The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Justin Trudeau has ZERO path to staying Prime Minister!

00:00:00.160 Hey everyone, Wyatt Claypool here. If you've watched more than a couple of videos from me,

00:00:06.080 you're already pretty well aware of the fact that I love to talk about polling. But if there is one

00:00:11.820 thing I like to talk about even more than polling, it's people who don't understand polls and think

00:00:17.520 Justin Trudeau is actually going to be able to win the 2025 federal election. Spoiler alert,

00:00:23.420 he cannot. He has zero paths to victory right now, and I'm going to show you as well as make fun of

00:00:30.620 some people who truly think that pure Polyev is somehow going to fall on his face before the next

00:00:36.020 general election. But before I get into all that, I'm just going to remind you guys to subscribe to

00:00:41.000 the channel because in my analytics, I see about, you know, 75% of people are not currently subscribed

00:00:47.220 to the channel. So if you've popped in more than once to watch my videos and you like them, make

00:00:51.860 sure to hit the subscribe button and also like this video if you've already done that. Anyways,

00:00:56.920 so there's been a lot of liberal people on social media who whenever Nanos or Ecos puts out a poll

00:01:03.140 showing that the conservatives are only 13 points ahead of the liberals, they truly think that there

00:01:08.620 is going to be an upward trend for Justin Trudeau, that he has momentum. He doesn't, guys. I'm not just

00:01:15.180 saying this because I'm a conservative. Obviously, I want the conservatives to win, but I would be honest

00:01:20.300 if I thought that the conservatives were starting to trail back because I would tell them what they

00:01:24.860 should be doing to improve in the polls. The polls that are showing the conservatives only 13 points

00:01:31.320 ahead are still showing the conservatives winning a big majority. They'd be winning a majority of 15 to

00:01:37.100 25 seats even with just a 13% lead. Most of the polls still show them leading by anywhere from 18% all

00:01:45.760 the way up to 22%. There's even a Main Street poll that showed them at 24% ahead of the federal

00:01:51.840 liberals. I'm just going to show you the current polling on the back end of 338 just to show you

00:01:57.220 what the current numbers are looking like across several different polls. This is all of the polls

00:02:02.940 over the last several weeks here. And you can see, yeah, there's a 12% from Ecos. Ooh, wow, maybe the

00:02:09.220 liberals are catching some momentum. 13 from Nanos, 22 Angus Reid, 22 Abacus Data. Nanos is showing some

00:02:15.940 weaker numbers, but Campaign Research, 17 Abacus, 21 Palace, 22. And it's just Nanos and Ecos basically

00:02:24.020 showing these lower 13s, 15s, and 12s. And even then, it's really just the methodology and sampling

00:02:32.120 techniques of those pollsters. When you actually look at their polls, Justin Trudeau is not catching

00:02:39.520 an ounce of momentum right now. I'll just show you the Nanos poll in depth behind the scenes here

00:02:45.080 and showing how when you actually look at their results, the liberals are not doing well. We see

00:02:50.920 here in 2022, late 2022, that the liberals and the conservatives are somewhat close right here. That's

00:02:56.980 just when pure poly is becoming the leader. And after that, the trend is still consistent with

00:03:02.500 everyone else. They don't think maybe the conservatives are at 44%. I disagree with them.

00:03:07.060 I think that the conservatives are handily going to win more than 40% of the vote. But they still show

00:03:12.340 the same general trend line. They just have methodologies or samples that just put the liberals

00:03:18.100 a little bit more up in the polls. They might have a little bit more of an urban sample. And even in

00:03:23.020 this ECOS poll, people are thinking, well, see, it shows that Pierre Polyev is not a very popular guy

00:03:28.480 because supposedly it's showing that he has a bad approval rating, even though his approval rating,

00:03:33.160 even at ECOS, is still way ahead of Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh. But let's humor that for a second.

