The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - November 04, 2024


Justin Trudeau has ZERO path to staying Prime Minister!

Hosted by
Wyatt Claypool
Mentioned
Justin Trudeau Pierre Poilievre Jagmeet Singh Creek Pete Sean Casey Blake Desjardins Randy Boissoneau George Chahal McPherson Nanos
Canadian politicians enable Khalistani thugs on our streets BC's election plagued by lost ballots and glitches - Recounts ongoing

Episode Stats


Length

12 minutes

Words per minute

183.78

Word count

2,244

Sentence count

153

Harmful content

Misogyny

2

sentences flagged

Hate speech

2

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Justin Trudeau has zero chance of winning the next election. Spoiler alert, he's not even close to catching up to the other major parties. In this video, I break down the current polling numbers across several polls and show how unlikely it is that Justin Trudeau is actually catching momentum.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.160 Hey everyone, Wyatt Claypool here. If you've watched more than a couple of videos from me,
00:00:06.080 you're already pretty well aware of the fact that I love to talk about polling. But if there is one
00:00:11.820 thing I like to talk about even more than polling, it's people who don't understand polls and think
00:00:17.520 Justin Trudeau is actually going to be able to win the 2025 federal election. Spoiler alert,
00:00:23.420 he cannot. He has zero paths to victory right now, and I'm going to show you as well as make fun of
00:00:30.620 some people who truly think that pure Polyev is somehow going to fall on his face before the next
00:00:36.020 general election. But before I get into all that, I'm just going to remind you guys to subscribe to
00:00:41.000 the channel because in my analytics, I see about, you know, 75% of people are not currently subscribed
00:00:47.220 to the channel. So if you've popped in more than once to watch my videos and you like them, make
00:00:51.860 sure to hit the subscribe button and also like this video if you've already done that. Anyways,
00:00:56.920 so there's been a lot of liberal people on social media who whenever Nanos or Ecos puts out a poll
00:01:03.140 showing that the conservatives are only 13 points ahead of the liberals, they truly think that there
00:01:08.620 is going to be an upward trend for Justin Trudeau, that he has momentum. He doesn't, guys. I'm not just
00:01:15.180 saying this because I'm a conservative. Obviously, I want the conservatives to win, but I would be honest
00:01:20.300 if I thought that the conservatives were starting to trail back because I would tell them what they
00:01:24.860 should be doing to improve in the polls. The polls that are showing the conservatives only 13 points
00:01:31.320 ahead are still showing the conservatives winning a big majority. They'd be winning a majority of 15 to
00:01:37.100 25 seats even with just a 13% lead. Most of the polls still show them leading by anywhere from 18% all
00:01:45.760 the way up to 22%. There's even a Main Street poll that showed them at 24% ahead of the federal
00:01:51.840 liberals. I'm just going to show you the current polling on the back end of 338 just to show you
00:01:57.220 what the current numbers are looking like across several different polls. This is all of the polls
00:02:02.940 over the last several weeks here. And you can see, yeah, there's a 12% from Ecos. Ooh, wow, maybe the
00:02:09.220 liberals are catching some momentum. 13 from Nanos, 22 Angus Reid, 22 Abacus Data. Nanos is showing some
00:02:15.940 weaker numbers, but Campaign Research, 17 Abacus, 21 Palace, 22. And it's just Nanos and Ecos basically
00:02:24.020 showing these lower 13s, 15s, and 12s. And even then, it's really just the methodology and sampling
00:02:32.120 techniques of those pollsters. When you actually look at their polls, Justin Trudeau is not catching
00:02:39.520 an ounce of momentum right now. I'll just show you the Nanos poll in depth behind the scenes here
00:02:45.080 and showing how when you actually look at their results, the liberals are not doing well. We see
00:02:50.920 here in 2022, late 2022, that the liberals and the conservatives are somewhat close right here. That's
00:02:56.980 just when pure poly is becoming the leader. And after that, the trend is still consistent with
00:03:02.500 everyone else. They don't think maybe the conservatives are at 44%. I disagree with them.
00:03:07.060 I think that the conservatives are handily going to win more than 40% of the vote. But they still show
00:03:12.340 the same general trend line. They just have methodologies or samples that just put the liberals
00:03:18.100 a little bit more up in the polls. They might have a little bit more of an urban sample. And even in
00:03:23.020 this ECOS poll, people are thinking, well, see, it shows that Pierre Polyev is not a very popular guy
00:03:28.480 because supposedly it's showing that he has a bad approval rating, even though his approval rating,
