In the past, I ve talked a lot about why I don t think Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada can win the next federal election in 2015, but rarely have I talked about the other side of that equation, which is how the Conservative Party and its candidate, Andrew Scheer, won a majority government in 2019 and 2021.
00:00:00.000In the past, you've heard me talk a lot about why I don't think that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada can win the next federal election in 2015.
00:00:09.400But rarely have I talked about the other side of that equation, being how does the Conservative Party and pure poly of win a majority government?
00:00:16.400We're still more than a year and a half away from the next federal election, and a lot could happen.
00:00:21.520And I want to talk in pure numbers terms of what a Conservative majority government has to look like at the ballot box.
00:00:27.780And in order to explain that, we've got to time travel back to 2015 and see how Trudeau won his majority government, and then how he held on to a minority in 2019 and 2021.
00:00:39.260So here are the 2015 election numbers.
00:00:42.520Turnout was way up in 2015. It was 68.3%, up from 61.1%.
00:00:48.520This was mostly off the back that Justin Trudeau, at least to center-left Canadians, was a very charismatic leader compared to Michael Ignatieff.
00:00:55.540So not only did he draw out a lot of Liberals who stayed home last election to vote for him, he also stole a lot of voters away from the NDP, and because, in fact, he actually is a very orange Liberal Party leader.
00:01:08.180So he ended up getting a bunch of NDP voters to vote for him, and he got a lot of stay-home Liberals to show up in 2015.
00:01:28.360And so in 2019, a lot of people think, well, Justin Trudeau rigged the next election.
00:01:32.940He might have pulled a weird trick or whatever to make people vote for him.
00:01:36.340Every once in a while, you get people like this who are like, he must have cheated because I hate Justin Trudeau so much.
00:01:40.680Okay, I can tell you that Justin Trudeau did not cheat in those elections, because how did his voter counts keep going downwards after this?
00:01:49.940In 2019, despite winning a minority government, not only did the Conservatives beat the Liberals in terms of the popular vote,
00:01:56.860but Justin Trudeau lost more than 900,000 voters between 2015 and 2019.
00:02:03.260Trudeau had a 6.4% reduction in his voter turnout or his popular vote totals.
00:02:09.300That is a terrible thing for Justin Trudeau.
00:02:11.840But because we have a very sort of liberal culture in Canada, the Liberals tend to be given a little bit more latitude to mess up than Conservatives.
00:02:24.280And although the Conservative votes increased, it's more so that the Conservatives increased their votes in places the Conservatives were already popular in.
00:02:35.080And we can basically expect that in order to get a majority government in Canada, at least in the last couple decades, you need 7 million votes.
00:02:43.480But I believe since the population has gone up so much, pure poly probably needs about 7.5 million votes.
00:03:03.140Some Conservatives might have stayed home under the media's sort of attacks that somehow Andrew Scheer was radical.
00:03:08.440But overall, the Conservative benefited from driving out their base a little bit more.
00:03:13.020However, in 2021, some really bad things happened for the Conservatives under Aaron O'Toole because he was such a bad leader.
00:03:20.800And even though Justin Trudeau, when I show you the numbers, was extremely beatable in that election, voter turnout was severely down despite it being easier than ever to vote with all the advanced voting, the mail-in votes and all that.
00:04:08.460It's moderate voters, center-right voters who were previously voting a Liberal stayed home, but everyone seemed to stay home for both the Conservatives and the Liberals in such a way where it basically changed nothing.
00:04:20.800Trudeau won an extra five seats, and it was mostly around that sort of GTA Vancouver donut.
00:04:25.720They also covered a seat in Calgary with George Chahal, the Porch Pirate.
00:04:28.980But overall, this was pretty much a completely neutral election outcome.
00:04:55.220So in my mind, for the Conservatives to win in 2025, they needed the magic numbers, I think 7.5 million votes.
00:05:04.260And this is where I'm going to get into a little bit more strategy.
00:05:06.740In order to get that 7.5 million votes, I think the Conservatives already have enough capture in terms of the amount of people willing to vote for them in order to achieve that number or even much higher.
00:05:19.260The way the Conservatives could mess up right now, and I'm literally running for a Conservative Party nomination, Wyatt Claypool and Calgary Signal Hill, go vote for me, this is the riding, shameless plug.
