The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - April 24, 2024


Justin Trudeau's Liberals are the most hated party in Canada!


Episode Stats


Length

11 minutes

Words per minute

184.5984

Word count

2,175

Sentence count

135

Harmful content

Hate speech

2

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party came first in a recent Ipsos poll, but it's not a good one. In fact, it's one of the worst polls of any party in recent memory. And it doesn't get any easier than that.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.160 Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party actually managed to come first place in a polling question this week,
00:00:06.480 but I don't think it's going to be one that they're beaming with pride about and pinning to the front of their refrigerator,
00:00:12.340 because this question from Ipsos effectively asks Canadians, which political party do you hate the most?
00:00:18.840 So this is the results from the Ipsos poll. The Liberals scored 32% on a question that read,
00:00:24.460 is there a party you would never consider voting for next election? And they specifically spell NEVER in all caps to make it like a definite never,
00:00:32.820 not that I just don't prefer them to other parties, I specifically never will consider voting for them in this next election.
00:00:40.480 And someone might try and point out, well, the Liberals only scored 32% on this poll, and the Conservatives were only five points behind.
00:00:47.660 But what you have to remember is in a country like Canada, the Liberals are kind of like the in-the-middle party.
00:00:53.120 Out of all the relevant parties, like not counting like the PPC and other small parties,
00:00:58.780 the Conservatives are the most right party, and the Liberals are between the Conservatives and the NDP and the Greens.
00:01:05.440 And so if you're not voting NDP or Green, you're naturally then probably going to vote Liberal.
00:01:09.960 Or if you're not voting Conservative, the next most logical party would be voting Liberal,
00:01:14.340 just based on, you know, a political spectrum kind of view of how politics works.
00:01:18.700 And with 32%, basically a third of the country saying that they will never vote for you,
00:01:23.820 that is scary if you are supposed to be the moderate Liberal Party.
00:01:28.040 And it's because they are no longer the moderate Liberal Party.
00:01:30.500 They are almost indistinguishable from the radicalism that tends to possess the NDP.
00:01:35.320 They have different policies on certain issues,
00:01:37.360 but their intensity and their need to change things and meddle with things
00:01:41.440 is the exact same type of mentality towards public policy.
00:01:44.960 And so this is a horrible result for Justin Trudeau.
00:01:48.260 And also remember, the Conservatives are only five points behind,
00:01:51.160 but this is in a country where the legacy media is paid by the Liberal government,
00:01:56.000 and they trash the Conservatives all day long.
00:01:58.780 And still, only about a quarter of Canadians won't consider voting for the Conservatives,
00:02:03.240 but a third of Canadians won't consider voting for the Liberals
00:02:06.100 in what is supposed to be a default Liberal country.
00:02:08.900 It's so pathetic.
00:02:10.340 Here's another good result from the same pollster.
00:02:13.220 And they show that Polyev is absolutely dominating Justin Trudeau 0.79
00:02:16.520 on the preferred Prime Minister polling.
00:02:18.440 But pure Polyev is at 35% for preferred Prime Minister,
00:02:22.620 with Justin Trudeau at 18% and Singh at 14%.
00:02:25.300 So the gap between Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh is only 4%,
00:02:28.920 but the gap between Justin Trudeau and pure Polyev is 17%.
00:02:33.180 That is an absolute, like, clocking for Justin Trudeau.
00:02:37.680 And they're still 22% unsure.
00:02:39.660 The preferred Prime Minister polling is always a little bit unsure,
00:02:42.800 because there's always people who only know who Justin Trudeau is,
00:02:45.660 because they're not too into politics.
00:02:47.160 So unless you've ever been a party leader for six or seven years,
00:02:50.220 people don't really know your name.
00:02:51.660 And so Polyev getting 35% really demonstrates that his base has been solidified.
00:02:56.920 I'll show you what the top line numbers were,
00:02:59.140 because this is reflecting that Appicus data is not an outlier,
00:03:03.360 showing the Conservatives at 20% leading the Liberals.
00:03:06.680 The Conservatives in this Ipsos poll were at 43% with the Liberal Party at 24%,
00:03:11.940 and the NDP at 19% with the Bloc at 8%.
00:03:14.740 And the Bloc at 8% is actually important, 1.00
00:03:16.720 because the Bloc ended at 7% in this last federal election,
00:03:19.780 or a little bit above 7%.
00:03:21.680 I think if you round it up, it's technically the same.
