The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - May 27, 2024


Is Pierre Poilievre turning Toronto Blue？ (Trudeau in trouble)


Episode Stats

Length

14 minutes

Words per Minute

197.78378

Word Count

2,832

Sentence Count

160

Misogynist Sentences

2

Hate Speech Sentences

7


Summary

In this episode, I talk about how the federal election results in 2019 are not good for the Liberal Party of Canada, and why they need to go all in on winning in order to keep Justin Trudeau in office. I also talk about the fact that the country is getting worse and worse every single year under the Trudeau Liberals, and how they should be worried about what s going on in the next election.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 It's just taken for granted in Canada that the city of Toronto votes for the Liberal Party of
00:00:05.220 Canada. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, in the past three election cycles, can just assume that 25
00:00:11.700 seats in Toronto are going to go his way, same with Montreal, and that he can focus on different
00:00:17.060 parts of the country for toss-up ridings to win to try and cobble together some form of a government.
00:00:22.840 Pierre Polyev, the leader of the Conservative Party, even remarked last year, if people in
00:00:27.860 Toronto are wondering how the country keeps getting worse every single year under Prime
00:00:32.180 Minister Justin Trudeau's leadership, they should maybe reevaluate how they actually choose to vote
00:00:37.080 in these federal elections. And maybe he's rubbed off on them a little bit, or maybe it's just that
00:00:41.900 people don't like Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at all these days. It doesn't matter how progressive
00:00:46.720 you are living in the city of Toronto. Eventually, you actually need to eat food and pay rent,
00:00:51.320 and the Justin Trudeau Liberals' high spending and taxes aren't helping you do that whatsoever.
00:00:56.820 And now it looks like out of the 25, it might be 26 ridings now after redistributions were made,
00:01:03.320 there's a significant portion of these ridings that are either going to go to the Conservative Party
00:01:08.000 of Canada, or they are big toss-ups between the Liberals' NDP and the Conservatives, or they're
00:01:13.840 going towards the NDP, which in the Conservatives' book is a good thing. It's better to weaken the
00:01:18.520 Liberals and pass it off to Jagmeet Singh's incompetent party, although in a certain sense,
00:01:22.880 I don't really believe the NDP are going to pull out any of these ridings. They're such a broke
00:01:26.960 party. Their get-out-the-vote efforts are going to be abysmally terrible. But I want to go through
00:01:31.960 some of the ridings now for you here today. Obviously, I'm not going to go through all 25
00:01:36.120 ridings. Many of these ridings are still solidly Liberal, but the fact that any of them are going
00:01:41.680 Conservative should be keeping Justin Trudeau up at night. So I'm going to start off here. We have
00:01:47.300 Toronto St. Paul. Toronto St. Paul is actually the riding. There is a by-election coming up in
00:01:52.000 June, or I believe early July. The current projections from 338 and these projections
00:01:57.760 are based off how the riding voted last time, fundraising, as well as current polling projections.
00:02:04.920 So this could be wrong, but it's generally accurate to the way that they know that people
00:02:09.480 have voted in the past. And if anything, I think that a lot of these ridings are going to more
00:02:13.540 significantly favour the Conservatives when you add in the fact that a lot of Liberal voters in
00:02:18.360 Toronto are going to know in the next election Trudeau has no chance of being re-elected.
00:02:22.000 So a lot of them are probably either going to stay home or maybe vote Green or NDP if they're
00:02:26.320 super progressives and they just want to vote their conscience or something like that, knowing that
00:02:30.460 the Liberals can actually form government. But when we see Toronto St. Paul, this is a riding where
00:02:35.620 easily this was a 100% chance for the Liberals to win in 2021, 2019, and 2015.
00:02:43.540 Now we are seeing there's an 18% shot that Conservatives could pick this riding up.
00:02:48.400 And if the Conservatives fight hard enough in this by-election, maybe they don't want to spend too
00:02:51.940 much money so they won't push it too much right now, they could pick up this seat.
00:02:56.380 Another seat, we have Spadina Harbourfront. This is the riding that is currently being held by
