The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - August 25, 2023


It's TrudeaOver： Liberal Voters Abandon Justin Trudeau

Hosted by
Wyatt Claypool
Mentioned
Justin Trudeau Jagmeet Singh Erin O'Toole Polyev Harper Ralph Klein Nimei Paul Bill C-63 Elizabeth Chrétien
Canadians Want The Opposite Of Justin Trudeau Charlie Angus Is Garbage (NDP MP Mocks Sheila Lewis' Death)

Episode Stats


Length

11 minutes

Words per minute

211.07

Word count

2,443

Sentence count

113

Harmful content

Toxicity

6

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Justin Trudeau's poll numbers are in free fall, and it's only a matter of time before they crash and burn. In this episode of the podcast, I break down what's going on, and why it's so bad for the Prime Minister that only 52% of Liberal voters want him to run for re-election again.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 Well, the sycophantic hashtag I stand with Trudeau crowd is out in full force on Twitter today, which can only mean one thing. Things are going very, very, very badly for Justin Trudeau. It's funny how those people only ever decide that they stand with Trudeau every single time terrible news comes out.
00:00:17.240 It's never like, you know, Justin Trudeau saves a puppy or, you know, Justin Trudeau lowers the cost of living for Canadians and they're tweeting, I stand with Trudeau. It's only when he's done something terrible in terms of like generating a new scandal or his polling numbers collapsing or a bunch of economic data coming out that shows Trudeau's an incompetent prime minister.
00:00:34.620 But whatever, it's fine. It's always a great sign that they're losing whenever they start tweeting. I stand with Trudeau all over Twitter. I guess it's called X these days, but it cannot be overstated just how bad the polling is for Justin Trudeau.
00:00:49.300 I hinted at it yesterday when we had not yet seen the abacus data poll come out. But today, not only did the abacus data poll come out, it just so happens that it's Christmas in August because we also got a poll out from mainstream research that was even better than the abacus data one.
00:01:04.460 And the abacus data one shows the Conservative Party is up 12 points on the Liberals. That's crazy. Like we thought it was a little bit nuts and it might be outlier polls back in the day when we saw polls coming out showing the Conservatives up 9 or 10 percent last month.
00:01:19.300 And now they're up 12 percent. And this mainstream research poll shows that the Conservatives are actually punching past 40 percent. They're at 41 percent in the polls and the Liberals are down at 28.
00:01:30.380 And what's hilarious about this mainstream research poll is not only are the Conservatives up seven points from what they had in 2021, but the Liberals are down and the NDP is down.
00:01:41.220 So it's not like the lefty voters don't kind of know where to go. They just don't like any of the lefty parties.
00:01:46.520 Jagmeet Singh is not a reliable place to put your vote if you don't like Justin Trudeau because they're effectively just the same option.
00:01:53.180 Just Jagmeet Singh is somehow even more irritating than Justin Trudeau is because at least usually Justin Trudeau is not on social media all day long the way Jagmeet Singh is.
00:02:02.700 But and I think the key here and the sort of like the root cause for why we're seeing this big turn on Trudeau is not just that, you know,
00:02:10.640 conservative voters or people in the middle are turning on him.
00:02:14.100 It's I think that Liberal Party, like the liberal voters and NDP voters are just kind of disconnecting from politics for a while because I don't think you could have gone this many years seeing this many policy failures and scandals and keep concluding like, you know,
00:02:28.240 if we give Trudeau another four years or so, it's going to suddenly turn around.
00:02:31.600 We just got to wait until the policy outcomes are super bad.
00:02:35.440 And then somehow they're going to break through the other side and everything's going to be hunky dory and it's going to be utopia.
00:02:40.780 And what I'm basing this off of is one of the polling results that came out of the Yabakus poll, which is like the one that's actually somehow easier on the liberals.
00:02:48.800 But this was pretty stunning, this result that showed that out of liberal voters from 2021, only 52 percent of them actually want to see Justin Trudeau run for prime minister again.
00:03:00.900 They do not want him leading the Liberal Party anymore.
00:03:03.820 So like that's 48 percent of people who either want him to step down or are not sure.
00:03:08.340 And it actually leans for those 48 percent.
00:03:10.620 Most of them want him to step down.
00:03:12.380 Like, of course, all Canadians want Justin Trudeau to step down.
00:03:15.540 In Canadian politics, sometimes those polls showing, you know, Polyev's unpopular.
