The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Is the Liberal polling surge real or a Red mirage？ (Canadian polling analysis)

00:00:00.000 Right now, in conservative circles across Canada, there is a panic setting in over the idea that if the Federal Liberal Party of Canada simply swaps out Prime Minister Justin Trudeau with Mark Carney, that they are going to become very competitive with Pierre Polyev's conservatives in the 2025 federal election.

00:00:19.740 I am here today to tell you that this is not realistic. I see the current rise in the polls among many pollsters for the Liberals as being more of a polling mirage than a real surge in tangible support.

00:00:34.140 I'm going to teach you what a response bias is here today. I'm not exactly a polling expert, but I think a lot of people who even are polling experts themselves are forgetting about the concept of a response bias.

00:00:46.940 A response bias happens when there's a big shake-up in politics that causes one side to become far more engaged and excited and willing to take polls than their opposition.

00:00:59.000 Before we get into Canadian examples, let's just look at the United States.

00:01:03.720 This is Donald Trump versus Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential election.

00:01:08.960 Usually, Republicans actually tend to trail the Democrat in polling.

00:01:14.240 It's just one of those response biases that tends to happen when Republicans have a lot of farmers and plumbers and tradespeople who vote for them,

00:01:21.600 and Democrats have a lot of office workers with more time on their hands to take polls.

00:01:25.440 But Trump was absolutely wrecking Biden.

00:01:28.180 Around here, this big dip is when the assassination attempt happened, and Trump rocketed into the high 40s, and Biden was down along the mid to low 40s.

00:01:37.360 It was absolutely insane.

00:01:39.200 But once the Democrats swapped out Biden with Kamala Harris, she started quickly rising.

00:01:45.800 In fact, at one point, she actually had a 49.3 to 47.1 average lead over Donald Trump.

00:01:54.220 It was pretty big.

00:01:55.620 And even at the very end of the race, she still technically had an average polling lead over Trump.

00:02:02.040 The problem is that this is a response bias.

00:02:05.900 Democrats were extremely depressed to have Joe Biden as their presidential candidate.

00:02:12.200 So once he was swapped out for literally anyone, and I think Kamala Harris basically represents the idea that who do we want as the candidate?

00:02:20.460 Just put in anyone.

00:02:21.780 So they throw in Kamala Harris, and then she quickly rises. 1.00

00:02:25.120 Did her actual support rise across the country?

00:02:27.620 I would say no.

00:02:29.520 What happened were Democrats, who were very unlikely to pick up the phone and actually say they're voting for Joe Biden, suddenly became excited because they didn't have Joe Biden leading the party anymore.

00:02:40.380 And they'd basically pick up the phone to tell you they would be voting for any Democrat that wasn't Joe Biden.

00:02:44.960 In fact, I make the argument still that I think Joe Biden would have done better in the presidential election than Kamala Harris.

00:02:52.340 I think Kamala Harris just allowed for that very quick bout of excitement to be added back into the party. 1.00

00:02:58.000 But overall, she was a far worse candidate with worse name recognition and likability ratings and all that stuff. 0.99

00:03:04.800 But now, let's go to some Canadian examples, because there's a new Leger pullout that shows that if Carney is the leader of the Liberals, suddenly he's going to be at parity with Polyev's Conservatives.

00:03:17.460 I'm going to go into why this doesn't make sense in just a second.

00:03:20.440 But first, guys, like the video, subscribe to the channel if you're not yet a subscriber.

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00:03:46.200 Do all that great stuff.

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00:03:48.760 Anyways, let's go on to the Leger poll.

00:03:52.060 We don't need to see the top line polls, or I guess it's technically included here.

00:03:55.720 You see that if Trudeau is still the leader of the party, the Liberals poll around 31%, the Conservatives poll 40%, Bloc Québécois 7%, the NDP 14%.

00:04:06.740 I think really the story in so much of the polling these days is that Jagmeet Singh is a horrible NDP leader, and he is siphoning off support to the Liberals, even though nobody likes the Liberals.

