The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - May 23, 2024


Justin Trudeau is in his worst polling position ever!


Episode Stats


Length

11 minutes

Words per minute

201.41745

Word count

2,302

Sentence count

119

Harmful content

Misogyny

2

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada are back in the bottom third of the polls. This is the worst polling result they ve ever had in their eight and a half years in office, and it shows that the party is in serious trouble.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
00:00:00.000 This quite possibly might be one of the worst polling results Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada have ever had in their eight and a half years in office.
00:00:10.080 It's not just bad because they're far back in the polls. That's what all the polls have been showing in the past few months.
00:00:15.660 The problem for the Liberals is that it demonstrates that there's no ability for them to actually come back before the next election in a year and a half.
00:00:23.020 This poll from Ipsos has the Conservative Party and Pure Polly at 44%, the Liberals and Justin Trudeau at 25%, and the NDP at 16%.
00:00:32.460 The reason that this is so devastating is because the NDP is collapsing at the same time the Liberals are collapsing.
00:00:39.900 For the Liberals to be able to mount a comeback, they need the NDP to not be on life support.
00:00:45.080 The NDP needs to be somewhat coming up in the polls so that they can hold down the Conservatives in the western parts of the country where the NDP is a little bit more viable.
00:00:54.100 And then the Liberals need to be able to grow their support in Ontario so that they can hold on to most of the seats around the Toronto Donut.
00:01:00.940 That's not happening, and even the Bloc Quebecois are still holding their support, so the Liberals are not going to be able to mine out more seats in Quebec.
00:01:07.840 So Trudeau is what we colloquially call screwed.
00:01:11.140 He doesn't actually have anything to win over voters with.
00:01:14.720 He's been fear-mongering about Pure Polly.
00:01:16.680 And usually you've got to wait a little bit and see if the new narrative they're trying to spin is going to appeal to Canadians.
00:01:23.040 It's been going on for like a year now.
00:01:25.240 Everyone knows it's not working.
00:01:26.920 Them saying that Pure Polly is far right and he's hanging out with the far right and he wants to take away all government spending from these great programs we're running, it's not working.
00:01:36.960 Nobody thinks that Trudeau has the secret sauce to make the country better.
00:01:40.720 You can't be in office for three terms and then say, guys, but if you give me a fourth term, everything's going to be utopia.
00:01:47.460 I know everything sucks now, but it's just because you haven't elected me a fourth time.
00:01:51.980 Eventually people have turned off of you, and although because I've door-knocked a lot, and I am in a very conservative riding, shameless plug, I'm Wyatt Claypool and I'm running for the Conservative Party nomination in Calgary Signal Hill, so mark me number one on your ballot if you're a conservative in that riding whenever the nomination date is set.
00:02:08.380 But in my riding, whenever I bump into people who don't like pure Polly, one, it's extremely rare, and two, they can't actually articulate why they even dislike Polly.
00:02:18.380 With Justin Trudeau and conservative voters, they can fully articulate what they don't like about Justin Trudeau.
00:02:25.080 Most of the time when you ask someone, what don't you like about Justin Trudeau?
00:02:27.940 The response I've gotten from literally hundreds of people is, do you have two hours?
00:02:32.960 Because they can go through every single social, fiscal policy, foreign policy decision he's made and prove why anyone with an actual brain would not have done that unless they seemingly had contempt for the Canadian public.
00:02:45.880 Justin Trudeau demonstrates that he doesn't really like Canadians or share their values at all.
00:02:50.540 He only cares about people who live in downtown Toronto and Montreal, and that's what's alienated so many people.
00:02:56.140 It's not just that he's a bad prime minister, it's that he's a bad prime minister and doesn't really care that it's harming you.
00:03:01.780 And this right here is another polling result that I think demonstrates why the Liberals are not going to be able to claw their way back.
00:03:08.280 This one from the narrative research poll that also recently came out.
00:03:12.820 The question was, compared to the average Canadian, I am, 61% of people say less wealthy, 25% say equally wealthy, and 14% say wealthier.
00:03:23.680 And although that's not a super shocking result in the sense that obviously you're not going to have most people saying they're wealthier than the average,
00:03:30.500 the fact that 61% of people, the majority, think they're less wealthy than the average Canadian proves that people are in sort of despair at this point.