00:03:00.800 Independent MP Kevin Vong, elected as a Liberal but kicked out over a fake sexual assault scandal,
00:03:07.180 mostly because the Liberals know that Justin Trudeau is a touchy guy, so they wanted to throw
00:03:11.320 Kevin under the bus for something he didn't do in order to sort of protect Justin Trudeau.
00:03:16.440 Even this riding, which mind you, I believe in 2021, there was like 15% of people, maybe 20% of
00:03:23.440 people who voted Conservative in this riding. They now project the Conservatives could get 29% of the
00:03:27.820 vote and are in a three-way split race between the NDP themselves and the Liberals.
00:03:33.680 Another riding, this is University Rosedale. This is still solidly Liberal, but I just wanted to point
00:03:38.960 this one out because if you know, this is Chrystia Freeland's riding, our current Finance Minister
00:03:44.140 and Deputy Prime Minister. She is projected to potentially only get 37% of the vote, the NDP
00:03:50.120 getting 29% and the Conservatives 24%, giving her an only confidence ratio of 94%. I don't think that
00:03:57.860 she can lose because if there's a chance she could lose, she'll rip in volunteers from all over the city
00:04:02.740 to protect her and throw other ridings to the dogs. But the fact that she is in a position where an
00:04:08.860 incumbent minister is in that bad of a place is hilarious to me, especially Chrystia Freeland,
00:04:15.700 one of the most celebrated figures in the Liberal Party, someone who shouldn't be celebrated but
00:04:20.040 is regardless. Here's a Conservative one that's a likely Conservative gain, York Centre. This is Yara
00:04:26.900 Sachs is riding, the lady who went and went to go shake a terrorist hand in the West Bank not too
00:04:31.780 long ago. At the same time, she, as a Jewish woman herself, wouldn't even walk a Jewish boy to school
00:04:37.860 after there was an incident of other kids throwing rocks at him for being Jewish, the independent MP
00:04:43.460 for the riding of Spadina Harbourfront. I think it's still called Spadina Fort York right now.
00:04:47.740 Kevin Vong actually showed up because she wouldn't show up. I hope that actually the Conservative Party
00:04:52.620 invites Kevin Vong into caucus. He really has earned it, fighting back against carbon taxes,
00:04:57.820 made terrorism, anti-Semitism, and all that other crazy stuff that the Liberals have decided not to
00:05:02.940 care about whatsoever. Now we have this riding, Toronto Danforth. Toronto Danforth is now a three-way
00:05:09.260 split riding where any party could potentially win. And yes, they are saying that the Conservatives are
00:05:14.620 only at 25%, but added in the fact that there's going to be an inevitability feeling with the Conservative
00:05:20.320 Party, there's going to be a lot of people bandwagoning over. This is a riding, again,
00:05:24.640 that was a 100% chance of the Liberals winning in the last election. They scuffed this riding hard
00:05:30.520 because of all the foreign interference that took place with Handong obviously probably being a front
00:05:36.480 for the CCP government in China, pushing forward plans to not release the two Michaels just because
00:05:42.600 it would help the Liberals or to release them at a specific time in order to help the Liberals in the
00:05:47.200 election. That hurt them badly. And just because Toronto voters are progressive doesn't mean that
00:05:52.060 they are literally in favor of the CCP government, especially Chinese voters are very much not in
00:05:57.580 favor of the CCP. And now that the interference has been exposed, it's very unlikely that the CCP is
00:06:03.180 going to be able to manipulate and intimidate Chinese Canadians into voting for the Liberal Party
00:06:08.020 because their games are exposed and it's going to be very easy to report them next time.
00:06:12.000 Here's this riding, Don Valley North. This is actually Handong's riding, but I was talking
00:06:17.200 before just about the general issues that have happened in Danforth. Oh, I messed that up. Danforth.
00:06:24.060 I'm so sorry, guys. Don Valley North is the Handong riding. Danforth North was the riding that had the
00:06:30.080 terrorist attack happen. That riding is shifting for different reasons. But we have Don Valley North,
00:06:35.700 and this is because of Handong. It is now a 43% chance that the Conservatives could pick up this
00:06:40.820 riding. I think it's probably better than that because I severely doubt that the NDP is only going
00:06:45.520 to be able to pull off 10% in this area. Then we have Willowdale, another current Liberal seat.
00:06:51.920 All the seats are current Liberals, where they are showing a likely CPC gain, 43% Conservatives to 38%
