The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - February 06, 2025


Federal Liberals and NDP massively behind Conservatives at 42%


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Length

18 minutes

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171.27536

Word count

3,130

Sentence count

206

Harmful content

Misogyny

3

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Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Wyatt Claypool explains why the post-Trude Trudeau polling numbers have plateaued out and why Mark Carney is the best choice to replace Justin Trudeau as the next Liberal Party leader. Also, why Chrystia Freeland and Karina Gould are actually worse than the other potential candidates.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here.
00:00:03.220 Well, it appears like the post-Trudeau polling bump has plateaued out for the Liberals,
00:00:08.980 and bad news for them, they are still nowhere close to actually being competitive in the 2025 federal election.
00:00:17.300 Most of these polls are probably going to be assuming that Mark Carney is the leader of the Liberal Party.
00:00:23.020 These are the polling numbers I've seen whenever they test Mark Carney as the leader,
00:00:27.240 and most Canadians at this point who are paying attention to politics assume it's probably going to be Mark Carney at the helm,
00:00:34.260 and they still have plateaued out at 26%.
00:00:38.320 What was even the point of getting rid of Trudeau?
00:00:41.580 Because about eight or nine months ago, before there was any moves to try and oust Trudeau,
00:00:46.800 this is what he was polling like, 26%, 25%, sometimes he'd fall down to 22%, but sometimes he'd be at 27%.
00:00:54.380 Just these mediocre mid-20s numbers that are way behind the Conservatives.
00:00:59.480 Conservatives in this poll are at 42%, Liberals 26%, NDP are at 17%, quite pathetically.
00:01:06.600 The Bloc are at 7%, the Green Party is at 6%, and the PPC is at 2%.
00:01:11.560 Now, I would usually think a 6% polling show for the Greens might be a little bit of an overpoll.
00:01:18.740 Maybe I'd put them down to a 5% or a 4%, but right now, the Liberal Party has such an unenergetic, mediocre support base,
00:01:27.000 I could see a lot of people going over towards the Green Party.
00:01:30.980 And the NDP, my goodness, how insane is it that while their biggest left-wing competition, the Liberals,
00:01:38.280 are bleeding out support, like 13% of it, they cannot capture any of it themselves.
00:01:44.580 In fact, if you see in this poll, the NDP in this poll are down 1% on their 2021 results,
00:01:52.980 which probably means they're only going to get 15% of the vote,
00:01:56.640 because the NDP has a tendency to severely overshow in the polls, and then they do worse on Election Day.
00:02:04.360 So in the 2021 election, they would have polls showing them at 23%, 22%, 21%.
00:02:09.580 They were at the low 20s. It looked really good for the NDP.
00:02:14.900 But then, like pretty much every NDP showing outside of 2011, the NDP got 18% of the vote,
00:02:23.240 because their members are more likely to pick up the phone and take a poll,
00:02:26.960 but that doesn't mean there's a lot of them.
00:02:29.220 That was the same thing for the PPC in 2021, that their people are the most likely to answer a poll.
00:02:35.900 So that's why in polls like ECOS and Leger, they're getting 7%, 8%, 10%, 12%,
00:02:43.420 and then they show up with 5%, because the actual support really wasn't there.
00:02:48.520 Their campaigns tend to be pretty incompetent. NDP campaigns as well.
00:02:52.660 If the NDP really cares about a riding, they could be good campaigners.
00:02:56.340 But most ridings, they don't try that hard,
00:02:58.860 and they end up dropping ridings that they probably could be competitive in,
00:03:02.360 because outside of maintaining their safe areas, they don't go anywhere else.
00:03:06.220 But this number, again, that's after all the effort to get rid of Trudeau,
00:03:11.080 and they're at 26%.
00:03:12.720 They are 16% behind the Conservatives.
00:03:16.860 The Liberals need to be in about 7 to 8 points of the Conservatives
00:03:21.940 if they want to hold the Conservatives down to a minority government.
00:03:25.240 If they want to win, they probably have to be about even with the Conservatives for a minority,
