Ford PC's support falls in polls after awful leaders debate! (debate & poll analysis)
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Summary
Wyatt Claypool talks about the Ontario leaders debate and why Doug Ford should have called a snap election a year and a half early to make sure that no opposition to him shows up to the polls. Also, he gives his thoughts on the polling numbers and why Ford could actually lose this election.
Transcript
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Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. So I watched the Ontario leaders debate so you don't have to.
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And man, after watching that thing, I am not shocked that the turnout for this provincial
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election is going to be extremely low, and that's how Doug Ford likes it. He doesn't want scrutiny,
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that's why he called a snap election a year and a half early in the bitter cold to make sure that
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no opposition to him actually shows up. I would urge you if you live in Ontario and you're in one
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of the 108 ridings where the new blue party of Ontario has a candidate, please show up and please
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vote for them so that we can register that a lot of Ontarians want principled conservatism back in
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government. Even if they don't win a seat, it helps grow the party. So I want to take you through a
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little bit of this Ontario leaders debate, and then I want to talk about the polling. Because despite
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the fact that Ford is in the lead, he could actually lose a lot in this provincial election.
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Some polls show that he's going to basically win every seat except for like a couple dozen.
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Other polls show that it's actually getting kind of tight because why even show up and vote for Ford?
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There is no difference between the PCs, the Liberals, and the NDP, and I'm really not exaggerating.
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I'll play some of the clips that Doug Ford and Bonnie Cromby posted after the debate, but I don't want
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to show you a lot of it because, frankly, nothing really happened. And that's kind of the big story
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here. Nothing happened. Well, folks, we're going to have a very clear choice in this upcoming election.
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This is all about leadership. We've seen what Donald Trump is going to do in the White House for the
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next four years. And no matter if he puts a tariff on us today, tomorrow, next month, next year,
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you know, it would devastate our economy. There's one person on that stage that's going to protect
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your families, protect jobs, and protect businesses and protect communities. And that's myself.
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We're going to reinvest into the economy like we did. And we saw over 850,000 jobs.
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He creates jobs the way Trudeau creates jobs. He takes taxpayer money and he just craps it into
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industries that he happens to like. The battery industry, the EV car industry, anything that Doug
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Ford is in favor of and his lobbyists like, he will give money to. That is exactly how the Trudeau
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liberals work federally. If it's a green boondoggle, they will give it money. Ford gives money to green
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boondoggles all over the place, but then he markets it as pro-business to sound conservative. It's ridiculous.
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The diversified trade around the world, which we did, we saw over $70 billion of investment.
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But I can't do it without a strong mandate. If I get a strong mandate from the people of Ontario,
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I will work harder than I've ever worked. I will fight against Donald Trump like you've never seen before.
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I feel like I'm in, it's a wonderful life. And it's that scene where that guy loses the money. I'm like,
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what did you do with the first mandate you had? You have a year and a half left in your massive
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majority mandate. Why did you need another election? And the dirty secret as to why
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Ford needed an early election is because he's not conservative. And once Pierre Polyev very likely
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becomes the next prime minister of Canada, Ford's going to look pathetic next to him. He doesn't
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want to run a provincial election after Polyev gets into office and starts doing actually conservative
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things. And people look at Ford and say, dude, you're reminding us a lot of Justin Trudeau and how
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you operate compared to Pierre Polyev. That's why Ford wants this election. But I'll move on and give
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Bonnie Crombie a chance to speak just so you get the feel of what these closing statements were like.
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But again, it's so pathetic. Ford's like, I need you to give me another mandate. You had one. What
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did you do? Break it? You need another loan from us? But here is Ms. Crombie.
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It's time for a change. A vote for Ontario's Liberals is a vote for family doctors. And how am
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I going to do that? By paying them better, bringing more of them, bringing in those internationally
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trained doctors that could be your children who are trained in the US or the UK. Let's bring them
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back home by doubling the residency spaces by paying our nurses and our PSWs a living wage. But none of
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that can happen while Doug Ford is premier. So it's time for a change.
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Sorry. I guess that's not a closing statement. But you would have me fooled because literally
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Doug Ford, Bonnie Crombie, Merritt Stiles, who is a Bonnie Crombie doppelganger, they look
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the same. And Mike Schreiner there, he kept doing this weird squint every time he started
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talking. He'd be like, Ontarians, we need communism or whatever he would say. If I'm giving these
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people letter grades, everyone does not get an A. Nobody gets an A. We are shifting the goalpost
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down. The best you can do is a B. If I'm giving people letter grades here, let's start off
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with Doug Ford. He gets a C because he didn't fail. He didn't have a moment where he just
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flopped onto the ground and died. But he also wasn't conservative at all. Literally, every
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time someone would question his record from the left, he would just start talking about
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how much money he has burned. I invested billions into that. I have given subsidies to this.