00:04:18.200 It's just that if Trudeau is not the leader, people would rather vote for the—if Trudeau is not the leader, a lot of NDPers would rather go and vote for the Liberal under the idea that maybe they can stop Polyev. 0.70

00:04:30.140 Although that's not really how politics works, and the vast majority of average voters don't really strategically vote that way.

00:04:36.360 But the middle line is the one that is scaring so many Conservatives right now.

00:04:41.480 It shows that if Mark Carney is the Liberal Party leader, he's at 37%, Polyev's Conservatives are at 37%, Bloc at 6%, NDP 12%, Greens 5%, PPC 2%, other two.

00:04:54.100 Now, my first flag on the field for saying I don't believe these polls is why, when you put Chrystia Freeland as the leader, are the dynamics so much different?

00:05:04.740 Because the thing is that what I'm thinking of what's happening with Mark Carney right now is a lot of people just simply, you know, find him—like, they just simply consider him like a blank slate.

00:05:17.400 And because so few people know who Mark Carney is, it's basically saying—basically imagine he's an ideal Liberal leader.

00:05:23.920 He's like Jean Chrétien. Who would you vote for?

00:05:26.400 And I would say Jean Chrétien would actually be a tough customer for Pierre Polyev to beat.

00:05:30.260 But once you swap in Chrystia Freeland, Liberals are only at 28%.

00:05:33.960 In fact, they're actually doing worse than Justin Trudeau.

00:05:37.340 And what you'll notice is actually the amount of people being polled goes down between the leaders.

00:05:41.860 So I think what you're also having is more people are hanging up the phone as the poll's going on for Freeland.

00:05:48.400 But really, Freeland is 11 points down on the Conservatives.

00:05:51.660 But Carney is parity?

00:05:53.660 That, again, doesn't make sense to me because when the race first started for the leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, Carney had a name recognition rating of 25%.

00:06:05.680 If we're being generous, super generous, let's say he's doubled it.

00:06:10.700 Really, once you double Carney's name recognition, he's going to poll at parity with Polyev, who actually has a net positive approval rating.

00:06:18.820 And at this point has a name recognition rating of probably above 90%.

00:06:23.160 And a lot of people sincerely like him.

00:06:26.540 The problem with Carney and the problem with basically every single Liberal leadership candidate, including Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister, is they don't have any real fans.

00:06:35.020 They simply have people who like them relative to how much they hate Pierre Polyev.

00:06:40.560 And so Carney clocking in here at a 37% makes it feel like he's being polled like a generic Liberal.

00:06:48.660 This happened a lot with Kamala Harris, is that nobody really knew much about her. 0.93

00:06:54.560 They didn't know what she did in government. 0.99

00:06:56.080 They didn't know what she accomplished as vice president. 1.00

00:06:58.400 And Carney's the same way.

00:07:00.000 Some people know he used to be the Bank of Canada governor, the Bank of England governor.

00:07:03.820 But past that, eh, they'll assume he's a good guy.

00:07:08.400 They'll assume that he was part of the success of Canada weathering.

00:07:12.840 The market crash in 2008 secretly had like nothing to do with that.

00:07:16.380 It was mostly Harper's good decision making. 0.86

00:07:18.460 Do you really think that the fiscal policies of the Liberals would have gotten us through the 2008 crash better than the Conservatives?

00:07:25.400 Because Carney has signaled that his ideal form of government is the Liberals because he's been the economic advisor for years.

00:07:31.700 Which, again, is something that probably less than 20% of Canadians know and would feed into a lot of people growing to hate him.

00:07:38.960 So right now, Carney is in the Oprah Winfrey stage of his polling.

00:07:44.420 Nobody really knows anything about him.

00:07:46.160 All they hear is positive stuff because he's not been a political figure until like the last year.

00:07:51.060 And now, all of the skeletons are going to come pouring out of the closet.

00:07:56.080 His backing of the Century Initiative wanting the population of Canada to be 100 million by 2050.

00:08:01.340 Him backing central bank digital currencies.

