The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - February 10, 2024


How the Conservatives & Poilievre Win in 2025

Hosted by
Wyatt Claypool
Mentioned
Justin Trudeau Erin O'Toole Polyev Andrew Scheer Orthodox Conservative Michael Ignatieff George Chahal Tory O'Toole Emily Bronte Turnout
NDP MP thinks children belong to the state The ticking time bomb in Justin Trudeau's government

Episode Stats


Length

13 minutes

Words per minute

196.52

Word count

2,594

Sentence count

155

Harmful content

Toxicity

9

sentences flagged

Hate speech

1

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In the past, I ve talked a lot about why I don t think Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada can win the next federal election in 2015, but rarely have I talked about the other side of that equation, which is how the Conservative Party and its candidate, Andrew Scheer, won a majority government in 2019 and 2021.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 In the past, you've heard me talk a lot about why I don't think that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada can win the next federal election in 2015.
00:00:09.400 But rarely have I talked about the other side of that equation, being how does the Conservative Party and pure poly of win a majority government?
00:00:16.400 We're still more than a year and a half away from the next federal election, and a lot could happen.
00:00:21.520 And I want to talk in pure numbers terms of what a Conservative majority government has to look like at the ballot box.
00:00:27.780 And in order to explain that, we've got to time travel back to 2015 and see how Trudeau won his majority government, and then how he held on to a minority in 2019 and 2021.
00:00:39.260 So here are the 2015 election numbers.
00:00:42.520 Turnout was way up in 2015. It was 68.3%, up from 61.1%.
00:00:48.520 This was mostly off the back that Justin Trudeau, at least to center-left Canadians, was a very charismatic leader compared to Michael Ignatieff.
00:00:55.540 So not only did he draw out a lot of Liberals who stayed home last election to vote for him, he also stole a lot of voters away from the NDP, and because, in fact, he actually is a very orange Liberal Party leader.
00:01:08.180 So he ended up getting a bunch of NDP voters to vote for him, and he got a lot of stay-home Liberals to show up in 2015.
00:01:14.380 He had 6,942,000 votes.
00:01:18.320 That gave him a very clear majority of 184 seats, which was, I believe, like 20 more or, like, 15 more than he needed.
00:01:26.120 It was a pretty comfortable majority.
00:01:28.360 And so in 2019, a lot of people think, well, Justin Trudeau rigged the next election.
00:01:32.940 He might have pulled a weird trick or whatever to make people vote for him.
00:01:36.340 Every once in a while, you get people like this who are like, he must have cheated because I hate Justin Trudeau so much.
00:01:40.680 Okay, I can tell you that Justin Trudeau did not cheat in those elections, because how did his voter counts keep going downwards after this?
00:01:49.940 In 2019, despite winning a minority government, not only did the Conservatives beat the Liberals in terms of the popular vote,
00:01:56.860 but Justin Trudeau lost more than 900,000 voters between 2015 and 2019.
00:02:03.260 Trudeau had a 6.4% reduction in his voter turnout or his popular vote totals.
00:02:09.300 That is a terrible thing for Justin Trudeau.
00:02:11.840 But because we have a very sort of liberal culture in Canada, the Liberals tend to be given a little bit more latitude to mess up than Conservatives.
00:02:21.200 So Justin Trudeau lost 900,000 votes.
00:02:24.280 And although the Conservative votes increased, it's more so that the Conservatives increased their votes in places the Conservatives were already popular in.
00:02:32.380 The Liberals lost 900,000 votes.
00:02:35.080 And we can basically expect that in order to get a majority government in Canada, at least in the last couple decades, you need 7 million votes.
00:02:43.480 But I believe since the population has gone up so much, pure poly probably needs about 7.5 million votes.
00:02:50.500 I want to go to 2021.
00:02:51.660 Again, the Conservative Party won the popular vote.
00:02:55.860 And in 2019, see that the overall voter turnout dropped by 1.3%.