00:03:40.740 And it's hard to move people from despair to voting for you.
00:03:44.000 People didn't like Trudeau before the 2019 election or the 21 election.
00:03:47.820 That's why even Aaron O'Toole, as a very soft and weak Conservative Party leader, was still able to win the popular vote.
00:03:53.760 There was just a lot of anti-Trudeau voters out there.
00:03:55.840 The problem was, in those two elections, is that people didn't like Trudeau, but the policy decisions he had made had not fully come home to roost with all their negative consequences.
00:04:07.240 So a lot of people were kind of allowing themselves to be pliable on the idea that, well, the Conservatives are actually a bigger risk.
00:04:15.460 Because in a certain sense, a lot of the negative consequences of Trudeau's policies hadn't quite arrived.
00:04:20.960 They have fully arrived.
00:04:22.120 Unless Trudeau can somehow make the country better in a year and a half, there's not going to be the sort of voter who's willing to be swayed back.
00:04:29.560 There's maybe voters who won't vote Conservative and they'll stay home.
00:04:33.300 But voters staying home doesn't actually win you the prime ministership of the country.
00:04:39.040 And when people say, because I know people are going to say, well, you can't trust the elections.
00:04:43.260 There was foreign interference in 2021 and 2019.
00:04:46.640 They're going to somehow cheat to win.
00:04:48.820 You have to actually look at the last two elections.
00:04:51.060 It's been kind of remarkable that Scheer didn't win and Aaron O'Toole didn't win in the sense that they were kind of playing on easy mode.
00:04:58.400 But because the Conservative Party at the time, I would argue, was very dominated by red Tory thinking, they ended up suppressing their own voter turnout.
00:05:06.320 Because Justin Trudeau did not maintain or grow his support in 2019 or 21.
00:05:10.720 In 2019, he actually lost like 800,000 votes that he had in 2015.
00:05:15.860 And then in 2021, he lost like another 300,000 votes, which is insane because that was an election where people had nothing better to do but follow politics because a lot of people were stuck at home in lockdowns.
00:05:27.320 It's just that Aaron O'Toole and Scheer before that just inspired people so little that even though Trudeau was losing votes, he was still able to hold on to a minority government.
00:05:36.700 I don't exactly blame Scheer as much as I do O'Toole because I think Scheer was effectively being bullied by many of the people who have been expelled from the Conservative Party into acting more liberal, which killed awful of his appeal.
00:05:48.880 Because when people identify a problem with the incumbent government that Trudeau is awful at his job, we need something different.
00:05:55.420 You don't say, well, I'm going to trim around the edges and make his bad policies better.
00:05:58.680 Why would people come out and vote for that?
00:06:01.040 Because even if they work hard, they donate, they volunteer, or they just simply show up and vote at the polls, what are they going to vote to make things 5% better?
00:06:08.960 No, people want full fat reform. 0.99
00:06:11.020 People want the reforms to be made good and hard and so that we can reverse the issues, not make the issues a little bit less impactful.
00:06:18.120 That's why in British Columbia, nobody's voting for the United Party because the United Party does not actually represent real change from the BCNDP.
00:06:25.160 That's why the Conservatives out in that province provincially have all the momentum, even though that party effectively didn't exist a year and a half ago.
00:06:32.860 People vote for what they want, and what they want is real change.
00:06:36.980 United cannot put together any sort of marketing narrative-type push.
00:06:43.420 They can't spend enough on advertisements to convince people that they're the ones who should be running the government.
00:06:49.160 That's the funny thing, is money in politics doesn't nearly have as big of an effect as people think.
00:06:55.600 Michael Bloomberg proved this with flying colors in the 2020 Democratic Party primaries, where he spent close to a billion dollars and got absolutely nowhere.
00:07:06.160 I think he came in sixth place in terms of electoral votes, and he dumped hundreds of millions of dollars into Super Tuesday states.
00:07:12.620 The difference was, in that primary, Joe Biden was considered the safe option that Democrats wanted to vote for.
00:07:19.420 And I'm not taking an opinion on who was a good candidate, who was a bad candidate.
00:07:22.700 I don't care. I'm not American. I don't vote in their politics, so it's not my job to care.
00:07:26.900 But the theory was that so many people push is that, well, someone has a big purse to win.
00:07:31.540 Tom Steyer, in the same race, didn't get any electoral votes, to my knowledge.
00:07:35.560 And that guy also spent like $500 million. At some point, you also have to be the people that voters naturally want.
