The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Justin Trudeau's Liberals face plant in new poll!

00:00:00.240 These days, it seems like whenever Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party start slightly improving in the polls,

00:00:07.300 eventually all the good news will come to an end, and they will fall off yet another polling cliff

00:00:12.680 and land face-first into some of the worst numbers they've ever experienced.

00:00:17.440 In the last three weeks, the Liberals were actually improving in the polls.

00:00:21.560 Like, they don't deserve it, but they were improving.

00:00:24.600 They were announcing a lot of new spending programs, they were attacking the Conservatives,

00:00:28.760 and that was slightly elevating them in the polling.

00:00:31.840 Because two months ago, the Liberals were lucky to only be behind the Conservatives by 18 or 19 points.

00:00:38.380 Many pollsters were consistently showing them behind 20 points,

00:00:41.880 some of them even showing them behind by as much as 21 points.

00:00:45.680 It was an extinction-level event in the polling.

00:00:49.580 But in the last three weeks, the Liberals had battled it back to where most pollsters were showing them only behind 16 points,

00:00:56.080 and even three days ago, Nanos' research showed them only behind 12 points.

00:01:01.800 And Nanos had previously even been a pollster, as much as they are a bit more liberal-leaning.

00:01:06.600 Two months ago, they were reflecting what other pollsters were saying, saying they were behind 19 points.

00:01:11.300 But now, the Liberals have fallen off the polling cliff.

00:01:14.500 A new Abacus data poll now shows them, yet again, behind the Conservatives by 20 points.

00:01:21.720 Here's the top-line numbers from this Abacus research poll, or Abacus data.

00:01:25.780 The Conservatives are at 42%, the Liberal Party is at 22%, NDP 19, Block 8, Green Party 5, and the PPC at 3%.

00:01:35.700 This is a massive contraction for the Liberals, and you'll notice from the last Abacus poll at the bottom there,

00:01:42.580 where they were showing the Conservatives only ahead by 16, that the Conservatives have only gained 1% in this new poll.

00:01:50.540 The problem for the Liberals is that their own base is full of soft support.

00:01:55.940 People will maybe think of voting Liberal if there's a lot of bad news going on for the Conservatives,

00:02:01.340 if there's a lot of negative campaigning going after them.

00:02:03.560 But it's not like they're really hurting the Conservative numbers.

00:02:06.940 They're more so getting a lot of apathetic Liberals who were probably previously saying,

00:02:11.320 I'm not even going to vote, to maybe say that they'll come back and vote Liberal again,

00:02:15.460 or they won't vote NDP and they'll shift towards the Liberals in the GTA.

00:02:19.400 The problem is, every time things start getting good for the Liberals,

00:02:23.360 they cause three more scandals, and all of their soft supporters say,

00:02:27.240 ugh, I'm not going to show up anymore.

00:02:29.560 And this last 10 days has not had a shortage of scandals.

00:02:33.360 We have the Foreign Interference scandal that implicates several unnamed Liberal MPs or Senators.

00:02:39.200 We have the Randy Boissoneau scandal, this very confusing one,

00:02:43.840 where Randy, it's the one that involves the other Randy thing,

00:02:46.940 where Randy was helping run a fake healthcare company that was getting government grants,

00:02:52.480 or that was collecting money from foreign investors.

00:02:55.260 And he was doing this while he was an MP and minister, basically texting his other partners

00:03:00.180 on accepting money orders for different services they were doing.

00:03:04.400 It's a complete mess.

00:03:05.920 And then you also have more news coming out about the Green Slush Fund,

00:03:09.760 $700 million going to Volkswagen's Power Core Group or Power Company Group in Canada.

00:03:17.520 It's a very generically named company.

00:03:19.020 And they were getting the money with no guarantees they were even going to lower emissions.

00:03:23.040 Like, I'm not someone who really cares about if emissions get lower or not,

00:03:27.200 because I'd rather human prosperity just get higher.

00:03:29.720 But when you're giving a company who doesn't even have its base in Canada $700 million,

00:03:35.680 you'd expect they'll do something.

