Justin Trudeau Faces Polling Nosedive
Episode Stats
Words per Minute
201.24318
Summary
A new poll from Abacus data puts the Tories on 40%, and the Liberals on 26%. That's a massive drop from where they were a few weeks ago, and it's bad news for Justin Trudeau's chances of winning re-election.
Transcript
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You know, I promised myself a while ago, I wasn't going to make too many videos on polling.
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I like talking about polling. I really like analyzing polling. But the problem is I'd
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turn every video into polling if I didn't stop myself. But I'm not going to hold myself back
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right now because all the polls are fantastic these days. They're really fun to talk about.
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So there's this great new poll that came out from Abacus Data that has the Conservative Party not
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only above 40%, but it has the Liberal Party only at 26%. Like the NDP at 19, they're effectively
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just stagnating where they used to be. That's disgustingly bad for Justin Trudeau. This is
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nosedive scenarios. I do not doubt that this poll is not just indicating that right now the Liberals
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aren't doing well. It's indicating that they have zero momentum and the Conservatives have a lot of
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momentum and that the Liberals are probably going to keep falling back. We've seen this entire story
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before. It was the 2011 Canadian federal election where Mike Lignatieff, when the election first
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started, actually looked somewhat durable. He could actually potentially win the race.
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The Liberal Party was around like 34%, 35%. It was actually a fairly respectable number for the
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Liberals back then. That was actually quite good. They were in contention to actually win that race.
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But by election day, the Liberal Party, I think everyone remembers, had fallen all the way down to 18%.
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And I'm not, I'm not, I'm like, I just want to point out, when they were still pulling at 25%,
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was only like a couple weeks before the actual like election day. So the thing is, when we see the
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Liberals today pulling at only 26%, we shouldn't see this as their floor. We know what their floor is.
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Their floor is 18%. And while Mike Lignatieff was particularly unpopular, because he was effectively
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just an American running for the prime ministership of Canada. And he was really, you know, the ads
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were, frankly, very true that he was just visiting, and he didn't actually care to stick around in
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Canada, if he couldn't be the prime minister. But Justin Trudeau has similar problems, not in the
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same way as Michael Lignatieff, but in the same way that people are deeply tired of him. Because even
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though Michael Lignatieff was not in politics very long before trying to run to become the prime
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minister of Canada, he already felt like a worn out figure, because he was, in fact, only there to
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try to become the prime minister. And that's it. Right now, Justin Trudeau really only exists to
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stay prime minister. And I don't think that's a very compelling narrative to Canadians. Canadians
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kind of want, you know, their prime minister to actually have a vision for the country and not just
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basically defensively pretend like all their policies are working out super well, while basically
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just telling people to keep giving them power and not give it to the conservatives. That's pretty much
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all Justin Trudeau has left. But I'll just pop it up on screen. But this is the polling from the 2011
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race. You can see that, you know, back on April 21, the liberals are still at 26%. They're still at
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24% on April 26. And by election day on May 2, not very long after, they're only at 18.9.
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It is fully realistic that the liberals could see themselves going sub 20 before the 2025 election,
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especially because the conservatives under Polio actually do have a fairly compelling narrative
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for the country, you know, get the government out of the way, give power back to individuals,
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empower parents to look after their own kids, all that sort of stuff where the liberals are basically
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just failed policies. That's, that's all they have left. And they don't have the humility to actually,
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you know, admit to any mistakes and move forward in a positive direction. But I just wanted to bring up
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now this one headline that came from the Ottawa Citizen, because I think it's so typical of how the media
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thinks about politics, that despite this massive polling increase, 45 minutes ago, from when I
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started recording this video, the Ottawa Citizen put out this article from, it was an opinion article,
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to be fair, but it was Zacharias, to succeed politically, Polio should embrace robot climate
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measures. To succeed politically, like, what are they talking about to get above 60% of the vote?
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He's already doing brilliantly. 40% is more than enough to win a majority government in Canada.
