The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - December 14, 2024


Jagmeet Singh is projected to lose his own riding!

Topics
Jagmeet Singh election projections
Hosted by
Wyatt Claypool
Mentioned
Jagmeet Singh Justin Trudeau Burnaby North Seymour Burnaby Central Burnaby South Terry Beach
Trudeau destroyed Canada's national pride (34% ＂very proud＂ to be Canadian) Trudeau Liberals about to lose another by-election by a massive margin!

Episode Stats


Length

8 minutes

Words per minute

173.25

Word count

1,524

Sentence count

80

Harmful content

Toxicity

4

sentences flagged

Hate speech

2

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In this episode, I discuss the impact Jagmeet Singh has had on the rest of the New Democratic Party, and why he will likely lose in the upcoming by-election in Burnaby, B.C., where he is now running in a riding split into two ridings.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Topics generated with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct.
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here, and I am happy to announce to you all today that hard work and dedication still pays off here in Canada. 0.99
00:00:09.500 A great example of this is federal NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, because that man has been dedicatedly working hard to make sure that every single Canadian thinks he's an insufferable idiot.
00:00:22.820 That guy has been absolutely grinding it out, both in Parliament and social media, to make sure that not a single Canadian doesn't think that he has no spine, and that he will always capitulate to Justin Trudeau when the chips are down, even if he has all of the control.
00:00:41.220 And now, his hard work has paid off, and he is slated to lose his re-election in whatever riding he chooses to run in in the Burnaby area, because his riding in redistribution has been split into two different ridings, and regardless of which one he chooses to run in, he has a not very good chance of being re-elected.
00:01:03.680 But before we get into the current projections, I just want to go back and look at his past election results to show that he was never even in that good of a position to begin with.
00:01:14.420 But before I do that, I just want to remind you guys, if you're not yet a subscriber of this channel, go and hit that subscribe button and like this video.
00:01:21.680 Well, let's start back in 2019 in the by-election.
00:01:25.940 This is why people are saying that after February, we might have a federal election, because that's when Jagmeet Singh will qualify for his pension.
00:01:35.420 I don't think we're going to have a snap election after February, because Singh also has other NDP MPs breathing down his neck who don't get their pensions until October.
00:01:46.840 But here we go.
00:01:48.480 This is Singh in 2019.
00:01:50.300 He got 38% of the vote.
00:01:51.920 His second-place opponent got 26.02.
00:01:56.160 That's a pretty good showing for Jagmeet Singh, considering that he's actually a Brampton politician, and he moved out to BC looking for a riding.
00:02:04.620 Then in the 2019 general election, he got 37% of the vote, 37.6, and his conservative opponent got 30.92.
00:02:13.200 Then in 2021, he actually improved quite a bit, got 40.3% of the vote, and his liberal opponent got 30.4.
00:02:23.740 Now, not only is he losing heavily in one of these ridings, and the other one's more of a 50-50, but he's actually losing to a conservative, even though it showed that his main opponent was more likely to be a liberal in past elections.
00:02:40.900 Only in one out of the three did a conservative come second place.
00:02:46.260 Look at this.
00:02:46.860 So this is Vancouver, Fraser View, South Burnaby, and this actually makes up more of his original riding than the other one we're going to look at, which is Burnaby Center.
00:02:56.460 So in this Vancouver, Fraser View, South Burnaby, we see that they're projecting if an election was held today, the conservative would get 36% of the vote, the liberal would get 32, which is surprising considering the liberals are heavily down in BC, but this is generally a not-so-bad area for them.
00:03:16.600 And Jagmeet Singh would get 28% of the vote.
00:03:20.100 And the percent chances they then give to each party to win the race, they give 74% to the conservative, 22% to the liberal, and Jagmeet Singh gets a substantial 4%.
00:03:32.520 And let me preface all these results by saying that obviously a leader is going to dump a lot of resources into their own riding if they ever think they're in danger, so I don't think that Jagmeet Singh would truly be at just a 4% chance of winning.
00:03:46.940 But the fact that if we just assume a generic NDP is running in this riding, that they would get wiped out, that the floor would get mopped with their limp body,
00:03:59.060 demonstrates how bad of an effect Jagmeet Singh has had on the NDP.
00:04:02.960 Like, obviously, Justin Trudeau has also been a terrible leader, but Jagmeet Singh somehow takes the cake.
00:04:08.620 Because Justin Trudeau's in charge of the government.
00:04:11.360 He's done a terrible job, obviously, but Jagmeet Singh's only job is to sit there and criticize Trudeau and hold his feet to the fire and try and extract benefits for his side.