00:03:37.360 And there's a lot of other companies that got money who were foreign-owned,

00:03:41.200 who are not actually doing anything in order to earn their green dollars here.

00:03:45.780 But let's go through some of this Abacus data poll, just point for point.

00:03:51.020 You'll notice here that the Conservatives were, or the Liberals were actually improving.

00:03:55.640 They were back, you know, a couple, a year ago at 27.

00:04:00.220 And then they started falling in Abacus's data, but it was pretty consistent.

00:04:03.480 I find Abacus a pretty good pollster.

00:04:05.740 And then they were improving.

00:04:07.320 Look at this last few months.

00:04:08.780 They were at 23, 23, 24, 25.

00:04:12.000 The Conservatives were at 44, starting to come down a little bit.

00:04:14.780 And then they fall off the cliff.

00:04:16.720 And I think that it 100% lines up with this new series of scandals.

00:04:21.060 And what people need to realize is that the Liberals could win the next election.

00:04:25.600 In these videos, I say, based on the current polling, there's no chance, which does hold up.

00:04:30.140 Yes, right now the Liberals could not win.

00:04:32.620 But always, always rely on the fact that there are some people inside the Conservative Party

00:04:38.220 who like doing nothing more than fumbling a victory, trying to risk manage everything to death.

00:04:43.980 This is what happens to every Conservative Party.

00:04:46.320 And you need members and you need MPs and you need other insiders.

00:04:50.220 They're pushing for the party to stick to principles.

00:04:53.380 Don't worry about being called controversial.

00:04:56.160 Just focus on actually fixing issues and going after the Liberals hard.

00:05:00.180 Don't start kicking people off the ship purely because of risk,

00:05:03.620 or you end up actually alienating large parts of your base.

00:05:07.560 This is what exactly happened with Aaron O'Toole.

00:05:10.300 I want to bring up some other data from here.

00:05:11.940 But here are the regional numbers.

00:05:13.640 This is absolutely terrifying for the Liberals.

00:05:16.420 The Conservatives, and this is also why the BC Conservatives could totally win the provincial election.

00:05:22.240 The Conservatives are at 44% in BC.

00:05:25.280 You go to Ontario, they're at 44% in Ontario.

00:05:28.300 They're in Quebec, they're at 22%.

00:05:30.360 The Liberals are only leading them by 2%.

00:05:32.660 And the bloc is still ahead overall in Quebec by a large margin.

00:05:37.040 Atlanta, Canada, 44%.

00:05:39.160 The magic number these days for the Conservative Party is 44%.

00:05:43.820 And that might as well be a majority of voters in these provinces considering it's a multi-party system where when you add just the PPC and Green Party numbers to it,

00:05:53.720 the Conservatives have the majority.

00:05:55.580 The NDP and Liberal numbers are less than the Conservatives if they're combined.

00:06:00.540 So the Conservatives could potentially sweep not just like many of the Southern Ontario ridings, Northern Ontario, like, you know, London, some Peel region ridings.

00:06:10.540 They could win Toronto ridings, like downtown Toronto ridings because of how split up the left is these days.

00:06:16.740 And it's not split up because of vote splitting going on.

00:06:20.200 It's more split up because neither party is doing a good job at anything and nobody wants to vote for the NDP or the Liberals.

00:06:27.120 Like, they might do it out of habit, but that's not exactly a great source of strength for the Liberals relying on habit helping them out here.

00:06:34.680 So here's some demography numbers.

00:06:37.740 Here are the Conservatives winning pretty every single demographic, 60 and over all the way down to 18 to 29.

00:06:44.520 And I always highlight this every time we start talking about age brackets.

00:06:48.820 The Liberals are actually a very old party.

00:06:50.860 You can see them disproportionately doing well with people who are 60 and over.

00:06:55.200 And the NDP does well with those who are 18 to 29.