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I did blah, blah, blah. And then the other leaders would be like, Well, you didn't subsidize
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the thing I would subsidize. What the heck, Doug? Literally, the Fraser Institute, which is
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a conservative slash libertarian think tank, has had to come out and say that Doug Ford is
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literally worse on spending with inflation added in and without COVID spending being considered.
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He is worse at spending than Kathleen Wynne was. That is how bad Doug Ford is. That you could say
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technically good things about Kathleen Wynne in comparison. Obviously, Kathleen Wynne was a disaster
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and started the problems. The problem is once Ford picked up the football, he didn't do anything
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with it. He just spiked it. And he just pretends that because he has kept things steady, although
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everything's steadily increasing and how bad it is, that means he's been doing a good job.
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Do I have a merit styles thing? So I give Ford a B. Really wasn't anything going on with this guy.
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Here's another Bonnie Crombie clip to give you a bit of taste of what she was doing.
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If I'm giving Bonnie Crombie a letter grade, I give her a Bonnie Crombie B. Again, is she good on
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policy? No. Is Ford good on policy? No. Styles? No. Shriner? No. We're not considering policy in this
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election debate analysis. We are considering. Did they get the job done? Bonnie Crombie was kind
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of twitchy. She reminded me of Chrystia Freeland. She landed some punches on Ford, and that's why she
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gets a B because she wasn't comatose. Styles? I'll get to her later, but I'll let her talk a little bit
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more. You were promised a tax cut, but you never got it. Here's what I'll do with Ontario Liberals.
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I'm going to cut your taxes. Yes, your income tax, and you will pay 22% less on the first $75,000.
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I'll also take the HSD off your home heating and your hydro bills, and I will build homes that are
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more affordable because we're going to take off those hidden taxes, and there will be no tax on
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carbon. You can take my word for it. This is the funny thing. Do you know that Bonnie Crombie is,
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in fact, in certain aspects of this election, running to the right of Doug Ford? She, in fact,
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at one point had to say, well, Doug's the Trudeau liberal. I'm just an Ontario liberal, but he's the
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one who keeps working with Trudeau. That's how, you know, cattywampus this entire election is.
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Doug Ford has a stronger connection to Justin Trudeau than Bonnie Crombie does. That's how ridiculous
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this whole thing is. Do I trust her that she would actually cut taxes? No, not really. But isn't it
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funny that she can run on cutting taxes because Ford, in two terms, hasn't cut taxes? 2018,
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he was supposed to cut income taxes and do a lot of other stuff. In fact, taxes have gone up. He
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temporarily has reduced the gas tax a little bit, and he said, made some bloated noises about how he's
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going to get rid of the gas tax this time completely. I don't believe him. You know why I don't believe
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him? At the same time, he was opposing the federal consumer carbon tax in court, a court case that
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looks like the PCs intentionally scuffed because, in fact, they actually agree with the consumer carbon
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tax. They passed their own industrial carbon tax on top of the consumer carbon tax. So if you live in
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Ontario, you pay a double carbon tax, first from the refinery, and then secondly, on your actual
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consumer side through the gas pump in your home heating bill. It's ridiculous what's going on in
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Ontario right now. So Bonnie gets a B for having any energy at all. She's now trying to go for NDP
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votes, which is extremely stupid. She's literally, like, saying, NDP voters, please come and vote for me.
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Election strategy tip, never vocalize what your strategy is. Never come out and say,
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I want NDP voters. What you do is you change your messaging to try and get them.
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You don't just say, I want you guys. It's kind of like a birthday wish. If you say it,
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you're not going to get it. Just think it and then try and maneuver towards it. But here's a small
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exchange between Ford and Crombie where you saw a little bit of the fireworks of Doug Ford.
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Thank you, Doug. Doug, I have one question for you, and one question only. After seven years of lies,
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Well, first of all, action speaks louder than words. And people have seen us spend over $200 billion
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on infrastructure, no matter if it's $50 billion worth of hospitals or $28 billion in building roads
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and highways or $70 billion in building transit. Doug, you put us into an extra $100 billion
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of debt. How does any one government... Literally, we are having a debate where Ford is the liberal
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arguing that his spending makes him good. And Bonnie Crombie, the liberal, is having to criticize
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him for spending too much. Again, would she spend the same amount as him? Probably. But still,
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my goodness. This is, again, please vote for the new blue party if you're in one of their
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ridings. They have 108 candidates out of 124. Super short notice election. They were trying to get
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candidates like three months ago. But obviously, a lot of people were like, obviously, there's not
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going to be an election, guys. We're still a year and a half away. And the places they're missing
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candidates are usually places that there's the least amount of conservative voters, like in
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Parkdale High Park and Spadina and places like that. But please vote for them. Because I think
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there needs to be this shocking moment on election day that, my goodness, the new blue party actually
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caught 15% in some of these ridings. And $100 billion. And two and a half million people still
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don't have a family doctor. Doug, Doug, Doug, a fantasy tunnel. How dumb is that, Doug? 40-year project?
