Federal Liberals and NDP massively behind Conservatives at 42%
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Summary
Wyatt Claypool explains why the post-Trude Trudeau polling numbers have plateaued out and why Mark Carney is the best choice to replace Justin Trudeau as the next Liberal Party leader. Also, why Chrystia Freeland and Karina Gould are actually worse than the other potential candidates.
Transcript
00:00:03.220
Well, it appears like the post-Trudeau polling bump has plateaued out for the Liberals,
00:00:08.980
and bad news for them, they are still nowhere close to actually being competitive in the 2025 federal election.
00:00:17.300
Most of these polls are probably going to be assuming that Mark Carney is the leader of the Liberal Party.
00:00:23.020
These are the polling numbers I've seen whenever they test Mark Carney as the leader,
00:00:27.240
and most Canadians at this point who are paying attention to politics assume it's probably going to be Mark Carney at the helm,
00:00:38.320
What was even the point of getting rid of Trudeau?
00:00:41.580
Because about eight or nine months ago, before there was any moves to try and oust Trudeau,
00:00:46.800
this is what he was polling like, 26%, 25%, sometimes he'd fall down to 22%, but sometimes he'd be at 27%.
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Just these mediocre mid-20s numbers that are way behind the Conservatives.
00:00:59.480
Conservatives in this poll are at 42%, Liberals 26%, NDP are at 17%, quite pathetically.
00:01:06.600
The Bloc are at 7%, the Green Party is at 6%, and the PPC is at 2%.
00:01:11.560
Now, I would usually think a 6% polling show for the Greens might be a little bit of an overpoll.
00:01:18.740
Maybe I'd put them down to a 5% or a 4%, but right now, the Liberal Party has such an unenergetic, mediocre support base,
00:01:27.000
I could see a lot of people going over towards the Green Party.
00:01:30.980
And the NDP, my goodness, how insane is it that while their biggest left-wing competition, the Liberals,
00:01:38.280
are bleeding out support, like 13% of it, they cannot capture any of it themselves.
00:01:44.580
In fact, if you see in this poll, the NDP in this poll are down 1% on their 2021 results,
00:01:52.980
which probably means they're only going to get 15% of the vote,
00:01:56.640
because the NDP has a tendency to severely overshow in the polls, and then they do worse on Election Day.
00:02:04.360
So in the 2021 election, they would have polls showing them at 23%, 22%, 21%.
00:02:09.580
They were at the low 20s. It looked really good for the NDP.
00:02:14.900
But then, like pretty much every NDP showing outside of 2011, the NDP got 18% of the vote,
00:02:23.240
because their members are more likely to pick up the phone and take a poll,
00:02:29.220
That was the same thing for the PPC in 2021, that their people are the most likely to answer a poll.
00:02:35.900
So that's why in polls like ECOS and Leger, they're getting 7%, 8%, 10%, 12%,
00:02:43.420
and then they show up with 5%, because the actual support really wasn't there.
00:02:48.520
Their campaigns tend to be pretty incompetent. NDP campaigns as well.
00:02:52.660
If the NDP really cares about a riding, they could be good campaigners.
00:02:58.860
and they end up dropping ridings that they probably could be competitive in,
00:03:02.360
because outside of maintaining their safe areas, they don't go anywhere else.
00:03:06.220
But this number, again, that's after all the effort to get rid of Trudeau,
00:03:16.860
The Liberals need to be in about 7 to 8 points of the Conservatives
00:03:21.940
if they want to hold the Conservatives down to a minority government.
00:03:25.240
If they want to win, they probably have to be about even with the Conservatives for a minority,
00:03:30.760
and to get a majority, they'd have to be about 5 or 6 points ahead.
00:03:36.440
I don't even think they can hold the Conservatives down to a minority government
00:03:41.480
And I'm being realistic about what I mean when I say play their cards right,
00:03:44.860
because there's only so good you're going to play your cards with Mark Carney at the helm.
