The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - June 19, 2024


Justin Trudeau's polling hits an embarassing Low!

Hosted by
Wyatt Claypool
Mentioned
Justin Trudeau Angus Reid Rishi Sunak Pure Poly Wyatt Peel
Justin Trudeau's Liberals face plant in new poll! Canada's Worst MP embarrasses himself and the Liberals again

Episode Stats


Length

13 minutes

Words per minute

196.57

Word count

2,660

Sentence count

112

Harmful content

Toxicity

5

sentences flagged

Hate speech

3

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Justin Trudeau's poll numbers continue to plummet, and it's only getting worse. The Liberals are losing ground to the Tories in the polls, and there's no reason to think it won't get worse. In this episode, I talk about why this is happening, and why it's not an accident.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 As it is often said, no matter how bad things currently are, things could always be worse.
00:00:06.520 And when it comes to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, that's his entire life these days.
00:00:11.320 Things get bad, and then they get worse, and then they think things can't get worse, and then they still get worse.
00:00:17.080 And every once in a while, the Liberals polling and Justin Trudeau's approval ratings improve a little bit just to add to the disappointment when five minutes later, they slump yet again to some truly horrifying numbers.
00:00:30.380 So about a week or two ago, we had that Nanos poll that came out that showed that the Liberals were only behind the Conservatives by 12 points, a really bad trail to have for the Liberals that would still be a majority government for the Conservatives by quite a large margin.
00:00:45.580 But that wasn't nearly as bad as what the polls were showing two months ago.
00:00:50.060 But now, after a lot of Liberal commentators came out and said, hey, maybe Justin Trudeau could catch a little momentum right now, things then dropped back down to being minus 20 points, minus 21 points.
00:01:02.420 This new Angus Reid poll shows the Liberals behind the Conservatives by 21 points, but the cherry on top is that the NDP is within the margin of error, only one point behind the Liberals.
00:01:13.900 That is truly an achievement for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, leading a party that was supposed to be the natural governing party of Canada.
00:01:22.480 That's what everyone always says about the Liberals.
00:01:24.520 They basically win elections on easy mode because they win a lot of ridings around the GTA area, the Peel region, Montreal, Vancouver.
00:01:32.380 And then they just have to do a little bit of mop-up work in southern Ontario, the Maritimes, and just winning a couple seats here and there in Manitoba and Alberta, and they can form either a minority or a majority government.
00:01:43.940 The Conservatives always need to be winning the popular vote by a much larger margin because they tend to get stuck in certain parts of the country where it's hard to translate their votes further east or further west into British Columbia.
00:01:55.460 But these days, because Justin Trudeau is just truly that bad of a Prime Minister, his own people are running away from him in a similar fashion to UK voters running away from Rishi Sunak and the UK Tories.
00:02:09.220 It's a government where they're in opposite situations right now.
00:02:13.160 The UK Tories are so useless, nobody wants to vote for them, where the Liberals keep stepping on every rake in front of them.
00:02:18.600 So now their own voters don't really want the embarrassment of having cast another ballot for them and are either going to stay home or vote Conservative. 0.87
00:02:26.040 Even a lot of these polls aren't really showing the NDP benefiting that much from the Liberal falling.
00:02:31.820 And so we also had that poll yesterday I showed that came out from Abacus Data that had the Conservatives up 20 points.
00:02:38.240 And then we even have this one from Ipsos that shows the Conservatives up 18 points, which is an improvement since the last Ipsos poll that showed the Conservatives only ahead by 16.
00:02:47.640 And I want to jump back to the Abacus Data poll because it's truly harrowing for the Liberals just how bad the long-term polling has been for them.
00:02:58.880 Look at this.
00:02:59.760 When you go back to September of 23, the Conservatives had a pretty good lead, 39 to the Liberals' 27.
00:03:06.400 And now it's dropped to the point where, like the poll we just saw now, it's Conservatives 42, Liberals 21.
00:03:12.720 This is not an outlier.
00:03:14.060 This is a trend that has been occurring for more than a year now, that the Liberals have just been turning off their voters left and right, and people just don't really care to show up anymore.
00:03:24.140 I guarantee you, the next election in 2025 is going to be hyper-low turnout.
00:03:28.800 I could see just having 50% turnout because a lot of Liberals are just going to stay home.
00:03:35.340 But now I want to get into some specific issue polling that I believe is going to show that, yes, even after I've just told you this news about the polling, things can get worse for the Liberals.
00:03:47.500 And some of the polling on the issues the Liberals are really pushing right now are proving that they might be doing more harm to themselves than good.
00:03:55.040 But before I get into that, I just quickly want to plug my website, wyattclaypool.com.
00:03:59.940 If you guys want specific recommendations for nomination races in your area, that's provincial nominations, federal nominations, or even just municipal races going on, go sign up there.
00:04:10.400 I take in people's addresses so that I can target specific people on the list and let you know if there's any really good Orthodox Conservatives in your area.