00:06:59.460 Liberal. And then we have Don Valley West here with the Conservatives. This is where I was confused
00:07:06.360 because I knew that I had two Don Valley West ridings I was going to highlight here. And then
00:07:10.360 I read Danforth wrong. I'm sorry, I'm not Torontonian, so I don't remember the stuff.
00:07:14.160 But we have Don Valley West, which is only leaning Liberal, with them projecting it as 47% Liberal to
00:07:20.480 39% Conservative, 11% chance for the Conservatives to pick that up. Enough door knocking, enough spending
00:07:26.520 on advertising, and enough visits by Pure Poly could easily gird up that riding and make it a far better
00:07:31.320 chance to win. Then we have Etobicoke Centre. That's just a runaway victory for the Conservatives
00:07:36.580 with an 81% chance of picking up this riding. That is kind of the Doug Ford, that's kind of like a big
00:07:43.420 Doug Ford, Rob Ford area. It has a history of voting Conservative in the past provincially, so I could see
00:07:48.900 this being an easy pickup for Pure Poly, even though Doug Ford himself is fairly Liberal these days.
00:07:54.240 But it demonstrates that people are willing to vote blue in these regions. And then we have Etobicoke
00:07:59.600 Lakeshore, which is actually closer to city centre, but it still has a 75% chance of going for the
00:08:05.580 Conservative Party of Canada, 42 to 38. And again, a lot of these ridings, I don't believe that the NDP
00:08:11.600 is only going to grab 14%. There is going to be a bit of people jumping to safety from the Liberals
00:08:17.880 and voting NDP because the Liberals can't win, so why not at least vote for the more purest progressive
00:08:22.940 party? That's the funny thing. The Liberals can lose progressive votes to Jagmeet Singh. Doesn't matter
00:08:26.960 how incompetent the man is. The problem for Jagmeet Singh is that his party is the more
00:08:33.040 progressive party. So if Justin Trudeau is going down in flames, you might have progressive symbolically
00:08:37.900 vote NDP, or people who are like hyper pro-Palestine, i.e. Hamas, might end up going and voting for the
00:08:45.100 NDP or the Greens, depending on the district they're in, hurting the Liberals with 3 to 4% of their base in
00:08:50.980 these ridings that they desperately need to show up for them. And it's not just Toronto. Here is some of
00:08:56.440 the ridings out in the Brampton area. Brampton is having a couple of ridings leaning conservative
00:09:02.320 at the moment and a few toss-ups. This is an area that all the ridings were safe seats back in 21.
00:09:08.080 Here's Mississauga. Actually, a majority of the ridings in Mississauga are leaning towards the
00:09:13.320 Liberals, with Mississauga Lakeshore actually being a conservative likely seat despite it being currently
00:09:17.980 held by a Liberal. This is the death of the Liberal Party. The fact that you're even having to talk
00:09:23.960 about defending the Peel region and the city of Toronto hard means that they're not going to have
00:09:28.940 the money available to go out in southwestern Ontario, to go out into more rural, suburban
00:09:34.200 Ontario ridings to try and fight for those. They're not going to be able to dominate in Manitoba,
00:09:39.460 certain Manitoba ridings the way they have in the past. They're going to have to just stick to
00:09:42.880 Winnipeg. And even Winnipeg's kind of divide up with the NDP these days. It's hard to define what a
00:09:47.820 good Liberal stronghold is. Toronto technically is still a stronghold. They might get 18 out of the
00:09:53.360 25 seats. But again, if you're Justin Trudeau, you need 100% of those seats. Same thing in
00:09:59.480 Montreal. Yes, they will basically sweep all Montreal. But the fact they could lose Anthony
00:10:04.820 Housefather's ridings and another one, a terrible situation for them. You can't lose a single
00:10:10.020 riding in those areas. That's why the Maritimes is going to be a slaughter for the Liberals. They
00:10:16.160 could lose potentially 100% of the seats in certain Maritime provinces, despite the Maritimes voting
00:10:21.700 100% Liberal in terms of seat count in the 2015 election. And they held on to it for the most
00:10:28.660 part in 2019 and 21. And now the Conservatives could sweep the vast majority of the seats in
00:10:33.920 the Maritimes. Again, these are areas where the Liberals used to take them for granted because they
00:10:39.180 needed to run the score up to get at least over 100 seats, 125 seats in these safe areas. And then
00:10:45.920 they could kind of cobble together like a seat here in Calgary, seat here in Edmonton, a few seats here
