The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - April 04, 2024


Jagmeet's NDP is falling apart - three MPs won't seek reelection

Hosted by
Wyatt Claypool
Mentioned
Charlie Angus Jagmeet Singh Carol Hughes Justin Trudeau Rachel Blaney James Bay Al Guamma Pyrpolyev
Trudeau admits he broke Canada with mass migration David Eby’s is making a doomed Carbon Tax gamble

Episode Stats


Length

9 minutes

Words per minute

188.78

Word count

1,779

Sentence count

95

Harmful content

Misogyny

2

sentences flagged

Toxicity

7

sentences flagged

Hate speech

2

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Jagmeet Singh's NDP is pulling into the low 20s in terms of support, but there seems to be a real crisis of confidence going on inside of the caucus. Three veteran MPs have decided not to run in the next election, and I break down why.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 Despite the fact that Jagmeet Singh's NDP is pulling into the low 20s in terms of support, which is actually three or four points better than they did in the 2021 election, there seems to be a real crisis of confidence going on inside of the NDP caucus.
00:00:15.840 And that's why today we had three NDP MPs just up and say they're not going to be running in the next election again. Those MPs were Rachel Blaney, Charlie Angus, and Carol Hughes. And these aren't just sort of any NDP MPs.
00:00:29.740 These are veteran NDP MPs. Charlie Angus has been in Parliament since 2004. Carol Hughes has been around since 2008. I don't know when Rachel Blaney got into Parliament, but that should be a riding that the NDP is not scared that they are going to lose.
00:00:44.960 But these MPs believe that they can lose the next election in their ridings. And even if they win, well, who really cares? They're going to be a distant fourth place seating party with no power to oppose what is very likely to be a massive conservative majority under Prime Minister Pyrpolyev.
00:01:01.960 And so these people are running away from the party. And I want to break down exactly why the NDP has landed in such a terrible position, despite the fact that in theory, they should be thriving with the downfall of Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party.
00:01:17.660 The Liberals are only polling around 24%, and somehow Jagmeet Singh has barely benefited at all from all of this.
00:01:25.000 And if anything, he's actually probably going to have less of a percentage of the vote in the 25 election than he did in the 21 election. 0.93
00:01:32.160 One, his fundraising sucks. And two, which is the most important point, he's just decided he doesn't need working class voters anymore.
00:01:39.640 He wants woke white college students who believe in free Palestine. We want pharmacare that covers literally every single drug people want.
00:01:49.320 And we want economic justice. We want social justice. And that doesn't connect at all with people who work on construction sites, people who are public sector union workers.
00:01:59.740 Most of these people, despite them being fairly left wing on maybe economic issues, when you push social craziness on them, they run screaming out of the room.
00:02:09.840 And the thing is, these three MPs, they're not exactly non-progressives. Charlie Angus is a crazy progressive, but he understands that you at least needed to push policy and push messaging in such a way to keep private sector union members on side.
00:02:24.780 And if you lose the private sector unions, all you have left is, I guess, most of the public sector unions and then the college students.
00:02:31.740 But the college students don't really vote. And the public sector union voters, even if you want 100% of them, are not actually that big of a chunk of the voting base.
00:02:40.460 And the liberals have very much the white collar section of those public sector union voters.
00:02:46.420 But anyways, here is what the 338 numbers look like for these different MPs.
00:02:50.620 So Rachel Blaney, in the riding of North Island Powell River, this is on Vancouver Island, an area that should be very easy for like a granola type NDP candidate to win.
00:03:01.500 She is projected to lose against her conservative opponent 44 to 34%.
00:03:06.700 She got 39.54 in the last election.
00:03:10.120 So it's not even that big of a drop for her, but it demonstrates that the conservatives are eating the liberals lunch so much, and they've probably stolen some of the NDP votes to the point where this used to be a riding that the conservatives really didn't put that much effort into winning because they weren't going to win.
00:03:23.480 And now they're just going to have a big walkover election in an area that most people score in the conservatives previously.
00:03:30.100 Charlie Angus, one of the most outspoken and, in my opinion, frankly obnoxious NDP MPs, is slated to lose a very close election to his conservative opponent, 39 to 38.
00:03:41.380 And the problem for Charlie Angus is that this used to be a riding where there was a big three-way split that Charlie Angus, as you can see in that last 21 result, he only won 35% of the vote in the last election.