00:06:58.200 This is a big problem for the Liberals because if they sort of dump in this next election and it takes them a few years to recover, the problem is the NDP has been taking all the lefty younger voters and the Liberal Party becomes the party for pensioners who that doesn't like, you know, the program doesn't really appeal to those in younger age groups.

00:07:18.440 So the Liberals have a big demographic problem that in the next 15 years, they could be, by membership, the smaller party compared to the NDP.

00:07:28.320 You'll even see in this 30 to 44 age demographic, they're pretty much split with the NDP between 45 and 59 and 30 and 44.

00:07:37.580 The NDP and the Liberals are tied when you combine their two numbers.

00:07:40.480 If anything, yeah, actually, they literally are.

00:07:43.120 If you had the 18 NDP and the 21 NDP and then the 19 Liberal and the 20 Liberal, that is a tie between the two parties there.

00:07:51.500 So, yeah, this could become like a big knife fight between those two parties on who's really going to survive this next election in the long run.

00:07:59.840 I want to go find Justin Trudeau's personal approval rating.

00:08:02.260 Oh, but before that, I want to look at these numbers.

00:08:05.240 This is interesting.

00:08:06.360 So the Liberals do equally well with men and women.

00:08:08.860 That is terrifying for the Liberals because the Liberals have always been disproportionately a female party. 0.84

00:08:16.040 Every party tends to have a demographic they do better with.

00:08:19.180 Obviously, you're not going to be equal with men and women across every poll.

00:08:23.020 But the Conservatives have always consistently done better with men.

00:08:26.240 The Liberals did better with women.

00:08:27.920 The NDP was kind of in the middle because they got a lot of younger men, but then they got a lot of older women.

00:08:32.640 So this poll is horrifying for the Liberals because, again, it demonstrates that they have no edge in any demographic group whatsoever, that they're just kind of equally hated by everyone.

00:08:43.640 And every advantage that they used to have has pretty much melted away.

00:08:48.060 Now, I want to jump into Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's personal approval ratings, impression of Justin Trudeau ratings here.

00:08:56.560 Technically, I think his approval ratings have slightly improved over time, which is kind of funny that inversely the Liberal Party is actually becoming less popular.

00:09:05.740 But the Liberal Party, his disapproval rating is at its highest point it's ever been at, 59% disapproval, with only 26% of Canadians saying they do approve of him, which is not very good if you're a man looking to get reelected in this country.

00:09:22.040 And when we go to pure Polyev, he's always had a bit of a harder time trying to be popular.

00:09:26.960 And it's just the problem that all Conservative politicians have.

00:09:30.360 The media is against you.

00:09:31.600 Active groups are against you.

00:09:33.020 So naturally, people hear bad things about you all day long.

00:09:36.700 And yet, pure Polyev is still at least able to hold a 2% approval rating, a 2% net approval rating, 39% of people like him, 37% dislike him.

00:09:47.440 And you would still be shocked at how many people at this point don't know who pure Polyev is. 0.85

00:09:52.480 Canadian politics, this is a weird point for me to make.

00:09:55.540 I need some coffee before I make it.

00:09:58.760 Dry mouth and the such.

00:09:59.940 But in Canadian politics, our big problem is kind of the reverse of the U.S.

00:10:05.180 The U.S., you could argue there's too much money in politics. 0.91

00:10:08.360 In Canada, there's way too little money in politics.

00:10:11.500 Pierre Polyev is like the first politician in Canada to have as much money on hand as he does.

00:10:16.500 Even John Chrétien has never had the money on hand that Polyev does now.

00:10:20.180 And even this money is nothing compared to what, like, an Illinois Republican candidate for governor would have.

00:10:27.700 A candidate who's not even going to win has equal money to, like, the Conservative Party in Canada.

00:10:33.880 And so it makes it very difficult to get people to know who you are when you really can't spend that much money on introducing yourself to people.

00:10:41.580 And so the Prime Minister of the country, because he's the Prime Minister, obviously will eventually have 100% name recognition.

00:10:49.260 And even if you're a very popular opposition leader, up to Election Day, you'll be fighting hard to get the last, like, 15% to 20% of Canadians to even recognize your name.

