Every time things start getting good for the Liberals, they cause three more scandals, and all of their soft supporters say, "Ugh, I'm not going to vote Liberal anymore." And then they fall off the polling cliff.
00:05:39.160The magic number these days for the Conservative Party is 44%.
00:05:43.820And that might as well be a majority of voters in these provinces considering it's a multi-party system where when you add just the PPC and Green Party numbers to it,
00:05:55.580The NDP and Liberal numbers are less than the Conservatives if they're combined.
00:06:00.540So the Conservatives could potentially sweep not just like many of the Southern Ontario ridings, Northern Ontario, like, you know, London, some Peel region ridings.
00:06:10.540They could win Toronto ridings, like downtown Toronto ridings because of how split up the left is these days.
00:06:16.740And it's not split up because of vote splitting going on.
00:06:20.200It's more split up because neither party is doing a good job at anything and nobody wants to vote for the NDP or the Liberals.
00:06:27.120Like, they might do it out of habit, but that's not exactly a great source of strength for the Liberals relying on habit helping them out here.
00:06:37.740Here are the Conservatives winning pretty every single demographic, 60 and over all the way down to 18 to 29.
00:06:44.520And I always highlight this every time we start talking about age brackets.
00:06:48.820The Liberals are actually a very old party.
00:06:50.860You can see them disproportionately doing well with people who are 60 and over.
00:06:55.200And the NDP does well with those who are 18 to 29.
00:06:58.200This is a big problem for the Liberals because if they sort of dump in this next election and it takes them a few years to recover, the problem is the NDP has been taking all the lefty younger voters and the Liberal Party becomes the party for pensioners who that doesn't like, you know, the program doesn't really appeal to those in younger age groups.
00:07:18.440So the Liberals have a big demographic problem that in the next 15 years, they could be, by membership, the smaller party compared to the NDP.
00:07:28.320You'll even see in this 30 to 44 age demographic, they're pretty much split with the NDP between 45 and 59 and 30 and 44.
00:07:37.580The NDP and the Liberals are tied when you combine their two numbers.
00:07:40.480If anything, yeah, actually, they literally are.
00:07:43.120If you had the 18 NDP and the 21 NDP and then the 19 Liberal and the 20 Liberal, that is a tie between the two parties there.
00:07:51.500So, yeah, this could become like a big knife fight between those two parties on who's really going to survive this next election in the long run.
00:07:59.840I want to go find Justin Trudeau's personal approval rating.
00:08:02.260Oh, but before that, I want to look at these numbers.
00:08:27.920The NDP was kind of in the middle because they got a lot of younger men, but then they got a lot of older women.
00:08:32.640So this poll is horrifying for the Liberals because, again, it demonstrates that they have no edge in any demographic group whatsoever, that they're just kind of equally hated by everyone.
00:08:43.640And every advantage that they used to have has pretty much melted away.
00:08:48.060Now, I want to jump into Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's personal approval ratings, impression of Justin Trudeau ratings here.
00:08:56.560Technically, I think his approval ratings have slightly improved over time, which is kind of funny that inversely the Liberal Party is actually becoming less popular.
00:09:05.740But the Liberal Party, his disapproval rating is at its highest point it's ever been at, 59% disapproval, with only 26% of Canadians saying they do approve of him, which is not very good if you're a man looking to get reelected in this country.
00:09:22.040And when we go to pure Polyev, he's always had a bit of a harder time trying to be popular.
00:09:26.960And it's just the problem that all Conservative politicians have.
00:09:33.020So naturally, people hear bad things about you all day long.
00:09:36.700And yet, pure Polyev is still at least able to hold a 2% approval rating, a 2% net approval rating, 39% of people like him, 37% dislike him.
00:09:47.440And you would still be shocked at how many people at this point don't know who pure Polyev is.
00:09:52.480Canadian politics, this is a weird point for me to make.
00:10:20.180And even this money is nothing compared to what, like, an Illinois Republican candidate for governor would have.
00:10:27.700A candidate who's not even going to win has equal money to, like, the Conservative Party in Canada.
00:10:33.880And so it makes it very difficult to get people to know who you are when you really can't spend that much money on introducing yourself to people.
00:10:41.580And so the Prime Minister of the country, because he's the Prime Minister, obviously will eventually have 100% name recognition.
00:10:49.260And even if you're a very popular opposition leader, up to Election Day, you'll be fighting hard to get the last, like, 15% to 20% of Canadians to even recognize your name.
00:10:59.660And so that's a big uphill battle that any party has, especially when you're a Conservative, when people do hear things about you.
00:11:06.420It's like talking heads like Andrew Coyne and Chantel Hubert saying that you're a disgusting boor and people shouldn't vote for you.
00:11:13.760But I want to move on a little bit more here.
00:11:16.680Jagmeet Singh, obviously his polling is down heavily.
00:11:50.680But to the average voter, they see the NDP as harmless.