00:03:30.760 and to get a majority, they'd have to be about 5 or 6 points ahead.
00:03:34.440 And that's not happening.
00:03:36.440 I don't even think they can hold the Conservatives down to a minority government
00:03:39.580 if they play their cards right.
00:03:41.480 And I'm being realistic about what I mean when I say play their cards right,
00:03:44.860 because there's only so good you're going to play your cards with Mark Carney at the helm.
00:03:49.260 It's crazy that this guy is actually, like, the best leadership prospect
00:03:54.040 by the polling for the Liberal Party.
00:03:56.080 If they have Karina Gould or Chrystia Freeland in place as the leader,
00:04:01.160 they would actually be doing worse,
00:04:03.220 which makes me think, which Mark Carney are people watching?
00:04:07.720 I'm a Conservative.
00:04:09.060 I don't like Chrystia Freeland. 1.00
00:04:10.820 I don't like Karina Gould. 0.89
00:04:11.820 I don't like Carney.
00:04:12.440 I don't like any of these people running.
00:04:14.180 At the same time, I would say that Carney seems like one of the worst choices.
00:04:19.120 He's boring.
00:04:20.180 He's Mike Lignadiou-like.
00:04:22.140 He's just somebody who thinks he's better than you.
00:04:24.320 He exudes that.
00:04:25.540 It oozes out of him that he's better than you, smarter than you.
00:04:28.740 He could run your business and family budget better than you could.
00:04:32.620 But outside of that, there's not, like, a fun energy to him.
00:04:37.660 He's not a character.
00:04:38.920 He's, like, watching a calculator that doesn't work operate.
00:04:42.340 It's just frustrating, annoying, and very boring.
00:04:45.600 But here is the overall approval rating for seeing Justin Trudeau step down as leader.
00:04:53.940 Or, actually, no, favorability.
00:04:55.520 Yeah, this one is insane.
00:04:57.200 Trudeau's favorability among likely Liberal leadership voters.
00:05:01.100 His favorability is still at a 61%.
00:05:05.140 Unfavorability, 27, and neutral, or 13.
00:05:09.060 What?
00:05:09.700 Thank you for Alex Kohut for actually doing a poll on this.
00:05:14.380 He got 675 leadership voters to answer this.
00:05:18.800 How is that possible?
00:05:19.840 And remember that many Liberal leadership voters are, in fact, conservatives who signed up just
00:05:24.660 to troll them.
00:05:25.680 So maybe those are all the people saying unfavorable.
00:05:28.600 But, my goodness, how are 61% of people still thinking that Trudeau is doing a good job?
00:05:34.300 If you did a poll of Aaron O'Toole's approval rating among conservatives, they'd be honest
00:05:39.500 with you.
00:05:40.180 He would be underwater severely.
00:05:42.440 But this proves to me that the Liberals and the Liberal members, all the Liberals, not
00:05:48.280 just elected officials, but unelected supporters, they haven't learned anything yet.
00:05:53.540 They haven't learned their lesson, and they are going to just face swap their leaders,
00:05:58.560 but not their ideology.
00:05:59.480 They are going to have the same ideology, if not intensified, because Carney is the advisor
00:06:06.680 to Trudeau.
00:06:07.360 So he is now going to be trying to implement the peer vision, and the Liberals think that's
00:06:12.680 absolutely cool, totally fine, just do whatever you want.
00:06:15.820 We just don't want the Conservatives to win.
00:06:18.000 That's the problem.
00:06:19.080 Here is the approval rating among Liberal leadership voters on whether it seemed like a good idea
00:06:25.020 for Justin Trudeau to step down.
00:06:27.160 The question here is, did Trudeau make the right decision when he decided to resign as
00:06:32.080 Prime Minister, or should he have stayed on?
00:06:34.760 Right decision, 73%.
00:06:36.860 Should have stayed on, 27%.
00:06:39.580 So, this doesn't make sense to me.
00:06:43.400 Either I think that Liberals are suffering from cognitive dissonance, or they're lying.
00:06:48.980 Why do you think, how does he have a 61% approval rating, but 73% of people think it was the right
00:06:56.840 decision for him to step down?
00:06:58.520 So, was he doing a good job, or was he doing a bad job?
00:07:02.820 Get back to me on that, I guess, if you're a Liberal leadership voter, but that doesn't
00:07:07.280 make any sense to me.