00:10:59.660 And so that's a big uphill battle that any party has, especially when you're a Conservative, when people do hear things about you. 0.95

00:11:06.420 It's like talking heads like Andrew Coyne and Chantel Hubert saying that you're a disgusting boor and people shouldn't vote for you. 0.91

00:11:13.760 But I want to move on a little bit more here. 0.96

00:11:16.680 Jagmeet Singh, obviously his polling is down heavily.

00:11:20.140 He used to be a popular guy.

00:11:21.480 Like, look back here.

00:11:22.680 He used to have, like, a 42% approval rating compared to a 26% disapproval rating.

00:11:27.720 And now he's 35% disapproval, 33% approval.

00:11:32.360 And it's because he's tied himself so closely to the Liberal Party that nobody trusts him anymore from even his own side.

00:11:39.680 He's just considered an adjunct part of the Liberal Party.

00:11:43.740 So every positive he used to have as an NDP leader who seems above the fray.

00:11:48.620 The NDP's never been above the fray.

00:11:50.680 But to the average voter, they see the NDP as harmless.

00:11:53.700 So they'll just say, well, yeah, Jagmeet seems like a nice guy.

00:11:57.260 They said the same thing for Thomas Mulcair, Jack Layton.

00:12:00.400 Every single NDP leader has had good approval ratings usually because nobody thinks they're going to be prime minister.

00:12:07.060 And when nobody thinks they're going to be prime minister, why not give them a compliment?

00:12:10.740 And so they kind of have the inverse problem of the conservatives.

00:12:13.660 People vote conservative, but they tend to have negative impressions because of all the bad media coverage and because of the scare over the fact that the conservatives could form government.

00:12:23.040 And so all the negative campaigning tends to rub off on them better because it feels like a real and present threat, even though obviously the conservatives are almost always going to do a better job in government than the liberals.

00:12:34.480 You know, I would say that Chrétien was a better prime minister than Brian Mulroney because Chrétien, in a certain sense, was kind of like a Kline, like a Ralph Kline liberal.

00:12:43.780 He actually did more cutting of federal spending than even Ralph Kline did provincially in Alberta.

00:12:49.060 Obviously, the federal budget was more bloated, but you've got to give credit where credit is due, although these days even Chrétien is still a political hack backing the liberals because that's what you need to do.

00:13:00.180 And here are some of the issue polling right here.

00:13:02.500 The only polling that the liberals do better than the conservatives consistently on right now by a wide margin is climate change and the environment.

00:13:10.800 And I've got to tell you, I'll kind of zoom in on that on the bottom there.

00:13:13.120 The liberals have 30%, but even they're tied with the greens, and that should show you why climate change does not matter as an issue in Canada in terms of politics.

00:13:22.460 Nobody wants to vote for the greens, but they'll still say, I guess the greens would do well on climate change and the environment, but no one's going to let them ever form government.

00:13:31.200 It's an issue that only, like, let's be real, 3% of Canadians make one of their top two issues.

00:13:38.400 I'm voting for, you know, higher minimum wages and the environment, and usually it's a very socialistic type person who votes based on climate change.

00:13:47.200 So you're chasing a voter if you're a conservative and you start trying to dive into climate issues.

00:13:51.260 You're chasing a voter who doesn't like you on any other issue, and it's only about 3% of voters who are actually going to make that their primary issue.

00:13:58.240 The conservatives are, the liberals are technically ahead, sorry, the liberals are technically ahead on indigenous reconciliation, but even the NDP is beating them and the conservatives, also not a big problem.

00:14:09.280 Inequality and poverty, this is a funny one.

00:14:12.000 This is what the liberals are trying to make their main election issue right now.

00:14:15.560 Inequality and poverty, that's why they're pursuing the big increases to capital gains inclusion rates.

00:14:20.720 But the NDP still beats them, and the conservatives are still ahead of them.

00:14:26.120 So they're pushing a rope on a policy issue nobody thinks that they are doing a good job on, and not many people care about it.

