The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Justin Trudeau hits record high unpopularity!

00:00:00.000 Prime Minister Justin Trudeau set himself a new personal record recently, not one he should go

00:00:04.920 around bragging about. This is a record high disapproval rating. Abacus Data just released

00:00:09.640 a new poll showing that 59% of Canadians have a negative impression of Trudeau, with only 25%

00:00:15.280 still having a positive impression. Now, before I dive a little bit more into these numbers,

00:00:19.760 I just want to quickly mention I, Wyatt Claypool, am running for the Calgary Signal Hill Conservative

00:00:24.220 Party nomination. So if you live in Calgary Signal Hill, buy a membership, hopefully vote for me

00:00:28.400 number one whenever the nomination date comes around, or just check which riding you live in

00:00:32.860 if you're in the city of Calgary. I know a lot of people don't know which federal ridings they

00:00:36.220 live in. Sorry for the shameless plug, I will get back to Justin Trudeau's approval numbers.

00:00:41.500 I'd like to point out that Justin Trudeau, I've said this in other videos, his 25% approval rating

00:00:47.680 maps basically exactly to the Liberals' 24% national polling numbers. And if you follow

00:00:53.680 abacus polling for a long time, you'll notice that basically for the past year and a half,

00:00:58.960 the Liberals' polling numbers have almost matched exactly with Justin Trudeau's approval rating.

00:01:04.000 They only ever differ by maybe one or two points. And it's because unlike the Conservative Party,

00:01:09.440 Justin Trudeau is basically the entire Liberal Party. If you do not like Justin Trudeau, there's no

00:01:14.720 chance you're voting for the Liberals. There's no extra little neat policies the Liberals have,

00:01:18.640 or maybe you like the philosophy of the Liberal Party, but not Trudeau. Because the two things are like,

00:01:23.680 almost one to one the same. Whatever the Liberal Party does is exactly what Justin Trudeau wants.

00:01:29.200 Whereas with Pir Polyev or even Jagmeet Singh and the NDP, there are wings to the party. There are MPs

00:01:34.720 who are very independent, who have slightly different opinions, or they have greatly different opinions

00:01:39.840 on different issues. That's an appeal for a party that allows it to overcome a leader who doesn't

00:01:45.920 please everybody. And that's pretty much every leader. The problem with Trudeau is that they've banked on

00:01:50.960 the old Trudeau mania from the 70s and from 2015 to keep carrying Trudeau into his fourth election

00:01:58.080 cycle. And at this point, the polish is off and nobody cares anymore about Justin Trudeau supposedly

00:02:04.000 being a charismatic, fresh leader on the world stage. He's a very, in a certain sense, old politician

00:02:10.800 in the way he actually acts. He's extremely venile, very lazy in how he does his work. And he also just 0.66

00:02:17.520 barely seems to try. He's as lazy as like an 85-year-old man. Anyways, I just want to then compare him 0.81

00:02:25.920 to Pir Polyev's polling numbers because Abacus Data put out the net results for each one. That

00:02:31.600 Pir Polyev right now has a net positive 6% approval rating. Not too bad considering all of the negative

00:02:38.080 media attention that Pir Polyev gets for basically no reason other than the fact that the media backs

00:02:43.360 Trudeau. But Trudeau has a negative 34% approval rating. And think about it here too. Like 25%,

00:02:50.560 that number is probably not going to shoot back up. Trudeau's had some bad moments of approval in the

00:02:56.960 last eight years, but it was usually brief and it corrected. You don't have a 25 or sub 30% approval

00:03:03.680 rating for six months and then Canadians decide to give you a second look. They've given Trudeau now third,

00:03:09.280 fourth and fifth looks. So it'd be a bit odd for anyone to say, you know, I'm going to give that

00:03:14.240 guy another shot. That's why the only tactic the Liberals have these days is trying to compare with 0.94

00:03:20.480 no actual policy to be able to show that they're similar on. They're just trying to compare Pir Polyev

00:03:25.760 to Donald Trump, assuming that somehow they can strike up the exact same voter turnout that Biden had

00:03:31.840 to defeat Trump in 2020. I don't know. They're just assuming that if Polyev's negatives are high

00:03:37.360 enough, maybe Canadians rally around Trudeau. It's really not going to happen. And I think the fact

00:03:42.560 that even the NDP's numbers are stagnating means that I think a lot of Canadians are actually kind

00:03:47.280 of wise to the fact that it's left-wing policy that's not working. It's not the Liberal Party.