00:03:01.040 Some Liberals probably stayed home.
00:03:03.140 Some Conservatives might have stayed home under the media's sort of attacks that somehow Andrew Scheer was radical.
00:03:08.440 But overall, the Conservative benefited from driving out their base a little bit more.
00:03:13.020 However, in 2021, some really bad things happened for the Conservatives under Aaron O'Toole because he was such a bad leader.
00:03:20.800 And even though Justin Trudeau, when I show you the numbers, was extremely beatable in that election, voter turnout was severely down despite it being easier than ever to vote with all the advanced voting, the mail-in votes and all that.
00:03:31.380 Look at this.
00:03:32.500 So in 2021, Justin Trudeau falls by almost another 500,000 votes between 2019 and 2021. 0.95
00:03:41.520 That's really pathetic.
00:03:42.800 But at the same time, the Conservative votes actually fell as well in terms of their overall percentage of the popular vote. 0.53
00:03:51.300 Voter turnout fell by 4.7% in 2021.
00:03:55.200 So again, while the Conservatives win the popular vote, the problem is that they basically just do not turn out their base hard enough.
00:04:03.560 Same with Trudeau.
00:04:04.660 And it's not even that Trudeau didn't turn out his base.
00:04:07.220 His base is pretty hardcore.
00:04:08.460 It's moderate voters, center-right voters who were previously voting a Liberal stayed home, but everyone seemed to stay home for both the Conservatives and the Liberals in such a way where it basically changed nothing.
00:04:20.800 Trudeau won an extra five seats, and it was mostly around that sort of GTA Vancouver donut.
00:04:25.720 They also covered a seat in Calgary with George Chahal, the Porch Pirate.
00:04:28.980 But overall, this was pretty much a completely neutral election outcome.
00:04:34.340 But look at that turnout.
00:04:36.540 Trudeau in 2021 is winning 5.5 million votes compared to 2015, where he won almost 7 million votes.
00:04:46.560 So the man's lost about 1.5 million votes between those two elections.
00:04:50.940 That's pretty insane.
00:04:51.880 It's like 1.3 million. 0.99
00:04:53.520 That's pretty pathetic. 0.76
00:04:55.220 So in my mind, for the Conservatives to win in 2025, they needed the magic numbers, I think 7.5 million votes. 0.93
00:05:04.260 And this is where I'm going to get into a little bit more strategy.
00:05:06.740 In order to get that 7.5 million votes, I think the Conservatives already have enough capture in terms of the amount of people willing to vote for them in order to achieve that number or even much higher.
00:05:19.260 The way the Conservatives could mess up right now, and I'm literally running for a Conservative Party nomination, Wyatt Claypool and Calgary Signal Hill, go vote for me, this is the riding, shameless plug.
00:05:27.820 The way that the Conservatives could hurt themselves is thinking that in order to capture even more of the electorate, we don't need more than 40% of the vote in order to win this thing.
00:05:38.260 We could win with 38% of the vote and have a majority government.
00:05:41.020 It's just the way the Canadian politics works.
00:05:42.580 I think we would maybe prefer to have 42%, 43%.
00:05:46.040 I think we can already achieve that in terms of turnout because I guarantee Liberal Party turnout and NDP turnout is going to be down because people are not impressed with how their government is performing.
00:05:57.020 In terms of the voters for those parties in the past.
00:06:00.280 But for the Conservatives to win at this point, I think that we've already found our section of voters.
00:06:06.320 All we need to do is basically play to the base in a good way, not in a toxic way where all we do is keep doubling down and trying to seem more hardcore.
00:06:14.800 Polyev is plenty orthodox Conservative.
00:06:17.160 He's a very strong Conservative, and I think he just needs to play to his strengths now of proving that he's the best critic of Justin Trudeau, but he's also a professional who should be leading this country.
00:06:26.520 He's a reformer, and we need a reformer.
00:06:29.020 That's how we drive out our base in order to hit that 43% of the popular vote and over 7.5 million votes.