00:14:33.300 How much do you actually think about inequality on a day-to-day basis?

00:14:37.720 I know my audience is very conservative, but I don't really think of people as being, like, their wealth relative to my own.

00:14:45.300 I'm not a very wealthy guy.

00:14:47.700 At the same time, I'm not, like, resentful of other people having jobs, especially because their wealth generation will rub off on me because it creates more jobs, more money in the economy, and all that stuff.

00:14:59.100 But nobody is, like, voting for, like, based on income inequality.

00:15:03.780 People vote based on whether or not they are doing well financially or not.

00:15:08.400 That's actually why the liberals, the one demographic group they still do decently well with are those who self-describe themselves as very well-off economically.

00:15:17.880 Because when you're very well-off, you don't really have that much to complain about.

00:15:21.080 And so the liberals, by doing this whole, the conservatives are big, like, you know, wealthy defenders or whatever, and they're trying to defend the wealthy, and they're, like, you know, attacking generational fairness.

00:15:32.900 It's a bad move because that was a group of people who still liked the liberals, and the NDP are always going to have the edge on the political left for going after the wealthy because they were a full-on socialist party.

00:15:46.860 And so now we have, like, and then when you start getting up to cost of rising living and health care, health care is kind of divided because, frankly, health care is a complete boondoggle of an issue.

00:15:55.760 Every party, let's be very fair, has not done a good job on public health care, federally or provincially, because public health care just really doesn't work all that well.

00:16:05.980 So everyone is trying to make the bad system work a little bit better, and usually whatever they do makes the system more bloated with more rules, regulations, and lower payouts for nurses and doctors.

00:16:16.560 And so everything eventually tumbles downwards.

00:16:18.540 But when you actually go into issues that people care about, like the economy and election interference and immigration and crime and public safety, the conservatives are leading all the other parties by, like, when I say triple digits, I mean, like, by, like, 30%, 40%.

00:16:33.760 It's nuts out there.

00:16:35.920 The liberals just don't have any credibility with voters.

00:16:38.740 They were improving a little bit in the polls, and I don't think that was a fake improvement.

00:16:42.360 When you look at the polling numbers, all of the pollsters were showing them improving.

00:16:46.120 And while people want to say, well, Nanos is very liberal-leaning, that's the only reason they showed them only 12% behind the conservatives, I think that poll was probably about accurate a week ago, because obviously they polled that a week ago, and then they released the numbers this week.

00:17:03.860 The problem is, like, you can kind of climb back up in the polls a little bit through negative campaigning, through attacks, through budgetary promises.

00:17:11.200 But the problem is, when we're this far away from the next election, all those budgetary promises are going to flop by the time the next election rolls around, and all the negative campaigning can always be thrown back at you, just like we've seen in the last week and a half with all the scandals the liberals have been generating.

00:17:27.980 Eventually, Canadians find out about those, and it makes your own negative attacks on Polyev and the conservatives seem really hollow.

00:17:35.340 At this point, though, the conservatives can still fumble everything, even if they are 20 points ahead.

00:17:42.340 And this is where I will share a bit of a personal story, because as many of you might know, I was in the federal conservative party nomination race for my riding of Calgary Signal Hill, and both myself and Lila A. here, the former deputy premier, we were both disqualified from the race for no reason. 0.92

00:17:59.520 I have heard the leaked reasons behind the scenes, and they are complete garbage. 0.91

00:18:04.040 Some insiders are trying to prop up the candidate Jeremy Nix in this area, who's, I can't apply any other word than basically a crook. 0.98

00:18:11.960 He is not very conservative at all.

00:18:13.900 He was a terrible MLA and terrible minister in Alberta.

00:18:17.320 He doesn't even live in the riding.

00:18:18.600 He lives like 30 minutes away driving time.

00:18:21.080 Yet there are insiders in the conservative party trying to prop up bad candidates because they are considered compliant.

00:18:27.380 They will vote for whatever the conservative party wants to do, and they will never raise their voice on any other issue.

