Justin Trudeau hits record high unpopularity!
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Summary
Justin Trudeau's approval rating is at a record low of 34%, and it's not even close to being good enough to make him a contender for re-election. In this episode, I compare his numbers to those of his challenger, Priti Polyev, and try to figure out why this is happening.
Transcript
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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau set himself a new personal record recently, not one he should go
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around bragging about. This is a record high disapproval rating. Abacus Data just released
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a new poll showing that 59% of Canadians have a negative impression of Trudeau, with only 25%
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still having a positive impression. Now, before I dive a little bit more into these numbers,
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I just want to quickly mention I, Wyatt Claypool, am running for the Calgary Signal Hill Conservative
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Party nomination. So if you live in Calgary Signal Hill, buy a membership, hopefully vote for me
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number one whenever the nomination date comes around, or just check which riding you live in
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if you're in the city of Calgary. I know a lot of people don't know which federal ridings they
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live in. Sorry for the shameless plug, I will get back to Justin Trudeau's approval numbers.
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I'd like to point out that Justin Trudeau, I've said this in other videos, his 25% approval rating
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maps basically exactly to the Liberals' 24% national polling numbers. And if you follow
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abacus polling for a long time, you'll notice that basically for the past year and a half,
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the Liberals' polling numbers have almost matched exactly with Justin Trudeau's approval rating.
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They only ever differ by maybe one or two points. And it's because unlike the Conservative Party,
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Justin Trudeau is basically the entire Liberal Party. If you do not like Justin Trudeau, there's no
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chance you're voting for the Liberals. There's no extra little neat policies the Liberals have,
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or maybe you like the philosophy of the Liberal Party, but not Trudeau. Because the two things are like,
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almost one to one the same. Whatever the Liberal Party does is exactly what Justin Trudeau wants.
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Whereas with Pir Polyev or even Jagmeet Singh and the NDP, there are wings to the party. There are MPs
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who are very independent, who have slightly different opinions, or they have greatly different opinions
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on different issues. That's an appeal for a party that allows it to overcome a leader who doesn't
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please everybody. And that's pretty much every leader. The problem with Trudeau is that they've banked on
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the old Trudeau mania from the 70s and from 2015 to keep carrying Trudeau into his fourth election
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cycle. And at this point, the polish is off and nobody cares anymore about Justin Trudeau supposedly
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being a charismatic, fresh leader on the world stage. He's a very, in a certain sense, old politician
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in the way he actually acts. He's extremely venile, very lazy in how he does his work. And he also just
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barely seems to try. He's as lazy as like an 85-year-old man. Anyways, I just want to then compare him
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to Pir Polyev's polling numbers because Abacus Data put out the net results for each one. That
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Pir Polyev right now has a net positive 6% approval rating. Not too bad considering all of the negative
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media attention that Pir Polyev gets for basically no reason other than the fact that the media backs
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Trudeau. But Trudeau has a negative 34% approval rating. And think about it here too. Like 25%,
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that number is probably not going to shoot back up. Trudeau's had some bad moments of approval in the
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last eight years, but it was usually brief and it corrected. You don't have a 25 or sub 30% approval
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rating for six months and then Canadians decide to give you a second look. They've given Trudeau now third,
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fourth and fifth looks. So it'd be a bit odd for anyone to say, you know, I'm going to give that
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guy another shot. That's why the only tactic the Liberals have these days is trying to compare with
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no actual policy to be able to show that they're similar on. They're just trying to compare Pir Polyev
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to Donald Trump, assuming that somehow they can strike up the exact same voter turnout that Biden had
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to defeat Trump in 2020. I don't know. They're just assuming that if Polyev's negatives are high
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enough, maybe Canadians rally around Trudeau. It's really not going to happen. And I think the fact
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that even the NDP's numbers are stagnating means that I think a lot of Canadians are actually kind
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of wise to the fact that it's left-wing policy that's not working. It's not the Liberal Party.
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It's the policy that the Liberals, the NDP, and frankly, even the Greens all share together.
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I want to dig into a little bit of what Polyev's numbers have looked like over the past few months.
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This is Trudeau's, of course. But if I go down here, the of Pir Polyev's impressions
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and notice how at the very start his leadership was very negative. The reason that that happened
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was because as a new leader, very few Canadians actually know who you are. It's kind of almost
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like it's very unheard of in Canadian politics for an opposition leader to immediately have super high
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name recognition because Canadian politics doesn't have the entertainment value of American politics.