00:08:03.700 Him wanting to phase out oil and gas in favor of solar and wind.

00:08:07.220 Him being in favor of UBI.

00:08:09.460 The man is a basket case of terrible liberal party policies.

00:08:13.420 And he's been in a decision-making position, in fact, in a more real way than with somebody like Freeland.

00:08:22.640 I even want to just go down to the crossbars of this Leger poll.

00:08:25.920 When you have Mark Carney as the Liberal Party leader, the thing is, where he starts doing really well is Atlantic Canada.

00:08:33.400 But that's with an unweighted frequency of people voting at 78.

00:08:37.940 That's very low in terms of the regionals.

00:08:41.160 Overall, the regionals aren't great here.

00:08:42.840 I tend to like, even though I think Main Street's Ontario federal polling isn't quite accurate.

00:08:48.340 Because once you start asking people first provincial questions, then you go into federal questions.

00:08:52.540 All the real federal conservatives who hate Ford already have hung up the phone.

00:08:56.280 So it's not accurate.

00:08:57.220 But when Main Street does a federal poll, they actually still have like 950 people polled in Ontario.

00:09:03.760 This Leger poll has 515.

00:09:05.960 And Mark Carney is doing really well in Ontario based on this poll.

00:09:09.820 But then when you go to like, you go to a place like BC, he's doing 41%.

00:09:14.440 Alberta, Carney's punching 23%.

00:09:17.160 Manitoba, Saskatchewan, 28%.

00:09:18.820 That's a little bit more realistic with Winnipeg as a big Labour, Liberal, NDP voting center.

00:09:24.760 But I don't really see in Atlantic Canada, Carney jumping to 46% as realistic.

00:09:29.740 And many of the sample sizes, like 125 in BC, 114 in Alberta, and Ontario 515 is really not all that big.

00:09:40.020 This is me nitpicking a little bit.

00:09:42.280 The main thing here is its response bias.

00:09:45.380 The Liberals were carrying around the buponic-plagued corpse of Justin Trudeau for months to over a year of people wanting him to go and he won't go.

00:09:53.540 So Liberals are getting depressed.

00:09:55.020 So I would probably ballpark it that if you're a Liberal who gets a call for a poll, you are probably half as likely or maybe like two-thirds as likely to take that poll as a federal Conservative supporter.

00:10:06.680 So not only are there more federal Conservatives, but they're also more likely to take the polls.

00:10:11.780 And the fact that most of the polling, when you don't put in Mark Carney's name, still shows the Conservatives above 40% is pretty massive for the Conservatives.

00:10:21.800 Even with all of this excitement, the Conservatives haven't fallen down to the mid-30s.

00:10:26.360 The Conservatives are at the 40s.

00:10:28.140 And I really doubt, even with as bad of a leader as Jagmeet Singh is, that he's actually going to keep floundering around that awful 11% to 12% mark.

00:10:38.340 The NDP, to be frank, is a bit of a cult.

00:10:42.420 The NDP is hard to push below 15% or 14%.

00:10:45.600 Even with as bad as Jagmeet Singh is, with his anti-Trump rhetoric, he is going to pick up some support.

00:10:52.240 By the way, before I move on to what David Colletto at Angus Abacus Data has been showing,

00:10:57.740 I want to show the issue polling for the Leger poll.

00:11:01.260 There is an issue poll in here that I think also demonstrates the extent that a response bias is actually affecting these right now, affecting the poll results.

00:11:13.460 I hope it's here.

00:11:14.600 If it's not, I know what they still were.

00:11:18.500 It might not be here.

00:11:20.200 Okay, it doesn't matter.

00:11:21.160 I knew what it was vaguely, and you guys don't need to know the exact numbers.

00:11:24.800 But the Leger poll, or at least another poll that was asking people about what issues they care about, I believe it was Nanos.

00:11:31.040 That's why I don't have it on hand.

00:11:32.840 Nanos showed, which was another pollster showing the liberals getting quite close to the conservatives,

00:11:37.480 it showed the second most popular issue for the election after economics, which the economy is always the top issue, pretty much.