00:11:53.700So they'll just say, well, yeah, Jagmeet seems like a nice guy.
00:11:57.260They said the same thing for Thomas Mulcair, Jack Layton.
00:12:00.400Every single NDP leader has had good approval ratings usually because nobody thinks they're going to be prime minister.
00:12:07.060And when nobody thinks they're going to be prime minister, why not give them a compliment?
00:12:10.740And so they kind of have the inverse problem of the conservatives.
00:12:13.660People vote conservative, but they tend to have negative impressions because of all the bad media coverage and because of the scare over the fact that the conservatives could form government.
00:12:23.040And so all the negative campaigning tends to rub off on them better because it feels like a real and present threat, even though obviously the conservatives are almost always going to do a better job in government than the liberals.
00:13:00.180And here are some of the issue polling right here.
00:13:02.500The only polling that the liberals do better than the conservatives consistently on right now by a wide margin is climate change and the environment.
00:13:10.800And I've got to tell you, I'll kind of zoom in on that on the bottom there.
00:13:13.120The liberals have 30%, but even they're tied with the greens, and that should show you why climate change does not matter as an issue in Canada in terms of politics.
00:13:22.460Nobody wants to vote for the greens, but they'll still say, I guess the greens would do well on climate change and the environment, but no one's going to let them ever form government.
00:13:31.200It's an issue that only, like, let's be real, 3% of Canadians make one of their top two issues.
00:13:38.400I'm voting for, you know, higher minimum wages and the environment, and usually it's a very socialistic type person who votes based on climate change.
00:13:47.200So you're chasing a voter if you're a conservative and you start trying to dive into climate issues.
00:13:51.260You're chasing a voter who doesn't like you on any other issue, and it's only about 3% of voters who are actually going to make that their primary issue.
00:13:58.240The conservatives are, the liberals are technically ahead, sorry, the liberals are technically ahead on indigenous reconciliation, but even the NDP is beating them and the conservatives, also not a big problem.
00:14:09.280Inequality and poverty, this is a funny one.
00:14:12.000This is what the liberals are trying to make their main election issue right now.
00:14:15.560Inequality and poverty, that's why they're pursuing the big increases to capital gains inclusion rates.
00:14:20.720But the NDP still beats them, and the conservatives are still ahead of them.
00:14:26.120So they're pushing a rope on a policy issue nobody thinks that they are doing a good job on, and not many people care about it.
00:14:33.300How much do you actually think about inequality on a day-to-day basis?
00:14:37.720I know my audience is very conservative, but I don't really think of people as being, like, their wealth relative to my own.
00:14:47.700At the same time, I'm not, like, resentful of other people having jobs, especially because their wealth generation will rub off on me because it creates more jobs, more money in the economy, and all that stuff.
00:14:59.100But nobody is, like, voting for, like, based on income inequality.
00:15:03.780People vote based on whether or not they are doing well financially or not.
00:15:08.400That's actually why the liberals, the one demographic group they still do decently well with are those who self-describe themselves as very well-off economically.
00:15:17.880Because when you're very well-off, you don't really have that much to complain about.
00:15:21.080And so the liberals, by doing this whole, the conservatives are big, like, you know, wealthy defenders or whatever, and they're trying to defend the wealthy, and they're, like, you know, attacking generational fairness.
00:15:32.900It's a bad move because that was a group of people who still liked the liberals, and the NDP are always going to have the edge on the political left for going after the wealthy because they were a full-on socialist party.
00:15:46.860And so now we have, like, and then when you start getting up to cost of rising living and health care, health care is kind of divided because, frankly, health care is a complete boondoggle of an issue.
00:15:55.760Every party, let's be very fair, has not done a good job on public health care, federally or provincially, because public health care just really doesn't work all that well.
00:16:05.980So everyone is trying to make the bad system work a little bit better, and usually whatever they do makes the system more bloated with more rules, regulations, and lower payouts for nurses and doctors.
00:16:16.560And so everything eventually tumbles downwards.
00:16:18.540But when you actually go into issues that people care about, like the economy and election interference and immigration and crime and public safety, the conservatives are leading all the other parties by, like, when I say triple digits, I mean, like, by, like, 30%, 40%.
00:16:35.920The liberals just don't have any credibility with voters.
00:16:38.740They were improving a little bit in the polls, and I don't think that was a fake improvement.
00:16:42.360When you look at the polling numbers, all of the pollsters were showing them improving.
00:16:46.120And while people want to say, well, Nanos is very liberal-leaning, that's the only reason they showed them only 12% behind the conservatives, I think that poll was probably about accurate a week ago, because obviously they polled that a week ago, and then they released the numbers this week.
00:17:03.860The problem is, like, you can kind of climb back up in the polls a little bit through negative campaigning, through attacks, through budgetary promises.
