The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - April 15, 2024


Israel vs Iran - How did the political Left incentivize terrorism


Episode Stats


Length

8 minutes

Words per minute

207.94392

Word count

1,869

Sentence count

136

Harmful content

Hate speech

28

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

What's the difference between Iran and Israel? What are the differences between them? What do they have in common? What does Israel have to fear from Iran? And what does Iran have to worry about from Israel? In this episode, we will cover all of these questions and more.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 It's Iran vs. Israel. What do you need to know? Because if you've watched the CBC or CTV or CNN 0.57
00:00:06.120 or any real mainstream media news in the last 48 hours over what happened, you've probably
00:00:11.080 learned less and you've become a bit dumber. Sorry that happened to you. Not my fault. This
00:00:15.820 is what we're here to fix in 10 minutes or less. Okay. How can you understand more about the
00:00:21.680 conflict than 99% of anyone who's ever been on the CBC? And it's easy. You just have to acknowledge
00:00:27.580 reality. And there's two separate realities here that we have to go over. One is Iran. Second is
00:00:33.980 Israel. So how does Iran function? And what is the makeup of Iran right now? It is the Islamic Republic 0.94
00:00:41.800 of Iran. And that's a very important distinction. If you've ever followed an Iranian on Twitter who
00:00:47.200 isn't a jihadi, they've been telling you, hey, we are not the regime. We are different. We are the
00:00:51.860 Iranian people. They are the regime. You've seen this for the last two years, hopefully, when it's 1.00
00:00:56.640 gotten really big in the Mashlameini thing, you have the lion and son Iranians versus the Allahu 1.00
00:01:00.740 Akbar symbol regimes. Now, why is this very important? It's not just a, they're not the
00:01:06.660 people, blah, blah, blah. They're nice rhetoric. That's true. And it will play a thing. And the
00:01:11.820 Israelis have acknowledged this. If you've seen Naftali Bennett's statement, Netanyahu has been very
00:01:15.920 big in pushing Israeli-Iranian solidarity among the people. You see it in Paris. You see it in the UK.
00:01:22.220 You saw it here in Toronto. There is a sentiment. That's very important because when you're talking
00:01:27.220 about a war between Iran and Israel, what are Iran's military capabilities? You saw them.
00:01:32.940 Ballistic missiles. They fired missiles and drones at Israel. What they fail to have is Iranians. 1.00
00:01:39.800 All right. So the Islamic Republic and Iran are fundamentally different here. And they're actually
00:01:44.320 at odds, which is the big thing. And this is the key thing going forward for anything in this
00:01:48.740 conflict right now. It is the fissure between the Islamic Republic and the Iranian people.
00:01:54.320 Why? If you want to draft people into the military, which is Iran's current system, who do you have to
00:01:58.720 draft? Iranians. Who doesn't want to fight for the Islamic Republic right now? Iranians. They've been 0.99
00:02:04.340 in an open revolt against the regime. You're telling me that you trust, if you're the regime, would you
00:02:07.900 trust an 18-year-old kid you just drafted right now to hold a weapon? They don't. They're not holding
00:02:14.120 weapons. The people sort of enforcing laws on them are the besieges. These are like their hardcore
00:02:19.260 lunatic ideologue brown shirts. And there's reports of a lot of Arab militants that they have. Why? 0.92
00:02:25.140 Because the Islamic Republic fights with proxies. That is the number one way they fight. And all 0.95
00:02:31.800 these proxies are connected by the IRGC, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. It should be listed as a
00:02:36.700 terrorist entity in its entirety. But their international force, the Quds Force, Soleimani's thing. And
00:02:41.940 Israel has been very, very good at making cutlets, as we say, taking a different IRGC top commanders,
00:02:48.400 which hurts their ability to coordinate all these different global terrorist organizations.
00:02:52.020 You saw this on their attack. Yes, they fired hundreds of missiles and drones from territorial
00:02:57.000 Iran into Israel. But who joined them? The Houthis in Yemen, who they control, Hezbollah in Lebanon, 0.95
00:03:02.580 which they control. So what you need to know is any war, real war fought between Iran and Israel
00:03:10.280 would be fought with proxies. Which brings us to number two reality.
00:03:14.780 There's going to be a regional war. What is this? Escalation, de-escalation. Guys,
00:03:18.480 we're already in the middle of a wider regional war. What are you afraid is going to happen?
00:03:21.400 Are you afraid that Hezbollah is just going to start firing rockets at Israel? They did that on
00:03:25.000 October 7th. You're afraid that the Houthis are going to start firing rockets at Israel and start
00:03:28.760 terrorizing global shipping? Because, you know, there's a bunch of Filipino sailors 1.00
00:03:34.240 on top of Italian ship owned by a Portuguese guy. This is how we're going to fight the Zionist entity. 0.99
00:03:38.640 That's already happening. Are you afraid that a bunch of terrorist organizations linked to the
00:03:42.920 IRGC are going to start firing weapons at Americans and killing them? That's already
00:03:46.880 been happening. All of this has been happening since October 7th. So we're now just pretending
00:03:51.020 this isn't happening because it's more fun and more sensational to analyze and get experts in
00:03:55.900 because we like doing escalation, de-escalation, dick for tax, right? We get to bring up all the
00:03:59.600 terms we learned in university. Yay. Oh, there's a reason you're wearing a pseudo TV right now. You feel
00:04:04.160 special, right? So I'm going to go on the CBC or CBC as Mr. Expert McNoah et al. And I'm going to say,
00:04:09.540 oh, there was an attack by the Israelis on the consulate. And this is a response. And we will 0.95
00:04:14.080 see if there's a response and we'll see if there's an escalation or a de-escalation. Can the Biden
00:04:17.980 administration mitigate this and this and this? And we're pretending it's like we're playing