00:03:39.980 This ECOS poll that was only showing the conservatives 12 points ahead, which again is still a majority,

00:03:45.980 has the most wacky regionals you've ever seen. This is an actual view of the regionals

00:03:52.680 from the ECOS poll. This was an actual result. The Saskatchewan-Manitoba regional showed that the

00:03:58.800 liberals were ahead by nine points on the conservatives. Just no. That's no. It's just

00:04:05.700 not true. Saskatchewan is more conservative than Alberta. Is Manitoba more liberal than Alberta and

00:04:12.780 Saskatchewan? More NDP? Yes. But it's not this. In fact, the NDP probably have a better chance of

00:04:19.720 winning more seats than the liberals in Manitoba. So why would they be in third place here? It

00:04:25.440 doesn't make any sense. Really, this is a massive sampling error. There was only 40 people polled in

00:04:32.260 the entire ECOS poll from Saskatchewan and Manitoba. That's not a good poll. I don't know how to say it

00:04:39.320 to you and say it any other any different way. And these are the other regionals. Even Ontario is like

00:04:45.120 pretty decent. Some of the stuff looks good. But even Alberta, the liberals aren't going to get 22%

00:04:51.000 in Alberta. They're going to be at like 15%, 13%. The NDP might be at 22%, 23% since the NDP

00:04:58.000 has more solid ridings in there. Heather McPherson might actually be able to hold on to her riding. 1.00

00:05:03.560 I think Blake Desjardins is completely gone in his. No chance George Chahal as a liberal is going to hold

00:05:09.180 on to his seat. I don't think Randy Boissoneau is going to be able to hold on to his seat there.

00:05:14.320 There's just no... And even then, 32% for the liberals in Atlantic Canada. Again, just know,

00:05:21.080 when you actually see any of the other pollsters polling in these regions, they've all been

00:05:25.600 consistently conservatives ahead in BC, conservatives ahead in Atlantic Canada. The liberals wouldn't be

00:05:31.760 having Sean Casey from Charlottetown saying that Justin Trudeau needs to resign if he truly thought

00:05:38.800 that the liberals were at 32% or even close to that number in that region. Because Charlottetown

00:05:45.500 is one of the last ridings you're going to lose in the Maritimes if the polling's bad. So Sean Casey

00:05:51.900 would be, I guess, jumping the gun. Maybe he doesn't actually know how popular he is. He really went

00:05:56.500 obviously, though, he went after Trudeau because he isn't doing well. Anyways, but there was tons

00:06:01.740 of people, when I scrolled through the replies, I'm not going to do that here because obviously

00:06:05.100 there's many people also calling out how silly the poll is. But a lot of people with the whole

00:06:09.040 hashtag, I stand with Trudeau in their bios, like pretending that this was going to be the big

00:06:14.300 comeback moment for Justin Trudeau. And now I just want to highlight the TikToker Creek Pete here

00:06:19.940 because I think using a lefty TikToker really highlights just how delusional and out of touch so

00:06:25.600 many of these people are who end up believing just hype, just copium-fueled hype around

00:06:31.740 Justin Trudeau and thinking that any day now Pierre Polyev is going to somehow start falling back in

00:06:37.180 the polls because supposedly people don't like the guy. Evidence? I guess Creek Pete doesn't like him.

00:06:43.660 That's the evidence here. I just queued it up to a moment here where we start talking about the

00:06:47.340 approval ratings. But also, that question right there, if you're a leader so unpopular, have you

00:06:53.260 guys seen the favorabilities of Pierre Polyev? Because way higher than Justin Trudeau. I never

00:07:00.680 understand the schtick that this Creek Pete guy does of this little, have you guys ever seen

00:07:06.840 Pierre Polyev's approval ratings? Yes. Yes. They're better than Trudeau's and Jagmeet's. They're far

00:07:12.840 better. But this kind of stuttering, oh, I got you right there kind of voice does not work at all.

00:07:18.280 But I'll let him go. They aren't good. They aren't good, right? The party might be polling well,

00:07:26.680 but Pierre isn't polling well. So does the same question apply? I guess not. No, don't worry about

00:07:34.840 who cares. He literally has a positive approval rating. Pierre Polyev, when you actually look at

00:07:41.980 his individual approval rating, is like plus four, plus five. It's not, you know, crushing the world

00:07:46.980 kind of numbers. Wow, he has 20% net approval rating. Three or four is not bad as a conservative

00:07:52.240 leader, considering that all the media tends to report every little bad rumor about you. Yes,

00:07:58.380 there is negative reporting about Justin Trudeau these days, but it's just because he's so unpopular,

00:08:02.240 the legacy media couldn't survive without calling him out. But overall, Polyev's pretty popular.