00:05:27.820The way that the Conservatives could hurt themselves is thinking that in order to capture even more of the electorate, we don't need more than 40% of the vote in order to win this thing.
00:05:38.260We could win with 38% of the vote and have a majority government.
00:05:41.020It's just the way the Canadian politics works.
00:05:42.580I think we would maybe prefer to have 42%, 43%.
00:05:46.040I think we can already achieve that in terms of turnout because I guarantee Liberal Party turnout and NDP turnout is going to be down because people are not impressed with how their government is performing.
00:05:57.020In terms of the voters for those parties in the past.
00:06:00.280But for the Conservatives to win at this point, I think that we've already found our section of voters.
00:06:06.320All we need to do is basically play to the base in a good way, not in a toxic way where all we do is keep doubling down and trying to seem more hardcore.
00:06:14.800Polyev is plenty orthodox Conservative.
00:06:17.160He's a very strong Conservative, and I think he just needs to play to his strengths now of proving that he's the best critic of Justin Trudeau, but he's also a professional who should be leading this country.
00:06:26.520He's a reformer, and we need a reformer.
00:06:29.020That's how we drive out our base in order to hit that 43% of the popular vote and over 7.5 million votes.
00:06:36.120The way we could screw this up, the way we could scuttle this whole thing is if certain people in the background of the party, and so far it hasn't happened, I just don't want this to happen, is we run too many Red Tories, too many Red Tories win nominations.
00:06:49.100And this is on Conservative Party members themselves to make sure we have strong Conservatives in these writings, because if we start moderating too much, thinking that if we moderate our policy, if we water things down, maybe we can capture 45, 47, 48% in the new polls.
00:07:04.040But the problem is, if you do that, you're going to have a lot of people think, well, what are you guys doing?
00:07:09.460We already have enough people to vote.
00:07:10.620And then if people don't trust the Conservatives, the Conservative base doesn't trust them, that's when voter turnout could fall again.
00:07:18.000Pure Polly basically has to learn from the mistakes of Aaron O'Toole, although I don't think it was really mistakes on Aaron O'Toole's part.
00:07:25.060He just exposed himself as a Liberal before the 21 election.
00:07:28.560He has to learn from the mistakes more so of Andrew Scheer and say that actually when everyone does not like Trudeau and your own base likes you, you've got to drive the base out.
00:07:39.620In the 21 and 2019 elections, and even frankly in the 2015 elections, the Conservatives forgot who they were and started trying to drive out people to vote for them who are not traditional Conservative voters.
00:07:51.820And so our own traditional Conservative voters felt like they were not being properly serviced like they should be.
00:07:56.800And so they were just like, well, why am I going to show up?
00:08:01.180And so what the Conservative Party needs to do is do not forget your voters, stick to the plan, stay the course, and then keep banging the drum on the issues that you're good at.
00:08:10.660Do not shift in order to capture another community that's not right now voting for you.
00:08:15.080Do not shift in order to think that you're going to capture a big center-left vote.
00:08:18.940By doing that, you're only going to lose more votes on your right flank.
00:08:22.400We are in a perfect position to win, and to get that 7.5 million votes, we just need to focus on turnout.
00:08:29.640We just need to focus on campaigns and turnout.
00:08:46.780And that's why I'm, frankly, running for the Conservative Party nomination, Calgary-Signal Hill, another shameless plug.
00:08:52.500If you live in this area of Calgary, it's on West Calgary, this is what the riding boundaries will look like after the redistribution of boundaries in April for new ridings in Alberta.
00:09:01.580If you live in this riding, buy a membership to vote for me, number one on your ballot.
00:09:05.000Because if we have red Tories, like there are a ton of, running in my area of Calgary-Signal Hill,
00:09:10.260if we have red Tories start to occupy these empty Conservative nominations in these ridings that we want to win,
00:09:15.940we actually do run the risk of a bunch of people saying,
00:09:19.100OK, I like Polyev, but what's this pro-lockdown person doing here?
00:09:22.700Not just, in general, they didn't say enough during the lockdown periods.
00:09:27.220I don't exactly blame too many politicians for not doing enough.
00:09:30.140But the people who are hardcore pro-lockdown, we do not want them.
00:09:33.260If they are pro-censorship, like they've been in the past, I have some pro-censorship people running in my area.