00:03:33.160 even at ECOS, is still way ahead of Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh. But let's humor that for a second.
00:03:39.980 This ECOS poll that was only showing the conservatives 12 points ahead, which again is still a majority,
00:03:45.980 has the most wacky regionals you've ever seen. This is an actual view of the regionals
00:03:52.680 from the ECOS poll. This was an actual result. The Saskatchewan-Manitoba regional showed that the
00:03:58.800 liberals were ahead by nine points on the conservatives. Just no. That's no. It's just
00:04:05.700 not true. Saskatchewan is more conservative than Alberta. Is Manitoba more liberal than Alberta and
00:04:12.780 Saskatchewan? More NDP? Yes. But it's not this. In fact, the NDP probably have a better chance of
00:04:19.720 winning more seats than the liberals in Manitoba. So why would they be in third place here? It
00:04:25.440 doesn't make any sense. Really, this is a massive sampling error. There was only 40 people polled in
00:04:32.260 the entire ECOS poll from Saskatchewan and Manitoba. That's not a good poll. I don't know how to say it
00:04:39.320 to you and say it any other any different way. And these are the other regionals. Even Ontario is like
00:04:45.120 pretty decent. Some of the stuff looks good. But even Alberta, the liberals aren't going to get 22%
00:04:51.000 in Alberta. They're going to be at like 15%, 13%. The NDP might be at 22%, 23% since the NDP
00:04:58.000 has more solid ridings in there. Heather McPherson might actually be able to hold on to her riding. 1.00
00:05:03.560 I think Blake Desjardins is completely gone in his. No chance George Chahal as a liberal is going to hold
00:05:09.180 on to his seat. I don't think Randy Boissoneau is going to be able to hold on to his seat there.
00:05:14.320 There's just no... And even then, 32% for the liberals in Atlantic Canada. Again, just know,
00:05:21.080 when you actually see any of the other pollsters polling in these regions, they've all been
00:05:25.600 consistently conservatives ahead in BC, conservatives ahead in Atlantic Canada. The liberals wouldn't be
00:05:31.760 having Sean Casey from Charlottetown saying that Justin Trudeau needs to resign if he truly thought
00:05:38.800 that the liberals were at 32% or even close to that number in that region. Because Charlottetown
00:05:45.500 is one of the last ridings you're going to lose in the Maritimes if the polling's bad. So Sean Casey
00:05:51.900 would be, I guess, jumping the gun. Maybe he doesn't actually know how popular he is. He really went
00:05:56.500 obviously, though, he went after Trudeau because he isn't doing well. Anyways, but there was tons
00:06:01.740 of people, when I scrolled through the replies, I'm not going to do that here because obviously
00:06:05.100 there's many people also calling out how silly the poll is. But a lot of people with the whole
00:06:09.040 hashtag, I stand with Trudeau in their bios, like pretending that this was going to be the big
00:06:14.300 comeback moment for Justin Trudeau. And now I just want to highlight the TikToker Creek Pete here
00:06:19.940 because I think using a lefty TikToker really highlights just how delusional and out of touch so
00:06:25.600 many of these people are who end up believing just hype, just copium-fueled hype around
00:06:31.740 Justin Trudeau and thinking that any day now Pierre Polyev is going to somehow start falling back in
00:06:37.180 the polls because supposedly people don't like the guy. Evidence? I guess Creek Pete doesn't like him.
00:06:43.660 That's the evidence here. I just queued it up to a moment here where we start talking about the
00:06:47.340 approval ratings. But also, that question right there, if you're a leader so unpopular, have you
00:06:53.260 guys seen the favorabilities of Pierre Polyev? Because way higher than Justin Trudeau. I never
00:07:00.680 understand the schtick that this Creek Pete guy does of this little, have you guys ever seen
00:07:06.840 Pierre Polyev's approval ratings? Yes. Yes. They're better than Trudeau's and Jagmeet's. They're far
00:07:12.840 better. But this kind of stuttering, oh, I got you right there kind of voice does not work at all.
00:07:18.280 But I'll let him go. They aren't good. They aren't good, right? The party might be polling well,
00:07:26.680 but Pierre isn't polling well. So does the same question apply? I guess not. No, don't worry about
00:07:34.840 who cares. He literally has a positive approval rating. Pierre Polyev, when you actually look at
00:07:41.980 his individual approval rating, is like plus four, plus five. It's not, you know, crushing the world
00:07:46.980 kind of numbers. Wow, he has 20% net approval rating. Three or four is not bad as a conservative
00:07:52.240 leader, considering that all the media tends to report every little bad rumor about you. Yes,
00:07:58.380 there is negative reporting about Justin Trudeau these days, but it's just because he's so unpopular,