00:03:54.960 But what he used to rely on was at least the liberals getting like 24% of the vote or so to at least suppress how many votes that the conservatives could get.
00:04:05.020 But now, because the liberals are either so unpopular in an area or the NDP has become so unpopular in an area that that vote split no longer exists to keep Charlie Angus in a riding like Timmons James Bay, a riding that has, yes, a very working class base of voters, but also a more socially conservative base of voters.
00:04:24.060 This is northern Ontario. If anything, it was kind of a fluke that he was ever an MP in that area.
00:04:30.100 But now that Jagmeet Singh has decided that there is no room for people who are even socially moderate, that a lot of voters are deciding that they might go over and vote for the conservatives.
00:04:40.980 And then Carol Hughes, in the riding of Al Guamma, I can't pronounce that, I am deeply sorry, I'm, you know, pretend I pronounced it correctly.
00:04:49.420 She is actually still slated to win 42 to 38, although there is a chance that the conservative would beat her, especially with another year of door knocking and campaigning.
00:04:59.460 But I bet Carol Hughes just doesn't see it being worth it to run for the NDP again. 1.00
00:05:04.140 She's going to work her butt off and then maybe she wins and she's probably going to be in a caucus the size of maybe 12 seats in which they're not going to have a chance of even being influential in government for probably another two terms. 1.00
00:05:16.240 Is she really going to stick around for basically no reason?
00:05:20.660 Like, what is the actual, other than getting the paycheck, there's no reason for any of these NDP MPs to stick around.
00:05:26.540 And so what I think they're trying to signal to Jagmeet Singh is that he actually needs to go back to just generic labor policy again, what the NDP was based on.
00:05:36.340 Because right now you can't say that much different between the NDP and the liberals.
00:05:39.920 There are two parties that push big bloated government programs and they promote woke social justice politics.
00:05:46.960 And so, well, what's the point of voting for the NDP if Justin Trudeau is giving you the exact same thing?
00:05:52.100 Maybe you don't like Justin Trudeau very much and that's why you'll vote for the NDP.
00:05:56.240 But if that's the only difference, you might as well combine the two parties if the NDP is just going to fail to do what it used to historically do.
00:06:02.800 And I'm saying this all as a conservative.
00:06:04.660 It is hilarious watching these people fumble around just assuming that they could run on whatever fashionable policies that they wanted at the moment and it was going to work out.
00:06:14.180 I guarantee this Hamas vote that the NDP put up in a motion, this pro-Hamas motion, hurt them deeply with their working class base.
00:06:23.440 It's not because their working class base cares about the Israel-Hamas war.
00:06:27.720 It's because it demonstrates just how out of touch the NDP is when their MPs are putting up black power fists in Parliament and wearing those pro-Hamas scarves in the House of Commons.
00:06:40.820 It demonstrates that these people are not actually fighting to reduce inflation and make the working class family better off.
00:06:47.100 The NDP has become a pro-government party.
00:06:49.840 They are in favor of whatever is good for the government and if that hurts working class people, they really don't care. 0.51
00:06:55.400 But I do have an alternative theory on why they're kicking out Charlie Angus. 0.94
00:06:59.980 It's because of that extremely stupid private members bill he put forward wanting to ban pro-oil and gas advocacy. 0.90
00:07:07.920 I believe it's like Bill C-375 or something like that, 372. 0.99
00:07:12.980 It was such an Odin goal. 0.87
00:07:14.980 It made the NDP so radical.
00:07:16.820 Like, Jagmeet Singh wouldn't even embrace that private members bill.
00:07:19.920 He just said, I guess my MPs have the right to put up private members bills if they get the opportunity.
00:07:26.220 I actually think there's a chance that the funny thing is, as radical as Jagmeet Singh has been, and as out of touch as he's been with the typical NDP base,
00:07:35.360 I think even he realized that Charlie Angus was putting the NDP's labor base at risk by attacking an industry many of them potentially work for.
00:07:44.180 So Jagmeet Singh, I bet, encouraged, at least out of the three who are resigning or not going to be running again, I guarantee he encouraged Charlie Angus not to run again because that is not exactly a winning issue.
00:07:57.660 Banning free speech that is pro-oil and gas. 0.85
00:08:01.600 I don't know what to really say about that other than that's the stupidest private members bill I've ever heard of in my entire life. 0.99
00:08:08.040 And there are some pretty wacky MPs in Parliament right now. 0.97
00:08:12.440 And the fact that he is coming out on top really says something.
00:08:15.780 Anyways, that should be it for me today, guys.
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