The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - July 28, 2024


Justin Trudeau falls far behind in Liberal leadership polls!


Episode Stats


Length

8 minutes

Words per minute

183.172

Word count

1,558

Sentence count

92

Harmful content

Misogyny

3

sentences flagged

Hate speech

1

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

It's no secret in Canada that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is not very well liked. You could say that he's deeply hated. But even I was kind of shocked by a recent poll result that puts him not even in the top two preferred candidates for the Liberal Party leadership.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 It's no secret in Canada that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is not very well liked.
00:00:06.300 You could say that he's deeply hated, but even I was kind of shocked by this recent poll result
00:00:12.400 that puts Prime Minister Justin Trudeau not even in the top two preferred candidates for the Liberal Party leadership.
00:00:20.720 If they had a new leadership race, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in his own party could easily lose,
00:00:26.920 and even the top two people above him, they're not even particularly well liked.
00:00:31.660 It's not like a ringer was brought in and that person would be muscling out Trudeau.
00:00:36.060 People just want anybody else but him.
00:00:39.220 But let's start off just by talking about the general numbers around Trudeau's approvals.
00:00:44.160 We've seen this for a long time that he's been below water in terms of what Canadians think of him.
00:00:49.380 Here are the abacus data results that have been showing since 2022.
00:00:53.900 He has been below water.
00:00:55.400 These days, he has a massive gap in his approval rating.
00:00:59.000 He has a negative 35% approval rating.
00:01:02.500 Jagmeet Singh has a negative 3%.
00:01:04.260 He used to have like a plus 22 approval rating, but the problem is he's tied himself to the reputation of Justin Trudeau.
00:01:11.660 So even though usually NDP leaders are decently well liked, not because people agree with their politics,
00:01:17.240 but they're unthreatening because they will never be Prime Minister.
00:01:20.440 So you'll just naturally say, well, you must be a fine guy.
00:01:23.720 The problem is now Jagmeet Singh is actually a partner in crime with Justin Trudeau.
00:01:28.580 So his reputation has sunk measurably.
00:01:31.580 And now, pure Polyev, even though he started off with an approval rating around negative 15, negative 18 when he first became the Conservative Party leader,
00:01:40.600 because there's just so much negative attention that you get from the media if you're a conservative politician, Canada.
00:01:46.940 He has still fought through that.
00:01:48.160 And now he is a plus 3, which in reality is probably more like a plus 15, because, again, the bias in the media,
00:01:55.580 the sort of social pressure to not like a conservative, to think that they're dark and scary, is very much present.
00:02:01.360 So if you're getting a plus 3, it probably means that under the surface, when, you know, based on how people behave,
00:02:07.700 they actually like you far better than they'll even admit to a pollster.
00:02:11.240 Here are the Nanos numbers for who you prefer to be Prime Minister.
00:02:15.180 This is a little bit different than approvals, obviously.
00:02:17.880 But right now, 35.3% of people in Canada prefer if Pierre Polyev was the Prime Minister.
00:02:23.700 Only 23.3% of people want Justin Trudeau.
00:02:27.600 We have, I think, Jagmeet Singh's being beaten by unsure.
00:02:31.520 He's at 15, unsure's at 16.
00:02:33.500 And then you have everyone else out there.
00:02:35.300 Very, very low numbers down the polls.
00:02:38.060 Bernier, like Blanchet, and Elizabeth May.
00:02:41.780 All those people who have no ability to become Prime Minister.
00:02:45.480 Well, let's now get to the main event.
00:02:47.560 That being a liberal leadership poll that was done by Nanos,
00:02:51.200 showing that Trudeau is not even in contention for his own party's leadership.
00:02:56.940 And you could say, well, this might be mixing in a lot of non-liberals asking them their opinion.
00:03:02.040 But this happens all the time with conservative leadership races.
00:03:05.040 They'll ask everyone, well, who do you like?
00:03:07.800 Pierre Polyev, Jean Charest, Leslie Lewis?
00:03:09.800 Do you like Aaron O'Toole, Peter McKay, Derek Sloan, Leslie Lewis?
00:03:12.960 And the thing is, that generally will give you an idea of who's popular.
00:03:16.920 And right now, with there potentially being at least a quarter, 30%,
00:03:22.760 somewhere in that range of people who could weigh in and say,
00:03:27.560 nope, we're liberal voters and we still like Justin Trudeau.
00:03:30.060 He's only at 9%.
00:03:31.480 This means, let's assume all 9% of Trudeau's polling is coming from liberals.
00:03:36.680 That means if you take that 9% away from the 23%, 24% the liberals usually have,
00:03:42.880 there's 15% of people who don't want him, who are liberal voters,
00:03:45.860 if we assume 100% of his 9% here is coming from liberal party supporters.
00:03:51.740 But this is what I mean when I say he's not even technically in,
00:03:55.340 he's in the top three in terms of candidates.
00:03:58.280 He's behind Mark Carney here, who has a 15%,
00:04:01.900 who has 15% of people preferring him to be the new liberal party leader.
00:04:05.860 The darker blue bar and the lighter blue bar are the transition between,
00:04:11.120 or the darker one is July of 24 and the lighter one is December 23.