00:03:51.520 It's the policy that the Liberals, the NDP, and frankly, even the Greens all share together.

00:03:57.280 I want to dig into a little bit of what Polyev's numbers have looked like over the past few months.

00:04:01.440 This is Trudeau's, of course. But if I go down here, the of Pir Polyev's impressions 0.96

00:04:06.000 and notice how at the very start his leadership was very negative. The reason that that happened

00:04:10.960 was because as a new leader, very few Canadians actually know who you are. It's kind of almost

00:04:16.640 like it's very unheard of in Canadian politics for an opposition leader to immediately have super high

00:04:21.840 name recognition because Canadian politics doesn't have the entertainment value of American politics.

00:04:26.560 So new leaders have to prove themselves. This very much so was a problem with

00:04:31.200 both Erin O'Toole and Andrew Scheer, not even commenting on the fact that Erin O'Toole was

00:04:35.280 effectively a Liberal. Erin O'Toole did a terrible job even making Canadians aware he was alive and a 0.96

00:04:41.280 sentient human being. By election day, I guarantee only about 70% of voters even knew who Erin O'Toole 0.85

00:04:47.600 was despite being the main opposition to Justin Trudeau in that election. He was boring so Canadians did not

00:04:54.080 show up for him. That's where every once in a while, I do have people criticize the idea that

00:04:58.400 Pierre Polley is too negative. He's sometimes too bombastic or he's too critical all the time. It's

00:05:03.760 like he needs to do that to one, prove he's not like Erin O'Toole and just agrees with Trudeau on

00:05:08.800 everything. And two, by actually being negative, by being bombastic, by being very critical, you get a

00:05:14.800 lot more attention. And as an opposition leader, your name recognition matters so much. What you'll notice in

00:05:21.520 this poll too, that his actual approval ratings numbers are very low, like approval and disapproval

00:05:27.840 rating numbers, when you combine them are very low. And that even proves even at this point in 2024,

00:05:33.440 a lot of Canadians still don't know who Polley is. You'll notice that when you add up Trudeau's numbers,

00:05:37.760 it's almost to 100% with them taking off the undecided people away from this poll. The amount of

00:05:42.880 undecideds in this poll with Polley is extremely high. And that's pretty impressive that he actually has

00:05:50.560 good, like positive approval, despite the fact that the vast majority of Canadians

00:05:55.600 just hear that he's like an evil extremist conspiracy theorist. And it proves also that

00:06:00.560 a lot of Canadians are actually looking into what the media says and fact checking it themselves and

00:06:05.280 realizing that it's a bunch of nonsense every time they go after Polley for somehow being extreme or

00:06:10.720 too right wing or something like that for the Canadian public. And anyways, I wanted to get down to

00:06:15.440 here. And this was also a, I think, an interesting result that we had. This is the desire for change

00:06:23.120 poll results, not in any nice bar graph. I like when things are nice bar graphs, but this is

00:06:28.480 different demographics, different regions desire for change. So British Columbia 62%, Alberta 63%,

00:06:34.800 Ontario, Ontarians 55%, Atlantic Canadians 47%, Quebecers 33% really shows that that is where the Liberal

00:06:42.000 Party's main strength is still, it's in Quebec. And I guarantee a lot of Bloc people are saying they

00:06:48.560 don't want change because even though the Bloc can never form government, they like the fact that at

00:06:53.200 least they're in a position where they can influence policy here and there, since Trudeau's in a minority.

00:06:58.160 That's all that like when that's a highlight for Trudeau that Quebec doesn't want him gone yet.

00:07:03.040 Not a good, not a good sign, especially because Quebec tends to want a lot of things that the rest of

00:07:07.920 the country does not want. So when you're very well liked by Quebec as a whole, usually that means

00:07:13.680 you're probably doing some things wrong when it comes to Western Canada and the rest of Eastern

00:07:17.600 Canada. Anyways, moving on. Then you also have those who voted Liberal in 2021, 23%. Yes, not very high,

00:07:25.440 but imagine the fact that these people literally gave you their vote in 2021, and now a quarter of

00:07:31.360 them want you out. That is a little bit of a red flag for your party when a quarter of your people 0.87

00:07:38.640 not just might not vote for you, they're just unenthused, actively want your government changed.