00:04:18.400 I think we need more organizing work from within the Conservative Party to make sure that we don't end up having red Tories sneaking in to strong Conservative ridings 0.93
00:04:26.520 and pumping the brakes on the reforms that a Conservative government needs to make.
00:04:30.700 Pure Poly is doing a really good job, but if too many insiders start jamming red Tories through in these various ridings 0.51
00:04:36.760 and we end up with a very oddly Liberal Conservative government, then it could stop a lot of the promises from being fulfilled.
00:04:43.660 And I'm trying to make sure promises do get fulfilled.
00:04:46.060 So if you want to hold the government to account of the new Conservative government, go to my website, wyattclaypool.com, and sign up onto the organizing list.
00:04:56.040 But anyways, without further ado, I now want to jump into the tax reform issue.
00:05:02.280 The Liberals, obviously, as everyone has seen in the news over the past, like, I guess it's been two months now,
00:05:08.100 but it's been a really hot button issue over the past few weeks.
00:05:11.700 The Liberals pushing their increased capital gains inclusion rate for anyone making over $250,000 in investments per year.
00:05:19.520 They're telling people, well, this only applies to 0.13% of Canadians every single year.
00:05:24.900 They do neglect to add in that it applies to a different 0.13% of Canadians every year.
00:05:31.340 It's not the top 0.13% of earners because those earners change.
00:05:36.380 If you sell a house one year, you might not make more than $100,000 a year.
00:05:41.740 But if you sell an investment property that you put a lot of work into, it's easily going to be more than $250,000.
00:05:48.120 So that capital gains inclusion rate would then be included in that.
00:05:52.200 Also, the 0.13% does not include assets owned by a small business.
00:05:58.260 A lot of individual Canadians have a lot of money wrapped up in businesses that they own.
00:06:03.280 And when you sell that, that is not included in the 0.13% of Canadians affected by the higher inclusion rate
00:06:09.300 when you sell the infrastructure of your business, which is considered an investment.
00:06:14.400 So, but the Liberals think that this is a great issue for them.
00:06:17.640 It polarizes Canadians against the rich and it makes people vote Liberal in order to oppose those, you know, wealthy, lover, Conservatives.
00:06:26.620 I don't even know what their narrative is.
00:06:28.000 It's like Conservatives don't hate rich people and I guess that makes, that's a reason to vote Liberal.
00:06:32.200 I don't know.
00:06:33.200 It's funny because actually most rich people vote Liberal because they tend to benefit from a lot of the subsidy programs
00:06:38.780 that the Liberals have been putting out because a lot of them own companies that apply for these green slush fund,
00:06:44.300 these green slush fund handouts or they work in Bay Street and they get a lot of money off of DEI investments that the government backs.
00:06:52.020 But this polling that Angus Reid put out on this issue really demonstrates that the Conservatives actually have more to gain
00:06:58.500 by the Liberals pushing this issue than they have to lose.
00:07:02.200 So here's what this, like this polling goes over what people think of the capital gains inclusion rate increase.
00:07:08.620 It increased from 50% to 66% for any profits over $250,000.
00:07:15.060 And with the Conservatives, with the Conservative voter base, only about 8% of their voter base thinks that it was a good idea for the inclusion rate to go up.
00:07:24.200 But the problem is, and I want to bring up the statistics I ran on this.
00:07:27.340 So it's not really statistics, I just add up all of the opposition from within the Liberal and NDP and block parties.
00:07:34.600 So only 8% of Conservatives somewhat or strongly were in favor of the increase.
00:07:38.760 But 25% of Liberals are somewhat or very opposed.
00:07:42.700 19% of NDP are somewhat or very opposed.
00:07:45.520 31% of BQ are somewhat or very opposed. 1.00
00:07:48.660 This is such a stupid issue for the Liberals to be pushing. 0.94
00:07:53.260 They seek to lose 25% of their own base to the Conservatives over an issue where they're trying to win only up to 8% of Conservative voters over to their side. 0.99
00:08:05.060 And this is not going to help the Liberals consolidate NDP votes because the NDP views the exact same rhetoric.
00:08:11.600 This is not a unique issue for the Liberals.
00:08:14.200 If anything, they're actually kind of stealing this issue from the NDP, who usually is the hating the wealthy party.
00:08:20.460 And then the Bloc, they're way ahead in Quebec, but this might be the issue where, because the Bloc refuses to come out and defend small business owners and people who own investment properties and, you know, general practitioners who don't have pensions,
00:08:34.260 and so they do a lot of investments, that the Conservatives might end up eating up a lot of votes from the Montreal donut and the Quebec City donut,
00:08:41.880 and they're able to flip a bunch of these Quebec suburban ridings.
00:08:44.980 This is a perfect scenario for the Conservatives.
00:08:47.920 The one little bit of criticism I'll levy at the Conservatives after I take a sip of coffee.
00:08:52.260 I hate when I get dry mouth.
00:08:55.260 The one little bit of criticism I will levy at them is that they need to be tougher on this issue.
00:08:59.680 Right now, they're being a little bit soft on whether or not they'll actually roll back the capital gains inclusion rate.