00:11:45.420 Even during COVID, the economy was the top issue.

00:11:47.820 But in this new Nanos poll, the second biggest issue is Trump.

00:11:52.960 And I know there's a lot of anti-American Canadians who basically vote to be different than the Americans.

00:11:59.240 I am hyper-liberal and hyper-progressive because I'm not an American.

00:12:02.380 It's never going to be a number two issue.

00:12:04.600 It's like whenever we see environment suddenly becoming a number two issue in Canadian politics.

00:12:09.940 Come election time, people are not going to be voting that way.

00:12:12.800 Trump, because of the trade war and the tariffs, may be a big issue.

00:12:17.680 Around election time, people are going to start talking about health care, the economy, crime, foreign policy.

00:12:24.320 Trump is going to probably fall down to a 5% or lower issue for most people.

00:12:29.280 And again, that issue, the fact that people consider Trump to be a very pro-liberal type issue,

00:12:35.320 is again, I think, the more of a product of a response bias than what people really think.

00:12:39.980 Because if you ask people if they actually think the liberals are doing a good job, you know, opposing the tariffs

00:12:47.020 or actually basically positioning Canada against the U.S., most people would say they're doing a bad job.

00:12:53.980 And Carney being in office, if he becomes the prime minister, is only going to disprove the idea that he's going to be better at dealing with Trump than Pierre Polyev.

00:13:03.180 Polyev has been doing great work, saying that he wants to establish a military base in Coluitt,

00:13:08.100 ramp up military spending in general.

00:13:10.920 He wants to create east-west pipelines, basically hammering them through, I hope, using the notwithstanding clause,

00:13:17.060 because we deserve it at this point.

00:13:18.780 I'm from Alberta, so this really does matter to me.

00:13:21.080 But a lot of what Polyev is doing is very practical.

00:13:24.480 And what Carney is doing is the very wishy-washy, ethereal type,

00:13:29.060 we're going to be very strong, patriotic Canadians, and we're going to unite along Team Canada.

00:13:34.820 His actual idea on energy, because we do actually import a lot of oil and gas products from America,

00:13:41.240 outside of Western Canada, and his idea is instead of getting those pipelines built that Polyev wants to build,

00:13:48.780 we need more wind farms.

00:13:50.800 We need more solar farms.

00:13:52.520 And it's like, my goodness, this is like Trudeau on steroids.

00:13:57.220 That's the problem, too.

00:13:58.600 The Conservatives, if they do want to stay ahead, and I still think they are definitely ahead right now,

00:14:03.580 although, you know, things could change if they make mistakes.

00:14:06.200 By the way, guys, stop messing with nominations inside the Conservative Party.

00:14:09.880 You are ticking off some of your best volunteers.

00:14:12.620 Again, guys, by the way, I was kicked out of the Calgary-Signal Hill Conservative Party nomination,

00:14:17.900 because I was probably going to win, because I had, like, a thousand supporters,

00:14:21.980 and, like, the next people had, like, you know, mid-hundreds or something like that.

00:14:26.200 It wasn't great.

00:14:27.480 That's how you tick off a lot of volunteers.

00:14:29.180 That's a small aside, though.

00:14:30.460 Guys, keep the nominations pure, because if you are trying to stop the surging candidate in favor of a lesser person,

00:14:37.540 you're going to have lesser quality candidates.

00:14:39.540 I don't know how else I can explain this.

00:14:41.540 But they need to be decisively going after the fact that if you have Mark Carney as Prime Minister,

00:14:45.740 you are going to basically get a more efficient Trudeau,

00:14:49.080 in the sense that every single bad, crappy, like, privacy-violating policy

00:14:53.900 is going to be implemented faster and harder.

00:14:56.880 Do you want Trudeau faster and harder?

00:14:58.920 Because I don't, and I think most Canadians, if they are introduced to Carney in that way,

00:15:03.120 are going to, you know, spit them out like lukewarm water.

