The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - November 01, 2023


Justin Trudeau's Liberals Look Broke Ahead of 2025 Election

Topics
spooky fundraising numbers money in politics donations drying up
Hosted by
Wyatt Claypool
Mentioned
Justin Trudeau Andrew Scheer Pierre Poilievre Erin O'Toole Jagmeet Singh Mark Carney Eric Garner Karen McDougal Pierre Pauly
Did Trudeau Kill His Own Carbon Tax？ Jagmeet Singh Is A Political Weasel

Episode Stats


Length

11 minutes

Words per minute

195.54

Word count

2,297

Sentence count

128

Harmful content

Misogyny

1

sentences flagged

Toxicity

4

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada are in serious trouble, and it's all because of a lack of money. The Tories are crushing the Liberals in fundraising, and are on track to defeat them in the next federal election.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Topics generated with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct.
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 Now, I'm not much of a Halloween guy. I just don't really care much about the season. I obviously don't put up orange on this set or have any Halloween decorations. It's just not something I've really ever cared about, not for any philosophical reasons. I just don't care about the holiday much.
00:00:14.740 But if there's one spooky thing I can get behind this Halloween, it is the absolutely scary fundraising numbers for the Liberal Party of Canada. I have no doubt that Justin Trudeau is currently sitting at home today, terrified about the abysmal fundraising numbers for them.
00:00:31.620 The polling numbers were already bad for the Liberals. They're anywhere from 8 to 14 points behind the Conservative Party of Canada. That's an amazingly big margin for the Conservatives to be leading, considering that the Liberals are supposedly the natural governing party of Canada.
00:00:45.700 Right now, and it's been about four, I think it's actually almost like two and a half years of this, four, not two and a half years, sorry, about like a year and a half to two years for the Conservatives, where they're out fundraising the Liberals by more than double every single quarter.
00:01:01.020 The third quarter results just came in, and the Conservatives raised $7 million, and the Liberals only raised $3 million. And what's really scary, and I just want to use the term spooky because I think it's funny, what's very spooky for the Liberals,
00:01:15.300 is that they're closer to the NDP's fundraising than they are to the Conservative Party's fundraising. The NDP has more than half of what the Liberals fundraised, but the Liberals don't even have, aren't even close to having half of what the Conservatives have.
00:01:30.780 That is insane, considering nobody believes Jagmeet Singh and the NDP are going to govern Canada anytime soon. The best they can hope for is a minority role within the Liberal government, in which they basically just rubber stamp everything for Justin Trudeau and promise to never ask for anything from them either.
00:01:48.680 It's a very pathetic party under Jagmeet Singh these days. But what's more pathetic? Jagmeet Singh never really having a chance of becoming Prime Minister yet, claiming that one day he'll be Prime Minister in Parliament? 0.98
00:02:00.060 Or is it Justin Trudeau and the Liberals looking increasingly as unhealthy as the NDP are, while the Conservatives just run away with the next federal election?
00:02:08.860 I'm loving it. I'm a Conservative. I want to see the Liberals go down to flaming defeat. But man, you got to put this into context. As bad as the polling is for the Liberals, what's even worse is that the Conservatives, every single year, can basically spend three to five million dollars just advertising themselves and running down Trudeau, because they have all this extra money on their hands.
00:02:28.080 And during a federal election writ period, the Conservative Party, just as any other party, can only spend like up to $150,000 in each federal riding. So the Conservatives are at the point where they actually can't really spend in most ridings. They'll have way more money than the maximum for every single riding they're seriously going to contend for.
00:02:45.960 So they have nothing better to do but then offload money just running ads about how great Pierre Polyev is and how terrible Justin Trudeau is. This is what is going to kill off the Liberal Party.
00:02:57.520 The Conservative opposition leader, Pierre Polyev, his name recognition is skyrocketing these days because he has the budget to make sure his name recognition is going to go up. It's also because he's highly talented at using social media and the Liberals can't help but continue talking about Pierre Polyev, which is also helping his name recognition.
00:03:16.760 I've said this in multiple videos before, the biggest obstacle for an opposition leader becoming the Prime Minister is name recognition. In Canada, unlike a lot of other countries, people don't really care about the sort of nitty gritty of politics.