00:04:21.180 And he can't even do that.
00:04:22.520 Even with no pressure, he cannot function with no pressure.
00:04:26.740 Okay, but maybe he has a chance in another riding.
00:04:30.840 So let's check out what's happening with Burnaby Central, which I believe is coming mostly from the riding of Burnaby North Seymour.
00:04:39.160 So part of old Burnaby South is in this riding, and then some of Burnaby North Seymour.
00:04:44.420 This one is more beneficial for Jagmeet Singh because it is a more left-wing riding historically.
00:04:50.140 This is a riding where it's basically just the Liberals and the NDP fighting over it with only the Conservatives coming in at like 21%, 22%.
00:04:57.920 But even this one is terrible for Jagmeet Singh, and the Conservatives are still on top, a riding that typically most of it would be leaning heavily Liberal.
00:05:09.620 So the Liberals, I believe, yeah, Terry Beach won this riding with 39% of the vote back in 2021.
00:05:16.880 A NDP candidate came in with 29%, and a Conservative was behind with 25%.
00:05:21.920 And now, Jagmeet Singh, if he decided to run here, which again is not exactly a guarantee considering that then they would have to replace somebody for his, like, swap someone in for his old riding,
00:05:34.680 and that this riding is a large portion of it is, like, mostly people who don't know who Jagmeet Singh is, so he'd be starting from scratch once again.
00:05:42.760 This is horrible. He shouldn't be at 50-50. He should be at, if you're a leader, like 90-10. At worst, this is demonstrating that people think that Jagmeet Singh is just a terrible leader.
00:05:57.080 It's not just that the Conservatives are surging. If the Conservatives were surging, yeah, Jagmeet Singh would be in some trouble.
00:06:02.980 But it's that the Liberals are falling. So the Liberals are falling, and somehow Jagmeet Singh is not capturing any of that support.
00:06:11.580 Jagmeet Singh is getting none of it, because nobody likes Jagmeet Singh.
00:06:15.600 And it's his positioning on the issues. It's that he can't actually ever hold down an attack on Justin Trudeau for more than five seconds.
00:06:23.660 Remember the GST holiday thing that just happened? Jagmeet Singh was supporting the Liberal legislation,
00:06:28.800 and then suddenly, at the last moment, he says he doesn't support it, because it doesn't go far enough.
00:06:33.880 And then the Liberals just say, eh, who cares? And then the Liberals and Conservatives defeat his motion to have,
00:06:40.580 or his, like, change to the piece of legislation to make certain aspects of the GST holiday permanent.
00:06:46.840 And then after that gets defeated, he sort of, you know, gets snippy with Trudeau and Polly for five seconds.
00:06:53.700 And then he just votes for the Liberals' GST holiday anyways.
00:06:57.760 And then he attacks the Conservatives for not voting for it. He cannot stick to a position.
00:07:02.640 He is the politician for absolutely nobody, let alone a Conservative person.
00:07:07.160 He has never attempted to get a moderate, centre-right voter.
00:07:10.500 He only keeps pushing more and more left, and there's no more left to go.
00:07:15.200 He is up against the wall. 1.00
00:07:17.060 And because Justin Trudeau is also extremely dumb, 0.98
00:07:19.900 he's been chasing Jagmeet Singh for increasingly progressive voters, which makes no sense. 0.98
00:07:25.440 Both of those parties are losing people on their right to pure Polly and the Conservatives,
00:07:30.580 which I guess is a good thing because I'm a Conservative and I want them to win.
00:07:33.760 But as somebody who wants, you know, politics to make sense,
00:07:37.220 who wants our politicians to make sense with what they do,
00:07:40.020 I'm, like, frustrated watching Trudeau and Singh keep going left,
00:07:45.080 when obviously they should be going right.
00:07:46.720 Like, the Liberals are kind of going right on some of the policies,
00:07:51.120 like reducing immigration, which is good. 1.00
00:07:53.240 It's not nearly enough.
00:07:54.360 They should be slashing immigration way more. 1.00
00:07:56.540 But at least on that front, they're kind of moderating a bit.
00:07:59.760 But their language and the way that they're, like,
00:08:03.000 positioning themselves rhetorically keeps going more left.
00:08:06.860 Like, they're attacking Jagmeet Singh for not believing in climate change now.
00:08:09.880 They're, like, they keep expanding spending on a bunch of programs,
00:08:14.080 but then they'll sometimes do something slightly right.
00:08:17.140 Like, this whole GST, HST tax holiday was a way of pretending like they take tax reform seriously.
00:08:23.340 At the same time, they're going about to increase the carbon tax in April.
00:08:27.300 Make it make sense.
00:08:28.900 Ugh.
00:08:29.360 Anyways, that's it for me today, guys.
00:08:31.420 I just want to comment on this because I saw how bad the polling was,
00:08:34.560 and I'm like, oh my goodness, the last time I talked about how bad Singh was doing,
00:08:37.600 I was talking about him having, like, a 25% chance of not winning re-election,
00:08:41.960 and now he's just, like, not favored at all.
00:08:45.240 So that's it for me today, guys.
00:08:47.200 Have a good one.