00:04:21.480 chess or something. And this is war. Okay. So the war is already going on, which means how do the
00:04:29.720 Israelis deter this from happening again? The reason why the Islamic Republic has been getting 1.00
00:04:34.180 more and more and more aggressive is because Biden's given the green light too. Okay. The U.S.
00:04:39.100 has lost all deterrence. We could do the rant of why Trump is a better foreign policy decision maker
00:04:44.480 than Biden. We've been there. We've done that. Moving on. Okay. The Biden administration has no
00:04:50.420 interest in setting any legitimate deterrence. And they might have even tacitly endorsed this attack
00:04:54.680 from Iran on Israel. Not good. So Israel needs to set deterrence because you can't just set the 0.95
00:04:58.960 precedent that you're allowed to send missiles into Israel, even if it's a failure. Right? 0.61
00:05:03.600 There's the obvious morality of like, oh, someone stabbed you in the alley, but you didn't die
00:05:07.520 because you went to the hospital and managed to escape your attacker. So there's no crime that
00:05:11.940 happened. No, someone who stabs people and tries to kill them is still, that's still a crime. It might
00:05:16.940 not be murder, but it's still attempted murder. So you still have to push back at that. You can't
00:05:21.400 just set the new precedent and let the regime just sit on this because they put significant resources
00:05:26.260 into this. Estimates have this about five to 10% of the missile capabilities and they weren't able
00:05:30.460 to do any real damage. They got one casualty and, and, and some missiles that got through the
00:05:35.760 interceptors, but they showed that they're not really capable of defeating Israel legitimately,
00:05:40.960 unless they go full all in, in a full out push. Like it's, it's pretty clear that they're not going to be
00:05:46.760 able to win a prolonged war. Their only way to, to win is, is a full on push and they've already spent
00:05:52.140 other capabilities. So the, the resource crunch that the regime is going under, you can't sort
00:05:57.080 of just give them this win and then let them build up to full strength because then they'll do it
00:06:00.600 again. Right. If there's a precedent that there's no retaliation for this, they'll just keep doing it.
00:06:04.940 Right. There was a precedent that Biden didn't want to escalate war when, when IRGC proxy started
00:06:10.920 firing missiles at Arrhenius, didn't want to escalate. So didn't shoot back and shoot back. And they kept
00:06:14.580 firing missiles and more and more missiles. And then they fired back once and it stopped for a bit.
00:06:18.300 And then they fired missiles again. And he's like, Biden didn't want to escalate.
00:06:20.920 So then they killed an American. And so how can they get away with that? Yes, they can. So they
00:06:25.000 just kept firing and firing and firing and go back in time. Oh, what can you get away with? Can we just
00:06:28.740 get away with, you know, taking random cargo ships for Palestine? We can get away with that. Let's 0.97
00:06:34.100 keep going, keep going. Where's the line? Where's the line? Where's the line? Can we fire hundreds of
00:06:36.980 missiles into Israel? They need to find the line. They need to find the line. And the reason they had to 0.99
00:06:42.680 fire back is because they were facing such internal strife again. The people inside Iran were mocking them
00:06:46.800 because their great vaunted force of the IRGC looked like clowns and the Israelis are getting 0.99
00:06:50.800 the better of them. This hurt their reputation. If you want to be a totalitarian regime and enforce
00:06:54.960 your will on your people who don't like you, they need to be scared of you. For them to be scared of
00:06:58.680 you, they need to think you're tough. So the regime has a big win right now where they can say,
00:07:03.160 we attacked the Zionist entity and they didn't do anything about it. They lose that the second 0.94
00:07:08.380 Israel does something about that and they lose face to the Iranian people. The difficulty the IDF
00:07:15.540 faces going forward is sort of navigating this complex social structure where their number one asset
00:07:20.800 is the Iranian people, right? Because the entire war calculus changes if the Iranian people say, 0.88
00:07:26.500 you know what, we're going to start fighting for Iran no matter who's in charge, right? That's a very 0.65
00:07:31.160 scary scenario. The best case scenario for the Israelis is current Iranian attitudes are even more of, 0.94
00:07:36.120 we hate the regime, we want freedom, women, life, freedom, men, nation, prosperity. That's what's
00:07:41.420 keeping, that's what's preventing a war. The attitudes of the Iranian people are the primary 0.71
00:07:46.720 thing deterring a full-scale Middle Eastern war. So you have to cultivate that, right? So you can't 0.93
00:07:52.280 just do what the regime did and just start fighting missiles willy-nilly at Tehran to kill as many 0.81
00:07:56.780 people as possible. That's a bad idea. But the Israelis need to hit Iran in a clever way that 1.00
00:08:04.680 really shows that they want to punch the regime and not the people. If they are able to sell that
00:08:11.120 message, you will see a very, very consequential loss domestically for the regime, which will
00:08:19.340 inhibit their ability, right? If they're more focused internally, they can't spend as much
00:08:24.280 resources on their proxies and their proxies are the ones currently instigating and fighting and
00:08:29.220 actively shooting missiles during this conflict. So we can pretend these people aren't lunatics
00:08:33.540 shooting missiles right now that are funded by the IRGC and use Iranian taxpayer dollars who Iranians 0.55
00:08:39.220 don't want to be going to this. We can pretend this is all not happening and it's all Israel's fault, 0.99
00:08:44.120 or we can live in reality. And if you live in reality and you understand the motivations of
00:08:47.900 everyone going on, and then there's just some lunatic jihadis, communists, and neo-Nazis running
00:08:51.780 around our streets, you'll be less scared of the impending World War III every time CNN or the CBC gets
00:08:58.820 something wrong.