00:03:19.720 Polyev has like a net negative rating of five or whatever.
00:03:22.820 It doesn't really matter.
00:03:24.140 He's an oppositional party leader.
00:03:26.060 Not many people know who he is.
00:03:27.400 And it's such a divided country in terms of all the different political affiliations.
00:03:31.260 It's really hard to be a positively approved of like politician.
00:03:35.600 But usually it's easier for the prime minister, because even if you vote green or liberal or even conservative or NDP, you're going to say, yeah, I don't mind the prime minister.
00:03:43.900 I vote for the policies I prefer in the greens or the NDP or the conservatives.
00:03:48.140 But whoever my prime minister isn't doing too bad of a job.
00:03:51.000 So you'd have seen that happen a lot with, you know, lefty type voters.
00:03:54.440 When Ralph Klein was the premier, you'd have had a lot of people begrudgingly say they actually think he's doing a decent job.
00:03:59.840 And same thing with conservative voters when Chrétien was around, you'd probably have a lot of people say, yeah, I don't agree with him on all the issues, but I like that he was cutting wasteful spending.
00:04:07.940 With Justin Trudeau, though, from this advocate's data poll, he's literally at the most unpopular point he's ever been in.
00:04:13.040 And this is including times like SNC-Lavalin and the We Charity scandal and the Trucker Convoy.
00:04:18.720 He has a disapproval rating of 53 percent and only 29 percent of people who approve of him.
00:04:24.180 And based on the polls that have been coming up, that effectively means unless you're voting for him, you have nothing good to say about him.
00:04:30.500 And that's a very dangerous place to be in Canadian politics because that means you don't have any room to grow.
00:04:35.900 Because although people like to pretend that parties are the party brands, it's the policies that people come together at AGM and drink terrible coffee and eat bad donuts and pass.
00:04:45.540 And that's what Canadians are voting for.
00:04:47.140 Oftentimes people are voting for the leader.
00:04:48.980 They're voting for the kind of attitude they give off.
00:04:51.220 And that's frankly why I think Trudeau beat Harper back in 2015, even though Harper is objectively the better leader between the two men.
00:04:57.580 Justin Trudeau kind of had that sunny ways positivity that I think got a lot of people on board without really thinking about his claims about deficits and whatnot.
00:05:05.500 They're very troubling.
00:05:06.380 They just like the fact that he seems sunnier, whereas Harper was very kind of insular and a little bit more, you know, awkward.
00:05:12.220 And I'm not saying that as an insult as an awkward person myself, but that's just the impression that people had.
00:05:17.200 But back in 2019 and 21, you were having Trudeau with an approval rating of around 35%, maybe even 40% sometimes.
00:05:26.660 And while he was only scoring around 35% of the vote, what allowed him to punch up to that 35% and what's brought him down to 28% is he had that kind of area of the populace who was willing to vote for him that he was able to sort of grab votes out of.
00:05:42.160 Whereas these days, we literally, he only has about 29% of people who actually like him and he's only capturing about 28% of the vote.
00:05:51.020 So his wiggle room here is effectively 1% unless he can maybe get some self-hating NDP voters to switch over just because they're scared of pure poly of.
00:05:59.180 And really, I don't really believe any of the stupid propaganda that comes out of the Toronto Star and all the other sort of legacy media papers claiming that Canadians are somehow scared of pure poly of. 0.92
00:06:09.360 And he's from the extreme right because whatever, it's just nonsense. 0.98
00:06:12.820 I don't even want to justify the way that they, the way that they argue this.
00:06:16.940 It's, it's silly, but I just want to look at a couple more things in terms of these polls, because it's not even just that Trudeau doesn't have a lot of room to grow right here.
00:06:26.300 It's that he's also just behind in every demographic right now in between literally no age group, 18 to 29, 30 to 44, 45 to 59 and 60 and over Trudeau is decisively behind.
00:06:38.140 I think the smallest gap they have is nine points behind the conservatives.
00:06:41.940 I believe here, I'm just trying to make sure.
00:06:43.780 Yeah, no, it's literally the smallest gap behind the conservatives is 60 plus voters.
00:06:48.220 And contrary to popular belief, because, you know, Democrats in the US tend to have a very younger sort of crowd that votes for them in Canada, the Liberal Party's base has always been older voters, because the NDP is the party that captures the more left wing younger voters.