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Infrastructure. Okay, let's give us a chance to answer. I believe in building infrastructure.
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Under the Liberals and NDP, there was nothing built. There was no subways. We're building the
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largest subway extension in all of North America. We're building highways and roads and bridges.
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By the way, the vast majority of the stuff has not been built. They just have plans or
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released that they might build it. Because we know one thing. There's $56 billion that's
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costing our economy every single year. Doug, this tunnel is a fantasy. This is a fantasy project.
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It is a 40-year project. It won't be built in my lifetime. It will not alleviate any congestion.
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It will bankrupt the province at $150 billion. There are alternatives. Why don't you invest in
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the alternatives? Why don't you invest more in public transit? And this is where Bonnie Crombie's
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ridiculous, too. Even as sometimes she argues to his right, she then swings back to exactly where
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Ford is on the left and says, well, we need more buses. Like, how about you guys get real? Like,
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this is one thing I will agree with Ford on. Yeah, it's good to start preventing municipalities from
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taking up roads with bike lanes that ends up causing congestion. Still, that's a pretty small drop in the
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bucket when it comes to trying to make it a more livable province. Again, he'll argue,
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I haven't raised a tax in the entire time I've been premier, which is a lie. They have raised taxes.
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He's talking about income taxes. I haven't raised income taxes. Well, of course you haven't raised
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income taxes. They are effectively at the ceiling. If you raised income taxes anymore, you would just
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immediately lose 100,000 actual business owners and wealthy individuals who already paid most of the
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taxes. That's why he hasn't raised any taxes. It'd be like if Polyev takes over for Trudeau and then
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four years later says, you know, I never raised a tax. I'm like, well, we elected you to lower them.
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It's not an achievement that you suck as bad as Trudeau. And I'm very, I'm confident he will lower
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taxes. But that is the big difference between a Polyev and a Ford is that Ford likes the government
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revenue because he likes the power that it gives him because you can give up more money to friends
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and allies and spending to try and buy voters with $200 checks. Whereas Polyev takes the perspective as I
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would as a provincial, as a principled conservative, and the perspective that Jim and Belinda Kaur-Halios
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would at the New Blue Party, who, by the way, Jim and Belinda, Jim specifically, are the ones who started
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the Axe the Carbon Tax movement back in 2018, who opposed Patrick Brown from trying to bring in a carbon tax
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into the PC Party platform in Ontario. He also started the Take Back movement of Take Back Our PC Party
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that also was taken by Take Back Alberta and some other people. He's been very effective and not
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enough people know about him. But those are people, Polyev and the Kaur-Halioses, will actually lower
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taxes. Ford pretends that just not raising them means he's a fiscally responsible guy.
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There's an alternative highway parallel. The 427 could be leveraged. Truck only lanes on the 407.
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Doug, this is a fantasy that would bankrupt our province. No one believes you. You make other
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Okay, that marks... It was... Yeah, and so, like, those were some of the more heated moments.
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Again, that's why Crombie gets a B. Ford gets a C because he didn't mess up.
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Merit Stiles, who, oh my goodness, don't make me play Merit Stiles videos.
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I guess I have to play one. Okay, I'm going to have to play one. But in the time that it takes me
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to bring up this video of Merit Stiles, I'm just going to comment on Mike Schreiner. Mike Schreiner's
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a communist who doesn't deserve any attention or love. He was truly bad every single time he talked.
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He was like, we need to reduce bureaucracy, but we should also spend more on stuff.
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It was just... He's just there. It's a typical Green Party sanctimonious politician.
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Here is NDP leader Merit Stiles, who looks the exact same as Bonnie Crombie, saying some stuff.
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After seven long years of Doug Ford and his wasteful scandals and his broken promises,
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rising costs are really hurting a lot of people in this province, and they are weakening us.