00:03:30.920 So people like Andrew Scheer and Aaron O'Toole come election time for them as Conservative Party leaders probably only ever achieved more than like didn't achieve more than 60 to 70% name recognition.
00:03:41.880 I guarantee most people who voted in that election would have had a hard time naming all the leaders of all the political parties in Canada. It's just the sort of thing that happens in Canada. The amount of that political parties can spend on politics in Canada or people can donate is far lower than in the U.S.
00:03:58.520 An Illinois Senate race or governor's race, even though it's obviously going to be a Democratic victory, probably has more spending in it than a Canadian federal election entirely.
00:04:09.720 And when there's not a lot of money in politics, it actually limits the amount people can care about politics because you spend your money on things you care about.
00:04:16.600 And when the Canadian system like I think there's too much money in American politics, but there's too little money in Canadian politics to the point where people can only throw usually half dollars around in order to actually promote themselves.
00:04:29.200 Just like Peter Polly and the Conservatives have broken through that issue by just being so popular, every single Conservative member or even supporter who's not a member is willing to throw at least $100 at them to make sure that they can get their message out there.
00:04:42.080 And that has been skyrocketing the Conservatives' message of smaller government and dumping Trudeau.
00:04:48.520 I want to show this other one. This one is even more terrifying for the Liberals this Halloween.
00:04:54.700 I just want to keep plugging that it's Halloween. Gotta pretend like I actually care about the holiday.
00:05:00.360 But the 2023 overall numbers. Look at this. So far in 2023, and follow Eric Grenier for posting all this stuff.
00:05:08.700 He's from the RIT and I really appreciate whenever people post numbers like this.
00:05:11.840 The Conservatives this year so far have fundraised $23.3 million.
00:05:19.000 The Liberals have only posted $9.8 million. That is death for the Liberal Party.
00:05:27.240 Again, and the NDP have raised a little bit less than half for the entire year than the Liberals.
00:05:32.100 But again, the Liberals are far closer to the NDP's numbers than they are to the Conservatives' numbers.
00:05:39.160 Usually the Conservatives, I said this when I did a fundraising video a few months ago.
00:05:44.460 The Conservatives usually have a little bit more money than the Liberals.
00:05:47.700 It's simply that the Conservatives are competitive in larger portions of the country.
00:05:51.440 So many people are willing to donate to them.
00:05:53.520 Whereas the Liberals have smaller areas that they have to win, like the GTA, Montreal area, Vancouver, and Atlantic Canada.
00:06:00.260 Those are their main vote banks.
00:06:01.980 So they obviously don't have to spend money everywhere.
00:06:04.620 So they don't need as much money to run successful campaigns.
00:06:07.580 Conservatives need way more money.
00:06:09.340 But ahead of the 2021 and 2019 elections, the Conservatives maybe had a million extra dollars than the Liberals in some of these quarters.
00:06:16.220 Maybe, you know, $500,000.
00:06:18.000 It wasn't millions and millions of more dollars than the Liberals.
00:06:21.500 They weren't doubling them.
00:06:22.580 They were ahead.
00:06:23.480 But it wasn't like a slaughter like is going on right now.
00:06:26.680 And it's simply because Liberal donors don't think Justin Trudeau is going to win.
00:06:31.040 So they're slowly pulling back and either fundraising for Conservatives to maybe, you know, not like win favors in a corrupt way.
00:06:37.920 But, you know, at least, you know, show that they don't, that they at least support the Conservatives.
00:06:42.360 So maybe they'll hear them out on a few policies.
00:06:44.420 But right now, what's happening to the Liberals is that their own base doesn't believe in them.
00:06:49.740 I could go back and maybe I still have this on here.
00:06:52.580 But like the Liberals are some of the like the Liberal Party supporters.
00:06:55.900 I don't think I have it.
00:06:56.620 I'm sorry.
00:06:56.960 But it's the Liberal Party supporters who, in an abacus data poll, are 41% saying that they don't want Justin Trudeau to run as Prime Minister this next election again.
00:07:07.180 Those are 2021 supporters of the Liberal Party, very recent voters of the Liberal Party.
00:07:11.820 A plurality of them don't want him running again.
00:07:14.340 It was like another 18% were unsure.
00:07:16.800 So it left a minority of Liberals wanting Trudeau to run again.
00:07:20.780 And the NDP, obviously, most of their supporters didn't want Trudeau to run for Prime Minister again.
00:07:24.740 And while that feels obvious that they don't want him to run, they're his coalition partner.
00:07:29.720 You think that they would have at least some warm feelings to him, but 60% of them wanted him to step down.
00:07:35.560 Sorry, I have slight hiccups here.
00:07:37.920 And I'm eight minutes into a video.
00:07:39.240 I'm not resetting this video.
00:07:40.320 I've re-recorded this enough.