00:09:06.120 They shouldn't be listening to the Liberal propaganda that if they do that, they're now the rich person's party, and it's going to alienate all the middle class or lower middle class voters.
00:09:15.080 Nobody actually believes that.
00:09:16.460 Canadians believe everyone's taxed too much, and nobody's going to line up behind the Liberals just because they agree to hate rich people who are the ones who start businesses and employ others.
00:09:25.280 Everyone understands that that's how it works.
00:09:27.080 So the Conservatives would only gain by coming out overtly and saying that, oh my goodness, scratching my throat, and I do not want to restart this video at this point.
00:09:39.000 But if they actually came out and said, we will reverse the capital gains inclusion rate increase back down to 50%,
00:09:43.980 or even say we're going to move the entire inclusion rate for profits above and below $250,000 to 45% to make up for the losses some Canadians are going to suffer,
00:09:53.260 that would make them wildly more popular.
00:09:55.540 They would capture that 25%, that 19%, that 31% from the other parties, whereas they would only risk losing 8%, 7%.
00:10:05.340 Even most of the Conservatives who thought this was a good idea, they're only somewhat supportive, and somewhat supportive doesn't really matter.
00:10:12.780 That's a voter that this issue doesn't matter to them at all.
00:10:15.860 And when you look at those who are strongly opposed in the other parties, it's 9% in the Liberals, it's 8% in the NDP, it's 13% in the Bloc.
00:10:23.320 So if you come out strongly against this, you will probably eat up at least a portion of those voters.
00:10:28.780 Yes, this is not a hot-blooded issue that moves a lot of votes, but in the areas that matter that the Conservatives need to dig into around the GTA and Montreal, this is a big issue.
00:10:38.020 Also Vancouver, any big financial centre, this will help the Conservatives a lot with voters who used to feel comfortable with the Liberals,
00:10:45.200 because they worked in downtown financial sectors, and the Liberals tried to be as nice to those people as possible to not alienate them.
00:10:52.340 They've alienated all the oil and gas people, people in mining, trades and whatnot, but they've tried to keep the finance people happy.
00:10:59.340 So if the Conservatives one-up the Liberals on this and say, actually, we're going to take your finance voters from you, it can happen.
00:11:04.980 They just have to be able to, frankly, man up a little bit here and take a strong stance, because if the Conservatives feel like they're constantly focus-grouping things before they take a stance,
00:11:14.900 it feels a lot like O'Toole, and it's going to remind people of a party who seems nervous to take strong positions.
00:11:21.160 Poliev's great at taking tough positions.
00:11:23.520 He needs to make sure his advisors aren't getting in his ear too much to be too cautious,
00:11:28.620 because his lack of caution, in a good way, is what actually made him so popular.
00:11:33.280 He believes in something, he thinks it's the right thing, he says it, and he takes the stance, and he benefits from that.
00:11:39.140 Being too reserved means people think that they almost stop trusting you,
00:11:42.820 because you feel like somebody who is artificially coming up with your stances,
00:11:46.860 rather than taking the stances because you believe in them, and you're going to definitely move on it once you're in government.
00:11:52.480 But anyways, that should be it for me today, guys.
00:11:55.180 I just quickly also want to plug the Give, Send, Go legal fund for myself and the National Telegraph.
00:12:00.040 We have this dumb lawsuit from a Chinese billionaire suing us for defamation, 1.00
00:12:04.960 a case where he hasn't even really submitted evidence that we defamed him in over two and a half years. 0.92
00:12:10.040 Like, his evidence was his LinkedIn account and his company website and his original libel notice,
00:12:15.300 none of which actually contained any evidence that we did anything wrong,
00:12:18.740 but he's just basically throwing paperwork at us to try and punish a small independent media outlet.
00:12:23.020 So if you guys can contribute anything to the Give, Send, Go campaign in the description below,
00:12:27.880 we would, like, highly appreciate it.
00:12:30.480 And again, my website, WyattClaypool.com, is in the description below.
00:12:34.840 Go and sign up on that website if you want my insights into local races.
00:12:38.240 Maybe I end up never emailing you because you're in some part of the country
00:12:41.380 where I don't have to tell you who to vote for because there's a fantastic conservative already there,
00:12:45.720 but it gives me the option for you to reach out and be able to give you guys advice
00:12:50.260 or give you guys insights on races that you maybe want insight on.
00:12:53.940 So you could even email me at Wyatt at WyattClaypool.com,
00:12:57.200 ask about a nomination race in your area,
00:12:59.420 and if I look into it, I could email you and everyone else in that postal code
00:13:02.940 in order to let you know who's the more conservative options
00:13:05.840 and who are kind of the more flaky red Tories.
00:13:08.300 I think people need to get more involved in nominations.
00:13:10.820 I ran in my own nomination, Signal Hill.
00:13:12.660 I was unfairly disqualified, but I'm not going to go home sad.
00:13:16.500 I'm just going to keep fighting to make sure we get the maximum amount of change in this country
00:13:20.380 rather than just going and sitting in the corner
00:13:22.560 because that's what insiders would want me to do,
00:13:25.120 but that's not how I actually behave.
00:13:27.600 Anyways, that's it for me today, guys.
00:13:29.580 Saying it for the second time, I'm sorry.
00:13:31.400 See you later.