fair in my opinion. But yeah, I'm not trying to say

00:16:59.880 like based on tinkering around because you've seen that I've had to put the Conservative bar up and

00:17:04.200 the Liberal bar down. Again, I don't feel like I am wish casting here because I think the polls have

00:17:10.860 been heavily leaning towards the Liberals in an unrealistic fashion. And this simulator is based

00:17:16.680 on that aggregation out there and only giving you a range of a couple points up or down.

00:17:22.560 Considering that this is giving the Conservatives very close to a majority

00:17:26.380 with a actually trailing popular vote amount is really good news for the Conservatives. And again,

00:17:34.640 I think these guys will actually be able to work with the Bloc Québécois if push comes to shove and

00:17:40.300 Paulyev falls short of a majority by even 15 seats or so. You can have the Bloc work with them.

00:17:47.420 Don't touch equalization. Don't touch a few other items. Cut taxes. Do some other basic stuff.

00:17:52.620 And you can probably actually then translate that minority government in this election into a majority

00:17:58.680 sometime in 2026 or 2027. This is what happened with Stephen Harper. He didn't need to win a majority

00:18:05.280 in 2006 or 2008. He just basically needed to make the case that he was on the inside track of what

00:18:13.440 Canadians wanted, was able to push through some of his legislation in those first two terms. And then

00:18:18.680 once his opposition got too uppity, he could say, give me the full majority. And eventually Canadians

00:18:23.820 did give it to him. So again, I assumed well before this, if the Conservatives even wanted a minority

00:18:29.780 government, they would have to be beating the Liberals 43% or 41% to like 38 or 39. They would have to

00:18:37.420 actually beat the Liberals by three points just to get a minority government. Now we see that the

00:18:43.840 Conservatives could get a minority government with actually less of the vote than the Liberals have.

00:18:50.220 Actually, let's just see if I can screw around. Can I actually get a Conservative majority out of this

00:18:53.940 based on the current rates? Can we do this? Can we actually do it? I'm just very curious at this

00:19:01.740 point. Let's say the PPC collapses all the way down to 0.5%. No, it's really hard at this point to

00:19:07.920 actually come out with a get an outcome like that. But I'll link that down in the description below as

00:19:13.540 well as pinned at the top of the comments. You guys can play around with that. I think, again, this is

00:19:19.620 demonstrating that there has been a fundamental realignment in Canadian politics, that the

00:19:24.880 Conservatives are obviously still going to be doing well in Alberta and Saskatchewan. And while they might

00:19:30.560 actually drop a seat or two in those provinces, they may more than make up for it in southwestern

00:19:37.840 Ontario, in certain parts of the GTA, in certain parts of Quebec, in Atlanta, Canada, and in British

00:19:44.760 Columbia, in those working class neighborhoods, especially Winnipeg, a heavy union province and a

00:19:50.860 heavy union city. The Conservatives have been getting all of the private sector labor unions endorsing

00:19:56.540 them. I don't think any of them have actually endorsed the NDP or the Liberals outside of those

00:20:01.840 white-collar public sector unions like QP and whatnot. So look up, guys. I think it's actually

00:20:09.960 very hopeful for the Conservatives right now. And again, we are talking about all this pre-debate.

00:20:15.980 If Polyev can put Carney in a corner, he doesn't need to, again, pants the guy and push him off the stage.

00:20:21.080 He just needs to basically demonstrate that this guy is kind of a bit of a slouch. He's not very

00:20:26.300 confident. I can best him in a debate. Doesn't mean, again, he has to dunk on the guy, but if he can

00:20:31.300 look more confident, more assertive, and like he has more definite plans that appeal to the base

00:20:37.800 values of Canadians, he can absolutely start punching up two or three points in the polls and be in this

00:20:44.000 winning position. And again, a winning position only requires the Conservatives to win like 155 seats,

00:20:49.980 157 seats, and have the Liberals come around like 140 or 137, something like that. So anyways,

00:20:58.100 that should be it for this video today, guys. Hopefully you don't mind me sitting there playing

00:21:02.800 around with charts and kind of talking about non-news items, but I always find the stats

00:21:07.900 interesting, and I do know a bunch of you do find the stats interesting, similar to myself. So anyways,

00:21:13.700 like the video, subscribe to the channel, leave a comment, let me know what you think the actual

00:21:18.040 percentage outcome is going to be between the Liberals and Conservatives on Election Day,

00:21:22.220 and I'll see you guys all next time.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - April 12, 2025

Election simulation show clear path to Conservatives beating Liberals!

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