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I think when Trudeau won his majority in 2015, he was only like 38% of the vote. Like, you know,
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the liberals do admittedly have a very efficient voter base, all their voters are exactly where
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they need them to be. And there's parts of the country, there's like basically no liberal voters,
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but they don't really need those ridings anyways. But still, a 40% for a conservative is more than
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enough to win, especially with the NDP not really going down and not really going up. So they're just
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going to hold on to a lot of the territory that they already have. But I think that what's going
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on right now is really just the kind of stagnation of the Liberal Party in people's minds. Not in terms
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of polling. Obviously, they've been falling in the polling. But in terms of it's no longer a fresh
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brand. Justin Trudeau feels like he's the guy who's been prime minister for two decades at this
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point. It felt like a very long and hard eight years, and it's probably going to be 10 years by the
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time we get rid of him. It's not going to be an exactly at this time in Canadian history,
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people are looking back on fondly. And Trudeau got to ride the wave of popularity when he first got
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elected, because any government who caught whose transitions from a more fiscally conservative
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government to a Liberal government is immediately going to be popular because they spend a lot and
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makes it feel like things are happening. There's all these new programs. Oh, hey, you got an extra 130
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bucks in your bank account from Trudeau's carbon tax. Everything feels fantastic. But after a while,
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when all the inflation sets in, when all the bad progressive, you know, instincts sort of lead to
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terrible social policies, when, you know, lockdowns happen in COVID, because we're in a government who
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listens to experts only, experts who don't actually have any clue about how, you know, the Canadian
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charter works, or, you know, don't actually give a crap about if their expert opinions actually,
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you know, work out to being true, they just simply like the power of the whole thing. When the Liberal
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government enables those things or does those things, it takes the shine off because that's
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the thing with progressives. Everything is supposed to feel like new that society has momentum, we're
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so progressive, we're so virtuous. But I don't think you'd ever get that impression of Canada by
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looking around today. The progressive instincts of the Liberals have made Canada a very backwards
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country in a certain sense. And we're a very economically deprived country. We have 500,000 immigrants
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coming every single year to a country that doesn't have enough housing, probably to sustain the people
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who are already here. And we just think this is okay. And the Liberals, like, again, that's a policy
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they will not reverse on. It is probably the biggest policy failing of their entire, like government.
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And they're actually doubling down on it and trying to imply that anyone who doesn't want
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even more, like excess demand on the housing market is somehow bigoted and racist. It's completely
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ridiculous. But this is the hole that they've dug themselves into. And part of that hole that they've
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dug themselves into is because of like media stories like I just showed you, they have many members of
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the media who are willing to just tell them that everything they're doing is brilliant. And if only
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the Conservatives were more like them, maybe they'd be like politically successful. So Liberals
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legitimately think that the pathway to being successful is just being as liberal as possible and
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having the media play it up. And they truly believe that the Canadian people still read legacy
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media news and think that the country's doing at all well into the Liberals. It's just clearly not
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true to people's lying eyes and ears. Nothing is nothing's going well. But just and Justin Trudeau
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cannot pull himself out of this tailspit. Sorry, but for the studio, I just want to go back to that poll,
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because I think the other sort of thing that's quite hilarious about this, not only that the
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Conservatives are up by 40, but the blocks actually down by two, this actually shows what the Conservative
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Party has been doing might actually work, that the Conservatives might be able to actually increase
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their seat count in Quebec, which is quite impressive considering over the past four years
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or so, there's been a lot of talk about just leaving Quebec to the bloc. And then the Conservatives
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mostly just dominating around BC and Ontario to make up the seats they need for a majority or at least a
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minority government. These days, Quebec might actually be an asset for the Conservatives. They might not just
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be puttering around with four or five seats. They could be having 15, 20 seats at this point,
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at this rate of how things are going. And the Liberals might even lose more seats and come back
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to the bloc, because while the bloc's kind of moving into these sort of suburban neighborhoods
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around Montreal, the Conservatives are then eating up a bunch of these rural areas that the bloc might
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have previously won. Anyways, but that's it for me today. I have the normal links in the description of
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this video below. My give, send, go. I'm fighting a Chinese billionaire in court over this
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extremely stupid defamation case. I'm winning that one right now, but he's trying to drag it out.
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I've had to pay over $15,000 just for that case so far. So if you can pitch in anything,
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it really helps. And if you happen to live in the Calgary area, Ben Shapiro is coming to do a live
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show in Southwest Calgary on November 16th. So if you live in Calgary or just sort of close by Alberta,
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where to the point where you're willing to drive or fly down, make sure to sign up for TNT emails
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at the TNT email link, just so that you can actually get extra email notifications from TNT
00:09:05.200
when we're putting up early bird ticket codes for that event, so that you can buy the tickets
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like a few days ahead of when they go on sale for the general public. Anyways,
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that's it for me today. And I hope everyone has a great day.