00:15:06.740 Anyways, so the next thing I want to get to is David Colletto's take on all this.

00:15:12.260 This is the polling can, a graphic for that Leger poll on what they found.

00:15:17.060 Again, this is the poll results if it's just Trudeau as the leader still.

00:15:20.160 Again, I really don't see a, because I think between the Carney, Trudeau, and Freeland poll,

00:15:26.240 Freeland and Carney and Trudeau and Carney, there's like a 12 to 16 point swing.

00:15:32.200 If they're a leader compared to a Carney's leader, which again, demonstrate to me it's not realistic.

00:15:36.940 You don't get a 16% swing with an unpopular party brand, depending on who's running as leader.

00:15:43.240 Even Poliev took like over a year to grow his brand and his trust to actually be like punching

00:15:50.540 as high as he is currently in the polls.

00:15:53.560 But this was a great, I think it was an interesting tweet by David Colletto.

00:15:58.400 Sorry, I just want to make it a little bit bigger on screen so I don't cut off some of what he said.

00:16:02.240 But he's getting at a specific truth about polling here in his comments about what article

00:16:09.660 he wants to write.

00:16:10.700 So David Colletto from Abacus Data says, thinking about writing a short piece on the impact of

00:16:15.640 weighting survey data on ballot support, we weight several demographic, regional, and language

00:16:21.060 variables by also having an in-house adjustment for partisanship past vote to make up for what

00:16:27.460 I consistently see is a conservative voters being underrepresented in data.

00:16:34.680 Yeah, and that's absolutely correct.

00:16:36.720 I see this a lot in polling because, again, like the Republicans in the U.S., conservatives in Canada

00:16:42.040 tend to not work as many office jobs.

00:16:44.360 You've got more plumbers, you've got more farmers, people who are less likely to pick up the phone

00:16:48.920 and take a poll.

00:16:49.660 And so what we have right now is a response bias also fueled by the liberals, working liberal

00:16:56.500 supporters, tending to work more in Bay Street or more in the civil service or more in places

00:17:01.420 where you can take an hour to tell a pollster what you think.

00:17:04.180 In fact, they're enlightening you by taking the poll.

00:17:06.820 We're a farmer getting a phone poll and he's working.

00:17:10.420 Dude, he's not going to take the poll.

00:17:12.260 A plumber is going to take a poll in the middle of someone's house trying to fix their sink?

00:17:16.220 Not a chance.

00:17:17.140 An electrician isn't taking a poll.

00:17:18.640 A construction worker is not taking a poll.

00:17:21.340 And even then, the conservatives are still ahead.

00:17:24.320 So what David Coletto goes on to say in another comment I'm going to bring up here is that

00:17:29.340 in all the polls they've been doing with their specific waiting formula, and waiting is the

00:17:34.220 idea that because you have to decide, pollsters have to decide what the turnout is going to look

00:17:39.880 like, because in every poll, you'll always see 60 plus aged voters, 65 plus year old voters

00:17:46.300 are always way overrepresented.

00:17:48.440 Again, they're like over half of the people taking the poll.

00:17:51.120 They have a lot of time on their hands.

00:17:52.640 They're more likely to take your poll. 0.99

00:17:54.420 Young people basically don't take polls.

00:17:56.660 They don't vote as much as other people.

00:17:58.520 But the rate to which they take polls and they vote is actually still way lower.

00:18:02.580 They do not take polls nearly as much as they vote.

00:18:05.340 So you just have to weight them up.

00:18:06.660 Middle aged voters too.

00:18:08.260 50 to 64 voters, they're usually around the right amount in the polls.

00:18:12.720 But what I find that a lot of the polls are showing a liberal surge are doing is that they're

00:18:17.140 just taking whoever takes the poll at face value.

00:18:20.300 And it just so happens that older voters tend to disproportionately vote left.

00:18:25.420 There is also more women who take polls. 0.91

00:18:27.720 And women do vote a little bit more than men. 0.99

00:18:29.740 But you'll see that they are more disproportionately taking the polls than they are even voting.

