Justin Trudeau's poll numbers continue to plummet, and it's only getting worse. The Liberals are losing ground to the Tories in the polls, and there's no reason to think it won't get worse. In this episode, I talk about why this is happening, and why it's not an accident.
00:00:00.000As it is often said, no matter how bad things currently are, things could always be worse.
00:00:06.520And when it comes to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, that's his entire life these days.
00:00:11.320Things get bad, and then they get worse, and then they think things can't get worse, and then they still get worse.
00:00:17.080And every once in a while, the Liberals polling and Justin Trudeau's approval ratings improve a little bit just to add to the disappointment when five minutes later, they slump yet again to some truly horrifying numbers.
00:00:30.380So about a week or two ago, we had that Nanos poll that came out that showed that the Liberals were only behind the Conservatives by 12 points, a really bad trail to have for the Liberals that would still be a majority government for the Conservatives by quite a large margin.
00:00:45.580But that wasn't nearly as bad as what the polls were showing two months ago.
00:00:50.060But now, after a lot of Liberal commentators came out and said, hey, maybe Justin Trudeau could catch a little momentum right now, things then dropped back down to being minus 20 points, minus 21 points.
00:01:02.420This new Angus Reid poll shows the Liberals behind the Conservatives by 21 points, but the cherry on top is that the NDP is within the margin of error, only one point behind the Liberals.
00:01:13.900That is truly an achievement for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, leading a party that was supposed to be the natural governing party of Canada.
00:01:22.480That's what everyone always says about the Liberals.
00:01:24.520They basically win elections on easy mode because they win a lot of ridings around the GTA area, the Peel region, Montreal, Vancouver.
00:01:32.380And then they just have to do a little bit of mop-up work in southern Ontario, the Maritimes, and just winning a couple seats here and there in Manitoba and Alberta, and they can form either a minority or a majority government.
00:01:43.940The Conservatives always need to be winning the popular vote by a much larger margin because they tend to get stuck in certain parts of the country where it's hard to translate their votes further east or further west into British Columbia.
00:01:55.460But these days, because Justin Trudeau is just truly that bad of a Prime Minister, his own people are running away from him in a similar fashion to UK voters running away from Rishi Sunak and the UK Tories.
00:02:09.220It's a government where they're in opposite situations right now.
00:02:13.160The UK Tories are so useless, nobody wants to vote for them, where the Liberals keep stepping on every rake in front of them.
00:02:18.600So now their own voters don't really want the embarrassment of having cast another ballot for them and are either going to stay home or vote Conservative.
00:02:26.040Even a lot of these polls aren't really showing the NDP benefiting that much from the Liberal falling.
00:02:31.820And so we also had that poll yesterday I showed that came out from Abacus Data that had the Conservatives up 20 points.
00:02:38.240And then we even have this one from Ipsos that shows the Conservatives up 18 points, which is an improvement since the last Ipsos poll that showed the Conservatives only ahead by 16.
00:02:47.640And I want to jump back to the Abacus Data poll because it's truly harrowing for the Liberals just how bad the long-term polling has been for them.
00:03:14.060This is a trend that has been occurring for more than a year now, that the Liberals have just been turning off their voters left and right, and people just don't really care to show up anymore.
00:03:24.140I guarantee you, the next election in 2025 is going to be hyper-low turnout.
00:03:28.800I could see just having 50% turnout because a lot of Liberals are just going to stay home.
00:03:35.340But now I want to get into some specific issue polling that I believe is going to show that, yes, even after I've just told you this news about the polling, things can get worse for the Liberals.
00:03:47.500And some of the polling on the issues the Liberals are really pushing right now are proving that they might be doing more harm to themselves than good.
00:03:55.040But before I get into that, I just quickly want to plug my website, wyattclaypool.com.
00:03:59.940If you guys want specific recommendations for nomination races in your area, that's provincial nominations, federal nominations, or even just municipal races going on, go sign up there.
00:04:10.400I take in people's addresses so that I can target specific people on the list and let you know if there's any really good Orthodox Conservatives in your area.
00:04:18.400I think we need more organizing work from within the Conservative Party to make sure that we don't end up having red Tories sneaking in to strong Conservative ridings
00:04:26.520and pumping the brakes on the reforms that a Conservative government needs to make.