00:03:49.260
It's crazy that this guy is actually, like, the best leadership prospect
00:03:56.080
If they have Karina Gould or Chrystia Freeland in place as the leader,
00:04:03.220
which makes me think, which Mark Carney are people watching?
00:04:14.180
At the same time, I would say that Carney seems like one of the worst choices.
00:04:22.140
He's just somebody who thinks he's better than you.
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It oozes out of him that he's better than you, smarter than you.
00:04:28.740
He could run your business and family budget better than you could.
00:04:32.620
But outside of that, there's not, like, a fun energy to him.
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He's, like, watching a calculator that doesn't work operate.
00:04:42.340
It's just frustrating, annoying, and very boring.
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But here is the overall approval rating for seeing Justin Trudeau step down as leader.
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Trudeau's favorability among likely Liberal leadership voters.
00:05:09.700
Thank you for Alex Kohut for actually doing a poll on this.
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And remember that many Liberal leadership voters are, in fact, conservatives who signed up just
00:05:25.680
So maybe those are all the people saying unfavorable.
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But, my goodness, how are 61% of people still thinking that Trudeau is doing a good job?
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If you did a poll of Aaron O'Toole's approval rating among conservatives, they'd be honest
00:05:42.440
But this proves to me that the Liberals and the Liberal members, all the Liberals, not
00:05:48.280
just elected officials, but unelected supporters, they haven't learned anything yet.
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They haven't learned their lesson, and they are going to just face swap their leaders,
00:05:59.480
They are going to have the same ideology, if not intensified, because Carney is the advisor
00:06:07.360
So he is now going to be trying to implement the peer vision, and the Liberals think that's
00:06:12.680
absolutely cool, totally fine, just do whatever you want.
00:06:19.080
Here is the approval rating among Liberal leadership voters on whether it seemed like a good idea
00:06:27.160
The question here is, did Trudeau make the right decision when he decided to resign as
00:06:43.400
Either I think that Liberals are suffering from cognitive dissonance, or they're lying.
00:06:48.980
Why do you think, how does he have a 61% approval rating, but 73% of people think it was the right
00:06:58.520
So, was he doing a good job, or was he doing a bad job?
00:07:02.820
Get back to me on that, I guess, if you're a Liberal leadership voter, but that doesn't
00:07:08.680
If he's not good enough to stay on as Prime Minister, why is he a good enough person to
00:07:16.800
Now, I want to move over to a poll that I want to discuss in terms of whether I trust it or not.
00:07:22.820
I tend to like Main Street polling, and there's a lot of Liberals celebrating their federal Ontario
00:07:28.580
polling, where all they're doing is, because they're doing provincial polls, they're also
00:07:32.220
asking people who would they be voting for federally.
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And yet, people out here like BK Belton saying, now we all know how I feel about polls, but
00:07:49.840
So, she hates polls, but she likes this poll because it shows the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives.
00:07:56.180
Now, what this is, is, like I said, it's a federal poll done by Main Street Research while
00:08:02.320
they're doing Ontario provincial polling, and it's only Ontario.
00:08:06.660
And over the past few days, they've been showing the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives in provincial
00:08:12.420
polling, and the NDP all the way down at 9%, which is already a hint for why I don't personally
00:08:19.160
I trust polling in general, but the results have to make sense.
00:08:22.860
The NDP are not a 9% party in Ontario, they have seats in Ontario, they can, they're competitive
00:08:29.980
in Toronto, they're competitive in Northern Ontario, they have some areas where they definitely
00:08:38.360
What this is reflective of, to me, is that the type of person who is willing to take a
00:08:44.380
provincial poll about Ontario politics is more likely to be Liberal, because there's not
00:08:49.800
actually that many real Conservatives, especially in the last election, who engage in provincial
00:08:54.820
politics, because Doug Ford's not Conservative.
00:09:02.560
I'd recommend if you live in Ontario, please vote for the new blue party of Ontario.
00:09:07.440
In fact, if you don't have a candidate in your riding, please run for them.