00:08:07.180 Generally speaking, conservatives tend to poll much lower in terms of their personal approval ratings

00:08:12.540 than their party does. It's kind of the reverse for Jagmeet Singh, where not a lot of people want him,

00:08:17.720 don't prefer him as the prime minister, but he does pretty well in terms of the NDPs,

00:08:22.680 or I guess it's in reverse, sorry, that's what I meant. Jagmeet Singh does better in his approval

00:08:26.760 ratings overall in terms of how many people like him more than the party actually does,

00:08:31.520 because there's a lot of just generally fluffy, positive stuff said about people like Justin

00:08:36.800 Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh in the media. And that's actually a positive thing for pure Polyev, 1.00

00:08:41.720 that you don't have to like the leader to like what the party stands for. With Justin Trudeau,

00:08:46.680 and I've said this a lot, many times, I haven't said it recently though, but Justin Trudeau's approval

00:08:52.140 rating is almost exactly in line with the party, because Justin Trudeau is the party.

00:08:56.300 pure Polyev is not the party, he is not the conservative party. So you can like pure Polyev, 0.53

00:09:01.860 I like pure Polyev, and I also like the conservative party. You can even like Polyev,

00:09:06.220 but not like everything about the conservative party, but you can trust him to lead the country.

00:09:10.160 And you can also not really like pure Polyev, but you like the conservative ideals of the party.

00:09:15.820 Those are all three options that you can have, liking both, liking one or the other. With the liberals,

00:09:21.440 you can't like the liberal party, but not like Trudeau, because the party is completely subservient

00:09:27.920 to him. They don't even have a mechanism to get rid of him as the leader. But you get all this kind

00:09:32.220 of smarmy, snarky kind of liberal cooing about how Polyev actually has technically a net negative

00:09:39.780 approval rating in this poll by 1%. Is it going to actually make a difference, guys? You think you're

00:09:47.340 actually winning here? I love following Kreek Peep's timeline. I think I'm even following him

00:09:52.880 on X specifically. Every single time a bad poll comes out for Justin Trudeau, it's a rigged poll.

00:09:59.000 If a poll comes out that is a gain for the liberals, technically, suddenly it is a good poll. So he

00:10:05.100 liked the Angus Reid polls in BC that showed the BC NDP ahead, but he thinks that the Angus Reid is now

00:10:11.040 biased towards conservatives on the federal level. These people are just fundamentally irrational,

00:10:16.540 and these aren't all people who vote liberal or NDP, obviously, but the liberal activists have so

00:10:21.800 little to talk about these days, so little positive to glom onto. They've mostly just taken to attacking

00:10:27.560 conservatives for minor, like just nothingness. It's like, I didn't like this random post Polyev made

00:10:35.180 on Twitter talking about this event. You know, he should have used this word, not that word. Guys,

00:10:40.760 you're losing. That's it. Justin Trudeau doesn't have a path to victory anymore. He lost the Maritimes,

00:10:46.240 he lost most of Toronto, most of Ontario in general. He has nothing in BC these days. Even

00:10:52.800 the ECOS poll showed he's only at 13% in British Columbia, and I'd probably say he's probably a bit

00:10:58.160 higher than that. That was probably under-polling the liberals a bit. But other than Montreal, other

00:11:03.240 than the island of Montreal, where is Justin Trudeau getting his support from anymore? It's just nowhere.

00:11:08.800 I'm like wondering if Creep Pete is paid at this point. I'm not sure if he is. I wouldn't actually say

00:11:14.340 that's like a solid thing I'd ever accuse him of. But there are some of these cheerleaders who are 0.95

00:11:18.600 so blatant. Like, it would be better for them to be paid. At least that explains something. At least

00:11:25.260 it becomes less embarrassing that you know at least he was able to pay for a dinner this month because

00:11:30.080 he made these videos. But like, really? I don't really get what people like this are doing this

00:11:37.760 for anymore. Anyways, that's it for me today, guys. That's enough polling for me. If you want

00:11:43.800 to follow the show, obviously subscribe. And if you want any of my recommendations for upcoming

00:11:49.060 leadership races or nominations, both federally and provincially, just sign up at my website,

00:11:54.200 wyattclaypool.com. And you can also support the show by donating to my Give, Send, Go. Those are both

00:11:59.540 in the description of this video below, as well as pinned at the top of the comments. And of course,

00:12:04.300 leave a comment if you want to give me any recommendations on things I can talk about in

00:12:08.380 the future. Anyways, that's it for me today, guys. Have a good one.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - November 04, 2024

Justin Trudeau has ZERO path to staying Prime Minister!

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