00:07:42.340 But with the NDP and the Liberals, when you combined it, their coalition probably has about a 55%, 50% rate of people just wanting Trudeau to step down.
00:07:53.140 And I guarantee there's a lot of donors in the background of the Liberals who are explicitly telling them,
00:07:57.940 Unless you swap out Justin Trudeau with like a Mark Carney, or I don't know why you would want this, but like a Chrystia Freeland, we're just not going to back the party.
00:08:06.560 And there's rumors swirling about right now that certain Liberal MPs, like Ken McDonald, because he even literally voted to axe the carbon tax when they were put up for a vote,
00:08:17.340 people like that might even cross the floor to the Conservatives because they're worried about their ability to hold on to their jobs.
00:08:23.300 The Liberals are in free fall, and the fundraising numbers are showing the rot.
00:08:27.460 Every once in a while, I run into people and they're like,
00:08:29.120 No, the Liberals vote in GTA so efficient that they're still going to win anyways, or they're going to rig it, or they're going to do whatever.
00:08:35.980 The 2021 election exposing all the CCP interference probably kills off any ability for an outside group to deeply affect the election.
00:08:44.540 Nobody likes the media anymore, and even though the CBC, CTV, and Global News are effectively making in-kind contributions to Liberals
00:08:50.960 by giving them positive coverage when they never deserve it, even though that usually goes in their favor,
00:08:56.000 Too many people are sick of the media these days to really care about the media spin that,
00:09:01.140 Oh, the Conservative Party under pure poly of this conspiracy party, and Justin Trudeau is just trying to stand up for the environment and kids or whatever they're saying now.
00:09:10.080 Nobody cares about what they say anymore.
00:09:12.980 Nobody cares about the Liberal Party's marketing and branding about how there's deep, scary Conservatives out there,
00:09:19.700 and you need to go and support us, or they're going to push your grandmother down the stairs. 1.00
00:09:23.020 Just nonsense.
00:09:23.840 People don't believe in that the Liberals can win, and that's why the donations are drying up.
00:09:29.140 I hope I'm not repeating myself.
00:09:30.600 I'm just wanting to, you know, feel out every little corner of this issue.
00:09:34.200 There's just no way for the Liberals to come back at this point.
00:09:37.620 Yes, they came back in 2019.
00:09:39.460 Yes, they came back in 2021, supposedly.
00:09:42.120 They didn't really come back as much as the Conservatives' coalition was a little bit too weak and ramshackle that it broke down before Election Day,
00:09:50.840 whereas Andrew Scheer was a little too boring when it came to his messaging, and Aaron O'Toole abandoned his own base.
00:09:56.400 That's why the Conservatives lost.
00:09:57.760 Even with the CCP interference, it was mostly an internal Conservative issue as to why we lost.
00:10:04.060 It was because Aaron O'Toole was not very conservative, and Andrew Scheer was listening to too many focus groups and not being himself on the campaign trail.
00:10:11.440 Andrew Scheer is a great guy, but the problem is he listened to too many advisors in the back saying,
00:10:16.580 tone down your social views, just sort of stick to just issues that nobody can disagree with,
00:10:21.900 like giving people $50 tax credits if they enroll their kids in violin lessons and stuff like that.
00:10:26.800 It's not compelling.
00:10:27.760 You need to take hard stances on issues or you're going to lose.
00:10:30.180 That's what Pierre Paulyov is doing, and Justin Trudeau, even these days, Justin Trudeau's not taking hard stances anymore because he's terrified to take hard stances.
00:10:37.900 He's even retreating on the carbon tax because he no longer believes in any of his policies anymore because he knows they're not popular.
00:10:46.160 Anyways, that should be it for me today.
00:10:48.380 I have my normal legal fundraiser in the description of this video.
00:10:51.340 If you want to support me in a fight against a Chinese billionaire who is claiming libel against the National Telegraph and myself,
00:11:00.000 it's utter nonsense.
00:11:01.020 I feel like we're doing very well in the court case, so giving me $50, $25 really helps me out.
00:11:06.340 Also, you can follow me on Xer, my Twitter account, also linked in the description.
00:11:11.380 And if you live in the Calgary Signal Hill area, I'm running for the Conservative Party nomination for this riding.
00:11:17.080 So I'd love it.
00:11:17.880 If you live in this riding, you'd buy a membership and support me or encourage a friend who lives in the riding to support me if you want a solid, principled conservative representing this Calgary riding.
00:11:27.700 I don't want to turn this entire channel into just plugging my nomination campaign, so I'll probably tone it down unless people want me to talk about it. 0.97
00:11:36.720 But other than that, I hope everyone has a great Halloween, even though I think it's a stupid holiday. 0.99
00:11:41.600 So enjoy your stupid holiday, everyone, and have a great night. 1.00