00:04:30.700Pure Poly is doing a really good job, but if too many insiders start jamming red Tories through in these various ridings
00:04:36.760and we end up with a very oddly Liberal Conservative government, then it could stop a lot of the promises from being fulfilled.
00:04:43.660And I'm trying to make sure promises do get fulfilled.
00:04:46.060So if you want to hold the government to account of the new Conservative government, go to my website, wyattclaypool.com, and sign up onto the organizing list.
00:04:56.040But anyways, without further ado, I now want to jump into the tax reform issue.
00:05:02.280The Liberals, obviously, as everyone has seen in the news over the past, like, I guess it's been two months now,
00:05:08.100but it's been a really hot button issue over the past few weeks.
00:05:11.700The Liberals pushing their increased capital gains inclusion rate for anyone making over $250,000 in investments per year.
00:05:19.520They're telling people, well, this only applies to 0.13% of Canadians every single year.
00:05:24.900They do neglect to add in that it applies to a different 0.13% of Canadians every year.
00:05:31.340It's not the top 0.13% of earners because those earners change.
00:05:36.380If you sell a house one year, you might not make more than $100,000 a year.
00:05:41.740But if you sell an investment property that you put a lot of work into, it's easily going to be more than $250,000.
00:05:48.120So that capital gains inclusion rate would then be included in that.
00:05:52.200Also, the 0.13% does not include assets owned by a small business.
00:05:58.260A lot of individual Canadians have a lot of money wrapped up in businesses that they own.
00:06:03.280And when you sell that, that is not included in the 0.13% of Canadians affected by the higher inclusion rate
00:06:09.300when you sell the infrastructure of your business, which is considered an investment.
00:06:14.400So, but the Liberals think that this is a great issue for them.
00:06:17.640It polarizes Canadians against the rich and it makes people vote Liberal in order to oppose those, you know, wealthy, lover, Conservatives.
00:06:26.620I don't even know what their narrative is.
00:06:28.000It's like Conservatives don't hate rich people and I guess that makes, that's a reason to vote Liberal.
00:06:33.200It's funny because actually most rich people vote Liberal because they tend to benefit from a lot of the subsidy programs
00:06:38.780that the Liberals have been putting out because a lot of them own companies that apply for these green slush fund,
00:06:44.300these green slush fund handouts or they work in Bay Street and they get a lot of money off of DEI investments that the government backs.
00:06:52.020But this polling that Angus Reid put out on this issue really demonstrates that the Conservatives actually have more to gain
00:06:58.500by the Liberals pushing this issue than they have to lose.
00:07:02.200So here's what this, like this polling goes over what people think of the capital gains inclusion rate increase.
00:07:08.620It increased from 50% to 66% for any profits over $250,000.
00:07:15.060And with the Conservatives, with the Conservative voter base, only about 8% of their voter base thinks that it was a good idea for the inclusion rate to go up.
00:07:24.200But the problem is, and I want to bring up the statistics I ran on this.
00:07:27.340So it's not really statistics, I just add up all of the opposition from within the Liberal and NDP and block parties.
00:07:34.600So only 8% of Conservatives somewhat or strongly were in favor of the increase.
00:07:38.760But 25% of Liberals are somewhat or very opposed.
00:07:42.70019% of NDP are somewhat or very opposed.
00:07:45.52031% of BQ are somewhat or very opposed.
00:07:48.660This is such a stupid issue for the Liberals to be pushing.
00:07:53.260They seek to lose 25% of their own base to the Conservatives over an issue where they're trying to win only up to 8% of Conservative voters over to their side.
00:08:05.060And this is not going to help the Liberals consolidate NDP votes because the NDP views the exact same rhetoric.
00:08:11.600This is not a unique issue for the Liberals.
00:08:14.200If anything, they're actually kind of stealing this issue from the NDP, who usually is the hating the wealthy party.
00:08:20.460And then the Bloc, they're way ahead in Quebec, but this might be the issue where, because the Bloc refuses to come out and defend small business owners and people who own investment properties and, you know, general practitioners who don't have pensions,
00:08:34.260and so they do a lot of investments, that the Conservatives might end up eating up a lot of votes from the Montreal donut and the Quebec City donut,
00:08:41.880and they're able to flip a bunch of these Quebec suburban ridings.