00:04:16.700 So Justin Trudeau has been in a holding pattern.
00:04:18.820 He's still at 9% after all this time.
00:04:21.560 Christia Freeland used to be at 18% and now has fallen to 9% 0.99
00:04:24.580 because people got to know her a little bit.
00:04:26.640 And Mark Carney is the one who is increasing over time,
00:04:30.500 probably because he is considered, in a certain strange way,
00:04:34.120 a more conservative option for the liberals.
00:04:37.200 Justin Trudeau is not actually a typical liberal.
00:04:40.160 Like him and Jean Chrétien do not have a lot in common in terms of their policy.
00:04:44.440 Mark Carney is still to the left of a Jean Chrétien,
00:04:47.700 but he also isn't what I would call an orange liberal like Justin Trudeau is.
00:04:52.300 Justin Trudeau cares more about social issues.
00:04:55.060 He cares more about social justice and equity
00:04:57.120 before he cares about managing the debt,
00:05:00.700 like, you know, better public finance,
00:05:02.800 paying down, you know, reducing the deficit,
00:05:05.820 you know, getting inflation down.
00:05:07.760 That's something where even if Mark Carney would still be a bad prime minister,
00:05:10.940 in my mind, he at least cares about those things.
00:05:13.540 He is a little bit more of a 90s liberal.
00:05:15.560 But it is funny to see Chrystia Freeland literally having the amount of people
00:05:19.740 who would prefer her to be the liberal leader falling from 18% to just nine.
00:05:24.680 Because when Justin Trudeau started really, really falling in the polls
00:05:28.660 and they started doing these liberal leadership polls,
00:05:31.520 just for fun, seeing where people are at,
00:05:34.000 Chrystia Freeland was considered a successor.
00:05:36.640 And then in the past two months,
00:05:38.560 Justin Trudeau has been throwing her under the bus for apparently doing a bad job 0.63
00:05:42.280 after the Toronto St. Paul by-election.
00:05:44.840 He's immediately started knifing her in the back, 0.95
00:05:47.000 trying to get rid of her.
00:05:48.140 And it seems like a lot of Canadians,
00:05:49.900 either from just disliking Freeland the more she's in front of the camera,
00:05:53.360 as well as liberals basically being told do not back her,
00:05:56.720 that they've all stopped supporting her in these polls.
00:05:59.020 But even Mark Carney, Freeland, Trudeau, and all the also-rans 1.00
00:06:02.900 are still being beaten by unsure and none of the above,
00:06:06.740 which are effectively the same answer,
00:06:10.260 but none of the above and unsure,
00:06:12.440 have a combined 45% in this poll,
00:06:16.240 which is almost more than every single other person here combined.
00:06:20.720 The other people here, it's like Melanie Jolie,
00:06:23.700 François-Philippe Champagne, Anita Anand,
00:06:26.520 Dominic LeBlanc, Sean Frazier.
00:06:28.520 Sean Frazier is the funniest one here to me.
00:06:30.720 They tried to make this man like the second Trudeau.
00:06:34.340 And even though he's been given immigration minister,
00:06:37.360 he's been given the ministry of housing,
00:06:39.700 he's been given big frontline files and he's fumbled them so hard
00:06:44.360 that now he's like this embarrassing stepchild of Justin Trudeau
00:06:48.040 that they are trying to increasingly not put out there too much.
00:06:51.840 But to end it off here, this is a death knell.
00:06:56.060 If you're Justin Trudeau and you can't,
00:06:58.580 through shuffling your cabinet,
00:07:00.780 through attacking pure poly,
00:07:02.420 of trying to get some of that fighting energy back,
00:07:04.480 you can't even shift a singular point.
00:07:06.340 And this is even showing that his 9% is actually a little bit lower by some decimal.
00:07:11.580 That if you're still falling with all of the measures,
00:07:14.420 all the money that the liberals are throwing out there,
00:07:16.440 trying to rebuild your reputation and credibility,
00:07:19.020 you're still dead in the water.
00:07:20.520 It means people probably have decided they're not voting for you two years ago
00:07:24.320 and they're not coming back.
00:07:25.540 Anyways, that should be it for me today, guys.
00:07:28.620 If you want to contribute to my legal fund,
00:07:30.560 that's in the Give, Send, Go link in the description below.
00:07:33.280 You can go sign up on my website if you want to be on the mail list,
00:07:37.040 wyattclaypool.com.
00:07:38.380 That's also linked in the description below.
00:07:40.100 And if you live in British Columbia,
00:07:41.720 I am currently out here in Abbotsford,
00:07:44.320 helping Bruce Bandman in Abbotsford South
00:07:46.540 and for the Conservative Party of British Columbia
00:07:49.440 to win the entire election.
00:07:51.500 We want a majority.
00:07:52.300 So if you live in BC, there's a BC donation link
00:07:56.000 in the description below as well.
00:07:57.580 If you donate $100, you get 75% of that donation back on your taxes.
00:08:03.480 So it really only costs you 25.
00:08:05.380 Consider donating because the only advantage
00:08:07.720 the BC NDP and David Eby still have over us
00:08:11.000 is the fact they have more money.
00:08:12.840 Nobody likes them in the polling.
00:08:14.040 Nobody likes David Eby personally.
00:08:15.640 All of his cabinet ministers are leaving.
00:08:17.420 The only thing they have left is that last quarter,
00:08:19.520 they raised about $2.6 million
00:08:21.720 and the Conservatives raised $1.1 million.
00:08:24.340 If we can catch up, then it's an easy election to win.
00:08:27.520 Anyways, that should be it for me today, guys.
00:08:29.720 Have a good one.