00:17:11.200But the problem is, when we're this far away from the next election, all those budgetary promises are going to flop by the time the next election rolls around, and all the negative campaigning can always be thrown back at you, just like we've seen in the last week and a half with all the scandals the liberals have been generating.
00:17:27.980Eventually, Canadians find out about those, and it makes your own negative attacks on Polyev and the conservatives seem really hollow.
00:17:35.340At this point, though, the conservatives can still fumble everything, even if they are 20 points ahead.
00:17:42.340And this is where I will share a bit of a personal story, because as many of you might know, I was in the federal conservative party nomination race for my riding of Calgary Signal Hill, and both myself and Lila A. here, the former deputy premier, we were both disqualified from the race for no reason.
00:17:59.520I have heard the leaked reasons behind the scenes, and they are complete garbage.
00:18:04.040Some insiders are trying to prop up the candidate Jeremy Nix in this area, who's, I can't apply any other word than basically a crook.
00:18:18.600He lives like 30 minutes away driving time.
00:18:21.080Yet there are insiders in the conservative party trying to prop up bad candidates because they are considered compliant.
00:18:27.380They will vote for whatever the conservative party wants to do, and they will never raise their voice on any other issue.
00:18:33.260The problem with this is that certain people behind the scenes who have lost elections for the conservatives before doing the same tactic think that they are so far in the head in the polls, they can just pick and choose candidates in the nominations and will never come back to bite them.
00:18:46.260This is not what will sink the conservatives, but it's something that could damage them.
00:18:49.540If every nomination around the country starts becoming very sketchy, like Patrick Brown was running the party, eventually a lot of people will stay home.
00:18:57.380And if that hurts the conservatives by three or four points, if the liberals can mine out for themselves three or four points through budgetary promises, through a tax, they can bring down the conservatives another two points, and they start to become within 10%, then this becomes a much more interesting election that we shouldn't be experiencing.
00:19:15.620So rigging nominations, picking and choosing crappy red Tory candidates, eventually could give the PPC a few points.
00:19:23.520I don't think people should vote for the PPC.
00:19:25.340It's kind of a dead party at this point that really stands for nothing more than giving Maxime Bernier a salary every year.
00:19:31.920But if any of the polling goes towards them, and this starts to get tighter, and the conservative party starts circling the wagons too much and trying to risk manage themselves through the next election, that's how you lose.
00:19:45.920Aaron O'Toole, every single decision he made in the 21 election was motivated by risk management.
00:19:52.620And risk management does not actually win an election.
00:19:55.400It just simply keeps, it just simply is like defending your territory.
00:19:59.660If all you're doing is defending, the best you can do in a day is not lose any territory.
00:20:04.500But that means that the worst you can do is lose everything that you have.
00:20:08.580You always need to be on the offensive.
00:20:10.360You can't be scared of being called controversial.
00:20:13.460Controversy and polarization is often good in politics because people vote along the lines of controversial issues.
00:20:19.300And if you don't take controversial stances, you seek to gain nothing.
00:20:23.580And when you bet for nothing, you can't win anything.
00:20:26.500So you've got to risk something in order to actually reward, to get any reward.
00:20:31.720And if too many people in the background of the party start to become queasy about controversy, what they're going to do is gut all of the benefits that pure poly have brought to the party by being controversial, by being polarizing, by being outspoken.
00:20:44.620And if you're going to disqualify me because I'm outspoken, well, if you start doing that in a lot of other ridings, you're going to start having a lot of people say, why should I come show up and vote when the guy who's representing us in this area isn't really even a conservative and he wasn't the guy we wanted.
00:20:59.180He effectively had the entire nomination race engineered so he would win.
00:21:04.660If you're going to want to do major reforms on the federal government level and you're not willing to reform the way your own party works, that concerns me a little bit.
00:21:14.600But anyways, that should be it for me today, guys.
00:21:17.160If you want to sign up on my website, I'm, of course, no longer in that nomination race.
00:21:21.240But regardless of where you live in Canada, you can go check out my website, WyattClaypool.com and sign up on the list for my organizing I'm going to do.
00:21:29.660I'm going to try and be able to recommend good nomination candidates across the country, good political provincial candidates, good municipal political candidates.
00:21:39.420And so if you sign up there, I can get people's addresses and then I can email you based on who I think is really good in your area.
00:21:45.640And then you can also, if you want, donate to the legal fund linked in the description below.
00:21:53.080I'm being sued by a Chinese billionaire still.
00:21:55.560So if you want to give any money to that, it really helps me fight back and be able to pay for all these costs so that we don't have to capitulate and apologize to a man that we did nothing wrong to.
00:22:05.040He is simply trying to bully us in order to keep people from talking about him.
00:22:09.460Anyways, that should be it for me today, guys.
00:22:12.020This started off as a video I thought was only going to be nine minutes.
00:22:14.580It became a little bit longer, but I hope you guys don't mind a bit of some longer content.