00:06:36.120 The way we could screw this up, the way we could scuttle this whole thing is if certain people in the background of the party, and so far it hasn't happened, I just don't want this to happen, is we run too many Red Tories, too many Red Tories win nominations.
00:06:49.100 And this is on Conservative Party members themselves to make sure we have strong Conservatives in these writings, because if we start moderating too much, thinking that if we moderate our policy, if we water things down, maybe we can capture 45, 47, 48% in the new polls.
00:07:04.040 But the problem is, if you do that, you're going to have a lot of people think, well, what are you guys doing?
00:07:08.100 You're just abandoning your base.
00:07:09.460 We already have enough people to vote.
00:07:10.620 And then if people don't trust the Conservatives, the Conservative base doesn't trust them, that's when voter turnout could fall again.
00:07:18.000 Pure Polly basically has to learn from the mistakes of Aaron O'Toole, although I don't think it was really mistakes on Aaron O'Toole's part.
00:07:25.060 He just exposed himself as a Liberal before the 21 election.
00:07:28.560 He has to learn from the mistakes more so of Andrew Scheer and say that actually when everyone does not like Trudeau and your own base likes you, you've got to drive the base out.
00:07:39.620 In the 21 and 2019 elections, and even frankly in the 2015 elections, the Conservatives forgot who they were and started trying to drive out people to vote for them who are not traditional Conservative voters.
00:07:51.820 And so our own traditional Conservative voters felt like they were not being properly serviced like they should be.
00:07:56.800 And so they were just like, well, why am I going to show up?
00:07:59.640 You seem to have forgotten me.
00:08:01.180 And so what the Conservative Party needs to do is do not forget your voters, stick to the plan, stay the course, and then keep banging the drum on the issues that you're good at.
00:08:10.660 Do not shift in order to capture another community that's not right now voting for you.
00:08:15.080 Do not shift in order to think that you're going to capture a big center-left vote.
00:08:18.940 By doing that, you're only going to lose more votes on your right flank.
00:08:22.400 We are in a perfect position to win, and to get that 7.5 million votes, we just need to focus on turnout.
00:08:29.640 We just need to focus on campaigns and turnout.
00:08:32.400 Nothing about convincing anyone new.
00:08:34.520 We already have everyone we need.
00:08:36.460 And obviously, fight for your ideals.
00:08:39.120 Do not water down your policy.
00:08:40.840 Explain why your policy is better.
00:08:42.820 But we don't need to shift on policy in order to capture anyone new.
00:08:46.120 We got it.
00:08:46.780 And that's why I'm, frankly, running for the Conservative Party nomination, Calgary-Signal Hill, another shameless plug.
00:08:52.500 If you live in this area of Calgary, it's on West Calgary, this is what the riding boundaries will look like after the redistribution of boundaries in April for new ridings in Alberta.
00:09:01.580 If you live in this riding, buy a membership to vote for me, number one on your ballot.
00:09:05.000 Because if we have red Tories, like there are a ton of, running in my area of Calgary-Signal Hill,
00:09:10.260 if we have red Tories start to occupy these empty Conservative nominations in these ridings that we want to win,
00:09:15.940 we actually do run the risk of a bunch of people saying,
00:09:19.100 OK, I like Polyev, but what's this pro-lockdown person doing here?
00:09:22.700 Not just, in general, they didn't say enough during the lockdown periods.
00:09:27.220 I don't exactly blame too many politicians for not doing enough.
00:09:30.140 But the people who are hardcore pro-lockdown, we do not want them.
00:09:33.260 If they are pro-censorship, like they've been in the past, I have some pro-censorship people running in my area.
00:09:38.640 If these people get in, even in safe ridings, they could have a knock-on effect in ridings or swing ridings and say,
00:09:44.120 well, I like Polyev, but why is the pro-lockdown person here?
00:09:47.100 Why is this obvious red Tory, this hyper-social-progressive-liberal running in my area as a Conservative?