00:07:08.680 If he's not good enough to stay on as Prime Minister, why is he a good enough person to
00:07:14.040 then say, oh, he's doing such a great job?
00:07:16.800 Now, I want to move over to a poll that I want to discuss in terms of whether I trust it or not.
00:07:22.820 I tend to like Main Street polling, and there's a lot of Liberals celebrating their federal Ontario
00:07:28.580 polling, where all they're doing is, because they're doing provincial polls, they're also
00:07:32.220 asking people who would they be voting for federally.
00:07:34.540 And yet, people out here like BK Belton saying, now we all know how I feel about polls, but
00:07:46.600 this is noteworthy, and MSM remains mum.
00:07:49.840 So, she hates polls, but she likes this poll because it shows the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives.
00:07:56.180 Now, what this is, is, like I said, it's a federal poll done by Main Street Research while
00:08:02.320 they're doing Ontario provincial polling, and it's only Ontario.
00:08:06.660 And over the past few days, they've been showing the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives in provincial
00:08:12.420 polling, and the NDP all the way down at 9%, which is already a hint for why I don't personally
00:08:17.740 trust this poll.
00:08:19.160 I trust polling in general, but the results have to make sense.
00:08:22.860 The NDP are not a 9% party in Ontario, they have seats in Ontario, they can, they're competitive
00:08:29.980 in Toronto, they're competitive in Northern Ontario, they have some areas where they definitely
00:08:35.340 can hold things down.
00:08:37.220 They're not 9%.
00:08:38.360 What this is reflective of, to me, is that the type of person who is willing to take a
00:08:44.380 provincial poll about Ontario politics is more likely to be Liberal, because there's not
00:08:49.800 actually that many real Conservatives, especially in the last election, who engage in provincial
00:08:54.820 politics, because Doug Ford's not Conservative.
00:08:58.080 And then who are your other options, really?
00:08:59.980 It's the Liberals or the NDP and the Greens.
00:09:02.560 I'd recommend if you live in Ontario, please vote for the new blue party of Ontario.
00:09:07.440 In fact, if you don't have a candidate in your riding, please run for them.
00:09:10.960 But the thing is that what this is striking me as is when you ask people multiple questions
00:09:16.740 about a provincial election, all the real Conservatives who just hate the election, they
00:09:20.940 hate Ford, they hate Crombie, they hate Stiles, they're sitting it out.
00:09:24.820 And especially a lot of NDP voters are also very unenthusiastic about their choices.
00:09:30.080 They don't like Stiles.
00:09:31.720 And so this is why I'm seeing a poll where a lot of Liberals are voting, but not a lot
00:09:35.600 of Conservatives and NDP compared to other polls that even Main Street has done.
00:09:40.400 Before they started doing their daily tracking poll that showed the Conservatives behind
00:09:45.060 the Liberals, their federal poll they did 10 days before showed in Ontario, the Conservatives
00:09:51.000 were like 12 points ahead.
00:09:52.740 They were significantly ahead in Ontario.
00:09:54.780 They were close to 50%.
00:09:56.280 And what that tells me, because they had the same sample size, it was like 950 people,
00:10:02.260 both in the peer federal version as well as the provincial version.
00:10:06.020 Again, it's saying to me that Ford's coalition is very liberal.
00:10:09.240 So the people who are more likely to answer poll are Liberal and less likely to be Conservative
00:10:14.180 or NDP.
00:10:15.340 No way the NDP is only getting 9% in a federal poll in Ontario.
00:10:20.840 I don't like the NDP, but I can be realistic about what their chances are.
00:10:26.720 Now, I just want to jump over to one other poll.
00:10:29.480 It was a little bit more friendly to the Liberals.
00:10:32.860 Actually, I want to talk about this first.
00:10:34.520 It's quite funny.
00:10:35.660 I'm not going to be able to fit this in anywhere else.
00:10:37.420 So somebody, to troll me, signed me up to the Liberal email list.
00:10:43.720 Even though I'm not a Liberal member, I've never signed up for a Liberal membership, it
00:10:47.140 appears that they didn't sign me up for one either.
