The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Justin Trudeau Faces Polling Nosedive

00:00:00.000 You know, I promised myself a while ago, I wasn't going to make too many videos on polling.

00:00:03.980 I like talking about polling. I really like analyzing polling. But the problem is I'd

00:00:08.700 turn every video into polling if I didn't stop myself. But I'm not going to hold myself back

00:00:13.160 right now because all the polls are fantastic these days. They're really fun to talk about.

00:00:17.440 So there's this great new poll that came out from Abacus Data that has the Conservative Party not

00:00:22.600 only above 40%, but it has the Liberal Party only at 26%. Like the NDP at 19, they're effectively

00:00:29.820 just stagnating where they used to be. That's disgustingly bad for Justin Trudeau. This is

00:00:35.260 nosedive scenarios. I do not doubt that this poll is not just indicating that right now the Liberals

00:00:41.460 aren't doing well. It's indicating that they have zero momentum and the Conservatives have a lot of

00:00:46.660 momentum and that the Liberals are probably going to keep falling back. We've seen this entire story

00:00:51.540 before. It was the 2011 Canadian federal election where Mike Lignatieff, when the election first

00:00:57.860 started, actually looked somewhat durable. He could actually potentially win the race.

00:01:05.060 The Liberal Party was around like 34%, 35%. It was actually a fairly respectable number for the 1.00

00:01:10.240 Liberals back then. That was actually quite good. They were in contention to actually win that race.

00:01:15.440 But by election day, the Liberal Party, I think everyone remembers, had fallen all the way down to 18%.

00:01:20.980 And I'm not, I'm not, I'm like, I just want to point out, when they were still pulling at 25%,

00:01:26.980 was only like a couple weeks before the actual like election day. So the thing is, when we see the

00:01:33.040 Liberals today pulling at only 26%, we shouldn't see this as their floor. We know what their floor is.

00:01:39.120 Their floor is 18%. And while Mike Lignatieff was particularly unpopular, because he was effectively

00:01:44.740 just an American running for the prime ministership of Canada. And he was really, you know, the ads

00:01:50.340 were, frankly, very true that he was just visiting, and he didn't actually care to stick around in

00:01:54.900 Canada, if he couldn't be the prime minister. But Justin Trudeau has similar problems, not in the

00:02:00.440 same way as Michael Lignatieff, but in the same way that people are deeply tired of him. Because even

00:02:05.980 though Michael Lignatieff was not in politics very long before trying to run to become the prime

00:02:10.960 minister of Canada, he already felt like a worn out figure, because he was, in fact, only there to

00:02:16.580 try to become the prime minister. And that's it. Right now, Justin Trudeau really only exists to

00:02:21.380 stay prime minister. And I don't think that's a very compelling narrative to Canadians. Canadians

00:02:26.080 kind of want, you know, their prime minister to actually have a vision for the country and not just

00:02:30.300 basically defensively pretend like all their policies are working out super well, while basically

00:02:35.760 just telling people to keep giving them power and not give it to the conservatives. That's pretty much

00:02:39.540 all Justin Trudeau has left. But I'll just pop it up on screen. But this is the polling from the 2011

00:02:44.180 race. You can see that, you know, back on April 21, the liberals are still at 26%. They're still at

00:02:50.980 24% on April 26. And by election day on May 2, not very long after, they're only at 18.9.

00:02:59.780 It is fully realistic that the liberals could see themselves going sub 20 before the 2025 election,

00:03:06.980 especially because the conservatives under Polio actually do have a fairly compelling narrative

00:03:11.620 for the country, you know, get the government out of the way, give power back to individuals,

00:03:15.420 empower parents to look after their own kids, all that sort of stuff where the liberals are basically

00:03:19.740 just failed policies. That's, that's all they have left. And they don't have the humility to actually,

00:03:24.820 you know, admit to any mistakes and move forward in a positive direction. But I just wanted to bring up

00:03:29.640 now this one headline that came from the Ottawa Citizen, because I think it's so typical of how the media

00:03:34.200 thinks about politics, that despite this massive polling increase, 45 minutes ago, from when I

00:03:40.000 started recording this video, the Ottawa Citizen put out this article from, it was an opinion article,

00:03:45.820 to be fair, but it was Zacharias, to succeed politically, Polio should embrace robot climate

00:03:50.480 measures. To succeed politically, like, what are they talking about to get above 60% of the vote?

00:03:56.060 He's already doing brilliantly. 40% is more than enough to win a majority government in Canada.

00:04:01.120 I think when Trudeau won his majority in 2015, he was only like 38% of the vote. Like, you know,

00:04:07.660 the liberals do admittedly have a very efficient voter base, all their voters are exactly where

00:04:12.680 they need them to be. And there's parts of the country, there's like basically no liberal voters,

00:04:16.420 but they don't really need those ridings anyways. But still, a 40% for a conservative is more than

00:04:21.900 enough to win, especially with the NDP not really going down and not really going up. So they're just

00:04:26.920 going to hold on to a lot of the territory that they already have. But I think that what's going

00:04:32.640 on right now is really just the kind of stagnation of the Liberal Party in people's minds. Not in terms

00:04:38.820 of polling. Obviously, they've been falling in the polling. But in terms of it's no longer a fresh