00:08:02.240 the legacy media couldn't survive without calling him out. But overall, Polyev's pretty popular.
00:08:07.180 Generally speaking, conservatives tend to poll much lower in terms of their personal approval ratings
00:08:12.540 than their party does. It's kind of the reverse for Jagmeet Singh, where not a lot of people want him,
00:08:17.720 don't prefer him as the prime minister, but he does pretty well in terms of the NDPs,
00:08:22.680 or I guess it's in reverse, sorry, that's what I meant. Jagmeet Singh does better in his approval
00:08:26.760 ratings overall in terms of how many people like him more than the party actually does,
00:08:31.520 because there's a lot of just generally fluffy, positive stuff said about people like Justin
00:08:36.800 Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh in the media. And that's actually a positive thing for pure Polyev, 1.00
00:08:41.720 that you don't have to like the leader to like what the party stands for. With Justin Trudeau,
00:08:46.680 and I've said this a lot, many times, I haven't said it recently though, but Justin Trudeau's approval
00:08:52.140 rating is almost exactly in line with the party, because Justin Trudeau is the party.
00:08:56.300 pure Polyev is not the party, he is not the conservative party. So you can like pure Polyev, 0.53
00:09:01.860 I like pure Polyev, and I also like the conservative party. You can even like Polyev,
00:09:06.220 but not like everything about the conservative party, but you can trust him to lead the country.
00:09:10.160 And you can also not really like pure Polyev, but you like the conservative ideals of the party.
00:09:15.820 Those are all three options that you can have, liking both, liking one or the other. With the liberals,
00:09:21.440 you can't like the liberal party, but not like Trudeau, because the party is completely subservient
00:09:27.920 to him. They don't even have a mechanism to get rid of him as the leader. But you get all this kind
00:09:32.220 of smarmy, snarky kind of liberal cooing about how Polyev actually has technically a net negative
00:09:39.780 approval rating in this poll by 1%. Is it going to actually make a difference, guys? You think you're
00:09:47.340 actually winning here? I love following Kreek Peep's timeline. I think I'm even following him
00:09:52.880 on X specifically. Every single time a bad poll comes out for Justin Trudeau, it's a rigged poll.
00:09:59.000 If a poll comes out that is a gain for the liberals, technically, suddenly it is a good poll. So he
00:10:05.100 liked the Angus Reid polls in BC that showed the BC NDP ahead, but he thinks that the Angus Reid is now
00:10:11.040 biased towards conservatives on the federal level. These people are just fundamentally irrational,
00:10:16.540 and these aren't all people who vote liberal or NDP, obviously, but the liberal activists have so
00:10:21.800 little to talk about these days, so little positive to glom onto. They've mostly just taken to attacking
00:10:27.560 conservatives for minor, like just nothingness. It's like, I didn't like this random post Polyev made
00:10:35.180 on Twitter talking about this event. You know, he should have used this word, not that word. Guys,
00:10:40.760 you're losing. That's it. Justin Trudeau doesn't have a path to victory anymore. He lost the Maritimes,
00:10:46.240 he lost most of Toronto, most of Ontario in general. He has nothing in BC these days. Even
00:10:52.800 the ECOS poll showed he's only at 13% in British Columbia, and I'd probably say he's probably a bit
00:10:58.160 higher than that. That was probably under-polling the liberals a bit. But other than Montreal, other
00:11:03.240 than the island of Montreal, where is Justin Trudeau getting his support from anymore? It's just nowhere.
00:11:08.800 I'm like wondering if Creep Pete is paid at this point. I'm not sure if he is. I wouldn't actually say
00:11:14.340 that's like a solid thing I'd ever accuse him of. But there are some of these cheerleaders who are 0.95
00:11:18.600 so blatant. Like, it would be better for them to be paid. At least that explains something. At least
00:11:25.260 it becomes less embarrassing that you know at least he was able to pay for a dinner this month because
00:11:30.080 he made these videos. But like, really? I don't really get what people like this are doing this
00:11:37.760 for anymore. Anyways, that's it for me today, guys. That's enough polling for me. If you want
00:11:43.800 to follow the show, obviously subscribe. And if you want any of my recommendations for upcoming
00:11:49.060 leadership races or nominations, both federally and provincially, just sign up at my website,
00:11:54.200 wyattclaypool.com. And you can also support the show by donating to my Give, Send, Go. Those are both
00:11:59.540 in the description of this video below, as well as pinned at the top of the comments. And of course,
00:12:04.300 leave a comment if you want to give me any recommendations on things I can talk about in
00:12:08.380 the future. Anyways, that's it for me today, guys. Have a good one.