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So new leaders have to prove themselves. This very much so was a problem with
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both Erin O'Toole and Andrew Scheer, not even commenting on the fact that Erin O'Toole was
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effectively a Liberal. Erin O'Toole did a terrible job even making Canadians aware he was alive and a
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sentient human being. By election day, I guarantee only about 70% of voters even knew who Erin O'Toole
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was despite being the main opposition to Justin Trudeau in that election. He was boring so Canadians did not
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show up for him. That's where every once in a while, I do have people criticize the idea that
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Pierre Polley is too negative. He's sometimes too bombastic or he's too critical all the time. It's
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like he needs to do that to one, prove he's not like Erin O'Toole and just agrees with Trudeau on
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everything. And two, by actually being negative, by being bombastic, by being very critical, you get a
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lot more attention. And as an opposition leader, your name recognition matters so much. What you'll notice in
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this poll too, that his actual approval ratings numbers are very low, like approval and disapproval
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rating numbers, when you combine them are very low. And that even proves even at this point in 2024,
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a lot of Canadians still don't know who Polley is. You'll notice that when you add up Trudeau's numbers,
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it's almost to 100% with them taking off the undecided people away from this poll. The amount of
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undecideds in this poll with Polley is extremely high. And that's pretty impressive that he actually has
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good, like positive approval, despite the fact that the vast majority of Canadians
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just hear that he's like an evil extremist conspiracy theorist. And it proves also that
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a lot of Canadians are actually looking into what the media says and fact checking it themselves and
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realizing that it's a bunch of nonsense every time they go after Polley for somehow being extreme or
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too right wing or something like that for the Canadian public. And anyways, I wanted to get down to
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here. And this was also a, I think, an interesting result that we had. This is the desire for change
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poll results, not in any nice bar graph. I like when things are nice bar graphs, but this is
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different demographics, different regions desire for change. So British Columbia 62%, Alberta 63%,
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Ontario, Ontarians 55%, Atlantic Canadians 47%, Quebecers 33% really shows that that is where the Liberal
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Party's main strength is still, it's in Quebec. And I guarantee a lot of Bloc people are saying they
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don't want change because even though the Bloc can never form government, they like the fact that at
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least they're in a position where they can influence policy here and there, since Trudeau's in a minority.
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That's all that like when that's a highlight for Trudeau that Quebec doesn't want him gone yet.
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Not a good, not a good sign, especially because Quebec tends to want a lot of things that the rest of
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the country does not want. So when you're very well liked by Quebec as a whole, usually that means
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you're probably doing some things wrong when it comes to Western Canada and the rest of Eastern
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Canada. Anyways, moving on. Then you also have those who voted Liberal in 2021, 23%. Yes, not very high,
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but imagine the fact that these people literally gave you their vote in 2021, and now a quarter of
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them want you out. That is a little bit of a red flag for your party when a quarter of your people
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not just might not vote for you, they're just unenthused, actively want your government changed.
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They're probably not voting NDP, I can guarantee, because all of these voters probably very much
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understand that the NDP would not actually, like voting NDP would not result in a change. Either you'd
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get the same sort of minority government or you would just have the Conservatives win anyways from
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vote splitting the Liberals. And then after that, you have those who voted for the Conservatives in
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2021, 82%. Millennials, 54%. Gen Z, 50. Seniors, 52%. Those living in the GTA Metro Toronto area, 52%.
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Those living in Metro Vancouver, 60%. Those are scary numbers. That is the area that Justin Trudeau relies
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on the votes on votes in order to actually be able to win any election. He needs a lot of votes around the
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GTA and Vancouver areas in order to make sure that his Atlantic Canadian vote and Quebec vote can
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actually result in a government forming. He will always do well in a lot of the Atlantic provinces and
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in the Montreal area. But when he's starting to lose votes around the GTA outside of the Toronto downtown
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core, that is his margin of victory for an actual government. Now, here's another thing I think is quite
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interesting. And you can see the reelect a Liberal government has slumped. This is which of the following
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comes closest to your view. These are all voters. And remember, 24% of people, and this is where I
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think people even in the in the abacus national poll are lying a bit to themselves. This one that shows that
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the Conservatives are up 17 points. I think the Liberals could actually come in much lower than 24%.
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Because look at this, there's 16% of people who want to reelect a Liberal government. 31% say it's
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time for change, but there's a good alternative. I think that's usually you can basically put a lot of
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the NDP Greens voters and some of the Liberals into that category that they don't like the Liberals
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anymore, but they are going to vote Liberal because they don't like Polyev because they believe some lie of
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the media that Polyev is extreme. Sorry, I'll make this a little bit bigger on screen. So yeah,
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you have the 16 down there, the 31 who don't want change but don't know what kind of change,
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and then you have 53 who have time for change and there are good alternatives. That is basically
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going to be, you know, the Conservative voters, some of the PPC people saying Bernier is a great
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alternative even though, I'm sorry, Bernier cannot win and it's kind of Bernier's fault because he has
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never actually figured out how to appeal to a local riding, riding's population. Being on Twitter all
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day does not help. But 53% is more than enough that the Conservatives can work with in order to
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form a majority. As you've probably heard in the past, it doesn't usually happen with the Liberals
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because they can win governments without needing this many votes, although it does help when they're
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trying to form a majority. The magic number, especially for Conservatives, is getting at least
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40% of the popular vote. So what Polyev needs to do is effectively win four-fifths of the people who
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think that we need a change and that there's a good alternative. I guarantee a lot of the people
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who think there's no good alternative can be swayed over time, but Polyev just needs to run the table
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on those who want a change to actually occur. It's not impossible at all because a lot of the people
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who are saying they want our Liberals re-elected or saying that there's no good alternative, they've
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already self-selected themselves out of ever voting Conservative, and the people who think there's a
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good alternative are usually not going to be the NDP who know that their party's never going to form
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a government itself, and so this is currently the best possible thing they have going.