00:09:52.540 That's how we could find ourselves falling short by 1,500 votes in this riding,
00:09:57.480 by 2,000 votes in that riding, by 500 votes in that riding.
00:10:00.360 The GTA donut is going to be all about turning out our base,
00:10:04.440 not finding a Liberal base to turn out, turning out our own base.
00:10:08.180 So we've got to stay the course, stay focused.
00:10:10.440 This is why I encourage all of you, buy a Conservative membership, no matter what riding you're in,
00:10:16.900 get on the board, make sure you influence the party board to stay the course,
00:10:20.700 stay Orthodox Conservative, and vote in good, strong Conservatives in nominations if they're open.
00:10:26.760 Find the person who is the most pro-freedom, who is the best critic of Justin Trudeau,
00:10:31.180 who is not just a flaky fiscal Conservative who wants to maybe get rid of the carbon tax and that's it.
00:10:35.920 You want someone who actually challenges Trudeau on all the issues, or you run the risk of having
00:10:41.340 your own voter base in those areas saying, well, why should I reward you with a seat if you're not 0.98
00:10:46.320 actually opposing Trudeau on all of his crap? You're just saying, well, I don't like the carbon tax. 0.97
00:10:51.620 That's not enough. It needs to be more than a carbon tax election. So far,
00:10:55.380 Polyev's been doing a good job. He's been hard on crime. He's been wanting more military spending.
00:11:00.140 He's been wanting to get woke stuff out of government institutions. He's opposed gender 0.96
00:11:04.660 theory and gender conversion. Fantastic. That is how we make sure the base knows we're real
00:11:09.680 and make sure that they know that we're not going to abandon them the way O'Toole did.
00:11:14.440 So much of the Conservatives' work since 2021 has been proving we're not the O'Toole party.
00:11:19.480 The red Tory O'Toole era is over. In order to keep it closed, we need to make sure that we have good
00:11:25.740 non-O'Toole Tories representing us in our ridings. So again, Calgary Signal Hill,
00:11:31.480 if you live in Calgary, I urge you, every video I put up, there's at least 300 people watching me
00:11:36.620 from my riding. Check which riding you live in. Buy a membership. Vote for me number one. Vote for
00:11:42.200 good Conservatives in your nominations, regardless of what area you are in. If you're in Burlington,
00:11:47.580 Emily Brown's a fantastic Conservative. Check which riding you live in. If there's an open nomination,
00:11:52.120 figure out who's running and ask them real questions, figure out who the real Conservative
00:11:56.440 is. Anyways, that should be it for me today. I also have my usual legal fundraising link in the
00:12:03.040 description below. Myself, the National Telegraph, in the stupid defamation suit because Alberta does 0.98
00:12:07.940 not have anti-slap laws. So this guy suing us has been dragging out this dumb lawsuit claiming we 0.99
00:12:12.880 defamed him with no evidence. We provide tons of evidence that everything we said was true.
00:12:17.580 Also, our guest writer who wrote and mentioned this guy had based everything they said off of him
00:12:21.720 based on a Globe and Mail report that was two years old, but they're suing us just to show that
00:12:26.000 they're a big, powerful, scary guy, I guess. I don't even know his motivation. It makes no sense.
00:12:30.000 He literally filed no evidence, and he even filed that evidence late to the point where he owed me
00:12:34.080 $1,800. But the whole thing, minus that $1,800, has still cost me over $25,000 to defend myself.
00:12:41.340 So if you want to donate to that legal fund, it really helps me out. Or you could donate to my
00:12:45.160 campaign, WyattClaypool.com. If you live in my area, again, WyattClaypool.com.
00:12:49.900 My campaign link is in the description below. Sign up, buy a membership. Vote for me. Sign up
00:12:54.240 by a membership for any good conservatives in your riding. And if you have a great conservative MP,
00:12:59.980 make sure you get on their board and support them. Do not let people tell them to go soft.
00:13:04.520 Anyways, that should be it for me today. Sorry that all these videos tend to turn into rants,
00:13:08.560 but that's just how I operate. Have a wonderful day, you beautiful people.