00:18:34.920 But people like Frank Graves at ECOS and other people like Nick Nanos are not going to correct

00:18:40.080 for that.

00:18:40.900 And they're not going to weight these demographic groups down as much as they really should based

00:18:45.860 on historical turnout with those different groups.

00:18:50.140 So David Coletto here says,

00:18:52.460 We are wrapping up our latest Canadian politics abacus data survey this morning, hoping to

00:18:57.460 have results out later this week.

00:18:59.340 But I can say that there are some shifts.

00:19:01.460 Trump is now the number two issue behind cost of living.

00:19:04.340 Those who think liberals deserve to be reelected up slightly.

00:19:07.740 But we aren't seeing a big change in vote intentions.

00:19:11.060 LPC up, NDP down, but CPC holding fairly steady.

00:19:14.620 And again, I think this is realistic.

00:19:17.120 There are some people who think the liberals haven't moved at all.

00:19:19.480 They're still at 20%.

00:19:20.400 They're definitely up.

00:19:22.180 Are they 35% up?

00:19:23.820 Not a chance.

00:19:24.860 I think the liberals are 28, 29%.

00:19:27.980 Maybe they could get a 30%, especially as you enter an election.

00:19:33.020 I find that that's when all the parties tend to be on their best behavior and are going

00:19:37.300 to be closer to their ideal turnout, unless you're the NDP, which the NDP might just continue

00:19:42.760 sucking because Jagmeet Singh is an awful leader.

00:19:45.020 I cannot get over how bad that guy is.

00:19:47.580 He could do...

00:19:48.700 I'd love to run the NDP for like two weeks to just demonstrate, even as a conservative,

00:19:54.280 I could run the NDP better than Jagmeet Singh could.

00:19:57.480 But yeah, I think he's on the money.

00:20:00.240 Main Street Research, although they are showing the conservatives down in Ontario in the provincial

00:20:04.580 poll, that's more...

00:20:06.200 Or the federal poll in their provincial poll.

00:20:09.540 I think that's more of a consequence that if you ask 17 questions about Doug Ford and

00:20:13.920 Bonnie Crombie, and then you ask people a question about federal politics, all the federal

00:20:18.840 conservatives who cannot stand Ford because he's not a real conservative have already hung

00:20:22.980 up the phone.

00:20:24.040 By the way, if you live in Ontario for the provincial election, I would heavily recommend voting

00:20:29.340 for the new blue party of Ontario.

00:20:30.960 They should have over 100 candidates in the 124 ridings of Ontario, so more likely than

00:20:36.840 not, you do have a new blue candidate in your area.

00:20:39.840 Vote for them because the Ford PCs are basically no different than the Bonnie Crombie Liberals.

00:20:45.060 In fact, Crombie herself has had to shame Ford for putting a box around John A. Macdonald's

00:20:50.320 statue on the Queen's Park property.

00:20:52.620 This is how bizarro world Ontario politics has become, that depending on the issue, the PCs or

00:20:58.300 Liberals are actually to the right or left of each other.

00:21:00.580 It's insane.

00:21:02.380 But yeah, this is basically my perspective on the polling.

00:21:06.340 Response biases are currently keeping the Liberals up, and I think that when you walk around society,

00:21:11.560 not that we should base our own personal perceptions and feelings for where we think the polls are

00:21:16.440 at, but truly when you walk around and you look online and you look at what people are watching

00:21:22.220 on YouTube and stuff like that, people are not in a progressive liberal mood right now.

00:21:27.100 People are in a reform-minded, conservative mood.

00:21:31.140 Polyev can still pack in events way better than Mark Carney can.

00:21:35.820 In fact, I thought the first 24 hours of Mark Carney's fundraising was very telling.

00:21:40.580 He brought in $125,000 in 24 hours, which sounds like a lot, but the thing is that he was running

00:21:47.260 a shadow campaign to become prime minister for over a year.

00:21:50.540 He has Rolodex of rich donors he can contact.