00:07:44.080 They're probably not voting NDP, I can guarantee, because all of these voters probably very much

00:07:48.880 understand that the NDP would not actually, like voting NDP would not result in a change. Either you'd

00:07:53.840 get the same sort of minority government or you would just have the Conservatives win anyways from

00:07:58.720 vote splitting the Liberals. And then after that, you have those who voted for the Conservatives in

00:08:03.680 2021, 82%. Millennials, 54%. Gen Z, 50. Seniors, 52%. Those living in the GTA Metro Toronto area, 52%.

00:08:14.880 Those living in Metro Vancouver, 60%. Those are scary numbers. That is the area that Justin Trudeau relies

00:08:22.320 on the votes on votes in order to actually be able to win any election. He needs a lot of votes around the

00:08:28.560 GTA and Vancouver areas in order to make sure that his Atlantic Canadian vote and Quebec vote can

00:08:34.240 actually result in a government forming. He will always do well in a lot of the Atlantic provinces and

00:08:39.440 in the Montreal area. But when he's starting to lose votes around the GTA outside of the Toronto downtown

00:08:46.000 core, that is his margin of victory for an actual government. Now, here's another thing I think is quite

00:08:53.120 interesting. And you can see the reelect a Liberal government has slumped. This is which of the following

00:08:58.480 comes closest to your view. These are all voters. And remember, 24% of people, and this is where I

00:09:05.120 think people even in the in the abacus national poll are lying a bit to themselves. This one that shows that

00:09:10.240 the Conservatives are up 17 points. I think the Liberals could actually come in much lower than 24%.

00:09:14.960 Because look at this, there's 16% of people who want to reelect a Liberal government. 31% say it's

00:09:22.960 time for change, but there's a good alternative. I think that's usually you can basically put a lot of

00:09:27.840 the NDP Greens voters and some of the Liberals into that category that they don't like the Liberals

00:09:33.680 anymore, but they are going to vote Liberal because they don't like Polyev because they believe some lie of

00:09:38.960 the media that Polyev is extreme. Sorry, I'll make this a little bit bigger on screen. So yeah,

00:09:42.880 you have the 16 down there, the 31 who don't want change but don't know what kind of change,

00:09:47.360 and then you have 53 who have time for change and there are good alternatives. That is basically

00:09:52.160 going to be, you know, the Conservative voters, some of the PPC people saying Bernier is a great

00:09:57.600 alternative even though, I'm sorry, Bernier cannot win and it's kind of Bernier's fault because he has

00:10:02.320 never actually figured out how to appeal to a local riding, riding's population. Being on Twitter all

00:10:08.160 day does not help. But 53% is more than enough that the Conservatives can work with in order to

00:10:14.320 form a majority. As you've probably heard in the past, it doesn't usually happen with the Liberals

00:10:18.960 because they can win governments without needing this many votes, although it does help when they're

00:10:23.360 trying to form a majority. The magic number, especially for Conservatives, is getting at least

00:10:27.760 40% of the popular vote. So what Polyev needs to do is effectively win four-fifths of the people who

00:10:35.280 think that we need a change and that there's a good alternative. I guarantee a lot of the people

00:10:39.280 who think there's no good alternative can be swayed over time, but Polyev just needs to run the table

00:10:44.320 on those who want a change to actually occur. It's not impossible at all because a lot of the people

00:10:49.600 who are saying they want our Liberals re-elected or saying that there's no good alternative, they've

00:10:53.440 already self-selected themselves out of ever voting Conservative, and the people who think there's a

00:10:58.000 good alternative are usually not going to be the NDP who know that their party's never going to form

00:11:03.200 a government itself, and so this is currently the best possible thing they have going.

00:11:08.080 They're the type of people who will say it's good for a change even though it's kind of like

00:11:11.840 Stockholm Syndrome with the NDP. The NDP has no ability to actually get anything better than what

00:11:17.680 they have right now, but their own voters will say it's time for a change and there's good alternatives.

