Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada are back in the bottom third of the polls. This is the worst polling result they ve ever had in their eight and a half years in office, and it shows that the party is in serious trouble.
00:00:00.000This quite possibly might be one of the worst polling results Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada have ever had in their eight and a half years in office.
00:00:10.080It's not just bad because they're far back in the polls. That's what all the polls have been showing in the past few months.
00:00:15.660The problem for the Liberals is that it demonstrates that there's no ability for them to actually come back before the next election in a year and a half.
00:00:23.020This poll from Ipsos has the Conservative Party and Pure Polly at 44%, the Liberals and Justin Trudeau at 25%, and the NDP at 16%.
00:00:32.460The reason that this is so devastating is because the NDP is collapsing at the same time the Liberals are collapsing.
00:00:39.900For the Liberals to be able to mount a comeback, they need the NDP to not be on life support.
00:00:45.080The NDP needs to be somewhat coming up in the polls so that they can hold down the Conservatives in the western parts of the country where the NDP is a little bit more viable.
00:00:54.100And then the Liberals need to be able to grow their support in Ontario so that they can hold on to most of the seats around the Toronto Donut.
00:01:00.940That's not happening, and even the Bloc Quebecois are still holding their support, so the Liberals are not going to be able to mine out more seats in Quebec.
00:01:07.840So Trudeau is what we colloquially call screwed.
00:01:11.140He doesn't actually have anything to win over voters with.
00:01:14.720He's been fear-mongering about Pure Polly.
00:01:16.680And usually you've got to wait a little bit and see if the new narrative they're trying to spin is going to appeal to Canadians.
00:01:23.040It's been going on for like a year now.
00:01:26.920Them saying that Pure Polly is far right and he's hanging out with the far right and he wants to take away all government spending from these great programs we're running, it's not working.
00:01:36.960Nobody thinks that Trudeau has the secret sauce to make the country better.
00:01:40.720You can't be in office for three terms and then say, guys, but if you give me a fourth term, everything's going to be utopia.
00:01:47.460I know everything sucks now, but it's just because you haven't elected me a fourth time.
00:01:51.980Eventually people have turned off of you, and although because I've door-knocked a lot, and I am in a very conservative riding, shameless plug, I'm Wyatt Claypool and I'm running for the Conservative Party nomination in Calgary Signal Hill, so mark me number one on your ballot if you're a conservative in that riding whenever the nomination date is set.
00:02:08.380But in my riding, whenever I bump into people who don't like pure Polly, one, it's extremely rare, and two, they can't actually articulate why they even dislike Polly.
00:02:18.380With Justin Trudeau and conservative voters, they can fully articulate what they don't like about Justin Trudeau.
00:02:25.080Most of the time when you ask someone, what don't you like about Justin Trudeau?
00:02:27.940The response I've gotten from literally hundreds of people is, do you have two hours?
00:02:32.960Because they can go through every single social, fiscal policy, foreign policy decision he's made and prove why anyone with an actual brain would not have done that unless they seemingly had contempt for the Canadian public.
00:02:45.880Justin Trudeau demonstrates that he doesn't really like Canadians or share their values at all.
00:02:50.540He only cares about people who live in downtown Toronto and Montreal, and that's what's alienated so many people.
00:02:56.140It's not just that he's a bad prime minister, it's that he's a bad prime minister and doesn't really care that it's harming you.
00:03:01.780And this right here is another polling result that I think demonstrates why the Liberals are not going to be able to claw their way back.
00:03:08.280This one from the narrative research poll that also recently came out.
00:03:12.820The question was, compared to the average Canadian, I am, 61% of people say less wealthy, 25% say equally wealthy, and 14% say wealthier.
00:03:23.680And although that's not a super shocking result in the sense that obviously you're not going to have most people saying they're wealthier than the average,
00:03:30.500the fact that 61% of people, the majority, think they're less wealthy than the average Canadian proves that people are in sort of despair at this point.
00:03:40.740And it's hard to move people from despair to voting for you.
00:03:44.000People didn't like Trudeau before the 2019 election or the 21 election.
00:03:47.820That's why even Aaron O'Toole, as a very soft and weak Conservative Party leader, was still able to win the popular vote.
00:03:53.760There was just a lot of anti-Trudeau voters out there.
00:03:55.840The problem was, in those two elections, is that people didn't like Trudeau, but the policy decisions he had made had not fully come home to roost with all their negative consequences.
00:04:07.240So a lot of people were kind of allowing themselves to be pliable on the idea that, well, the Conservatives are actually a bigger risk.
00:04:15.460Because in a certain sense, a lot of the negative consequences of Trudeau's policies hadn't quite arrived.
00:04:22.120Unless Trudeau can somehow make the country better in a year and a half, there's not going to be the sort of voter who's willing to be swayed back.
00:04:29.560There's maybe voters who won't vote Conservative and they'll stay home.