00:21:55.160 He was just on Jon Stewart's show like the week before, and then he launches his campaign

00:22:00.180 and gets the equivalent of 71 maxed-out donations.

00:22:03.520 I was just at a Pierre Polyev fundraiser in Vancouver, and I did actually give a full maxed-out

00:22:10.420 donation, and we probably in that night raised over $300,000.

00:22:14.680 It's not even close.

00:22:17.000 The actual sort of like charisma, the charisma gap between Carney and Polyev is real.

00:22:23.040 People will watch Pierre Polyev on a long-form podcast with Jordan Peterson or someone even

00:22:29.700 far less interesting than Jordan Peterson, and literally a quarter of the country will

00:22:33.860 watch that interview.

00:22:35.340 Carney isn't even doing interviews.

00:22:37.640 The man is going to fall on his face in the English liberal debates because he's not at

00:22:43.280 all compelling.

00:22:44.820 Carney is somebody who is also very vulnerable to attacks.

00:22:48.160 I guarantee.

00:22:49.300 I don't like Chrystia Freeland, but she's right when she calls herself the outsider of this 0.99

00:22:53.300 race.

00:22:53.740 Her and Ruby Dalla, basically, are the outsiders of the race because Team Trudeau is fully behind

00:22:58.780 Carney.

00:22:59.960 Mark Carney is going to get a strip ripped off in a debate among his fellow liberal candidates

00:23:06.640 because he is a candidate like Mike Bloomberg, who I see as somebody who is just seen as maybe

00:23:12.440 he could win better than Joe Biden.

00:23:14.760 This is the whole thing that happened in 2020, and there started being a movement behind Bloomberg

00:23:18.540 because they thought Biden was fading.

00:23:20.640 And the thing is, I see Carney as more of a Bloomberg than a Biden if we're talking about

00:23:25.020 left-of-center to left-wing politics.

00:23:26.920 He's a man associated with business and making money, although Carney's really a central banker,

00:23:34.000 so he's not even a competent businessman.

00:23:36.440 And if he gets into a debate, Freeland, Ruby, Frank Bayless, all these people, Karina Gould,

00:23:43.560 are going to bring up all these connections with Trudeau liberals.

00:23:46.380 Freeland actually has a very good case to say.

00:23:49.180 I was basically not even the finance minister over the past two years because Trudeau was

00:23:53.520 forcing me to implement all the stupid policies being recommended to him by Mark Carney.

00:23:58.420 Mark my words, that will happen.

00:24:01.100 She will take a rip at him because if she doesn't win here, Christopher Freeland's political

00:24:06.280 career is effectively over because she's not that compelling of a figure either. 0.90

00:24:09.460 So her only chance of actually being important in the next few years is becoming prime minister. 0.89

00:24:16.000 And again, it's also going to dog Carney that he's an unelected prime minister.

00:24:19.960 I don't mean like he won a leadership race and became prime minister,

00:24:23.940 but he wasn't elected as prime minister in a general election.

00:24:27.000 I mean, he's not even a member of parliament.

00:24:29.420 Kim Campbell was at least a member of parliament,

00:24:31.120 and he's going to perform probably as well as John Turner did in 1988.

00:24:35.400 John Turner got wiped out.

00:24:37.380 And a lot of people resented the fact he wasn't even a member of parliament when he was prime

00:24:41.440 minister, which is technically legal, but it's one of those things where you shouldn't do it

00:24:45.580 just because it's legal, because people tend to hate it.

00:24:48.740 Anyways, so that's that for me today, guys.

00:24:51.720 I like how every time I do one of these videos, I kind of end the video, then I go for another

00:24:55.760 five minutes.

00:24:56.720 That's just my style.

00:24:58.160 Hope you like the show, guys.

00:24:59.360 Remember to like the video, subscribe to the channel, leave a comment, and I'll see you guys

00:25:03.520 next time.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - February 11, 2025

Is the Liberal polling surge real or a Red mirage？ (Canadian polling analysis)

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