00:07:43.200 The money simply turns out the people who would have shown up for you in the first place.
00:07:47.140 That's the problem with Trudeau. It doesn't even matter if they launder money through a Rive scam in order to get some more campaign spending money.
00:07:54.380 They're not going to be able to turn out anyone, because the base of people they have available to turn out is nothing.
00:07:58.440 That's what effectively polls show. Polls are not votes, but polls demonstrate that 44% of people are very reachable for the Conservatives.
00:08:05.680 25% for the Liberals, 16% for the NDP, 8% for the Bloc, 3% for the PPC, and 2% for the Green Party.
00:08:11.280 But if you don't have the money, you can't turn them out.
00:08:14.300 The Conservatives have the money, and they have a large wealth of support in order to draw from four votes on election day.
00:08:20.020 The Liberals are broke and have no money, and all of their campaign strategies, all of their governing strategies right now,
00:08:27.100 are doubling down on the 25% they already have.
00:08:30.460 That's a shrinking base over time, because the people that the Liberals keep playing to,
00:08:35.320 are the more radical, orange Liberals, who want extremely progressive policies.
00:08:40.640 And it doesn't matter how badly the country is being affected by these bad policies,
00:08:43.920 the solution is always to double down.
00:08:45.980 And that's what the Liberals have been doing.
00:08:47.820 Dental care, pharma care, all these other subsidy programs, EV subsidies,
00:08:51.880 it's all doubling down on the progressive base,
00:08:54.800 who believes that government spending can drive an economy forward.
00:08:57.760 Like when Harper left office, I think public spending was like 35% of the economy.
00:09:02.540 These days, it's like 44%.
00:09:04.300 And when you adjust that by adding in private spending being spurred on by government spending through like subsidies,
00:09:10.500 it's like more than half of our economy is now public sector operated or public sector influenced,
00:09:17.240 which is effectively, in my mind, a socialist economy.
00:09:20.280 And Canadians don't want that. 0.96
00:09:21.960 It doesn't matter how much you say that Polyev wants to cut things.
00:09:25.080 67% of people want cuts.
00:09:27.020 It's actually more than the Conservatives even have in terms of the support in these polls.
00:09:31.280 And 67% of people, which means there's other people in other parties reachable,
00:09:35.440 67% of people think we spend too much.
00:09:37.620 That's crazy in Canada, where oftentimes people have very generous hearts
00:09:41.560 and always think that more public spending will solve problems.
00:09:44.560 These days, people know it doesn't, and they want less of it.
00:09:47.700 Anyways, that should be it for me today, guys.
00:09:49.760 You can donate to my legal fund in the description below.
00:09:52.840 It's the Give, Send, Go link.
00:09:53.960 Thank you to anyone who has given money to that.
00:09:56.300 I'm fighting a billionaire developer in court for defamation.
00:09:59.300 Defamation against that he's claiming that the National Telegraph had conducted or whatever,
00:10:04.460 even though he hasn't provided any evidence of defamation in two and a half years.
00:10:08.020 He's just dragging this out.
00:10:09.200 It's a lawfare case.
00:10:11.020 And then also, again, if you live in Calgary, Signal Hill, and are a Conservative Party member,
00:10:15.440 make sure to vote for me number one on your ballot
00:10:17.360 so we can have an actual Conservative representing our riding.
00:10:20.440 I'm not even kidding.
00:10:21.660 An opposing camp put out an ad on social media bragging that when they were the Minister of Social Services in Alberta,
00:10:29.840 they spent $10 million matching donations to food banks to get people the help they needed,
00:10:34.780 even though they supported the crazy, strict lockdowns that ended up putting people into such bad economic straits,
00:10:41.920 financial straits, that they needed those food bank services.
00:10:44.840 That is such a liberal play.
00:10:46.660 You break someone's legs and then give yourself credit because you drove them to the hospital.
00:10:51.400 That's effectively what you're saying.
00:10:53.000 Hey, I helped get hungry people food after I made it so that they were hungry.
00:10:57.700 Okay, man, whatever.
00:10:58.840 I guess that's the brand that some people who are Conservatives want to run on these days.
00:11:03.800 But other than that, again, you can join the TNT Telegram channel.
00:11:07.200 In the description is a video below, TNT Telegram.
00:11:10.180 It gives you all of our posts in chronological order, and I even post some other podcasts I go on there
00:11:15.320 or other podcasts Daniel Boardman goes on so you can always see what we're up to,
00:11:19.540 whether it's on this channel or other channels, without having to rely on the algorithm showing you videos in your feed.
00:11:25.140 Have a good one.