00:09:10.960
But the thing is that what this is striking me as is when you ask people multiple questions
00:09:16.740
about a provincial election, all the real Conservatives who just hate the election, they
00:09:20.940
hate Ford, they hate Crombie, they hate Stiles, they're sitting it out.
00:09:24.820
And especially a lot of NDP voters are also very unenthusiastic about their choices.
00:09:31.720
And so this is why I'm seeing a poll where a lot of Liberals are voting, but not a lot
00:09:35.600
of Conservatives and NDP compared to other polls that even Main Street has done.
00:09:40.400
Before they started doing their daily tracking poll that showed the Conservatives behind
00:09:45.060
the Liberals, their federal poll they did 10 days before showed in Ontario, the Conservatives
00:09:56.280
And what that tells me, because they had the same sample size, it was like 950 people,
00:10:02.260
both in the peer federal version as well as the provincial version.
00:10:06.020
Again, it's saying to me that Ford's coalition is very liberal.
00:10:09.240
So the people who are more likely to answer poll are Liberal and less likely to be Conservative
00:10:15.340
No way the NDP is only getting 9% in a federal poll in Ontario.
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I don't like the NDP, but I can be realistic about what their chances are.
00:10:26.720
Now, I just want to jump over to one other poll.
00:10:29.480
It was a little bit more friendly to the Liberals.
00:10:35.660
I'm not going to be able to fit this in anywhere else.
00:10:37.420
So somebody, to troll me, signed me up to the Liberal email list.
00:10:43.720
Even though I'm not a Liberal member, I've never signed up for a Liberal membership, it
00:10:47.140
appears that they didn't sign me up for one either.
00:10:51.780
I'm reading some of these Liberal emails, and they're crap.
00:10:57.240
I don't know who's on their comms teams, but it demonstrates why nobody likes the Liberals.
00:11:04.140
They say things that they have never earned the right to say.
00:11:07.640
So this is an email I had gotten from Karina Gould.
00:11:11.380
Now, we're not going to read through much of the email.
00:11:13.980
I just need to talk about the starting a little bit.
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I actually do like her, you know, font that she uses for her logo and everything.
00:11:23.840
But here, Polyev must be terrified of taking on Karina Gould as the next Prime Minister.
00:11:41.620
But if he's scared of one of them, Karina Gould's team knows it's her.
00:11:45.620
No, the school marm, Karina Gould, is not scary to Pierre Polyev.
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Here's a Quebec poll that's asking people, it's from Leger, asking people how they'd be voting if different people were a leader.
00:12:03.120
And, again, this one demonstrates to me that there is a sort of anti-conservatism among Quebec voters that shows that 38% of Quebec voters would consider, would vote liberal if Carney was leader.
00:12:17.000
This is also why I'm thinking that the liberals are suffering from a lot of hubris.
00:12:20.960
Every once in a while, a poll comes out that shows that they do so well with Carney in charge.
00:12:26.200
38% is better than Trudeau did in 2015 in Quebec.
00:12:30.840
So I'm heavily doubting that that would actually happen, that Carney, the man with pretty meh French, is going to do better than Trudeau.
00:12:40.420
In fact, I think it's the format of the question that sucks because it's saying, would you vote liberal if this person was leader?
00:12:46.180
It's not saying, let's say Carney's the leader of the Liberal Party.
00:12:52.960
And then people can choose block, NDP, Liberal, Conservative, all the other choices, PPC, Green.
00:13:02.820
It's just saying, would you vote liberal if this person's in charge?
00:13:07.380
But this is, again, another situation where I think the liberals are tricking themselves with not bad polling questions,
00:13:14.740
but polling questions that need context and thinking that they're going to be able to bag the whole crowd if they do it right.
00:13:20.260
It's just not, that's not what you're going to actually see, in my opinion.
00:13:24.560
Here's one more poll that demonstrates, again, a liberal polling bump, and it's better than the Nanos one.
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Ipsos shows the Liberal Party of Canada at 28%, the Conservatives at 41%, and the NDP at 16%.