00:08:44.980This is a perfect scenario for the Conservatives.
00:08:47.920The one little bit of criticism I'll levy at the Conservatives after I take a sip of coffee.
00:08:55.260The one little bit of criticism I will levy at them is that they need to be tougher on this issue.
00:08:59.680Right now, they're being a little bit soft on whether or not they'll actually roll back the capital gains inclusion rate.
00:09:06.120They shouldn't be listening to the Liberal propaganda that if they do that, they're now the rich person's party, and it's going to alienate all the middle class or lower middle class voters.
00:09:16.460Canadians believe everyone's taxed too much, and nobody's going to line up behind the Liberals just because they agree to hate rich people who are the ones who start businesses and employ others.
00:09:25.280Everyone understands that that's how it works.
00:09:27.080So the Conservatives would only gain by coming out overtly and saying that, oh my goodness, scratching my throat, and I do not want to restart this video at this point.
00:09:39.000But if they actually came out and said, we will reverse the capital gains inclusion rate increase back down to 50%,
00:09:43.980or even say we're going to move the entire inclusion rate for profits above and below $250,000 to 45% to make up for the losses some Canadians are going to suffer,
00:09:53.260that would make them wildly more popular.
00:09:55.540They would capture that 25%, that 19%, that 31% from the other parties, whereas they would only risk losing 8%, 7%.
00:10:05.340Even most of the Conservatives who thought this was a good idea, they're only somewhat supportive, and somewhat supportive doesn't really matter.
00:10:12.780That's a voter that this issue doesn't matter to them at all.
00:10:15.860And when you look at those who are strongly opposed in the other parties, it's 9% in the Liberals, it's 8% in the NDP, it's 13% in the Bloc.
00:10:23.320So if you come out strongly against this, you will probably eat up at least a portion of those voters.
00:10:28.780Yes, this is not a hot-blooded issue that moves a lot of votes, but in the areas that matter that the Conservatives need to dig into around the GTA and Montreal, this is a big issue.
00:10:38.020Also Vancouver, any big financial centre, this will help the Conservatives a lot with voters who used to feel comfortable with the Liberals,
00:10:45.200because they worked in downtown financial sectors, and the Liberals tried to be as nice to those people as possible to not alienate them.
00:10:52.340They've alienated all the oil and gas people, people in mining, trades and whatnot, but they've tried to keep the finance people happy.
00:10:59.340So if the Conservatives one-up the Liberals on this and say, actually, we're going to take your finance voters from you, it can happen.
00:11:04.980They just have to be able to, frankly, man up a little bit here and take a strong stance, because if the Conservatives feel like they're constantly focus-grouping things before they take a stance,
00:11:14.900it feels a lot like O'Toole, and it's going to remind people of a party who seems nervous to take strong positions.
00:11:21.160Poliev's great at taking tough positions.
00:11:23.520He needs to make sure his advisors aren't getting in his ear too much to be too cautious,
00:11:28.620because his lack of caution, in a good way, is what actually made him so popular.
00:11:33.280He believes in something, he thinks it's the right thing, he says it, and he takes the stance, and he benefits from that.
00:11:39.140Being too reserved means people think that they almost stop trusting you,
00:11:42.820because you feel like somebody who is artificially coming up with your stances,
00:11:46.860rather than taking the stances because you believe in them, and you're going to definitely move on it once you're in government.
00:11:52.480But anyways, that should be it for me today, guys.
00:11:55.180I just quickly also want to plug the Give, Send, Go legal fund for myself and the National Telegraph.
00:12:00.040We have this dumb lawsuit from a Chinese billionaire suing us for defamation,
00:12:04.960a case where he hasn't even really submitted evidence that we defamed him in over two and a half years.
00:12:10.040Like, his evidence was his LinkedIn account and his company website and his original libel notice,
00:12:15.300none of which actually contained any evidence that we did anything wrong,
00:12:18.740but he's just basically throwing paperwork at us to try and punish a small independent media outlet.
00:12:23.020So if you guys can contribute anything to the Give, Send, Go campaign in the description below,