00:07:01.960 And when the Liberals are behind in both older voters and women, that's when you have to be deciding whether or not you're going to move on to a new leader.
00:07:10.160 But as I said, my last video, the problem for the Liberal Party is that while around 48% of voters are very unsure or do not want to vote for the Liberal Party, who Justin Trudeau remains as the prime ministerial candidate for the party. 0.95
00:07:25.280 There is an equal number of people who probably leave and leave the party if Justin Trudeau stops being the leader, because as we see on Twitter, the hashtag I stand for Trudeau cult, as pathetic and silly as they are, they are a force.
00:07:39.940 And the problem with having one of these rabid forces with you is it prevents the party from ever making like any changes or any or or admitting to any mistakes, because I think if Justin Trudeau actually starts admitting to policy failures and then saying, but and this is what I'm going to do to make up for it.
00:07:54.440 His popularity would probably spike by 10%.
00:07:56.720 But because his party is incentivized to never admit to any mistakes, because there is this true and on cult who thinks that everything that the Liberal Party does is secretly amazing, they they can't actually move away.
00:08:09.340 Oh, and before I wrap this up, here's another thing I just remembered I want to talk about quickly between the abacus data poll and the mainstream poll.
00:08:15.960 This is the reason why I think and I'll flash them up on screen here.
00:08:19.600 This is the abacus data poll first.
00:08:22.240 The reason I trust the Main Street poll, even though I usually like abacus data a little bit better, is because Main Street, which is now on screen, has the PPC down to only 3%, where abacus has them at 2%.
00:08:32.960 Like they have the PPC losing more of a vote.
00:08:35.860 I do not see the PPC in 2025 being a force at all.
00:08:39.960 I voted PPC in 2021.
00:08:41.840 I voted conservative in 2019.
00:08:43.600 I have nothing against the PPC.
00:08:45.000 Although I do have things against the PPC, by I mean, in terms of principles, I don't mind the sorts of things that many of their, their like advocates, you know, are in favor of.
00:08:56.520 But the reason I do not think that they're going to be a force is one, I think Polyef has very much taken back a lot of support from the PPC.
00:09:02.640 And although PPC voters tend to be the type of people who will answer any phone poll and tell you how much they like the PPC, they've never grown as a party in terms of infrastructure.
00:09:11.960 I'm living in a riding right now that, yes, the PPC is not going to win the riding.
00:09:16.080 They don't really have a chance of winning any riding past Bernier's riding back in 2019 and 2021, which he neglected to do.
00:09:22.380 But in my riding, they should be able to pull off 5, 6, 7, 8%.
00:09:25.740 And they, they've underperformed in this riding because they've never developed on the ground infrastructure.
00:09:31.300 So while Justin Trudeau is having to deal with a Green Party that's actually going to have more teeth to it in this election, because they had a Nimei Paul, who was actually a good leader for the Green Party back in 2021, because she's Jewish and the Green Party has a deeply ingrained anti-Semitism problem.
00:09:47.160 They actually didn't field like a full third of the candidates, like they only had two thirds of candidates, which meant that they didn't seem like a viable vehicle to most voters.
00:09:55.100 That heavily suppressed their votes.
00:09:57.420 And Aaron O'Toole was running for the Conservatives, which pushed a lot of voters towards the PPC or kept Conservative voters home.
00:10:03.880 This year, Justin Trudeau is going to have to deal with a Green Party that has Elizabeth May back in the helm, which is what usually brings the party its popularity.
00:10:12.320 And they're having to deal with, and Koliath's only having to deal with a PPC that's obviously floundering from lack of leadership and real growth within the PPC.
00:10:21.020 So I think that the Conservative Party, as long as they actually stay the course and they start speaking to the issues that Canadians want to hear about, that they haven't heard people talk about, like parental rights actually cutting waste in government and making substantial reforms on government programs and social services, they will remain as high as they currently are right now.
00:10:40.860 Now, if they start trying to pull back into the Aaron O'Toole turtling kind of tactics of just assuming that, hey, we're ahead, now let's just basically slowly turn into the Liberals to grab out moderate votes, you're going to lose the election. 0.70
00:10:52.680 Canadians are not stupid. 0.83
00:10:53.860 And if you're just trying to be slightly to the right of the Liberals, no one's going to show up. 1.00
00:10:58.880 But anyways, that's it for me today.
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