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A few weeks ago, while he was facing, and we were facing, the biggest threat that our country has
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faced in generations, he decided to quit his job. Now, most people in Ontario, if you quit your job
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and then you didn't show up for work the next day, you wouldn't expect to be rehired. But Doug thinks
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that he deserves that. I got to tell you, you don't have to settle for this. You have the power to
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change things. And I want to offer you that hope. We can fix our schools. We can build truly
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For my own health and safety, I'm going to cut that clip off early because who cares?
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By the way, guys, make sure to like the video, subscribe to the channel, and leave a comment.
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I'm actually flying out to Ontario tomorrow to help the new blue party out because I put my money where
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my mouth is when it comes to helping out small parties and large parties. You get a lot of influencers
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out there who like to tweet online, but they don't actually hit doors. That's why I appreciate
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Brittany. If you guys know Brittany, she does a lot of videos and she does a lot of podcast type
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stuff, but she hits doors and leaflets and does all that stuff. It's very effective on the ground.
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But yeah, Merit Stiles gets a D. She was barely there. Again, typical NDP sanctimonious performance.
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What did I give Schreiner? Did I give him a D? My goodness, I should give him an F. Yeah,
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Mike Schreiner gets an F. He doesn't deserve anything. Yeah, and this
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is why nobody's voting. Everyone was just talking about how much money they want to spend,
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and if they went after somebody else for spending too much, it was that they spent too much on this
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specific project, and that money could have been burned in their favorite burning barrel.
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And so this is why today's polling, or yesterday's polling, the day after the debate,
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the conservatives have continued to slump further down from where they used to be just probably about
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five or six days ago. For five or six days, they were actually polling around 37%, 38%, 39%.
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And then going towards the debate, I think Ford had another kind of flub, went down to 35. Day after
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the debate, now he's at 33. Within kind of punching distance of the liberals, this is with undecideds
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added in on the Main Street poll. If you take out leaners, he does grow his lead a little bit. And then
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if we go to just leaners and decided voters and we remove undecideds, he's at 39%. But that's not very
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comfortable because Ford's kind of used to being above 40%. So he might win a majority government
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with only 39%. Honestly, the ideal outcome, in my opinion, is for nobody to win, to have a hung parliament
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where nothing gets done because that is where taxpayers are the safest right now. Because all these
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parties, given a lot of power, are just going to jack up more spending. The thing I find interesting
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is 6% of Ontarians say that they would vote for another party. That doesn't mean they're actually
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going to turn out and vote. The other vote is always hard to gauge. Really, it just sounds like 6% of
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people who even bother taking the poll because a lot of poly of federal conservatives are just going
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to pick up the phone. Here it's about a provincial election. I'm like, oh goodness, it's Ford
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and like Stiles and Crombie and hang up. This is, I don't usually like to show the data charts from
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Main Street because you do have to pay for these polls and they don't want you like splashing around
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the results everywhere. But I always usually just highlight a couple of things I find particularly
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interesting. Look at this. When I break it down by region, where this other vote is coming from,
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Niagara, Hamilton, Niagara, and Waterloo, 14.1% of voters say they would vote for other.
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And that's with 139 people polled. That's not too bad. 230 people polled southwest and north Ontario,
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15% of people, almost double what we're voting green, would vote for another party. Maybe that's
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mostly Ontario. The thing I find interesting is where other doesn't do well, and it's not shockingly
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where there's not a lot of blue candidates, new blue candidates, is in Toronto. Because right now in
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the province of Ontario, the voters who, while they might be undecided, they're not unsatisfied with
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their top three options of the Liberals, NDP, and the PCs. Because each party is a leftist grab bag
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of different things that they'll throw money at. And so these voters might not know who they're voting
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for, but they definitely don't want the principled conservative option. But if you go to the conservative
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parts of the province, that's where people are saying, I'd like to vote for somebody else, because all of
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these options suck. So that's my last pitch on voting new blue guys. All these options suck, and you've got
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to indicate it to the political establishment. Especially if turnout is low, you showing up is going to beef
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up how much your vote adds to the percentage that the new blue party gets. And I think that is important
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for voters to see that in their riding, an unknown new blue candidate, who is working hard, they're hitting
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the doors, they're doing as much as they can, could get 10%, could get 12%. And maybe people take notice, and we
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can get something going in Ontario the same way that the Conservative Party kicked off in BC to have an actual
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option in the next race. But every election matters. There's no such thing as the election where change isn't going
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to happen. There are elections where you're preparing for the change to happen, and the election where you
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cash in on that change actually occurring, but you have to run as hard as you can every single time, or
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people aren't going to trust that you're actually committed. Anyways, so that's it for me today, guys.
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My goodness, I couldn't believe having to vote in this Ontario election. So more power to you if you
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actually show up and vote new blue. But that should be it for me today, guys. Like the video, subscribe to the