00:13:38.740
Block also at 9%, the problem here for the Liberals is that although they're doing better than the 26% in Nanos,
00:13:46.660
and the Conservatives are down one more point, again, not only are they still losing by 13%,
00:13:51.660
and this would mean a Conservative majority, but look at this, they're also grabbing a lot of their vote from the NDP.
00:13:59.080
Getting more votes from the NDP could win the Liberals a sizable bump of extra seats.
00:14:06.720
The problem is, is there's not that many seats that the NDP owns.
00:14:11.040
Yes, in certain ridings, they might be able to grab up enough NDP polls that they push themselves above the Conservatives,
00:14:17.680
but this is the thing about the Conservatives and the NDP.
00:14:20.920
It tends to be outside of Western Canada where they're Conservative versus NDP ridings.
00:14:26.940
The thing is that most ridings that the NDP owns are more, the next best party was the Liberals anyways,
00:14:34.640
and where the Conservatives are ahead, it's not a riding where, like, Liberal plus NDP is going to put them over the top.
00:14:44.120
Eating into the NDP's vote is going to make you do better in Toronto,
00:14:47.860
it's going to make you do better in Montreal and Vancouver,
00:14:50.920
but outside of those three major centres, it doesn't matter.
00:14:54.060
If you've ever seen NDP polling in the Maritimes, it's pathetic.
00:15:04.720
But the thing is, outside of those city centres where the Liberals already own a lot of the seats,
00:15:08.920
they're only really competing for an extra 12 seats if the NDP keeps going down.
00:15:13.940
The NDP, in fact, going down and giving some of their votes to the Liberals,
00:15:17.900
might in fact mean Conservatives win more seats.
00:15:19.980
Because, again, a lot of the ridings that the NDP holds on to are kind of these suburban working class ridings
00:15:27.820
where a lot of people will either vote NDP or Conservative, and the Liberals are at, like, 20%.
00:15:32.700
So, yeah, the Liberals can go from 20% to 28%, and the NDP can shoot down from 37% to, like, 25%.
00:15:42.780
But that just means the Conservatives are obviously going to win that riding.
00:15:45.560
So that's the problem that the Liberals are in.
00:15:48.240
Unless they're significantly digging into Conservative support here, the dream's not happening for them.
00:15:54.680
They're not going to be able to overcome the lead unless they can win Conservative votes.
00:16:02.540
And I'm not saying this because I just want it to be true,
00:16:05.460
but it's going to be much more difficult for the Liberals to win Conservative seats or Conservative support
00:16:11.380
than it is other lefty parties where it doesn't really benefit them that much.
00:16:16.300
Because, again, it's just that the Conservatives are a pretty trusted brand at this point.
00:16:23.240
And so, you know, people have settled on Conservative,
00:16:26.620
and they've been saying Conservative for more than a year now.
00:16:32.220
He bores me to death, and so I'm going to go vote for him.
00:16:35.420
But anyways, that should be it for me today, guys.
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Remember, if you like this video, like the video, well, I guess, very redundant.
00:16:43.540
If you enjoyed watching this video, like the video, subscribe to the channel.
00:16:47.780
I'm trying to get to 100,000 subscribers by mid-December.
00:16:51.080
And leave a comment, what do you think about the current polling?
00:16:54.200
I'll be back probably in my next video talking about Ontario.
00:17:01.100
He got caught on a hot mic saying he would have 100% voted for Trump,
00:17:06.000
He's a massive progressive and has partially endorsed Tim Walls
00:17:09.260
as Kamala Harris's vice presidential candidate.
00:17:19.680
even though in a previous video when we assumed that a tariff war might happen,
00:17:24.040
it looked like it was going to be a clean sweep for Ford.
00:17:27.880
And a polling company finally included the new Blue Party,
00:17:35.280
And then I also have some other stuff I wanted to cover.
00:17:38.080
It might have been something else to do with polling.
00:17:42.640
But anyways, until then, see you guys next time.