00:04:33.300But voters staying home doesn't actually win you the prime ministership of the country.
00:04:39.040And when people say, because I know people are going to say, well, you can't trust the elections.
00:04:43.260There was foreign interference in 2021 and 2019.
00:04:46.640They're going to somehow cheat to win.
00:04:48.820You have to actually look at the last two elections.
00:04:51.060It's been kind of remarkable that Scheer didn't win and Aaron O'Toole didn't win in the sense that they were kind of playing on easy mode.
00:04:58.400But because the Conservative Party at the time, I would argue, was very dominated by red Tory thinking, they ended up suppressing their own voter turnout.
00:05:06.320Because Justin Trudeau did not maintain or grow his support in 2019 or 21.
00:05:10.720In 2019, he actually lost like 800,000 votes that he had in 2015.
00:05:15.860And then in 2021, he lost like another 300,000 votes, which is insane because that was an election where people had nothing better to do but follow politics because a lot of people were stuck at home in lockdowns.
00:05:27.320It's just that Aaron O'Toole and Scheer before that just inspired people so little that even though Trudeau was losing votes, he was still able to hold on to a minority government.
00:05:36.700I don't exactly blame Scheer as much as I do O'Toole because I think Scheer was effectively being bullied by many of the people who have been expelled from the Conservative Party into acting more liberal, which killed awful of his appeal.
00:05:48.880Because when people identify a problem with the incumbent government that Trudeau is awful at his job, we need something different.
00:05:55.420You don't say, well, I'm going to trim around the edges and make his bad policies better.
00:05:58.680Why would people come out and vote for that?
00:06:01.040Because even if they work hard, they donate, they volunteer, or they just simply show up and vote at the polls, what are they going to vote to make things 5% better?
00:06:11.020People want the reforms to be made good and hard and so that we can reverse the issues, not make the issues a little bit less impactful.
00:06:18.120That's why in British Columbia, nobody's voting for the United Party because the United Party does not actually represent real change from the BCNDP.
00:06:25.160That's why the Conservatives out in that province provincially have all the momentum, even though that party effectively didn't exist a year and a half ago.
00:06:32.860People vote for what they want, and what they want is real change.
00:06:36.980United cannot put together any sort of marketing narrative-type push.
00:06:43.420They can't spend enough on advertisements to convince people that they're the ones who should be running the government.
00:06:49.160That's the funny thing, is money in politics doesn't nearly have as big of an effect as people think.
00:06:55.600Michael Bloomberg proved this with flying colors in the 2020 Democratic Party primaries, where he spent close to a billion dollars and got absolutely nowhere.
00:07:06.160I think he came in sixth place in terms of electoral votes, and he dumped hundreds of millions of dollars into Super Tuesday states.
00:07:12.620The difference was, in that primary, Joe Biden was considered the safe option that Democrats wanted to vote for.
00:07:19.420And I'm not taking an opinion on who was a good candidate, who was a bad candidate.
00:07:22.700I don't care. I'm not American. I don't vote in their politics, so it's not my job to care.
00:07:26.900But the theory was that so many people push is that, well, someone has a big purse to win.
00:07:31.540Tom Steyer, in the same race, didn't get any electoral votes, to my knowledge.
00:07:35.560And that guy also spent like $500 million. At some point, you also have to be the people that voters naturally want.
00:07:43.200The money simply turns out the people who would have shown up for you in the first place.
00:07:47.140That's the problem with Trudeau. It doesn't even matter if they launder money through a Rive scam in order to get some more campaign spending money.
00:07:54.380They're not going to be able to turn out anyone, because the base of people they have available to turn out is nothing.
00:07:58.440That's what effectively polls show. Polls are not votes, but polls demonstrate that 44% of people are very reachable for the Conservatives.
00:08:05.68025% for the Liberals, 16% for the NDP, 8% for the Bloc, 3% for the PPC, and 2% for the Green Party.
00:08:11.280But if you don't have the money, you can't turn them out.
00:08:14.300The Conservatives have the money, and they have a large wealth of support in order to draw from four votes on election day.
00:08:20.020The Liberals are broke and have no money, and all of their campaign strategies, all of their governing strategies right now,
00:08:27.100are doubling down on the 25% they already have.
00:08:30.460That's a shrinking base over time, because the people that the Liberals keep playing to,
00:08:35.320are the more radical, orange Liberals, who want extremely progressive policies.
00:08:40.640And it doesn't matter how badly the country is being affected by these bad policies,
00:08:43.920the solution is always to double down.
00:08:45.980And that's what the Liberals have been doing.
00:08:47.820Dental care, pharma care, all these other subsidy programs, EV subsidies,
00:08:51.880it's all doubling down on the progressive base,
00:08:54.800who believes that government spending can drive an economy forward.
00:08:57.760Like when Harper left office, I think public spending was like 35% of the economy.