00:11:22.400 Even though them voting for the NDP, the best possible result they could get is what's currently

00:11:27.120 occurring now with Justin Trudeau running the government and every once in a while Jagmeet Singh whines at him

00:11:31.840 and maybe adds a couple billion dollars to a bloated government program. That's all they can get. 0.81

00:11:37.120 But with 53% wanting a change and having a go alternative party, I don't see how the Liberals

00:11:42.160 come back, especially when they're still fighting with their own base on whether or not this government

00:11:46.640 should stay in power. When they've lost 23% of their own voters from 21 and now only 16% of people,

00:11:54.000 which proves that even that 23% of Liberals who want change is probably a bit low, when only 16% of

00:12:00.080 Canadians overall want a re-elected Liberal government, that is basically like sticking a

00:12:05.360 pin in it, Justin Trudeau's gone. There's no way of re-electing this man. He is going to have to

00:12:11.360 spend hundreds of thousands of dollars in each riding just convincing his old voters to show up

00:12:16.880 and those are probably not going to be very excited voters. They're reluctant and when you have a

00:12:22.400 reluctant base, you cannot win an election. Just look at Aaron O'Toole, just look at Andrew Scheer.

00:12:27.920 They had reluctant faces of voters because they really weren't running on super, super solid

00:12:33.120 conservative policies. And a lot of people just stayed home or some people kind of volunteered,

00:12:38.160 kind of donated. And when that's your attitude going into election, there's no chance you're

00:12:43.040 actually going to pull off an upset victory. Now, show me the apathetic campaign in this world

00:12:49.360 that's ever actually won a re-election effort other than when their opposition is completely

00:12:54.000 also unstrung and they don't know what to do. Apathy kills electoral chances. And I guess I'll

00:13:00.160 leave you guys without that. Other than that, I have my usual give, send, go linked in the description

00:13:05.440 of this video below. I am being sued by a billionaire, myself and the National Telegraph.

00:13:09.600 We are winning that lawsuit, but the man's dragging it out. He has no evidence. He basically filed no

00:13:14.320 evidence against us that we defamed him. He even filed his evidence so late he owed me $1,800

00:13:19.440 by a judge's order at one point. It's a clown show for him. So we're going to win this lawsuit, 0.97

00:13:24.560 but giving any money to our legal fundraiser does help us bear the burden of the costs,

00:13:29.040 especially because running this show, running for office does make the $25,000 quite a bit

00:13:34.720 of a drag on my finances overall. And then other than that, also, I have linked in the description

00:13:40.240 below my campaign website for Calgary Signal Hill. Again, a reminder, if you live in Calgary Signal Hill,

00:13:45.200 please buy a membership, vote for me number one on your ballot. And I guess if you live in other

00:13:50.880 ridings also by conservative party memberships, if a nomination comes up in your area, you'll want

00:13:55.440 to make sure to be able to stop a red Tory from getting the nomination. There's a lot of conservatives

00:14:00.800 out there, conservative people, quote unquote, who they're only running for the conservatives

00:14:04.800 because the liberals have no chance in their area. That happens in a lot of safe conservative

00:14:08.480 ridings because it's easier for a liberal to pretend to be a conservative than it is for a conservative

00:14:13.360 to pretend to be a liberal. Because to be a liberal, you have to be like foaming at the

00:14:17.840 mouth on social issues. You have to scorn big businesses. You have to basically just talk about,

00:14:23.920 you just have to talk about social programs and all this stuff. It's a very odd mindset to get into

00:14:27.760 to be a liberal, but to be conservative, it's a very logical mindset, which I think says something

00:14:32.080 about conservatism that you can just say, well, I'm a socially liberal person, but I think we need

00:14:37.280 to lower taxes and make government smaller. You get a lot of people, including in my nomination,

00:14:42.480 who effectively are doing that. They run as very socially left-wing people, but they'll promise

00:14:48.560 they'll cut taxes a little bit. It's like, if you're just going to be a low tax version of Trudeau,

00:14:53.200 who cares? That's not exactly a dream scenario for me in a conservative government that we can

00:14:58.400 have a low tax version of what Trudeau is doing or a lower tax version. A lot of these people aren't

00:15:03.200 even that low tax. It's like Alison Redford's who, when they get into government, they run on fiscal 0.89

00:15:07.680 responsibility, but they still raise taxes and spending. Anyway, sorry, now I'm rambling on,

00:15:12.960 but I hope that you all enjoy my ramblings. That should be it for me today, and I hope you all have

00:15:18.240 a great weekend.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - January 12, 2024

Justin Trudeau hits record high unpopularity!

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