00:18:33.260 The problem with this is that certain people behind the scenes who have lost elections for the conservatives before doing the same tactic think that they are so far in the head in the polls, they can just pick and choose candidates in the nominations and will never come back to bite them.

00:18:46.260 This is not what will sink the conservatives, but it's something that could damage them.

00:18:49.540 If every nomination around the country starts becoming very sketchy, like Patrick Brown was running the party, eventually a lot of people will stay home.

00:18:57.380 And if that hurts the conservatives by three or four points, if the liberals can mine out for themselves three or four points through budgetary promises, through a tax, they can bring down the conservatives another two points, and they start to become within 10%, then this becomes a much more interesting election that we shouldn't be experiencing.

00:19:15.620 So rigging nominations, picking and choosing crappy red Tory candidates, eventually could give the PPC a few points.

00:19:23.520 I don't think people should vote for the PPC.

00:19:25.340 It's kind of a dead party at this point that really stands for nothing more than giving Maxime Bernier a salary every year.

00:19:31.920 But if any of the polling goes towards them, and this starts to get tighter, and the conservative party starts circling the wagons too much and trying to risk manage themselves through the next election, that's how you lose.

00:19:45.920 Aaron O'Toole, every single decision he made in the 21 election was motivated by risk management.

00:19:52.620 And risk management does not actually win an election.

00:19:55.400 It just simply keeps, it just simply is like defending your territory.

00:19:59.660 If all you're doing is defending, the best you can do in a day is not lose any territory.

00:20:04.500 But that means that the worst you can do is lose everything that you have.

00:20:08.580 You always need to be on the offensive.

00:20:10.360 You can't be scared of being called controversial.

00:20:13.460 Controversy and polarization is often good in politics because people vote along the lines of controversial issues.

00:20:19.300 And if you don't take controversial stances, you seek to gain nothing.

00:20:23.580 And when you bet for nothing, you can't win anything.

00:20:26.500 So you've got to risk something in order to actually reward, to get any reward.

00:20:31.720 And if too many people in the background of the party start to become queasy about controversy, what they're going to do is gut all of the benefits that pure poly have brought to the party by being controversial, by being polarizing, by being outspoken.

00:20:44.620 And if you're going to disqualify me because I'm outspoken, well, if you start doing that in a lot of other ridings, you're going to start having a lot of people say, why should I come show up and vote when the guy who's representing us in this area isn't really even a conservative and he wasn't the guy we wanted.

00:20:59.180 He effectively had the entire nomination race engineered so he would win.

00:21:03.820 That's a big problem.

00:21:04.660 If you're going to want to do major reforms on the federal government level and you're not willing to reform the way your own party works, that concerns me a little bit.

00:21:14.600 But anyways, that should be it for me today, guys.

00:21:17.160 If you want to sign up on my website, I'm, of course, no longer in that nomination race.

00:21:21.240 But regardless of where you live in Canada, you can go check out my website, WyattClaypool.com and sign up on the list for my organizing I'm going to do.

00:21:29.660 I'm going to try and be able to recommend good nomination candidates across the country, good political provincial candidates, good municipal political candidates.

00:21:39.420 And so if you sign up there, I can get people's addresses and then I can email you based on who I think is really good in your area.

00:21:45.640 And then you can also, if you want, donate to the legal fund linked in the description below.

00:21:50.860 It's the Give, Send, Go link.

00:21:53.080 I'm being sued by a Chinese billionaire still.

00:21:55.560 So if you want to give any money to that, it really helps me fight back and be able to pay for all these costs so that we don't have to capitulate and apologize to a man that we did nothing wrong to.

00:22:05.040 He is simply trying to bully us in order to keep people from talking about him.

00:22:09.460 Anyways, that should be it for me today, guys.

00:22:12.020 This started off as a video I thought was only going to be nine minutes.

00:22:14.580 It became a little bit longer, but I hope you guys don't mind a bit of some longer content.

00:22:19.680 Anyways, have a good one.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - June 17, 2024

Justin Trudeau's Liberals face plant in new poll!

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