00:03:24.140 But the Bloc has actually been gaining,
00:03:26.000 so that means that they might start stealing some other Liberal ridings in Quebec.
00:03:30.420 And that's why the Liberals have no chance of winning.
00:03:33.560 They have no province they're headed in.
00:03:36.000 Yes, the Conservatives aren't ahead of the Liberals in Quebec,
00:03:38.480 but the Bloc is still leading the Liberals in Quebec.
00:03:40.880 So the Liberals have literally not a single province,
00:03:43.340 maybe outside of PEI,
00:03:45.300 that they have the highest or they have the plurality of the vote.
00:03:49.440 It's absolutely pathetic to witness.
00:03:51.680 And this brings me to wanting to just quickly talk about ECOS polling and Frank Graves.
00:03:57.960 I tend to generally trust pollsters.
00:03:59.880 Pollsters are in the business of trying to accurately predict the next election's results,
00:04:04.400 so that they can market themselves to companies as being very accurate in their market research,
00:04:08.780 so that they will get paid to do market research for different products and services,
00:04:13.500 because these pollsters actually usually do their political polling for free,
00:04:16.660 unless a party or other entity paid them to do it,
00:04:19.540 just because they want more in-depth numbers.
00:04:21.820 But Frank Graves, he's hyper left-wing.
00:04:24.040 He thinks like pure poly is an autocrat.
00:04:26.100 He's a dictator, all this stuff.
00:04:27.520 He's out of his mind.
00:04:28.500 And so I've gotten to the point where I just don't believe his polling numbers,
00:04:32.520 because when you see them, they're absolutely wacky.
00:04:34.820 And then I want to talk to you about him like getting mad at me
00:04:38.140 for making slight criticisms of what his polling numbers were showing.
00:04:41.860 So Frank Graves shows in his report that he still hasn't released.
00:04:46.480 It was supposed to come out today, but it's delayed until tomorrow.
00:04:48.620 Fair enough.
00:04:48.980 He said that his top-line numbers were the Conservative Party at 36.2%,
00:04:54.540 the Liberals at 26.6%, and the NDP at 23.9%.
00:04:58.620 Now, I don't believe these poll numbers.
00:05:01.620 And again, it's not because I don't like them, so I don't believe them.
00:05:04.020 When I say that polls need to be backed up by social data,
00:05:07.820 I mean to a reasonable person,
00:05:09.660 does this polling number seem to reflect the mood in the country?
00:05:13.400 Has any negative or positive news stories broken that would justify this polling
00:05:18.820 deviating from what we've been seeing from other pollsters this much?
00:05:22.380 So the Conservatives are only barely leading the Liberals compared to the other polls.
00:05:27.520 So in Abacus, they're leading them by 20 points.
00:05:30.020 In this poll, they're leading them by less than 10 points.
00:05:33.000 And what also really throws me off and shows me that this poll is probably not accurate
00:05:37.180 is the NDP at 23.9%.
00:05:40.220 The NDP is broke, and most polls, like this episode's one,
00:05:43.480 are showing them at 19%, 18%.
00:05:45.240 Every once in a while, they score 20.
00:05:47.060 NDP at 24, that's an outlier.
00:05:49.260 That is a definite outlier, because outside of the Jack Layton years,
00:05:52.960 the NDP never got close to those results,
00:05:55.160 especially with Jagmeet Singh at the helm.
00:05:56.900 The NDP is floundering.
00:05:58.640 So the idea that somehow the NDP is ascendant right now is insane.
00:06:03.420 And think about it this way, too.
00:06:05.220 Aaron O'Toole got like 34.3 or so percent of the vote.
00:06:08.880 So with Pierre Polyev now leading the party,
00:06:12.520 somehow the party has gained less than 2% in the polls, according to Frank Graves.
00:06:17.660 And the guy hasn't done a poll in six months.
00:06:19.320 I think the guy's getting a little bit rusty.
00:06:21.600 Someone might need to put some oil on his hinges.
00:06:23.760 And then he came back at me when I pointed out that maybe your poll numbers might not be correct,
00:06:28.880 because these seem like fairly odd numbers,
00:06:31.780 considering the current mood in Canada on policy, on the economy, on social issues.
00:06:38.300 It's all lean and conservative.
00:06:39.900 And not lean and conservative like the conservatives have gained 1% of people.
00:06:43.920 No, it feels like the conservatives have gained anywhere from 10% to 20%
00:06:47.960 over what they were used to be scoring.
00:06:50.660 So going up to the mid-40s or low-40s.
00:06:53.700 That feels like where the conservatives are at.
00:06:55.820 And again, I'm not just saying because I feel that way,
00:06:57.900 because I'm a conservative and I want them to do well.
00:06:59.920 I'm saying that because that's just what it looks like.
00:07:02.520 It obviously is how people are talking out there.
00:07:05.780 And Frank Graves got back to me after I made this mild criticism.