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They're the type of people who will say it's good for a change even though it's kind of like
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Stockholm Syndrome with the NDP. The NDP has no ability to actually get anything better than what
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they have right now, but their own voters will say it's time for a change and there's good alternatives.
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Even though them voting for the NDP, the best possible result they could get is what's currently
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occurring now with Justin Trudeau running the government and every once in a while Jagmeet Singh whines at him
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and maybe adds a couple billion dollars to a bloated government program. That's all they can get.
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But with 53% wanting a change and having a go alternative party, I don't see how the Liberals
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come back, especially when they're still fighting with their own base on whether or not this government
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should stay in power. When they've lost 23% of their own voters from 21 and now only 16% of people,
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which proves that even that 23% of Liberals who want change is probably a bit low, when only 16% of
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Canadians overall want a re-elected Liberal government, that is basically like sticking a
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pin in it, Justin Trudeau's gone. There's no way of re-electing this man. He is going to have to
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spend hundreds of thousands of dollars in each riding just convincing his old voters to show up
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and those are probably not going to be very excited voters. They're reluctant and when you have a
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reluctant base, you cannot win an election. Just look at Aaron O'Toole, just look at Andrew Scheer.
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They had reluctant faces of voters because they really weren't running on super, super solid
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conservative policies. And a lot of people just stayed home or some people kind of volunteered,
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kind of donated. And when that's your attitude going into election, there's no chance you're
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actually going to pull off an upset victory. Now, show me the apathetic campaign in this world
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that's ever actually won a re-election effort other than when their opposition is completely
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also unstrung and they don't know what to do. Apathy kills electoral chances. And I guess I'll
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leave you guys without that. Other than that, I have my usual give, send, go linked in the description
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of this video below. I am being sued by a billionaire, myself and the National Telegraph.
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We are winning that lawsuit, but the man's dragging it out. He has no evidence. He basically filed no
00:13:14.320
evidence against us that we defamed him. He even filed his evidence so late he owed me $1,800
00:13:19.440
by a judge's order at one point. It's a clown show for him. So we're going to win this lawsuit,
00:13:24.560
but giving any money to our legal fundraiser does help us bear the burden of the costs,
00:13:29.040
especially because running this show, running for office does make the $25,000 quite a bit
00:13:34.720
of a drag on my finances overall. And then other than that, also, I have linked in the description
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below my campaign website for Calgary Signal Hill. Again, a reminder, if you live in Calgary Signal Hill,
00:13:45.200
please buy a membership, vote for me number one on your ballot. And I guess if you live in other
00:13:50.880
ridings also by conservative party memberships, if a nomination comes up in your area, you'll want
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to make sure to be able to stop a red Tory from getting the nomination. There's a lot of conservatives
00:14:00.800
out there, conservative people, quote unquote, who they're only running for the conservatives
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because the liberals have no chance in their area. That happens in a lot of safe conservative
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ridings because it's easier for a liberal to pretend to be a conservative than it is for a conservative
00:14:13.360
to pretend to be a liberal. Because to be a liberal, you have to be like foaming at the
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mouth on social issues. You have to scorn big businesses. You have to basically just talk about,
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you just have to talk about social programs and all this stuff. It's a very odd mindset to get into
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to be a liberal, but to be conservative, it's a very logical mindset, which I think says something
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about conservatism that you can just say, well, I'm a socially liberal person, but I think we need
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to lower taxes and make government smaller. You get a lot of people, including in my nomination,
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who effectively are doing that. They run as very socially left-wing people, but they'll promise
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they'll cut taxes a little bit. It's like, if you're just going to be a low tax version of Trudeau,
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who cares? That's not exactly a dream scenario for me in a conservative government that we can
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have a low tax version of what Trudeau is doing or a lower tax version. A lot of these people aren't
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even that low tax. It's like Alison Redford's who, when they get into government, they run on fiscal
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responsibility, but they still raise taxes and spending. Anyway, sorry, now I'm rambling on,
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but I hope that you all enjoy my ramblings. That should be it for me today, and I hope you all have