00:10:48.940 They just put me on their email list.
00:10:51.780 I'm reading some of these Liberal emails, and they're crap.
00:10:55.960 They're garbage.
00:10:57.240 I don't know who's on their comms teams, but it demonstrates why nobody likes the Liberals.
00:11:01.740 They talk to people like they're five.
00:11:04.140 They say things that they have never earned the right to say.
00:11:07.640 So this is an email I had gotten from Karina Gould.
00:11:11.380 Now, we're not going to read through much of the email.
00:11:13.980 I just need to talk about the starting a little bit.
00:11:16.800 I actually do like her, you know, font that she uses for her logo and everything.
00:11:20.980 It's not too bad.
00:11:22.140 But look at this.
00:11:23.460 Wyatt.
00:11:23.840 But here, Polyev must be terrified of taking on Karina Gould as the next Prime Minister.
00:11:32.880 I'm sure Polyev is.
00:11:34.700 He is shaking in his boots about Karina Gould.
00:11:37.440 Not scared of Carney.
00:11:38.820 Not scared of Freelance.
00:11:39.920 Let's be clear.
00:11:40.520 He's not scared of any of them.
00:11:41.620 But if he's scared of one of them, Karina Gould's team knows it's her.
00:11:45.620 No, the school marm, Karina Gould, is not scary to Pierre Polyev.
00:11:54.520 Here's a Quebec poll that's asking people, it's from Leger, asking people how they'd be voting if different people were a leader.
00:12:01.660 And this is specifically just Quebec.
00:12:03.120 And, again, this one demonstrates to me that there is a sort of anti-conservatism among Quebec voters that shows that 38% of Quebec voters would consider, would vote liberal if Carney was leader.
00:12:17.000 This is also why I'm thinking that the liberals are suffering from a lot of hubris.
00:12:20.960 Every once in a while, a poll comes out that shows that they do so well with Carney in charge.
00:12:26.200 38% is better than Trudeau did in 2015 in Quebec.
00:12:30.840 So I'm heavily doubting that that would actually happen, that Carney, the man with pretty meh French, is going to do better than Trudeau.
00:12:40.420 In fact, I think it's the format of the question that sucks because it's saying, would you vote liberal if this person was leader?
00:12:46.180 It's not saying, let's say Carney's the leader of the Liberal Party.
00:12:52.100 Who are you going to vote for?
00:12:52.960 And then people can choose block, NDP, Liberal, Conservative, all the other choices, PPC, Green.
00:13:02.820 It's just saying, would you vote liberal if this person's in charge?
00:13:05.500 And it's kind of a bit of a skewed question.
00:13:07.380 But this is, again, another situation where I think the liberals are tricking themselves with not bad polling questions,
00:13:14.740 but polling questions that need context and thinking that they're going to be able to bag the whole crowd if they do it right.
00:13:20.260 It's just not, that's not what you're going to actually see, in my opinion.
00:13:24.560 Here's one more poll that demonstrates, again, a liberal polling bump, and it's better than the Nanos one.
00:13:32.440 Ipsos shows the Liberal Party of Canada at 28%, the Conservatives at 41%, and the NDP at 16%.
00:13:38.740 Block also at 9%, the problem here for the Liberals is that although they're doing better than the 26% in Nanos,
00:13:46.660 and the Conservatives are down one more point, again, not only are they still losing by 13%,
00:13:51.660 and this would mean a Conservative majority, but look at this, they're also grabbing a lot of their vote from the NDP.
00:13:59.080 Getting more votes from the NDP could win the Liberals a sizable bump of extra seats.
00:14:06.720 The problem is, is there's not that many seats that the NDP owns.
00:14:11.040 Yes, in certain ridings, they might be able to grab up enough NDP polls that they push themselves above the Conservatives,
00:14:17.680 but this is the thing about the Conservatives and the NDP.
00:14:20.920 It tends to be outside of Western Canada where they're Conservative versus NDP ridings.
00:14:26.940 The thing is that most ridings that the NDP owns are more, the next best party was the Liberals anyways,
00:14:34.640 and where the Conservatives are ahead, it's not a riding where, like, Liberal plus NDP is going to put them over the top.
00:14:44.120 Eating into the NDP's vote is going to make you do better in Toronto,