00:07:08.400 And he says, well, in the 2021 election,
00:07:11.500 I was only 0.1% off on what the liberals got in the election.
00:07:16.340 Our last poll was within 0.1% of what the liberals actually scored.
00:07:20.700 And I looked it up.
00:07:21.620 And yes, in the last, actually the last three polls that, sorry, ECOS did,
00:07:25.720 Frank Graves had the liberals within 0.1% to 0.3%.
00:07:30.160 That was very accurate on the liberals.
00:07:32.260 He's good at polling liberal people.
00:07:34.620 But he was off of what the conservatives got by 6.5% to 7% in all of his last three polls.
00:07:42.320 And it wasn't good before that either.
00:07:44.200 I was just only looking at the last three polls when people are supposed to be more decided.
00:07:48.800 So if anything, polls actually tend to get more accurate the closer you get to the election.
00:07:52.220 6.5% to a 7% miss is crazy.
00:07:57.020 That's the entire election.
00:07:58.320 He was predicting that the conservatives might only get 26.7% to 27.3% of the vote.
00:08:04.840 No, the conservatives got 34%.
00:08:07.480 And that's what O'Toole, like a dead mule leading them.
00:08:10.760 They somehow still got 34%.
00:08:12.260 But no, I'm not going to believe Frank Graves' numbers.
00:08:15.360 When he missed the entire election, I don't care if you were in a decimal point of the liberal numbers.
00:08:19.280 If your conservative number is off, that's massive.
00:08:23.160 My friend Chris from the Great Canadian Bagel podcast, he pointed out when you actually looked at all of the other parties that Frank Graves got off in that election, he had like an average error rate of like 10% misallocated points.
00:08:38.380 You might as well just be drawing numbers out of a hat at that point if you're that off of one of the major parties.
00:08:44.520 He was effectively predicting a pretty big liberal party majority, even though he was only saying that they were going to get like 33% of the vote.
00:08:52.540 33% but the conservatives are down to 26% usually means you're picking up crazy amounts of ridings in eastern Canada and even areas like Manitoba, Vancouver, Montreal, the Atlantic provinces.
00:09:03.500 So yeah, no, Frank Graves is full of it.
00:09:06.160 And I don't care about, again, I will give credence like a Main Street poll in British Columbia showing that the BC conservatives are only within six points.
00:09:15.700 And you could say, well, all the other polls were showing the NDP over and above like 12% or 15%.
00:09:20.500 Yes, but the mood of the province shows that there's a lot of people who have a lot of problems the way David Eby is running things.
00:09:27.460 And even the other pollsters who tend to have more of an urban bias and show the NDP still having a 10 to 13 point lead, that lead has still been shrinking in all of the recent polls they've been doing.
00:09:39.000 And some of these pollsters do kind of like rolling averages.
00:09:43.040 So they only pull like 300 people at a time and they just report those 300 people, but they kind of pull more often.
00:09:49.140 But their polls tend to over-exaggerate people who work downtown office jobs, who obviously lean more left and progressive.
00:09:57.780 So, but Frank Graves, he's, again, he's just spinning a bottle.
00:10:00.920 And whatever number it lands on around the clock, that's what he makes, that's what he predicts.
00:10:06.320 It's insane how you can mess up polls this badly and completely miss the mood of the country.
00:10:12.740 And there's no shock that a man who thinks pure poly is an autocrat and includes a disinformation index, disinformation, misinformation index in his polling,
00:10:21.020 in which he grades party voters on how much disinformation they believe, which the definition of is you disagree with Frank Graves pretty much.
00:10:28.800 Yeah, I don't trust him.
00:10:30.500 Anyways, that should be it for me today, guys.
00:10:32.560 If you live in my part of Calgary, again, I, Wyatt Claypool, I'm running for the Calgary Signal Hill Conservative Party nomination.
00:10:39.860 So if you live on this west side of Calgary in the sort of, you know, Aspen, Crestmont Valley Ridge, you know, Curry Barracks, you know, Coach Hill, Cougar Ridge area,
00:10:49.140 go check out my website, WyattClaypool.com in the description below and buy a membership and vote for me number one.
00:10:54.300 Or you can also donate to the TNT Legal Fund, also linked in the description below in the Give, Send, Go link.
00:11:00.680 We're being sued by a billionaire developer for defamation.
00:11:03.400 And after two years, he still hasn't provided any evidence for how we defamed him.
00:11:07.300 He's just trying to bully us in court for having disagreed with him and reported stuff that had already been reported before about him.
00:11:14.060 Anyways, that should be it for me today, guys.
00:11:16.440 Have a good one.
00:11:16.960 Have a good one.