00:09:38.640If these people get in, even in safe ridings, they could have a knock-on effect in ridings or swing ridings and say,
00:09:44.120well, I like Polyev, but why is the pro-lockdown person here?
00:09:47.100Why is this obvious red Tory, this hyper-social-progressive-liberal running in my area as a Conservative?
00:09:52.540That's how we could find ourselves falling short by 1,500 votes in this riding,
00:09:57.480by 2,000 votes in that riding, by 500 votes in that riding.
00:10:00.360The GTA donut is going to be all about turning out our base,
00:10:04.440not finding a Liberal base to turn out, turning out our own base.
00:10:08.180So we've got to stay the course, stay focused.
00:10:10.440This is why I encourage all of you, buy a Conservative membership, no matter what riding you're in,
00:10:16.900get on the board, make sure you influence the party board to stay the course,
00:10:20.700stay Orthodox Conservative, and vote in good, strong Conservatives in nominations if they're open.
00:10:26.760Find the person who is the most pro-freedom, who is the best critic of Justin Trudeau,
00:10:31.180who is not just a flaky fiscal Conservative who wants to maybe get rid of the carbon tax and that's it.
00:10:35.920You want someone who actually challenges Trudeau on all the issues, or you run the risk of having
00:10:41.340your own voter base in those areas saying, well, why should I reward you with a seat if you're not
00:10:46.320actually opposing Trudeau on all of his crap? You're just saying, well, I don't like the carbon tax.
00:10:51.620That's not enough. It needs to be more than a carbon tax election. So far,
00:10:55.380Polyev's been doing a good job. He's been hard on crime. He's been wanting more military spending.
00:11:00.140He's been wanting to get woke stuff out of government institutions. He's opposed gender
00:11:04.660theory and gender conversion. Fantastic. That is how we make sure the base knows we're real
00:11:09.680and make sure that they know that we're not going to abandon them the way O'Toole did.
00:11:14.440So much of the Conservatives' work since 2021 has been proving we're not the O'Toole party.
00:11:19.480The red Tory O'Toole era is over. In order to keep it closed, we need to make sure that we have good
00:11:25.740non-O'Toole Tories representing us in our ridings. So again, Calgary Signal Hill,
00:11:31.480if you live in Calgary, I urge you, every video I put up, there's at least 300 people watching me
00:11:36.620from my riding. Check which riding you live in. Buy a membership. Vote for me number one. Vote for
00:11:42.200good Conservatives in your nominations, regardless of what area you are in. If you're in Burlington,
00:11:47.580Emily Brown's a fantastic Conservative. Check which riding you live in. If there's an open nomination,
00:11:52.120figure out who's running and ask them real questions, figure out who the real Conservative
00:11:56.440is. Anyways, that should be it for me today. I also have my usual legal fundraising link in the
00:12:03.040description below. Myself, the National Telegraph, in the stupid defamation suit because Alberta does
00:12:07.940not have anti-slap laws. So this guy suing us has been dragging out this dumb lawsuit claiming we
00:12:12.880defamed him with no evidence. We provide tons of evidence that everything we said was true.
00:12:17.580Also, our guest writer who wrote and mentioned this guy had based everything they said off of him
00:12:21.720based on a Globe and Mail report that was two years old, but they're suing us just to show that
00:12:26.000they're a big, powerful, scary guy, I guess. I don't even know his motivation. It makes no sense.
00:12:30.000He literally filed no evidence, and he even filed that evidence late to the point where he owed me
00:12:34.080$1,800. But the whole thing, minus that $1,800, has still cost me over $25,000 to defend myself.
00:12:41.340So if you want to donate to that legal fund, it really helps me out. Or you could donate to my
00:12:45.160campaign, WyattClaypool.com. If you live in my area, again, WyattClaypool.com.
00:12:49.900My campaign link is in the description below. Sign up, buy a membership. Vote for me. Sign up
00:12:54.240by a membership for any good conservatives in your riding. And if you have a great conservative MP,
00:12:59.980make sure you get on their board and support them. Do not let people tell them to go soft.
00:13:04.520Anyways, that should be it for me today. Sorry that all these videos tend to turn into rants,
00:13:08.560but that's just how I operate. Have a wonderful day, you beautiful people.