00:04:43.860 brand. Justin Trudeau feels like he's the guy who's been prime minister for two decades at this

00:04:48.200 point. It felt like a very long and hard eight years, and it's probably going to be 10 years by the

00:04:52.980 time we get rid of him. It's not going to be an exactly at this time in Canadian history,

00:04:57.880 people are looking back on fondly. And Trudeau got to ride the wave of popularity when he first got

00:05:03.360 elected, because any government who caught whose transitions from a more fiscally conservative

00:05:08.080 government to a Liberal government is immediately going to be popular because they spend a lot and

00:05:12.500 makes it feel like things are happening. There's all these new programs. Oh, hey, you got an extra 130

00:05:16.720 bucks in your bank account from Trudeau's carbon tax. Everything feels fantastic. But after a while,

00:05:22.580 when all the inflation sets in, when all the bad progressive, you know, instincts sort of lead to

00:05:28.760 terrible social policies, when, you know, lockdowns happen in COVID, because we're in a government who

00:05:33.660 listens to experts only, experts who don't actually have any clue about how, you know, the Canadian 0.69

00:05:38.920 charter works, or, you know, don't actually give a crap about if their expert opinions actually,

00:05:44.200 you know, work out to being true, they just simply like the power of the whole thing. When the Liberal

00:05:49.280 government enables those things or does those things, it takes the shine off because that's

00:05:54.340 the thing with progressives. Everything is supposed to feel like new that society has momentum, we're

00:05:59.560 so progressive, we're so virtuous. But I don't think you'd ever get that impression of Canada by

00:06:05.020 looking around today. The progressive instincts of the Liberals have made Canada a very backwards

00:06:09.460 country in a certain sense. And we're a very economically deprived country. We have 500,000 immigrants

00:06:15.200 coming every single year to a country that doesn't have enough housing, probably to sustain the people

00:06:19.980 who are already here. And we just think this is okay. And the Liberals, like, again, that's a policy

00:06:25.480 they will not reverse on. It is probably the biggest policy failing of their entire, like government.

00:06:31.000 And they're actually doubling down on it and trying to imply that anyone who doesn't want

00:06:34.880 even more, like excess demand on the housing market is somehow bigoted and racist. It's completely

00:06:41.500 ridiculous. But this is the hole that they've dug themselves into. And part of that hole that they've 0.99

00:06:47.000 dug themselves into is because of like media stories like I just showed you, they have many members of

00:06:51.940 the media who are willing to just tell them that everything they're doing is brilliant. And if only

00:06:55.820 the Conservatives were more like them, maybe they'd be like politically successful. So Liberals

00:07:00.840 legitimately think that the pathway to being successful is just being as liberal as possible and

00:07:05.540 having the media play it up. And they truly believe that the Canadian people still read legacy

00:07:10.960 media news and think that the country's doing at all well into the Liberals. It's just clearly not

00:07:16.300 true to people's lying eyes and ears. Nothing is nothing's going well. But just and Justin Trudeau

00:07:21.740 cannot pull himself out of this tailspit. Sorry, but for the studio, I just want to go back to that poll,

00:07:28.020 because I think the other sort of thing that's quite hilarious about this, not only that the

00:07:33.040 Conservatives are up by 40, but the blocks actually down by two, this actually shows what the Conservative

00:07:39.060 Party has been doing might actually work, that the Conservatives might be able to actually increase

00:07:43.240 their seat count in Quebec, which is quite impressive considering over the past four years

00:07:47.460 or so, there's been a lot of talk about just leaving Quebec to the bloc. And then the Conservatives

00:07:52.640 mostly just dominating around BC and Ontario to make up the seats they need for a majority or at least a

00:07:58.400 minority government. These days, Quebec might actually be an asset for the Conservatives. They might not just

00:08:03.180 be puttering around with four or five seats. They could be having 15, 20 seats at this point,

00:08:08.180 at this rate of how things are going. And the Liberals might even lose more seats and come back

00:08:12.260 to the bloc, because while the bloc's kind of moving into these sort of suburban neighborhoods

00:08:17.000 around Montreal, the Conservatives are then eating up a bunch of these rural areas that the bloc might

00:08:21.740 have previously won. Anyways, but that's it for me today. I have the normal links in the description of

00:08:27.100 this video below. My give, send, go. I'm fighting a Chinese billionaire in court over this

00:08:31.320 extremely stupid defamation case. I'm winning that one right now, but he's trying to drag it out. 1.00

00:08:36.280 I've had to pay over $15,000 just for that case so far. So if you can pitch in anything,

00:08:40.460 it really helps. And if you happen to live in the Calgary area, Ben Shapiro is coming to do a live

00:08:46.360 show in Southwest Calgary on November 16th. So if you live in Calgary or just sort of close by Alberta,

00:08:54.520 where to the point where you're willing to drive or fly down, make sure to sign up for TNT emails

00:08:58.980 at the TNT email link, just so that you can actually get extra email notifications from TNT

00:09:05.200 when we're putting up early bird ticket codes for that event, so that you can buy the tickets

00:09:09.780 like a few days ahead of when they go on sale for the general public. Anyways,

00:09:14.380 that's it for me today. And I hope everyone has a great day.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - September 07, 2023

Justin Trudeau Faces Polling Nosedive

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