00:14:47.860 it's going to make you do better in Montreal and Vancouver,
00:14:50.920 but outside of those three major centres, it doesn't matter.
00:14:54.060 If you've ever seen NDP polling in the Maritimes, it's pathetic.
00:14:57.500 They don't win any seats in the Maritimes.
00:15:00.420 I guess it helps them into territories.
00:15:03.380 Manitoba, like Winnipeg.
00:15:04.720 But the thing is, outside of those city centres where the Liberals already own a lot of the seats,
00:15:08.920 they're only really competing for an extra 12 seats if the NDP keeps going down.
00:15:13.940 The NDP, in fact, going down and giving some of their votes to the Liberals,
00:15:17.900 might in fact mean Conservatives win more seats.
00:15:19.980 Because, again, a lot of the ridings that the NDP holds on to are kind of these suburban working class ridings
00:15:27.820 where a lot of people will either vote NDP or Conservative, and the Liberals are at, like, 20%.
00:15:32.700 So, yeah, the Liberals can go from 20% to 28%, and the NDP can shoot down from 37% to, like, 25%.
00:15:42.780 But that just means the Conservatives are obviously going to win that riding.
00:15:45.560 So that's the problem that the Liberals are in.
00:15:48.240 Unless they're significantly digging into Conservative support here, the dream's not happening for them.
00:15:54.680 They're not going to be able to overcome the lead unless they can win Conservative votes.
00:15:59.920 I'm a Conservative. I don't want them to win.
00:16:02.540 And I'm not saying this because I just want it to be true,
00:16:05.460 but it's going to be much more difficult for the Liberals to win Conservative seats or Conservative support
00:16:11.380 than it is other lefty parties where it doesn't really benefit them that much.
00:16:16.300 Because, again, it's just that the Conservatives are a pretty trusted brand at this point.
00:16:20.300 People genuinely like Polyev.
00:16:23.240 And so, you know, people have settled on Conservative,
00:16:26.620 and they've been saying Conservative for more than a year now.
00:16:29.360 They're not going to suddenly say,
00:16:30.440 Carney, oh, I love that guy.
00:16:32.220 He bores me to death, and so I'm going to go vote for him.
00:16:35.420 But anyways, that should be it for me today, guys.
00:16:38.700 Remember, if you like this video, like the video, well, I guess, very redundant.
00:16:43.540 If you enjoyed watching this video, like the video, subscribe to the channel.
00:16:47.780 I'm trying to get to 100,000 subscribers by mid-December.
00:16:51.080 And leave a comment, what do you think about the current polling?
00:16:54.200 I'll be back probably in my next video talking about Ontario.
00:16:58.420 Doug Ford actually is in significant trouble.
00:17:01.100 He got caught on a hot mic saying he would have 100% voted for Trump,
00:17:04.760 which is obviously not true.
00:17:06.000 He's a massive progressive and has partially endorsed Tim Walls
00:17:09.260 as Kamala Harris's vice presidential candidate. 0.63
00:17:12.920 And now the trade war is done.
00:17:14.820 The point of the election is completely moot.
00:17:17.540 It actually could get interesting in Ontario,
00:17:19.680 even though in a previous video when we assumed that a tariff war might happen,
00:17:24.040 it looked like it was going to be a clean sweep for Ford.
00:17:26.660 No longer.
00:17:27.880 And a polling company finally included the new Blue Party,
00:17:31.340 which I'm very happy with.
00:17:32.600 And so make sure you stay tuned for that.
00:17:35.280 And then I also have some other stuff I wanted to cover.
00:17:38.080 It might have been something else to do with polling.
00:17:39.900 I'm a polling junkie.
00:17:41.040 I like talking about polling.
00:17:42.640 But anyways, until then, see you guys next time.
00:17:45.860 Thanks for watching the channel.
00:17:46.860 Bye-bye.
00:17:47.420 Bye-bye.
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00:17:53.600 Bye-bye.
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00:17:54.640 Bye-bye.
00:17:55.760 Bye-bye.
00:17:55.900 Bye-bye.
00:17:58.420 Bye-bye.
00:18:01.000 Bye-bye.
00:18:04.920 Bye-bye.
00:18:05.540 Bye-bye.
00:18:06.380 Bye-bye.
00:18:08.700 Bye-bye.
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00:18:14.480 Bye-bye.
00:18:15.340 Bye-bye.