00:10:50.920 around Vancouver, one in Vancouver Island. They kind of like piece it together. They need a couple
00:10:55.900 territories. That's how the Liberals used to win in the past. Now that they're even having to think
00:11:00.640 about spending more time in Toronto means that the party is on life support. There's no way for them
00:11:05.960 to come back and they know it. They had some fundraisers recently. And it's not like yesterday,
00:11:11.440 but it was a few months ago in Vancouver, in Toronto, where it was empty rooms for Justin Trudeau.
00:11:16.960 It was like a couple hundred people, not even a couple hundred, I think it was like 70 people at
00:11:21.440 a Vancouver fundraiser. That's a big city for the Liberals for the most part. They had Toronto
00:11:26.180 fundraisers, 150 people showing up in a ballroom that could have had a thousand if it wanted.
00:11:30.700 People don't have confidence in Trudeau. His donors don't have confidence. There's no way he can cheat.
00:11:35.780 There's no foreign interference he can pull off. He couldn't, even if he granted every permanent
00:11:40.560 resident in Canada, full citizenship, any permanent resident before election day was given full
00:11:45.480 citizenship and allowed to vote, wouldn't go to his favor. Indian Canadians who are a large portion
00:11:50.420 of permanent residents don't like the Liberals at all. Look at the polling for the provincial
00:11:54.820 conservatives in British Columbia, and they're cleaning up with Indian voters over the United
00:12:00.900 Party, which used to be the Liberals and the NDP. Same thing is happening across the country in favor
00:12:06.260 of the federal conservatives. A lot of these demographic groups, a lot of immigrant groups are heavily
00:12:10.540 represented in small business ownership and other trades. They don't like the anti-small business
00:12:15.840 Liberals or the NDP. They're going conservative. It doesn't matter if you are the one who granted them
00:12:20.820 the permanent residency and the citizenship in the first place. Even they need to be able to actually put
00:12:26.080 food on the table, so they're not going to be like, have someone jangle keys in their face and say,
00:12:30.220 well, we brought you into the country technically. That's insulting to them. And when I go around
00:12:34.800 campaigning in my own riding, again, shameless plug, I'm Wyatt Claypool running for the federal
00:12:39.200 conservative party nomination, Calgary Signal Hill. Permanent residents, people who only arrived
00:12:43.680 in the country a year ago, will tell me immigration is too high. The idea that they were brought into
00:12:48.480 the country is not going to be something persuasive for getting them to continue voting for the carbon
00:12:53.420 tax and other stuff like that. They will vote conservative. Union members are voting conservative.
00:12:57.840 Middle class people are voting conservative. Conservatives are dominating with both men and women.
00:13:02.280 There's not a way for the Liberals to piece together a new coalition in time because there's no
00:13:07.160 demographics left for them to add to their coalition. They're literally losing every single religious
00:13:13.040 minority. There's not a minority of religious minority that they do well with. I think they're
00:13:17.980 even losing with atheists and agnostic voters. You're done. Justin Trudeau cannot win.
00:13:26.080 Anyways, that should be it for me today, guys. If you want to donate to my legal fund, it's the
00:13:31.200 GiveSendGo link in the description of this video below. We're being sued by a Chinese billionaire
00:13:35.480 for no particular reason. After two and a half years of this case going on since December of 2021,
00:13:41.060 he still hasn't actually given any evidence over as to how we defamed him. He just simply says it.
00:13:46.860 And we're having to fight this out in court because he just keeps throwing more paperwork at us to try
00:13:50.660 and make us incur costs. It cost me personally more than $29,000. And I don't even count a small
00:13:56.820 amounts of outside money that I've gotten from other people as well. So if you can donate anything to
00:14:00.920 that, it really helps me out. And if you happen to live in the riding of Calgary Signal Hill,
00:14:04.800 vote for me number one on your ballot. Vote for Michael Kim number two. We want the most conservative
00:14:09.160 people representing these conservative ridings, not simply party guys looking for a new seat to fill
00:14:14.260 after they lost their provincial election. Anyways, that's it for me today. Have a good one.